Wind data analysis of Dera site December 2011

1. Abstract
Ethiopia is one of the developing countries and its dependence upon imported fossil fuels can only be offset by the sustained exploitation of its indigenous resources. Wind energy is renewable and environment friendly, which can be harnessed for various end-uses. A precise knowledge of wind energy regime is a pre-requisite for the efficient planning and implementation of any wind energy project. However, due to the absence of a reliable and accurate Ethiopian Wind Atlas, further studies on the assessment of wind energy in Ethiopia are necessary. The main purpose of this paper is to present and to perform an investigation on the wind energy potential of the Dera site, East Tigray, which is located at 13 58' North, 39 47' East and its elevation is 2879 meters above sea level. The analysis is based on available wind resource data from the wind measurements on site. Mekelle University, Mechanical Engineering Department has a wind mast on the site and has been collecting the required data starting from July 2010. The height of data collection is at 10 and 30 meters above the ground level. Therefore, in this study, the wind data collected will be evaluated in order to figure out the wind energy potential of the site. The wind speed frequency distribution, wind direction distribution, average annual wind speed, wind shear (increase of wind speed with height above ground), turbulence intensity, seasonal variation, diurnal variation and direction distribution of the site will be evaluated. The Weibull probability density function and Weibull cumulative distribution functions will be used to describe the wind speed variations in the regime. The annual energy production of the site will also be estimated. Statistical methods will be used for data analysis using the aid of EXCEL, MATLAB, Windographer and WAsP softwares. The mapping of the wind resource around the site to identify the higher potential places will be done using WAsP.

By: Addisu Dagne

Wind data analysis of Dera site December 2011

2. Introduction
Ethiopia is a developing country having no significant fossil fuel sources. It is fully reliant on imported fuel. Ethiopia spends more than 10 billion Birr every year to import fuel [MoWE, 2011]. Increasing negative effects of fossil fuel combustion on the environment in addition to its limited stock have forced many countries to explore and change to environmentally friendly alternatives that are renewable to sustain the increasing energy demand. Changing to renewable sources and the implementation of effective conservation measures would ensure sustainability. Alternatives to conventional energy sources, especially the renewable ones, are becoming increasingly attractive because of the limited fossil fuel reserves and the adverse effects associated with their use. The renewable energy resources include solar, wind, geothermal and bio-energy. All these renewable energy resources are abundant in Ethiopia. If these resources are well established, they can provide complete security of energy supply. Currently, the wind energy is one of the fastest developing renewable energy source technologies across the globe. According to World Wind Energy Report in the year 2010, the wind capacity reached worldwide 196 630 Megawatt, after 159 050 MW in 2009, 120 903 MW in 2008, and 93 930 MW in 2007. [5]. Wind energy is an alternative clean energy source compared to fossil fuel, which pollute the lower layer of the atmosphere. It has the advantage of being suitable to be used locally in rural and remote areas. Wind power in Ethiopia is complementary to hydro power. During the rainy season the country sees low wind and in the dry season the potential of wind becomes high. This creates favorable conditions to use both. Combining the two, wind and hydropower, will add value to the hydropower plants by elongating their operational time (water saving through wind). Ethiopian Electric power corporation (EEPCo) has been undergoing feasibility study in different areas of the country to identified potential sites in Ethiopia. Some of the identified potential sites are Adama (9.3 m/s), Ashegoda (8.55 m/s) and Mosobo-Harena (6.9 m/s) all 40 meters above ground. Currently EEPCo is undergoing wind farm projects in Ashegoda (120 MW) and Adama (50 MW). Other potential sites include Ayisha, Gondor, Maymekedan, Debre Birhan. [1, 2].

By: Addisu Dagne

Wind data analysis of Dera site December 2011

Dera is a place found in Tigray Region. Its geographical coordinates are 13 58' North, 39 47' East. Its elevation is 2879 meters above sea level. The aim of the present work is to evaluate the potential of wind energy in Dera site. This is done through investigating the wind characteristics at the location using statistical analysis techniques.

By: Addisu Dagne

Wind data analysis of Dera site December 2011

3. Wind Data Analysis

The wind characterization in terms of speed, direction and wind power is the first step to obtain the initial feasibility of generating electricity from wind power through a wind farm, in a given region. The most critical factor influencing the power developed by a wind energy conversion system is the wind velocity. Due to the cubic relationship between velocity and power, even a small variation in the wind speed may result in significant change in power. Speed and direction of wind at a location vary randomly with time. Apart from the daily and seasonal variations, the wind pattern may change from year to year, even to the extent of 10 to 30 per cent. Hence, the behavior of the wind at a prospective site should be properly analyzed and understood. [3]. Average wind velocity gives us a preliminary indication on a sites wind energy potential. A location having good average wind speed - say for example with a minimum of 7 m/s - is expected to be suitable for wind electric generation. However, for a detailed planning, apart from the average strength of the wind spectra, its distribution is also important. Statistical models are being successfully used for defining the distribution of wind velocity in a regime, over a given period of time. [3]. The wind speed distribution, one of the wind characteristics, is of great importance for the assessment of the wind energy potential and the performance of wind energy conversion system as well. Apart from the average strength of wind over a period, its distribution is also a critical factor in wind resource assessment. Wind turbines installed at two sites with the same average wind speed may yield entirely different energy output due to differences in the velocity distribution. The Weibull and Rayleigh functions are commonly used for fitting the measured wind speed probability distribution. The Rayleigh distribution uses one parameter, the mean wind speed. The Weibull distribution is based on two parameters k, a shape factor and c, a scale factor. Both these parameters are a function of mean wind speed and standard deviation and, thus, can better represent a wider variety of wind regimes [3, 4].

By: Addisu Dagne

Wind data analysis of Dera site December 2011 Wind power density (power per unit area of the rotor), Percentage of time for which the wind is within a useful velocity range, the most frequent wind velocity, and the velocity contributing maximum energy to the regime are some other important factors in wind energy analysis. Statistical methods will be used to analyze the wind data. In this project the Weibull probability density function and Weibull cumulative distribution functions will be used to describe the wind speed variations in the regime.

Average wind speed

One of the most important information on the wind spectra available at a location is its average velocity. In simple terms, the average velocity (Vm) is given by
Vm=1ni=nnVi

Where V is the wind velocity and n is the number of wind data. [3].

Statistical Distribution of wind velocity

Apart from the average strength of wind over a period, its distribution is also a critical factor in wind resource assessment. The Weibull law is the most frequently used model to describe the distribution of the wind speed [2, 3]. The probability density function (PDF) of the wind speed is given by:

Where: f(v) is the probability density function of the wind speed; A is the Weibull scale parameter; K is the dimensionless Weibull shape parameter The probability density function shows the occurrence probability of a certain wind speed. The corresponding cumulative probability function of the Weibull distribution is given by [3, 4].

By: Addisu Dagne

Wind data analysis of Dera site December 2011 Rayleigh distribution is the special case of Weibull distribution where the shape factor K =2. [3, 4]. The cumulative distribution function represents the time fraction or probability that the wind speed is smaller than or equal to a given wind speed. For analyzing a wind regime following the Weibull distribution, we have to estimate the Weibull parameters k and c. The common method for determining k and c is the Standard deviation method. In standard deviation method the Weibull factors k and c are estimated from the mean and standard deviation of wind data. The values of k and c in this method are given by the following expressions.

, Where V = Standard deviation and Vm = Mean wind speed which are given by the following expressions.

Wind power density and wind power class

Wind power density is a comprehensive index in evaluating the wind resource at a particular site. It is the available wind power in airflow through a perpendicular cross-sectional unit area in a unit time period. The classes of wind power density at two standard wind measurement heights are listed in Table 1.

By: Addisu Dagne

Wind data analysis of Dera site December 2011

Source: Wei Tong, 2010. Wind Power Generation and Wind turbine Design, WIT press Class 4 or greater are generally considered to be suitable for most wind turbine applications. Class 3 areas are suitable for wind energy development using tall (e.g., 50 m hub height) turbines. Class 2 areas are marginal and Class 1 areas are unsuitable for wind energy development. [6]. The wind power per unit area, P/A or wind power density is: Wind power density is the wind power per unit area of the rotor and it is directly proportional to the cube of the wind speed.

Turbulence intensity
Wind turbulence is the rapid disturbances or irregularities in the wind speed, direction, and vertical component. It is an important site characteristic, because high turbulence levels may decrease power output and cause extreme loading on wind turbine components. The most common indicator of turbulence for sitting purposes is the standard deviation () of wind speed. Normalizing this value with the mean wind speed gives the turbulence intensity (TI). This value allows for an overall assessment of a sites turbulence. TI is a relative indicator of turbulence

By: Addisu Dagne

Wind data analysis of Dera site December 2011 with low levels indicated by values less than or equal to 0.10, moderate levels to 0.25, and high levels greater than 0.25. TI is defined as TI = V Where = the standard deviation of wind speed; and V = the mean wind speed.

Wind shear
The flow of air above the ground is retarded by frictional resistance offered by the earth surface (boundary layer effect). This resistance may be caused by the roughness of the ground itself or due to vegetations, buildings and other structures present over the ground. Wind shear can be characterized by the exponent, , in the so-called power law equation:
V=VrefZZref

Where V is the wind speed at the height (Z) of interest (say, hub height), and Vref is the speed actually measured at another height Zref. The larger the shear, the more the wind speed increases at higher elevations. is the surface roughness coefficient and its value depends on factors such as surface roughness and atmospheric stability. Numerically, it lies in the range 0.050.5, with the most frequently adopted value being 0.14 which is widely applicable to low surfaces and well exposed sites. [3, 4].

Wind flow modeling

Wind speeds can vary considerably across a wind farm site if the terrain is complex (hilly) or there are changes in roughness (the height of vegetation or buildings). Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WAsP) is used to calculate these variations in wind speed. Topography, the roughness of the terrain and the obstacles will be used as inputs for a WAsP calculation.

By: Addisu Dagne

Wind data analysis of Dera site December 2011

Objectives
General objective The general objective of this project is to evaluate the wind energy potential of Dera site. This is done through investigating the wind characteristics at the location using statistical analysis techniques. Specific Objectives The specific objectives of the project include

Determination of the daily, monthly and annual average wind speed of the site Determination of the wind speed frequency distribution Determination of the prevailing (the most frequent) wind direction from the wind direction frequency distribution (wind Rose). Determination of wind power density and Wind power Class Determination of turbulence intensity Estimation of wind Shear profile of the site Estimation of the annual energy production of the site by selecting appropriate turbine power curve Mapping of wind resource around the site using WAsP

Methodology
1. Preparatory work
By: Addisu Dagne 9

Wind data analysis of Dera site December 2011

Review of literatures, study on subject related matters and site visit

1. Methodology for Data Acquisition The data used for analysis will be obtained from Mechanical Engineering Department, Mekelle University.
The department has been collecting the data starting from July 2010. The site

topography will be inspected by site visit.

The site topographical map will be obtained from Ethiopian Mapping Agency or

it can be generated from Google Earth.

Materials

Wind data from Mechanical Engineering Department

Analysis sofwares: Excel, Windographer and WAsP Excel and Windographer will be used to analyze the data and plot different graphs such

as hourly, daily and monthly variation of wind speed, wind rose, and wind frequency distribution. WAsP will be used for estimation of annual energy production of the site and mapping of wind resources across the site. Digitized contour map of the site, observed wind climate, roughness of the terrain and obstacles in site are inputs in WAsP and the output is the wind climatology of the site at any specific location across the site The raw data found from data loggers will be converted to observed wind climate (OWC) by OWC wizard in WAsP.
Digitized contour map of the site could be obtained from WAsP map editor by inserting

the topographic map of the site from Ethiopian Mapping agency or Google Earth.

Scope and Application of the project

The scope of this project is to analyze the wind data to determine the potential of the site, to check if wind power project can be installed in the site, how much energy can be produced in the

By: Addisu Dagne

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Wind data analysis of Dera site December 2011 site and to determine the wind resource mapping of the wind resource in the site. The result of this project will be a good input for further feasibility study of the site for wind energy projects.

References
1. GTZ. 2006. Feasibility Study for Wind Park Development in Ethiopia and Capacity

Building, Ashegoda Wind Park Site, Final Report.

2. GTZ. 2006. Wind Energy programme TERNA-Ethiopia, Wind data evaluation after 12

months.
3. Sathyajith Mathew, Wind Energy Fundamentals, Resource Analysis and Economics. 4. J.F. Manwell, J.G. McGowan and A.L. Rogers. 2002. Wind Energy Explained: Theory,

Design and Application. 5. WWEA, World wind energy report 2010.

6. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. 1997. Wind Resource assessment handbook.

By: Addisu Dagne

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