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ln the study of epidemics geometry is used to model the actual and potential transmission of disease. There are many variables to account for in the study of epidemics, and geometry allows them to be included in the analytical models to give more accurate predictions so that disease control experts can more effectively react to threats.
theoretic approach to investigate the transmission dynamics of infectious disease. lt formulates mathematical models to describe the mechanisms of disease transmissions and dynamics of infectious agents. The mathematical models are based on population dynamics, behavior of disease transmissions, features of the infectious agents, and the connections with
other social and physiologic factors. Through quantitative and qualitative
is an important
analysis, sensitivity analysis, and numeric simulations, mathematical models can give us good understanding of how infectious diseases
spread, discover general principles governing the transmission dynamics
of the diseases, and identify more important and sensitive parameters, to
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Early in the study of epidemics Kermack and McKendrick created a basic model for studying epidemics, that continues to be the basis for many models today. ln their model the population was divided into three compartments: those susceptible (S), those infected (l), and
those removed (R) (those who have recovered or are immune). The rate of flow from one
comparlment to the next is defined by differential functions the spread of an epidemic is to have
Ro
1.
lf
Ro
>
1,
recovery rate.
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Ultimately the Kermack-McKendrick model proved to be too simple, and since their work
in the late 1920's many other mathematicians and biologists have continued to search for and
discover models that are more accurate. One such discovery is related in The Geometry of Ecological lnteractions: Simplifying Spacial Complexity where Ulf, Law, and Metz discuss how apparent wave like dispersals of disease led to 2D modeling and studying of epidemics, and how the compartmentalization of these 2D models can give realistic results for susceptibility Ievels of a population. Also, "Cauchemez and Ferguson introduced a new approach to the analysis of epidemic time series data to take account of partial observation of latency and the
temporal aggregation of observed data. They showed that homogeneous standard models can
miss key features of epidemics in large populations [4]." Ultimately, as more factors with various impacts on the rate of spread were analyzed, information geometry became the primary method
a method
to
In
other (than biology) fields including physics and economics. 'The new field of information geometry draws a lot [of] inspiration from information
processing in biological systems, from the cell to the brain,' [5]." lnformation geometry is the study of a collection of probability distributions over a vector,
!/ll
break it into small sections that behave like a Euclidean geometry (consider breaking the surface of a sphere into flat pentagons). Doing this allows researchers to account for many variables simultaneously, and then to view their model more simplistically while retaining accountability for all variables. Using information geometry Dodson extended the results of Britton and Lindenstrand to produce a more accurate model. Britton and Lindenstrand had found that Ro:
l.pLr,
where
)" is
the mean length of infectious period [4]. The goal in their model remains for Ro < 1, otherwise if Ro > 1 then the "epidemic becomes a major outbreak with
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A topological space is a set X together with a collection of open subsets T that satisfies the four conditions. 1. The empty set is in T.
2. 3. 4.
s
XisinT.
The intersection of a finite number of sets in T is also in T (or if T is the collection of closed subsets: The intersection of an arbitrary number of sets in T is also in T). The union of an arbitrary number of sets in T is also in T (or if T is the collection of closed subsets. The union of a finite number of sets in T is also in T) t8l
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the number infected increasing exponentially [4]," and although they used a single number to analyze the seriousness of the epidemic, this number is much more reliable than the original Ro
provided by Kermack & McKendrick. Dodson added the consideration of "the McKay bivariate gamma distributiona for the joint distribution of latency and infectivity, recovering the effects of
variability but allowing possible correlation [4]." This is important because by doing so, Dodson has moved the model into information geometry without loosing any of its effectiveness.
"ln modeling epidemics information geometry is able to account for more complex and subtle differences in quantities, such as rates of infection among populations, than previous approaches. lndeed, the
reason for the growing use of information geometry across biological and
medical research is that it is capable of allowing for non-uniformity in the systems under study, whether at the scale of a protein, cell, pathway or
understand how variables impact the spread of an epidemic and epidemics in general.
This is a statistical distribution combined, with a probability distribution. l've left out the equation because it's huge & messy, it can be found at the bottom of page 3 of [4].
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Bibliooraohv
[1]Amari, Shun-lchi and Nagaoka, Hiroshi. Methods of lnformation Geometry. l21Ay, Nihat; Bertschinger, Nils; Jost, Jurgen; and Olbrich, Eckehard. "Ageometric approach to
complexity." Chaos. Volume. 21, lssue. 3, (Sep 2011).037'103-1 - 037103-10. American
I
nstitute of Physics.
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[3] Dieckmann, Ulf; Law, Richard; and Metz, J.A.J. The Geometry of Ecological lnteractions: Simplifying Spatial Complexity. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001. [4] Dodson, C.T.J. "lnformation Geometry and Entropy in a Stochastic Epidemic Rate Process." <http://www. maths.manchester.ac.uk/-kd/PREPRINTS/lnfGeomlnStochRateProc.pdf>
[5] Hunter, Philip. "Biology isthe new physics." EMBO reportsVolume: 11, lssue: 5, (2010): 350-352. European Molecular Biology Organization. 23 Oct 2011 <http.//dx.doi.org/'10.1038/
embor.2010.55>. [6] Ma, Zhien and Li, Jia. Dynamical Modeling andAnalysis of Epidemics. Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Co. Ptc. Ltd., 2009. [7] Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla. "lnformation Geometry." Notebooks. (20 Feb 2011).31 Oct2011 <http://cscs. umich.ed u I -crshalizilnotebooks/info-geo. htm l>.
[8] Wolfram Math World.
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