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John Leahy
Chief Operating Officer Customers
GMF highlights
GMF 2010 key numbers and 20-year change
2009
2029
% change
RPK (trillion)
Passenger aircraft
4.76
14,240
12.03
29,050
153%
104%
1,550
-
24,980 3,350
870 25,850
+116%
-
Oil Crisis
5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1970
RPK (trillion)
Oil Crisis
Gulf Crisis
+45%*
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010 E
* since 2000
8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
Real & forecast GDP
7.8%
-2% -4% Q1
Traffic ASKs
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2007
2008
2009
2010
16%
12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12%
United States Western Europe Emerging Economies*
Traffic up
13.7%
Traffic up
5.4% 4.9%
M M
M M
M M
M M
2007
2008
2009
2010
2009
100-250 millions 250-1000 millions
2029
1-5 billions >5 billions
8%
6%
4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Emerging economies*
Mature economies
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
5.9
billion
people 2009
0.9
billion
people 2009
3 12
China Mainland
Backlog
Fleet in service
47
112 12
565
322 280
3
23
India
Backlog
Source: Ascend
Montreal
New York Washington
Toronto
Zurich
Los Angeles
Jeddah
Singapore Airlines Emirates Qantas Air France Lufthansa
Additional airline-announced routes for 2011 shown dotted
Dubai
Bangkok
Hong Kong
Singapore
Johannesburg
Over 9 million passengers have enjoyed the A380 experience in the first three years
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
North America
3.4% 3.8%
2.9%
1.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -1.8% -2.2%
Europe
0.9%
Asia-Pacific
-4.7%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
4.8%
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
0.0 1970
Replacement of aircraft in service in mature markets Dynamic growth in emerging markets Continued growth of LCCs, especially in Asia Greater and continued market liberalization Traffic growth on the existing route network where it is more efficient to add capacity than frequency
2009 traffic
27% 28%
Europe
North America
+3.3%
Middle East
+6.8%
28%
6% 5% 3% 3%
4.8%
Latin America +5.5%
6%
4% 3%
Africa
+5.8%
CIS
+4.7%
RPK (trillion)
17,870 16,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
0 Single-aisle & Small jet freighters Small-twin aisle & Regional freighters Intermediate twin-aisle & Long range freighters
% units % value
69% 40%
17% 26%
7% 16%
7% 18%
16,000
16,980
17,870
GMF 2009
GMF 2010
12,000
8,000
4,000
4,240 4,330 2,010 1,910 1,730 1,740 Large aircraft & Large freighters
0 Single-aisle & Small jet freighters Small-twin aisle & Regional freighters Intermediate twin-aisle & Long range freighters
% units % value
69% 40%
17% 26%
7% 16%
7% 18%
69% 40%
17% 26%
7% 16%
7% 18%
80
60 40 20 0
1982
2004
1980
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Efficiency
A320 + Sharklets
Today
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2024
2025
2026
2027
Sharklets:
Over 3.5% fuel burn saving on long sectors Improved field performance
Includes the combined benefit of Sharklets and new engines (up to15% fuel burn saving)
A320 Family in-service statistics: Total take-offs: Over 50 million Average daily utilisation: 8.7FH (up to 14.5FH) Fleet reliability: 99.7%
A320neo will have a high level of systems and avionics commonality with the A320
A320 systems and avionics are proven to be highly reliable only 1 delay per 500 flights
The best of what we have today with MUCH better fuel burn
Summary
A market for more than 25,800 new passenger and freighter aircraft.
Christopher Emerson
Senior Vice President Market & Product Policy
Economics
Growth
Demographics
Population growth
Age profiles Middle class
Networks
Global cities
Hubs
Emerging markets
Trade Cycles
Urbanisation
New routes
Deregulation
Passengers
Ticket price Comfort
Airlines
Fuel
Range Fleet mix
Aircraft
Seats, speed, utilisation
Business models
Environment
16%
12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12%
United States Western Europe Emerging Economies*
Traffic up
13.7%
Traffic up
5.4% 4.9%
M M
M M
M M
M M
2007
2008
2009
2010
8%
6%
4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Emerging economies*
Mature economies
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
5.9
billion
people 2009
0.9
billion
people 2009
New Zealand
UAE
Ireland Denmark
Iceland
Brazil
Bolivia Mongolia
Uruguay China
Russia Slovakia
Oman Taiwan South Korea Saudi Arabia Estonia Israel Chile Czech Rep. Libya Slovenia Hungary
Canada UK Finland
Switzerland Qatar
0.1
Senegal
India
Angola Liberia Swaziland Bangladesh Lesotho
World average
0.01
Chad
Iraq
0.001 0 5,000
2009 real GDP per capita 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000
0
Domestic US Domestic PRC Intra West. Europe US - West. Europe P.R. China - West. Europe South America - West. Europe Asia - West. Europe Middle East - West. Europe Asia - P.R. China Domestic India Intra Asia Central Europe - West. Europe P.R. China - US Indian Sub - Middle East Japan - US Domestic Asia Asia - US Domestic Brazil North Africa - West. Europe Middle East - US
500
2009 traffic
1,000
2029 traffic
1,500
20-year growth
4.8%
RPK (trillion)
2.2% 7.0% 3.0% 4.0% 7.1% 5.3% 4.4% 5.8% 7.1% 9.2% 6.3% 6.1% 7.1% 6.3% 4.5% 6.0% 5.2% 6.2% 4.5% 7.1%
11.3% 8.4% 7.2% 5.9% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3%
2009-2029 AAGR*
<2.5%
2.5-4%
4-5.5%
5.5-7%
>7%
0
Middle East - South America North Africa - P.R. China
50
100
150
200
250
20-year growth
Domestic India 2009 traffic Middle East - South Africa Africa Sub Sahara - P.R. China Canada - Central America CIS - P.R. China
2029 traffic
8.5%
15.2% 9.5% 9.2% 9.1% 8.6% 8.5% 8.5% 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 8.2% 8.1% 8.1% 8.0% 7.8% 7.7% 7.5% 7.5% 7.4% 7.3%
0.5% 0.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7%
2009
100-250 millions 250-1000 millions
2029
1-5 billions >5 billions
1970
12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
RPK (trillion)
1990
2010
2029 68%
55%
37% 24% 32%
76%
Rest of World
63%
45%
Traffic within & between USA, Canada, Western Europe and Japan
2009
2029
Top 500/3300 cities
100-250 millions
250-1000 millions
1-5 billions
>5 billions
2009
2029
100-250 millions
250-1000 millions
1-5 billions
>5 billions
twice as fast
as nonstop traffic
140%
130%
Connecting traffic*
120%
5.8% p.a.
110% Nonstop traffic
2.9% p.a.
100% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
* Connecting traffic vs. nonstop traffic: e.g. LHR HKG SYD vs. LHR HKG
Source: IATA PaxIS (month of September), Airbus
Building flexibility to reallocate traffic through the Hub Lowering seat costs with bigger aircraft at the hub
Frequency
capacity increase
Traffic growth allocated to
frequency increase
Distance
Qualitative model; model quantitatively differentiated according to different traffic regions and traffic flows
Source: Airbus GMF 2010
A A A B
184
180
179
175
170
167
165
Retirement
Note: Passenger jet aircraft excluding regional types
Source: Ascend, Airbus
Deliveries
Asia-Pacific airlines to further strengthen their dominant position for new passenger aircraft
20-year new deliveries of passenger aircraft 0 Asia-Pacific 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
20-year total deliveries % of 20-year total deliveries
2009-2019 deliveries
2020-2029 deliveries
8,290 5,710
Europe
North America
5,610
1,790 1,690 1,050 840
Latin America
Middle East
7%
4% 3%
Africa
CIS
Specific methodology for air cargo forecast Regularly updated to reflect market trends and evolution 20 year freighter aircraft demand forecast, payload >10 tons Traffic forecast modeling 144 distinct traffic flows Fleet build-ups covering 217 freight carriers
FTKs (billions)
History
Forecast
International Domestic
100
50 0
2007
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2009
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2011
150
910 150 490
150
670
1,000
420
150
Small Jets Regional & Long Range Large
Small jet freighters: 727, 737, A320P2F, BAe 146, DC-9, Tu-204 ; Regional & long range freighters: 707, 757, 767-200, A300, A310, A321P2F, DC-8, DC10 -10, A330, 767-300, 747 Combi, DC10-30 ; Large freighters: 747F, 777, A350, MD-11, A380
17,870 16,000
12,000
8,000
4,000
0 Single-aisle & Small jet freighters Small-twin aisle & Regional freighters Intermediate twin-aisle & Long range freighters
% units % value
69% 40%
17% 26%
7% 16%
7% 18%
2009
100-250 millions 250-1000 millions
2029
1-5 billions >5 billions
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Source: Airbus
2009
100-250 millions 250-1000 millions
2029
1-5 billions >5 billions