Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
TRAINING
A B
Amazon.com Inc
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
Income Statement
2008
Actual
2009
2010
Estimated
2011
2012
Projected
2013
2014
2015
$ 24,509
$ 24,509
(18,978)
$ 5,531
$ (2,052)
$ (680)
$ (1,240)
$ (102)
(328)
$ 1,129
(34)
29
37
$ 1,161
(253)
(6)
$ 902
$ 34,204
$ 34,204
(26,561)
$ 7,643
$ (2,898)
$ (1,029)
$ (1,734)
$ (106)
(470)
$ 1,406
(39)
79
51
$ 1,497
(352)
7
$ 1,152
$ 41,045
$ 41,045
(31,750)
$ 9,295
$ (3,560)
$ (1,317)
$ (2,081)
$ (168)
(646)
$ 1,523
(94)
103
113
$ 1,646
(411)
18
$ 1,252
$ 43,507
$ 43,507
(33,525)
$ 9,983
$ (3,773)
$ (1,396)
$ (2,206)
$ (178)
(772)
$ 1,658
(121)
109
165
$ 1,811
(453)
44
$ 1,402
$ 47,423
$ 47,423
(36,399)
$ 11,024
$ (4,113)
$ (1,522)
$ (2,404)
$ (194)
(936)
$ 1,855
(130)
119
212
$ 2,056
(514)
109
$ 1,651
$ 53,114
$ 53,114
(40,608)
$ 12,506
$ (4,606)
$ (1,704)
$ (2,693)
$ (218)
(1,155)
$ 2,130
(148)
133
277
$ 2,392
(598)
273
$ 2,068
$ 61,081 % Growth
$ 61,081 Sum
(46,516) % of Net Sales
$ 14,565 Sum
$ (5,297)
$ (1,960)
$ (3,097)
$ (250)
(1,450) % of Revenue
$ 2,511 Sum
(166) Debt Sweep
153
355 Debt Sweep
$ 2,853 Sum
(713) Tax Rate
684 % Growth
$ 2,823 Sum
432
442
456
456
456
456
456
$ 1.49
$ 2.04
$ 2.53
$ 2.74
$ 3.07
$ 3.62
$ 4.53
$ 1,153
6.0%
$ 1,513
6.2%
$ 1,958
5.7%
$ 2,185
5.3%
$ 2,360
5.4%
$ 2,620
5.5%
$ 2,987
5.6%
Fiscal
Revenue
Net Sales
14,835
$ 19,166
Total Revenue
$ 19,166
Cost of Sales
(14,896)
Gross Profit
$ 4,270
Fullfillment
$ (1,658)
Marketing
$ (482)
Technology and Content
$ (1,033)
Other Operating (expense) income, net
$ 24
Operating, SG&A Expenses
(279)
Operating Income
$ 842
Interest Expense
(71)
Other Income
47
Interest Income
83
Pre-Tax Income
$ 901
Income Taxes
(247)
Equity Investment Activity
(9)
Net Income
$ 645
Diluted Shares Outstanding
Diluted Earnings per Share
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin
Projection Notes
456
$ 6.19 Net Income / Diluted S/O
$ 3,497 Op. Inc + Depr + Amort
5.7% EBITDA / Revenue
3.0%
0.02%
0.20%
0.20%
0.00%
0.10%
29.2%
0.25%
(8.7)%
(2.5)%
(5.4)%
0.1%
27.9%
0.12%
(8.4)%
(2.8)%
(5.1)%
(0.4)%
39.6%
0.23%
(8.5)%
(3.0)%
(5.1)%
(0.3)%
20.0%
0.25%
(8.7)%
(3.2)%
(5.1)%
(0.4)%
6.0%
0.25%
(8.7)%
(3.2)%
(5.1)%
(0.4)%
9.0%
0.25%
(8.7)%
(3.2)%
(5.1)%
(0.4)%
12.0%
0.25%
(8.7)%
(3.2)%
(5.1)%
(0.4)%
(0.3)%
0.2%
77.7%
1.5%
77.4%
1.3%
77.7%
1.4%
77.4%
1.6%
77.1%
1.8%
76.8%
2.0%
76.5%
2.2%
(33.3)%
(216.7)%
150.0%
150.0%
150.0%
150.0%
21.8%
23.5%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
80613502.xls<IS>
27.4%
150.0% Assumption
25.0% Assume normalized tax rate
80613502.xls<IS>
G
$ 384
1.6%
H
$ 552
1.6%
I
$ 662
1.6%
J
$ 702
1.6%
K
$ 765
1.6%
L
$ 857
1.6%
M
N
O
$ 986 % of Revenue
1.6%
A B
Amazon.com Inc
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Balance Sheet
2010
Estimated
2011
2012
Projected
2013
2014
2015
Notes
From CF statement
365 Days A/R: Revenue * No. Days / 365
365 Days Inv: COGS * No. Days / 365
% of Revenue
Assumption
Sum
($ in millions)
Actual
Fiscal
ASSETS
Current Assets
Cash & Equivalents
Marketable Securities
Inventories
Accounts Receivable, Net, and Other
Deferred Tax Assets
Total Current Assets
2009
$ 3,444
2,922
2,171
988
272
$ 9,797
$ 3,777
4,985
3,202
1,587
196
$ 13,747
$ 5,500
5,982
4,002
1,904
167
$ 17,555
$ 7,076
6,341
4,409
2,019
142
$ 19,986
$ 9,228
6,912
4,986
2,200
120
$ 23,447
$ 11,825
7,741
5,785
2,464
102
$ 27,919
$ 15,220
8,902
6,882
2,834
87
$ 33,925
$ 1,290
18
1,234
1,474
$ 13,813
$ 2,414
22
1,349
1,265
$ 18,797
$ 2,152
22
1,349
1,518
$ 22,595
$ 1,649
22
1,349
1,609
$ 24,616
$ 1,084
22
1,349
1,754
$ 27,656
$ 427
22
1,349
1,964
$ 31,681
LIABILITIES
Current Liabilities
Revolver
Accounts Payable
Accrued Expenses and Other
Accrued Income Taxes
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Current Portion of Capital Leases
Discontinued Operations
Total Current Liabilities
$9
5,605
1,759
$ 7,373
$4
8,051
2,321
$ 10,376
$ 309
9,738
2,785
$ 12,832
$ 10,403
2,952
$ 13,355
$ 11,427
3,218
$ 14,645
$ 12,896
3,604
$ 16,501
$ 14,943
4,145
$ 19,088
Long-Term Liabilities
Commitments and Contingencies
Deferred Income Taxes & Other
Minority Interest
TOTAL LIABILITIES
$ 1,192
$ 8,565
$ 1,561
$ 11,937
$ 2,083
$ 14,915
$ 2,384
$ 15,739
$ 2,685
$ 17,330
$ 2,986
$ 19,487
$ 2,759
$ 21,847
SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Common Stock
APIC
Retained Earnings
Treasury Stock
Accumulated Other Comp. Income
TOTAL SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
$5
5,736
172
(600)
(56)
$ 5,257
$5
6,325
1,324
(600)
(190)
$ 6,864
$5
6,144
2,380
(600)
(190)
$ 7,739
$5
5,963
3,615
(600)
(190)
$ 8,793
$5
5,782
5,125
(600)
(190)
$ 10,122
$5
5,601
7,072
(600)
(190)
$ 11,888
$ 5 Held constant
5,420 Beg Bal + Stock Issued
9,793 Beg Bal + Net Inc - Dividends - Repurchases
(600) Held constant
(190) Constant
$ 14,428 Sum
$ 13,822
$ 18,801
$ 22,654
$ 24,532
$ 27,452
$ 31,375
$ 36,276 Sum
$ (9)
$ (4)
$ (58)
$ 83
$ 204
$ 306
$ 24,509
18,978
328
$ 34,204
26,561
470
$ 41,045
31,750
646
$ 43,507
33,525
772
$ 47,423
36,399
936
$ 53,114
40,608
1,155
43.5
41.8
4.0%
6.0%
53.2
44.0
4.6%
3.7%
53.2
46.0
4.6%
3.7%
53.2
48.0
4.6%
3.7%
53.2
50.0
4.6%
3.7%
53.2
52.0
4.6%
3.7%
15.00%
2.0
$ 921 Calculation
$ 61,081 From Income Statement
46,516 From Income Statement
1,450 From Income Statement
53.2 A/R * 365 / Revenue
54.0 Inventory * 365 / COGS, decrease by .5 days
4.6% Prepaid / Revenue
3.7% Other Assets / Revenue
Hamilton Lin, www.wallst-training.com
A B
Amazon.com Inc
2
3
4
5
6
59
60
61
Balance Sheet
($ in millions)
Fiscal
Days Payable Outstanding
Accrued Liabilities, % of Revenue
1.0
Actual
Estimated
2009
2010
2011
105.97
108.7
109.7
7.2%
6.8%
6.8%
2012
110.7
6.8%
Projected
2013
2014
111.7
112.7
6.8%
6.8%
2015
Notes
113.7 A/P * 365 / Total Expenses, increase by 1 day
6.8% Accrued Liabilities / Revenue
80613502.xls<BS>
Amazon.com Inc
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
Estimated
2011
2012
($ in millions)
Fiscal
Projected
2013
2014
$ 1,252
662
$ 1,402
702
$ 1,651
765
$ 2,068
857
$ (997)
(800)
(317)
(253)
1,687
464
$ (216)
$ 1,698
$ (359)
(407)
(114)
(91)
665
167
$ (139)
$ 1,965
$ (571)
(578)
(182)
(145)
1,024
266
$ (185)
$ 2,232
$ (829)
(799)
(264)
(210)
1,469
386
$ (247)
$ 2,678
$ (400)
$ (400)
$ (200)
$ (200)
$ (200)
$ (200)
$ (200)
$ (200)
$ (181)
$ 1,117
$ (181)
$ 1,584
$ (181)
$ 1,851
$ (181)
$ 2,297
606
$ 425
(8)
$ (189)
301
$ 120
301
$ 120
$ 3,777
1,723
$ 5,500
4,639
$ 5,500
1,576
$ 7,076
6,288
$ 7,076
2,152
$ 9,228
8,152
$ 9,228
2,598
$ 11,825
10,527
2015
Calculation
$ (200) Assumption
$ (200) Sum
$ (181) Assumption
- Assumption
- Assumption
$ 3,094 Sum of CFO, CFI and CFF items
301 From Debt schedule
$ 120 Sum of all CFF items, exclude row 30 !!
$ 11,825
3,395
$ 15,220
13,523
80613502.xls<CF>
Amazon.com Inc
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
Estimated
2011
2012
($ in millions)
Fiscal
Cash Available/(Required) Before Debt
Plus: Beginning Cash on Balance Sheet
Less: Minimum Cash Balance
Net Mandatory Debt Repayment / Borrowings
Cash Before Discretionary Debt Repayment / (Borrowing)
Projected
2013
2014
2015
Calculation
$ 1,117
3,777
(5,500)
301
$ (305)
$ 1,584
5,500
(5,500)
301
$ 1,885
$ 1,851
7,076
(5,500)
301
$ 3,728
$ 2,297
9,228
(5,500)
301
$ 6,325
$ 1,561
221
80
$ 1,862
$ 1,712
$ 1,862
221
80
$ 2,163
$ 2,013
$ 2,163
221
80
$ 2,464
$ 2,314
$ 2,464
221
80
$ 2,765
$ 2,615
$ 2,765
221
80
$ 3,066
$ 2,916
$4
305
$ 309
$ 156
$ 309
(309)
$ $ 154
$ $ $ -
$ $ $ -
$ $ $ -
$ 1,565
221
80
305
$ 2,171
221
(309)
$ 2,083
$ 2,171
221
80
(309)
$ 2,163
221
$ 2,384
$ 2,163
221
80
$ 2,464
221
$ 2,685
$ 2,464
221
80
$ 2,765
221
$ 2,986
$ 3,777
5,500
4,639
$ 5,500
7,076
6,288
$ 7,076
9,228
8,152
$ 9,228
11,825
10,527
3.0%
6.0%
3.0%
3.0%
6.0%
3.0%
3.0%
6.0%
3.0%
3.0%
6.0%
3.0%
$ 113
$ 165
$ 212
$ 277
$ 94
0
$ 112
9
$ 130
-
$ 148
-
Tranche 1
Beginning Balance
Mandatory Debt Repayment
Borrowings Refinance
Ending Balance
Average Balance
$ 1,561
Revolver
Beginning Balance
Discretionary Sweep
Ending Balance
Average Balance
$4
Interest Rates
Cash & Cash Equivalents
Tranche 1
Revolver
Interest Income
Cash & Cash Equivalents
Interest Expense
Tranche 1
Revolver
80613502.xls<Debt>
3.0% Assumption
6.0% Wtg'ed avg estimate
3.0% Assumption
(1 = Beginning, 2 = Average)
$ 355 If switch = 1, take interest rate *
beginning balance, else rate *
average balance
$ 166
Hamilton Lin, www.wallst-training.com
80613502.xls<Debt>
J
$ 94
K
$ 121
L
$ 130
$ 148
M
$ 166
Amazon.com Inc
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
Estimated
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Fiscal
EBITDA
EBIT
Less: Cash Taxes @ 25.0%
Tax-effected EBIT
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization
Less: Capital expenditures
Plus / (Less): Change in net working capital
Unlevered free cash flow
25.0%
WACC @
6.5%
NPV of Unlevered free cash flow @ 6.5%
EBITDA MULTIPLE METHOD
Terminal Value
EBITDA Multiple
$ 2,185
1,523
(381)
$ 1,142
662
(400)
(216)
$ 1,189
Projected
$ 2,360
1,658
(414)
$ 1,243
702
(200)
(139)
$ 1,606
$ 2,620
1,855
(464)
$ 1,391
765
(200)
(185)
$ 1,771
$ 2,987
2,130
(533)
$ 1,598
857
(200)
(247)
$ 2,007
$ 3,497
2,511
(628)
$ 1,883
986
(200)
(334)
$ 2,334
$ 7,263
9.0x
10.0x
Undiscounted Discounted
$ 31,469
$ 22,969
$ 34,966
$ 25,521
$ 30,232 $ 32,784
$ 32,444
$ 71.15
$ 34,996
$ 76.75
Total Debt
Cash
Net Debt
S/Out
$ 1,565
(3,777)
$ (2,212)
456.0
2.0%
3.0%
Undiscounted Discounted
$ 42,684
$ 31,154
$ 55,417
$ 40,448
$ 38,417 $ 47,711
$ 40,629
$ 49,923
$ 89.10 $ 109.48
80613502.xls<DCF>
Amazon.com Inc
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
Methodology
Statistic
Relevant Multiple
Range
Implied Enterprise
Value
Implied Equity
Value
0.55x
0.55x
0.50x
$ 17,102
$ 16,418
$ 17,403
$ 18,812
$ 22,575
$ 21,754
$ 19,314
$ 18,630
$ 19,615
$ 21,024
$ 24,787
$ 23,966
$ 42.36
$ 40.86
$ 43.02
$ 46.11
$ 54.36
$ 52.56
EBITDA
2009A
2010E
2011P
$ 1,958
2,185
2,360
7.5x
7.0x
6.5x
8.0x
7.5x
7.0x
$ 14,685
$ 15,298
$ 15,340
$ 15,664
$ 16,391
$ 16,520
$ 16,897
$ 17,510
$ 17,552
$ 17,876
$ 18,603
$ 18,732
$ 37.05
$ 38.40
$ 38.49
$ 39.20
$ 40.80
$ 41.08
EBIT
2009A
2010E
2011P
$ 1,406
1,523
1,658
11.0x
9.0x
8.0x
11.5x
9.5x
8.5x
$ 15,466
$ 13,707
$ 13,263
$ 16,169
$ 14,469
$ 14,092
$ 17,678
$ 15,919
$ 15,475
$ 18,381
$ 16,681
$ 16,304
$ 38.77
$ 34.91
$ 33.94
$ 40.31
$ 36.58
$ 35.75
EPS
2009A
2010E
2011P
$ 2.53
2.74
3.07
19.0x
15.5x
12.5x
20.0x
16.0x
13.5x
$ 19,676
$ 17,189
$ 15,314
$ 20,828
$ 17,815
$ 16,716
$ 21,888
$ 19,401
$ 17,526
$ 23,040
$ 20,027
$ 18,928
$ 48.00
$ 42.55
$ 38.43
$ 50.53
$ 43.92
$ 41.51
$ 200,000
$ 250,000
$ 175,000
$ 225,000
$ 50.00
$ 60.00
$ 53.61
$ 39.20
$ 34.14
$ 45.47
$ 61.11
$ 41.35
$ 35.68
$ 50.53
Reference Range
Analysis of Selected Retail Acquisitions
LTM
Net Revenue
$ 34,204
EBITDA
1,958
EBIT
1,406
EPS
2.53
0.65x
8.0x
9.5x
18.0x
0.75x
8.5x
10.0x
20.0x
Reference Range
Analysis of Selected Premiums Paid
Stock Price 1 Month Prior
$ 55.28
5/7/2010
1 Day Prior
53.23
10.0%
5.0%
20.0%
15.0%
Reference Range
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
EBITDA Multiple Method
Perpetuity Growth Method
Reference Range
9.0x
2.0%
10.0x
3.0%
$ 22,233
$ 15,664
$ 13,357
$ 18,524
$ 25,653
$ 16,643
$ 14,060
$ 20,828
$ 250,000
$ 24,445
$ 17,876
$ 15,569
$ 20,736
$ 27,865
$ 18,855
$ 16,272
$ 23,040
$ 300,000
$ 225,000
$ 275,000
$ 60.00
$ 65.00
$ 25,516
$ 23,275
$ 28,037
$ 25,702
$ 27,728
$ 25,487
$ 30,249
$ 27,914
$ 60.81
$ 55.89
$ 66.34
$ 61.21
$ 250,000
$ 275,000
$ 225,000
$ 250,000
$ 60.00
$ 65.00
$ 30,232
$ 38,417
$ 32,784
$ 47,711
$ 32,444
$ 40,629
$ 34,996
$ 49,923
$ 71.15
89.10
$ 76.75
109.48
$ 225,000
$ 250,000
$ 200,000
$ 225,000
$ 50.00
$ 60.00
80613502.xlsRef Range
Amazon.com Inc
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$47.57
$50.00
$55.99
$60.00
$60.00
$65.00
$60.00
$65.00
$50.00
$60.00
$55.00
$62.50
METHODOLOGY
80613502.xlsFootball
min
$47.57
$50.00
$60.00
$60.00
$50.00
$55.00
8.42
10.00
5.00
5.00
10.00
7.50
max
$55.99
$60.00
$65.00
$65.00
$60.00
$62.50
$ 54.20
$ 54.20
0
1