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Illinois must reverse course. The solution? Repeal the tax hike. Its both good policy and good politics.
The tax hike allowed legislators to take a pass at resolving one of Illinois most urgent fiscal problems: the unsustainable state pension systems. Ballooning pension costs already are squeezing out spending on education and other vital services. By not reforming pensions, the fiscal crisis will only deepen. This was confirmed in January when Moodys rating agency downgraded Illinois, giving the state the worst credit rating in the nation. In justifying the rating, Moodys said Illinois took no steps to implement lasting solutions to its severe pension under-funding or to its chronic bill payment delays.
3. The tax hike made Illinois less competitive and forced businesses to leave the state.
The tax hike spurred a number of companies to leave or threaten to leave. The state resorted to handing out tax incentives to keep large businesses from leaving. This reinforced Illinois reputation of favoring the powerful and connected at the expense of everyone else. It is this perception grounded in reality that keeps many entrepreneurs from even considering Illinois as a place to found or grow their business. Illinois poor business environment is reflected in the Tax Foundations respected State Business Tax Climate Index. A forthcoming 2012 edition will show a precipitous fall for Illinois, thanks almost entirely to the personal income and corporate income tax hikes. Overall, Illinois fell to 28th place in 2012, from 16th place in 2011 (revised). In particular, Illinois fell 16 places in the corporate sub-index, dropping to 45th in the nation, from 29th prior to the tax hike. In passing the tax hikes, House Speaker Michael Madigan and Senate President John Cullerton along with the legislators who backed them ignored the many voices warning that increasing taxes was the wrong thing to do. Quinn proceeded to sign the bill. The cost to families has been high: dollars lost directly to taxes, employment prospects lost indirectly. Illinois must reverse course. The solution? Repeal the tax hike. Its both good policy and good politics. Illinoisans deserve better than being forced to feed a broken system.
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The tax hike did not resolve the states fiscal crisis. Rather, it allowed for even more spending some of it hidden by accounting gimmicks.
Source: Governors Office of Budget and Management, Illinois Economic and Fiscal Policy Report, Jan. 3, 2012.
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If Illinois wants to protect funding for its core services, the state needs to align state employee pensions with the fiscal realities of the state.
No pension reform. Rather than eliminating unpaid bills, most of the new tax revenue went to make the states contribution to the unreformed government pension systems. The payment had been borrowed in recent years, and the influx of tax dollars allowed legislators to make the payment and put off worrying about the rapidly increasing payment schedule for the unreformed system to another day (see Graphic 2). This failure to act was recognized recently by Moodys, the credit rating agency, when it gave Illinois the worst credit rating of any state in the
nation. In its report, Moodys said Illinois took no steps to implement lasting solutions to its severe pension under-funding or to its chronic bill payment delays. The agency also added that Illinois has weak management practices. If Illinois wants to protect funding for its core services, the state needs to align state employee pensions with the fiscal realities of the state. Across the nation, states are implementing solutions that have reduced the burden on taxpayers and increased the security of state employee retirements. Illinois should do the same.
Graphic 2. Growth in state pension appropriations fiscal years 2008 - 2013 (in millions)
*Certified as of Nov. 15, 2011 Source: COGFA and the State Journal-Register
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Illinois economy was on the way to recovery in 2010 as unemployment fell sharply from a high topping 11 percent (see Graphic 3). But that was before the tax hike. By November 2011, Illinois unemployment rate jumped to 10 percent from a low of 8.7 percent
seven months prior, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Illinois upward unemployment rate is in sharp contrast to the national rate, which dropped during that same time period. Since the tax hike, 82,000 fewer Illinoisans are employed and 61,000 more have joined the unemployment rolls, according to the Bureau.
Graphic 3. Unemployment rates: Illinois vs. U.S., January 2010 to November 2011
In November 2011, Illinois unemployment rate jumped to 10 percent from a low of 8.7 percent seven months prior.
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Tax increases drain resources from the private sector, stealing the resources needed to expand businesses and hire new workers for the long haul.
Comparing Illinois to its neighboring states tells a similar story. Those states clearly are outperforming Illinois. Their unemployment rate as a group is just slightly above 8 percent (calculated as a weighted average based on each states respective labor force), almost two points below Illinois unemployment rate.
Tax increases drain resources from the private sector, stealing the resources needed to expand businesses and hire new workers for the long haul. What families need today are sustainable jobs that help put food on the table. The best long-term solution for Illinoisans, especially the poor and disadvantaged, is more employment through lower taxes and a better business climate.
Graphic 4. Unemployment rates: Illinois vs. neighboring states (weighted average), January 2010 to November 2011
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3. The tax hike made Illinois less competitive and forced businesses to leave the state.
Thanks to the tax hike, Illinois now has one of the highest corporate tax rates in country.9 In 2011, it became evident that many businesses, large and small, had reached a breaking point with state government. Month after month, companies left or threatened to leave, while others hired lobbyists to seek relief. In reaction to the threats, Gov. Quinn and the legislature used some of the $700 million in new corporate income tax revenues to provide relief that overwhelmingly favored Illinois largest corporations. While these carve outs will ward off a few important departures, they will do little to help businesses without access to pricey lobbyists.
The totality of the business tax climate encompasses many factors, and the nonpartisan Tax Foundation has developed a comparative index that ranks the states. A special preview of their forthcoming 2012 State Business Tax Climate Index reflects the negative impact of the personal and corporate tax hikes. Illinois overall ranking dropped to 28th in the nation, from 16th in 2011 (1=best, 2011 score was revised). The corporate income tax sub-index component shows an even more dramatic drop in Illinois standing, to 45th place in 2012 from 29th in 2011. Bringing prosperity back to Illinois requires shedding our poor tax policies.
Bringing prosperity back to Illinois requires shedding our poor tax policies.
$113.5 million
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A January 2012 Pulse of Illinois poll found that 68 percent of voters oppose the income tax hike, and 65 percent are not confident that the tax hike revenue was used responsibly.
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Q2. Has the tax increase put Illinois back on sound fiscal footing and strengthened the Illinois economy?
Yes, Illinois is back on sound fiscal footing and we have a strong economy No, Illinois isn't back on sound fiscal footing and the economy isn't strong
7% 78% 14%
Oppose
Not sure
Not sure
Q3. How confident are you that revenue from the tax hike has been used responsibly?
Very or somewhat confident Not very or not at all confident
Q4. According to current state law, the tax hike will be partially rolled back in 2015 and will fully expire by 2025.Should the tax hike be repealed immediately, should it be allowed to expire as scheduled or should the tax hike be made permanent?
The tax hike should be repealed immediately The tax hike should be allowed to expire as scheduled The tax hike should be made permanent
53% 31% 9% 7%
Not sure
Not sure
Q5. Generally speaking does the Illinois business climate make it more likely that businesses will leave Illinois or more likely that businesses will move to Illinois?
More likely to leave Illinois
Not sure
Source: Illinois survey of 500 likely voters, conducted Jan. 8, 2012 by Pulse Opinion Research. Margin of sampling error +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
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Endnotes
1 Griffin-Johnson, Amanda. Fact Finder: Recent Tax Hike Is Highest in Illinois History. Rep. Illinois Policy Institute. Web. <http://articles.chicagotribune. com/2011-05-25/news/ct-edit-legis-20110525_1_ borrowing-2-percentage-point-income-tax-pension-system>. 2 Quinn, Pat. Speech. Post Tax Hike Press Conference. Press Room, Springfield.Youtube. com. 12 Jan. 2011 <http://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=U2kcieIEyfQ>. 3 96th General Assembly Regular Session Senate Transcript. State House, Springfield. 11 Jan. 2011. ILGA.gov. <http://ilga.gov/senate/transcripts/ strans96/09600144.pdf>. 4 96th General Assembly House of Representatives Transcription Debate. State House, Springfield. 11 Jan. 2011. ILGA.gov. <http://ilga.gov/house/ transcripts/htrans96/09600165.pdf> 5 Illinois. Governors Office of Management and Budget. Illinois Economic and Fiscal Policy Report. 3 Jan. 2012. 5 Jan. 2012 <http://www2.illinois.gov/ budget/Documents/2012%20Economic%20and%20 Fiscal%20Policy%20Report.pdf>. 6 United States. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Local Area Statistics. Http://www.bls.gov/lau/. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 20 Dec. 2011. Web. 10 Jan. 2012. 7 Ingram, Jonathan. Medicaid FAIL: Why cutting appropriations doesnt control costs. Rep. 8 Nov. 2011. Illinois Policy Institute. 5 Jan. 2012 <http://www.illinoispolicy.org/news/article. asp?ArticleSource=4503>. 8 Illinois. Governors Office of Management and Budget. Illinois Economic and Fiscal Policy Report. 3 Jan. 2012. 5 Jan. 2012 < http://www2.illinois.gov/ budget/Documents/2012%20Economic%20and%20 Fiscal%20Policy%20Report.pdf>. 9 The Tax Foundation - Tax Research Areas Illinois. The Tax Foundation - Educating Taxpayers Since 1937. 05 Jan. 2012 <http://www. taxfoundation.org/research/topic/26.html>.
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