IJREAS Dec2011

IJREAS
Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)
ISSN: 2294-3905
HEALTH, SAFETY, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE

Dr. Bhuvnender Chaudhary* Saurabh Tripathi** Nidhi Singh***
ABSTRACT
Sustainable development in energy sector means progress in society, keeping in mind, survival of all by containing the negative retrospective effect on life, health, sustainability it all depend on our life style, habit, basic needs and desires. Do we contain our needs and think about wastage of resources and management of resources with efficient upgraded modern technology. The answer is if we look at the aspiration of everybody to conquer s Mars and Moon and a mass wealth .do they think for living simple healthy life of safety in clean environment, pure climate and atmosphere. On the other side, are we fallows environmental laws, conventions and guide lines or all these remain in books, papers and up to discussion or seminar only. If we are really sincere about sustainability, health, safety, environment and climate then we have to go beyond it, means contain our needs and desire, educate masses specially poor and down trodden, contract the expansion and growth of population, but practically in real term we think for material growth, prosperity, comforts, enjoyment and quench our greeds of amassing wealth, rather living simple life. Which is against the principle of sustainability, that is why we see and experience earthquake, tsunami, flood, eruption of volcanoes because we keep on disturbing the balance of earth, when earth balance its credit with debit then we think for sustainability but soon we forget and keep on disbalancing again, earth repeat the same process again but how long . This equation of balance and disbalance will continue. Keywords: Health, Safety, security, Environment.
*Dean, Department of Management Studies, Phonics Group of Institutions, Roorkee, Uttarakhand
**Asst. Professor, Department of Management Studies, Phonics Group of Institutions, Roorkee,

Uttarakhand
***Asst. Professor, Department of Management Studies, Dev Bhoomi Institute of Technology , Dehradun International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 1
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
INTRODUCTION
Development and environment work against one another. The development includes enhancement of knowledge, creation of physical assets and infrastructures through rapid industrializations all have direct bearing effect on the surrounding environment and climates which affects our lives. The one who take the benefits of the developments and one who unable to take benefits both are affected through this. The climate is changing very fastly if we study the past track of hundred years the average temperature is arisen by 2 degree Celsius, the many area on earth are drought prone and affected by flood as well as tsunami. All this is result of rapid industrialization and developments which is emitting tons of Carbons and Green house gases. Per-capita emissions are a country's total emissions divided by its population. Per-capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing countries. This is one reason industrialized countries accepted responsibility for leading climate change efforts in the Kyoto negotiations. In Kyoto, the countries that took on quantified commitments for the first period (200812) corresponded roughly to those with per-capita emissions in 1990 of two tonnes of carbon or higher. In 2005, the top-20 emitters comprised 80% of total GHG emissions (PBL, 2010. See also the notes in the following section on the top-ten emitters in 2005). Countries with a Kyoto target made up 20% of total GHG emissions. Another way of measuring GHG emissions is to measure the total emissions that have accumulated in the atmosphere over time (IEA, 2007,) over a long time period; cumulative emissions provide an indication of a country's total contribution to GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. Over the 1900-2005 periods, the US was the world's largest cumulative emitter of energy-related CO2 emissions, and accounted for 30% of total cumulative emissions (IEA, 2007,). The second largest emitter was the EU, at 23%; the third largest was China, at 8%; fourth was Japan, at 4%; fifth was India, at 2%. The rest of the world accounted for 33% of global, cumulative, energy-related CO2 emissions.
TOP-TEN EMITTERS
What follows is a ranking of the world's top ten emitters of GHGs for 2005 (MNP, 2007). The first figure is the country's or region's emissions as a percentage of the global total. The second figure is the country's/region's per-capita emissions, in units of tons of GHG percapita:
International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org
IJREAS
S.No

Countries Name Region's emissions as Region's a percentage (1 figure)
st
ISSN: 2294-3905
per-capita
emissions(units in Tons) (2nd Figure) 5.8 24.1 10.6 12.9 2.1 14.9 10.0 10.6 2.1 6.4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
China United States European Union Indonesia India Russia Brazil Japan Canada Maxico
17% 16% 11% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2%
These values are for the GHG emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production. Calculations are for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and gases containing fluorine (the F-gases HFCs, PFCs and SF6).
These estimates are subject to large uncertainties regarding CO2 emissions from deforestation; and the per country emissions of other GHGs (e.g., methane). There are also other large uncertainties which mean that small differences between countries are not significant. CO2 emissions from the decay of remaining biomass after biomass burning/deforestation are not included.
Excluding underground fires. Including an estimate of 2000 million tonnes CO2 from peat fires and decomposition of peat soils after draining. However, the uncertainty range is very large. Industrialised countries: official country data reported to UNFCCC
Apart from this many hazards chemicals are used which is effecting the life of common man aggressively no doubt the member countries of Kyoto Protocol agreements are taking pains to reduce the level of emission of carbon in fact the carbon emission has been legalised, Carbon trading permissible, the ground realties of reducing Carbon is not materialised the level carbon emission is increasing day by day due to the stress of development and rising population of the world. Till date there are so many conventions and agreements have been taken place throughout the world and these are in following orders:
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Aarhus Convention
on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-
making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters, Aarhus, 1998

Alpine Convention together with its nine protocols ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), Canberra, 1980.
o o o o
Agreed Measures for the Conservation of Antarctic Fauna and Flora Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Seals Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty
Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM Treaty) (ABMT) Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate Barcelona Convention for the Protection and Development of the Marine
Environment and Coastal Region of the Mediterranean Sea
Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal, Basel, 1989.
Biological Weapons Convention (Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological [Biological] and Toxin Weapons and on their Destruction) (BWC)
Bonn Agreement (environment) Carpathian Convention Framework Convention on the Protection and Sustainable Development of the Carpathians
Cartagena Protocol on Bio safety Chemical Weapons Convention China Australia Migratory Bird Agreement CITES Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna
Climate Change Agreement Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Seals Convention for Co-operation in the Protection and Development of the Marine and Coastal Environment of the West and Central African Region, Abidjan, 1981.
Convention for the Protection and Development of the Marine Environment and Coastal Region of the Mediterranean Sea Barcelona Convention, Barcelona, 1976. International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 4
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Convention for the Protection and Development of the Marine Environment of the Wider Caribbean Region, Cartagena de Indias, 1983.
Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment and Coastal Area of the South-east Pacific, Lima, 1981.
Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-east Atlantic OSPAR Convention, Paris, 1992.
Convention for the Protection of the Natural Resources and Environment of the South Pacific Region, Nouma, 1986.
Convention of the Protection, Management and Development of the Marine and Coastal Environment of the Eastern African Region, Nairobi, 1985.
Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters Aarhus Convention, Aarhus, 1998
Convention on Assistance in the Case of a Nuclear Accident or Radiological Emergency (Assistance Convention), Vienna, 1986.
Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), Nairobi, 1992. Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons Convention on Civil Liability for Damage Caused during Carriage of Dangerous Goods by Road, Rail, and Inland Navigation Vessels (CRTD), Geneva, 1989.
Convention on Cluster Munitions Convention on Early Notification of a Nuclear Accident (Notification Convention), Vienna, 1986.
Convention on Fishing and Conservation of Living Resources of the High Seas Convention on Long-Range Trans boundary Air Pollution Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-east Atlantic OSPAR Convention, Paris, 1992.
Convention on Nuclear Safety, Vienna, 1994. Vienna Convention on Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage, Vienna, 1963. Convention on the Conservation of European Wildlife and Natural Habitats Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals, (CMS), Bonn, 1979.
Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Flora and Fauna, (CITES), Washington DC, 1973.
Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping Wastes and Other Matter International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 5
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques
Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (ECE Watr Convention), Helsinki, 1992.
Convention on the Transboundary Effects of Industrial Accidents, Helsinki, 1992. Convention on Wetlands of International Importance Especially As Waterfowl Habitat
Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD), Paris, 1994. Convention on the Protection of the Black Sea against Pollution, Bucharest, 1992. Convention on the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea Area 1992 Helsinki Convention, Helsinki, 1992.
Conventions within the UNEP Regional Seas Programme Convention on the ban of the Import into Africa and the Control of Transboundary Movements and Management of Hazardous Wastes within Africa, Bamako, 1991.
o o o o o o o
EMEP Protocol Nitrogen Oxide Protocol Volatile Organic Compounds Protocol Sulphur Emissions Reduction Protocols 1985 and 1994 Heavy Metals Protocol POP Air Pollution Protocol Multi-effect Protocol (Gothenburg protocol) [5]
Directive on the legal protection of biotechnological inventions Energy Community (Energy Community South East Europe Treaty) (ECSEE) Espoo Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context, Espoo, 1991.
European Agreement Concerning the International Carriage of Dangerous Goods by Inland Waterways (AND), Geneva, 2000.
European Agreement concerning the International Carriage of Dangerous Goods by Road (ADR), Geneva, 1957.
FAO International Code of Conduct on the distribution and use of Pesticides, Rome, 1985.
FAO International Undertaking on Plant Genetic Resources, Rome, 1983. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), New York, 1992.
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Geneva Protocol (Protocol for the Prohibition of the Use in War of Asphyxiating, Poisonous or other Gases, and of Bacteriological Methods of Warfare)
International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships International Convention for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT), Rio de Janeiro, 1966.
International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling (ICRW), Washington, 1946. International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture International Tropical Timber Agreement, 1983 (expired) International Tropical Timber Agreement, (ITTA), Geneva, 1994. Kuwait Regional Convention for Co-operation on the Protection of the Marine Environment from Pollution, Kuwait, 1978.
Regional Convention for the Conservation of the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden Environment, Jeddah, 1982.
Kyoto Protocol - greenhouse gas emission reductions Migratory Bird Treaty Act of 1918 Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer, Montreal, 1989. North American Agreement on Environmental Cooperation Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty Putrajaya Declaration of Regional Cooperation for the Sustainable Development of the Seas of East Asia, Malaysia, 2003.
Ramsar Convention Convention on Wetlands of International Importance, especially as Waterfowl Habitat, Ramsar, 1971.
Rotterdam Convention
on the Prior Informed Consent Procedure for Certain
Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides in International Trade, Rotterdam, 1998.
Stockholm Convention Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants Stockholm, 2001.
Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapon Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space, and Under Water
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty 1996 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer, Vienna, 1985, including the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, Montreal 1987. International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 7
IJREAS

ISSN: 2294-3905
Vienna Convention on Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage, Vienna, 1963. Waigani Convention to Ban the Importation into Forum Island Countries of
Hazardous and Radioactive Wastes and to Control the Transboundary Movement and Management of Hazardous Wastes within the South Pacific Region, Waigani, 1995.
Western Regional Climate Action Initiative
Fact is this that these convections and meet remains up to the ceremonial levels and violation and emission of rules continue unstoppably the developed country agree to pay billion of $ and supply of technology to other country for climate related study and project as par the commitment of UNFCCC (United nation Forum work Convections on climate change) and industrialized country have to contain the emission of gases and carbon but these countries are fail to comply up to the expected stranded then start negotiation of reduction in convention after convention the most recent was Berlin G 77 meet there after in coupon Hagen in IPCC meet (inter governmental penal on climate change ). Now the rules are flexible and compliance is monitor with commitments and penalties for non compliance is executed this is beginning but not satisfactory there are lot many things to do and miles to go head.
EFFECT OF CARBON EMISSION

Rising temperature and climate change as seen in many part of world in shape of global warming due to green house effect extreme cold condition, cloud bursting, reduction of forestry cover, expansion of desertification and tsunami.
ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT

Physical environment is the part of a big natural process system that consists of various subsystems as atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere and biosphere that are uniquely interactive in nature. These various subsystems are closely inter-linked through their own natural processes. According to Odum (1971) and Trunk et al. (1978) Dynamic equilibrium can be achieved naturally, but the time frame of the whole process depends on the magnitude of the disturbance. Dynamic equilibrium in nature cannot be achieved if the change is too big to handle.
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Figure1: Components within a physical environment
ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
Development will always cause changes to the physical environment. Under natural condition changes can be absorbed by the physical environment through interactions of the various components to attain a dynamic equilibrium state. Actually the physical environment is capable of absorbing impact as long as it does not exceed its optimum level. If the optimum is exceeded the physical equilibrium will start to deteriorate. Interaction between each of physical subsystems is important to human beings as they are part of physical environment. Each and every component of physical environment is capable of fulfilling various human needs.
Figure 2: Environmental degradation resulting from interaction between human use system and natural process system
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
EFFECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION

One of the greatest challenges facing humanity is environmental degradation, including deforestation, desertification, pollution, and climate change an issue of increasing concern for the international community. Environmental degradation increases the vulnerability of the societies it affects and contributes to the scarcity of resources. Climate change will lead to an increase in the intensity and frequency of weather extremes, such as heat waves, floods, droughts and tropical cyclones. The people hardest hit by climate change and environmental degradation are those living in the most vulnerable areas, including coastal communities, small island nations, Sub-Saharan Africa and Asian delta regions. It is the poorest of the poor, who lack the resources to prepare, adapt and rebuild, that are most affected. Environmental degradation can lead to a scarcity of resources, such as water and farmable. Extreme weather events, such as severe flooding, increase the spread of waterborne diseases, such as malaria and diarrhoea.
The effects of the major environmental problems on both health and productivity are:
a. Water pollution and water scarcity: As per the estimation of UN, more than two million deaths and billions of illnesses a year are attributable to water pollution. Water scarcity compounds these health problems. Productivity is affected by the costs of providing safe water, by constraints on economic activity caused by water shortages, and by the adverse effects of water pollution and shortages on other environmental resources such as, declining fisheries and acquifer depletion leading to irreversible compaction. b. Air pollution: As per the estimation of UN, urban air pollution is responsible for 300,000700,000 deaths annually and creates chronic health problems for many more people. Restrictions on vehicles and industrial activity during critical periods affect productivity, as does the effect of acid rain on forests and water bodies. c. Solid and hazardous wastes: Diseases are spread by uncollected garbage and blocked drains; the health risks from hazardous wastes are typically more localized, but often acute. Wastes affect productivity through the pollution of groundwater resources. d. Soil degradation: Depleted soils increase the risks of malnutrition for farmers. Productivity losses on tropical soils are estimated to be in the range of 0.5-1.5 per cent of GNP, while secondary productivity losses are due to siltation of reservoirs, transportation channels and other hydrologic investments. International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 10
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
e. Deforestation: Death and disease can result from the localized flooding caused by deforestation. Loss of sustainable logging potential and of erosion prevention, watershed stability and carbon sequestration provided by forests are among the productivity impacts of deforestation. f. Loss of biodiversity: The extinction of plant and animal species will potentially affect the development of new drugs; it will reduce ecosystem adaptability and lead to the loss of genetic resources. g. Atmospheric changes: Ozone depletion is responsible for perhaps 300,000 additional cases of skin cancer a year and 1.7 million cases of cataracts. Global warming may lead to increase in the risk of climatic natural disasters. Productivity impacts may include sea-rise damage to coastal investments, regional changes in agricultural productivity and disruption of the marine food chain.
ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
Management of the environment involves the application of acquired knowledge about the environment with the aims of reducing, conserving or preventing further degradation. Management of the environment has to take into consideration detail measurements and observations about the environment through space and time and the social institutions involved in managing the environment. An example of a multi-disciplinary framework in environmental management. In the figure, environmental management is surrounded by problems from every component of the natural process system as depicted by conservation of habitat and species diversity (biosphere), air pollution (atmosphere), water pollution (hydrosphere), and land pollution (lithosphere). These problems are part of the environment that requires management and can only be precisely identified through environmental science, which is important in order to have an in-depth knowledge of the physical environment components. However, environmental science alone is inadequate in a management system since environmental management requires knowledge on culture, socio-economy and its impsacts. Furthermore, there must also be environmental ethics to control human actions, concrete relationship between the federal and state authorities, the support of non-governmental organizations, the private sector and the general public.
11
IJREAS

POLICY & LEGISLATION
ISSN: 2294-3905
ENVIRONMENTAL MASTER PLAN
DEVELOPMET MASTER PLAN PLANNING MASS MEDIA
FEDERAL STATE RELATION
R&D
EDUCATION & ETHICS GENERAL PUBLIC NGOS
PRIVATE SECTOR
Figure 3: Environmental management framework
HOW STAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

1. Execution of environmental Laws and convention: Merely framing laws and organizing meets and convention are not sufficient. One has to think beyond these frame work. 2. Social development : Merely developing lofty tower and high structure is not sufficient unless the lower strata of society is provided alternative means of lively hood for sustenance 3. Education and awareness: the present level of education and mass awareness is not sufficient to cope up with the required sustainable development all efforts goes into vein. 4. Contain needs and desire: the environment pollution and hazardous affects in the society is arising due to raising need and desires of common man and lust amass more and more without taking it to consideration the side effects on the quality of life in the society, not only on those who desire more but on those to who contain needs also so the masses should be educated to cut their needs keeping in mind the good and bad effects of use. 5. Containing populations: If we want to live in pollution free environment then we have to control the growing population of those who are just burden and not contributing towards the quality of life and polluting the environment without any check as the population grow the consequential need of daily requirement will also grow which has a direct impact on the bearing of environment.
12
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
6. Limit the greed for amassing wealth: If all the wealth is extracted in a day and leaving nothing for future because the capacity of wealth in the earth is limited. The every extraction from the earth will disbalance the equilibrium of earth which generates environment disorder like drought, tsunami, flood in a continuous phenomenon .that is why we must extract that much only which is essential for sustenance. 7. Simple living and sober life style: The environment can be protected only if we live in a simple and sober life style without artificial show-off in functions, ceremonys, festivals and marriages as all these occasions are full of different types of pollutions which are very common now a days. As there is no proper check and regulation over it as well as the maximum violation is created by the elite class who carelessly involved in celebrations of special occasions more over. 8. Promotion of Green and environment friendly technology: No doubt we in India have a law for pollution control and to check the use of polluting technology but even then we are quit use to of using substandard, obsolete, outdated technology without carrying its side effects on the quality of life over this earth. 9. Reward for the promoter of environment friendly efforts: We must reward to those and keep on rewarding the good work carried for the promotion of Eco friendly system as a effort to upgrade the quality of lives over the earth. 10. Funding of environment friendly projects: all those proposals which have positive effect on the life of human beings and the quality of life on the earth needs to be supported and financed as a gesture of goodwill and positivity for taking society towards survival and growth under the sustainable development.
GO GREEN FOR LIFE OF HEALTH AND SUSTAINABILITY

Weve identified six major forceswhat we call the six Csthat are pushing clean tech into the mainstream and driving the rapid growth, expansion, and economic necessity of clean tech across the globe: climate, costs, capital, competition, China, and consumers. Costs: Perhaps the most powerful force driving todays clean-tech growth is simple economics. As a medium to long term trend, clean-energy costs are falling as the costs of fossil fuel energy, despite the drop in the price of oil in the second half of 2008, are going up. The future of clean tech is going to be, in many ways, about scaling up manufacturing and driving down costs. Recent advances in core technology and manufacturing processes have
13
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
significantly improved performance, reliability, scalability, and cost of clean energy sources, primarily solar and wind. By contrast, in conventional fossil-fuel power such as coal and natural gas (which together provide approximately 60% of the worlds electricity), the generating technologies are mature, stable, and already widely deployedso their technology costs are relatively steady and predictable. What determines the price of conventional power is the cost of fueland the price of fossil fuels, while certainly experiencing directional gyrations as weve seen in the past year, has nearly always moved in the same general direction over the long term: up. With solar, wind, small-scale hydroelectric, geothermal, and even the nascent technology of ocean tide and wave generated electricity; the price-determining formula is just the opposite. There is no cost of fuelthe sun, the breeze, the heat of the earth, the tides and waves arrive free of charge daily. Climate: Alarm is growing about the climate-change consequences caused by our continued dependence on carbon-intensive, greenhouse gas (GHG)emitting energy and transportation sources, and manufacturing processes. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned in 2007 that global GHG emissions must be in decline by 2015 to avert disastrous runaway climate change. And with insurance giants such as Swiss Re and Munich Re thinking twice about climate impact on the issuance of their policies (try getting an insurance policy for an oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico), the climate issue is coming front and centre for companies, governments, and individuals. This is driving clean-tech investment and deployment and becoming an increasingly important factor in assessing investment risk factors. Global companies from DuPont to WalMart are investing heavily to promote energy efficiency and clean tech in their operations to reduce their GHG contributions. As an investor, do you believe that were going to take climate change seriously in terms of legislation? asks Mark Trexler, president of Trexler Climate + Energy Services, a firm in Portland, Oregon, that advises companies and utilities on carbon-reduction strategies. To completely ignore it, in terms of investment decisions, would be a terrible thing. Consumers: Rising energy prices, polluted ecosystems, and growing awareness of climate change and the geopolitical costs associated with fossil fuels are driving a shift in consumer attitudes and consumer demand for clean-tech products and services. Thats forcing companies that sell to consumers from appliance makers to auto manufacturers to Wal-Mart to produce and sell cleaner, more efficient products and to market them aggressively.
14
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Who is driving this demand and growth, which is also evidenced by the steady expansion of the LOHAS (Life of Health and Sustainability) demographic sector? Both early adopters, who installed the first solar PV system in their neighbourhood or purchased an early-model Toyota Prius, and mainstream customers, who are installing high-efficiency water heaters, buying higher-mileage cars, insulating their homes with recycled denim, and demanding efficient Energy Star appliances and windows. These 21st century consumer preferences dont seem to be slowed by the dramatic drop in gasoline prices that began in the fall of 2008. A Consumer Federation of America survey in February 2009 found that 76 percent of U.S. adults were still concerned about high gas prices and an equal number worried about American dependence on oil from the Middle East. Capital: An unprecedented influx of capital is changing the clean-tech landscape, with billions of dollars, Euros, yen, and Yuan pouring in from a myriad of public and private sector sources. Since the 1970s, investments in clean technology have moved from primarily government research and development (R&D) projects to major multinationals, well-heeled venture capitalists, and savvy individual investors. General Electric, the worlds largest diversified manufacturer, plans to invest up to $1.5 billion a year in clean-tech R&D by 2010 as part of its Ecomagination business strategy. Spain-based energy giants Iberdrola and Acciona are both poised to spend billions of dollars building out their clean-energy portfolios, primarily wind power, over the coming years. Toyota reportedly spends some $8 billion annually in R&D, much of it for hybrid and fuelcell development. Sanyo, the fourth largest solar cell manufacturer in the world behind Sharp, Q-Cells, and Kyocera, has said it will invest $350 million over 5 years to expand its solar operations as well. The trend is significant. In 2008, despite its fourth-quarter downturn, venture capital investments in clean tech (in North America, Europe, China, and India) grew 38% to $8.4 billion, according to research firm The Cleantech Group in San Francisco.
China; Clean tech is being driven by the inexorable demands being placed on the earth not only by mature economies but also China, India, Brazil, Russia, and other rapidly developing nations. Their expanding energy needs are driving major growth in clean-energy, transportation, building, and water-delivery technologies. China is emblematic of the resource-constraint issues facing our planet; China will not be able to sustain its growth if it doesnt widely embrace clean technology. The Chinese government is starting to understand this and in 2006 committed to investing more than $200 billion over 15 years to meet nationally mandated targets for clean energy. China is planning International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 15
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
to have 60 gigawatts of renewable energy (not including large hydroelectric) by 2010 and 120 GW by 2020. Competition: This refers to competition among cities, regions, and nations to attract and grow clean tech as a core industry for job creation and economic development. Thrust into the national spotlight in the past year with the focus on green jobs as a major component of U.S. economic recovery, clean tech as a development tool is gaining significant traction. Whether promoting the retraining of laid-off steelworkers to build wind turbines or employing inner-city job seekers to weatherize homes in their neighbourhoods, more governments are seeking (and seeing) the benefits of clean tech-focused development efforts. These powerful global forcesthe six Cshave put clean tech onto centre stage and awakened a diverse range of stakeholders across the world. From Beijing to Berlin, from San Francisco to Bangalore, the clean tech revolution is well under way. It will determine which regions lead and prosper and which regions are left drowning in their own effluents, choking on their own emissions, and struggling to compete in a world that is leaner, greener, and less reliant on fossil fuels. We believe the choice for investors, companies, governments, and individuals is simple, especially as we seek a dramatic transition out of our current financial crisis. Be part of one of the greatest business and economic shifts in recorded human history, or become extinct like the dinosaurs whose fossils fuelled the last great industrial revolution.
CONCLUSION
If we want to sustain ourselves then we have to protect environment and go for sustainable development by containing our needs and desires putting check on growing populations by educating the poors and down trodden for the protection of environment. The environment protection depend on the life of health and sustainability that is why we have to go green rather than offending the environment rules and laws. The government agencies need to be strict and vigilant about the violation of environment rules. Youth can play the vital roles in protection and promotion of environment consciousness among the different segment of societies. The town planning and industrial developments must be environment friendly. Bearing in mind the long term impact on the life of common man for the sustenance and survival of biodiversity. The NGOs can play key role in educating the masses about the negative impact of development and growth of polluting industries and rising population. The environment education needs to be promoted beyond the curriculum of syllabi with practical and meaningful approach for the survival of all. The management of resources within the
16
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
means and scope of needs rather than false and illusive living style. Lastly we should be more practical and close about the realities of life health, safety, environment and climate. If the climate is neat and clean the environment will be pure and human friendly by which we will safe and healthy. Health of today is the safety of tomorrow, precaution in today is the protection for future. Which we can achieve through the sustainable development and active and agile management of existing resources keeping in mind the needs of coming generations. The capacity and strength of existing planet earth is limited if we manage over needs in the lights of existing circumstantial environment then we will be certainly look forward for the better future. In simple if our planet earth is not safe then we all be on the dangerous note of destruction and If the nature and earth become violent then neither offender nor the conservator will survive, there will be no question no answer, no officer no sub-ordinate, no student no teacher, no king no slave, no raja no wazir, no agitation no pollution, no poor no rich. All will equal and flat without any structure. As if the fire broke in forest the fire will burn more live trees then dead wood.
REFERENCES
1. Banuri, T. et al. (1996). "Equity and Social Considerations. in J.P. Bruce et al.. Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A. doi:10.2277/0521568544. ISBN 9780521568548. 2. Grubb, M. (July-September 2003). "The Economics of the Kyoto Protocol". World Economics 4 (3): 143189. 3. http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/rstaff/grubb/publications/J36.pdf. Retrieved 2010-03-25. 4. PBL (24 February 2010). "Dossier Climate Change: FAQs. Question 10: Which are the top-20 CO2 or GHG emitting countries?". Netherlands Environment Agency website. 5. http://www.pbl.nl/en/dossiers/Climatechange/FAQs/index.html?vraag=10&title=Which %20are%20the%20top20%20CO2%20or%20GHG%20emitting%20countries%3F#10. Retrieved 2010-05-01. 6. IEA (2007). "World Energy Outlook 2007 Edition- China and India Insights". International Energy Agency (IEA), Head of Communication and Information Office, 9 rue de la Fdration, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France. pp. 600.
http://www.iea.org/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=1927. Retrieved 201005-04.
17
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
7. MNP (2007). "Greenhouse gas emissions of countries in 2005 and ranking of their per capita emissions". Netherlands Environment Agency website.
http://www.pbl.nl/images/Top20-CO2andGHG-countries-in2006-2005(GB)_tcm6136276.xls. Retrieved 2010-05-01. 8. http://www.eurojournals.comejss_9_2_08.pdf (Environment Degradation and
Environmental Management By Jamaluddin Md. Jahi, Kadaruddin Aiyub, Kadir Arifin, Azahan Awang ) 9. http://www.buzzle.com/articles/how-do-humans-affect-the-environment.html (Debopriya Bose) 10. http://www.saferenvironment.wordpress.com/2008/08/18/effects-of-environmentaldegradation/ (Partha Sharma) 11. http://www.suite101.com/content/10-ways-to-help-the-environment-that-are-healthyand-save-money-a261944 (Roger Vernon)
18
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
MAXIMUM POWER POINT TRACKING USING PERTURBATION AND OBSERVATION AS WELL AS INCREMENTAL CONDUCTANCE ALGORITHM
Manoj Kumar* Dr. F. Ansari** Dr. A. K. Jha***
ABSTRACT
This paper is comparative study of two type of maximum power point tracking (MPPT). The optimisation of energy generation in a photovoltaic (PV) system is necessary to let the PV cells operate at the maximum power point (MPP) corresponding to the maximum efficiency. Since the MPP varies, based on the irradiation and cell temperature, appropriate algorithms must be utilised to track the MPP. This is known as maximum power point tracking (MPPT). Different MPPT algorithms, each with its own specific performance, have been proposed in the literature. A so-called perturb and observe (P&O) as well as incremental conductance method is considered here and both are compared. This two method is widely diffused because of its low-cost and ease of implementation. When atmospheric conditions are constant or change slowly, the P&O method oscillates close to MPP. However, when these change rapidly, this method fails to track MPP and gives rise to a waste of part of the available energy. A comparative study has been done on both the methods by using MATLAB environment. The MPPT algorithm was set up and validated by means of MATLAB simulations and experimental tests, confirming the effectiveness of the method. Keywords: MPPT, MATLAB, Incremental Conductance, Perturb and Observe
*Gateway Inst. of Engg. & Tech **BIT, Sindri ***Anupam Group of Industries International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 19
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
INTRODUCTION
The comparisons between the PV water pumping system equipped with a Maximum power point tracker (MPPT) and the direct coupled system without MPPT has been done with the addition of a solar tracking using microcontroller. Microcontroller has been used to rotate the panel so that we can utilize maximum renewable energy in more efficient way. Also, the design and simulations of MPPT has been done using MATLAB to perform comparative tests of the perturb and observe (P&O) and incremental Conductance (incCond) algorithm. Simulations also verify the functionality of MPPT with a resistive load and then with the DC pump motor load. The comparisons between the PV water pumping system equipped with MPPT and the direct coupled system without MPPT has been done also solar tracking using microcontroller has been used so that we can utilize maximum renewable energy in more efficient way. The two MPPT algorithms, P&O and incCond, discussed and are implemented in MATLAB simulations and tested for their performance. Since the purpose is to make comparisons of two algorithms, each simulation contains only the PV model and the algorithm in order to isolate any influence from a converter or load. First, they are verified to locate the MPP correctly under the constant irradiance, as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Searching the MPP (1KW/m2, 25oC)The traces of PV operating point are shown in green, and the MPP is the red asterisk.
MAXIMUM POWER POINT TRACKER

When a PV module is directly coupled to a load, the PV modules operating point will be at the intersection of its IV curve and the load line which is the I-V relationship of load. For example in Figure 2, a resistive load has a straight line with a slope of 1/Rload as shown in Figure 3. In other words, the impedance of load dictates the operating condition of the PV module. In general, this operating point is seldom at the PV modules MPP, thus it is not International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 20
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
producing the maximum power. A study shows that a direct-coupled system utilizes a mere 31% of the PV capacity [1]. A PV array is usually oversized to compensate for a low power yield during winter months. This mismatching between a PV module and a load requires further over-sizing of the PV array and thus increases the overall system cost. To mitigate this problem, a maximum power point tracker (MPPT) can be used to maintain the PV modules operating point at the MPP. MPPTs can extract more than 97% of the PV power when properly optimized [2]. This chapter discusses the I-V characteristics of PV modules and loads, matching between the two, and the use of DC-DC converters as a means of MPPT. It also discusses the details of some MPPT algorithms and control methods, and limitations of MPPT.
Figure 2: PV module is directly connected to a (variable) resistive load
Figure 3: I-V curves of BP SX 150S PVmodule and various resistive loads Simulated with the MATLAB model (1KW/m2, 25oC
MAXIMUM POWER POINT TRACKING ALGORITHMS

The location of the MPP in the IV plane is not known beforehand and always changes dynamically depending on irradiance and temperature. For example, Figure 4 shows a set of PV IV curves under increasing irradiance at the constant temperature (25oC), and Figure 5 shows the IV curves at the same irradiance values but with a higher temperature (50oC). There are observable voltage shifts where the MPP occurs. Therefore, the MPP needs to be located by tracking algorithm, which is the heart of MPPT controller. There are a number of
21
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
methods that have been proposed. One method measures an open-circuit voltage (Voc) of PV module every 30 seconds by disconnecting it from rest of the circuit for a short moment. Then, after re-connection, the module voltage is adjusted to 76% of measured Voc which corresponds to the voltage at the MPP [3]. The implementation of this open-loop control method is very simple and low-cost although the MPPT efficiencies are relatively low (between 73~91%) [3]. Model calculations can also predict the location of MPP; however in practice it does not work well because it does not take physical variations and aging of module and other effects such as shading into account. Furthermore, a pyranometer that measures irradiance is quite expensive. Search algorithm using a closed-loop control can achieve higher efficiencies, thus it is the customary choice for MPPT. Among different algorithms, the Perturb & Observe (P&O) and Incremental Conductance (incCond) methods are studied.
Figure 4: I-V curves for varying irradiance and a trace of MPPs (25oC)
Figure 5: I-V curves for varying irradiance and a trace of MPPs (50oC)
PERTURB & OBSERVE ALGORITHM

The perturb & observe (P&O) algorithm, also known as the hill climbing method, is very popular and the most commonly used in practice because of its simplicity in algorithm and the ease of implementation. The most basic form of the P&O algorithm operates as follows. Figure 6 shows a PV modules output power curve as a function of voltage (P-V curve), at the constant irradiance and the constant module temperature, assuming the PV module is International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 22
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
operating at a point which is away from the MPP. In this algorithm the operating voltage of the PV module is perturbed by a small increment, and the resulting change of power, P, is observed. If the P is positive, then it is supposed that it has moved the operating point closer to the MPP. Thus, further voltage perturbations in the same direction should move the operating point toward the MPP. If the P is negative, the operating point has moved away from the MPP, and the direction of perturbation should be reversed to move back toward the MPP.
Figure 6: Plot of power vs. voltage for BP SX 150S PV module (1KW/m2, 25oC)
INCREMENTAL CONDUCTANCE ALGORITHM

To solve the problem of the P&O algorithm under rapidly changing atmospheric conditions the incremental conductance (incCond) algorithm was proposed [1]. The basic idea is that the slope of P-V curve becomes zero at the MPP, as shown in Figure 6. It is also possible to find a relative location of the operating point to the MPP by looking at the slopes. The slope is the derivative of the PV modules power with respect to its voltage and has the following relationships with the MPP.
(1)
(2)
(3)
The above equations are written in terms of voltage and current as follows.
(4)
If the operating point is at the MPP, the equation (4) becomes: (5) (6)
23
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
If the operating point is at the left side of the MPP, the equation (4) becomes: (7) (8) If the operating point is at the right side of the MPP, the equation (4) becomes: (9) (10) Note that the left side of the equations (6), (8), and (10) represents incremental conductance of the PV module, and the right side of the equations represents its instantaneous conductance.
PI CONTROLLING OF MPPT
As shown in Figure 7, the MPPT takes measurement of PV voltage and current, and then tracking algorithm (P&O, incCond, or variations of two). The PI loop operates with a much faster rate and provides fast response and overall system stability [4] [5]. The PI controller itself can be implemented with analog components, but it is often done with DSP-based controller [4] because the DSP can handle other tasks such as MPP tracking thus reducing parts count.
Figure 7: Block diagram of MPPT with the PI compensator
COMPARISONS OF P&O AND INCCOND ALGORITHM

The two MPPT algorithms, P&O and incCond, discussed are implemented in MATLAB simulations and tested for their performance. Since the purpose is to make comparisons of two algorithms, each simulation contains only the PV model and the algorithm in order to isolate any influence from a converter or load. First, they are verified to locate the MPP correctly under the constant irradiance, as shown in Figure 8.
24
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Figure 8: Searching the MPP (1KW/m2, 25oC) The traces of PV operating point are shown in green, and the MPP is the red asterisk Next, the algorithms are tested with actual irradiance data provided by [6]. Simulations use two sets of data, shown in Figure 9, the first set of data is the measurements of a sunny day in April in Barcelona, Spain, and the second set of data is for a cloudy day in the same month at the same location. The data contain the irradiance measurements taken every two minutes for 12 hours. Irradiance values between two data points are estimated by the cubic interpolation in MATLAB functions.
Figure 9: Irradiance data for a sunny and a cloudy day of April in Barcelona, Spain [6] On a sunny day, the irradiance level changes gradually since there is no influence of cloud. MPP tracking is supposed to be easy. As shown in Figure 10 & 11, both algorithms locate and maintain the PV operating point very close to the MPPs (shown in red asterisks) without much difference in their performance.
25
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Figure 10: Traces of MPP tracking on a sunny day (25oC) by using P&O algorithm.
Figure 11: Traces of MPP tracking on a sunny day (25oC) by using inccond algorithm. On a cloudy day, the irradiance level changes rapidly because of passing clouds. MPP tracking is supposed to be challenging. Figure 12 shows the trace of PV operating points of P&O algorithm and Figure 13 for incCond algorithm. For both algorithms, the deviations of operating points from the MPPs are obvious when compared to the results of a sunny day. Between two algorithms, the incCond algorithm is supposed to outperform the P&O algorithm under rapidly changing atmospheric conditions [1]. A close inspection of Figure 12 & 13 reveals that the P&O algorithm has slightly larger deviations overall and some erratic behaviours (such as the large deviation pointed by the red arrow). Some erratic traces are, however, also observable in the plot of the incCond algorithm.
Figure 12: Traces of MPP tracking on a cloudy (25oC) by using P&O algorithm
Figure 13: Traces of MPP tracking on a cloudy day (25oC) by using inccond algorithm. International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 26
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Table 1: Comparison of the P&O and incCond algorithms on a cloudy day. P&O Algorithm Total energy(simulation) Total energy (theoretical max) Efficiency 99.85% 99.86% 479.63Wh 480.38Wh incCond Algorithm 479.69Wh 480.38Wh
Total electric energy produced with the incCond algorithm is narrowly larger than that of the P&O algorithm. The MPP tracking efficiency measured by {Total Energy (simulation)} {Total Energy (theoretical max)} 100% is still good in the cloudy condition for both algorithms, and again it is narrowly higher with the incCond algorithm. The irradiance data are only available at two-minute intervals, thus they do not record a much higher rate of changes during these intervals. The data may not be providing a truly rapid changing condition, and that could be a reason why the two results are so close. Also, further optimization of algorithm and varying a testing method may provide different results. The performance difference between the two algorithms, however, would not be large. There is a study showing similar results [3]. The simulation results showed the efficiency of 99.3% for the P&O algorithm and 99.4% for the incCond algorithm. The experimental results showed 96.5% and 97.0%, respectively, for a partly cloudy day.
MPPT SIMULATIONS WITH RESISTIVE LOAD

First, MPPT with a resistive load is implemented in MATLAB simulation and verified. The selection of the P&O algorithm permits the use of the output sensing direct control method which eliminates the input voltage and current sensors. The MPPT design, therefore, chooses the P&O algorithm and the output sensing direct control method because of the advantage that allows of a simple and low cost system. The simulated system consists of the BP SX 150S PV model, the ideal Ck converter, the MPPT control, and the resistive load (6 MATLAB function that models the PV module is the following: (11) The function, bp_sx150s, calculates the module current (Ia) for the given module voltage Va), Irradiance (G in KW/m2), and module temperature (T in oC). The operating point of PV module is located by its relationship to the load resistance (R) as explained in Section. ). The
27
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
(12) The irradiance (G) and the module temperature (T) for the function (11) are known variables, thus it is possible to say that Ia is the function of Va hence Ia = f(Va). Substituting this into the equation (12) gives: (13) Knowing the value of R enables to solve this equation for the operating voltage (Va). MATLAB uses fzero function to do so. Appendix for details. Placing Va, back to the equation (11) gives the operating current (Ia). For the direct control method, each sampling of voltage and current is done at a periodic steady state condition of the converter. The following equations describe the input/output relationship of voltage and current, and they are used in the MATLAB simulation. (14) (15) Where: D is the duty cycle of the Ck converter. The simulation is performed under the linearly increasing irradiance varying from 100W/m2 to 1000W/m2 with a moderate rate of 0.3W/m2 per sample. Figure 14 and 15 show that the trace of operating point is staying close to the MPPs during the simulation. Figure 16 shows the relationship between the output power of converter and its duty cycle. Figure 17 shows the current and voltage relationship of converter output. Since the load is resistive, the current and voltage increase linearly with the slope of 1/Rload on the I-V plane.
Figure 14: operating point between o/p power vs voltage
28
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Figure 15: operating point between module current vs module voltage
Figure 16: operating point between o/p power vs duty cycle.
Figure 17: operating point between o/p current vs o/p voltage
RESULT ANALYSIS
The comparative study of P&O algorithm and incCond algorithm has been observed by MATLAB simulation. For both algorithms, the deviations of operating points from the MPPs are obvious when compared to the results of a sunny day. Between two algorithms, the incCond algorithm is supposed to outperform the P&O algorithm under rapidly changing atmospheric conditions. The theoretical study of solar tracking system has been studied which can provide more benefits compare to simple photovoltaic system. We can utilize maximum renewable energy
29
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
source by solar tracking system, although we can get more solar energy by connecting more number PV system either series or parallel but it will be more complex as well as costly. A close inspection reveals that the P&O algorithm has slightly larger deviations overall and some erratic behaviours (such as the large deviation) pointed by the red Some erratic behaviour, however, also observable in the plot of the incCond algorithm. Total electric energy produced with the incCond algorithm is narrowly larger than that of the P&O algorithm. The MPP tracking efficiency measured by {Total Energy (simulation)} {Total Energy (theoretical max)} 100% is still good in the cloudy condition The simulation results showed the efficiency of 99.3% for the P&O algorithm and 99.4% for the incCond algorithm. The experimental results showed 96.5% and 97.0%, respectively, for a partly cloudy day.
REFERENCES
1. K.H.Hussein et al.,Maximum Photovoltaic Power Tracking: an Algorithm for Rapidly Changing Atmospheric Conditions IEE Proceedings Generation, Transmission and Distribution v. 142, page 59-64, January 1995. 2. D.P. Hohm, M. E. Ropp., Comparative Study of Maximum Power Point Tracking Algorithms Progress in Photovoltaic: Research and Applications, page 47-62, November 2002. 3. J.H.R.Enslin et al.,Integrated Photovoltaic Maximum Power Point Tracking Converter IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics, Vol. 44,page 769-773, December 1997. 4. Hua Chihchiang et al., Implementation of a DSP controlled Photovoltaic System with Peak Power Tracking IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics, Vol. 45, No. 1, page 99-107, February 1998. 5. E.Koutroulis et al., Development of a Microcontroller-Based, Photovoltaic Maximum Power Point Tracking Control System In proc. International Journal on Power Electronics, Vol. 16, No. 1, page 46-54, January 2001. 6. Castaer, Luis & Santiago Silvestre Modelling Photovoltaic Systems, Using John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2002. 7. Abdelmalek Mokeddem et.al., Test and Analysis of a Photovoltaic DC-Motor Pumping SystemIn proc. of ICTON on mediterranean winter conference. pp 17,2007 PSpice
30
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
8. Taufik, Akihiro Oi et.al., Modeling and Simulation of Photovoltaic Water Pumping System IEEE Third Asia International Conference on Modelling & Simulation pp 497-502., May 2009. 9. Anna Mathew et al., MPPT Based Stand-Alone Water Pumping System International Conference on Computer, Communication & Electrical Technology ICCCET2011,pp 455-460., March 2011. 10. N. Hamrouni et.al.,Measurements and Simulation of a PV Pumping Systems Parameters Using MPPT and PWM Control Strategies In proc. of Mediterranean conference on Electro technical, pp 885-858., May 2006. IEEE
31
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
STUDY OF VARIOUS INDOOR PROPAGATION MODELS

Er. Neha Sharma* Dr. G.C.Lall*
ABSTRACT
Indoor Propagation modeling is demanded for the maintenance of indoors-wireless services. Propagation models provide estimates of signal strength and time dispersion in many indoor environments. These data are valuable in the design and installation of indoor radio systems. We propose improving existing channel models by building partitioning technique. Based on the measurement results the easy-to-use empirical propagation predication models were derived for both of the buildings with satisfactory accuracy. The result used to determine the path loss exponent and standard deviation. It similarly shows that the RSS values Vs distance help in determine the variation in multi-wall model and single wall. Keywords: Wireless LAN, Ekahau Heat mapper, Visi-site survey, propagation modeling, GPS.
*HCTM, Kaithal, Haryan
32
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
1. INTRODUCTION
Researchers have developed a variety of experimentally or theoretically based models to predict radio propagation in various frequency bands and for various types of environments. The past decades has witnessed a phenomenal growth in wireless communication. The need of wireless technology in offices, and all the working places gives revolution to the indoor propagation models. Indoor propagation is not influenced by weather conditions like rain, snow or clouds as outdoor propagation, but it can be affected by the layout in the building especially the use of different building material. Owing to reflection, refraction and diffraction of radio waves by objects such as walls, windows, doors and furniture inside the building, the transmitted signal often reaches the receiver through more than one path, resulting in a phenomenon known as multi-path fading [1][2]. The mechanism behind electromagnetic waves propagation are diverse, but can generally be attributed to reflection, scattering, refraction and diffraction. A signal radiated from an
antenna travels along one of the three routes: ground wave, sky wave, or line of sight (LOS). Based on the operating frequency range, one of the three predominates. In [2], a review of popular propagation models for the wireless communication channel is undertaken. Macro cell (typically a large outdoor area), microcell (a small outdoor area), and indoor environments are considered. For a small network in a limited area, only manufacturers information on the coverage range is sufficient to deploy the APs. The paper based on a site survey with a lot of measurements and experimental decisions. One common approach employs surveying of signal strength information in a particular area.
2. MODEL LOCATION
This research began by measuring signal strengths. The result obtained the average signal strength as well as the standard deviation at each location. Site survey using either a standard wireless device with a testing software tool or special sophisticated equipment is undoubtedly indispensable way to test existing WLAN networks - coverage, performance, etc.
33
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Fig. 2.1 Coverage area. The experimental area shown with the help of Google Earth in Fig. 2.1. So, the main goal of a site survey is to measure standard deviation 2.1 RECEIVED SIGNAL STRENGTH Wi-Fi wireless networks are everywhere [3]. Visualize all Wi-Fi Networks: Ekahau HeatMapper will display the coverage area of all the access points in the area on a map. Fig.2.2 shows that the amplitude of signals varies for different APs, which is located at the experimental area. This can help us to represent the strongest AP. VisiWave provides four effective methods for capturing data (one point at a time, continuous walks through the survey area, GPS positioning for outdoor surveys, and a custom dead-reckoning navigation device) making data collection quick and easy [3][4]. Find Security Problems and Open Networks: HeatMapper displays if there are security issues in some networks, and shows the location of unsecured networks. GPS help to take the distance in feets as well as in meters from the transmitter to receiver.
Fig.2.2 Map Survey for nearby located WiFis. International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 34
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
There are lots of survey done with the help of GPS, which help in getting the exact distance between the transmitter and the receiver. Ekahau Heat Mapper shows that the signals are weak of AP1 as we gone far from the building. We can see that the RSS values from that AP are getting weaker as we move away from it. 2.2 LIMITATION OF INDOOR PROPAGATION MODELS: Improved Propagation models are required to achieve reliable and accurate propagation and predictions. The various challenges facing the development of indoor propagation models are as follows: 1) Propagation measurements primarily dependent on unavailable building construction parameters such as wall thickness, materials, and indoor building structures. 2) A large number of prediction methods require computation of the effect of reflections and transmissions and hence become time consuming and computationally ineffective 3) Most of the techniques are applicable to high frequencies thus the dimension of some indoor structures may not necessarily satisfy the large dimensions compared to the wavelength criterion required by these methods. 4) Small-scale fading- it causes great variation within a half wavelength. Multipath and moving scatters cause it. Rayleigh, Ricean, usually approximates resulting fades or similar fading statistics measurements also show good fit to Nakagami-m and Weibull distributions [4].
3. PROPAGATION MODEL:
3.1 FREE SPACE PATH LOSS MODEL: The spatial distribution of power at a distance d from a transmitter is, in general, a decreasing function of d. A distance power law of the form represents this function
P=l/dm
(3.1)
For free space, m is equal to 2 and it is said that the power gain follows an inverse square law. In an enclosed environment, however, this is not true anymore. I showed that when the transmitter and receiver were placed in the same living room, in sight of each other, the power decayed with a value of m ranging of 1.5 to 1.8. when the receiver was located within a room off the hallway, m ranged from 3 to 4. The path loss also varies with frequency. The measurement results indicate that loss through floors is greater at the higher frequency. It is found that at wavelengths in the millimeter range the radio wave cannot penetrate most common building materials such as brick and concrete block and that signal attenuation occurs more rapidly with distance [5]. Therefore International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 35
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
the millimeter waveband seems to be a good choice for providing broadband services in a high-capacity frequency-reuse environment. The equation for FSPL is
(3.2)
Where: Is the signal wavelength (in meters), Is the signal frequency (in hertz), Is the distance from the transmitter (in meters),
C is the speed of light in a vacuum, 2.99792458 108 meters per second. Alexandra has given the values of m according to the building materials used in the environment. The degree 01 signal attenuation depends on the type of materials the signal encounters. Consequently, the construction materials can characterize the signal decay in an indoor environment.
Fig. 3.1 Free Space Path Loss Model We used visi-site survey software tool to verify the coverage of a specific AP and get a rough idea of the RSS values related to that AP. After covering the distance of 10 meter away from the source. It helps in creating the data for the survey which gives all the information related to wifi signals.
36
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Fig. 3.2 List if AP, SNR, MAC, SSID etc. The Fig. 3.1 shows that in free space there is no loss of data between the transmitted signal and receiver signal. The Fig. 3.2 shows AP list also contain MAC address, Max SNR, Min SNR, Avg. SNR. 3.2. EMPIRICAL MODELS Both theoretical and measurement based propagation models indicate that average received signal power decreases logarithmically with distance. Empirical models help in reducing computational complexity as well as increasing the accuracy of the predictions [6]. The empirical model used in this study is Log-distance Path Loss Model.
3.2.1 Log-distance Path Loss Model

In both indoor and outdoor environments the average large-scale path loss for an arbitrary Transmitter-Receiver (T-R) separation is expressed as a function of distance by using a path loss exponent, n [10][9]. The average path loss PL(d) for a transmitter and receiver with separation d is: PL(dB)= PL(d0) +10nlog(d), d0 (3.2)
where n is the path loss exponent which indicates the rate at which path loss increases with distance d. Close in reference distance (d0) is determined from measurements close to the transmitter. 3.2.2 LOG-NORMAL SHADOWING Random shadowing effects occurring over a large number of measurement locations, which have the same T-R separation, but different levels of clutter on the propagation path, is referred to as Log-Normal Distribution [7]. This phenomenon is referred to as lognormal shadowing. This leads to measured signals, which are vastly different than the average value predicted by (3.2). To account for the variations described above equation (3.2) is modified International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 37
IJREAS
as:
ISSN: 2294-3905
PL(dB) = PL(d0) +10nlog(d)+ X
(3.3)
where X is a zero-mean Gaussian distributed random variable with standard deviation . The close-in reference distance d0, the path loss exponent n, and the standard deviation , statistically describe the path loss model for an arbitrary location having a specific T-R separation.
Table 3.1 Path loss exponents for different environments. 3.2.3 TWO-RAY MODEL Unlike statistical models, site specific propagation models do not rely on extensive measurement, but a greater detail of the indoor environment is required to obtain an accurate prediction of signal propagation inside a building. The received signal Pr for isotropic antennas, obtained by summing the contribution from each ray, can be expressed as (3.4) where Pt is the transmitted power, r1 is the direct distance from the transmitter to the receiver, r2 is the distance through reflection on the ground, and () is the reflection coefficient depending on the angle of incidence and the polarization [8].
Fig.3.3 Two ray model. International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 38
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
The reflection coefficient is given by
(3.5) where = 90- and a = 1/ or 1 for vertical or horizontal polarization, respectively. r is a relative dielectric constant of the reflected surface []. The signal strengths from theoretical and empirical models are compared in this study. 3.3 DETERMINISTIC MODELING APPROACH Deterministic or semi-deterministic models are primarily based on electromagnetic wave propagation theory being as close to physical principles as possible. Most of the models known as ray tracing or ray launching are based on geometrical optics. Some simplifications lead to viewing the radio wave propagation as optical rays. It can be seen that diffraction and wave guiding effect of the corridor are considered. Since the multipath propagation can be fully described, other space-time properties like time delays; angles of arrival etc. can be determined. On the other hand, for a common planning only the propagation loss is sufficient and the cost for the accuracy is enormous [4][7]. 3.4. PARTITIONED MODEL These models are very easy and fast to apply because the prediction is usually obtained from simple closed ex- pressions. Also requirements on the input environment description are reasonable. But, at the same time, only the propagation loss without great site-specific accuracy can be predicted. 3.4.1 SINGLE-GRADIENT MULTI-FLOOR (SGMF) MODEL The idea behind this model is that the distance dictates if the AP and receiver are located on the same floor the path-loss from the AP to the receiver using a distance power-gradient. The path-loss in the SGMF model is given by Lp=L0+Lf(n)+10a *log(d) (3.6)
Where L0 is the path-loss over the first meter, Lf (n) is the attenuation attributed to each floor, n is the number of floors between the transmitter and receiver, is the distance- power gradient, and d is the distance between the transmitter and receiver [8]. The Table 3.2 gives the set of parameters suggested for three different environments.
39
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Fig.3.4 The performance of the second floor and ground floor
Fig.3.5 Signal Strength for SGMF
40
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Table.3.2 Measurement for RSS values at first floor. Fig. 3.4 displays that the performance of the signal strength with distance at second floor and ground floor. This graph shows that the performance of second floor is better than ground due to the presence of two APs at the same time. For showing the performance of first floor we used MATLAB in Fig. 3.5. The formula for the SGMF+BP model is given by:
(3.7) Where Lp is the path-loss over distance d in dB, L0 is the path-loss over the first meter in dB, Lf (n) is the attenuation attributed to each floor, n is the number of floors between the transmitter and receiver, 1, and E are the distance-power gradients for the respective path sections, and dwbp is the dynamic AP specific wall breakpoint in meters [9].
41
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Fig.3.6 Performance of Partitioned Models at first floor 3.4.2 MULTI-GRADIENT SINGLE-FLOOR(MGSF) MODEL The Multi-Gradient Single-Floor (MGSF) model most recently has been used to model the WiFi propagation path-loss in indoor environments. The distance partitioned MGSF model,
(3.9) Where Lp is the path-loss over distance d in dB, L0 is the path-loss over the first meter in dB, 1 and 2 are the distance-power gradients for the path sections one and two respectively, and dbp is the breakpoint distance in meters. Table 4.1 gives suggested parameter sets for three environments defined for 802.11 standard in reference [9][10].
Fig.3.7 Building Partitioned model
42
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Table 3.3 Indoor Residential LOS and NLOS values The MGSF+BP models distance-power gradient was larger than the internal path distancepower gradient, which does not fit with the known path-loss environment. The interior paths should have higher path-loss due to interior wall and other physical obstructions. Fig.3.7 displays the building portioned model with the help of Table3.3 and Table 3.4.
Table 3.4 MGSF standards for calculations The First floor of the building taken into consideration for the MGSF model. In this we selected some distance from AP to calculate the path loss model in this area. Three APs is assigned nearby so that the signal for each AP will be approximately same. In Fig.3.8 the performance of partitioned models will be differ in single floor with multiple floors. The distance-power gradient for this model is most likely artificially high due to the absence of the exterior wall path-loss and should result in lower performance than the other model with the exterior wall path-loss. International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 43
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Fig.3.8 Coverage distance model prediction to empirical data comparison for each AP The over predicted coverage could also be attributing to the higher mean RSS predicted by the models. Fig.3.9 and Fig.3.10 Signal Strength for MGSF and MGSF-BP. To overcome this short fall the footprints of the surrounding building could be added to future models.
Fig.3.9 Signal Strength for MGSF
5. RESULT ANALYSIS
In this paper, we have pointed out the importance of propagation models in the development of indoor wireless communications. Propagation models provide estimates of signal strength and time dispersion in many indoor environments. These data are valuable in the design and installation of indoor radio systems. Site-specific propagation modeling by solving Maxwells equations is costly and impractical. The inclusion of diffraction theory can broaden its application to lower radio frequencies. The accuracy of ray-tracing techniques depends heavily on the accuracy and detail of the site-specific representation of the propagation medium. The SGMF model had a higher peak performance but the MGSF model had a slightly higher mean performance. The two methods for the design of large wireless local area networks site survey and software planning were compared. The drawbacks of site survey due to the time and space-varying environment were investigated
44
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
using a simple experiment. The overview of available propagation models and its usage was given.
REFERENCES
1. SUZUKI, H.: A statistical model for urban radio propagation, IEEE Trans. Communication July 1977,COM-25, pp.673-680 2. HASHEMI, H.: Simulation of the rural radio propagation channel, IEEE Trans. Veh. Technol., August 1979, VT-28, pp.213-224 3. BAJWA,AS.: UHF wideband statistical model and simulation of mobile radio multipath propagation effects, IEE Proc. F., August 1985,132,(51,pp.327-333 4. RAPPAPORT, T.S., SEIDEL. S.Y., and SINGH, R : 900 MHz multipath propagation measurements for US digital cellular radio telephone, IEEE Trans. Veh. Technology May 1990, VT-39, (2). pp.132-139 5. RAPPAPORT, T.S., SEIDEL, S.Y., and TAKAMIZAWA, IC: Statistical channel impulse response models for factory and open plan building radio communication system design, IEEE Trans. Communication May 1991.39, (5). pp.794-807 6. HASHEMI, H., THOLL. D., and MORRISON, G.: Statistical modeling of the indoor radio propagation channel part I. Proc. IEEE Vehicular Technology Conference, WC92, Denver, CO, May 1992, pp.33&342 7. HASHEMI, H., LEE, D., and EHMAN. D.: Statistical modeling of the indoor radio propagation channel: part 11. Proc. IEEE Vehicular Technology Conference, WC92, Denver, CO.,May 1992,pp.839843 8. HASHEMI, H.: Impulse response modeling of indoor radio propagation channels, IEEE J. Sel. Areas Communication September 1993,SAC-11,pp.1788-1796 9. Ben Slimane, S. & Gidlund, Performance of wireless LANs in radio channels, IEEE Multi-access, Mobility and Telegraphic for Wireless Communication December 2000, 5, 329-40. 10. MCKOWN, J.W., and HAMILTON, R.L.: Ray tracing as a design tool for radio networks. IEEE Network, November 1991,5, (6),pp.27-30 11. www.metageek.net/products/inssider 12. www.earth.google.com/ 13. www.visiwave.com/
45
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
GIS SOLUTION FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT

Nitin Sukhadevrao Goje* Dr. Ujwal A. Lanjewar**
ABSTRACT
Environmental management is inherently a spatial endeavor. Its data are particularly complex as they require two descriptors; namely the precise location of what is being described, as well as a clear description of its physical characteristics. For hundreds of years, explorers produced manually drafted maps which served to link the where is what descriptors. With an emphasis on accurate location of physical features, early maps helped explorers and navigators chart unexplored territory. The current surge of interest in environmental information springs from the convergence of three profound world-wide trends: environmental awareness, liberation of public affairs, and information technology. Degradation of environmental resources (air, water, soil and biodiversity) has mobilized public opinion. This is because these resources intimately and directly affect the quality of our lives. As a result the public demands to be better informed on the state of the environment. In turn, governments and industries need spatial information in order to manage and utilize the environmental resources in a sustainable manner. The past two decades have witnessed dramatic advances in Information Technology. Spatial data processing has advanced to the point where it matches the applications challenges presented by the natural resource management. In addition, the Internet, Geomatics, and Telecommunications are rapidly changing the way natural resources are being managed and protected. These have provided more accurate and up-to-date information about resources; further the information is readily available to would be users. In this paper we discuss the contribution of Geographic Information System in Natural Resources Development and Environment Management Keywords: GIS, Environmental Management, Natural Resources Development, Data Model.
*Assistant Professor, ITM Institute of Management & Research, Kamptee, Nagpur. **Professor, VMV Arts, JMT Commerce and JJP Science College, Nagpur. International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 46
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
INTRODUCTION
Responsible and successful environmental management is necessary for protecting and restoring the natural environment. The interdependency of the earths ecosystems and the human impact on the environment present complex challenges to governments and businesses as well as scientists and environmentalists in every discipline. Geographic information system (GIS) technology is used to support and deliver information to environmental managers and the public. GIS allows the combination and analysis of multiple layers of location-based data including environmental measurements. The environmental application areas of GIS are varied in terms of potential users, environmental spheres, and the specific environmental issue being investigated. [7]
OBJECTIVE
Objective of the paper is to study the various aspects of environmental management and natural resources development and coming to the conclusion that the solutions provided by the Geographic Information System. GIS environmental management solutions enable organizations to Ensure accurate reporting with improved data collection. Improve decision making. Increase productivity with streamlined work processes. Provide better data analysis and presentation options. Model dynamic environmental phenomena. Create predictive scenarios for environmental impact studies. Automate regulatory compliance processes. Disseminate maps and share map data across the Internet.
LITERATURE SURVEY
What is GIS? GIS is a powerful software technology that allows a virtually unlimited amount of information to be linked to a geographic location. Coupled with a digital map, GIS allows a user to see locations, events, features, and environmental changes with unprecedented clarity, showing layer upon layer of information such as environmental trends, soil stability, pesticide use, migration corridors, hazardous waste generators, dust source points, Lake Remediation efforts, and at-risk water wells. Effective environmental practice considers the whole spectrum of the environment. GIS technology offers a wide variety of analytical tools to meet the needs of many people, helping them make better decisions about the environment. [7] International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 47
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
People in the environmental management community use GIS to organize existing information and communicate that information throughout their organizations. GIS can be used as a strategic tool to automate processes, transform environmental management operations by garnering new knowledge, and support decisions that make a profound difference on our environment. GIS in Environmental Management and Natural Resources Development GIS is a vital tool in natural resources development. The various aspects of resource management it supports include storage and retrieval of data, interpretation and analysis of the resource data, and development of the Resource Management Plans (RMP's). Resource use alternatives are formulated, and the GIS is used to evaluate each in terms of environmental impact, economic implications, acreage, and potential use conflict. One important function of GIS is to assist in recognizing underlying patterns in data. These patterns may be areas of forestland suitable for timber harvest or potential shifts in population distribution. GIS simulations can be used to understand the direct and indirect effects of human activities over long periods of time and over large areas. By using the database integration capabilities of GIS, Planners and Resource Managers gain a better understanding of the complex interrelationship between physical, biological, cultural, economical, and demographic considerations around a specific resource. Access to this information and its understanding makes it essential in making sound resource-use decisions. This ensures balanced management and use of the resources. GIS is increasingly replacing the traditional methods because it is faster, cost efficient and accurate. GIS analyses are hence becoming routine in a significant number of field offices. [6] Examples of GIS Application in Natural Resources Development GIS applications are diverse and include water quality monitoring, modeling narcotic crop sites, waste site assessment, analyzing effects of carbon dioxide etc. Some analyses relative to forest are overlaying forested areas and logging areas to see what percentage of forest area is in danger of degradation. Adding data on protected areas or biodiversity hot spots allows one to see how these areas fit in the picture. Egregious problems, such as protected areas being included in logging concessions can also be detected.[6] One notable example is the detection of illegal oil and gas drainage from public lands by wells on private lands. GIS reduces the process of drainage detection from several days done manually to a few hours.
48
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
GIS ENVIRONMENTAL DATA MODEL

Object of data modeling of environment are both its basic components: physical-geographical sphere and social-economical one as well. Process of data modeling of environment can be simply imagined on the basis of Following Fig 1.
Fig. 1. GIS Environmental data model [8] Model of subjected environment created by geodetic, cartographic and photogrammetric methods should have structure, contents and accuracy enabling to re-create it functional data model. This data model should not only be able to be processed by computer technologies, but also to be simply used for many purposes and users. [8]
FINDINGS & SUGGESTIONS

Environmental developers and planners work together to bring the environmental management community benefit and value from GIS. The model given in above figure gives various benefits for environmental Management and Natural Resources Development. Above model adds following benefits Database-sharing architecture that supports decision making and daily work tasks Interoperable system solutions for integrated workflow and data access Internet mapping solutions that support interagency collaboration projects Quality control processes that ensure accurate, high-quality data Worker-friendly designs that increase agency-wide access and application Scalability that supports and adapts to growing and evolving IT demand
We suggest that applying above data model in environmental management and natural resources development can help in accessing accurate data with high speed. It required to integrate above model by using various programming languages, databases and GIS analytical engines.
CONCLUSION & FUTURE SCOPE

Even though obstacles remain to their full deployment, Geomatics technologies now being developed and demonstrated suggest natural resource applications that were not believed possible using traditional techniques. As we progress towards the long talked about notion of
49
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
integrated natural resources development and environmental management, some parallel continuums along which the technology manifests are: - The technology helps create integrated views of databases that span the levels of map scale, detail and use. This helps in understanding the earths ecology. - The technology meets the need for information presentation tools, as the pendulum swings towards community place based management. - The emergence of shared data infrastructure and accelerated information delivery, e.g. Internet data ordering. - Significant advances in data acquisition technology. - Rapid improvement in data storage, retrieval and analysis.
REFERENCES
1. Fedra, K. (1993) GIS and environmental modelling. In: Environmental Modelling with GIS (ed. by M. F. Goodchild, B. O. Parks & L. T. Steyaert), 35-50. Oxford University Press. 2. Goodchild, M. F. (1993) Data models and data quality, problems and prospects. In: EnvironmentalModelling with GIS (ed. byM. F. Goodchild, B. 0. Parks &L. T. Steyaert), 94-103. Oxford University Press. 3. Harris, J., Gupta, S., Woodside, G. & Ziemba, N. (1993) Integrated use of a GIS and a three-dimensional, finite-element model: San Gabriel Basin groundwater flow analyses. In: EnvironmentalModelling with GIS (eu. by M. F. Goodchild, B. O. Parks & L. T. Steyaert), 168-172. Oxford University Press. 4. Hassan H. M., Hutchinson C., 1992, Natural Resources and Environment Information For Decision Making, The World Bank. 5. Johannsen C.V., Sanders J. L., 1982, Remote Sensing for Resource Management, Soil Conservation Society Of America, Michigan, USA. 6. TS12.2 James Osundwa: The Role of Spatial Information in Natural Resource Management International Conference on Spatial Information for Sustainable Development Nairobi, Kenya 25 October 2001. 7. www.esri.com/environment/ GIS solution for Environmental Management. 8. ArtInAppleS, Ltd.: ArtGIS Training Program. ArtInAppleS, Ltd. Bratislava, www.artinapples.sk.
50
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
PHYSICO-CHEMICAL ANALYSIS OF YAMUNA WATER AT MATHURA

Suman Yadav* Dr. K.C. Gupta*
ABSTRACT
Physico-chemical Properties of water of Yamuna River at Mathura, (UP) were studied. The time period of study was July 2009 to June 2010. Three sampling stations were selected for study. The parameters studied were Temperature, Turbidity, pH, DO, BOD, COD, Total Dissolved Solids and Suspended Solids. Almost all the parameters were found above the tolerance limit. Keywords: Pollution, Pollutants, D.O., B.O.D., C.O.D., Turbidity, Effluents, TDS, TSS.
*Deptt. of Chemistry, Singhania University, Jhunjhunu, (Raj.)
51
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
INTRODUCTION
Pollution is one of the most challenging problems today. The unwanted substances are being regularly added to our environment, making it unsafe to live. Population growth, rapid economic development, industrialisation and unconscious human activities are slowly transforming our planet into a rotten place. The balance of nature has been so adversely affected that we are facing with, frequent floods in some areas and severe draught in the others. Mathura (U.P.) is considered to be a historical and holy place, being the birth-place of Lord Krishna, millions of pilgrims from every corner visit Mathura every year and use to take bath in the holy river Yamuna. Their stay in the city causes a severe sewage and garbage disposal problem. The sewage along with the garbage is disposed off either directly or indirectly into the river Yamuna through a number of wide drains and results in heavy water pollution. Furthermore, Mathura is a fast developing city. A number of small and large industries are working here, which use very fast, harmful and non-biodegradable chemicals like sulphuric acid, silica powder, hydrochloric acid, detergents including alkyl benzene sulphonate and linear alkyl sulphonate and several dyes containing cyanides, arsenic, cadmium, mercury and led compounds. Their menacing effects have been manifested in the form of the death of thousands of aquatic organisms.
MATERIALS AND METHODS

The sampling was done in second week of each month in glass bottles with capacity 300 ml. The physico-chemical parameters of the water were determined on the spots, with the help of Portable water detection kit (Model no. CK-710, manufactured by Century Instruments Pvt. Ltd., Chandigarh). The temperature was measured on the spot by using temperature sensitive electrodes of the portable water detection kit. Other physico-chemical parameters from samples were determined in the laboratory using the method suggested by APHA (1985) and NEERI manual (1986). The results were compared with standard permitting parameters as suggested by WHO and ISI. For digestional and pre concentration of water samples, standard methods were followed (Chakraborty et.al. 1987 and Subramaniam 1987).
52
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Temperature Temperature is an important physical factor which control the natural processes of the environment. It was observed in accordance with the seasonal changes. It ranged between 16.535.9 oC. It was higher in May, June and July and lower during winter months i.e. December and January. Turbidity Turbidity is generally caused by untreated and undecomposed organic matter, sewage and industrial waste. It was very high in July and August because of the Janmashtami and Shravan Maas when there is a mass gathering in the city and millions of peoples take bath in Yamuna river. It was noted minimum 64 NTU and maximum 131 NTU. pH pH shows the acidic or alkaline nature of water. The water of river Yamuna was found slightly alkaline. It ranged between 7.1 8.6. It showed similar trend with Mathur et.al. (1987), Dakshini et.al (1979), Kumar and Sharma (2005) and Singh et. al (1988).
TABLE -1 PHYSICO-CHEMICAL PARAMETERS OF RIVER YAMUNA FROM JULY 2009 TO JUNE 2010 (Average value of three sites) Rains Parameters Units Jul oC NTU Mg/lit. Aug Sep Oct 22.7 111 8.4 6.6 8.9 19.4 506 401 Nov 22.4 83 8.5 3.9 17.6 32.1 622 446 Dec 19.1 104 7.9 9.8 5.8 17.9 455 521 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 28.0 79 8.5 6.5 22.1 59.4 605 401 33.4 89 8.4 2.8 44.8 44.4 606 502 35.9 131 7.5 1.8 47.0 60.5 698 512 Winters Summers
Temperature Turbidity pH D.O. B.O.D. C.O.D. T.D.S. T.S.S.
30.8 30.4 23.4 121 7.1 2.2 125 7.2 2.4 99 7.6 4.7 7.8
16.5 21.1 23.9 64 8.6 8.7 5.4 87 7.7 4.6 81 7.6 11.8
Mg/lit. 35.1 34.2
19.8 12.0
Mg/lit. 44.1 22.5 15.3 Mg/lit. Mg/lit. 501 419 421 387 412 412
12.3 33.5 17.2 413 346 512 421 648 458
53
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Dissolved Oxygen :Dissolved oxygen is essential for the decomposition of chemical waste and dead organic matter. It show variable trend. It was maximum in winter but lower in summer. It ranged between 1.8 -11.8 mg/l. (Kumar & Sharma, 2004). BOD :BOD is the amount of oxygen required by living aquatic organisms for their physiological process. It was found very high in summer and comparatively low in winter. It ranged between 5.4-47.0 mg/l. The findings were similar to those observed by Kumar & Sharma (2005). COD :It is the amount of oxygen required for the decomposition of chemical waste. A high value of COD shows a higher accumulation of organic waste in the pond. It was found higher during summer (60.5 mg/l) and lower during winter (12.3 mg/l). Which was in accordance with the observations made by Shankar et. al (1986), Reddy et. al (1985) and Sangu et. al. (1983). TDS :Total dissolved solids also serve as indicator of pollution. Trend was found to be highly fluctuating. It ranged between 412 - 698 mg/l. (Saxena et. al. ,1993 and Siddiqui et. al, 1994). TSS :Total suspended solids were found very fluctuating. TSS were higher in summer and lower in winter and ranged between 346 - 521 mg/l. The findings were similar to those observed by Mathur et. al (1987), Saxena et. al (1991) and Shahji et. al (1993). Summary & Conclusion From the above observations it was concluded that Yamuna river is highly polluted and the use of its polluted water may cause various diseases. Remedial measures are required to sustain the good quality of water and also to save the life of people.
REFERENCES
1. APHA (1992), AWWA. WFCW in Standard Method for the examination of water and waste water. American Public Health Association, New York.
54
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
2. Bhaumik B.M. and Singh A.K. (1985), Phytoplankton population in relation to physico-chemical factor of river Ganga at Patna. Ind. J. Eco. 12(2) : 360364. 3. Dakshini K.M.M. and Soni J.K. (1979), Water quality of sewage drains entering Yamuna at Dehli. Ind. J. Env. Hlth., Vol. 21, No. 4, 354-360. 4. Kumar Praveen and Sharma H.B. (2004) Studies on fluctuating trends in some aquatic micro-organisms of Radha Kund at Mathura Flora & Fauna, Vol. 10, no. 1, 22-24. 5. Kumar Praveen and Sharma H.B. (2005) Physico-chemical characteristics of lentic water of Radha Kunda (District Mathura). Ind. J. of Env. Sc. 9(1), 2122. 6. Mathur A.,Y.C. Sharma, D.C. Rupainwar, R.C. Murthy and S.V. Chandra (1987), A study of river Ganga at Varanasi with special emphasis on heavy metal pollution. Poll. Res., 6(1):37-44. 7. Reddy M. and P.V. Venkateshwaralu (1985), Ecological studies in the paper mill effluents and their impact on river Tungabhadra : Heavy metals and algal. Proc. Ind. Acad. Sc. (Plant Sci.), 1985(3) :139-146. 8. Sangu R.P.S., P.D. Pathak and K.D. Sharma (1983), Monitoring of Yamuna river at Agra. Proc. of the Nat. Confr. On river Poll. And human health. 9. Saxena K.K. and R.R.S. Chauhan (1993), Physico-chemical aspects of pollution in river Yamuna at Agra. Poll. Res., 12(2) :101-104. 10. Shaji C. and R.J. Patel (1991), Chemical and biological evaluation of pollution in the river Sabarmati at Ahemadabad, Gujrat Phycos. 30 : 9811000. 11. Shankar V., R.P.S. Sangu and G.C. Joshi (1986), Impact of distillery effluents on the water quality an eco-system of river Reh in Doon Valley. Poll. Res., 5(3&4): 137-142. 12. Sharma K.D., Lal N. and Pathak P.D. (1981), Water quality of sewage drains entering Yamuna at Agra. Ind. J. Env. Hlth., Vol. 23 no. 2 : 118-122. 13. Shekhar S. (1985), Studies on river pollution on river Cauveri. Ind. J. Env. St., 23 : 115-124. 14. Siddiqi Z.M., R.S. Panesar and S. Rani (1994), Bio-chemical effect on few sewerage disposal on the water quality of Sutlez river. I.J.E.P., 14(10) : 740-743. International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 55
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
15. Singh J.P., P.K. Yadav and L.Singh (1988), Pollution status on Sangam and its adjoining river before the Kumbh Mela at Allahabad. I.J.E.P., 8(11): 839-842. 16. WHO (1984), International Standard for water. Third ed. Geneva.
56
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
DIVERSITY, ECOLOGICAL STRUCTURE AND CONSERVATION OF HERPETOFAUNA IN TRANS YAMUNATIC REGION OF MATHURA
Dr. H. B. Sharma* Mamta Warman**
INTRODUCTION
Biological diversity is fundamental to the fulfilment of human needs. An environment rich in biological diversity offers the broadest array of options for sustainable economic activity, for sustaining human welfare and for adapting to change. Loss of biodiversity has serious economic and social costs for any country. The importance of biodiversity can be understood, it is not easy to define the value of biodiversity, and very often difficult to estimate it. River Yamuna , with a total length of around 1,370 kilometers (851 mi), is the largest tributary of the Ganges in northern India. Yamuna is considered the most sacred among all the rivers as per Hindu mythology. Its source is at Yamunotri, in the Uttarakhand Himalaya, in the Himalayan Mountains. It flows through the states of Delhi, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, before merging with the Ganges at Allahabad. The cities of Delhi, Mathura and Agra lie on its banks.With gradual increase in human population, pressure on land for agriculture, urbanization, industrialization and developmental activities, the wetlands are severely endangered and decaying day by day. Wetlands provide the habitats for fauna and flora. Wetlands also serve as life support system by helping in water quality improvement, flood control, recharging of ground water, storm protections, shoreline stabilization, and regulation of hydrological regime, conservation of biological diversity and reduction of sediment loads to the water bodies.
*HOD Dept.of ZOOLOGY, BSA College Mathura **Scholar International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 57
IJREAS STUDY AREA
ISSN: 2294-3905
Ecology of this area is a less explored subject with very rare studies on herpetofauna . We describe as per our knowledge this is the first description of initial studies of this region. It extends between 2730N 7758 E longitude and 27.58N 77.70E latitudes, on the alluvial flood plain of the ganga which is fed by its tributary Yamuna. It is touched by twelve Village Development Committee at Mathura. Gokul barrage has been constructed to trap the Yamuna. Reptiles and amphibian species were served during July, August & September (Monsoon period). The impact of this precipitation is mostly influencing the water flow in the rivers through flooding. During the non-monsoon period (October to June) the river flow reduced significantly and some rivers stretches become dry. Just opposite of this, during monsoon period the rivers receives significant amount of water, which is beyond their capacity and resulting in flood. The River Yamuna also experiences such periods of drought and floods. Yamuna River carries almost 80% of total annual flow during monsoon period. The water flow reduces significantly during non-monsoon period and that too diverted from river and extensively used for irrigation and drinking purpose, leaving very little or no water flow in the river.
Satellite view of river Yamuna in Mathura
58
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Flow of river Yamuna through Mathura
METHODLOGY
Each zone of the area is studied on the basis of following geographical divisionsForest Water bodies- ponds, river, and wells. Open fields Rocky areas All the water bodies were sampled for aquatic amphibians and soil was dug to determine the presence of burrowing species. Each was randomly (biased) explored on the basis of habitat structure and possibility and availability of the species. All important major and minor water bodies, including seasonal rivulets were extensively explored for Herpetofaunal species. Identification was done according to diagnostic keys provided by Smith (1935), Daniel (1963). Sampling was conducted at each study site for these consecutive days . Mathura Upstream at Vrindavan near Chirharan Ghat this location of river is being monitored to assess the water quality of Yamuna before it enters Vrindavan Mathura. Mathura Downstream at Gokul Barrage. The site depicts the impact of wastewater discharges from
Mathura-Vrindavan city. Amphibian and reptile visual encounter surveys (ARVES) were a standard method for terrestrial herpetofauna inventories (Campbell and Christman 1982, Corn and Bury 1990, Crump and Scott 1994).In this method, the study sites were walked for International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 59
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
the prescribed time period, systematically searching for the herpetofaunal species. The species were searched throughout the region in water sources, nearby the water reservoirs and also on the trees, to ensure the covering of each type of habitat. Many techniques have been described for the inventory and monitoring of amphibian and reptile populations (Gibbons and Semlitsch 1981; Heyer et al. 1994; Olson et al. 1997).Calling is the basic characteristic of the male frogs. During the breeding season they produce sound to attract the female frogs. The calling quality of each species is quite different and may use as a distinguishing character of the frog species. This unique character of the frog was used in this method. Sound was followed by the researcher to search the frogs. Identification based on their sound in Rajasthan was made by Sharma (2005a,b).The sound spectrum identification and taxonomic categorization is not only precise but environment friendly also because this does not involve unnecessary killing and fixation of animal and data transformation is also very fast. Sharma (2005a) and his associates are using this technique to monitor the anuran species in their habitats Similarly some lizard species like H. brookii etc. Produce characteristic sound so they were also we found during the survey by this method. Transect sampling was applied to search reptiles in elevation gradients from lowlands to uplands depending on the area of study sites. In this the map of study site was marked to over most of the vegetation and aquatic habitats. Five plots, a 100 m 6 m each, leaving a gap 50 m 100 m was used as a transect. Amphibians and Reptiles are often found in specific microhabitats or patches such as underneath the logs of trees, holes and boulders. Patch sampling can be used to determine the number, relative abundance and densities in such patches. Some reptile species are common to breed in rock caves, loose barks etc. similarly amphibians are in breeding ponds and water bodies. Data on the sex ratio, size and patterns could be collected at such sites.
OBSERVATION
In and around of trans yamuna are many notable wetlands like rivers, floodplain, riverine marshes, fresh water marshes and ponds, seasonally flooded grassland, swamp forest, reservoir, paddy fields etc. These wetlands are the suitable habitat for the herpetofauna, more then 25 species were find out. Yamuna supports a wide variety of plants and animal species .The river is home of many herpetofaunal species. The bank of river are one of the most dwelling place of such species. All other visits were conducted during spring daytime hours from march last to june mid of the couple of year. Species were identified visually (adults, larvae, eggmasses) and the type of their wet microhabitat was described (brook, ditch, humic substrate, inundated land, low-land stream, puddle, well, wet grass. International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 60
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Source: Metrological Department Mathura
Observation Table MIN MAX HUMIDITY RAINFALL TOTAL RAINFALL JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 4.48 6.37 14.33 20.6 23.66 23.74 24.70 24.80 23.16 20.19 15.00 10.25 19.25 22.87 32.00 38.26 39.33 35.33 34.61 33.80 33.1 33.29 27.53 22.38 55.33 51.33 40.33 35.33 51.00 58.00 77.00 84.33 72.66 65.00 53.33 58.33 48 96 214 308 308 113 48 144 358 666 974 1087 1087 1087 -
List of herpetofauna species found in trans Yamuna at Mathura s.no 1 2 3 Species Name Hardella thurjii Starred tortoise Kachuga tentoria Common Name Brahminy Terrapin or Kali Kauntha Geochelone elegans Indian tent terrapin
61
IJREAS
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

Roofed terrapin Blood Sucker
ISSN: 2294-3905
Kachuga tecta Calotes versicolor Calotes jerdoni Calotes rouxi Sitana ponticeriana Hemidactylus flavivirdis Hemidactylus brookii Cosymbotus platyurus Mabuya carinata Lygosoma punctatus Varanus bengalensis Varanus flavescens Varanus griseus Ramphotyphlops braminus Eryx conicus Eryx johni Python molurus bivittatus Elaphe radiata Ptyas mucosus Argyrogena fasciolata Spalerosophis diadema Naja naja Naja naja Bungarus caeruleus Bufo stomaticus Euphlyctis cyanophlyctis Hoplobatrachus tigerinus Hoplobatrachus crassus Rana limnocharis Sphaerotheca breviceps Microhyla inornata Uperodon systoma
Jerdons Blood Sucker Forest calotes Fan throated lizard Northern house gecko Brooks Gecko Frilled house gecko Common Skink Snake skink Common Indian Monitor Yellow Monitor Desert Monitor Blind snake Russells earth boa Boa boa Indian Python or Rock Python Copperhead or Trinket Snake Rat Snake or Dhaman snake Banded Racer Royal or Diadem snake Indian Spectacled or Binocellate Cobra Indian Nag Black Krait Marbled toad Skipping g Frog Indian Bull Frog Jerdons Bull Frog Indian Cricket Frog Indian Burrowing Frog Burrowing microhylid frog Marbled balloon frog
62
IJREAS RESULT
ISSN: 2294-3905
Dash & Mahanta (1993) highlighted the need of extensive quantitative ecological studies on the amphibian communities in the Indian ecosystems. Habitat destruction and alteration was considered one of the most important factors (Blaustein & Wake, 1990; Khan, 1990; Ghate & Pandhye, 1996; Ravichandran,1998; Alford & Richards, 1999). Daniels ( 1 9 9 5 , 1999a); Molur & Walker (1998) highlighted the need of amphibian research and conservation in India, in terms of amphibians taxonomy, range distribution, ecology and their conservation requirements .Dash & Mahanta (1993) highlighted the need of extensive quantitative ecological studies on the amphibian communities in the Indian ecosystems. . Ashley and Robinson(1996) Observed that the road-kills of herpetofauna are a major cause of mortality for a wide variety of taxa However, management decisions to implement actions for reducing losses are based in economic realities, and herpetofauna often are low-profile species. Wilson ,et al. ,(2001)Recomanded that the biodiversity decline is one of the most serious environmental problems, if not the most serious. Since it is a problem, it cries out for solutions.
DISCUSSION
River Yamuna receives significantly high amount of organic matter, which is generally, originates from domestic sources. For biodegradation, this organic waste requires oxygen, causing significant depletion of dissolved oxygen in river water. The oxygen depletion not only affects biotic community of the river but also affects its self-purification capacity. The organic matter after biodegradation release nutrients in the water. High nutrients concentration leads to Eutrophication, a condition characterized by significant diurnal variation in dissolved oxygen concentration and excessive algal grown. Presently there is a barrage in the Yamuna river at Mathura. The barrages have impact on characteristics of Yamuna river which help forms some sort of reservoir towards upstream. This reservoir acts as oxidation pond to treat the river water, which is helpful to survive faunal diversity. Conserving biological diversity Ensuring sustainable use of the natural resource base Minimizing pollution and wasteful consumption The knowledge gaps in relation to status, distribution, impacts and institutions related to biodiversity which need to be addressed for enhanced biodiversity conservation, community empowerment, effective laws and policies and appropriate development models.
63
IJREAS CONCULSION
ISSN: 2294-3905
The innumerable life forms harboured by the forests, deserts, mountains, other land, air and oceans provide food, fodder, fuel, medicine, textiles etc. major problems confronting the wetlands to decrease in biological diversity particularly endemic and endangered species. Deterioration of water quality. Sedimentation & shrinkage in the areas. Large number of people living in and around wetlands have been encroaching upon these areas and vast areas have already been drained for agriculture, urban expansion and other purposes. Siltation is one of the major problem. Deforestation and other anthropogenic activities have accelerated soil erosion resulting in increased sedimentation rates and resultant shrinkage of wetlands. Indiscriminate discharge of industrial/domestic effluent, leachates generated from improperly disposed industrial solids waste, hazardous waste, municipal solid waste and biomedical waste in the streams/land or the catchment area of the wetlands, not only deteriorate the water quality of the system but the Toxic Pollutants i.e. trace heavy metals and trace organics are absorbed in the biomass .The residual pesticides and fertilizer generated due to excessive use of the commodities are carried away with rain water run off to the wetlands from the catchment areas. Decrease in biological diversity particularly endemic and endangered species. Clear cutting forests, draining wetlands and altering habitat may directly affect amphibian population (Petranka et al., 1993; Semlitsch, 1998; Ernst & Rodel, ss2005). It indicated that regional herpeto biodiversity status is in good position but needed conservation. The study also showed the regular depletion of the herpetofauna. In whole work it was realized that the common people of the region were not educated about the necessity of the herprtofauna. Conservation of wetland areas indiscriminately for aquaculture without proper land use planning has also resulted in the destruction of a number of wetlands, these wetlands are the primary requirement of conserve herpetonaul biodiversity. There are innumerable species, the potential of which is not as yet known. It would therefore be prudent to not only conserve the species we already have information about, but also species we have not yet identified and described from economic point of view.
REFRENCES
1. Ashley, E.P., J.T.Robinson (1996). Road mortality of amphibians,reptiles and other wildlife on the Long Point Causeway, Lake Erie, Ontario. Canadian Field-Naturalist 110, 403412. 2. Blaustein, A.R. & D.B. Wake (1990).Declining amphibian populations: a International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 64
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
3. Campbell, H.W., and S.P. Christman. (1982). Field techniques for herpetofaunal community analysis. Pages 193-200 In N. J. Scott, Jr. (ed.), Herpetological Communities, U.S.D.I. Fish and Wildlife Service, Wildlife Research Report 13, Washington, D.C. 239 pp. 4. Corn, P. S., and R. B. Bury. (1990). Sampling Methods for Terrestrial Amphibians and Reptiles. USDA Forest Service, General and Technical Report PNW-GTR-256, 34 5. Crump, M.L. and N.J. Scott, Jr. (1994). Visual encounter surveys. Pages 84- 92 in W.R. Heyer, M.A. Donnelly, R.W. McDiarmid, L.C. Hayek, and M.S. Foster, eds. Measuring and monitoring biological diversity: standard methods for amphibians. Smithsonian Institution Press. Washington DC. 6. Crump, M.L. and N.J. Scott, Jr. (1994). Visual encounter surveys. Pages 84- 92 in W.R. Heyer, M.A. Donnelly, R.W. McDiarmid, L.C. Hayek, and M.S. Foster, eds. Measuring and monitoring biological diversity: standard methods for amphibians. Smithsonian Institution Press. Washington DC. 7. Daniel, J.C. (1963a). Field guide to the amphibians of western India. Part I. 8. Daniel, J.C. (1963b). Field guide to the amphibians of western India. Part II.Journal of the Bombay Natural History Society 60(3): 690-702. 9. Dash, M.C. & J.K. Mahanta (1993).Quantitative analysis of the community structure of tropical amphibian assemblages and its significane to conservation. Journal of Bioscience 18: 10. Gibbons, J. W. and R. D. Semlitsch. (1981). Terrestrial drift fences with pitfall traps: an effective technique for quantitative sampling of animal populations. Brimleyana No. 7:1-16. global phenomenon? TREE 5: 203-204. 11. Molur, S. & S. Walker (Editors) (1998). Report of the Conservation Assessment and Management Plan (CAMP) Workshop for Amphibians of India (BCPP Endangered Species Project). ZOO/ CBSG India, Coimbatore, 102pp. 12. Petranka, J. W.M.E. Eldridge & K.E.Haley (1993). Effects of timber harvesting on southern Appalachian salamanders. Conservation Biology 7:363-370. 13. Sharma, K.K. (2005a). Sonotaxonomy: sound based taxonomy is a novel and environment friendly approach in systematics. Journal of Cell Tiss. Research 5(3): 1-2. 14. Sharma, K.K. (2005b). Wildlife monitoring by sound analysis system An authentic and precise approach in wildlife management. National Conference on Environment International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 65
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
and Natural Disaster Management, November 28-30, 2005. Dept. of Zoology, Universityof Rajasthan, Jaipur. Abstract No. IL-10, pp 118.
15. Smith, M. A. (1935). The fauna of British India. Reptiles and Amphibians. Vol. II, Sauria. Taylor and Francis, London, 305 pp. 16. Wilson L.D, McCranie J.R, and Espinal M.R. (2001)The eco-geography of the
Honduran herpetofauna and the design of biotic reserves. In: Johnson J. D, Webb, R. G, Flores-Villela, O. A, editors. Mesoamerican herpetology: systematics,
zoogeography, and conservation. University of Texas at El Paso: Centennial Museum;. pp. 109158. Special Publication 1:1200.
66
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
INDIAN STOCK MARKET TREND PREDICTION USING SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE

M. Suresh Babu* Dr. N. Geethanjali** Prof. B. Satyanarayana***
ABSTRACT
Stock return predictability has been a subject of great controversy. The debate followed issues from market efficiency to the number of factors containing information on future stock returns. The analytical tool of support vector regression on the other hand, has gained great momentum in its ability to predict time series in various applications and also in finance (Smola and Schlkopf, 1998). Support vector machines (SVM) are employed to predict stock market dailytrends: ups and downs. The purpose is to examine the effect of macroeconomic information and technical analysis indicators on the accuracy of the classifiers. The construction of a prediction model requires factors that are believed to have some intrinsic explanatory power. These explanatory factors fall largely into two categories: fundamental and technical. Fundamental factors include for example macro economical indicators, which however, are usually only infrequently published. Technical factors are based solely on the properties of the underlying time series and can therefore be calculated at the same frequency as the time series. Since this study applies support vector regression to high frequent data, only technical factors are considered. It is found that macroeconomic information is suitable to predict stock market trends than the use of technical indicators. In addition, the combination of the two sets of predictive inputs does not improve the forecasting accuracy. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy improves when trading strategies are considered. Support vector machine (SVM) is a very specific type of learning algorithms characterized by the capacity control of the decision function, the use of the kernel functions and the sparsity of the solution. In this paper, we investigate the predictability of financial movement direction with SVM by forecasting the weekly movement direction of BSE30 index. To evaluate the forecasting ability of SVM, we compare its performance with those of Linear Discriminant Analysis, Quadratic Discriminant Analysis and Elman Backpropagation Neural Networks. The experiment results show that SVM outperforms the other classification methods. Further, we propose a combining model by integrating SVM with the other classification methods. The combining model performs best among all the forecasting methods. Keywords: Support Vector Machines, Classification, Stock Market, technical indicators.
*
Principal, Intel Institute of Science, Anantapur, Andhra Pradesh , India.
**Associate Professor, Department of Computer Science, S.K. University, Anantapur. India

***
Professor & Chairman, Board of Studies, Department of Computer Science, Sri
Krishnadevaraya Univesity, Anantapur. International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 67
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
1. INTRODUCTION
Forecasting stock market behavior is a very difficult task since its dynamics are complex and non-linear. For instance, stock return series are generally noisy and may be influenced by many factors; such as the economy, business conditions, and political events to name a few. Indeed, empirical finance shows that publicly available data on financial and economic variables may explain stock return fluctuations in the Indian Stock Market. For instance, a number of applications have been proposed to forecast stock market returns with macroeconomic variables with the use of neural networks and Bayesian networks and support vector machines. On the other hand, technical indicators have been also used to predict stock market movements using neural networks, adaptive fuzzy inference system, and fuzzy logic. The literature shows that economic variables and technical indicators have achieved success in predicting the stock market. However, none of the previous studies have compared the performance of the economic information and technical indicators in terms of prediction accuracy. The financial market is a complex, evolutionary, and non-linear dynamical system. The field of financial forecasting is characterized by data intensity, noise, non stationary, unstructured nature, high degree of uncertainty, and hidden relationships. Many factors interact in finance including political events, general economic conditions, and traders expectations. Therefore, predicting finance market price movements is quite difficult. Increasingly, according to academic investigations, movements in market prices are not random. Rather, they behave in a highly non-linear, dynamic manner. The standard random walk assumption of futures prices may merely be a veil of randomness that shrouds a noisy non-linear process. Support vector machine (SVM) is a very specific type of learning algorithms characterized by the capacity control of the decision function, the use of the kernel functions and the sparsity of the solution. Established on the unique theory of the structural risk minimization principle to estimate a function by minimizing an upper bound of the generalization error, SVM is shown to be very resistant to the over fitting problem, eventually achieving a high generalization performance. Another key property of SVM is that training SVM is equivalent to solving a linearly constrained quadratic programming problem so that the solution of SVM is always unique and globally optimal, unlike neural networks training which requires nonlinear optimization with the danger of getting stuck at local minima.
68
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Some applications of SVM to financial forecasting problems have been reported recently. In most cases, the degree of accuracy and the acceptability of certain forecasts are measured by the estimates deviations from the observed values. For the practitioners in financial market, forecasting methods based on minimizing forecast error may not be adequate to meet their objectives. In other words, trading driven by a certain forecast with a small forecast error may not be as profitable as trading guided by an accurate prediction of the direction of movement. The goal of this study is to predict stock price movements only from the statistical properties of the underlying financial time series and to explore the predictability of financial market movement direction with SVM. Therefore, financial indicators are extracted from the time series, which are then used by a support vector regression (SVR) to predict market movement. 2.2.2 Support vector machines Support Vector Machines (SVM) is a supervised statistical learning technique introduced by Vapnik. It is one of the standard tools for machine learning successfully applied in many different real-world problems. For instance, they have been successfully applied in financial time series trend prediction. The SVM were originally formulated for binary classification. The SVM seek to implement an optimal marginal classifier that minimizes the structural risk in two steps. First, SVM transform the input to a higher dimensional space with a kernel (mapping) function. Second, SVM linearly combine them with a weight vector to obtain the output. As result, SVM provide very interesting advantages. They avoid local minima in the optimization process. In addition, they offer scalability and generalization capabilities. For -1,+1 SVM seek instance, to solve a binary classification problem in which the output y for a hyper-plane w.xb 0 to separate the data from classes +1 and 1 with a maximal margin. Here, x denotes the input feature vector, w is a weight vector, is the mapping function to a higher dimension, and b is the bias used for classification of samples. The maximization of the margin is equivalent to minimizing the norm of w. Thus, to find w and b, the following optimization problem is solved: Minimize : || w ||2 + C ni=1 i S.t yi (w.xib) 1 - i i 0 i = 1,......,n where C is a strictly positive parameter that determines the tradeoff between the maximum margin and the minimum classification error, n is the total number of samples, and generalization and is the error magnitude of the classification.
69
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
The conditions ensure that no training example should be within the margins. The number of training errors and examples within the margins is controlled by the minimization of the term:
The solution to the previous minimization problem gives the decision frontier: f(x) = yii(xi)(x) + b xi Where each i is a lagrange coefficient. As mentioned before the role of the kernel function is to implicitly map the input vector into a high-dimensional feature space to achieve better separability. In this study the polynomial kernel is used since it is a global kernel. For instance, global kernels allow data points that are far away from each other to have an influence on the kernel values as well. K(x,xi) = (xi) (x) = ((xi.x) + 1)d where the kernel parameter d is the degree of the polynomial to be used. In this study, d is set to 2. Finally, the optimal decision separating function can be obtained as follows:
2. THEORY Of SVM IN CLASSIFICATION

The indicators are arbitrarily chosen among a high variety of financial indicators. The chosen indicators include price differences, moving averages, relative strength and so called stochastic indicators as shown in the figure. These indicators are then preprocessed in the sense that the mean vector is subtracted and each indicator time series in divided by its variance in order to receive indicator values with zero mean and unit variance. Before the SVR model is trained, the parameters of the SVR model are optimized using a cross validation procedure on a training set. After that, the optimized model is used to predict financial market movement. In the process of model selection, models are chosen only on the basis of performance over out of sample data, in order to avoid the critique of judging the model on the basis of in sample performance. The model selection is based on a cross validation procedure commonly used in Data Mining. Our main results show that stock market prediction based on support vector regression is significantly outperforming a random stock market prediction. However, the prediction in average is only correct in 50.69 percent of times with a standard deviation of 0.26 percent.
70
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
We present a basic theory of the support vector machine model. Let D be the smallest radius of the sphere that contains the data (example vectors). The points on either side of the separating hyperplane have distances to the hyperplane. The smallest distance is called the margin of separation. The hyperplane is called optimal separating hyperplane (OSH), if the margin is maximized. Let q be the margin of the optimal hyperplane. The points that are distance q away from the OSH are called the support vectors. Consider the problem of separating the set of training vector belonging to two separate classes, G = {(xi, yi), i = 1, 2,.....,N} with a hyperplane wT (x) + b = 0 (xi Rn is the ith input vector, yi {1, 1} is known binary target), the original SVM classifier satisfies the following conditions: wT (xi) + b 1 if yi = 1, wT (xi) + b if yi = 1, or equivalently, yi[wT (xi) + b] 1 i = 1, 2........ N, (3) where : Rn Rm is the feature map mapping the input space to a usually high dimensional feature space where the data points become linearly separable. The distance of a point xi from the hyperplane is (4) The margin is 2/|w| according to its definition. Hence, we can find the hyperplane that optimally separates the data by solving the optimization problem: Min (w) = |w|2 under the constraints of Eq. (3). The solution to the above optimization problem is given by the saddle point of the Lagrange function (6) under the constraints of Eq. (3), where i are the nonnegative Lagrange multipliers. So far the discussion is restricted to the case where the training data is separable. To generalize the problem to the non-separable case, slack variable i is introduced such that (7) Thus, for an error to occur the corresponding i must exceed unity, so is to change the objective function from Eq. (5) to International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 71 is an upper (5) (1) (2)
bound on the number of training errors. Hence, a natural way to assign an extra cost for errors
IJREAS

(8)
ISSN: 2294-3905
under the constraints of Eq. (7), where C is a positive constant parameter used to control the tradeoff between the training error and the margin. In this paper, we choose C =50 based on our experiment experiences. Similarly, solve the optimal problem by minimizing its Lagrange function (9) under the constraints of Eq. (7), where i,i are the non-negative Lagrange multipliers. The KarushKuhnTucker (KKT) conditions [16] for the primal problem are (10) (11) (12) (13) i 0 i 0, 0, i i = 0 Hence, (19) We can use the KKT complementarily conditions, Eqs. (17) and (18), to determine b. Note that Eq. (12) combined with Eq. (18) shows that j = 0 if j < C. Thus we can simply take any training data for which 0< j < c to use Eq. (17) (with j = 0) to compute b. b= yj wT (xj) Hence, (21) where Ns is the number of the support vectors. For a new data x, the classification function is then given by f(x) = Sign(wT (x) + b) (22) 72 (20) It is numerically reasonable to take the mean value of all b resulting from such computing. (14) (15) (16) (17) (18)
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Substituting Eqs. (19) and (21) into Eq. (22), we get the final classification function (23) If there is a kernel function such that K(xi,xj)=(xi)T (xj), it is usually unnecessary to explicitly Know what (x) is, and we only need to work with a kernel function in the training algorithm. Therefore, the non-linear classification function is (24) Any function satisfying Mercers condition [17] can be used as the kernel function. In this investigation, the radial kernel K(s, t) = exp(1/10 ||s-t||2 ) is used as the kernel function of the SVM because the radial kernel tends to give good performance under general smoothness assumptions. Consequently, it is especially useful if no additional knowledge of the data is available. 3. Experiment design Several financial indicators are calculated in order to reduce dimensionality of the time series:
: The relative price difference of prices p(t) at time t and p(t-1) at time t-1
: The exponential moving average of the prices p(t) : The relative strength indicator of the number of upward
movement U[t n;t] and downward movements D[t n;t] in the period of t-n until time t
: The stochastic indicator of the stock price p(t), lowest stock price L[t n;t] and highest stock price H[t n;t] in the period of t-n until time t. The figure illustrates some of the properties of the indicators derived as above from a random time series. The kernel densities are estimated for each indicator with a bandwidth of 0.001. Note, that the RDP and EMA indicator are rather gaussian distributed, while the RSI and Stochastic indicators have several modes and especially the Stochastic indicator seems to be a mixture of two different gaussian distributions. In our empirical analysis, we set out to examine the weekly changes of the BSE30 Index. The BSE30 Index is calculated and disseminated. It measures the composite price performance of 225 highly capitalized stocks trading on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), representing a International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 73
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
broad cross-section of Indian industries. Trading in the index has gained unprecedented popularity in major financial markets around the world. Futures and options contracts on the BSE30 Index are currently traded on the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), the National Stock Exchange (NSE). The increasing diversity of financial instruments related to the BSE30 Index has broadened the dimension of global investment opportunity for both individual and institutional investors. There are two basic reasons for the success of these index trading vehicles. First, they provide an effective means for investors to hedge against potential market risks. Second, they create new profit making opportunities for market speculators and arbitrageurs. Therefore, it has profound implications and significance for researchers and practitioners alike to accurately forecast the movement direction of BSE30 Index.
3. MODEL INPUTS SELECTION

Most of the previous researchers have employed multivariate input. Several studies have examined the cross sectional relationship between stock index and macroeconomic variables. The potential macroeconomic input variables which are used by the forecasting models include term structure of interest rates (TS), short-term interest rate (ST), long term interest rate (LT), consumer price index (CPI), industrial production (IP), government consumption (GC), private consumption (PC), gross national product (GNP) and gross domestic product (GDP). However, Indian interest rate has dropped down to almost zero since 1990. Other macroeconomic variables weekly data are not available for our study. Indian consumption capacity is limited in the domestic market. The economy growth has a close relationship with Indian export. The largest export target for India is the United States of America (USA), which is the leading economy in the world. Therefore, the economic condition of USA influences Indian economy, which is well represented by the BSE30 Index. As the BSE30 Index to Indian economy, the S& P 500 Index is a well-known indicator of the economic condition in USA. Hence, the S& P 500 Index is selected as model input. Another import factor that affects the Indian export is the exchange rate of US Dollars against Indian Rupee (Rs), which is also selected as model input. The prediction model can be written as the following function: Directiont = F(St-1 S&P500 , St-1 IND), (25) where St-1 S&P500 and St-1 IND are first order difference natural logarithmic transformation to the raw S& P 500 index and IND at time t1, respectively. Such transformations implement an effective detrending of the original time series.
74
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
Fig. 1. First-order difference natural logarithmic weekly prices of BSE Index, S& P 500 Index. (observations from October 2010 to September 2011).
Directiont is a categorical variable to indicate the movement direction of BSE30 Index at time t.
If BSE30 Index at time t is larger than that at time t 1, Directiont is 1. Otherwise, Directiont is 1. The above model inputs selection is only based on a macroeconomic analysis. As shown in Fig. 1, the behaviours of the BSE30 Index, the S& P 500 Index are very complex. It is impossible to give an explicit formula to describe the underlying relationship between them.
3.1. Data collection We obtain the historical data from the finance section of Yahoo and the Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange respectively. The whole data set covers the period from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2010, a total of 694 pairs of observations. The data set is divided into two parts. The first part (652 pairs of observations) is used to determine the specifications of the models and parameters. The second part (42 pairs of observations) is reserved for out-of-sample evaluation and comparison of performances among various forecasting models. 3.2.Comparisons with other forecasting methods To evaluate the forecasting ability of SVM, we use the random walk model (RW) as a benchmark for comparison. RW is a one step ahead forecasting method, since it uses the current actual value to predict the future value as follows: yt+1=yt, period. We also compare the SVMs forecasting performance with that of linear discriminant analysis (LDA), quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA) and Elman backpropagation neural (26)
where yt is the actual value in the current period t and yt+1 is the predicted value in the next
75
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
networks (EBNN). LDA can handle the case in which the within class frequencies are unequal and its performance has been examined on randomly generated test data. This method maximizes the ratio of between-class variance to the within-class variance in any particular data set, thereby guaranteeing maximal separability. QDA is similar to LDA, only dropping the assumption of equal covariance matrices. Therefore, the boundary between two discrimination regions is allowed to be a quadratic surface (for example, ellipsoid, hyperboloid, etc.) in the maximum likelihood argument with normal distributions. In this chapter, we derive a linear discriminant function of the form: L(St-1 s&p500, St-1 IND) = a0 + a1 St-1 s&p500 + a2 St-1 IND) and a quadratic discriminant function of the form: Q((St-1s&p500,St-1IND) = a + P((St-1s&p500,St-1IND)T+ ((St-1s&p500,St-1IND)T((St-1s&p500, St-1 (28) where a0, a1, a2, a, P,T are coefficients to be estimated. Elman Backpropagation Neural Network is a partially recurrent neural network. The connections are mainly feed forward but also include a set of carefully chosen feedback connections that let the network remember cues from the recent past. The input layer is divided into two parts: the true input units and the context units that hold a copy of the activations of the hidden units from the previous time step. Therefore, network activation produced by past inputs can cycle back and affect the processing of future inputs. 3.3. A combining model Given a task that requires expert knowledge to perform, k experts may be better than one if their individual judgments are appropriately combined. Based on this idea, predictive performance can be improved by combining various methods. Therefore, we propose a combining model by integrating SVM with other classification methods as follows: (29) where wi is the weight assigned to classification method i, We would like to
IND
(27)
)T,
determine the weight scheme based on the information from the training phase. Under this strategy, the relative contribution of a forecasting method to the final combined score depends on the in sample forecasting performance of the learned classifier in the training phase. Conceptually, a well-performed forecasting method should be given a larger weight than the others during the score combination. In the investigation, we adopt the weight scheme as follows:
76
IJREAS

(30)
ISSN: 2294-3905
where ai is the in sample performance constructed by forecasting method i.

Table 1
Forecasting performance of different classification methods
Classification method RW LDA QDA EBNN SVM Combining model Table 2 Covariances matrices of input variables when Directiont = -1 SINDt-1 SINDt-1 St-1 S&p500 0.00015167706 0.00002147347
Hit ratio (%) 50 55 69 69 73 75
St-1 S&p500 0.00002147347 0.00044862762
4. EXPERIMENT RESULTS
Each of the forecasting models described in the last section is estimated and validated by in sample data. The model estimation selection process is then followed by an empirical evaluation which is based on the out-sample data. At this stage, the relative performance of the models is measured by hit ratio. Table 1 shows the experiment results. RW performs worst, producing only 50% hit ratio. RW assumes not only that all historic information is summarized in the current value, but also that incrementspositive or negativeare uncorrelated (random), and balanced, that is, with an expected value equal to zero. In other words, in the long run there are as many positive as negative fluctuations making long term predictions other than the trend impossible. SVM has the highest forecasting accuracy among the individual forecasting methods. One reason that SVM performs better than the earlier classification methods is that SVM is designed to minimize the structural risk, whereas the previous techniques are usually based on minimization of empirical risk. In other words, SVM seeks to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error rather than minimizing training error. So SVM is usually less vulnerable to the over fitting problem.QDA out performs LDA in term of hit ratio, because LDA assumes that all the classes have equal covariance matrices, which is not consistent with International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 77
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
the properties of input variable belonging to different classes as shown in Tables 2 and 3. In fact, the two classes have different covariance matrices. Heteroscedastic models are more appropriate than homoscedastic models. The integration of SVM and the other forecasting methods improves the forecasting performance. Different classification methods typically have access to different information and therefore produce different forecasting results. Given this, we can combine the individual forecasters various information sets to produce a single superior information set from which a single superior forecast could be produced.
Table 3 : Covariances matrices of input variables when Directiont = 1 SINDt-1 SINDt-1 St-1
S&p500
St-1 S&p500 -0.00002932242 0.00044571885
0.00018240800 -0.00002932242
The method of support vector regression includes several parameters to be chosen, which can e.g. optimized using cross validation. These parameter include the chosen kernel with parameter , the e of the e-insensitive loss function, the cost of error c and the number of training samples. The advantage of using a kernel is sometimes to be able to linearly classify inseparable cases like shown on the top of the figure. In this case, the black and white label points on the left side are not linearly separable. After the kernel transformation, however, the black and white labelled points might fall onto the same point in the new space. Here, the classification problem becomes trivial. Therefore choosing a kernel is high importance, as well as the parameter of the kernel function. Another parameter is the e of the insensitive loss function, which is illustrated on the bottom of the figure. The support vector regression model is trained placing a penalty for values, which are off target. The penalty depends on the e-insensitive loss function, with parameter e. The idea is to penalize values off target only if the difference is higher than the absolute value of e. Given the kernel K(xi,xj) = (xi)T(xj), the training set of instance-label pairs (xi,yi),i = 1,...,l, where xi Rn and yi 1, -1l , the optimization problem of the support vector machines can be formulated as min subject to yi (wT (xi) + b) 1- Ei, Ei 0.
The support vector machine then maximizes the margin of the separating hyperplane of the classes, which is equal to minimizing |w|/|t| and therefore also to minimizing |w|2 / 2.
78
IJREAS
Cross-validation
ISSN: 2294-3905
Figure 4: Cross-validation setup. Several parameter values are tested in the prediction accuracy on a training set, of which then the optimal parameter combination is chosen for further prediction on the test set.
Since the SVR parameters can be easily controlled manually, the optimal set of parameters is chosen on a test set and then used on the following training set. The cross-validation is applied as illustrated in the figure. The total data set is divided into two parts, one for crossvalidation and one for testing. A third part of the data set in order to optimize the structure of the model, like the used indicators, is omitted in this study. In order to optimize the number of training samples, the cost of error c, the kernel parameter and the parameter e of the e-insensitive loss-function, a k-fold cross-validation is used as follows: the dataset is divided into k folders of equal size; subsequently, a model is built on all possible (k) combinations of k-1 folders, and each time the remaining one folder is used for validation. The best model is the one that performs best on average over the k validation folders. The benefit of using a cross-validation procedure is that by construction it ensures that model selection is based entirely on out-of-sample rather than in-sample performance. Thus, the search for the best Support Vector Regression model is immune to a critique of drawing conclusions about the merits of a factor model based on its in-sample performance. In this study, a 10-fold cross-validation procedure was used for each parameter above. In each validation loop, different values for each parameter are chosen, while the other parameters are set constant. Then the SVR model is trained with this set of parameters and the prediction accuracy is calculated. This is done for all parameter combinations and then the combination with the maximal prediction accuracy chosen.
79
IJREAS
Basic model
ISSN: 2294-3905
Figure 5: The basic model. The machine is trained on the past values of the indicators. The resulting model is used to predict the movement on the next day (= 108 data points). After that the model is shifted and proceeds again.
The basic simulation consists of two steps: First, at month t, all historical values for all explanatory factors together with the difference in returns for the periods t - n1 till t - 1 are used to build numerous support vector regressions. Thus the dependent variable is the return of the stock in the period of t till t + n2. The variable n2 is arbitrarily chosen to 108, in order to decrease calculation time. The independent variables are the technical indicators as described above. Second, once the prediction is calculated, the model is shifted 108 data points and the model is build again in order to predict the next 108 stock price movements. Using only historically available data ensures the implementation of the trading strategy is carried out without the benefit of foresight, in the sense that investment decisions are not based on data that have become available after any of the to-be-predicted periods. Moreover, investment decisions for the to-be-predicted months are always based on the entire factor set of historical data, ensuring that no variable-selection procedures based on extensive manipulation of the whole available data have been carried out. At any rate, the utilized cross-validation procedure for model selection ensures that the best candidate model is selected on the basis of performance in the training set and not on the basis of performance on external validation samples. Results and discussion The data set consists of 5 minute closing prices p(t) for 28 stocks in the BSE Sensex. The missing stocks are Satyam and Hypo Real Estate due to data unavailability. With a time frame of nearly 7 years between April 2004 and August 2010, the data set comprises 140.000 data points per stock. International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org 80
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
From this data set, the log return of each stock i is calculated as
with price p(t) at time t as well as the market average as
over all stocks i. From this the log return above market is calculated as xi'(t) = xi(t) xmarket(t) for each stock i. Cross-validation Several parameter values are chosen for each of the machine parameters. The cost and training length parameter show linear dependencies, while the kernel parameter gamma shows a quadratic dependency. The e parameter is rather nonlinear dependent to the prediction accuracy. Several parameter conditions were tested on the first half of the data set. The figure shows the tested values for each parameter. The optimality criterion used here, is the cumulated return. Therefore, the model is trained with the parameter set, the prediction calculated and then the return resulting from the prediction is cumulated over time. The parameter values are tested on half of the data set, that is between May 2009 and July 2011. On the top left of the figure, the results for different parameter values of the cost function is shown. With an increasing cost function value, the cumulated return increases. This seems plausible, since with an increasing cost the model is trained longer. However, the parameter exploration is stopped at a cost value of 1000, since higher values increase computation time dramatically. The top right of the figure shows different parameter values for e of the e-insensitive lossfunction. Here the results seem to be rather nonlinearly related to the cumulated return, since with increasing parameter e, the cumulated return decreases only in general. However, generally, smaller values of e seem to be more successful. Since this value controls the penalty of the training algorithm, a small value indicates a fast penalty for values off-target. The kernel parameter gamma, plotted for different values on the bottom left, seems to approach an optimum value around 1. The parameter controls the shape of the kernel. With high parameter values, the kernel becomes rather flat and the model increasingly predicts future movements only linearly, which is obviously insufficient. With small parameter values, the kernel becomes very thin and training data are increasingly over fitted with decreasing generalization performance. This again results in a low prediction
performance.Last, with an increasing number of training points the prediction performance
81
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
increases. Therefore the quality of the trained model increases with the number of training samples. Prediction accuracy The optimized parameters were tested with the basic model approach described above on the second half of the data set. The prediction accuracy over all 28 stocks reached a mean of 50.69 percent with standard deviation of .26%. With this performance, the reported approach significantly outperformed a random prediction approach. Even if a gain of .69 percent might be a valuable trading prediction, this approach is market neutral and operated only on the basic statistical properties of market movements.
5. CONCLUSIONS
In this Chapter, we study the use of support vector machines to predict financial movement direction. SVM is a promising type of tool for financial forecasting. As demonstrated in our empirical analysis, SVM is superior to the other individual classification methods in forecasting weekly movement direction of BSE30 Index. This is a clear message for financial forecasters and traders, which can lead to a capital gain. However, each method has its own strengths and weaknesses. Thus, we propose a combining model by integrating SVM with other classification methods. The weakness of one method can be balanced by the strengths of another by achieving a systematic effect. The combining model performs best among all the forecasting methods. The underlying time series were derived from the Bombay Stock Exchange Index. The support vector machine was then trained in order to predict the movement of 28 stocks of the index against market. Features for training were directly extracted from the statistical properties of the time series and no fundamental information was used. The model selection was based on the performance on out-of-sample data, in order to avoid critique of foresight and was performed as cross-validation. The main result of this study is that the movement of stocks is significantly predicted only using technical indicators with support vector regression.
6. REFERENCES
1. Cristianini N, Taylor JS. An introduction to support vector machines and other kernelbased learning methods. New York: Cambridge University Press; 2000. 2. Cao LJ, Tay FEH. Financial forecasting using support vector machines. Neural Computing Applications 2001;10: 18492.
82
IJREAS
ISSN: 2294-3905
3. Tay FEH, Cao LJ. Application of support vector machines in financial time series forecasting. Omega 2001;29:30917. 4. Castanias R.P. Macro information and the Variability of Stock Market Prices. Journal of Finance 34 (1979), pp.439 5. Schwert G William. The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Information about Inflation. The Journal of Finance 36 (1981), pp.15-29. 6. Schwert G William. Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence. Journal of Finance 14 (1990), pp.1237-1257. 7. Fama EF. Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation and Money. American Economic Review 71 (1981), pp.71:545 8. Nai-Fu Chen, Roll R, Ross R. Economic Forces and The Stock Market. Journal of Business 59 (1986), pp.383-403. 9. Hardouvelis Gikas A. Macroeconomic Information and Stock Prices. Journal of Economics and Business 1987;39:131-140. 10. Darrat AF. Stock Returns, Money and Fiscal Deficits. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 25 (1990), pp.38798. 11. Blank SC. Chaos in futures market? a nonlinear dynamical analysis. Journal of Futures Markets 1991;11:71128. 12. DeCoster GP, Labys WC, Mitchell DW. Evidence of chaos in commodity futures prices. Journal of Futures Markets 1992;12:291305. 13. Frank M, Stengos T. Measuring the strangeness of gold and silver rates of return. The Review of Economic Studies 1989;56:55367. 14. Frank M, Stengos T. Measuring the strangeness of gold and silver rates of return. The Review of Economic Studies 1989;56:55367. 15. Vapnik VN. Statistical learning theory. New York: Wiley; 1998. 16. Vapnik VN. An overview of statistical learning theory. IEEE Transactions of Neural Networks 1999;10:98899.
83

IJREAS Dec2011

Caricato da

Informazioni sul documento

Descrizione originale:

Titolo originale

Copyright

Formati disponibili

Condividi questo documento

Condividi o incorpora il documento

Opzioni di condivisione

Hai trovato utile questo documento?

Questo contenuto è inappropriato?

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

IJREAS Dec2011

Caricato da

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

IJREAS

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

HEALTH, SAFETY, ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE

*Dean, Department of Management Studies, Phonics Group of Institutions, Roorkee, Uttarakhand

**Asst. Professor, Department of Management Studies, Phonics Group of Institutions, Roorkee,

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

17% 16% 11% 6% 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2%

International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-

making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters, Aarhus, 1998

Environment and Coastal Region of the Mediterranean Sea

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

on the Prior Informed Consent Procedure for Certain

Hazardous Chemicals and Pesticides in International Trade, Rotterdam, 1998.

Stockholm Convention Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants Stockholm, 2001.

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

Western Regional Climate Action Initiative

EFFECT OF CARBON EMISSION

ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT

International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

Figure1: Components within a physical environment

International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

EFFECTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

DEVELOPMET MASTER PLAN PLANNING MASS MEDIA

FEDERAL STATE RELATION

EDUCATION & ETHICS GENERAL PUBLIC NGOS

Figure 3: Environmental management framework

HOW STAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

GO GREEN FOR LIFE OF HEALTH AND SUSTAINABILITY

International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

http://www.iea.org/publications/free_new_Desc.asp?PUBS_ID=1927. Retrieved 201005-04.

International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

http://www.pbl.nl/images/Top20-CO2andGHG-countries-in2006-2005(GB)_tcm6136276.xls. Retrieved 2010-05-01. 8. http://www.eurojournals.comejss_9_2_08.pdf (Environment Degradation and

International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

MAXIMUM POWER POINT TRACKER

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)

Figure 2: PV module is directly connected to a (variable) resistive load

MAXIMUM POWER POINT TRACKING ALGORITHMS

International Journal of Research in Engineering & Applied Sciences http://www.euroasiapub.org

Volume 1, Issue 4 (December 2011)