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Company Report
RATING: NEUTRAL
Matthew Kelley (207) 699-5800
mkelley@sterneagee.com
Earnings Summary
FYE Dec 2011E 2012E 2013E
Source: Factset
Important Disclosures regarding Price Target Risks, Valuation Methodology, Regulation Analyst Certification, Investment Banking, Ratings Definitions, and potential conflicts of interest begin on Page I of the Appendix Section.
Suite 700
Birmingham, AL 35209
205-949-3500
Note that once the short term funding matures in the back half of 2012 the average cost of borrowings will once again be back above 4%.
Pro forma 12/31/11 Date Matures at 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 Total Remaining higer cost legacy borrow ings Total borrowings Source: Company data 900 750 750 2,400 13,269 15,669 9 6 6 21 581 602 0.98% 0.74% 0.85% 0.86% 4.38% 3.84% Balance Interest Rate
In our view, a third restructuring transaction cannot be ruled out. Once the remaining short-term borrowings are extinguished in the third quarter of next year, the total cost of borrowings will jump back above 4% as the legacy higher cost structures are all that will remain. If rates remain low and pre-payment speeds remain high, the asset yield compression problem will remain acute and margin and earnings pressures will persist. The companys current mortgage loan yield of 5.05% remains above the 30 year fixed rate jumbo offering rate of 4.875%. The companys current 5:1 jumbo ARM rate is 3.125%. These rates are slightly above the current market rates, in our view. In market competitor Investors Bancorp (ISBC $13.14 Buy) for example is currently offering a 4.625% rate on a jumbo (> $750k) 30 year fixed rate mortgage. Figure 2. Restructuring Summaries
Page 2
Quarter Ending Date 12/31/2010 3/31/2011 6/30/2011 9/30/2011 As of 12/16/11 (1) Total remaining borrowings Remaining higer cost legacy borrowings 15,175 13,269 17,148 15,392 113.0% 116.0% Carrying Value (CV) 29,675 22,025 21,125 20,225 Fair Value (FV) 32,976 24,085 23,511 23,299 FV/CV 111.1% 109.4% 111.3% 115.2%
0.81% 0.81%
-1,184 -1,274
4,406 4,406
-26.9% -28.9%
1) Sterne Agee estimate based on current FHLBNY rates Source: Company data
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Pre-tax Balance Gross borrow ings ex tinguished Borrow ings restructured Loans sold Cash and liquidity utilized and/or securities sold Net impact 4,300 0 0 4,300 % of Total 25% 0% 0% 30% Charge/ Gain -17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pro forma - 9/30/12 Organic Deleveraging Cash, equiv alents and due from brokers Securities FHLB Stock Net loans Intangibles Earning assets Noninterest earning assets Total assets Tangible assets Risk w eighted assets RWA/TA 25% 788 25% 50% 788 1,575 Balance 2,473 14,511 727 29,083 152 46,793 908 47,701 47,549 20,988 44% 4.07% 476.0 Rate 0.05% 2.95% 4.85% 4.95% Interest 0.3 107.0 8.8 359.9 Balance 2,202 10,211 585 29,083 152 42,080 908 42,988 42,836 21,418 50%
Pro Forma Rate/ 0.05% 2.75% 4.85% 4.75% Interest 1.1 280.8 28.4 1,381.4
4.02%
1,692
Interest bearing deposits Noninterest bearing deposits Repurchase agreements FHLB borrow ings Total borrow ings Interest bearing liabilities Other liabilities Liabilities 50% 50% 1,575 1,575 3,150
273.4
38,421
Shareholders equity
4,979
4,542
1.46% 1.73%
202.6
1.86% 2.09%
881.0
Equity TCE/TA TCE/RWA TBV shares TBV Securities/assets Borrow ings/assets Borrow ings/funding Loans/deposits Source: Company data and Sterne Agee estimates
4,542 10.2% 20.5% 528 $8.32 24% 30% 34% 114% -9% Change
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Source: FHLBNY
Page 5
$256,401 $272,909 $244,643 $215,273 $40,000 $30,000 $25,000 $28,382 $216,401 $242,909 $219,643 $186,890 2,732 0 0 2,732 3,094 0 0 3,094 3,156 0 (729) (725,344)
$989,226 $230,915 $226,504 $223,334 $220,627 $123,382 $26,296 $24,218 $21,415 $21,475 $865,843 $204,619 $202,287 $201,919 $199,151 11,721 102,468 (1,172,821) (1,786,403) 3,219 0 0 3,219 3,283 0 0 3,283 3,349 0 0 3,349 3,416 0 0 3,416
$901,380 $221,552 $220,546 $219,651 $218,860 $93,404 $18,770 $18,985 $16,294 $16,494 $807,976 $202,782 $201,561 $203,357 $202,366 13,267 0 0 13,267 3,484 0 0 3,484 3,554 0 0 3,554 3,625 0 0 3,625 3,698 0 0 3,698
10,369 2,739 152,625 102,468 - (1,172,092) 162,994 (1,066,885) $1,201,196 222,449 43,939 0 $266,388 892,433 355,227 $450,497 $1.09 $0.91
$259,140 $275,641 $247,737 $218,428 55,639 12,837 0 $68,476 (918,960) (363,296) $93,360 ($1.13) $0.19 71,117 14,720 0 $85,837 159,804 63,796 $96,008 $0.19 $0.19 69,778 13,883 0 $83,661 139,076 54,873 $84,203 $0.17 $0.17 65,771 13,605 0 $79,376 (617,830) (247,132) $70,002 ($0.75) $0.14
$1,000,946 $234,134 $229,788 $226,683 $224,043 262,305 55,045 0 $317,350 (1,237,910) (491,759) $343,573 ($1.51) $0.69 64,437 13,469 0 $77,907 129,931 51,972 $77,959 $0.16 $0.16 64,437 13,335 0 $77,771 127,799 51,120 $76,679 $0.15 $0.15 63,598 13,335 0 $76,933 128,335 51,334 $77,001 $0.16 $0.16 63,772 13,401 0 $77,173 125,394 50,158 $75,236 $0.15 $0.15
$914,647 $225,037 $224,100 $223,276 $222,557 256,244 53,540 0 $309,784 511,459 204,584 $306,876 $0.62 $0.62 63,241 13,535 0 $76,776 129,490 51,796 $77,694 $0.1569 $0.16 63,687 13,671 0 $77,358 127,757 51,103 $76,654 $0.1548 $0.15 64,273 13,807 0 $78,080 128,902 51,561 $77,341 $0.1562 $0.16 64,833 13,945 0 $78,779 127,284 50,914 $76,371 $0.1543 $0.15
Key Ratios
NET INTEREST MARGIN RETURN ON ASSETS RETURN ON TANGIBLE EQUITY GAAP EFFICIENCY RATIO FEES/REVENUES EQUITY TO ASSETS TANGIBLE EQUITY TO TANGIBLE ASSETS LOANS TO DEPOSITS RESERVE TO LOANS RESERVE TO NPAs NPAs TO LOANS + OREO PROVISION/NCOs NCOs TO AVERAGE LOANS STATED BOOK VALUE/SHARE TANGIBLE BOOK VALUE/SHARE 2.01% 0.88% 10.0% 22% 1% 9.0% 8.8% 123% 0.77% 26% 2.96% 182% 0.31% $11.16 $10.85 1.72% -3.73% -48.6% 26% 1% 9.0% 8.7% 119% 0.84% 27% 3.06% 188% 0.28% $9.58 $9.26 2.14% 0.74% 8.1% 31% 1% 9.4% 9.1% 119% 0.86% 27% 3.16% 130% 0.30% $9.89 $9.58 1.97% 0.66% 7.0% 34% 1% 9.8% 9.5% 118% 0.89% 26% 3.39% 135% 0.25% $10.05 $9.75 1.85% -3.09% -33.7% 36% 1% 10.1% 9.8% 117% 0.93% 26% 3.57% 127% 0.30% $9.19 $8.89 1.92% -1.36% -16.8% 32% 1% 10.1% 9.8% 117% 0.93% 26% 3.57% 127% 0.28% $9.19 $8.89 2.13% 0.70% 7.0% 33% 1% 10.3% 10.0% 117% 0.95% 27% 3.51% 130% 0.28% $9.27 $8.96 2.10% 0.69% 6.9% 34% 1% 10.4% 10.0% 117% 0.97% 28% 3.50% 120% 0.28% $9.30 $8.99 2.08% 0.69% 6.8% 34% 1% 10.5% 10.1% 118% 0.97% 29% 3.32% 116% 0.25% $9.37 $9.07 2.05% 0.68% 6.7% 34% 2% 10.5% 10.2% 119% 0.98% 32% 3.06% 116% 0.25% $9.40 $9.09 2.09% 0.69% 6.8% 34% 1% 10.5% 10.2% 119% 0.98% 32% 3.06% 116% 0.26% $9.40 $9.09 2.05% 0.70% 6.8% 34% 2% 10.5% 10.2% 119% 0.98% 36% 2.70% 112% 0.23% $9.48 $9.17 2.03% 0.68% 6.7% 35% 2% 10.5% 10.1% 119% 0.97% 38% 2.54% 112% 0.23% $9.51 $9.20 2.00% 0.68% 6.7% 35% 2% 10.5% 10.1% 120% 0.96% 40% 2.38% 107% 0.20% $9.58 $9.28 1.98% 0.67% 6.6% 35% 2% 10.4% 10.1% 120% 0.95% 43% 2.23% 106% 0.20% $9.62 $9.31 2.01% 0.68% 6.7% 35% 2% 10.4% 10.1% 120% 0.95% 43% 2.23% 106% 0.21% $9.62 $9.31
207.699.5800
Page 6
APPENDIX SECTION
Company Description: Hudson City Bancorp, Inc. is the parent company of Hudson City Savings Bank, a well-established
community banking institution with a longstanding tradition of service excellence. The bank has 135 full-service branches in the New York metropolitan area.
Valuation Methodology:
Our ratings are based on a wide array of valuation methodology. Our "top-down" valuation approach makes extensive use of peer groups based on market capitalization, asset size, geographic location or the nature of the institution. We compare various valuation metrics to the peer group. Relevant valuation metrics include, but are not limited to, price to earnings (trailing twelve month as well as estimates), price to book value, price to tangible book value, dividend yield and several types of deposit premiums. Our "bottomup" valuation process examines the specific geographic franchise, management experience and record, credit culture, deposit composition, loan portfolio characteristics and interest rate sensitivity to aid in determining the overall prospects for the institution. At this level we sometimes employ discounted cash flow analysis to the specific institution. Another valuation process we go through attempts to determine the value of a depository institution as an acquisition. This requires judgments with regard to potential buyers and their wherewithal to purchase the candidate.
Disclosure Legend 1. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. makes a market in the shares of the subject company. 2. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. has, over the past 12 months, managed or co-managed a public securities offering or 3. 4. 5.
provided other investment banking services for the subject company. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services from the subject company in the past 12 months. The Sterne Agee analyst who has active coverage on this company owns a position in the subject company. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company.
Sterne Agee & Leach, Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the next three months. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon various factors, including Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.
Ratings Distribution:
Of the securities rated by Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc., as of September 30, 2011, 51.4% had a BUY rating, 44.4% had a NEUTRAL rating, 3.2% had a UNDERPERFORM rating, and 0% was RESTRICTED. Within those ratings categories, 3.8% of the securities rated BUY, 1.1% rated NEUTRAL, 0% rated UNDERPERFORM, and 0% rated RESTRICTED received investment banking services from Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc., within the 12 months preceding September 30, 2011.
Price Chart(s):
To receive price charts or other disclosures on the companies mentioned in this report, please contact Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. toll-free at (800) 240-1438 or (205) 949-3689.
Founded in 1901, Sterne Agee has been providing investors like you with high-quality investment opportunities for over a century. During the early years, our founders prominently established themselves in the financial securities industry in the southeastern United States. Today, we have expanded to serve all regions of the country. Sterne, Agee is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama with offices in 22 states. Sterne Agee is one of the largest independent firms in the country. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. is a division of Sterne Agee Group, Inc., which also includes The Trust Company of Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.; Sterne Agee Asset Management, Inc.; Sterne Agee Clearing, Inc.; and Sterne Agee Financial Services, Inc.www.sterneagee.com
Steve Pokorny
(214) 702-4020
JT Cacciabaudo
(212) 763-8288
EQUITY RESEARCH
Director of Research (212) 338-4731
Property/Casualty Insurance
Dan Farrell Nitin Chhabra, FCAS Mng. Dir. Analyst (212) 338-4782 (212) 338-4779
Aerospace
Peter Arment Josh W. Sullivan
Restaurants
Lynne Collier Philip May Mng. Dir. Analyst (214) 702-4045 (214) 702-4004
HEALTHCARE
PHARMACEUTICAL SERVICES
Greg T. Bolan Mng. Dir. (615) 760-1469
Financial Technology
Greg Smith Jennifer Dugan Mng. Dir Analyst (818) 615-2029 (415) 402-6051
Life Insurance
John M. Nadel Alex Levine Mng. Dir. Associate (212) 338-4717 (212) 338-4748
Semiconductors
Vijay Rakesh Mark Kelley
Email Address for Sterne Agee Employees: first initial + last name@sterneagee.com (e.g., jsmith@sterneagee.com)