Journa l of S cienti c E xp loration , Vo l. 12 , N o. 3 , pp .

42 54 54, 199 8

0892-3 310/98 199 8 So ciety for Scien ti c E x ploration

F ieldREG II: Consciou sness Field Effects: Replication s an d Exploratio ns

R. D. N E L SO N , R. G. J A H N , B. J. D U N N E , Y. H. D O B Y N S , G. J. B R A D IS H

AN D

Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research, School of Engineering/Applied Science Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544

A bstract Based on form al analysis of 18 exploratory applications, 12 of w hich have been reported previously, a testable general hypothesis for FieldREG experim ents has been postulated, nam ely t hat data taken in environm ents fostering relatively intense or profound subjective resonance will show larger deviations of the m ean relative to chance expectation than t hose generated in m ore pragm atic assemblies. T he 61 subsequent FieldRE G applications reported here com prise 21 hypothesis-based formal replications, along with 40 further explorations designed to learn m ore about the circum stances t hat favor anom alous deviations. T he results of t he formal replications strongly confirm t he general hypothesis, yielding a com posite probability against chance for the resonant subset of 2.2 10 - 6 com pared to 0.9 1 for t he m undane subset. The exploratory w ork suggests other venues in w hich anom alous effects of group consciousness can be expected, and also identifies a num ber of situations that do not appear to be conducive to such responses. Keywords: hum an/machine interactions engineering anom alies research group consciousness resonance random event generator inform ation-fields

1. Introduction T his pa per sum m arizes t he status as of June, 1997, of an ong oing investigation of rando m event generator (R E G ) anom alies associated with hum an consciousness t hat m ay be indicative of som et hing like a consciousness field, w hereby particular states of group consciousness m ay be m anifested in sm all but significant chang es in sensitive physical system s. E arlier experim ental evidence for direct influence of ind ividua l intention on the statistical distributions of physical rando m events has been docum ented in num erous research articles and m eta-analyses (Radin & N elson, 198 9; Jahn et al., 1997; D obyns & N elson, 1997; Jahn, D un ne, and N elson, 1987; N elson et al., 1991). W hile t he effects in t hese experim ents are statistically robu st, t hey resist explanation via canonical scientific m odels, and have lead us to pro po se broader interpretations that explicitly acknow ledge t he involve m ent of subjective aspects of consciousness in objective physical processes (Jahn & D unne, 19 97). T hese experim ents also indicated t hat som e environm ental factors and subjective reactions app arently w ere reflected in unusual trend s in t he data. To pursue suc h correlations furt her, a labor atory-based experim ent called 425

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R. D . N elson et al.

C ontR E G w as dev eloped to record an inde xed, continuously running data sequence, w it h a facility to m ark the beginn ing of eve nts such as visitor dem onstrations, or sm all m eeting s in t he im m ediate env ironm ent of the device. T his in turn led to t he developm ent of fully portable FieldRE G equipm ent allowing acquisition of data in a broader rang e of environm ents. U sing sim ilar equipm ent and protoc ols, t he exp erim ents w ere t hen extended to address t he question w het her, und er certain circum stances, gr oups of pe ople m ay also exert anom alou s influences on t he behavior of RE G de vices, even in t he absence of directed conscious attention . A s described in a prior article (N elson et al., 1996 ), this speculation w as supp orted em pirically, thereby broadening t he rang e of possible t heoretical interpretations, and im pe lling furthe r basic expe rim entation. In that paper it w as noted that t he nam e F ieldR E G is a double entendre: i.e., t he device is deployed in field experim ents, but also appe ars to respond to chang es in a consciousness field of t he sort t hat has been proposed in a variety of different contexts by scholars from seve ral disciplines (Basham , 1959 ; D urkheim , 19 61; Jam es, 19 77; Sheldrake, 198 1). T he concept of such a consciousne ss field is also consistent with the inform al testim ony of several of ou r laboratory ope rators, w ho speak of achieving a state of resonance w ith t he device during successful o pe ration. It also m ay be related to t he larger effect sizes fou nd in laboratory-based exp erim ents using bon ded co-operator pairs (D unn e, 199 1). Conceptually sim ilar, indepe nd ent w ork by Radin and others also has i ndicated t hat the nom inally random outpu t of w ell-calibrated R E G s m ay be affected by group consciousness (Radi n et al., 1996; B ierm an, 1996; R adin, 1997 ). O ur prior FieldRE G da ta can be divided into tw o categories: one t hat displays consistent statistical evide nce for anom alous effects, and an ot her that produces few significant deviations. O n t he basis of t his em pirical division, a discrim inating hypothesis for replication experim ents can be proposed. In this pape r w e will review t he earlier experim ents leading to that hypothesis, and describe a set of confirm atory expe rim ents, as w ell as a new set of expl oratory stud ies t ha t suggest further hy pot hesis-driven applications in the future. 2. Eq uipm ent and Procedure T he F ieldR E G system s consist of either a portable RE G and a notebook com puter wit h app ro priate softw are, or a m icro-portable RE G interfacing with a pa lm top com puter. M ore detailed descriptions of t hese are available in previous reports (N elson et al., 19 96; N elson, Br adish, and D obyn s, 19 92). T he data consist of 200 -bit trials generated and accum ulated continuou sly at approxim ately one trial per second , with a tim e-stam ped inde x identifying scheduled or unscheduled periods of particula r interest. T he protocol for F ieldRE G expe rim ents requires specification of a venue of interest and a predefined criterion for selection of tem por al segm ents to serve as sam ples w herein t he hypot hesized or predicted anom alous deviations are to be sough t. For exam ple, if an academ ic convention w ere t he ve nue, t he indi-

FieldRE G II: Consciousness Field E ffects

427

vidu al presentations in plenary sessions m igh t be spe cified as t he data set of interest. In a sm all group m eeting with no readily identified presentations, sessions or m eeting days m igh t be used as t he tem poral unit for da ta acquisition. O bviously t hese specification s m ust be m ade prior to the data acquisition or analysis. (In a nu m ber of the early exploratory applications t his prior specification w as n ot m ade, and an a posteriori statistical adjustm ent for m ultiple analysis possibilities w as required.) G iven t he specifications, t he da ta seg m ents are identified using tim e-stam ped index m arks registered via t he com puter s appropriately program m ed F-keys, in conjunction wit h onsite notes taken by t he experim enter or operator of the equipm ent. For exam ple, at football gam es, ind ividua l ke ys m ay be set to i nd icate t he beginning of a hom e team drive , a first dow n, a tou chd ow n, etc., t hus allow ing precise identification of t hose segm ents of t he data stream correspo nding to tim e pe riods of interest in t he application. In ot her cases, sim ple begin and end m arks suffice to identify the appr opriate data. T he analysis begins wit h the identification and extraction of those data seg m ents correspond ing to t he m arked tim es of interest. T he m ean deviation s of all segm ents t hen are calculated and norm alized as Z-scores. T he analysis for m ost of the data is based on a sum of t he squared Z-scores across all t he seg m ents, w hich is a c 2 distributed quantity. T his is form ally a variance m easure; it quantifies t he variability of the m eans of t he active data segm ents. It should not be confused with t he distribution variance for raw da ta or for arbitrarily defined runs of data; t hese m easures are sim ilar but not equivalent to our segm ent variance m easure. Since t he segm ent leng t hs are represented in t he Zscores, t his sum is n ot otherwise w eigh ted. T he num ber of segm ents defines t he degrees of freedom , and a probability for the accum ulated deviation wit hin t he application is calculated from the corresponding distribution. S ince c 2 distributed qua ntities are additive, t he results for separate applications can be sum m ed within and across categories to yield an ove rall statistic representing t he data subset of interest. For som e of the early app lications, t he analysis w as done prior to t he developm ent of the c 2 -based procedures, and an extrem e score assessm ent w as used. In t his appr oach, t he identified segm ents are exam ined to find t he m ost extrem e deviation, and its intrinsic probability is adjusted using t he Bonferroni inequality. T his results in a probability (p B ) that is typically conservative because it doe s n ot include contributions from other deviant, but less extrem e segm ents. To incorporate these older results into the present analysis, t he equivalent c 2 is calculated as S - 2 ln p B , w hich has tw o degrees of freedom . A lthough our prim ary analysis of FieldRE G data is based on a com parison of em pirical results against t heoretical expe ctation , a kind of control data can be derived in m any cases from segm ents acquired before, after, and interspersed betw een t he active portions. T hese on-line control data are assessed using a resam pling procedure t hat com putes c 2 values from rando m ly placed segm ents corresponding in num ber and size to t hose of t he active data. O ur

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standa rd analysis repe ats t his resam pling process 1 00 0 tim es to establish a distribution of va riation s from chance expectation. To check and confirm t he probability associated with the pr im ary c 2 calculated for the active experim ental data, it is com pa red wit h t he pr oportion of the resam pled c 2 va lues t hat exceed it. A not her check is m ade by calculating a Bonferroni-corrected proba bility for the m ost extrem e individual active data segm ent. Bot h of these m et hods yield values t hat typ ically are in go od agreem ent with t he prim ary calculation. T he resam pling process also enable s t he com putation of an adjusted c 2 t hat reflects t he pa ram eters of t he resam pling distribution. T hese adjusted values are found to vary around t he t heoretically based calculations as expected, indicating t hat t he fluctuations in overall control segm ent variance are random . G iven t he conform ance of the control data to chance expectation, w e report only t he c 2 and probabilities for the active data referred to theoretical predictions (cf. A ppendix for details).

3. Venues for O riginal FieldREG Applications A. Venu es Showing FieldREG Effects (cf. Tab le 1a) 1. Sm all Groups T he earliest FieldRE G applications w ere in sm all, intim ate m eeting s of t he D irect M ental and H eali ng Interaction s (D M H I) group and t he International Consciousness Research L aboratory (IC RL ) ensem ble. Bot h of these gr oups hold regular m eetings of professional researchers w ho know each ot her w ell and w ho enjoy intense, on go ing discussions of consciousne ss-related research issues. T hese first applications w ere ana lyzed using t he Bonferroni-adjusted extrem e va lue procedu re, w hile later m eeting s of the groups w ere assessed wit h t he c 2 algorithm . T he data segm ents chosen for the latter analyses con sisted of individual presentations by t he participants, alt hou gh since bot h groups have a high ly flexible and dynam ic character, som e ot her segm entation rule, for exam ple, by sessions or days, m igh t have been m ore appro pr iate. 2. Group Rituals A m em ber of a C ove nant of U nitarian U niversalist P agans (CU U P S) expressed interest in t he F ieldR E G w or k and the possibility t hat t heir group m eetings, devoted to pa rticipatory rituals, m ight be a prom ising venue. A battery-pow ered portable system w as taken to a series of m eeting s and t he beginning and ending of the actual ritual noted, along with som e indication of t he ritual s m eaning or intent, e.g., a S abbat, a Beltane, t he F ull M oon, etc. Tw o groups of such data w ere includ ed in t he original F ieldR E G database and bot h show ed significant ind ications of anom alou s deviation.

FieldRE G II: Consciousness Field E ffects

TA BLE 1a O riginal F ieldR E G A p plications S howing An om alous Results Ven ue S mall G rou ps D M HI * D M HI * IC RL * IC RL* IC RL A ll S mall G rou ps G rou p Rituals CU U P S P agan Circle* CUU P S P agan Circle* Sh am an, D evils Tow er A ll G ro up Rituals Sa cred Sites D evils Tow er Tour Wound ed K nee A ll S acred S ites M usi c/T heater H um or Con vention * Ch arism atic E vent A cadem y, on Ritual* Pred ict Eff ect, Total Da te D ec 9 3 D ec 9 4 M ar 94 D ec 9 4 M ay 95 N-Trials 10 00 00 10 00 00 300 00 300 00 293 20 2893 20 250 00 350 00 12 58 612 58 4310 99 85 142 95 250 00 600 00 44 98 73

429

df 2 2 2 2 4 12 6 9 1 16 7 6 13 20 2 63

p .02 7 .05 4 .16 1 .31 5 .2 67 .01 9 .05 0 .01 3 .00 55 .00 05 2 .03 9 .13 7 .02 7 .00 7 .00 60 1.08 10
- 7

E ffect .00 61 .00 51 .00 57 .00 28 .00 36 .00 39 .010 4 .01 19 .07 17 .01 32 .02 68 .010 9 .01 61 .04 91 .010 3 .00 77

7.22 4 5.83 8 3.65 3 2.31 5 5.20 9 24 .23 9 1 2.60 4 20 .90 1 7.70 1 41 .20 6 1 4.79 2 9.73 0 2 4.52 2 3 8.99 5 10.37 0 13 9.33 2

9 3, 94 9 4, 95 O ct 94

O ct 94 O ct 94

A pr 95 July 94

* Included in previously pub lished F ieldREG database. The n um ber of trials is an estim ate of the fu ll database size.

In another context, a Shoshon e m edicine m an m et one experim enter and t hree ot her peo ple at t he D evils (sic) Tow er m onum ent in W yom ing to visit t he sacred site and to perform a ritual healing cerem ony. H is special interest is in t he preservation of places considered sacred by t he N ative A m erican tribes, and he designed the ritual to serve t hat end. A lt hough he w as aw are of t he FieldRE G research project, he regarded it as pe ripheral to the pr im ary purpo ses of his interaction wit h us and t he sacred site. 3. Sacred Sites T he role of the physical place itself w as asse ssed m ore directly subsequ ent to the analysis of the or igin al F ieldR E G data, but these app lications w ere consona nt in som e im portant respects with ot her predictor categories, especially t hat of G roup Rituals. For exam ple, data w ere taken in the course of one traverse arou nd the D evils Tow er m onum ent t ha t w as intended solely for direct enjoym ent and appreciation of t he rem arkable site, subsequent to an i ntensive expe rim ental project related to dow sing w hich is included in category B .3, Special Investigations, and is detailed elsew here (N elson & A postol, 1996). T his tour w as focused by t he intention to m ake photog raphs of various special perspectives, including t he site of t he m edicine cerem ony and som e favorite

430

R. D . N elson et al.

spots w h ich w ere n oted during t he dow sing experim ents but could be give n little attention at the tim e. Wounded K nee in Sout h D akota is t he loc ation of a m assacre of an entire tribe of Sioux in one of t he saddest cha pters of the Indian w ars in t he course of w hich t he tribal lands w ere pr og ressively taken by t he surging w hite population. It is a desolate place, dom inated by a cem etery and a m onum ent with explanatory and descriptive signs. It is con sidered sacred by t he Indians, and en genders in t he visitor a feeling of deep quiet. 4. M usic and Theater T his category is represented in t he predictor set only by a high ly theatrical hum or conference, w hich w as designed for professionals w ho use hum or i n t heir w ork, but also for the pur pose of enjoying hum or. T he full program , including eve n t he coffee breaks, w as designed to eng age and entertain, and to be exem plary of hum or. A lt ho ugh t his conf erence m igh t seem to be an unusual exam ple for a m usic and t he ater category, its t hem atic structure and intent w ere characteristic of t ha t genre, and t he strong indication of ano m alous de viation here supports t he prediction of an effect in t heatrical and m usical ve nues t hat deeply eng age t he audience. 5. Charismatic Events A t t he tw o-w eek A cade m y of Consciousness Studies held at Princeton in 1994, data w ere recorded for m ost session s. A lt hough t his w as a sp ecial gat hering with som e asp ects of an academ ic conference, it entailed qua lities asso ciated with sm all, t hem atically oriented w orking groups. O ne session am ong 60 show ed a persistent de viation t hat w as sufficiently extrem e to produc e a significant Bonferroni-corrected ove rall deviation for the A cadem y as a w hole. T he topic of t he session w as ritual i n day-to-da y life and the im portance t his natural m anifestation of consciou sness m ay hold for its ow n deeper understanding . T his application is t hus related to t he Ritual category, but it w as not designed or conducted as a ritual. T he topic and t he presentations w ere deeply eng aging , and several individuals indepe nde ntly reported shared reactions t hat w ere subjectively very intense and coherent, suggesting that t his m ay be pro pe rly characterized as a charism atic eve nt t hat pow erfully focused attention and integrated the attending individuals into a grou p. A t present t here are no confirm atory applications in t his category. B. Venues Showing No Anom alous FieldREG Effects (cf. Table 1b) In the origina l F ieldR E G applications, priority w as given to situations t hat seem ed on intuitive grounds likely to prod uce t he group coherenc e and en gagem ent t hat w e suspected m igh t foster anom alous F ieldR E G de viations. D ata also w ere taken at academ ic conf erenc es, business m eeting s, and a num ber of other environm ents w hich seem ed less propitious, and indeed none of

FieldRE G II: Consciousness Field E ffects

Table 1b S um m ary o f E arly F ieldR EG A p plication s Sh owing N ull E ff ects Ven ue A cadem ic M eeting s SS E M eeting PA M eeting A ll Ac adem ic Bu si ness M eeting s SS E Coun cil* D ate N-Trials

431

df

E ffect

Jun 95 Au g 95

4 289 7 77 53 4 120 43 1 25 83 8 12 19 4 677 7 1 897 1 51 8 165 75 8

15.9 43 44.8 12 60.7 55 10.1 75 2.9 57 3.3 51 6.3 08 0.1 25 77.3 63

19 55 74 12 2 10 12 1 99

.70 0 .83 5 .86 6 .60 1 .22 8 .97 2 .90 0 .72 3 .94 7

- .0 02 5 - .0 03 5 - .0 03 2 - .0 01 6
.0 06 8

De c 94

S pecial In vestigations M arfa, Texas* M ar 94 Dow si ng, De vils Tow er Oc t 94 A ll In vestigations Control Con ditions De vils Tow er Co ntrol Total Oc t 94

- .0 23 2 - .0 09 3 - .0 26 0 - .0 04 0

* In cluded in previously pub lished Fi eldRE G database.

t hese ve nues show ed any tendency tow ard unu sual deviations. In fact, t hese situations appeared to suppress segm ent variance to a sugge stive de gree ( c 2 = 77.363, 99 df , p = 0.053). T he following br ief descriptions pertain to Table 1b, w hich sum m arizes t he da ta gat hered in these and ot her categor ies for w hich null effects prevailed. 1. Academic M eetings FieldRE G data w ere taken at annu al m eeting s of t he Society of S cientific E xploration (S SE ) and the P arapsychological A ssoc iation (PA ), wit h the beginning and end of presentations m arked for segm ent analysis. S uch conferences are characterized by varied t hem es and individualized patterns of attention that do not lend t he m selves to group coherence. 2. Business M eetings T he origina l F ieldR E G database i nc lud ed a m eeting of the S SE gove rning council, w hich m eets wit h an agenda of typically businesslike m atters. W hile discussion s are am icable and coo perative, t here is usually little em otional en gagem ent. 3. Special Investigations A variety of otherwise un classified original applications i nc luded an investigation of the M arfa L igh ts in Texas, in w hich data w ere taken in t he low m ou ntains near M arfa w here m any reports of strang e ligh ts in the nigh t sky have been m ade . S om e observers have suggested a connection with natural

432

R. D . N elson et al.

phenom ena, w hile ot hers link the ligh ts to U FO speculations. T he researchers took a F ieldRE G system as part of an array of electronic and ot her m onitor ing devices, and recording s w ere m ade ove r seve ral evening s of the project. N o strong deviation s associate d wit h t he ligh t ph enom ena w ere observed. A nother project investigated t he possibility t hat F ieldR E G recording s m ight show deviations correspond ing to the indication s gene rated by dow sing. T his consisted of ten replications of a circuit around t he D evils Tow er m onum ent accom panying a dow ser, wit h t he data segm ents m arked correspon ding to t he dow sing responses. A lt hough the dow ser ho ped for an objective indicator, t he results show ed no consistent trends (N elson & A postol, 1996) . 4. Control Conditions O ther than the und esignated data taken during periods of tim e surrounding t he active data segm ents, one of t he original app lications w as designed as an explicit control con dition. T his w as a cerem on y pe rform ed at D evils Tow er by t he S ho shone sham an i n a control site selected by on e of t he ot her m em bers of t he group, rather than by t he sham an, w ho considered t he sacred site to be an im portant com pone nt of t he cerem ony. 4. Results of O riginal FieldREG Applications Tables 1a and 1b detail t he results obtained in the various ve nues described above for the anom alous and null effect categories, respective ly. Colum ns sum m arize t he num ber of RE G trials, the segm ent-based c 2 s with their degrees of freedom and correspon ding proba bilities, and t he trial-based effect p siz es, cal cu l at ed a s Z = n w h ere Z is o b t ai n ed as t h e n o rm al d ist ri b u ti o n q u an- tile of the p-value, and N is t he num ber of trials in the active data taken during t he application. A s n oted before, som e of t he early data w ere assessed by finding the segm ent with the m ost extrem e de viation and correcting for m ultiple analysis, so t hat t he actual num bers of trials for t ho se applications are not available without a m ajor re-analysis. T herefore, to allow effect size com putations t hat can be com pared to the later replications, a rough but adequate estim ate of N for t he full dataset has been m ade fr om the num ber of days or sessions. A s a graphical exam ple of the anom alous effects t hat m ay oc cur in these ap plications, F igure 1 sho w s t he cum ulative deviation of t he RE G trace dur ing t he Shosho ne sham an s healing ritual at the D evils Tow er sacred site. Figure 2 prov ides an exam ple of relative ly m odest cum ulative deviations of t he RE G trace during sessions of t he 199 5 m eeting of the Parapsychological A ssociation, w hich show ed, overall, no significant an om alous effect. A lt hou gh t his is a large dataset, wit h m any o ppo rtunities for an im pressive deviation such as t hat show n in F igure 1, none appe ar.

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433

Fig . 1. Cu mu lative d eviation of F ieldR EG trace du ring a 2 0-m inute healing cerem ony performed b y a S ho sh on e sh am an at D evils Tow er. T h e horizontal line sho ws the expectation for the r ando m w alk d escribed by the accum ulating deviations, and t he parabolic envelope show s the locus o f the 0.0 5 prob ability for so large a deviation as t he database increases.

Fi g. 2. Cu m ulative deviation of F ieldR E G trace d ur ing the An nu al Co nv ention o f the Pa rapsy chological A sso ciation, 19 95 . Vertical lines indicate t he beginn ings and end s of se ssio ns, each of w hich contained se veral presentations of 15 m inu tes du ration or m ore. T he hor izontal lines in each seg m ent sh ow the expectation, and the p arabo lic envelopes sh ow th e locus of the 0.0 5 pro bability for so large a deviation as t he database increases within that seg m ent.

434

R. D . N elson et al. Hyp othesis

O n t he basis of bot h t hese sets of results, w e n ow erect t he hypot hesis t hat future trials perform ed in environm ents closely resem bling t ho se in catego ry 1a, or otherwise fostering a high degree of sub jective resonance within the group , should continue to display anom alous segm ents of F ieldRE G respo nse. Conve rsely, trials cond ucted in environm ents sim ilar to category 1b or others involving little subjective resonance within the group, should show little anom alous character. T he next part of this paper describes a series of experim ents designed to test this hyp ot hesis.

5. Con rm atory Experim ents A. Venu es Favoring Anom alou s Effects (cf. Table 2a) 1. Sm all Groups In this category are further m eeting s of t he D M H I and ICR L grou ps described in S ection 3.A .1, supplem ented by data from tw o other very sim ilar situations. O ne of t hese (designated E gypt C in Table 2a ) is a subset of t he data gat hered dur ing a trip to E gypt with a group of 19 pe ople interested in ancient E gyptian religion and culture (N elson , 19 97a). T his group gat hered on several occasion s duri ng the trip to discuss pl ans and share ideas and practices t hat w ere of interest to eve ryone in t he group. T he second new venue in t his catego ry is a m eeting of the PE A R staff for a retreat (D unw alke) to share im pressions and ideas on t he current and future w ork of the laboratory group. 2. Group Rituals A t hird dataset from the CU U P S group described in Section 3.A .2 falls properly in t his category, along with a series of visits to E gyptian sacred sites (designated E gy pt A in Table 2a) by t he group m entioned in t he previou s pa ragraph . T he participants eng aged in m editation and cha nting in t he tem ples and t he interior cham bers of t he pyram ids, to honor the ancient traditions and to attem pt to create a spiritual connection to t he places in w hich t he ritua ls of t he ancient E gyptians had been conducted. 3. Sacred Sites Crater L ake is an un spoiled natural park of extraordinary beauty, and a place t hat has be en regarded as sacred by t he N ative A m ericans. It w as visited in late sum m er by tw o of t he aut hors and tw o com patible guests, all of w hom im m ersed t hem selves m editative ly in t he scenic and m ystical am bience of t he site.

FieldRE G II: Consciousness Field E ffects

Table 2a Con rm atory Fi eldRE G A pp lications Predicted to D isplay A n om alies Venu e S m all G ro up s DMHI DMHI I CR L I CR L I CR L E gyp t C D unw alke Al l Sm all G rou ps D ate N-Trials

435

df

E ffect

N ov 95 D ec 96 Jan 96 A u g 96 A p r 97 O ct 96 M ay 97

15 32 92 13 67 04 304 59 82 86 184 46 269 35 575 15 43 16 39

18 .289 22 .18 6 7.76 6 9.06 8 8.33 7 17 .15 7 7.54 4 90 .34 7

14 14 6 10 9 14 6 73

.1 94 .0 75 .2 56 .5 26 .5 01 .24 8 .27 4 .0 82

.00 22 .00 39 .00 38 - .00 07 - .00 00 .00 41 .00 25 .00 21

G rou p Rituals CU U PS Pa gan Circle 9 5, 96 E gyp t A , chanting O ct 96 Al l G rou p Rituals S acred S ites Crater Lake E gyp t B, Casu al A ll Sa cred Sites M usic/Theater Revels 95 Revels 96 Bayreuth O pera M et/NY C Op era A ll M usic/T heater Total

824 04 296 60 11 20 64

16 .48 1 51 .46 8 67 .94 9

16 22 38

.42 0 .00 04 .0 02 0

.00 07 .01 95 .00 86

A u g 96 O ct 96

857 42 273 67 113 109

6.99 9 56 .32 4 63 .32 3

6 27 33

.32 1 .00 08 .00 12

.00 16 .01 91 .00 90

D ec 95 D ec 96 Jul 96 9 6, 97

146 40 72 078 611 40 750 91 22 29 49 87 97 61

77 .01 4 2 87 .74 6 13 .70 4 16 .06 3 3 94 .52 7 6 16 .14 6

50 246 7 19 322 466

.0 08 .0 34 .0 57 .65 3 .00 31 2.20 10-

.01 99 .00 68 .00 64 - .00 14 .00 58

6

.00 49

T he E gypt B da taset w as gat he red in various sites im portant to t he ancient E gyptian sacred view, including t he tem ples and pyram ids. T hese sites w ere of t he sam e na ture as t hose in E gypt A , but in t hese cases t he group w as casually present and did n ot un dertake m editation, chanting , or other activities intended to foster group resonance. 4. M usic and Theater T he confirm atory w ork here includes a large-scale m usic and t heater production called T he Revels t hat is m ounted annually in eigh t or m ore cities around t he U nited S tates. T he artistic director in S an Francisco proposed t hat t he participatory nature of the production, and its basis in various cultural rituals celebrating t he passage of t he old year into t he new, w ould m ake it a likely cand idate for anom alous F ieldRE G effects. (T he Revels m igh t also be included in the G rou p R ituals subset ba se d on its content and on its com m unity and celebratory na ture .) Five especially eng aging pieces from the show w ere predicted to yield anom alous deviations. Ten show s in tw o cities w ere recorded in 1995, and an eve n large r replication in 1996 included eigh t cities

436

R. D . N elson et al.

presenting sim ilar program s, each with m ultiple pe rform ances. T his dataset is described in greater detail in a separate report (N elson & M ayer, 19 97). Tw o datasets w ere accum ulated at operas, on e set i n Bayreut h, taken by a G erm an colleague , t he ot her in N ew Yo rk at the M etropolitan and N ew Yo rk City O peras. T he B ayreut h o peras w ere po rtions of t he Wagner R ing cycle, and t he separate acts w er e designated as t he tem por al segm ents for the expe rim ent. (T he Wagner festival could also be included in group ritual or the sa cred site categories since it constitutes a ye arly pilgrim age by devotees to t he Festspielha us, a t he ater designed by t he com poser for op tim al resonance wit h his w ork.) F or form al analysis, t he sam e act-based prediction w as m ade for the N ew Yor k data, bu t inform al rating s also w ere m ade of espe cially pow erful acts, allow ing a subset to be draw n for w hich the prediction of an effect m igh t be linked to a spe cific subjective reaction of t he expe rim enter to the situation. B. Venues Favor ing Null Effects (cf. Tab le 2b) 1. Academ ic M eetings Inc lud ed in t he confirm ation w ork w he re a nu ll deviation is predicted are tw o m ore S SE m eetings, a m ultidisciplinary conferenc e, Tow ard a S cience of Consciousness (Tu cson II), and an SS E sym posium on alternative archaeology called Return to t he Source. In m ost cases all presentation s w ere included in t he analysis, except for the Consciousness conference w here t here w ere m any parallel sessions and only t he plenary presentations could be recorded. 2. Business M eetings Tw o confirmatory databases w ere acquired in subsequent m eetings of t he SSE C ounc il.

Table 2b Co n rm atory F ieldR E G D ata W ith P redicted N ull D eviation Ve nu e A cadem ic M eetings SS E M eeting Tucson II M eeting E uroS SE M eeting Return to So urce Sy m p. Al l A cademic Bu si ness M eeting s S SE Cou ncil SS E Co un cil A ll Busin ess Total D ate N-Trials

df

Eff ect

Jun 97 A pr 96 O ct 96 S ep 96

58 05 7 50 84 6 99 18 8 65 15 4 2 73 24 5

27.25 0 6.33 3 24.89 1 8.5 74 67.0 48

27 6 42 14 89

.45 0 .38 7 .98 3 .85 7 .96 0

.00 05 .00 13 - .00 67 - .00 42 - .00 33

N ov 9 5 Jun 97

32 59 9 25 92 4 58 52 3 3 31 76 8

22.22 1 10.53 2 32.75 3 99.80 1

17 14 31 12 0

.17 6 .72 2 .38 1 .90 8

- .00 37
.00 13

.00 52

- .00 23

FieldRE G II: Consciousness Field E ffects 6. Results of Con rm atory Experim ents

437

Table 2a details t he results for the hypothesis-based expe rim ents testing t he prediction t hat ve nu es conceptually sim ilar to t ho se of t he corresponding predictor set (Table 1a) will display sim ilar tendencies tow ard anom alous deviations. Com pared to t he bottom line for the early applications, w hich had a chance probability of about one in ten m illion , that of the conf irm atory set is about tw o in one m illion. T he m ean Z-scores in the tw o cases, 1.656 0.209 and 1.118 0.297, respectively, bot h differ significantly from t heoretical exp ectation, bu t not from each ot her, constituting a strong replication of the an om alous effects. T he trial-based effect size calculated from t he unw eigh ted Z-scores in the confirm atory dataset is som ew hat sm aller t han in t he original set (E t = 0.0077 com pa red with E t = 0.00 49), but again not sign ificantly so (Z = 1.531). Figure 3 show s t he accum ulation of c 2 in the anom alous effect category, com bined across t he predictor and confirm ation datasets. Table 2b details t he confirm ation expe rim ents in venues predicted to yield null effects, in circum stances t hat are prim arily intellectual and businesslike. A s predicted, deviations tend to be relatively sm all, and t he c 2 is sm aller t han chance expectation to a sugg estive degree ( c 2 = 99.80 , 12 0 df, p = 0.09). If the data for t he predictor and con firmatory sub sets are com bined, t here is a

F ig. 3. A no m alous effect. The so lid line sh ow s the cum ulative c over the applications in the p redictor se t detailed in Table 1a (t he f irst 6 3 d egrees of freedom , m arked by a dash ed line) and th e applications in the confirm atory d atase t detailed in Table 2a. T he do tted lines sh ow the expectation and t he locus of the 0.0 5 pr obability fo r so large a deviation as t he database increases.
2

438

R. D . N elson et al.

significant indication t hat t here m ay actually be a suppression of segm ent varianc e in applications of t his genre ( c 2 = 177.164, 219 df, p = 0.019). T his aspect of t he FieldRE G data will require further effort to clarify. Figure 4 show s t he accum ulation of c 2 in t he nu ll effect category, ove r both t he predictor and confirm ation datasets. 7. New Exp loratory Experim ents (cf. Table 3) T he early experim ents and t he replication s described above cover only a lim ited spa n of possible F ieldR E G applications, and alt hough the patterns of success and failure suggest and t hen confirm t he general discrim ina ting concept em bodied in t he hypot hesis of S ection 4, it seem s desirable to expand t he environm ental rang e of exp loratory experim ents in orde r to extend and refine t he releva nt criteria. F or this purpose, ne w form al data have be en collected in about 40 app lications w here no specific predictions could be m ade directly from t he earlier w ork. T hese are subdivided into ten groups wit hin each of w hich t he applications are either repe tition s of a ve nue or closely related situations. T he rang e is fairly broad, and t he data collection is often o pportunistic in t he sense t hat it depe nd s upon t he experim enters interests and access to particular field situations. In addition, a variety of inform al, but potentially instructive sm all data-

Fi g. 4.

N u ll effect. T he so lid line sh ow s t he cum ulative c over the applications in the predictor set d etailed in Table 1b (the first 99 degrees of freedom , mark ed by a dashed line) and the applications in the confirmatory dataset detailed in Table 2 b. T he do tted lines sh ow the expectation and t he locus of the 0.05 pro bability for so larg e a deviation as t he database increases.
2

FieldRE G II: Consciousness Field E ffects

Table 3 S um m ary of E xp loratory F ieldREG A pp lications Ve nu e Da te N-Trials

439

df

E ffect

Religious Rites S tokes M em orial S ervice Fe b 97 L ud tke Rose nk ranz Ap r 97 L ud tke F un eral Ap r 97 A ll Religious Rites Pe rson al Rituals M oon Winter S o lstice M oon eclipse M oon eclipse M oon eclipse E gy pt E A ll P erson al Rituals Sh aring Pa rty H alloween Pa rty M om s Birthday A ll S haring Pa rty In vited Talks RG J O ld Gu ard RG J Rockefeller U . RG J Colgate RD N N CA S RD N Freiburg RD N Na ssa u Club RD N Ne w Di m ensions A L L M t. Sinai A ll I nv ited Talks Visits to S pecial Sites Black H ills D akota Badlands E gy pt D , Tour S ites Yo se m ite P ark A ll S pecial Si tes Sp irit Chann eling Chann eling S essio n Chann eling S essio n Chann eling S essio n Chann eling S essio n A ll Chann eling G lobal E vents Rabin Sh ot, 5 m in. G aiam ind M editation A ll G lobal E vents S piritual Training Ji n S hin D o Classes

3 18 3 4 46 7 217 50 294 00

0.01 6 1.03 7 2.21 8 3.27 1

1 4 5 10

.899 .90 4 .81 8 .97 4

- .0 22 6 - .0 19 5 - .0 06 2 - .0 11 3
.0 13 8 .0 16 0 .0 16 2 .0 01 9 .0 01 2 .0 02 1 .0 03 7

25 Oc t 96 21 De c 9 6 26 Se p 9 6 26 Se p 9 6 26 Se p 9 6 Oc t 96

6 21 2 3 94 4 4 47 3 4 45 3 4 47 0 10 44 0 33 99 2

2.20 2 2.00 5 3.94 3 1.60 0 1.52 3 9.25 5 20.59 6

1 1 2 2 2 9 18

.13 8 .15 7 .13 9 .44 9 .46 7 .41 4 .30 0

Oc t 96 Oc t 94

13 13 6 13 23 5 26 37 1

7.87 3 3.2 65 11.1 38

4 1 5

.09 6 .07 1 .04 9

.0 11 4 .0 12 8 .0 102

Oc t 95 Oc t 95 Ap r 97 M ar 94 N ov 95 N ov 96 N ov 96 M ay 97

7 49 0 12 67 0 28 00 122 32 60 49 36 27 78 11 56 69 583 48

2.378 0.04 2 0.30 3 5.31 2 9.85 3 2.11 2 0.83 5 3.896 24 .73 1

1 1 1 7 5 3 2 3 23

.12 3 .83 8 .58 2 .62 2 .08 0 .55 0 .65 9 .27 3 .36 4

- .0 08 8 - .0 03 9 - .0 02 8 - .0 02 1 - .0 04 6
.0 08 0 .0 01 4 .0 18 1

.0 13 4

Oc t 94 Oc t 94 Oc t 96 Jun 97

22 79 1 13 67 7 18 23 5 20 39 8 7510 1

12.99 2 17.11 2 16.85 8 1.76 3 48.72 5

10 18 8 3 39

.22 4 .51 5 .03 2 .62 3 .13 7

- .0 00 3 - .0 02 2
.0 04 0 .0 13 7

.0 05 0

23 22 31 01

N ov 96 De c 9 6 M ay 97 Jun 97

13 36 7 4 75 4 13 14 6 5 12 2 363 89

20.39 1 2.9 93 9.9 60 0.1 59 33.50 3

6 5 16 3 30

.00 2 .70 1 .86 9 .98 4 .30 1

- .0 07 6 - .0 09 8 - .0 30 0
.0 02 7

.0 24 9

04 N ov 95 23 Jan 9 7

69 0 4 90 0 5 59 0

6.87 5 23.88 3 30.75 0

1 14 15

.00 9 .04 7 .010

.0 90 5 .0 23 9 .0 31 1

Nov 95

142 31 1

19.60 7

26

.810

- .0 02 3

440

R. D . N elson et al.
Table 3 (C on tinued) Co ntinued: Su m m ary of Exploratory F ieldRE G Ap plications

Ven ue

D ate

N-Trials

df

E ffect

Gro up Celebr ations Pr inceton P -R ade Jun 96 Base lerM or gestraich F eb 97 Bu m m el S on ntag (offtim e) M ar 97 Al l G rou p Celebr ations Sp orts Pr inceton F oo tball Pr inceton F oo tball Pr inceton F oo tball Pr inceton F oo tball Princeton F oo tball Su perbow l T V RG J Su perbow l T V RD N A ll Sp orts Total Table 3

19 65 3 270 9 12 60 0 34 96 2

11 .810 4.91 3 4.07 6 20 .79 9

8 5 1 14

.16 0 .42 7 .04 3 .107

.00 71 .00 35 .0 15 3 .0 06 6

23 14 11 26 23 28 28

Se p 9 5 Oc t 95 Nov 95 O ct 95 N ov 95 Jan 96 Jan 96

245 7 94 0 577 3 404 7 573 9 177 95 189 19 556 70 498 13 4

8.52 2 2.90 3 8.50 8 29 .25 5 4.11 6 14 .62 7 15 .43 8 83 .36 9 296 .42 9

6 5 12 20 13 12 13 81 260

.20 2 .71 5 .7 44 .0 83 .9 90 .2 62 .2 81 .4 06 .05 9

- .0 18 5 - .0 08 6 - .0 30 7
.0 04 8 .0 04 2 .0 010 .00 22 .0 21 8

.01 68

bases have been recorded in t he laboratory and at various m eeting s and talks give n by t he lab staff m em bers. A lt hou gh m any of these situations hav e an identifiable relationship to other w ork, the da ta w ere not taken un der spe cific hypot heses t hat allow incisive analysis and inc lusion in t he form al database. A num ber of attem pts have been m ade in venues t ha t proved infeasible for practical reasons. F or exam ple, m eeting s of a m ens group and of a B udd hist Sangha w ere t hought to be go od cand idate venues, but it proved im possible to m ake suitable n otations wit hou t interfering with t he gr ou ps processes. 1. Religious Rites T his com prises a sm all gr oup of recording s take n at m em orial services and a funeral. O ne service w as for a high ly regarded D ean at P rinceton U niversity w ho died sudde nly after a sho rt illness. T he ot he rs w ere for an experim enter s m ot her-in- law in G erm any and consisted of an eve ning church service and t he funeral on the following day. T his is a sm all da tabase, but it is w ort h noting t hat t he results sho w supp ressed variance akin to t hat observed in the venues favoring null effects. 2. Personal Rituals Som e of these are sim ple, ind ividua l cerem onies t hat are intended to m anifest respect for variou s ancient traditions in w hich phases of t he m oon and t he chang ing of seasons are honored. T hey differ from t he G roup R itual category in having only one or tw o peo ple in attend ance. T he recording and analysis is also relatively sim ple, typically con sisting of a sing le segm ent covering t he period of the ritual. N oting t hat eclipses tend to draw t he attention of large num -

FieldRE G II: Consciousness Field E ffects

441

bers of peo ple, independent datasets w er e taken by t hree experim enters du ring a m oon eclipse to asse ss possible cor relations. T hough one of t hese show ed a fairly strong deviation, t he com bined results show ed no evidence of an an om alous effect, and t here w as n o significant correlation across t he t hree datasets. T he E gypt E sub set is a designed collection of data taken in person ally en gaging situations, including several t hat involved rituals, recorded dur ing t he aforem entioned E gypt tour. T he intent w as to prov ide a sam ple of segm ents t hat w ere ot he rwise sim ilar to those involving t he tour group, but with on ly t he expe rim enter actively eng aged. 3. Convivial Parties Tw o exam ples of gat hering s of fam ily and friends at parties bo t h sho w prom ise as sou rces of an om alous deviation. A s an i ndicator of the subjective im pact t he consciousne ss field research m ay have, w e note t hat a graph ic representation of t he data from t he H allow een party reve als a rem arkably apt t hou gh surely coincidental configuration, wit h sharp peaks t ha t (given t he context) are strong ly rem iniscent of a classic witch hat (see Figure 5). In both cases, t he interpe rsona l or group activity w as relaxed, fam iliar, and fun, all qua lities t hat help to create a natural unity and resonance.

Fig . 5. Cum u lative deviation o f F ieldRE G trace du ring a con vivial H alloween party in 19 96 . Ve rtical lines indicate index entries made at tim es th at seemed to m ark different ph ases of the p arty. The ho rizontal line sh ow s the expectation, and t he parabo lic envelope sh ow s the locus o f t he 0.0 5 prob ability fo r so large a deviation as t he database increases.

442 4. Professional Talks

R. D . N elson et al.

Seve ral recordings of professional talks given by t he PE A R staff indicate t hat t his type of activity tends to yield a null outcom e sim ilar to that foun d in academ ic or bu siness m eeting s. O verall, the eigh t exam ples show essentially undistorted data distribu tions. M ost of the recording s are sing le units cove ring t he entire talk, t hu s precluding any analysis t hat m igh t be sensitive to tem porary achievem ent of a group coherence. 5. Tourist Sites T his is a va ried group, but t he com m on them e is a location t hat attracts peo ple t hrough som e form of natural or cultural interest, includ ing scenic beauty and unique character. S everal are w ell-know n nationa l pa rks or m onum ents, and in each case t he data w ere recorded with only on e or tw o people in attendance. T he E gy pt D dataset w as recorded at several m ajor tourist sto ps of t he E gyptian visit t ha t w ere not sacred sites as defined for the project. T hese included t he rem arkable Cairo m useum with its Tu tankha m un exhibit, tom bs in t he Valley of the K ings, and t he beautifully preserved tom b of N efertari, nearby. In all cases t he re w ere no group activities or efforts to foster any sort of group resonance. E xcept for the E gyp t D subset, none of the tour ist sites produced anom alous yields. 6. Channe ling Sessions A n opportunity w as presented to attend oc casional channeli ng sessions w here a spirit entity nam ed S am uel w as im puted to give inform ation and com m ents to a sm all grou p. T he group m em bers he ld a va riety of different levels of belief in t he process and varied also in t he ir interpretations, but all w ere interested participants with a respe ctful attitude. T he first of four sessions show ed a strong FieldRE G result, w hile later sessions did n ot; hence no clear prediction about future applications in this ve nu e can be m ade. 7. Spiritual Training A n eigh t-day course of training in Jin Shin D o w as attended by a colleagu e, provi ding an opportunity to do FieldRE G recording s in a structured environm ent with a spiritual tone . T he classes consisted of physical and m ental exercises (pal dan gum ), m editation, and w ork sessions i n w hich participants practiced healing techniques with each ot he r and with t he teaching m aster. D ata segm ents corresponding wit h t hese t hre e activities w ere defined as t he form al analysis subset. T he results show ed no strong trends tow ard either anom alous deviation or variance suppression. 8. Sporting Events Seve ral hom e gam es of t he Princeton varsity football team w ere recorded.

FieldRE G II: Consciousness Field E ffects

443

A nalysis of t he early applications focused on hom e team touchdow ns w hile ball possession by t he hom e team defined the ana lytical segm ents i n later gam es. T he results sho w little indication of an anom alous effect in eit her m od e, despite t he exp ectation t hat sports activities often are pow erfully engaging and w ould seem to be a likely source of a grou p consciousne ss effect. It m ay be relevant t hat m ost of the gam es w ere som ew ha t lacklu ster, according to t he experim enter s subjective criteria, and elicited relative ly little crow d ent husiasm . Tw o independent recording s of the 1996 Superbow l w ere m ade via television broadcast, wit h a ball-po ssession segm ent pr otoc ol. A lthough t he re w as only m odest evidence for corresponding anom alous deviations, t he effect size w as com parable to the ave rage across t he conf irm atory applications in Ta ble 2a. A sim ilar study cond ucted at E uropean soccer gam es foc using on t he relatively rare goal plays, found a significant increase in data variance (Bierm an, 1996) , suggesting that the question regarding spo rts venues should rem ain open. 9. Global Events Specific oc casions w ith ve ry widespread interest present an o pportunity to ascertain w het her a global eve nt m igh t create an extended consciou sness field t hat could be detected using the F ieldR E G techn ology and protocols. W hen t he assassi na tion of Prim e M inister Rabin w as ann ounced in N ovem ber, 1995, t he continually running ContRE G sequenc e i n t he P E A R lab w as exam i ned retrospectively for any deviation at t he tim e of the m urder. T he pe riod of five m inutes surrou nding t he event does indeed show a pow erful, low -prob ability m eanshift, and an extraordinary effect size (see Figure 6). Because t here w as no pre-planned definition of the analytical segm ent boundaries, t his application m ust be regarded as exp loratory only, but it m ay be useful in form ing assessm ent strategies for ot her sing ular eve nts. A m ore positive occasion w as t he G aiam ind M editation , during w hic h sev eral researchers around t he w or ld took data to correspo nd with a widely prom oted m editation for w orld health and peace t hat took place in January, 1997. T his project, docum ented m ore fully in a separate repo rt (N elson, 1997b), also indicated a significant com po site effect. T he survey of this catego ry is at present too sm all for reliable prediction but toget her wit h related w ork (Radin, 1997) , sugg ests t hat t his is a potentially instructive ve nu e; further applications are ong oing . A ll of these data w ere acquired in a necessarily rem ote protoc ol, i.e., t he FieldRE G units w ere not proxim ate to the venues, but geographically far rem oved. F urther discussion of t he im plications of t his variant follow s in Section 9.

444

R. D . N elson et al.

F ig. 6. Cu m ulative d eviation o f Con tRE G data record ed in P rinceton at the tim e of the assassi nation of Pri me M inister Rabin. T he graph sh ow s a ten-m inute period of tim e exactly centered on the tim e of the sho oting. The h orizontal line sh ow s the expectation, and t he parabo lic envelope sh ow s t he locus of the 0.05 p rob ability fo r so large a deviation as t he database increases.

10. Group Celebrations T he P rinceton P -R ade is part of a yearly reunion of Princeton U niversity alum ni. A high proportion of alum ni return, and t he celebr ation s are rew arding , high -spirited, and som ew hat com plicated, in t he sense t hat m any different activities are in process and com pe te for attention . T he culm inating parade, how ever, does bring t he participants toge t her as a large attentive group, and FieldRE G data segm ents taken duri ng especially eng aging parts w ere m arked for analysis. T he results w ere equ ivocal at best. T he Baseler M orgestraich is an annu al celebration of ancient traditions in Basel, S witzerland, w here a m ajor proportion of the citizenry and a large num ber of pilgrim s from across E uro pe conve rge in t he city center at 4:00 am to partake. A ll electric ligh ts are turned off and candles illum ina te t he procession of m archers w earing gigantic m asks, i nterspersed wit h nu m erous floats be aring cartoon s and satiric text wit h political and social t hem es. T he m archers play eerie drum and piccolo m usic t hat is draw n from ancient ritual sou rces. A rem ind er version of t he M orgestraich, called B um m el S onntag, occurs on each of t he following four S und ay evening s, wit h t he m arche rs and m usicians repe ating t heir w andering pat h t hrough t he city, m inus t he costum es, but again wit h t he m usic, and t he fasci na ted attention of m any of their fellow citizens. T he data in t his case w ere taken in bo t h a rem ote and an offtim e m ode; t he

FieldRE G II: Consciousness Field E ffects

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first aut hor serendipitou sly discovered the event w hile in B asel for ano t her purpose, and since he did n ot have a F ieldR E G system available, m ade t he decision to take data upo n his return to Freiburg. T he offset tim e and t he am ount of data w ere pre-specified, and notes m ade to docum ent t he offtim e protocol. T he results show a sign ificant deviation. 8. Results of Exp loratory App lications In Table 3, as in the earlier tables, t he venue and date of t he application are give n, and t he results are sum m arized as a segm ent-based c 2 with its degrees of freedom and corresponding probability, and a trial-based effect size. T he data indicate t hat som e of t he subgroups could be prom ising ve nues for additional replications in t he future. O t hers show consistent indication s of null effects. B ecause t he selection of pa rticular applications in t his exploratory category is som ew hat arbitrary and dependent on o pportun ity, t he com posite statistical evaluation is n ot likely to be an incisive indicator. N evert he less, t he bottom line across t he ten subgr oups com prising a total of 40 applications is m arginally significant, with a c 2 of 29 6.429 on 26 0 degrees of freedom , and a corresponding prob ability of 0.059. Figure 7 show s t he accum ulated c 2 for t he exploratory category.

Fi g. 7. E x ploratory data. The solid line sho w s t he cum ulative c over all the applications in the exp loratory d atabase detailed in Table 3. T he do tted lines sh ow the expectation and t he locus o f t he 0.0 5 p rob ability fo r so larg e a deviation as t h e database increases.
2

446

R. D . N elson et al. 9. Discussion

Beyond confirm ing t he prim ary hypothesis posed in S ection 4, t he replication data listed in Ta ble 2, along with the origina l data of Ta ble 1 and t he exploratory results listed in Table 3, also display several indicators of sub sidiary structure in the FieldRE G databases t hat could be ar on t he form ulation of theoretical m odels of t he phe nom enon, and t hence on its eventual com pre he nsion. U nfortunately, t he data in ha nd are insufficient in sco pe and incisiveness to allow detailed assessm ent of any of t hese at t his tim e. Rat her, w e can sim ply ackn ow ledge t hese tendenc ies and rem ain alert to t hem in future w ork. A. Differences in Z-scores an d Effect Sizes M any of t he replications, w hile vigorously substantiating t he prim ary hypothesis, tend tow ard som ew hat sm aller Z-scores and effect sizes as t he num ber of applications in a given venue increases. T his m ay w ell be an other m anifestation of the serial position profiles found in our laboratory-based RE G studies (D unne et al., 1994 ), w hich in turn m ay indicate t he im portance of various subjective factors, such as n ove lty, confidenc e, or expectation, to operator pe rform ance in such experim ents. T heoretical inclusion of such factor s in t he FieldRE G genre of hum an/m achin e interactions, w here t he role of the o perator clearly is m ore indirect, diffuse, and subtle, will not be straigh tforw ard, and ultim ately m ay requ ire revisitation of the role of the experim enters in t his and ot her classes of anom alies research. O n t he ot her hand, since an experim enter is pe rforce included in all venues, t he significant differences in effects across application categories are m ore likely attributable to other factors asso ciated with t he group per se. B. Reductions of Varian ce A s m entioned briefly in S ection 6, the data acquired in application s predicted to have sm all yields, i.e., in prosaic or businesslike venu es, individu ally and collectively display variances w ell below those of t he high er yield categories and even below chance expectation. T here is a suggestion, as n oted earlier, t hat varianc e m ay be suppr essed in ot her situations, such as t he religiou s fune ral cerem onies described in S ection 7.1. O nce again t his is rem iniscent of sim ilar effects noted in ou r laboratory RE G expe rim ents (Jahn et al., 198 5) and elsew here (Bierm an, 199 6), and if confirm ed in further research, m ay constitute anot her m ode of ano m alous response of t he FieldRE G system to the prevailing consciousness environm ent. C. Displacem ents in Space and Tim e A s noted briefly in t he sections describing t he ve nu es of application, a few situations necessarily entailed sub stantial ph ysical separation of t he FieldRE G units from the groups being assessed. O ne of t hese eve n requ ired opera-

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tion of the equipm ent at tim es ot her than t hat of the actual assem bly. T hese radical departures from nom inal protocol have precedents in large bodies of laboratory-based RE G expe rim entation w herein t he o pe rators w ere physically far displaced from the m achines, and in som e cases directed t heir attention to t hem at tim es ot he r t ha n t hose of t he data collection. Ye t, t he scale and charac ter of these rem ote and offtim e results bear striking sim ilarities to t hose achieved under local, realtim e conditions (D unne & Jahn, 1992 ; N elson et al., 1991) . A lthough t he rem ote and offtim e FieldR E G da ta are very sparse at t his point, indications of t he viability of such protocols can be found, notably in t he G lobal E vent category. If substantiated by future applications, such results m ust have huge im pact on t he m od eling of suc h phen om ena by severely restricting t he m odalities of influence t hat can be posed. In particular, the roles of such objective pa ram eters as physical distance and tim e w ould need to be dim inished, w hile t hose of appropriate sub jective param eters, such as attention , com m itm ent, and em otional resonance w ould ne ed to be enhanced. D. Directions of Anom alou s Deviations We have as ye t n o answ er to t he question w het her the direction of de viations relative to expectation has any m eani ng ful im plication. O ur ana lysis explicitly igno res direction by considering only t he variability (or variance) of the deviations of the segm ent m eans. M os t applications show both po sitive and negative excursion s, but t here are som e exception s. T he CU U PS database has a num ber of F ull M oon cerem onies; am ong t hese are t he four m ost extrem e datasets and all four have nega tive deviations. T he E gy pt C da tabase has a consistent negative m eanshift across its 14 segm ents (m ean Z = - 0.604 , standard deviation = 0.963), and t he E gypt A databa se has a m arginally significant positive m eanshift (m ean Z = 0.449, standard deviation = 1.49 7). A m ong t he exploratory applications, t he eigh t Invited Talks stand out, wit h all deviations positive. H ow ever, given t he nu m ber of ana lyses from w hic h t hese exam ples are selected, as w ell as t heir lack of ove rall consistency, t hese suggestive results actually m ay be chance fluctuations. T he design of t he expe rim ent, w here w e specify t he variance m easure as our criterion for ano m alous results, and t he total sym m etry of t he FieldR E G electronics to positive and negative outputs (N elson et al., 1996), m ay m ake it both im possible and i nappropriate to infer m eaning from the direction of de viations. E. Alternative Segm entations In describing t he sm all groups w e observed that t he re m ight be be tter w ays to specify the active data segm ents i n som e cases, especially t hose w here t he group dynam ics w ere not w ell represented in term s of individual presentations. A lternatives such as se ssions or da ys m igh t better capture t he interpersona l dy nam ics of deep eng agem ent and broad interaction that cha racterize such m eeting s. In the ICR L case, for exam ple, suc h an alternative analysis w as

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done in an exploratory m ode prior to the form al assessm ent base d on participant presentations. In t his prelim inary analysis, t he t hree m eeting s show ed individual probabilities of 0.256 , 0.152, and 0.031, and a com bined prob ability of 0.046. Com pa rison of this with t he com bined prob ability of 0.453 for t he form al analysis indicates t he im portance of careful, expe rience-based design of the experim ental protocol and statistical analysis. Sim ply put, w e are still learning how to ask app ro pr iate questions in t he FieldRE G research. F. F uture Cou rse T he em pirical success of our hy pot hesis, lim ited as it m ay be, points to a progressive ly m ore com prehensive exam ina tion of other sub jective factors t hat m ay bear on t hese an om alous effects. We are attem pting now to extend such understanding by m ore detailed evaluation of the subjective qua lities characterizing t he original, confirmatory, and new exploratory app lications described above . W hile it is difficult to specify such qua lities with precision since t hey are by t heir nature defined in pe rsonal term s, it ne vertheless is po ssible to list som e concepts t hat generally seem to characterize conditions or situations in w hich w e m ay expect an an om alous effect: 1. G roup resonance, particula rly in em otionally m eaning ful contexts; 2. H igh ratios of subjective to objective , or em otional to intellectual contents; 3. R elatively profound personal involve m ent, especially if shared in a group; 4. D eeply eng rossing , fully interactive com m un ication; 5. S ituations or sites t hat are spiritually eng aging ; 6. C ircum stances t hat evoke a sense of fun and hum or; 7. A ctivities t ha t are intensely creative, and 8. F reshness or novelty for participants. It is im po rtant also to consider t he null deviation venues, w hich regu larly show reduced variance of segm ent scores. T hese typ ically do not have a global structure or a unifying t hem e, and possess few of t he characteristics listed above. Rat her, t hey tend to be high ly analytical or designed to transm it specific, w ell-def ined, objective inform ation. W hile t hey m ay eng age participants intellectually, t hey tend to exclude personal and em otional reactions and interactions. In fact, t here is an im plicit presum ption that objective considerations will take precedence over subjective expe rience. U ltim ately, of course, it will be necessary to seek an explanatory m od el and t heoretical structure to accom m od ate t hese results (Jahn & D unne, 1988). A n adequate m odel m ust help us to understand bot h t he intention-driven laboratory experim ents, and t he field studies w he re little or no attention is give n to t he RE G and t here is no explicit intention. It also m ust address t he obvious relevance of num erou s subjective factors, and ackn ow ledge t he apparent insensi -

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tivity of the an om alous effects to recog nized ph ysical variables, inc luding spatial or tem poral separations, or t he type of random sou rce involved. A s a very crud e initiative, w e postulate t he existence of a pervasive con sciousness i nform ation field t ha t m ay, under certain circum stances, exhibit detectable m odulations generated by individuals or groups. M ore specifically, it is pr oposed t hat via this field, hu m an consciousness can act as a radiati ng source of inform ation, capable of affecting otherwise random proc esses by inserting som e degree of order and m aking them sligh tly m ore predictable. Since t he environm ental aspects t hat seem to correlate m ost strong ly with such anom alous effects are sub jective in cha racter, t his structuring influence, w hich m ight be labeled subjective inform ation, involves t he attribution of m eaning to situations or eve nts. In t he field experim ents reported here, as in t he intention-ba sed laboratory experim ents, t his m odification of the con sciousness i nform ation field appears to m anifest t hrou gh alterations of statistical distributions generated by suitably prepared phy sical system s t hat have random or undeterm ined com ponents. In t he laboratory experim ents, these alterations appe ar to be drive n by ope rator intention, wishing , or purpose, and seem to be am plified by som e form of em otion al or spiritual resona nce. In t he field experim ents, resonance seem s to pl ay t he prim ary role, supplem ented by som e less conscious s tate of intention. A lthough , by their nature, subjective pro pe rties are particularly difficult to specify or m onitor, let alon e to quantify, w e are persuaded that their inclusion is essential for understanding the anom alous interaction s of consciousness wit h its env ironm ent (Jahn & D unne, 1997) . T he F ieldR E G experim ents com prise a prom ising em pirical vehicle for technical assessm ent of natural, o perational situations w here people are eng aged in activities em ploying the full rang e of their capabilities. A m ong t hese, apparently, are heretofore un detected direct interactions of consciousne ss w ith random physical system s, t ha t can reflect im portant characteristics of bot h. Acknow ledgm ents We are grateful for the help and interest of m any individuals, and for the m ajor contributions of tim e to these studies by sev eral colleagu es, inc luding D r. M ary K uh ner, D r. A rnold L ettieri, D r. E lisabet h M ayer, M r. Charles O ve rby, and Prof. D ieter Va itl. T he Princeton E ng ineering A nom alies Research pr og ram is suppo rted by a num ber of founda tions and ind ividua ls, includ ing t he Institut fr G renzgebi ete der Psychologie und P syc hoh ygiene, t he L ifebridge F ounda tion, the O hrstrom Founda tion, M r. Richard A dam s, M r. A lexander Im ich, M r. L aurance S. Rockefeller, and M r. D on ald Webster.

450

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Bash am , A . L. ( 19 59 ). The Wo nder T ha t Wa s In dia. N ew Yo rk: Grove Press. Bierm an, D . J. (1 99 6) . E xp loring correlations betw een local em otional and g lobal em o tional events and th e behavior of a rando m nu m ber generator. Journ al of Scientific E xploration , 10 , 3, 36 3. D ob yn s, Y. H . & N elso n, R. D. (1 99 7) . E mp irical Evidence Against D ecision Augm entation Theo ry. Techn ical N ote PE A R 970 05 , P rinceton E ngineering A no m alies Research, Pr inceton U niversity, Sc ho ol of Engineering/A pp lied S cience. D un ne, B. J. (1 99 1) . Co-O perat or E xperiments with an R E G D evice. Techn ical N ote PE A R 910 05 , Pr inceton E ngineering A no m alies Research, P rinceton Un iversity, S chool o f E ngineering/Ap plied Sc ience. D un ne B. J., D ob yn s, Y. H ., Jah n, R. G., and N elso n, R. D. (1 99 4). Se ries position effects in rando m event generator experim ents; W ith an A ppend ix by A . M . T ho m pson , S erial posi tion effects in the p sy chological literature. Journ al of Scientific E xplora tion, 8, 2 , 19 7. D un ne B. J. & Ja hn , R. G . (1 99 2). Ex perim ents in rem ote hu m an/m achine interaction. Jou rn al of Scientific E xplorat ion, 6 , 4, 31 1. D ur kh eim , E . (1 96 1). S o ciety and individual consc iousn ess. In T. Pa rson s, E . Sh ils, K . D . N aegele, and J. R. P itts (E ds.), Theo ries of Society, 2, 720 . G lencoe, Illinois: T he F ree P ress. Ja hn , R. G . & Du nn e, B. J. ( 19 88 ). M arg ins of R eality: The R ole o f Co nsciousne ss in the P hysical World . N ew Yo rk: Ha rcourt Br ace. Ja hn , R. G . & D un ne, B. J. (1 99 7). S cience of t he su bjective. Journa l o f Scientific E xplorat ion, 11 , 2, 20 1. Ja hn , R. G ., D un ne, B. J., and N elson , R. D . (1 98 7) . E ng ineering anom alies research. Jou rna l of Scientific E xplorat ion, 1 , 1, 21 . Ja hn , R. G ., Du nn e, B. J., N elson, R. D ., D oby ns, Y . H ., and Br adish , G . J. (1 99 7) . Correlations of rand om binary seq uences with pre-stated operator intention: A review of a 12 -y ear pro gr am . Journa l of Scientific Explora tion, 11 , 3, 34 5. Ja hn , R. G ., N elso n, R. D ., and D un ne, B. J. (19 85 ). Va ri an ce E ffects in RE G Series Score D istributions. Techn ical No te PE A R 85 00 1, Princeton Eng ineering A no m alies Research, Pr inceton U niversity, S choo l of E ngineering/Ap plied Sc ience. Ja m es, W. ( 19 77 ). H um an I mm orta lity. Bosto n: H oughton- M ifflin. (O riginally pu blish ed 189 8). N elson, R. D . (1 99 7a). F ieldR E G M easure me nts in E gypt: Reson an t Con sc iousn ess at Sacred Sites. Techn ical N ote P E AR 970 02 , Princeton E ngineering A nom alies Research, Pr inceton U niversi ty, S choo l of E ngineering/Ap plied Sc ience. N elson, R. D . (1 99 7b ). M ultiple field REG /RN G recordings du ring a global event. T he electronic Jo urnal fo r A no malous Ph enom ena (eJA P) , http://ww w.psy.uv a.nl/eJA P. N elson, R. D . & A po sto l, A . (19 96 ). A Repeated M easu res F ieldR E G Application: D owsing B iolocation a t D evils Tow er. I nternal Report P E AR 9 6.0 1, Pr inceton E ngineering A nom alies Re se arch, P rinceton U niversity, Sc ho ol of Eng ineering/A pp lied S cience. N elson, R. D . & M ayer, E . L . ( 19 97 ). D epartu res from Expectation in R an do m E vent Sequences: A F ieldR EG A pplication a t The Christm as R evels. I ntern al Report PE A R 97 .01 , P rinceton Eng ineering A nom alies Research, Pr inceton U niversity, Sc ho ol of E ngineering/A pp lied S cience. N elson , R. D ., Br adish , G . J., and D ob yn s, Y. H . (1 99 2). T he P ortable P EA R RE G : H ardw are and S oftwa re D ocumentation. In ternal D ocum ent #92 -1 , P rinceton E ngineering A nom alies Rese arch, P rinceton, N J. N elson , R. D ., Br adish , G . J., D oby ns, Y. H., D un ne, B. J., and Ja hn , R. G . ( 19 96 ). F ieldRE G ano m alies in gro up si tuations. Jou rna l o f Scientific E xplorat ion, 10 , 1, 11 1. N elson , R. D ., Do by ns, Y. H ., D unn e, B. J., and Ja hn , R. G . (1 99 1) . A na lysis o f Va ria nce of R EG E xperiments: O pera tor In tention, S econd ar y P aram eters, Da taba se Struc ture. Technical No te P EA R 9 10 04 , P rinceton E ngineering A n om alies Research, P rinceton U niversity, Sc ho ol of E ngineering/A pp lied Science. Radin, D . I. & Ne lso n, R. D . ( 19 89 ). E v idence fo r con sc iousn ess-related anom alies in r andom phy sical sy stem s. F ou nd ations of P hysics, 19 , 12 , 149 9. Radin, D . I., Rebm an, J. M ., and Cr oss, M . P. (19 96 ). A nom alous organization o f r ando m events by gro up con sciou sne ss: Tw o exploratory experim ents. Journa l of Scientific E xploration , 10 , 1, 14 3. Radin, D . I. (19 97 ). The Con sc ious U niverse. S an Fr ancisco: H arper S an Fr ancisco.

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S heldrake, R. (1 98 1). A New Science of L ife: The H ypothesis of Fo rma tive Causa tion. L os A ngeles : J. P. Tarcher, I nc.

Ap pendix: Con trol Data and Theoretical Com parison Stand ards T he generation of appro priate control data in F ieldR E G experim ents is ne cessarily com plicated by t he variable tem poral and spatial aspects of t he disparate venues. T he only uniform standa rd of com parison for active data is t he norm al approxim ation to the appr opriate t heoretical binom ial distributions. T hus, although specific com parisons agai nst em pirical con trols often can be m ade i n t he course of our analyses, t he sum m ary presentation of results refers in all cases to t he t heoretical standard. T he analytical justification for t his strategy derives from t hree pe rspectives: 1. C alibration data sho w ve ry good correspo ndence w ith t heoretical expectations. 2. R esam pled, non-active data take n in t he sam e con text w ith the experim ental da ta differ little from theoretical exp ectation. 3. C om parisons of active data agai nst t he pa ram eters of t he resam pled, non-active data yield essentially t he sam e results as com parison s w ith t heory.

Calibrations A ll PE A R random event generators incor porate three special m easures to ensure nom inal perform ance. First, only high quality com ponents are deployed in so phisticated hardw are design s. Second, an X O R of t he raw bit-stream with an alternating or balancing tem plate elim inates secular bias of the m ean. T hird, the actual experim ental data are sum s of 200 bits, m itigating all residua l short-lag autocorrelations and ot he r potential tim e-series aberrations. A ll RE G devices are subjected to extensive calibr ation s prior to and during t heir expe rim ental app lication s. F or t he F ieldR E G experim ents, m ost data are taken wit h a third-gene ration m icro- RE G designed for use wit h a palm top com puter. Ty pical calibration results are give n in Table A .1, w hich sum m arizes t he
Table A .1 : Stand ard Calibration A nalysis fo r Typical M icro-R EG Calibration D ata S ou rce T heory Batch 1 Batch 2 Batch 3 Batch 4 N- Trials M ean 10 0.0 00 0 99.9 98 4 99.9 891 10 0.0 04 0 99.9 94 6 S td. De v 7.0 71 1 7.0 72 7 7.0 85 8 7.0 67 9 7.0 72 4 Sk ew K urtosis*

152 54 1 20 25 74 425 03 6 423 42 2

- 0.0 07 9
0.0 07 7 0.0 03 0 - 0.0 00 0

0.0 00 0

- 0.010 0 - 0.02 80 - 0.01 22 - 0.01 21 - 0.02 00

* T he expected value for ku rtosis is normalized to zero fo r th e n ormal distribution, and calculated as - 2/N w here N is th e num ber o f binom ial sa m ples.

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distribution pa ram eters for four indepe nd ent calibration datasets, n one of w hich is significantly deviant in any param eter. In addition, t he standard calibration ana lysis includes com parisons agai nst t heoretical predictions for the frequency of counts, statistics for blocks of 10 0 and 10 00 trials, run s betw een consecutiv e high trials, runs betw een consecu tive low trials, t he arcsine distribution for proportion of 50 trial runs above t he m ean, and autocor relation function s for raw data and 50-trial blocks. A ll toget her, the analysis suite com prises 12 separate (t hough not necessarily independent) tests for each batch of calibr ation s. In t he full battery of test scores for the data sum m arized in Table A .1, t here are a total of 48 tests, tw o of w hich are significant at p = 0.05 or less, differing little from w hat w ould be expe cted by chance. T he B onferroni-adjusted p-value for the m ost extrem e outcom e of the 48 different tests also is non-significant. T hus, according to t his broad spectrum of canonical calibration tests, t he rando m event generator perform ance is statistically indisting uishable from t he oretical expe ctations. Resam pling In F ieldR E G applications, it is not alw ays feasible to collect m atch ing control data because m any potentially im portant situa tional factors cann ot be m aintained. U sua lly t he best t hat can be don e is to take data in non- active tim e periods pr ior to or after the active data segm ents. For exam ple, control data for a t heater perform ance can be taken only before or after the pe rform ance, or be tw een its acts, w hen t he prevailing am bience is qu ite different. W hen it is feasible to take data in a given environm ent before and after t he design ated experim ental segm ents, som e of t he surrou nding tim e periods t hem selves m ay be subject to t he sam e i nflue nces as t he active segm ents. (Inde ed, eve n in labor atory experim ents there is evidence t hat traditional control da ta m ay not be im m une to ano m alous effects of consciousne ss.) N evert he less, our standard analysis of F ieldR E G data includes a resam pling procedure w henever t he data file contains as m uch or m ore data in non- active segm ents as i n t hose defined as active for the application. A pseudo random process is used to identify and extract segm ents m atch ing in num ber and size t hose designated as active data from t he surrounding undesign ated data. T his resam pling process is repeated 10 00 tim es, allow ing t he construction of a distribution of outcom es against w hich t he results for the pre-defined, active experim ental segm ents m ay be com pared. To prov ide a specific exam ple, w e sho w the outcom e of t he protocol-based resam pling analysis follow ed by t hat for an arbitrary resam pling of the sam e data, using a dataset from a strong ly deviant portion of the E gy pt database (cf. Table 2a, E gypt A ). Table A .2 show s t he or igin al output from t he analysis program with data take n from the file for O ctober 17, w hich includes abou t 2.5 hours of active data in nine segm ents taken i n t he M ycerinus and K huf u pyram ids, surrounded by several hou rs of non-active data. (We should n ote t hat t he non-active designation is relative to t he spe cified analysis category t he

FieldRE G II: Consciousness Field E ffects

Table A.2 Egyp t, G iza2, M ycerinus and Kh uf u (O ct 17 ) Repo rt of Resam pling A nalysis F ou nd eld.d at with le size 756 11 . D ata grou p ( chant): Range Z p(Z ) 0.3 53 1 0.0 24 6 0.4 85 0 0.0 26 1 0.0 03 9 0.0 893 0.0 16 4 0.3 34 4 0.2 70 8 T 0.3 72 4 2.0 20 9 0.0 35 8 2.0 30 6 2.6 86 1 1.3 55 4 2.1 60 1 0.4 27 2 0.6 01 4

453

p(T) 0.35 48 0.02 16 0.48 57 0.02 11 0.00 36 0.08 76 0.01 54 0.33 46 0.27 38

147 41 - 15 88 1 0.3 77 0 158 81 - 16 66 7 1.9 67 3 414 66 - 41 97 3 0.0 37 7 419 79 - 43 46 4 1.9 41 4 434 64 - 44 47 9 2.6 589 444 83 - 45 23 0 - 1.3 45 3 452 30 - 46 11 2 - 2.1 33 3 466 79 - 4 891 3 - 0.42 79 4891 3 - 52 79 8 - 0.610 3 A ctive data 12 68 1 o f 756 11 ( 0.1 67 7)

Bon ferro ni-adjusted p-v alue of greatest deviation: 0.0 68 37 66 9 df , c (Z) = 21 .7 69 ( 0.00 96 ), c ( T) = 22.6 10( 0.0 07 1) P erform ed 10 00 resam plings fo r gro up (chant). D istribu tion o f Z-sco res: M = - 0.1 55 24 4, SD = 0.9 65 09 7 2 M axim um c is 2 4.5 01 4 A total of 2 out of 10 00 resam ples exceed the test value. 2 Average resam pled c : 8.59 86 9 +/ - 3.5 51 55 o n 9 df Resam pling-C orrected c (Z ): 22.78 5 on 9 df , p= 0.0 06 7

day s recording m ay include active segm ents from other analysis categories. T his increases t he conserva tism of the analysis in proportion to the extent t hat deviant da ta are included by chance in t he com parison distribution .) Table A .3 show s a calibr ation analysis for this sam e database. In t his case, a set of arbitrary offsets w as defined by taking segm ents of 1000 trials spaced at 10 000-trial intervals instead of using t he segm ent definitions of the actual field application. In both cases, t he c 2 , noted as c (Z), is associate d wit h a probability that is sim ilar to t he pro po rtion of the 100 0 resam ples t ha t exceed t he test value. A Resam pling -C orrected c (Z) based on t he param eters of t he distribution of Zscores differs little from the t heoretically based value, and t he average resam 2 pled c does n ot differ from its expectation or degrees of freedom . T hus, in t his exam ple w here a large com posite anom alous deviation is found in t he active data, bot h the original, experim ent-based resam pling and an arbitrary calibr ation resam pling yield results consonant w ith t heoretical expe ctation. Com bining t he calibration and resam pling perspectives, t he sam e sort of calibration resam pling as w as done for Table A .3 w as perform ed on all t he E gypt datasets. T here are ten of these, with am ounts of data varying from about 60000 to 190000 trials. T he resam pling w as based on arbitrary

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Table A.3 A r bitrary Calibration from E gy pt, G iza2 ( Oc t 17) Report of Resam pling A nalysis

F ou nd eld.d at wi th le si ze 756 11 . D ata gro up (arbcal): Range Z p(Z ) 0.2 14 3 0.4 20 3 0.0 74 3 0.2 37 1 0.2 896 0.2 46 9 0.2 19 6 T p(T) 0.21 45 0.42 20 0.08 15 0.23 88 0.29 36 0.24 68 0.22 12

10 00 0 - 110 00 - 0.7 91 6 200 00 - 2100 0 0.2 01 2 300 00 - 3100 0 1.4 44 5 400 00 - 4100 0 - 0.7 15 5 500 00 - 5100 0 - 0.5 54 5 600 00 - 6100 0 - 0.6 84 2 700 00 - 7100 0 - 0.7 73 7 A ctive data 70 00 of 7561 1 (0.09 26 )

- 0.7 90 9 0.1 96 8 1.3 95 4 0.7 102 0.5 43 0 0.6 84 6 0.7 68 2

Bon ferro ni-adjusted p- value of greatest deviation : 0.6 75 70 5 7 df ,c (Z) = 4.64 0( 0.7 03 8), c (T) = 4.46 9( 0.7 24 4) P erform ed 10 00 resam p lings fo r gro up (arbcal). D istribution of Z -sco res: M = - 0.00 12 783 9, S D = 1.07 61 9 2 M axim um c is 2 8.1 562 A total of 81 5 out o f 100 0 resam ples exceed the test value. Aver age resam pled chisquare: 8.106 15 +/ - 3 .8 80 71 on 7 d f Resam pling-C orrected c (Z): 4.0 07 on 7 df, p= 0.7 79 0

specification of 10 00-trial (15-m inute) segm ents at 1 000 0-trial intervals. O nly 2 one of the 10 datasets sho w ed a significant c , at p = 0.031 (Bonferroni-adjusted p = 0.31), despite t hat t he random placem ent certainly often w ould have in2 cluded by chance parts of t he active data segm ents. T he com posite c for all t hese resam pled da ta from t he E gy pt application is 85.012, with 81 de grees of freedom and an associated probability of 0.359. T hus, again, t he data indicate a w ell-behaved random source w hen arbitrarily sam pled; only w he n t hose da ta segm ents sp ecified by the FieldRE G protoc ol are considered does t he data se quence exhibit anom alous deviations. T hese exam ples dem on strate t he com plex structure of t he FieldRE G da tabases and illustrate the issues associated with adequate controls. T he calibration and resam pling results show n he re clearly indicate t hat com parison of FieldRE G data against theoretical standards is appropriate.