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Background Briefing: Vietnam: U.S. Policy on Human Rights and Arms Sales Carlyle A. Thayer January 22, 2012

[clientnamedeleted] Q1.InlightofVietnameseeffortstomodernizethemilitary,asyoumentionedinthis paper, what does it mean for Hanoi now that McCain has listed human rights improvementsasastipulationtoreceivingAmericanarms? ANSWER: Senator McCains comments only confirm U.S. policy that is on record from20102011.SenatorMcCainscommentsalsoindicatethattheSenate/Congress wouldblockanyattemptsbytheAdministrationtochangepresentpolicy. In2010,onthefifteenthanniversaryofthenormalizationofU.S.Vietnamrelations, the U.S. Ambassador appeared on Vietnamese national television. When he was askedaboutfuturedefensecooperation,AmbassadorMichaelMichalakstatedthat therewouldbenofurtherprogressuntilVietnamimproveditshumanrightsrecord. More recently, last November, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also singled out human rights abuses in Vietnam as an impediment to improved bilateral relations. Clinton stated, "We have made it clear to Vietnam that if we are to develop a strategicpartnership,asbothnationsdesire,Vietnammustdomoretorespectand protectitscitizens'rights. TherearetwoaspectstoconsiderregardingVietnamsdefencewishlist.Thefirstis the view that Vietnam is mainly motivated by the desire to end what it views as discriminatorytreatment,thatis,U.S.restrictionsondefencesales.Thesecondview isthatVietnamiskeentoacquiresparepartsforitsstockofcapturedVietnamWar era U.S. equipments such as M113 APCs and Huey helicopters. Vietnam was also reported to be in the market for maritime surveillance aircraft and coastal radar. Vietnam subsequently bought Canadian maritime surveillance aircraft and three VerapassiveradiolocatorairdefencesystemproducedbytheCzechRepublic. Ihavewrittenelsewhere:
InearlyDecember2009,theVietnamPeoplesArmyNavysignedacontracttoacquire sixDHC6TwinOtterSeries400aircraftfromVikingAirofCanada.Deliveryisexpected withtwelvetoeighteenmonths. The Series 400 aircraft will be used in a maritime patrol role by Vietnams newly established naval air wing. This sale represents the first time Vietnams Ministry of NationalDefencehasacquiredawesternbuiltfixedwingaircraft

2 ThecurrentVietnamesewishlistaddsanewdimensionbecauseitincludesspecific defensiveitemsnotmentionedinpublicreports(antiaircraftgunsandradar). Q2,WillthelackofAmericanarmshinderVietnam'seffortstoassertitselfintheS China Sea, or could Hanoi get these weapons somewhere else such as Russia or India?WillthisfurtherhinderbilateralcooperationbetweentheUSandVietnam? ANSWER: Vietnam will continue to rely mainly on Russia but also Ukraine, Czech Republicandothercountrieswithsimilartechnology(seechartbelow)asthesource for most of its equipment. India has not played a major role in arms sales so far. VietnamhasalreadytakendeliveryofseveralbatteriesoftheRussianS300PMU1 airdefencesystem,reputedlythebestsystemtodeallongrangeairthreats. Bilateraldefencerelationshaventreallyprogressedmuchbeyondnavalportvisits, navalexchangeactivities(belowthelevelofnavalexercises),andstrategicdialogue atdeputyministeriallevel.VietnamisstillholdingoutformoreU.S.fundingtoclean up Agent Orange hot spots. There is no reason why bilateral defence relations cannot continue on their slow upward trajectory without arms sales. But clearly Vietnam will react to U.S. human rights pressures by slowing the pace of defence cooperationGiventhatbothsideswantsomethingfromthedefencerelationsitisa question of who blinks first. Military technology and arms sales would represent a quantumleapforwardinbilateraldefencerelations. MajorArmsSupplierstoVietnam,200310 (inUSmillion)
Country Romania Germany Poland Czech Ukraine Russia Total 2003 20 8 28 2004 294 294 2005 8 14 26 16 264 328 2006 26 18 44 2007 2 2 2008 13 153 166 2009 3 63 66 2010 10 505 515 Total 3 8 14 46 65 1307 1443

Source: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Arms Transfers Database, Vietnam, http://milexdata.sipri.org/result.php4.

Q3.Finally,isthereanypossibilitythat,facingthissortofdirectpressurefrom Washington,Vietnam'shumanrightssituationwillactuallyimprove? ANSWER:Vietnamscontinuedcrackdownonprodemocracyactivistshascontinued after the reelection of Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung earlier this year. Earlier admonitions by Ambassador Michalak and Secretary Clinton not seem to have

3 carried much weight. I am inserting below an opinion piece I wrote recently. The operative paragraph in terms of your question is the last one. If Vietnam wants something form the U.S. badly enough, say a highlevel visit and meeting at The White House, it will make concessions by releasing one or two highprofile dissidents. Hereisanextractfrommyopinionpiece(itwaspostedonScribd.com): Vietnams [current] crackdown also coincided with increased tensions between China and Vietnam over South China Sea issues. These two issues human rights and the South China Sea and the tenor of future U.S.Vietnam relations are highlightedintheegregiouscaseofBuiThiMinhHang. FourhypothesescouldbeadvancedaboutwhyBuiThiMinhHangwasarrestedand treatedsoharshly. First, Mrs. Minh Hang was sentenced to two years detention in a labour camp becauseVietnamismakinggoodonitspromisetoChinatosteerpublicopinionon matters affecting their bilateral relationship. This was the agreement reached on June25,2010byVietnamsspecialenvoytoBeijing. Second, Mrs. Minh Hang was arrested because Hanoi officials calculated that the U.S.desiretostepupengagementwithVietnamtocounterChinaintheSouthChina Sea would override their concerns about human rights abuses. In this case, the sternwarningissuedbytheU.S.EmbassyovertheMinhHangcasewasjustaslap onthewrist. ThethirdhypothesisarguesthatMrs.MinhHangwasarrestedbecauseVietnamese leaders are concerned about the impact of three issues on domestic political stability:thestateofVietnamseconomy,politicalunrestinChinaandthepotential impact of the Arab Spring. Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung is not a supporter of political reform or the protection of human rights. He has a close ally in former MinisterofPublicSecurity,LeHongAnh,whoisnowheadofthepartysSecretariat. BothsupportacrackdownonindependentvoicesinVietnam. ThefourthhypothesisisthatMrs.MinhHanghasanalreadyestablishedrecordasa politicalactivist.HumanRightsWatchreportsthatshewasdetainedonatleastfour occasionsinthepastsixmonths.PhotographsandvideoclipsofMrs.MinhHangat antiChina protests show she wasno shrinking violet. If Vietnamese public security authorities followed their standard operating procedures, Mrs. Minh Hang would have been warned on each and every occasion to desist from public protests. Pressure would have been brought to bear on her family and friends to pressure MinhHangtostopprotesting.YetMrs.MinhHangcontinued,mostrecentlyinlate November last year, by participating in a silent protest in Ho Chi Minh City. VietnamesesecurityauthoritiesarenottolerantatthebestoftimesandMrs.Minh Hangrepeatedrecalcitrancewouldhavebeenviewedasadirectchallengetotheir authority. Indeed, officials higher up would have been galled by the inability of securityofficialstosilenceMrs.MinhHang. Mrs. Minh Hangs case is sensitive because she could not be slapped with the standard charge of conducting propaganda against the state. Mrs. Minh Hangs protestsaboutChinasactionsintheEastSeahavewidespreadandinfluentialpublic

4 supportinVietnam.Soshewasbundledoffunderadetentionorderissuedbythe Hanoimunicipalauthoritiesandsenttoadrugrehabilitationcamptoundergotwo yearsofhardlaborandreeducation. U.S.Vietnamnegotiationsonastrategicpartnershipdeclarationhitasnaglastyear whentheUnitedStateswantedhumanrightstobelistedunderaseparateheading. Vietnam insisted that human rights be tucked under another heading, such as politicalrelations. HowbadlydoesVietnamwantaformaldeclarationofstrategicpartnershipwiththe United States? If the declaration is reallystalled then it isbad news for Mrs. Minh Hang. Vietnamcanaffordtowaitand cuthersentencewhenthetime isrightand someadvantagecanbegained. HowmanysternwarningsoverhumanrightsabusesdoestheUnitedStateshaveto issuebeforeitsappliessomerealpressureonHanoi?IftheUnitedStateshopesto usetheSouthChinaSeaissuetostepupengagementwithVietnam,itisbadnews for Mrs. Minh Hang. And if Vietnams relations with China continue to warm, it is alsobadnewsforMrs.MinhHangbecausetheU.S.willhavelessleverage. However, if Vietnam really wants a declaration on strategic partnership with the UnitedStates(forbargainingpurposeswithChina)andiftheU.S.standsfirmonits supportforhumanrightsandappliespressure,thentheremightbegoodnewsfor MinhHangbeforehertwoyearsindetentioncomestoanend.Mrs.MinhHangis notalone,however,andotheractivistsarestillincarceratedforspeakingout.