DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 November, 2011
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

MA RK ET
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA

S-TERM
MULTI-DAY

L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/ POSITION

ENTRY LEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS

STOP

SHORT 3 34.1300 Sell limit 3 LONG 3 SHORT 2 Buy limit 3 SHORT 2 SHORT 3 Sell stop 3 0.9100 1.0250 1.0570 122.70 106.45 0.8555 1.2130 Buy limit 3 1.5840

Exited at 1.3655. Achieved PT1 Objective. 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400 Await New Buy Trade Setup. 0.9000/0.8750/0.8550 1.0360/1.0480/1.0670 (Entered on 10/11/2011) 1.0010/0.9710 (Entered 01/11/2011) 124.10/126.00/127.32 104.00/100.76 (Entered 09/11/2011) 0.8455/0.8285/0.8068 (Entered 11/11/2011) 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup. 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 35.6880 0.9200 1.0050 1.0470 121.30 106.45 0.8655 1.2230 1.5740

USD/CAD AUD/USD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/GBP

Bijoy Kar, CFA

EUR/CHF GOLD SILVER

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01

EUR/USD EUR/USD
EUR/USD (Daily)
BERMUDA TRIANGLE FAILED
BREAKOUTS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 November, 2011

Resuming sharp reversal into 1.3140.

Exited at 1.3655. Achieved first price objective. EUR/USD is resuming its sharp reversal from key overhead resistance

BREAKOUT ZONE

(primarily an important 2 year trend-line). The dramatic move has confirmed the emotionally charged bull-trap that we had anticipated, which has been driven by recent positive EU News. The recent break under 1.3653 (18
th

(1.4000)

200-DMA (1.4104)

SHARP REVERSAL AT KEY RESISTANCE TARGETS 1.3000 & 1.2870

Oct low) unlocks further downside

scope into 1.3146 (Oct swing low) and that all-important psychological level at 1.3000. Further pressure is also weighing from broad risk-related proxies. The euro currently shares a high correlation of 0.85% with the S&P500 which is now

UPTREND (2 YEARS)

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD INDEX
200-DMA (75.72)
6 MONTH HIGH
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9% CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

falling sharply from its recent multi-week highs. Inversely, USD Index has turned back higher above its long-term 200-day MA. The bulls are likely to recapture the recent 6-month highs near 80. Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are holding steady around their recent spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely
+27% +19%
+10%
SO FAR

USD INDEX (4 YEARS)

remain strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

BREAKOUT ZONE

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

Special Report: EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.

VIDEO

3 STD ABOVE ONE YEAR AVERAGE

MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months. US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

TRIGGER (15000)
DEMARK BUY SIGNALS

13

KEY SUPPORT (73.50-73.00)

COT LIQUIDITY

EXTREME NET US $ SHORT POSITIONS

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Exited at 1.3655. Achieved PT1 Objective.

USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2

GBP/USD
Support expected near 1.5853.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 November, 2011

A break back over the 1.6127 high would lead us to remove the strategy below from the report. GBP/USD continues to trade close to the recent low at 1.5877 after failing to break over the recent high at 1.6167, maintaining our structural arguement that the rise from 1.5877 is a corrective. Scope is now seen for a final swing lower to test the old platform near 1.5853, ahead of a possible higher low versus 1.5632 for a fresh swing back towards 1.6167. Medium-term structure is dominated by a generally range bound environment, with a return to the highs of the annual range possible, near 1.6618/1.6747. GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Our bias remains positive due to the near-term bullish

structure that is in place. While above 1.5632 further strength is favoured. However, if this region fails to contain the current corrective phase, then the bias will turn negative again. Sterling is expected to stay stronger then most, should the US Dollar enter into a strengthening phase.

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 1.5840, Objs: 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400, Stop: 1.5740.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3

USD/JPY
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 November, 2011

POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT (PIR I)

Probability now favours retracement to pre-intervention levels.

USD/JPY is edging lower, with the growing probability of another price retracement back to pre-intervention levels (PIR) and potentially even a new

QUAKE SHOCK! 83.30

POST G7 MOVE (I) HIGH

post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL). Furthermore, sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone in the market continues to try and be the first to call the market bottom.
82.00

This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

POST BOJ MOVE (II) HIGH

psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,
80.24

which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal. The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a

USD/JPY Weekly (2007 2011)

ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN BREAKOUT TARGET (85-79)

PIR II

POST BOJ MOVE (III) HIGH

major long-term 40 year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30. Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark exhaustion signals, within the ending diagonal pattern, launhcing a powerful recovery into 91.00.
Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY. Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change

MONTHLY DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEAD OF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.

USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4

USD/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 November, 2011

Under 0.8960 will warn of the end to the corrective phase.

USD/CHF may have completed a symmetrical correction from the low at 0.8568, after reaching 0.9151 yesterday. We now wait to see if the 0.9151 high can contain price on the upside. Also, if a break under 0.8923 can be realised then this would increase the probability of a return to weakness. While below 0.9316, medium-term structure is suggestive of a re-test of the zone close to 0.8242, ahead of a possible return to 0.9316. However,

should EUR/CHF reach the 1.2000 level again, then movement in USD/CHF may be affected by the efforts of the SNB to maintain the floor in EUR/CHF. Back under 0.7712 is required to change the medium-term bullish bias. Safe haven flows may yet intensify into the Swiss Franc as Italian USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP government bond yields push higher despite last weeks ECB rate cut.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.9100, Objs: 0.9000/0.8750/0.8550, Stop at 0.9200

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5

USD/CAD
USD/CAD (Daily)
August High (1.0673)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 November, 2011
USD/CAD (Weekly)

Bulls hold gains above psychological 1.0000 level.

USD/CADs short-term price activity remains positive, following the sharp bullish reversal from the psychological 1.0000 level (prior trading range). Positive momentum needs to push above 1.0264 and 1.0400 to rebuild the

200-DMA (0.9823)

CONFIRMATION ABOVE 1.0680 OPENS LARGER RECOVERY

potential major upside reversal higher above the old resistance level at 1.0673 (August high & Congestion zone). Only a sustained close beneath here will unlock bearish setbacks into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9823 and 0.9726 (31 Aug low). A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger
st

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.

USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

MAJOR RESISTANCE

CHF/CAD (Daily)
REVERSAL PATTERN

EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-month trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high), which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern. CHF/CAD is retesting its support nearby the 200-day MA at 1.1314, following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.

50%

(1.3570)
61.8% 50% 200-DMA (1.3841)

(1.3379)

(1.1488)

61.8%

(1.0893)
200-DMA (1.1314)

EUR/CAD (Daily)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Long 3: 1.0250, Objs:1.0360/1.0480/1.0670, Stop: 1.0050

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6

AUD/USD
AUD/USD
(1 YEAR)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 November, 2011
AUD/USD
(Weekly)

Sharp setbacks weigh.

AUD/USDs sharp setbacks continue to weigh. The move was triggered from key resistance at 1.0765 (01st Sept high) and is now holding beneath
STRUCTURAL LEVEL

the 200-day MA (1.0417).

3 YEAR UPTREND IS UNDER PRESSURE

38.2%

(0.9144)
50%

A sustained move below here is likely to mount downside pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend. Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand dollar. The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and 1.2100. The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 83.11. Near-term support continues to hold at 77.63 (18 Oct low). A break here
th

(0.8546)
200-DMA (1.0417)

61.8%

(0.7947) KEY ZONE

AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD (Daily) AUD/JPY (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNAL

will resume downside scope into 76.70 and signal further unwinding of risk
13

appetite.

200-DMA CAPS BEAR MKT 38.2%

(76.70)
50%

200DMA (83.12)

(72.58)
61.8%

(68.47)

RESUMPTION OF BREAKDOWN ADDS TO RISK AVERSION

KEY SUPPORT 1.2319 / 1.2100

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 1.0570, Obj: 1.0010/0.9710, Stop: 1.0470

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7

GBP/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 November, 2011

Approaches a region where support is anticipated.

GBP/JPY is approaching a region where a degree of support would be anticipated, just ahead of the 122.38/65 platform. Should a fall down to these levels be realised, this would also potentially complete the corrective structure that has been witnessed since 127.32. The fall down to the current trading zone also unwinds the surge higher that took place at the very end of October. It is this unwinding that we have been expecting ahead of any potential fresh strength. Bigger picture a rise towards 129.00/130.00 is possible, given the daily structure present since 116.84. A push back under 121.39 is needed to negate this positive structure. GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 122.70, Objs: 124.10/126.00/127.32, Stop: 121.30

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8

EUR/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 November, 2011

Meets initial resistance close to the 38.2% retrace.

EUR/JPY formed a corrective structure in the hourly timeframe and has subsequently broken under 106.50. This now triggers the bearish flag that we had seen in the daily timeframe, warning of further losses towards 104.00 and possibly lower. Yesterday saw support close to the 61.8% retrace of the 100.76 111.60 rise, after meeting 104.73. From there a test of the region close to the 38.2% retrace of the 108.25 104.73 fall has already taken place. Failure to hold under this 38.2% retrace will warn of a minimum return to the 106.50 region. Structure present since 108.25 also suggests scope for a further leg lower EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP back towards 100.76 if a sustained break under 104.75/3 can be achieved. A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the outlook bullish.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
SHORT 2 at 106.45, Objs:104.00/100.76, Stop: 106.45

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9

EUR/GBP

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 November, 2011

Breaks under long-term trend-line support.

EUR/GBP is re-testing old trend-line support as resistance after pushing out of a three month range with a break under 0.8530/31. This now warns of a larger breakout to the downside to target 0.8285/0.8068. Such a move will be assisted by the perception of Sterling as a safe haven, assuming the yields of Italian government bonds can stay elevated. In the near-term, a break back over 0.8652 is required to neutralise the outlook once again. In the meantime a lower high is sought for a further extension lower. Failure to hold under the old double bottom and trend-line will warn of a false break lower, with a danger that trade returns back into the old trading range. Meantime scope is seen for a near-term return to 0.8486 initially. EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Short 3 at 0.8555, Objs: 0.8455/0.8285/0.8068, Stop: 0.8655

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10

EUR/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 November, 2011

Continued resistance expected close to 1.2500.

EUR/CHF has remained strong particularly in light of the movement in Italian government bond markets, where 10 year yields are maintaining a foothold over 6.00%. Also, as mentioned before, it highlights the inability of the ECB to contain sovereign debt yields by simply lowering the base rate. This may lead to a renewed desire for a safe haven, with downside pressure returning to EUR/CHF. Initial resistance has been seen close to the recent high at 1.2474, with scope for a further correction, towards 1.2300 initially. Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this would warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the probability of a return to this level. EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP In any case, strong resistance is anticipated should this rate reach the 1.2500 zone. The recent failure to maintain trade above the 50 week

moving average is also noted. Time will tell whether or not the SNB will be able to hold back the possible flow of funds into Swiss Francs that may occur if further stresses lead to yet higher yields in Italian government bonds.

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

www.migbank.com

Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11

GOLD
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 November, 2011

RISK ZONE III

DOUBLE TOP

Positive for the short-term.

Gold remains fragile after its dramatic 20% price fall, which helped confirm the extreme overbought conditions (marked by DeMark indicators). This also timed a key cycle peak, ahead of that all-important $2000 glass-ceiling. However, short-term price activity is building constructively higher around key level at 1760. A sustained move above here would open moves into

DEMARK SIGNAL WARNED OF GOLDS OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS

20% SO FAR

$1760 $1704

$1600

34%
$1532
BREAKOUT 200-DMA NOT BROKEN IN 3 YEARS!

1844. Speculative (net long) flows remain a concern having recently breached a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold positions. There is heightened risk of a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close beneath $1600 and $1554-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not been breached in 3 years! A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still

26%
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530 UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000 TREND CHANNEL
(12 YEARS)

COT NET LONG SPECULATOR POSITIONS

offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

I
25%
OVER 2 YEARS OF SIZEABLE LONG GOLD POSITIONS UNDER THREAT IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

Special Report Golds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box
(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)

VIDEO

MIG Bank Gold Webinar video

II

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12

SILVER
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! Silver (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS DEMARK SELL SIGNAL

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 November, 2011

13

Key support at $26.0700.

Silver has developed a short-term recovery from its previous swing low at 26.0700. However, macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This

200 DMA (36.5125)

II

allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

KEY SUPPORT (26.0700)

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

38.2%

(32.3135)

multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-

Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

50%

term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher. Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated

(26.9150)

61.8%

(21.5165) 13 YEAR LEVEL

UNWINDING 67% FROM OVERSOLD TERRITORY

higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

OVER

30 YEAR BASE PATTERN

BULL MARKET FROM 1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880

Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13

LEGAL TERMS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 November, 2011

DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

www.migbank.com

14

CONTACT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

11 November, 2011

Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strategist h.friend@migbank.com

Ron William Technical Strategist r.william@migbank.com

Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist b.kar@migbank.com

MIG BANK info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 15