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Control Systems Methods in Finance: Modeling and optimal Trading in financial Markets. Despite having control underpinnings, control systems theory, methods, and tools are not widely taught as part of Quantitative Finance or financial engineering curriculums. There is a huge opportunity for that to change if the control systems community is willing to educate itself regarding financial engineering.
Control Systems Methods in Finance: Modeling and optimal Trading in financial Markets. Despite having control underpinnings, control systems theory, methods, and tools are not widely taught as part of Quantitative Finance or financial engineering curriculums. There is a huge opportunity for that to change if the control systems community is willing to educate itself regarding financial engineering.
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Control Systems Methods in Finance: Modeling and optimal Trading in financial Markets. Despite having control underpinnings, control systems theory, methods, and tools are not widely taught as part of Quantitative Finance or financial engineering curriculums. There is a huge opportunity for that to change if the control systems community is willing to educate itself regarding financial engineering.
Copyright:
Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
Formati disponibili
Scarica in formato PDF, TXT o leggi online su Scribd
James A. Primbs Management Science and Engineering Stanford University ACC 2010 Baltimore, MD June 30, 2010 Introduction Outline Future Outlook Modeling Market Dynamics Optimal Trading in Financial Market Important Early Developments in Quantitative Finance 1964: William Sharpe publishes the Capital Asset Pricing Model. (Lintner, Mossin, and Treynor independently discover the same theory). 1955: Harry Markowitz develops mean-variance portfolio optimization in a single period framework in his PhD thesis from University of Chicago. Quantitative finance is born. 1969+: Samuelson (69) and especially Merton (69,71,73) publish dynamic portfolio optimization work using control theory and dynamic programming. 1973: Black and Scholes (with input from Merton) publish the seminal paper on option pricing theory that shows that dynamic strategies can be used to create options. Option pricing theory takes off and quantitative finance is here to stay. Where is Control Engineering for Finance Now? It has been nearly 40 years since dynamic methods were prominently introduced into finance. However, despite having control underpinnings, control systems theory, methods, and tools are not widely taught as part of quantitative finance or financial engineering curriculums. There is a huge opportunity for that to change if the control systems community is willing to educate itself regarding financial engineering. In this talk, we will take a high level look at two opportunities for the control systems community Introduction Outline Future Outlook Modeling Market Dynamics Optimal Trading in Financial Markets Control Problems in Finance Most of the standard financial engineering problems can be cast in a stochastic optimal control framework. What is the dynamics? Stochastic differential/difference equation models of stock price movement. SdZ Sdt dS o + = rBdt dB = Example: Control Problems in Finance What can we control? We control what we hold in our portfolio and this determines our wealth dynamics. Most of the standard financial engineering problems can be cast in a stochastic optimal control framework. ) ( rSdt dS u rWdt dW + = How many shares do you want? SdZ Sdt dS o + = rBdt dB = Example: Control Problems in Finance Most of the standard financial engineering problems can be cast in a stochastic optimal control framework. ) ( rSdt dS u rWdt dW + = SdZ Sdt dS o + = rBdt dB = Example: Stochastic System Dynamics Things can quickly get more complicated: Transaction Costs Margin Constraints Liquidity Constraints Market Impact Control Problems in Finance What is the objective? Portfolio Optimization: Maximize the utility of wealth. ))] ( ( [ max T W U E u Who uses this: Assets Management Firms, Hedge Funds, Investment Advisors. All of us! (Think about your retirement account!) Most of the standard financial engineering problems can be cast in a stochastic optimal control framework. 1. Grow Wealth Control Problems in Finance What is the objective? Dynamic Hedging: Minimize the difference between wealth and a payoff at a specified time T. | | 2 ) ) ( ( min payoff T W E u
Who uses this: Investment Banks (Option Pricing, Risk Management),
Hedge Funds (Statistical Arbitrage). Most of the standard financial engineering problems can be cast in a stochastic optimal control framework. 2. Replicate a payoff Control Problems in Finance What is the objective? Index Tracking: Minimize the tracking error between your wealth and a pre-specified index such as the S&P 500. (
0 2 )) ( ) ( ( min dt t I t W e E t u
Who uses this: Asset Management Firms (variations such as beat a
benchmark index), ETFs. Most of the standard financial engineering problems can be cast in a stochastic optimal control framework. 3. Track an index What are the challenges and opportunities for control engineers? Bottom line: Do what we already do, just tailor it to financial engineering applications. Create practical, engineering oriented solutions to real financial engineering problems. Handle transaction costs and constraints Efficient algorithms for large problems sizes. Examples: Introduction Outline Future Outlook Modeling Market Dynamics Optimal Trading in Financial Market Financial Market Dynamics Price dynamics results from the interaction of many traders using a variety of strategies and objectives. Lots of feedback loops! To understand such a system, one must understand feedback. That is what we know best Market Financial Institutions Funds Individuals Government Regulation Motivating Example 1 87 Stock Market Crash -0.25 -0.2 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 8 / 3 / 1 9 8 7 8 / 1 2 / 1 9 8 7 8 / 2 1 / 1 9 8 7 9 / 1 / 1 9 8 7 9 / 1 1 / 1 9 8 7 9 / 2 2 / 1 9 8 7 1 0 / 1 / 1 9 8 7 1 0 / 1 2 / 1 9 8 7 1 0 / 2 1 / 1 9 8 7 1 0 / 3 0 / 1 9 8 7 1 1 / 1 0 / 1 9 8 7 1 1 / 1 9 / 1 9 8 7 1 2 / 1 / 1 9 8 7 1 2 / 1 0 / 1 9 8 7 1 2 / 2 1 / 1 9 8 7 Returns Returns 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 8 / 3 / 1 9 8 7 8 / 1 1 / 1 9 8 7 8 / 1 9 / 1 9 8 7 8 / 2 7 / 1 9 8 7 9 / 4 / 1 9 8 7 9 / 1 5 / 1 9 8 7 9 / 2 3 / 1 9 8 7 1 0 / 1 / 1 9 8 7 1 0 / 9 / 1 9 8 7 1 0 / 1 9 / 1 9 8 7 1 0 / 2 7 / 1 9 8 7 1 1 / 4 / 1 9 8 7 1 1 / 1 2 / 1 9 8 7 1 1 / 2 0 / 1 9 8 7 1 2 / 1 / 1 9 8 7 1 2 / 9 / 1 9 8 7 1 2 / 1 7 / 1 9 8 7 1 2 / 2 8 / 1 9 8 7 Stock Prices DJI The Dow Jones Industrial Average Drops over 500 points (more than 22%) in a single day! There is no apparent fundamental reason for the crash. What happened? The finger is pointed at feedback effects from so called portfolio insurance ideas. (See the Brady Commission Presidential Report.) Crash! Motivating Example 2 Stock Pinning Stocks on options with high open interest can become pinned to the strike price at expiration. Why does this happen? One explanation: Feedback effects from Black-Scholes option pricing theory based dynamic hedging strategies are responsible. See Avellaneda and Lipkin (03), Primbs and Rathinam (09). Strike Price Stock Path Motivating Example 3 August 2007 Hedge Fund Unwinding See What Happened to the Quants in August 2007? by Khandani and Lo (07). The price impact of the unwind causes other hedge funds to de-leverage which exacerbates losses. Top quant hedge funds lose big: Renaissance loses 8.7% in first 10 days of August. Highbridge drops 18%. Tykhe is down 20%. Note: Nothing unusual in overall market during that time. Losses were narrowly confined to model driven long/short market neutral strategies. Could a control systems/feedbacks analysis explain and even have predicted this? What happened: The rapid unwinding of one or more quantitative market neutral portfolios ripples through the entire quant hedge fund industry. Long Short Feedback Phenomena Lots of interesting feedback phenomena occurring in the market! Control and systems perspective can help to understand, explain, and perhaps even predict and mitigate phenomena. 1. Volatility Clustering 2. Heavy Tail Distributions 3. Volatility Smile and Smirks 4. 1000 point drop in 2010. 5. Etc Theres more! Introduction Outline Future Outlook Modeling Market Dynamics Optimal Trading in Financial Market Looking to the Future Control and systems engineering can become a major tool for the design, optimal management, and understanding of financial systems. Lots of interesting problems that have not been explored from the control perspective. We have the tools to address real problems whose impact is felt on a global scale. An exciting opportunity!