Communications

Future (Im)perfect
Its the start of a new year and the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is once again grabbing headlines; which means there are a slew of forecasts about the future of media technology. In keeping with the spirit of the occasion, Ill make a prediction of my own; and that is, most other predictions will be wrong. Its not that Im more prescient than the next guy. Its just that I have history on my side. Historically, as many as 80 percent of technological forecasts have gone awry. There are a variety of explanations, from self-interest to self-delusion; from wishful thinking to out-and-out fantasizing. Plus a host of non-technical factors economics, politics and social issues can skew results. But one key reason most high-tech fortunetelling falls short is timing. Traditionally, it has taken a generation or more for most communication technologies to become a fixed part of both the national psyche and economy. The telephone, for example, took 70 years to reach critical mass, and only after originally being marketed as a means to deliver music, news and religious services. A progeny the videophone has repeatedly surfaced since the 1960s, and may have at last found a home on mobile systems. True, some technologies have managed to expedite the process. Last years most buzzed about gadget at CES was the tablet computer, which seemingly first emerged in 2010 in the form of Apples iPad. Yet a decade earlier, Bill Gates had introduced Microsofts Tablet PC at Comdex, and the company began selling the product shortly thereafter. Microsofts inability to capitalize on the tablet concept may say less about the quality of its device than its assumptions about the wants and needs of consumers. Back in 2000, desktops and laptops met most peoples computing requirements, and the fewer than half of all Americans who owned a cell phone connected via technically limited 2G networks. The very notion of mobile media was still rather arcane. Of late, stars of previous CES events, like 3D and Internet-connected TVs, have so far failed to live up to expectations. One rationale is that American consumers, after shelling out billions of dollars over the past few years for high-definition televisions (which debuted in the U.S. in 1981), are disinclined to make another such investment so soon. Whatever the reason, it is not unusual for successful systems to finally arrive long after they first appear, having lingered for years or vanishing and reappearing in various configurations. Nowhere is this more evident than in the narrative of social media. Social networks are as old as the Internet itself, which was initially created more than forty years ago to connect remote computers throughout the country. What followed were a series of virtual communities such as CompuServe, the first online chat service established in 1980; The Well, a bulletin board system with online forums that launched in 1985; and a collection of computermediated communication systems with colorful acronyms like MUD, MUSH and MOO. AOL, arguably the Internets 800-pound gorilla at the start of this century, was once the worlds largest online community. So, by the time Mark Zuckerberg came along with Facebook, he simply did what innovators have been doing since the origins of invention building on and extending the work of others into a viable commercial product.
221 Sunrise Hill Lane Norwalk, CT 06851-2145 203.847.1846 Mobile: 203.856.0803 howard@hgcommunications.com

Indeed, success of new communication technologies are rarely revolutionary. Instead, they are often subversive, becoming apparent years after being introduced into society. Such is the case with the cloud computing, a concept that dates back at least as far as the 1960s, when the late John McCarthy, then a professor at MIT, developed one of the first forms of time-shifting. The idea was resurrected more than 30 years later by techno-utopian George Gilder, who celebrated the notion of the network as computer.

-2In a perfect world, most forecasts would probably be right on. But ours is an uncertain and complex existence where, as Nobel prize winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman points out, there are too many variables and too much volatility to predict anything accurately. Nobody, for example, envisaged that social networks would play a role in the downfall of Middle Eastern despots. Moreover, research scientist Duncan Watts notes that the further in the future a prophecy is projected, the more likely it will fall short, because time increases uncertainty. Nonetheless, that doesnt stop pundits from heralding the arrivals of new technologies, no matter how prematurely. Nor does it deter the media from eagerly reporting such pronouncements, since they often have a direct stake in the outcome. As for individual and organizational users, their challenge is to decide how much time, effort and money to invest in these new systems. Though there are no standard guidelines, there are some advisable approaches: Consider the source of any prediction, since the rosiest pictures are usually painted by those with a vested interest.

Distinguish between what a technology is capable of doing and what users actually need it to do.

Actively seek other points of view.

Dont ignore the possible impact of economic, political or social factors.

Recognize the durability of existing technologies.

Finally, give innovations time to integrate themselves into society. Many of the systems and technologies we enjoy today have been in the pipeline for a long time. XXX

221 Sunrise Hill Lane Norwalk, CT 06851-2145 203.847.1846 Mobile: 203.856.0803 howard@hgcommunications.com

221 Sunrise Hill Lane Norwalk, CT 06851-2145 203.847.1846 Mobile: 203.856.0803 howard@hgcommunications.com