By Andy Hines
Global Trends in Culture,
Infrastructure, and Values
Electrification and broadband communications are contributing to profound
shifts in global values and cultures.
T
he futurists and analysts at Social
Technologies have spent years
analyzing global consumer
trends for our clients. We grouped
these trends into five categories: de-
mography, rising wealth, culture, in-
frastructure, and values. In the last
issue of THE FUTURIST, we de-
scribed global trends related to rising
global wealth and changing demo-
graphics. Now we turn to trends in
culture, public infrastructure, and
values that will be shaping your
world in the years to come.
Cultural Trends
Just a decade or so ago, sociolo-
gists and best-selling authors such as
Benjamin Barber, author of Jihad vs.
McWorld: How Globalism and Tribalism
Are Reshaping the World (Ballantine
1996), were concerned about a
homogenization of global culture
EDGE69 / ISTOCKPHOTO.COM
dominated by the United States and
its powerful entertainment industry.
It was feared that Hollywood and
Baywatch were taking over the global
culture.
It turns out that local cultures are
more robust than was thought. Peo-
ple are quite capable of taking the as-
pects of global culture they like, ig-
noring the rest, and holding tight to
what they love about their native
cultures. The following cluster of

¼  7ORLD &UTURE 3OCIETY s  7OODMONT !VENUE 3UITE  "ETHESDA -$  53! s !LL RIGHTS RESERVED

18 THE FUTURIST September-October 2008 www.wfs.org


Consumer Trends in Three
Different Worlds, Part 2
In my previous article for THE
FUTURIST, I discussed 10 of the
most important trends changing
the face of business in three differ-
ent “worlds.” Throughout the analy-
sis, we referred to World 1 (W1),
World 2 (W2), and World 3 (W3) as
our three “worlds” based on an in-
dex that rates a country’s economic
and social development and techno-
logical capability and groups them
fewer than a billion people in the afflu-
ent countries.
W2 is the large segment of 3 to
4 billion in the nations or regions
that are relatively balanced in
terms of needs and resources, such
as fast-growing India and China and
slower-growing Latin America and
eastern Europe.
W3 consists of the 1 to 2 billion
people who are in dire straits,
nomic crisis could arise. In China, for
instance, allocating too much agri-
cultural activity to the water-scarce
north has already resulted in water
shortages in that region.
Third, rising energy costs may end
up favoring more diversity at the lo-
cal level, rather than global central-
ization and distribution schemes.
Trend 2: Media spread. While me-
dia is spreading rapidly, there is still
plenty of room for expansion. Just
19% of the global population is on
the Internet, and half the world’s
population has mobile phones. Obvi-
ously, penetration rates are much
higher in W1 than W2 and W3. Even
so, few places on the planet still lack
access. Solar-powered wireless set-
ups mean that even remote areas of
THE!MAZONBASINCANLINKINTOTHE
global communications grid.
Some repressive governments such
among peers.
The United States, western
Europe, Japan, Korea, and Australia
were counted in W1, which consists of
trends explores how some of this will
shake out in the coming decades.
Trend 1: Cultural multipolarity .
New centers of cultural excellence
are arising across the globe. For in-
stance, the world’s largest film in-
dustry is in India. Nokia, in Finland,
has emerged as a leader in mobile
DEVICEDESIGN!MAPOFCOMMUNICA-
tions flows a decade or two ago
would have characterized informa-
tion flows with one-way arrows from
W1 to W2 to W3 — with the United
3TATESASTHEDOMINANTTRANSMITTER!
map today, and into the future, will
more likely be characterized by
many two-way arrows, as W1 in-
including most of Africa,
Bangladesh, and Haiti.
— Andy Hines
vice, is it likely that other regions (or
nations) will readily adapt and move
to other products and services? Some
nations are already experimenting
with this concept on a microscale. Ja-
pan’s Teletopia project seeks to link
MUNICIPALITIESTOGETHERINANET-
work, with each city specializing in
information technology applications.
Business implications: While this
idea of a global division of labor is
compelling from an efficiency point
of view, there are challenges to this
approach. First, it requires a high de-
gree of trust that dominant centers of
excellence will play fair. It would re-
quire appropriate checks and bal-
AS.ORTH+OREA-YANMAR"URMA 
and to some extent China have been
able to limit access to media, but
such countries are likely fighting a
losing battle in the long run. Human
ingenuity and the desire for unfet-
tered access to information are strong
allies.
Business implications: Perhaps the
more interesting longer-term ques-
tion is this: How do we get around
THE  DEMANDS ON ONES
time? Perhaps communication-free
zones, or even blocks of time, may
emerge. Organizations may say that
Sundays are off-limits except from
TOPM
There may also be money to be
made actually selling freedom from
communications. Remember the old
television show Fantasy Island? Per-
haps we’ll see a new Privacy Island.
Whereas Internet access used to be a
perk, inaccessibility could be a future
perk.
The concept is not entirely new.
creasingly recognizes the value of
ideas from across the globe.
This trend raises an interesting is-
sue about the emergence of cultural
centers of excellence and their poten-
tial influence on the global division
OF LABOR!S NATIONS INTEGRATE ECO-
nomically and culturally, our global
civilization may become more so-
phisticated about this division of la-
bor. If a certain region provides the
best of a particular product or ser-
ances — and national security will be
a concern.
Second, there is the danger of too
much efficiency creating fragile sys-
tems that lack resiliency (see Barry
C. Lynn’s excellent treatment in End
of the Line: The Rise and Coming Fall of
the Global Corporation). For example,
if all production is centered in a cer-
tain area, and a natural disaster, or
even an unforeseen natural phenom-
enon, hits that area, a global eco-
THE FUTURIST
&RENCHSITUATIONIST'UY$EBORDAU-
thor of Society of the Spectacle, argued
AS EARLY AS THE S THAT MODERN
mass media had a toxic effect on
PEOPLE $EBORD CALLED FOR PUBLIC
spaces to be set aside as mass-media-
free zones, places where people
could experience “a moment of life,”
without the intrusion of any sort of
media or any commercial message.
The situationists in essence were the
first group to perceive a market for
September-October 2008 www.wfs.org 19
QUIETBUTBEINGUNAPOLOGETIC-ARX-
ists, they called that market by a dif-
ferent name.
Today, “writer’s rooms” across the
country in cities like New York, Chi-
cago, and Boston do a brisk business
in selling little more than a quiet
SPACETOSITANDCONCENTRATE!NDPRI-
vate spas market themselves not
only as spa-service providers, but as
places cut off from the rest of the
world.
Of course, this may ultimately
prove to be a generational issue, as
the emerging Gen Y is not only more
comfortable with around-the-clock
connectivity, but demands it.
Trend 3: Cultural flow. !DD CUL- LUISMMOLINA / ISTOCKPHOTO.COM

tural multipolarity to media spread,

and the result is cultural flow. In the
coming years, expect to see new
ideas, including products and ser-
vices, coming from practically every
CORNEROFTHEPLANET!NEARLYINDICA-
tor may be the growing numbers of
teens and young adults who think of
themselves as global or planetary cit-
izens. With so many communications
options open to Gen Y, youths of to-
day are making online friends
around the world.
-Y COLLEAGUES AND ) DISCOVERED extremely dense traffic situations,
The network is spreading — and not just in W1, but everywhere. Global broadband sub-
scribers totaled 235 million by December 2007, an increase of 17.5% from 200 million
subscribers in December 2006.
from Southampton in the United this support. Several organizations
Kingdom, which is experimenting working together will be better able
with the adoption of the three-wheel to tackle these issues systematically.
“tuk-tuks” commonly seen in Trend 4: Electrification. Global ac-
crowded megacities in W2 and W3. cess to electricity has risen by a little
Traffic planners noted how effective more than 10% annually, up from
these vehicles were for navigating in INTOIN/RGANI-
zations like the International Energy
this to be true when we conducted a and they figured an adapted version !GENCYINITS7ORLD%NERGY/UTLOOK
STUDYFOR-46ABOUTTHEh&UTUREOF would be a neat solution to dense forecast that electrification will reach
(APPINESSv WITH THE !SSOCIATED traffic in their W1 city. 83% by 2030 and view it as a funda-
0RESS!0 7ECAMEACROSSANINTER- This suggests that organizations mental piece of infrastructure be-
esting quote from one of the five will benefit from having eyes and cause it opens up access to a wide
DOZEN
TO
YEAR
OLDSWEINTER- ears trained to remote corners across range of products and services. It is a
viewed, who said: “I’ve never met the globe in order to stay on the lead- key to raising living standards, and
my best friend.” That is, the young ing edge of creative and innovative emerging-market governments are
Gen Yer had never met face-to-face ideas. But “eyes and ears” doesn’t seeking to bring electricity to rural
with the person he has been commu- necessarily mean a physical pres- communities to stimulate develop-
nicating with for years by e-mail. ence; rather, it means partnerships ment.
!DDITIONALLYASURVEYCONDUCTEDBY and arrangements with those who That said, some regions continue
!0OFYOUTHSFOUNDTHATOF are “on the ground” at the poles of
Gen Yers surveyed made no distinc-
3AHARAN!FRICAS RATE
tion between online friends and the
ONESTHEYSAWEVERYDAY!LTHOUGH
they reported that they do not see
technology as a replacement for face-
to-face contact, they certainly see the
Internet as means to access a greater
range of friends and ideas. We are
to have dismally low rates of electri-
cultural excellence. FICATION 3UB
was just 23% in 2000, and some
countries do even worse — such as
Infrastructure Trends
5GANDAATAWOEFUL
The primary challenge in W1 is to Business implications: Electrification
maintain and repair infrastructures. brings about significant changes to
This is often a politically unpopular daily life, making it easier for people
or unsexy topic, so it suffers from ne- to cook, do chores, work after dark,
confident that, as these youth move GLECT)NTHE!MERICAN3OCIETY and access information and “enter-
into the workforce, they will acceler- of Civil Engineers estimated that the tainment.” It typically increases the
ate the rate of cultural flow through cost of repairing U.S. infrastructure pace of daily life. It is also a pre-
having been immersed in different would equal $1.6 trillion over the cursor to bringing nations into a con-
cultures from a much younger age. next five years. In W2 and W3, how- sumer economy.
Business implications: The flows ever, the primary challenge is build- Trend 5: Networked world. To state
will not just be from W1 to W2 and ING INFRASTRUCTURE -ANY BUSINESS the obvious, the network is spread-
7!NINTERESTINGEXAMPLECOMES ventures stumble due to the lack of ing — and not just in W1, but every-

20 THE FUTURIST September-October 2008 www.wfs.org

where. Global broadband subscrib- travel “experiences” instead of sim-
ERSTOTALEDMILLIONBY$ECEMBER ply more material goods. The World
 AN INCREASE OF  FROM  4OURISM/RGANIZATIONCOUNTED
MILLIONSUBSCRIBERSIN$ECEMBER million tourist excursions during Values in the
according to the Organisation for
%CONOMIC#O
/PERATIONAND$EVEL-
opment.
Interestingly, some small nations
have made strategic choices to be
leaders in “connecting up,” surpass-
ing some bigger and richer nations.
For instance, with broadband Inter-
net penetration approaching 80%,
you would think that South Korea
would be the most-wired nation on
earth. Certainly it markets itself as
GENERATINGBILLIONFORTHE
GLOBALECONOMYTHATYEAR4HATS
million more tourist excursions than
Three Worlds
IN
W2 is the scene of the fastest The three sets of values identified by
change, as rapid economic develop-
ment is bringing advanced mobility political scientist Ronald Inglehart associ-
options — such as subways, personal ate well with Social Technologies’ Three
cars, and air travel — within reach
for more people. In several regions, Worlds concept:
plans are in place to make personal W3 emphasizes traditional values fo-
transportation more affordable. For
such. But according to some official EXAMPLE )NDIAS 4ATA -OTORS RE- cused on survival needs, including respect
STATISTICS$ENMARKTHE.ETHERLANDS cently introduced a “people’s car” for authority, religious faith, national pride,
and Switzerland have already sur-
passed South Korea. Singapore has
become a global trading and com-
munications hub. The United States,
by some measures, is not even in the
top 10 in terms of per capita broad-
band penetration.
FORJUSTA)NTERESTINGLYTHEY
have made a play at the premium obedience, work ethic, large families with
end as well, making a bid to acquire
Jaguar and Land Rover from Ford.
strong family ties, a clear sense of good
Increased mobility accelerates the and evil, and respect for parents.
changes in daily life, too, and tends
to integrate people into the consumer
W2 emphasizes modern values focused
The next level of connection is
making “dumb” devices smart,
through either chips, tags, or im-
plants. The falling cost of IT, the
growth of tagging approaches such
SOCIETY!T ITS MOST BASIC LEVEL IN-
creased mobility allows consumers
to expand the boundaries of their
lives. They gain access to greater op-
tions for shopping, employment, and
on achievement, including high trust in sci-
ence and technology; faith in the state
(bureaucratization); rejection of out-
AS2&)$ANDTHESPREADOFSENSORS social interaction.
and wireless capability are enabling
greater connectivity among informa-
tion devices. In turn, this generates
new connections between people
and objects, increasing information
flows.
Business implications:!NINTEREST-
ing experiment might be to think of
the questions you would want to ask
a device — because, eventually, it will
be capable of answering. Forward-
thinking ideas like this will be key
strategies for IT and businesses in
the years to come. For instance, the
firm Powerset is working on a “con-
versational search engine” they hope
to bring to market in the next decade,
if Google doesn’t beat them to it.
Trend 6. Rising mobility. When it
comes to mobility, more people are
upgrading, moving farther and faster
than before. This trend is at work in
all three Worlds, and per capita pas-
senger-kilometers are increasing. In
W1, high-speed mobility is on the
rise, though congestion challenges
remain a big issue. Tourism is an in-
creasingly important component of
life in W1, with more and more peo-
ple becoming inclined to collect
Better transportation enables
workers to travel farther to reach a
workplace. But more time spent trav-
eling reduces time available for
chores at home, which in turn drives
up demand for time-saving house-
hold appliances. Similarly, shopping
patterns will be affected, for less time
means less-frequent shopping trips,
but larger volumes of purchases. Just
as we’ve seen in W1, items bought in
bulk at a modern hypermarket will
become an option.
Business implications:!NOTHERIM-
portant consequence of increased
personal mobility will be impacts on
THEENVIRONMENT6EHICLESCONTRIBUTE
to pollution, so if W2 and W3 adopt
the car ownership patterns of W1,
without dramatic advances in pollu-
tion control, the environmental con-
sequences will be enormous not only
for the offending nations, but for the
planet as a whole.
Values Trends
6ALUESARETHEBELIEFSTHATPEOPLE
have about what is right and wrong
and what is most important in life.
THE FUTURIST
groups; appreciation of money, hard work,
and determination; and a belief that
women need children and children need
both parents.
W1 emphasizes postmodern values fo-
cused on self-expression, including an em-
phasis on individual responsibility and de-
cision making, imagination, tolerance, life
balance and satisfaction, ecology, leisure,
free choice, and good health.
— Andy Hines
In turn, these beliefs guide their be-
HAVIORANDACTIONS6ALUESALSOSERVE
as long-term drivers of change, for
one’s present attitudes and behaviors
are always rooted in the values and
choices of the past. Thus, to under-
stand attitudes and behaviors of the
future, the values of the present are a
great place to start.
The good news on the values front
is the yeoman’s work of Ronald
September-October 2008 www.wfs.org 21
 JOACHIM ANGELTUN / ISTOCKPHOTO.COM
Inglehart of the University ditional values is en-
OF -ICHIGAN AND HIS COL- abling women to
leagues with the World shed their traditional
6ALUES3URVEY4HEYBEGAN roles. Today, women
tracking values changes in in W2 are increas-
MORETHANCOUNTRIESIN ingly able to enter the
THE S AND NOW IN- paid workforce. In
clude more than 100 na- fact, microlending
tions in the survey they agencies have found
publish about every five that the most success-
years. ful approach to stim-
Inglehart has found ulating grassroots
that, as nations grow eco- economic develop-
nomically, existence be- ment is to loan money
comes more secure and to women.
people have the freedom In World 1, women
to focus on goals that were still bump into the
previously given a lower glass ceiling in many
priority. These long-term large organizations.
values shifts underpin the Cultural flow. A survey conducted by AP of 1,280 youths found that 25% of !S A RESULT WOMEN
values trends below. Gen Yers made no distinction between online friends and the ones they in the United States,
Trend 7. Ethical con- saw every day. Although they reported that they do not see technology as led by immigrant
a replacement for face-to-face contact, they certainly see the Internet as
sumption. This trend fo- women, are starting
means to access a greater range of friends and ideas across the globe.
cuses on expressing one’s the majority of small
values through the goods BUSINESSES-ANYSO-
and services purchased. In ciologists contend
other words, it’s about voting with s#ORPORATEPHILANTHROPY!NEM- that feminine values generally center
dollars. phasis on charities or causes that on relationships and trust; these val-
-YRIADPRODUCTSANDSERVICESNOW qualify as ethical. ues tend to be better adapted to the
target this trend: We see things la- s0OLITICS4HISWILLBEREFLECTEDIN network model prevalent in knowl-
beled fair trade, free range, blood- an organization’s support for ethi- edge economy organizations than
less, guilt-free, organic, natural, CALLYMINDEDCANDIDATES$ONATIONS are masculine values, which, some
cruelty-free, socially responsible, car- to particular parties may also receive sociologists argue, tend to be better
bon-neutral, green, and grass-fed, scrutiny, thanks to sites like open- suited to the hierarchies that domi-
AMONGOTHERS!CCORDINGTOONEESTI- source.org. nated the industrial era.
MATEABOUTOF53CONSUMERS s!DVERTISING7HEREANDHOWA Business implications: Organizations
today fit the profile of an ethical con- corporation advertises; whether it need to recognize women’s growing
SUMER!NOTHER ESTIMATE INDICATES targets kids, and if so, how young? power as a factor in business and
two-thirds of U.S. consumers have $OES IT EXPLICITLY OR IMPLICITLY EN- market planning. In more and more
boycotted a major goods producer dorse politically charged issues, such countries, women are not only mak-
ON SOME ETHICAL GROUND !NOTHER as gay marriage? ing more of the buying decisions, but
manifestation of this trend in the Business implications:!DDINGFUR- they are also increasingly running
past decade has been an explosion of ther ammunition to this trend will be the businesses that are providing the
socially conscious mutual funds. an array of new tools to help deter- products and services.
-OVINGFORWARDAWIDEARRAYOF mine an organization’s ethical pro- Trend 9. Social freedom. Social
new ethical criteria could emerge in file. These may include Web sites freedom is growing around the
the following areas. Expect to see dif- that allow consumers to create their world. When Ronald Inglehart,
ferent groups calling for lots of dif- own ethical profile, and then provide LEADEROFTHE7ORLD6ALUES3URVEY
ferent things, including: them with appropriate product and was asked to suggest where he saw
s#ORPORATEHIRINGPRACTICES$I- service recommendations. This could the omega point of values trends, he
versity in executive offices, hiring extend to other devices — such as cell suggested it is a move toward greater
only documented legals, no sweat- PHONES2&)$TAGSORBARCODEREAD- choice and autonomy.
shops, limited outsourcing of jobs. ers — that allow consumers to make Postmodern values, which are in-
s2$.OANIMALTESTINGNOANI- on-the-spot product comparisons creasingly prevalent in W1, focus on
mal cruelty, no human testing, possi- based on ethics. This could also ex- the importance of individual choices,
bly no stem-cell testing. tend to ethical search engines tilted identity construction, and self-
s0RODUCT HISTORY /NLY ORGANIC to favor the user ’s personalized expression. People tend to feel disil-
minimal carbon footprint, largely lo- ethics. lusioned with accumulating more
cal, no sweatshop labor, component Trend 8. Women’s power. This material goods as a route to happi-
or ingredient tracing, no toxic chemi- trend is perhaps most powerful in ness — the approach characteristic of
cals. World 2, where the relaxation of tra- modernizing nations. Instead, they

22 THE FUTURIST September-October 2008 www.wfs.org

tend to emphasize inner satisfaction EFFECTINhGLASSHOUSESv$ATAABOUT
and the spiritual dimension, which each individual is everywhere, and
in essence is a quest to figure out secrets are very difficult to keep,
“what does it all mean?” Thus, we whether from databases, tracking de-
see the increasing popularity of med-
ITATIONANDTRIPSTOTHEDAYSPA!N
interesting indicator here is the ex-
plosion of research into happiness.
Consumers are trying to figure out
what really makes them happy.
VICES OR SURVEILLANCE!T THE SAME
time, the explosion of social network-
ING7EBSITESSUCHAS-Y3PACEAND
Facebook has contributed to a greater
sharing of personal information.
Just as people are becoming more
!TTHESAMETIMEMANYCONSUM-
ers complain about too many choices,
AND WHO CAN BLAME THEM ! TRIP
down the cold-medicine aisle can be
an overwhelming experience. The
good news is the potential for
“smart” tools to help us deal with
this choice overload. While it is sen-
sible to be skeptical of technological
fixes (similar promises have been
made before) it is also becoming in-
creasingly possible to automate rou-
tine choices and shift some of the de-
cision-making burden to information
and software devices and programs.
Business implications: Imagine a fu-
ture in which you could create a pro-
file of preferences that product and
service providers could then ac-
cess — with your permission, of
course — and thus avoid the need to
constantly provide the same infor-
mation. The profiles could contain
increasingly more personal informa-
tion, say five levels or tiers, and ac-
cess would be granted to certain lev-
els according to the degree of trust or
strength of the relationship. Of
course, this profile would likely be
embodied in a software avatar.
Trend 10. Transparency. Consum-
ers and businesses today all live, in
Data about each individual is everywhere, and secrets are very difficult to keep, whether
from databases, tracking devices, or surveillance. Thanks to the Internet, the world is be-
coming a “glass house,” where every secret is visible to everyone else.
transparent, exposing more of them-
selves, they’re putting pressure on
organizations to do the same. For
businesses, this increasingly means
that they must assume that they are
being watched and should act ac-
cordingly. We suggest to our clients
that they take the “YouTube test”
when considering courses of ac-
tion — that is, if someone video-
recorded their activity, and it showed
up on YouTube the next day with po-
tentially millions of viewers, would
they still pursue the action?
Business implications: This trend
suggests that the barriers between
“us and them” will recede. It also
portends a greater partnership role
WITH STAKEHOLDERS!SSUME THAT IF
they are going to find out anyway,
they should be included from the
beginning.
Using Trends
This list of consumer trends is in-
tended to provide a primer on the
global trends in play today and how
they might develop and evolve into
the next decade. You can apply this
knowledge to uncover new opportu-
nities; detect threats; craft strategy;
EVA SERRABASSA / ISTOCKPHOTO.COM
THE FUTURIST
MARCO VOLPI / ISTOCKPHOTO.COM
Myriad products and services labeled fair
trade, free range, bloodless, guilt-free,
organic, natural, cruelty-free, socially re-
sponsible, carbon-neutral, green, and
grass-fed, among others target the rising
trend in ethical consumption.
guide policy; explore new markets,
products, and services; and under-
stand emerging customer needs.
This is only a starting point for
analysis; the next question is the im-
plications for the nation, organiza-
tion, or individual. Having access to
this kind of content is important, for
understanding established trends
such as these provides us with a
foundation for thinking in a produc-
tive way about the future. The next
step is to apply the knowledge. Q
About the Author
Andy Hines is the director of
Custom Projects at Social
Technologies, 1776 Massa-
chusetts Avenue, N.W.,
Suite 815, Washington,
D.C. 20036. Web site
www.socialtechnologies.com.
He co-founded and is currently chair of the
Association of Professional Futurists.
Thinking About the Future, his third book
(co-edited with Peter Bishop), was pub-
lished by Social Technologies in 2006. Part
one of this article, detailing trends in de-
mogaphics and wealth, appeared in the
July-August 2008 edition of THE FUTUR-
IST. For more information, visit
www.socialtechnologies.com.
September-October 2008 www.wfs.org 23