Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM

A model that describes the relationship between risk and expected return and that is used in the pricing of risky securities.

The general idea behind CAPM is that investors need to be compensated in two ways: time value of money and risk. The time value of money is represented by the risk-free (rf) rate in the formula and compensates the investors for placing money in any investment over a period of time. The other half of the formula represents risk and calculates the amount of compensation the investor needs for taking on additional risk. This is calculated by taking a risk measure (beta) that compares the returns of the asset to the market over a period of time and to the market premium (Rm-rf). The CAPM says that the expected return of a security or a portfolio equals the rate on a risk-free security plus a risk premium. If this expected return does not meet or beat the required return, then the investment should not be undertaken. The security market line plots the results of the CAPM for all different risks (betas). In finance, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is used to determine a theoretically appropriate required rate of return of an asset, if that asset is to be added to an already well-diversified portfolio, given that asset's non-diversifiable risk. The model takes into account the asset's sensitivity to nondiversifiable risk (also known as systematic risk or market risk), often represented by the quantity beta () in the financial industry, as well as the expected return of the market and the expected return of a theoretical risk-free asset. The model was introduced by Jack Treynor (1961, 1962), William Sharpe (1964), John Lintner(1965) and Jan Mossin (1966) independently, building on the earlier work of Harry Markowitz on diversification and modern portfolio theory. Sharpe, Markowitz and Merton Miller jointly received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for this contribution to the field of financial economics. The CAPM is a model for pricing an individual security or a portfolio. For individual securities, we make use of the security market line (SML) and its relation to expected return and systematic risk (beta) to show how the market must price individual securities in relation to their security risk class. The SML enables us to calculate the reward-to-risk ratio for any security in relation to that of the overall market. Therefore, when the expected rate of return for any security is deflated by its beta coefficient, the rewardto-risk ratio for any individual security in the market is equal to the market reward-to-risk ratio, thus:

The market reward-to-risk ratio is effectively the market risk premium and by rearranging the above equation and solving for E(Ri), we obtain the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).

where:

is the expected return on the capital asset is the risk-free rate of interest such as interest arising from government bonds (the beta) is the sensitivity of the expected excess asset returns to the expected excess

market returns, or also

is the expected return of the market is sometimes known as the market premium (the difference between the expected market rate of return and the risk-free rate of return). is also known as the risk premium

Restated, in terms of risk premium, we find that:

which states that the individual risk premium equals the market premium times .

Security market line The SML essentially graphs the results from the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) formula. The x-axis represents the risk (beta), and the y-axis represents the expected return. The market risk premium is determined from the slope of the SML. The relationship between and required return is plotted on the securities market line (SML) which shows expected return as a function of . The intercept is the nominal risk-free rate available for the market, while the slope is the market premium, E(Rm) Rf. The securities market line can be regarded as representing a single-factor model of the asset price, where Beta is exposure to changes in value of the Market. The equation of the SML is thus:

It is a useful tool in determining if an asset being considered for a portfolio offers a reasonable expected return for risk. Individual securities are plotted on the SML graph. If the security's expected return versus risk is plotted above the SML, it is undervalued since the investor can expect a greater return for the inherent risk. And a security plotted below the SML is overvalued since the investor would be accepting less return for the amount of risk assumed.

Asset pricing Once the expected/required rate of return, E(Ri), is calculated using CAPM, we can compare this required rate of return to the asset's estimated rate of return over a specific investment horizon to determine whether it would be an appropriate investment. To make this comparison, you need an independent estimate of the return outlook for the security based on either fundamental or technical analysis techniques, including P/E, etc. Assuming that the CAPM is correct, an asset is correctly priced when its estimated price is the same as the present value of future cash flows of the asset, discounted at the rate suggested by CAPM. If the observed price is higher than the CAPM valuation, then the asset is undervalued (and overvalued when the estimated price is below the CAPM valuation).[2] When the asset does not lie on the SML, this could also suggest mis-pricing. Since the expected return of the asset at time t is , a higher expected return than what CAPM suggests indicates that Pt is too low (the asset is currently undervalued), assuming that at time t + 1 the asset returns to the CAPM suggested price.[3] The asset price P0 using CAPM, sometimes called the certainty equivalent pricing formula, is a linear relationship given by

where PT is the payoff of the asset or portfolio.

Arbitrage pricing theory

In finance, arbitrage pricing theory (APT) is a general theory of asset pricing that holds that the expected return of a financial asset can be modeled as a linear function of various macro-economic factors or theoretical market indices, where sensitivity to changes in each factor is represented by a factorspecific beta coefficient. The model-derived rate of return will then be used to price the asset correctly the asset price should equal the expected end of period price discounted at the rate implied by the model. If the price diverges, arbitrage should bring it back into line. The theory was proposed by the economist Stephen Ross in 1976. The APT model Risky asset returns are said to follow a factor structure if they can be expressed as:

where

aj is a constant for asset j Fk is a systematic factor bjk is the sensitivity of the jth asset to factor k, also called factor loading, and is the risky asset's idiosyncratic random shock with mean zero.

Idiosyncratic shocks are assumed to be uncorrelated across assets and uncorrelated with the factors. The APT states that if asset returns follow a factor structure then the following relation exists between expected returns and the factor sensitivities:

where

RPk is the risk premium of the factor, rf is the risk-free rate, That is, the expected return of an asset j is a linear function of the assets sensitivities to the n factors.

What is hedging? Hedging is the process of managing the risk of price changes in physical material by offsetting that risk in the futures market. Hedging can vary in complexity from a relatively simple activity, through to a highly complex strategies, including the use of options. The ability to hedge means that industry can decide on the amount of risk it is prepared to accept. It may wish to eliminate the risk entirely and can generally do so quickly and easily using the LME. Managing price risk means achieving greater control of either the cost of inputs, or revenues from sales, or both; planning for the future based on assured costs and revenues; and eliminating concerns that a sharply adverse move in the price of material could turn an otherwise flourishing and efficient business into a loss maker. Hedging by trade and industry is the opposite of speculation and is undertaken in order to eliminate an existing physical price risk, by taking a compensating position in the futures market. Speculators come to the futures market with no initial risk. They assume risk by taking futures positions. Hedgers reduce or eliminate the chance of further losses or profits, while the speculators risk losses in order to make profits. Before starting a hedging programme it is essential to assess the risk due to exposure to the price of physical material. Once the hedger has an understanding of the tools available at the LME, it is relatively easy to select the appropriate action to manage this risk. It is important that this action is properly managed at all times and that the appropriate controls and approval procedures are in place. Hedging means reducing or controlling risk. This is done by taking a position in the futures market that is opposite to the one in the physical market with the objective of reducing or limiting risks associated with price changes. Hedging is a two-step process. A gain or loss in the cash position due to changes in price levels will be countered by changes in the value of a futures position. For instance, a wheat farmer can sell wheat futures to protect the value of his crop prior to harvest. If there is a fall in price, the loss in the cash market position will be countered by a gain in futures position. How hedging is done In this type of transaction, the hedger tries to fix the price at a certain level with the objective of ensuring certainty in the cost of production or revenue of sale. The futures market also has substantial participation by speculators who take positions based on the price movement and bet upon it. Also, there are arbitrageurs who use this market to pocket profits whenever there are inefficiencies in the prices. However, they ensure that the prices of spot and futures remain correlated.