QMB 3200 Bus & Econ Statistics II

Fall 2011

INSTRUCTOR: John R. Gum, PhD OFFICE: Davis 108-F OFFICE PHONE 727.873.4896 FAX: EMAIL: CLASSROOM TIME 727.873.4291 jrgum@stpt.usf.edu STG 112 Tue. 8:00 10:50

OFFICE HOURS: MONDAY: TUESDAY: 10:50 11:00 & 5:00 5:50 WEDNESDAY: 10:00 10:50 THURSDAY: FRIDAY:
or by appointment

Course Prerequisite: Students must have completed QMB 2100. Course Description: The theory of statistical analysis with heavy emphasis upon the practical application to typical business scenarios. Topics covered include multiple linear regression and model building, design of experiments and analysis of variance (ANOVA), time series analysis, Chi-Square goodness-of-fit tests. Course Objectives: The main objective of this course is to provide students with a working knowledge of the theory and application of statistical analysis to a variety of business situations. The course is approximately 60/40 in regard to computer print-out analysis vs. manual equation manipulation. At the completion of this course students will be able to: 1) Develop and refine decision-making skills by basing decisions upon the outcome of statistical tests. 2) Analyze real world scenarios and determine the appropriate type of analytical problem-solving techniques to utilize. 3) Interpret the results of print-outs (ANOVA, MLR, etc) generated from a selected statistical software program. 4) Understand the reasoning/basis behind each statistical test. 5) Be able to manually solve selected problems. Recommended Text: For Dr. Gums QMB 3200 a spiral bound reduced text taken from Statistics For Business and Economics, Anderson, Sweeney, & Williams Revised 11th Edition. is suggested. Most of the homework comes from the book. However, if you have the complete hardback version

because you had QMB 2100 here at USFSP then you do not need to purchase the spiral bound text. Recommended Tools: We use SPSS, a statistical computer program. SPSS is found on all computers on campus or can be run from your home computers at: APPS.USF.EDU. You can also find the student edition to load onto your home computer from on-line sources or from SPSS. (Homework will be assigned from the above listed text. Computer generated statistical output will be performed using SPSS software. It is the students option to purchase either or both)

GRADING: Letter grades will be assigned as follows:

A = 90-100 B = 80-89 C = 70-79

D = 60-69 F = 59 and below Note that this is not a plus/minus grading system. Exams: There will be 2 in-class non-comprehensive (100 points each) exams. The noncomprehensive exams are timed exams lasting 1.5 hours each. Also, an optional 200 point comprehensive final exam (3 hours) will complete the evaluation process. The final exam will be averaged with the two mandatory exams (it does not replace) should you decide to take the final. No makeup exam will be given during the semester unless approved prior to the test date. An unexcused absence will result in a score of 0. If a makeup exam is granted, an automatic reduction of 5% results (if a make-up exam is granted, it must be taken prior to the next regularly scheduled class). Professional Behavior: Professional behavior is expected at all times. During class meetings, all cell phones, pagers, and electronic devices must be turned off or muted. Should an emergency situation arise where a call must be answered, quietly exit the room and conduct the call in the hallway. Disruptive behaviors will not be tolerated and includes excessive talking and repeatedly arriving/leaving early. A warning will be given for the first offense. Tentative Course Outline: Week 1 - 4 Week 5 - 6 Review of Simple Linear Regression, Multiple Linear Regression, and Model Building. Time Series Analysis. Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Time-Series Seasonal Analysis.

Week 7 Week 8 - 11 Week 12 - 13 Week 14 Week 15 Week 15

EXAM 1 Experimental Design and Analysis of Variance. One Factor Analysis, and Factorial Design. Chi-Square & Chi-Square Goodness-OF-Fit Tests. EXAM 2, Decision Analysis. Decision making under certainty, risk and Uncertainty, and expected monetary and utility theory. FINAL EXAM

Note: The material to be covered each week is not listed due to the fact that the pace of each class differs based upon a variety of factors. ATTENDANCE: Although attendance will be recorded, no direct influence will be placed on your final grade due to attendance. Missed material will be your responsibility to retrieve. It should be noted that it will be to your advantage to attend class regularly, since the bulk of the test material will be derived from classroom lectures.

University Policies and Information: Academic Dishonesty: Academic dishonesty will not be tolerated and includes, but is not necessarily limited to the following: [1] Copying another students work on an exam, [2] using unauthorized materials during an exam (e.g. cheat sheets, open books), [3] Copying another students outside assignments, and [4] Failure to give proper credit to another individuals ideas or published works. Because of the Universitys commitment to academic integrity, plagiarism or cheating on course work or on examinations will result in penalties that may include a grade of F for the specific exam or course work and a grade of F or FF for the course. Any incident of academic dishonesty will be reported to the dean of the college. Definitions and punishment guidelines for Plagiarism, Cheating, and Student Disruption of the Academic Process may be found at the USF website: (Academic Dishonesty and Disruption of Academic Process) www.ugs.usf.edu/catalogs/0304/adadap.htm.
Students with Disabilities:

Please notify your instructor during the first two weeks of class if you have a learning disability or require special assistance with this course. Confidential personal and learning assistance counseling are made available to students through the Division of Student Affairs. Contact R. Barry McDowell (mcdowell@stpt.usf.edu) for more information.

Religious Holidays: Students who must miss an examination due to a religious holiday should notify the instructor during the first week of class. Key Leadership Skill(s) and Perspectives Addressed in This Course:
Interpersonal and Communication Skills Analytical and Critical Thinking Skills Information Technology Skills Reflective Thinking and Experiential Learning Ethical and Social Consciousness Multicultural Competence

X-a

X-b

X-c

X-d

X-e

a Students will be expected to verbalize their findings in-class and to explain their findings and recommendations in writing on exams. b Students will utilize equations as well as interpreting the results obtained from statistical software packages. c Students will utilize SPSS (a statistical software package). d The focus during the entire course is the application of statistics to business situations. Also, the students will determine (with approval) the area of their project and then communicate (written) their findings and recommendations. e Throughout the course, the consequences of misleading or altering data and or results will be examined and discussed. Interpersonal and Communication: A factor that hinders many individuals in the business world today from utilizing statistics is the ability to communicate the results of a statistical analysis in everyday language. The project for this course will help you to practice this skill as well as the requirement of having to explain in written form your analysis of computer print-outs. Also, you will have to answer in a written statement your answers derived from manually working equations. Analytical and critical thinking: The study of applied statistics intuitively requires you to utilize multiple quantitative problem solving algorithms. However, this course will also require each student to analyze problems as to what type of data distribution best fits the problem as well as what the students recommendation for subsequent action based upon the results of the analysis. Information Technology: The use of SPSS a statistical software package will illustrate the concepts covered in this course. The software package will be used for verification of the answers obtained from manually working homework problems as well as having to interpret print-outs for multiple linear regression and ANOVA on exams. Also, the use of the software is required in the project due at the end of the semester. Reflective Thinking and Experiential learning: The focus of this course is the practical application of statistics to business problems. The determination of what type

of analysis and the subsequent application of the results will require each student to ponder the outcomes of their decisions. Ethical and Social Consciousness: The moral and ethical reporting of analysis results will be discussed periodically as warranted. The students responsibility and accountability to provide correct and unbiased analysis will also be discussed.