Technical Analysis of selected scrips of Telecom, Infrastructure and Banking sectors

By (P.BALA KUMAR) (REG. NO. 0929026)

A PROJECT REPORT Submitted to the

CRESCENT BUSINESS SCHOOL in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the degree of MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION APRIL 2011

BONAFIDE CERTIFICATE

Certified that the project report titled Technical Analysis of selected scrip for Telecom, Infrastructure and Bank is the bonafide work of Mr. (P.BALA KUMAR)(REG. NO. 0929026) who carried out the research under my supervision. Certified further, that to the best of my knowledge the work reported herein does not form part of any other project report or dissertation on the basis of which a degree or award was conferred on earlier occasion on this or any other candidate.

(Mrs.PANBOLI) Assistant professor(senior grade) Crescent business school Internal guide

(Mr.YESUDASAN) Regional head , B M A wealth creators. Chennai External guide

Dr. MIRZA S. SAIYADAIN Dean, CBS

INTERNAL EXAMINER

EXTERNALEXAMINER

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I express my profound thanks to our respected Vice-Chancellor Dr. P. KANNIAPPAN, M.Sc. Ph.D., and our Registrar Dr. V.M. PERIASAMY, B.E., M.E., Ph.D., for their enthusiastic support and help in providing all resources behind the scenes. I wish to regard my sincere thanks to Dr. MIRZA S. SAIYADAIN, M.A., Ph.D., Professor and Dean, Crescent Business School, B.S. Abdur Rahman University, Vandalur, Chennai 600048. I would like to thank to my guide , Mrs. PANBOLI Assistant Professor, Crescent Business School, for her full involvement in every part of my project. I would like to thank my external guide MR. YESUDASAN Manager, B M A wealth creators. for his morale support and encouragement, which helped me in carrying out the project successfully. I sincerely thank all the staff members of the Crescent Business School for their valuable advice and kind cooperation, without which the project would not have emerged as a successful one. It is once again a pleasure to acknowledge to my parents, friends and family members for their constructive and valuable suggestions towards improvement of this project.

Place: Chennai Date:

(P.BALAKUMAR)

ABSTRACT

The project titled Technical Analysis of selected scrip for Telecom, Infrastructure and Bank was undertaken B M A wealth creators at chennai. The study was conducted on few scrips price movements from a period of one year from april 2010 to march 2011.. Three industries are taken for analysis namely infrastructure, banking, and telecommunication. The chart provides signals for the existing, prospective investors or the willing sellers to decide as to when they can buy or sell their scrips, in order to get best returns on their investments.

Technical analysis attempts to explain and forecast changes in security prices by studying only the market data rather than information about a company or its prospects as is done by fundamental analyst. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security's intrinsic value; instead they look at stock charts for patterns and indicators that will determine a stock's future performance.

The research started with clear analysis and understanding of the problem. The problem was then classified in to primary and secondary objectives based on the need. Data has been presented and analysed using suitable scaling technique and tools. Using the results findings and suggestions are given at the end of the report.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER NO. TITLE PAGE NO Vi Vii

LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES

1

INTRODUCTION
1.1 Company Profile 1.2 Objectives of the study 1.3 Need For Study 4 5 1 4

1.4 Scope of the Study

2

Literature Survey
2.1 Review of Literature 2.2 Research Gap 2.3 Research Design 6 6 7

Methodologies
3.1 Profile of selected company 3.2 Assumptions, Constraints and Limitations 3.3 Data Processing 3.4 Tools for Analysis 8 17 18 18

Data Analysis and Interpretation 4.1 Relative Strength Index 4.2 Correlation Analysis Method 4.3 Rate of Change 20 29 34

Conclusions 5.1Findings & Suggestions 46

5.2Conclusions 6 Appendix 6.1Bibliography 49

48

LIST OF TABLES TABLE NO. 4.1.1 4.1.2 4.1.3 4.1.1 TABLE NAME Calculation Of Day RSI For AIRTEL Calculation Of Day RSI For RCOM Calculation Of Day RSI For IDEA
CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK RETURN(SBI)AND MARKET RETURN(NSE)

PAGE NO 21 23 26 29

4.1.2

CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK RETURN(PNB)AND MARKET RETURN(NSE)

30

4.1.3

CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK RETURN(ICICI)AND MARKET RETURN(NSE)

32

vi

LIST OF FIGURES AND CHARTS FIGURE NO. 4.1.1 showing DLF 4.1.2 showing Simple Moving Average Curve of RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE 4.1.3 showing Simple Moving Average Curve of GMR INFRASTRUCTURE 4.1.4 4.1.5 4.1.6 4.1.7 4.1.8 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of BHARTI AIRTEL showing Simple Moving Average Chart of RELIANCE COMMUNICATION showing Simple Moving Average Chart of IDEA showing Simple Moving Average Chart of STATE BANK OF INDIA showing Simple Moving Average Chart of PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK 4.1.9 4.1.10 4.1.11 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of ICICI showing Simple Moving Average Chart of DLF showing Simple Moving Average Chart of RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE 4.1.12 showing Simple Moving Average Chart of GMR INFRASTRUCTURE
vii

FIGURE NAME Simple Moving Average Curve of

PAGE NO 35

36

37

39 40 41 42 43

44 45 46

47

CHAPTER-1

INTRODUCTION 1.1COMPANY PROFILE

BMA Group, having interests in Refractory, Iron & Steel, Ferro Alloys etc. and having an aggregate turnover of about Rs 1100 crs. had diversified into financial services in the year 2005 through setting up of BMA Wealth Creators. Other BMA Group companies BMA Stainless Ltd. Maithan Alloys Ltd. Maithan Smelters Ltd. National Refractories Anjaney Ferro Alloys Ltd. The Behar Potteries Ltd.

A premier financial services organization providing individual and corporates with ustomized financial solutions. We work towards understanding your financial goals and risk profile. Our expertise combined with thorough understanding of the financial markets results in appropriate investment solutions for you. At Wealth Creators we realize your dreams, needs, aspirations, concerns and resources are unique. This is reflected in every move we make with and for you. We have deep appreciation for the Value of building an everlasting relationship with YOU. Our financial services corporate entities are represented by : BMA WEALTH CREATORS LTD. which holds corporate membership in two ofthe premier bourses viz. National Stock Exchange Ltd and Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd. and as Depository Participant in Central Depositories Services Ltd. (CDSL) and National Securities Depositories Ltd. (NSDL)

Members
9

1. National Stock Exchange Of India Ltd (NSE) 2. The Stock Exchange , Mumbai (BSE) Area of specialization Buying, selling and dealing in shares and other securities in secondary markets. Identifying investment avenues and advising on portfolio management of cash

Services offered Service is required in everything, in research, in execution and in settlement. It is going to be the key to survival. If given good service and value to your clients, it will translate into good business. This has been a strong belief of the board members and they have not only practiced it but also made efforts to inculcate similar values in the employees of the organization. Brokerage Highly competitive People Efficient personal at the trading terminals to give you live quotes or accept orders. Trained and quick dealers to obtain best rates on-line. Place Funds they pride themselves in being very prompt and totally reliable they have built their reputation by honoring their commitments on time Fully air- conditioned trading premises Comfortable ambience Adequate telephone and fax lines, direct lines for outstation calls. E-Mail

Communication

Special facilities Also dedicated telephone line and/or dealer can be assigned for clients who need the facility.
10

Management team The organization finds its growth in its team of young, talented and confident individuals. Qualified professionals carry out different functions under the leadership of its promoters. Infrastructure Greatest attention has been paid to transparency and speed with least scope for human intervention in order execution and confirmation. They have separate trading terminals for those clients who trade on the telephone with trained telephone- handlers as dealers. Reputation for prompt payments and top of the line world-class service levels has provided them immense credibility in the market place. Clientele consists of numerous highly valuable and long-standing accounts that will vouch for our reliability and credibility. Staff consists of highly skilled, motivated and qualified personnel who have been well-trained to spare no effort in providing ultimate customer satisfaction.

1.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY Primary Objective

11

To analyze the selected scrips of Telecom, Infrastructure and Banking sectors through technical analysis. Secondary Objectives To make simple moving average chart for selected companies under nifty To analyze and compare the signals revealed by simple moving average. To give suggestions to investors for effective usage of simple moving average as an indicator.

1.3 NEED FOR THE STUDY It is well known that money is the blood of life. In the current scenario, protecting and multiplying the money is more important than earning. There are many ways of investment and one of the popular methods is by investing in the shares and Mutual funds. Investment in these requires certain basic knowledge and involves a lot of risk. There are various tools available for evaluating the performance of the investments in shares. One such tool is the technical analysis, that helps in predicting the future movement of prices.

Technical analysis involves calculation and includes the drawing of graphs to track the existing movement and to extend it to the future for predicting the future prices. It helps the investor in making the investment decision whether to buy the shares of these companies when their prices are at a hike or to sell when they drop with the help of the analysis and the charts used in this study. It also helps in reducing the risk involved in investment of shares by the investors.

1.4 SCOPE OF THE STUDY The study is conducted with the price movements of the selected company shares for a certain period only. This study helps an investor to take timely and correct decision regarding the investment. This study is limited
12

to

selected

industries

(Infrastructure,

Telecommunication, Bank) This study can also be used as a referral for other forth coming studies in the similar field.

CHAPTER -2 LITERATURE SURVEY

2.1 REVIEW OF LITERATURE

13

These paper titled early mover advantage Govert E. Bijwaard Maarten C.W. Janssen*Emiel Maasland, December 22, 2004 We find a clear early mover advantage, mainly caused by the influence of the penetration rate: it pays to enter when still few people have acquired a mobile telephone. Another important determining factor is the HerfindahlHirschman Index at the moment of entry: it is significantly easier to enter a highly concentrated industry. These paper titled A Projection of Best Emerging Bank in Sultanate of Oman Damodharan .V. S.* and Rengarajan.V, January 2008 But in practice this gives an overview of the performance of banks on different parameters used. An attempt has been made to analyze the performance of banks using Price Earnings ratios as well as statistical models. The results were also tested using fundamental and technical analysis of security analysis.These paper titled The di_usion of infrastructure dependent technologies: A simple model We thereby consider the development of large from an evolutionary perspective. We _rst provide a concise overview describing the literature on the evolution 1 of large technical systems in Section 2 and identify a set of characteristics that should be captured by our model. A model based on this description is then presented in Section 3. Section 4 describes model results as well as a comparison with data concerning the evolution of the LPG system in the Netherlands.Finally Section 5 concludes.

2.2 RESEARCH GAP The above papers dealt technical analysis of only limited companies under Telecom, infrastructure and Banking sectors .Hence this research targeted the following companies for the study of technical analysis 1) Telecom 2) Infrastructure 3) Banking .

2.3 RESEARCH DESIGN

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Research is an active, diligent and systematic process of inquiry in order to discover, interpret or revise facts, events, behaviours, or theories, or to make practical applications with the help of such facts, laws or theories. The term "research" is also used to describe the collection of information about a particular subject. It means a systematic investigation, including research development, testing and evaluation, designed to develop or contribute to general knowledge. Activities which meet this definition constitute research for purposes of this policy, whether or not they are conducted or supported under a program which is considered research for other purposes.

Research Methodology refers to the way in which the data are collected for the research project and also includes all the techniques, methods and procedures adopted in research work to carry out research. It includes the sequence of steps involved in carrying out the research.

The research design is the conceptual structure within which research is conducted. A design is used to structure the research, to show how all of the major parts of the research project -- the samples or groups, measures, treatments or programs, and methods of assignment -- work together to try to address the central research questions.

This is an Analytic research. Analytical research aims at analyzing the current scenario and thereby using that to project the future performance. For the purpose of the study the following are the industries chosen based on the data available. The name of the industries and the companies are given below.

CHAPTER -3 METHODOLOGIES

3.1 PROFILE OF SELECTED COMPANIES

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 Telecommunication Bharti Airtel Reliance Communication Limited Idea Cellular Limited Banks State Bank Of India Punjab National Bank ICICI Bank Limited Infrastructure DLF Reliance Infrastructure GMR INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY Infrastructure is the basic physical and organizational structures needed for the operation of a society or enterprise, or the services and facilities necessary for an economy to function. The term typically refers to the technical structures that support a society, such as roads, water supply, sewers, power grids, telecommunications, and so forth. Viewed functionally, infrastructure facilitates the production of goods and services; for example, roads enable the transport of raw materials to a factory, and also for the distribution of finished products to markets. In some contexts, the term may also include basic social services such as schools and hospitals. In military parlance, the term refers to the buildings and permanent installations necessary for the support, redeployment, and operation of military forces. Encompassing all things to all people is hardly a useful way to define infrastructure clouding investors, governments, and their citizens ability to understand, advocate, and direct capital toward durable, networked assets with widespread societal benefits. Primary infrastructure components are generally monopolistic in nature and require large financial commitments for their development, repair and replacement. They can be built, touched, enabled, disabled, and function together to form interrelated, dependent systems that deliver needed commodities and services to society. In doing so, they facilitate economic productivity and promote a standard of living. Infrastructure can then be more concisely defined as The physical components of interrelated systems providing commodities and services essential to enable, sustain, or enhance societal living conditions.
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 DLF DLF Limited or DLF (originally Delhi Land and Finance) is India's biggest real estate developer based in New Delhi, India. The DLF Group was founded by Raghuvendra Singh in 1946. DLF developed residential colonies in Delhi such as Shivaji Park ( which was actually its first one), Rajouri Garden, Krishna Nagar, South Extension, Greater Kailash, Kailash Colony and Hauz Khas. In 1957, with the passage of Delhi Development Act, the local government assumed control of real estate development in Delhi and banned private real estate developers. As a result DLF began acquiring land at relatively low cost outside the area controlled by the Delhi Development Authority, in the district of Gurgaon, in the adjacent state of Haryana. In the mid-1970s, the company started developing DLF City project at Gurgaon. Its upcoming plans include hotels, infrastructure and special economic zones-related development projects. The company is currently headed by Indian billionaire Kushal Pal Singh, a Jat from BulandShahar. Kushal Pal Singh, according to the Forbes listing of richest billionaires in 2009, now stands as the 98th richest man in the world and the world's richest property developer. The company's US$ 2 billion IPO in July, 2007 created India's biggest IPO in history. In July 2007, DLF announced its first quarter results ending 30 June 2007. The company reported a turnover of Rs. 3,120.98 Crore and PAT at Rs. 1,515.48 Crore.

Reliance Infrastructure Reliance Infrastructure, (BSE: 500390) formerly known as Reliance Energy and prior to that as Bombay Suburban Electric Supply (BSES), Its India's largest private sector enterprise in power utility and its a company under the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group banner, one of India's largest conglomerates. The company is headed by Anil Ambani. The company's corporate headquarters is situated in Mumbai. The company is the sole distributor of electricity to consumers in the suburbs of Mumbai. It also runs power generation, transmission and distribution businesses in other parts of Maharashtra, Goa and Andhra Pradesh. Reliance Energy plans to increase its power generation capacity by adding 16,000 MW with investments of $13 billion. GMR GMR Group is a major infrastructure company in India which is headquartered in Bangalore. The company was founded in 1978. The core business areas of the company
17

include airports, energy and highways; apart from having presence in the agriculture and aviation sectors. They are also actively involved in community service as a part of Corporate Social Responsibility.

Airports. Roads and Highways Energy Agriculture Aviation

TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY The Indian telecommunications industry is one of the fastest growing in the world and India is projected to become the second largest telecom market globally by 2010. In April 2008, India overtook the US as the second largest wireless market, and as a pointer to the increasing global influence of Indian telecom companies, seven Indians have featured in the list of the world's 100 most influential telecom leaders, compiled by Global Telecoms Business, an industry magazine. According to CRISIL Research estimates, eight infrastructure sectors, which include the telecom sector, are expected to draw more than US$ 345.28 billion investment in India by 2012. With the rural India growth story unfolding, the telecom sector is likely to see tremendous growth in India's rural and semi-urban areas in the years to come. By 2012, India is likely to have 200 million rural telecom connections at a penetration rate of 25 per cent. And according to a report jointly released by Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and

18

Ernst & Young, by 2012, rural users will account for over 60 per cent of the total telecom subscriber base. It is projected that the industry will generate revenues worth US$ 43 billion in 200910.India's telecom equipment manufacturing sector is set to become one of the largest globally by 2010. Mobile phone production is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 28.3 per cent from 2006 to 2011, totaling 107 million handsets by 2010. Revenues are estimated to grow at a CAGR of 26.6 per cent from 2006 to 2011, touching US$ 13.6 billion

Bharati Airtel Bharti Airtel Limited (NSE: BHARTIARTL, BSE: 532454), commonly known as airtel, is an Indian telecommunications company that operates in 19 countries across South Asia, Africa and the Channel Islands. It operates a GSM network in all countries, providing 2G or 3G services depending upon the country of operation. Airtel is the fifth largest telecom operator in the world with over 207.8 million subscribers across 19 countries at the end of 2010. It is the largest cellular service provider in India, with over 152.5 million subscribers at the end of 2010. Airtel is the 3rd largest in-country mobile operator by subscriber base, behind China Mobile and China Unicom.. Airtel also offers fixed line services and broadband services. It offers its telecom services under the Airtel brand and is headed by Sunil Bharti Mittal. Bharti Airtel is the first Indian telecom service provider to achieve this Cisco Gold Certification. To earn Gold Certification, Bharti Airtel had to meet rigorous standards for networking competency, service, support and customer satisfaction set forth by Cisco. The company also provides land-line telephone services and broadband Internet access (DSL) in over 96 cities in India. It also acts as a carrier for national and international long distance communication services. The company has a submarine cable landing station at Chennai, which connects the submarine cable connecting Chennai and Singapore. It is known for being the first mobile phone company in the world to outsource everything except marketing and sales and finance. Its network (base stations, microwave links, etc.) are maintained by Ericsson, Nokia Siemens Network and Huawei.,[4] business support by IBM and transmission towers by another company (Bharti Infratel Ltd. in India).[5] Ericsson agreed for the first time, to be paid by the minute for installation and maintenance of their equipment rather than being paid up front. This enabled the company to provide pan-India phone call
19

rates of Rs. 1/minute (U$0.02/minute). Call rates have come down much further.[6] During the last financial year [2009-10], Bharti has roped in a strategic partner Alcatel-Lucent to manage the network infrastructure for the Telemedia Business.

Reliance Communication Limited In July 2007, the company announced it was buying US-based managed ethernet and application delivery services company Yipes Enterprise Services for a cash amount of 1200 crore (the equivalent of US$300 million). The deal was announced of the overseas acquisition, the Reliance group has amalgamated the United States-based Flag Telecom for $210 million (roughly 950 crore). RTL operates in Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh, Orissa, Bihar, Assam, Kolkata and Northeast, offering GSM services. Reliance communications limited provides integrated converged communications services to individual, enterprise, and carrier customers primarily in India. With more than 48 million customers, the company serves consumers and enterprises with a digital network supporting voice, data, and video the company offers wireless, wireline, national long distance, international, voice, data, video and internet based communication services. Its services for individual customers primarily include mobile, fixed wireless phone, fixed wireless terminal, roaming, landline, internet connection, phone community, and public calling office. IDEA Cellular Limited Idea Cellular, usually referred to as !dea, (BSE: 532822, NSE: IDEA) is a wireless telephony company operating in all the 22 telecom circles in India based in Mumbai. It is the 3rd largest GSM company in India behind Airtel,Vodafone.

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Idea Cellular is part of the Aditya Birla Group, which is India's first truly multinational corporation. India's leading GSM Mobile Services operator, IDEA Cellular has licenses to operate in 11 circles. With a customer base of over 17 million, IDEA Cellular has operations in Delhi, Maharashtra, Goa, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Uttaranchal, Haryana, UP-West, Himachal Pradesh and Kerala. IDEA Cellular's footprint currently covers approximately 45% of India's population and over 50% of the potential telecom-market. BANKING INDUSTRY

A bank is a financial intermediary and appears in several related basic forms:

a central bank issues money on behalf of a government, and regulates the money supply

a commercial bank accepts deposits and channels those deposits into lending activities, either directly or through capital markets. A bank connects customers with capital deficits to customers with capital surpluses on the world's open financial markets.

a savings bank, also known as a building society in Britain is only allowed to borrow and save from members of a financial cooperative

Banks often start as microcredit or savings clubs which become formalized, first as credit unions and later savings banks which transform themselves from cooperatives to limited liability companies. A fuller description of these forms appears below. Banking is generally a highly regulated industry, and government restrictions on financial activities by banks have varied over time and location. The current set of global bank capital standards are called Basel II. In some countries such as Germany, banks have historically owned major stakes in industrial corporations while in other countries such as the United States banks are prohibited from owning non-financial companies. In Japan, banks are usually the nexus of a cross-share holding entity known as the keiretsu. In Iceland banks had very light regulation prior to the 2008 collapse.

The oldest bank still in existence is Monte dei Paschi di Siena, headquartered in Siena, Italy, and has been operating continuously since 1472.

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For the past three decades Indias banking system has several outstanding achievements to its credit. The most striking is its extensive reach. It is no longer confined to only metropolitans or cosmopolitans in India. In fact, Indian banking system has reached even to the remote corners of the country. This is one of the main reasons of Indias growth process.

The industry is currently in a transition phase. On the one hand, the public sector banks, which are the mainstay of the Indian banking system, are in the process of shedding their flab in terms of excessive manpower, excessive Non Performing Assests and excessive governmental equity, while on the other hand the private sector banks are consolidating themselves through mergers and acquisitions. A burgeoning economy, financial sector reforms, rising foreign investment, favorable regulatory climate and demographic profile has led to India becoming one of the fastest growing banking market in the world. The overall banking industrys business grew at a CAGR of about 20 per cent from US$ 469.4 billion as of March 2002, to US$ 1171.29 billion by March 2007. Aggregate bank deposits of banks increased by us$129.26 billion (22.1 percent) at the end of March 2007 over the corresponding in 2006. It further increased by 21.2 percent to US$ 161.47 billion as at end march 2008 over the corresponding period in 2007.while aggregate demand deposits increased by 19.2 percent, aggregate time deposits increased by 21.6 percent in the same period, indicating migration from small savings schemes of the government. Also. the banking sector has been doing exceedingly well on the financial front.

Punjab National Bank Punjab National Bank (PNB) is one of India's largest nationalized banks, with some 4,500 locations. Punjab National Bank is serving over 3.5 crore customers through 4525 Offices including 432 extension counters - largest amongst Nationalized Banks. The Bank was recently ranked 21st amongst top 500 companies by the leading financial daily, Economic Times.

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The bank has been focussing on expanding its operations outside India and has identified some of the emerging economies which offer large business potential. Bank has set up representative offices at Almaty: Kazakhistan, Shanghai: China and in London. Besides, Bank has opened a fully fledged Branch in Kabul, Afghanistan.

ICICI bank Limited ICICI Bank (NSE: ICICIBANK, BSE: 532174, NYSE: IBN) (formerly Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India, Hindi: ) is a major banking and financial services organization in India. It is the second largest bank in India and the largest private sector bank in India by market capitalization. The bank also has a network of 2,016 branches (as on 31 March 2010) and about 5,219 ATMs in India and presence in 18 countries, as well as some 24 million customers (at the end of July 2007). ICICI Bank offers a wide range of banking products and financial services to corporate and retail customers through a variety of delivery channels and specialization subsidiaries and affiliates in the areas of investment banking, life and non-life insurance, venture capital and asset management. (These data are dynamic.) ICICI Bank is also the largest issuer of credit cards in India. ICICI Bank's shares are listed on the stock exchanges at BSE, NSE, Kolkata and Vadodara (formerly Baroda) ; its ADRs trade on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The Bank is expanding in overseas markets and has the largest international balance sheet among Indian banks. ICICI Bank now has wholly owned subsidiaries, branches and representatives offices in 19 countries, including an offshore unit in Mumbai. This includes wholly owned subsidiaries in Canada, Russia and the UK (the subsidiary through which the HiSAVE savings brand[5] is operated), offshore banking units in Bahrain and Singapore, an advisory branch in Dubai, branches in Belgium, Hong Kong and Sri Lanka, and representative offices in Bangladesh, China, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Africa, Thailand, the United Arab Emirates and USA. Overseas, the Bank is targeting the NRI (Non-Resident Indian) population in particular. ICICI reported a 1.15% rise in net profit to 1,014.21 crore on a 1.29% increase in total income to 9,712.31 crore in Q2 September 2008 over Q2 September 2007. The bank's CASA ratio increased to 30% in 2008 from 25% in 2007. ICICI Bank is one of the Big Four banks of India, along with State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank and HDFC Bank
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 State Bank Of India State Bank of India is the nation's largest bank. Tracing its roots back some 200 years to the British East India Company (and initially established as the Bank of Calcutta in 1806), the bank operates more than 14,000 branches within India, where it also owns majority stakes in seven associate banks. State Bank of India has more than 50 offices in nearly 35 other countries, including multiple locations in the US, Canada, and Nigeria. The bank has other units devoted to capital markets, fund management, factoring and commercial services, and brokerage services. The Reserve Bank of India owns about 60% of State Bank of India. The banks dealing rooms provide 24-hour trading facilities and employs state-of-theart technology and information systems. SBIs relationships with over 700 correspondent banks and institutions across the globe enhance the strength of the Forex treasury. Data Collection The data used for this study is secondary data. The daily price movements of the companies have been collected from the website nseindia.com The data include the daily price movements of the companies for the period of one year from April 2010 to March 2011. 3.2 ASSUMPTION As a first step in improving on "naive" forecasting models, non seasonal patterns and trends can be extrapolated using a moving-average or smoothing model. The basic assumption behind averaging and smoothing models is that the time series is "locally stationary" with a slowly varying mean. Hence, we take a moving (i.e., local) average to estimate the current value of the mean, and use this as the forecast. This can be considered as a compromise between the mean model and the random walk model. The moving average is often called a "smoothed" version of the original series, since short-term averaging has the effect of smoothing out the bumps in the original series. By adjusting the degree of smoothing (i.e., the "width" of the moving average), we can hope to strike some kind of optimal balance between the performance of the mean and random walk models.

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LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY The limitations are, period of study is limited few months only. The study is conducted only on selected industries, and few stocks. The data of previous one year from April 2010 to march 2011 is only taken. The market discounts everything, therefore it is difficult to arrive on a consensus based on just a particular tool prediction alone.

3.3 DATA PROCESSING

Type of data Sources Companys annual report Companys website Secondary Data

Research Period 1 year (from April 2010 to March 2011)

3.4 Tools Analysis Quantitative method Regression Rate of change

Relative Strength Index

SPSS software used for analysis.

CHAPTER-4
25

DATA ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Analysis of share price movements of Telecom, Bank and Infrastructure by using technical analysis

Introduction

Technical analysis is a financial markets technique that claims the ability to forecast the future direction of security prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume Technical analysts believe that the historical performance of stocks and markets are indications of future performance.

Tools used 1. Relative Strength Index 2. Regression Line 3. Rate of change

CALCULATIONS

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4.1 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI's full name is actually rather unfortunate as it is easily confused with other forms of Relative Strength analysis such as John Murphy's "Relative Strength" charts and IBD's "Relative Strength" rankings. Most other kinds of "Relative Strength" stuff involve using more than one stock in the calculation. Like most true indicators, the RSI only needs one stock to be computed. In order to avoid confusion, many people avoid using the RSI's full name and just call it "the RSI."

Calculation of RSI
100 RSI = 100 - -----------1 + RS

RS = Average Gain / Average Loss To simplify our explanation of the formula, the RSI has been broken down into its basic components which are the RS, the Average Gain, and the Average Loss. To calculate RSI values for a given dataset, first find the magnitude of all gains and losses for the 9 periods prior to the time where you wish to start the calculation. (Note: 9 is the standard number of periods used when calculating the RSI. If a different number is specified, just substitute that number in for "9" throughout this discussion.) To start the running calculation, the First Average Gain is calculated as the total of all gains during the past 9 periods divided by 9. Similarly, the First Average Loss is calculated as the total magnitude of all losses during the past 9 periods divided by 9. The next values for the "averages" are calculated by taking the previous value, multiplying it by 8, adding in the next Gain (or Loss), and then dividing by 9. This is Wilder's modified "smoothing" technique in

Action .The RS value is simply the Average Gain divided by the Average Loss for each period. Finally, the RSI is simply the RS converted into an oscillator that goes between zero and 100 using this formula: 100 - (100 / RS + 1).

Table 4.1.1 Calculation Of Day RSI For AIRTEL

DATE PRICE VALUE GAIN LOSE RSI

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03-Jan-11 04-Jan-11 05-Jan-11 06-Jan-11 07-Jan-11 10-Jan-11 11-Jan-11 12-Jan-11 13-Jan-11

359.35 355.3 349.9 353.25 338.7 338.85 339.2 348.5 346.05

-4.05 -5.4 3.35 -14.55 0.15 0.35 9.3 -2.45

-4.05 -5.4 3.35 -14.55 0.15 0.35 9.3 13.15 3.2875 -2.45 -26.45 -6.6125

-0.49716 33.20419

14-Jan-11 17-Jan-11 18-Jan-11 19-Jan-11 20-Jan-11 21-Jan-11 24-Jan-11 25-Jan-11 27-Jan-11

342.7 347.6 344.5 344.05 340.3 336.6 333.85 336.85 325.65

342.7 4.9 -3.1 -0.45 -3.75 -3.7 -2.75 3 -11.2

-3.35 4.9 -3.1 -0.45 -3.75 -3.7 2.75 3 7.9 3.95 -11.2 -22.8 -3.25714

-1.21272 54.8063 5

28-Jan-11 31-Jan-11 01-Feb-11 02-Feb-11 03-Feb-11 04-Feb-11 07-Feb-11 08-Feb-11 09-Feb-11

327.1 318.55 314.6 323.25 339.8 331.8 334 333.25 332.35

327.1 -8.55 -3.95 8.65 16.55 -8 2.2 -0.75 -0.9

1.45 -8.55 -3.95 8.65 16.55 -8 2.2 -0.75 -0.9 -22.15 -4.43

28.85 7.2125

-1.6281 61.9482 5

10-Feb-11 11-Feb-11 14-Feb-11 15-Feb-11 16-Feb-11 17-Feb-11 18-Feb-11 21-Feb-11 22-Feb-11

323.05 319.55 327.3 328.75 328.15 338.45 332.15 331.95 331.15

323.05 -3.5 7.75 1.45 -0.6 10.3 -6.3 -0.2 -0.8

-9.3 -3.5 7.75 1.45 -0.6 10.3 -6.3 -0.2 -0.8 -20.7 -3.45

19.5 6.5

-1.88406

28

65.3259 4

23-Feb-11 24-Feb-11 25-Feb-11 28-Feb-11 01-Mar-11 03-Mar-11 04-Mar-11 07-Mar-11 08-Mar-11

327.85 325.35 329.2 331.1 337.85 330.7 326.75 323.95 334.2

327.85 -2.5 3.85 1.9 6.75 -7.15 -3.95 -2.8 10.25

-3.3 -2.5 3.85 1.9 6.75 -7.15 -3.95 -2.8 10.25 22.75 5.6875 -19.7 -3.94

-1.44353 59.1002

09-Mar-11 10-Mar-11 11-Mar-11 14-Mar-11 15-Mar-11 16-Mar-11 17-Mar-11 18-Mar-11 21-Mar-11

332.3 329.7 322.85 321.55 314.2 320.45 318.3 317.9 317.35

332.3 -2.6 -6.85 -1.3 -7.35 6.25 -2.15 -0.4 -0.55

-1.9 -2.6 -6.85 -1.3 -7.35 6.25 -2.15 -0.4 -0.55 -23.1 -2.8875

6.25 6.25

-2.1645 68.3944 4

22-Mar-11 23-Mar-11 24-Mar-11 25-Mar-11 28-Mar-11 29-Mar-11 30-Mar-11

325.85 330.4 332.9 339.1 347.8 359.5 359.25

325.85 4.55 2.5 6.2 8.7 11.7 -0.25

8.5 4.55 2.5 6.2 8.7 11.7 42.15 7.025 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25

-28.1 96.56357

Inference The broad rule is, if the RSI crosses seventy three may be downturn and it is time to sell. If the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the scrip.If the share price value of Airtel is in the position of up trend,it gives a clear signal of sell.the term oversold describes a security or market that has declined to an unreasonably low level.this condition is characeried by an increase in sales and excess of net declines.
29

Table 4.1.2 Calculation Of Day RSI For RCOM

DATE
03-Jan-11 04-Jan-11 05-Jan-11 06-Jan-11 07-Jan-11 10-Jan-11 11-Jan-11 12-Jan-11 13-Jan-11

PRICE
147.9 144.2 140.15 139.95 139.1 135 137.8 138.3 138.5

VALUE -3.7 -4.05 -0.2 -0.85 -4.1 2.8 0.5 0.2

GAIN

LOSS -3.7 -4.05 -0.2 -0.85 -4.1

2.8 0.5 0.2 3.5 1.166667

-12.9 -2.58

-0.4522 31.13896

14-Jan-11 17-Jan-11 18-Jan-11 19-Jan-11 20-Jan-11 21-Jan-11 24-Jan-11 25-Jan-11 27-Jan-11

138.4 131.8 132.15 131 133.25 136.1 134.65 132.8 127.65

138.4 -6.6 0.35 -1.15 2.25 2.85 -1.45 -1.85 -5.15

-0.1 -6.6 0.35 -1.15 2.25 2.85 -1.45 -1.85 -5.15 -16.3 -2.71667

5.45 1.816667

-0.66871 40.07311

28-Jan-11 31-Jan-11 01-Feb-11 02-Feb-11 03-Feb-11 04-Feb-11 07-Feb-11 08-Feb-11 09-Feb-11

125.1 122.6 118.35 117.05 118.05 114.75 115.55 110.7 94.85

125.1 -2.5 -4.25 -1.3 1 -3.3 0.8 -4.85 -15.85

-2.55 -2.5 -4.55 -1.3 1 -3.3 0.8 -4.85 -15.85 -34.9 -4.98571

1.8 0.9

-0.18052 15.29013

30

10-Feb-11 11-Feb-11 14-Feb-11 15-Feb-11 16-Feb-11 17-Feb-11 18-Feb-11 21-Feb-11 22-Feb-11

96.55 97.15 97.4 101.45 99.7 99.95 93.15 93.7 95.1

96.55 0.6 0.25 4.05 -1.75 0.25 -6.8 0.55 1.4

1.7 0.6 0.25 4.05 -1.75 0.25 -6.8 0.55 1.4 8.8 1.257143

-8.55 -4.275

-0.29407 22.72025

23-Feb-11 24-Feb-11 25-Feb-11 28-Feb-11 01-Mar-11 03-Mar-11 04-Mar-11 07-Mar-11 08-Mar-11

96.5 92.55 87.55 86 90.3 93.25 93.3 90.05 90.8

96.5 -3.95 -5 -1.55 4.3 2.95 0.05 -3.25 0.75

1.4 -3.95 -5 -1.55 4.3 2.95 0.05 -3.25 0.75 9.45 1.89 -13.75 -3.4375

-0.54982 35.47555

09-Mar-11 10-Mar-11 11-Mar-11 14-Mar-11 15-Mar-11 16-Mar-11 17-Mar-11 18-Mar-11 21-Mar-11

99.3 99.75 96.3 100.5 100.95 102.95 106.55 104.5 102.9

99.3 0.45 -3.45 4.2 0.45 2 3.6 -2.05 -1.6

8.5 0.45 -3.45 4.2 0.45 2 3.6 -2.05 -1.6 -7.1 -2.36667

19.2 3.2

-1.35211 57.4848

31

22-Mar-11 23-Mar-11 24-Mar-11 25-Mar-11 28-Mar-11 29-Mar-11 30-Mar-11

103.5 104.65 104.7 106.8 105.2 109.6 109.9

103.5 1.15 0.05 2.1 -1.6 4.4 0.3

0.6 1.15 0.05 2.1 -1.6 4.4 0.3 8.6 1.433333

-1.6 -1.6

-0.89583 47.25182

Inference The broad rule is, if the RSI crosses seventy three may be downturn and it is time to sell. If the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the scrip. If the share price value of reliance communication is in the position of down trend, it gives a clear signal of buy. The term overbought describes the price level at which momentum can no longer be maintained and the price has to go down.

Table 4.1.3 Calculation Of Day RSI For IDEA

32

DATE
03-Jan-11 04-Jan-11 05-Jan-11 06-Jan-11 07-Jan-11 10-Jan-11 11-Jan-11 12-Jan-11 13-Jan-11

PRICE
70.7 69.5 69.45 69.6 67.3 66.3 66.5 67.95 67.3

VALUE -1.2 -0.05 0.15 -2.3 -1 0.2 1.45 -0.65

GAIN

LOSS -1.2 -0.05

0.15 -2.3 -1 0.2 1.45 1.8 0.6 -0.65 -5.2 -1.04

Inference
-0.57692 36.5844 4

The broad rule is, if the RSI crosses seventy three may be downturn and it is time to sell. If the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the scrip. If the share price value of idea is

14-Jan-11 17-Jan-11 18-Jan-11 19-Jan-11 20-Jan-11 21-Jan-11 24-Jan-11 25-Jan-11 27-Jan-11

67.7 69.15 68.85 68.85 68.8 68.6 69.3 71.55 70.75

67.7 1.45 -0.3 0 -0.05 -0.2 0.7 2.25 -0.8

0.4 1.45 -0.3 0 -0.05 -0.2 0.7 2.25 4.8 0.96 -0.8 -1.35 -0.3375

in the position of uptrend to down trend, it gives a clear signal of buy. The term overbought describes the price level at which momentum can no longer be maintained and the
-2.84444 73.9854 3

price has to go down.

28-Jan-11 31-Jan-11 01-Feb-11 02-Feb-11 03-Feb-11 04-Feb-11 07-Feb-11 08-Feb-11 09-Feb-11

70.15 69.6 66.45 68.75 71.3 69.8 68.8 68.4 66.3

70.15 -0.55 -3.15 2.3 2.55 -1.5 -1 -0.4 -2.1

-0.6 -0.55 -3.15 2.3 2.55 -1.5 -1 -0.4 -2.1 -9.3 -1.32857

4.85 2.425

-1.82527 64.6051 5

10-Feb-11 11-Feb-11 14-Feb-11

64.85 63.5 63.35

64.85 -1.35 -0.15

-1.45 -1.35 -0.15

33

4.2 CORRELATION ANALYSIS METHOD

TABLE 4.2.1CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK RETURN(SBI)AND

MARKET RETURN(NSE)

Descriptive Statistics Mean Nse Sbi 5568.5902 2641.9820 Std. Deviation 210.04083 80.33271 N 61 61

Correlations nse Pearson Correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N Nse Sbi Nse Sbi Nse Sbi 1.000 .297 . .010 61 61 Sbi .297 1.000 .010 . 61 61

34

INTERPRETATION: Since the value of R is less than +0.5, it is concluded that there exists a positive relationship between NSE and SBI . Since r is below +0.5 for an increase in stock return also. But the increase is not proportionate, it will be less than proportionate. It shows the stock is moving slower than market movement.
TABLE 4.2.2 CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK RETURN(PNB)AND MARKET RETURN(NSE)

Descriptive Statistics Mean Nse Pnb 5568.5902 1104.8607 Std. Deviation 210.04083 52.96681 N 61 61

35

Correlations Nse Pearson Correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N Nse Pnb Nse Pnb Nse Pnb 1.000 .927 . .000 61 61 Pnb .927 1.000 .000 . 61 61

Coefficientsa Model Standar dized Unstandardized Coeffici Coefficients ents B 1 Std. Error Beta t Sig. 95.0% Confidence Interval for B Lower Bound Upper Bound

Correlations Zero- Parti order al Part

(Const 1504.9 213.49 ant) 77 7 pnb 3.678 .193 .927

7.049 .000 19.05 .000 5

1077.76 1932.18 9 4 3.292 4.064 .927 .927 .927

a. Dependent Variable: nse

36

INTERPRETATION: Since the value of R is 1, it is concluded that there exists a positive relationship between NSE and PNB. Since r is positive it means that as both value are same (often called an equal correlation) The result shows that the PNB moves in tandem with the market.
TABLE 4.2.3 CALCULATION OF CORRELATION BETWEEN STOCK RETURN(ICICIE)AND MARKET RETURN(NSE)

Descriptive Statistics Mean Nse icici_bank Std. Deviation N 61 61

5568.5902 210.04083 1027.5705 38.76580

Correlations nse Pearson Correlation Sig. (1-tailed) N Nse icici_bank Nse icici_bank Nse icici_bank 1.000 .771 . .000 61 61 icici_bank .771 1.000 .000 . 61 61

37

Model Summary Model R d1 i m e n s i o n 0 .771a Adjusted R Square Square .595 .588 R Std. Error of the Estimate 134.81971

ANOVAb Model 1 Sum Squares Residual Total of df Mean Square F 1574624.292 86.630 18176.353 Sig. .000a

Regression 1574624.292 1 1072404.823 59 2647029.114 60

a. Predictors: (Constant), icici_bank b. Dependent Variable: nse

38

Coefficientsa Model Unstandardized Coefficients B 1 Std. Error Standard ized Coefficie nts Beta t Sig.

95.0% Confidence Interval for B Correlations Lower Bound Upper Bound Zeroorder Partia l Part

(Const 1274.45 461.683 ant) 5 icici_b 4.179 ank .449 .771

2.760 .008 9.308 .000

350.629 2198.28 2 3.281 5.077 .771 .771 .771

a. Dependent Variable: nse

INTERPRETATION: Since the value of R is +0.5, it is concluded that there exists a positive relationship between NSE and ICICI . Since r is +0.5 for an increase in stock return also.But the increase is not proportionate,it will be less than proportionate. It shows the stock is moving slower than market movement. 4.3. RATE OF CHANGE Rate of change indicator or the ROC measures the rate of change between the current price and the price n number of days in the past. ROC helps to find out the overbought and oversold positions in a scrip. It is also useful in identifying the trend reversal. Closing prices are used to calculate the ROC. Daily closing prices are used for the daily ROC and weekly closing prices for weekly ROC. ROC = ( (Today's close - Close n periods ago) / (Close n periods ago) ) * 100

39

Chart no: 4.1.1 showing Simple Moving Average Curve of DLF from (1-1-2011 to 30-3-2011)

Inference The chart of DLF shows that a large positive divergence formed in jan-11 and the ROC moved into negative territory just before the large decline. While this was a superb buy signal changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be used in down trend with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum based indicators.

40

Chart no:4.1.2 showing Simple Moving Average Curve of RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE from (1-1-2011 to 30-3-2011)

Inference The chart of Reliance Infrastructure shows that a large positive divergence formed in jan-11 and the ROC moved into negative territory just before the large decline. While this was a superb buy signal changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be used in down trend with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum based indicators.

41

Chart no:4.1.3 showing Simple Moving Average Curve of GMR INFRASTRUCTURE from (1-1-2011 to 30-3-2011)

Inference The chart of GMR INFRASTRUCTURE shows that a large positive divergence formed in jan-11 and the ROC moved into negative territory just before the large decline and the price level increase in the month of feb-11and it maintain its curve level. While this was a superb buy signal changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be used in down trend with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum based indicators.

42

Pictorial depiction

Chart no:4.1.4 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF

BHARTI AIRTEL (APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)

Interpretation: V FORMATION: It is seen at the end of November. It is a bullish reversal pattern. Recognition criteria 1. The curve position movement weak in November. 2. It is fall down at the beginning of November and rise in the beginning of December.

43

Chart no:4.1.5 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF

RELIANCE COMMUNICATION LTD (APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)

Interpretation: ASCENDING TRIANGLE: It is seen at the mid of June. It is a bullish pattern. Recognition criteria 1. The curve position strength in the beginning of June. 2. This trend supports the bull operators. 3. The curve recovered at shortly.

Chart no:4.1.6 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF IDEA

(APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)

44

Interpretation: V FORMATION: It is seen at the beginning of October. Recognition criteria 1. The curve position weak in the end September. 2. This trend supports the bull operators. 3. The curve is reversed in a specified period.

Chart no:4.1.7SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF

STATE BANK OF INDIA
45

(APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)

Interpretation: HEAD AND SHOULDER: It is seen at the beginning of November. Recognition criteria 1. The curve position gives support in the beginning of November till January. 2. This trend supports the bear operators. 3. The curve is not stable in a specified period.

Chart no:4.1.8 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF

46

PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK (APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)

Interpretation: HEAD AND SHOULDER: It is seen at the mid of November. It is a bearish pattern. Recognition criteria 1. The curve position weak in beginning of November. 2. This trend supports the bear operators. 3. The curve is not support the market.

47

Chart no:4.1.9 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF

ICICI BANK LTD (APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)

Interpretation: DESCENDING TRIANGLE: It is seen at the beginning of November. Recognition criteria 1. The curve position weak in the beginning of November. 2. This trend supports the bear operators. 3. The curve is not reversed in a specified period.

48

Chart no:4.1.10 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF DLF LTD

(APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)

Interpretation: DESCENDING TRIANGLE: It is seen at the beginning of January. It is a bearish pattern. Recognition criteria 1. The curve position weak in January to march. 2. This trend supports the bear operators. 3. The curve is not reversed in a specified period.

Chart no:4.1.11 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF

RELIANCE INFRASTRUTURE LTD (APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)
49

Interpretation: INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER: It is seen at the mid of july. It indicates the end of bear market and beginning of the bull market. Recognition criteria 1. The curve position slowly fall down. 2. This trend supports the bull operators. 3. It recovered the position shortly.

50

Chart no:4.1.12 SHOWING SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE CHART OF

GMR INFRASTRUTURE LTD (APRIL 2010-MARCH 2011)

Interpretation: V FORMATION It is seen at the mid of February. It is a bullish pattern. Recognition criteria 1. The curve position is slowly fall down in the February. 2. This trend supports the bull operators. 3. The curve is reversed in a specified period.

CHAPTER -5

51

5.1 FINDINGS Inference The broad rule is, if the RSI crosses seventy three may be downturn and it is time to sell. If the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the scrip.If the share price value of Airtel is in the position of up trend,it gives a clear signal of sell.the term oversold describes a security or market that has declined to an unreasonably low level.this condition is characeried by an increase in sales and excess of net declines. Inference The broad rule is, if the RSI crosses seventy three may be downturn and it is time to sell. If the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the scrip. If the share price value of reliance communication is in the position of down trend, it gives a clear signal of buy. The term overbought describes the price level at which momentum can no longer be maintained and the price has to go down. Inference The broad rule is, if the RSI crosses seventy three may be downturn and it is time to sell. If the RSI falls below thirty it is time to pick up the scrip. If the share price value of idea is in the position of uptrend to down trend, it gives a clear signal of buy. The term overbought describes the price level at which momentum can no longer be maintained and the price has to go down. INTERPRETATION: Since the value of R is less than +0.5, it is concluded that there exists a positive relationship between NSE and SBI . Since r is below +0.5 for an increase in stock return also.But the increase is not proportionate, it will be less than proportionate. It shows the stock is moving slower than market movement. INTERPRETATION: Since the value of R is 1, it is concluded that there exists a positive relationship between NSE and PNB. Since r is positive it means that as both value are same (often called an equal correlation) The result shows that the PNB moves in tandem with the market. INTERPRETATION:

52

Since the value of R is +0.5, it is concluded that there exists a positive relationship between NSE and ICICI . Since r is +0.5 for an increase in stock return also.But the increase is not proportionate, it will be less than proportionate. It shows the stock is moving slower than market movement. Inference The chart of DLF shows that a large positive divergence formed in jan-11 and the ROC moved into negative territory just before the large decline. While this was a superb buy signal changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be used in down trend with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum based indicators. Inference The chart of Reliance Infrastructure shows that a large positive divergence formed in jan-11 and the ROC moved into negative territory just before the large decline. While this was a superb buy signal changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be used in down trend with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum based indicators. Inference The chart of GMR INFRASTRUCTURE shows that a large positive divergence formed in jan-11 and the ROC moved into negative territory just before the large decline and the price level increase in the month of feb-11and it maintain its curve level. While this was a superb buy signal changed to sell signal. As with most technical indicators, ROC should be used in down trend with other aspects or technical analysis as well as other non- momentum based indicators.

SUGGESSIONS
Based on the correlation the researcher could find that the r value is equal to 1 for PNB in banking sector. Investor can go for trading in such scrips. Based on the correlation the researcher could find that roc curve of DLF is increased at the end. Investor can go for trading in such scrips. Based on the correlation the researcher could find that RSI of AIRTEL is increased at the end. Investor can go for trading in such scrips.
53

CONCLUSION
5.2 CONCLUSION

This project was mainly carried out to find out Technical performance of selected script in the share market. It tried to identify impact of technical performance over the market. It tries to pick out prime stock in Telecom,infrastructure and bank which having less risk with good return, by using few tools, obviously BMA wealth creators is one the company to analysis the shares .

Perhaps a similar study would be conducted in the other sector or other similar industry in India to sublime and substantiate the result of the study.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
BOOKS
Punithavathy Pandian - Security analysis and portfolio management Vikas

Publication Ltd-2010.

54

 V. Kevin - Security analysis and portfolio management S.Chand Publication Ltd

1995 JOURNALS Govert E. Bijwaard Maarten C.W. Janssen*Emiel Maasland, early mover advantage December 22, 2004. Damodharan .V. S.* and Rengarajan.V A Projection of Best Emerging Bank in Sultanate of Oman January 2008 Alexander van der Vooren and Floortje Alkemade,Innovation Studies Group,Utrecht University. The di_usion of infrastructure dependent technologies May 2009 WEBSITES
www.nseindia.com www.tradersedge.com www.google.com www.icharts.com www.moneycontrol.com www.stockchart.com

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56