Clevelands Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain

Thomas Bier Maxine Goodman Levin College of Urban Affairs Cleveland State University

Cleveland is Affected by Suburban Housing

Inner suburbs have many thousands of low-priced properties. Low-mod will continue to move out (growth in suburban poverty exceeds Cleveland). If just 5% move out, Clevelands population declines.

Suburbanites Are Heading Out

80% move farther out; half to adjacent county. Most moves are to new or newer properties.

Cuyahogas Losses to Adjacent Counties 2004-2009

In
Households 33,000 Persons Income 51,000

Out
48,000 87,000

Net
-15,000 -36,000 -$1.1 b

$1.28 b $2.38 b

36,000 equals a Westlake in five years

 Cuyahoga County is losing middle- and upper-income residents. Many prefer inner locations but lack of renewal pushes them out. Lack on inner renewal and Cuyahogas land situation define the way forward.

Cuyahoga: Ohios First Built-out County

After 200 years of development, Cuyahoga is virtually built-out. Few green fields are left in outer suburbs on which to build tax base.

As Cuyahogas supply of greenfield land has shrunk, development has shifted to adjacent counties*
Cuyahogas Share of 7-County New Housing (units)

1985 2010

44% 20%

*Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina, Portage, Summit

Value of New Residential Construction 1980-2010

1600
Adjacent Counties: Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina, Portage, and Summit

1400

Adjacent Counties
1200
Millions of Dollars

1000 800 600 400 200 0 1980 1985 1990 1995

Year

Cuyahoga
2000 2005 2010

Change in Value of Residential Real Estate

Average Annual, 1985-2010

Cleveland

19 Inner Suburbs

Outer Suburbs

Cuyahoga County Cuyahoga County

Adjacent Counties Adjacent Counties

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Percent (Adj. for inflation)

Change in Value of Commercial Real Estate

Average Annual, 1985-2010

Cleveland

19 Inner Suburbs

Outer Suburbs

Cuyahoga County

Adjacent Counties Adjacent Counties

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Percent (Adj. for inflation)

Change in Value of Industrial Real Estate

Average Annual, 1985-2010
5

Cleveland
4

19 Inner Suburbs
3

Outer Suburbs
2

Cuyahoga County

Adjacent Counties
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Percent (Adj. for inflation)

 Cuyahoga is on the road to shrinking tax base, higher taxes, reduced bond rating while neighboring counties continue to grow.

Cuyahogas decline undermines economic prospects for the region just as Clevelands decline did, but on a larger scale.

No Other Option
To prevent worsening decline, redevelopment and renewal of the countys old core Cleveland and inner suburbs must be a dominant countywide priority.

Redevelopment and renewal have been slight. Why?

Projects need subsidy.
Home rule is taken to mean Its your problem, you fit it fix obsolete real estate, outdated schools, worn-out recreation facilities, dying trees, abandoned buildings, leaking water lines, broken curbs and sidewalks, etc. Most aged places cant fix it; the load its too much, even with the best of leadership.

The Issue is the future of the county: core redevelopment and renewal must
Offset the loss of greenfield development.
Offset real estate depreciation and demolition in the core. Attract residents and businesses to the core.

Offset the Loss of Greenfield Development

Normal 7-county market: 10,000 new homes. Current split: 2,000 in Cuyahoga 8,000 in other six counties. Target split (2032): 5,000 in Cuyahoga 5,000 in other six.

Cuyahoga County Housing Targets

2032 2017

Outer Suburbs 1,500

Inner Suburbs Cleveland Total 1,000 2,500 5,000

1,800
200 500 2,500

Double Downtown Cleveland by 2032 Average 250 units per year Result: population 20,000

Clevelands Future: Gain While Losing

Cleveland will continue to lose low-mod households to suburbs but can gain middle- and upper-income households (< 30 and > 50, no kids). Job growth and immigrants help (but not the fundamental problem, which is lack of core renewal for middle- and upper-income).

The Question
Will the 59 jurisdictions in Cuyahoga County pull together and focus policies, programs and resources on renewing and rebuilding its old core communities?