Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
6-9
10 - 13
14 - 22
23 - 26
27 - 31
32 - 43
44 - 83
84 - 94
95 - 104
105 - 114
www.thomsonreuters.com
Table of Contents
115 - 119
120 - 132
133 - 136
137 - 142
143 - 150
151 - 156
157 - 162
163 - 166
167 - 170
171 - 178
www.thomsonreuters.com
Table of Contents
179 - 184
185 - 197
198 - 203
204 - 211
212 - 251
252 - 257
258 - 286
287 - 301
302 - 311
312 - 317
www.thomsonreuters.com
Table of Contents
318 - 345
346 - 351
352 - 355
356 - 359
360 - 365
366 - 371
372 - 386
387 - 390
391 - 398
399 - 403
www.thomsonreuters.com
Table of Contents
404 - 409
410 - 413
414 - 416
417 - 422
423 - 428
429 - 433
434 - 443
444 - 448
449 - 455
456 - 459
www.thomsonreuters.com
EQUITY RESEARCH
TERMINATION
China November 4, 2011
Closing Price (11/1/11): 12-Month Target Price: 52-Week Range: Market Cap (MM): Shares O/S (MM): Float (MM): Shares Short (MM): Avg. Vol. (000) Book Value/Share: Dividend/Yield: Risk Profile: Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q $23.30 NA $5.82 - $23.72 $731.6 31.4 14.5 8.3 2,340 $20.70 NA Medium Revenues ($M) 2011E 2012E $103.8A $122.1 $131.4A $157.4 $136.1 $155.3 $134.5 $153.8
$505.9 $588.6 FY Maxim Group Current Current FYE: December EPS P/E 2009A: GAAP $0.77 30.3 2010A: GAAP $2.46 9.5 2011E: GAAP $2.05 11.3 2012E: GAAP $2.49 9.4 LT Earnings Growth 10% - 15% GAAP Quarterly EPS Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Consensus-First Call FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Echo He, MD, PhD ehe@maximgrp.com Current 2011E $0.34A $0.55A $0.59 $0.57 $2.05 Current 2012E $0.51 $0.70 $0.67 $0.60 $2.49
GAAP Quarterly EPS 2011E 2012E $0.34A $0.51 $0.55A $0.70 $0.57 $0.67 $0.57 $0.60 $2.03 $2.57 (212) 895-3718
Maxim Group LLC 405 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10174 www.maximgrp.com
SEE PAGES 2-4 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS 6
DISCLOSURES
Source: Investars.com
Maxim Group LLC Stock Rating System As of:
% of Coverage Universe Expected Performance* Buy Hold Sell Expected total return of 15% or more over next 12 months Expected total return of plus or minus 14% over next 12 months Expected total negative return of at least 15% over next 12 months with Rating 61.8% 32.9% 5.3%
11/4/2011
% of Ratings for which Firm provided Banking Services in the last 12 months 51.1% 0.0% 0.0%
* Relative to Nasdaq Composite. An Under Review (UR) rating represents a stock that the Firm has temporarily placed under review due to a material change.
Maxim Group makes a market in Harbin Electric, Inc. Maxim Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Harbin Electric, Inc. in the next 3 months.
I, Echo He, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firms total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. Valuation Methods: Our Harbin Electric, Inc. valuation is based on the announced $24 per share price in the leverage buyout proposal. It is also supported by our comparable company analysis and discount cash flow method.
Price Target and Investment Risks: Aside from general market and other economic risks, risks particular to our Harbin Electric, Inc. rating include: (1) Failure of the proposed LBO to be completed; (2) Slowdown of Chinese economy; (3) Raw material price increases; (4) High competition in industrial motor market; (5) Difficulties of developing linear motor market; and (6) Potential equity issuance.
RISK RATINGS
Risk ratings take into account both fundamental criteria and price volatility. Speculative Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to early-stage companies with minimal to no revenues, lack of earnings, balance sheet concerns, and/or a short operating history. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be significantly above the industry. Price Volatility: Because of the inherent fundamental criteria of the companies falling within this risk category, the price volatility is expected to be significant with the possibility that the investment could eventually be worthless. Speculative stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. High Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies having below-average revenue and earnings visibility, negative cash flow, and low market cap or public float. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be above the industry. Price volatility: The price volatility of companies falling within this category is expected to be above the industry. High-risk stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. Medium Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to approximate the industry average. Low Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have above-average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to be below the industry.
DISCLAIMERS
Some companies that Maxim Group LLC follows are emerging growth companies whose securities typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Maxim Group LLC research reports may not be suitable for some investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance. This communication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities mentioned herein. This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Maxim Group, LLC (Maxim). Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Maxim to be reliable, but Maxim makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. The aforementioned sentence does not apply to the disclosures required by NASD Rule 2711. Maxim accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Maxim. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Maxim may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and Maxim is under no obligation to ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgment at its original date of publication by Maxim and are subject to change without notice. The price, value of and income from any of the securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. Securities recommended, offered or sold by Maxim: (1) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Company; (2) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution; and 3) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of principal invested. Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances, you may be required to pay more money to support these losses.
Mark Tobin, (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA, ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
Prior to dropping coverage, we had assigned shares of HRBN a NEUTRAL rating and $24.00 PT. Effective with this note, prior estimates, ratings, and price target should not be relied upon.
Pro-forma EPS for all periods Revenue ($ millions) Yr Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q YEAR 2010 105.5A 105.4A 109.4A 106.2A 426.5A 2011E Curr 103.8A 131.4A NA NA NA 2012E Curr NA NA NA NA NA
30 25 20 15 10 5 Price
May-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Dec-10
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 3 to 4 of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 888 San Clemente Drive | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
Nov-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Oct-11
Jul-11
10
VALUATION
NA
RISKS
NA
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Harbin Electric, Inc. develops, engineers, manufactures and sells an array of industrial electric motors, customized linear motors, controller automation systems, automobile specialty micro-motors, and other special motors. The Company operates, through its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Harbin Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd (HTFE). The Company offers three key product lines: industrial electric motors, linear motors and their integrated application systems, and automobile specialty micro-motors.
Page 2 of 4
11
Disclosures:
ROTH makes a market in shares of Harbin Electric, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral. On May 26, 2011, ROTH changed its rating system in order to incorporate coverage that is Under Review.
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 11/02/11 Count Percent 53 28.0 9 13.0 0 0 4 28.6
Rating Buy [B] Neutral [N] Sell [S] Under Review [UR]
Count 189 69 0 14
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Under Review [UR]: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, indicates the temporary removal of the prior rating, price target and estimates for the security. Prior rating, price target and estimates should no longer be relied upon for UR-rated securities. Not Covered [NC]: ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts
Page 3 of 4
12
Page 4 of 4
13
Mark Tobin, (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA, ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
China
U.S.-Listed China - Privatization, PE Investment, & Dual-Listing (8th Edition)
This report provides an update on the activity within the U.S.-listed China sector related to privatization, re-listing, PE investment, and duallisting. It includes a table with details for each company pursuing privatization. PRIVATIZATION UPDATE Since our last update (dated Sept 26, 2011), HRBN's going-private deal was approved by shareholder vote, CADC announced board approval and signing of a definitive agreement (which we believe as one of the major meaningful milestones in privatization activities), plus two new privatization/buy-out announcements (SNDA and CRIC). Furthermore, CCCL's shareholders (former SPAC founders) approached the board with a suggestion to take the company private, with tentative financial support from Macquarie. The proposal was later declined by the board. We view the imminent closing of HRBN's buy-out (expected within one week) as a key catalyst for other privatization candidates, given its relatively large size and high profile. This, combined with several other privatizations that have closed within the past several months, have established a definitive process and timeline for these transactions. We anticipate future deals will trade at narrower discounts to the proposed buy-out prices, particularly after a definitive agreement is signed. Key events over the past month include:
s
Sep 27- CCCL's shareholders owning 13.4% of the company disclosed the submission of initial take-private proposal to company board via a 13D filing; on Oct 4, the group filed an updated 13D stating that the board had declined such option, but the group would continue to have discussions with the board on possible strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value. Oct 17 - SNDA announced the receipt of a preliminary non-binding proposal letter from Chairman/CEO to take the company private for US $41.35 per ADS in cash. The buyer group controlled approximately 68.4% of the company. Oct 24 - CADC announced entering into a definitive agreement and plan of merger with the buyer group led by company's Chairman/CEO and COO; offer price remained at $2.65 per share in cash. Oct 28 - CRIC announced receipt of non-binding proposal from E-House (NYSE: EJ), currently the largest shareholder owning 54.1% stake, to acquire all outstanding shares of the company. Each CRIC share would be exchanged for $1.60 cash and 0.6 E-House shares. Oct 29 - HRBN shareholders approved privatization; the company expects deal completion within one week.
TAKE-AWAYS FROM BEIJING VC/PE CONFERENCE Last week, ROTH co-hosted the ROTH Capital - ChinaVenture Investment Conference in Beijing, which was attended by over 800 people, including PE and VC funds, private and public companies, and service providers. Our discussions with PEs, companies, and service providers indicate that interest in privatizations remains high, particularly with several successful transactions. We view China's credit markets as a key pacing item for the next wave of privatizations. We continue to view the Hong Kong stock exchange as the likely exit for most of these privatizations, but look to SNDA's privatization to provide an indication of the prospects for re-listing on mainland exchanges.
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 7 to 9 of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 888 San Clemente Drive | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
14
CHINA
Summary of On-going Deals
China Advanced Construction Materials China Natural Gas CADC CHNG Chairman & CEO, Vice Chairman & CEO Chairman & COO China Real Estate (4) Fushi Copperweld China Fire & Security Information Corp CFSG CRIC FSIN Bain Capital E-House (China) Chariman & CEO, Abax Holdings Limited (NYSE: Global Capital (Management's 59.1% stake already agreed to EJ) vote for the agreement) Mar-07-2011 59.1% $9.00 43.8% --17.3x 16.4x $8.86 (1.6%) Oct-28-2011 54.1% $6.62 22.5% --50.9x 14.5x $5.95 (10.1%) Nov-03-2010 29.2% $11.50 26.4% --8.8x 8.2x $6.36 (44.7%) Under board review Harbin Electric HRBN Chairman & CEO, Abax Global Capital
Announcement Date Pre-deal Buyer/mgmt Ownership % Bid Price per Share or ADS Premium over previous day close Price Revision Date Revised Price P/E (TTM) (2) P/E (NTM)
(2) (1)
Jul-26-2011 49.5% $2.65 15.2% --2.7x 3.6x $2.26 (14.7%) Board approved
Jun-30-2011 14.0% $4.25 22.8% --5.8x 5.2x $1.60 (62.4%) Board informed; (exclusive partnership with Theme Investment terminated on Sept 2; Shares halted since Sept 21 at a last price of $1.60) Pending N/A N/A $91.2M
Oct-11-2010 40.6% $24.00 20.2% --8.8x 7.3x $23.49 (2.1%) Shareholder meeting approved deal on Oct 29, 2011; Expected to close within a week
Shareholder meeting Under board review approved deal on Sept 22, 2011; Expected to close in Q4' 2011
Under board review Under board review; Shares halted starting Apr 11, 2011, later delisted from NYSE Amex and moved to OTC on August 18, 2011 Pending N/A N/A $360.0M Pending N/A N/A $2,262.8M
Board Approval / Definitive Agreement Initial Filing of SC 13E3 Voting Requirement Implied Equity Value (3)
May-20-2011 Jun-10-2011 >75% total & >50% of disinterested shares $257.8M (1) Debt: $60M; (2) Equity: Bain$160.7M, Mgmt rollover$51.3M BofA, Citi, HSBC US$ 60M 75.8% Barclays Capital Shearman & Sterling LLP
Jun-20-2011 Jul-13-2011 >50% total & >50% of disinterested shares $750.0M (1) Debt: CDB-$400M, Abax note-$25M; (2) Equity: Abax cash$38.8M, Mgmt rollover$264.1M, Abax rollover$40.6M China Development Bank: US$ 400M Abax: US$25M 23.2% Morgan Stanley & Co. / Lazard Freres & Co. LLC
Source of funding
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Debt Financing Detail Post-deal Private Equity Ownership Board Financial Advisor Board Legal Advisor
(1)
N/A N/A N/A Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom, LLP
N/A N/A Cowen and Company, LLC / Morgan Joseph TriArtisan LLC Not disclosed
Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP LLP
Premium of bid price above the closing price on previous trading day before announcement (2) Valuation multiples are based on bid price over TTM and NTM EPS as of deal announcement date; data sourced from ROTH research if companies are covered, or Bloomberg if otherwise; N/A indicates not available, N/M indicates not meaningful (3) Implied Equity Value is calculated based on latest available bid price and shares outstanding number as disclosed (4) The offer price is 0.6 shares of EJ common stock plus $1.6 in cash, we convert to dollar value using EJ's closing price on Oct-27-2011 Source: Company Filings, Bloomberg, ROTH Capital Partners
Page 2 of 9
15
CHINA
Summary of Completed or Abandoned Deals
BMP Sunstone BJGP Sanofi-Aventis China Security & Chemspec Surveillance China Ceramics CNinsure International Technology Funtalk China CCCL CISG CPC CSR FTLK Group of TPG Asia, Chairman & CEO, Chairman & CEO Chairman & CEO shareholders Chairman & CEO, Primavera (key mgmt), (original SPAC CDH Inservice ARCH, Capital Ally, GM founders) Investment Sep-27-2011 13.4% N/A $2.52 N/A --N/A N/A May-16-2011 34.3% $19.00 $13.16 44.4% --15.0x 13.3x Nov-11-2010 55.8% $8.00 $6.32 26.6% Mar-21-2011 $8.10 9.0x 8.2x Mar-08-2011 20.9% $6.50 $4.10 58.5% --6.8x 5.9x Mar-25-2011 77.1% $7.10 $6.15 15.4% May-31-2011 $7.20 8.4x 8.7x Qiao Xing Mobile
(2)
QXM Parent Company Qiao Xing Universal Resources, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING) Sep-09-2010 61.0% $3.92 $3.55 10.3% --N/M N/A
SOKO Fitness & Spa Group SOKF Chairman & CEO (key mgmt) together with several existing institutional investors Jul-25-2011 90.8% $4.50 $3.70 21.6% --8.3x 7.9x
Tiens Biotech Group Tongjitang Chinese Medicines TCM TBV TIENS (USA) Hanmax CEO & Director Investment (controlled by (owned by CEO) / Fosun Chairman & CEO)
Announcement Date Pre-deal Buyer/mgmt Ownership % Bid Price per Share or ADS Price 1-Day Prior to Announcement Premium over previous day close (1) Price Revision Date Revised Price P/E (TTM) P/E (NTM) Status
(3)
(3)
Completed on Feb Board declined the Withdrawn on option 24, 2011 Sept 15, 2011 Macquarie has proposed to provide the financing N/A N/A
Completed on Aug Completed on 19, 2011. Sept 16, 2011 Standard Chartered US$ 70M Mar-21-2011 May-03-2011 China Development Bank US$ 500M Apr-20-2011 May-31-2011
Completed on Aug Abandoned due to Completed on Sep Completed on July Completed on Aug Completed on Apr Withdrawn on Jun 25, 2011 11, 2011. Shortlack of quorum on 29, 2010 27, 2011. Short15, 2011 27, 2008 Apr 7, 2011 form merger. form merger. Not involved Not involved Not involved Not involved Not involved CITIC Bank US$ 25M Nov-01-2010 Nov-26-2010 N/A
Not involved
Not involved
Oct-28-2010 N/A
N/A N/A
May-31-2011 Jun-14-2011
Jan-03-2011 Oct-22-2010 >50% of disinterested voting shareholders representing >75% of voting disinterested shares Not involved Not disclosed
Oct-12-2009 Nov-13-2009
N/A N/A
N/A Jun-27-2011
N/A N/A
Voting Requirement
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Post-deal Private Equity Ownership Board Financial Advisor Board Legal Advisor
(1) (2)
N/A N/A
N/A Duff & Phelps, LLC O'Melveny & Myers LLP and Walkers
27.2% Houlihan Lokey Shearman & Sterling LLP / Maples and Calder
77.7% Bank of America Merrill Lynch Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP / Maples and Calder
Not involved Brean Murray, Carret & Co. Arent Fox LLP
Not involved Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Sheppard, Mullin, Richter & Hampton LLP / Thorp Alberga
N/A
Not disclosed
N/A
N/A
Premium of bid price above the closing price on previous trading day before announcement The offer price is 1.9 shares of XING common stock plus $0.8 in cash, we convert to dollar value using XING's closing price on Sept-8-2010 (3) Valuation multiples are based on bid price over TTM and NTM EPS as of deal announcement date; data sourced from ROTH research if companies are covered, or Bloomberg if otherwise; N/A indicates not available, N/M indicates not meaningful Source: Company Filings, Bloomberg, ROTH Capital Partners
Page 3 of 9
16
CHINA
Factors that may impede share price from reaching the target include usage limitation due to safety and high energy consumption concerns, substituted by other external wall decorative materials, increasing competition, potential slowdown of new housing construction and failure to complete and integrate acquisitions or capacity expansion.
RISKS
Safety concerns and high energy consumption may limit the use of exterior ceramic tiles
Exterior ceramic tiles may be substituted by other external wall decorative materials
Increased competition may reduce profitability - With over 300 manufacturers, the exterior ceramic tile industry is highly fragmented. Given product similarities, increasing competition will lower industry's selling price, thus decrease the company's profitability.
Potential slowdown of new housing construction - The exterior ceramic tiles industry is directly impacted by new housing construction. Government's policies with the intention to push down housing price might adversely affect developers' confidence, which in turn, slower the pace of new housing construction.
The increase of coal price may adversely affect the cost structure - Coal is a key input of ceramic tiles production and accounts for 20% of COGS. From 2009 to 2010, average coal price increased 15%, from RMB 936 per ton to RMB 1,081 per ton. Inability to transfer the coal price increase will narrow the profitability in the future.
Failure to complete and integrate acquisitions or capacity expansion - Capacity expansion through internal build or acquisition are the main driver of the company's growth. Failure to successfully integrate acquisitions could significantly impact the company's growth prospects.
RISKS
Change in macro policies. CFSG's major revenues come from the iron and steel industry, and significant changes in the steel industry can impact the company business prospect. Concerns on over-capacity, horizontal consolidations, accompanied with imposed tariffs on steel exports, have placed the industry under close monitoring by the central government. Concentration risk. The company's revenue recognition and profit generation is currently highly relied upon its recently signed $92M total solution contract with Wuhan Iron and Steel, accounting for more than half of quarterly revenue. Any unexpected changes or progress delay in project execution will significantly impact CFSG's financial performance. Extended customer payment period. Depressed steel prices and continuous market consolidation have caused many steel makers facing challenging market conditions. Accordingly, extended customer payment period may have led to recent CFSG decrease in cash and increasing A/R balance.
17
CHINA
VALUATION
RISKS
Volatile raw material prices. Fushi's selling prices are highly dependent on copper, aluminum and steel prices. Changes in these prices may adversely impact demand for FSIN's bi-metallic products and its operational results. Execution/integration risk. FSIN continues to integrate its acquired operations, including Copperweld, Shanghai Hongtai, and Dalian Jinchuan. Its overall global expansion strategy faces execution risk due to a variety of factors. Going private transaction risk. In November 2010, FSIN's Board of Directors received a going private proposal from its Chairman (Mr. Fu) and Abax Global Capital to acquire all of the outstanding shares of common stock for $11.50 per share. The inability to complete this transaction could negatively impact share performance. Management turnover. The company's current CFO, Craig Studwell, was appointed in October 2010. While we view Mr. Studwell as highly experienced and capable, we note that his tenure with FSIN is limited and he has yet to oversee the filing of an audited annual report for the company. Litigation risk. Associated with its going private proposal, a shareholder class action lawsuit was filed against the Company and certain officers and directors. This lawsuit could consume financial and management resources, presenting financial and business risk.
RISKS
Change in macro policies in China. Two of HRBN's major catalysts, oil pump for oilfield and linear motors for urban metro lines, can be largely affected by central and local government policies. The development of urban railways can experience delays that out of control of HRBN, such as delay in construction. Volatile raw materials costs. HRBN is subject to market fluctuations and volatility of two major raw materials, copper and steel respectively.
RISKS
The investment in shares of Shanda Interactive involves various risks that could adversely affect the company's operations; these risks include the following:
Page 5 of 9
18
CHINA
Page 6 of 9
19
CHINA
Disclosures:
ROTH and/or its employees, officers, directors and owners own options, rights or warrants to purchase shares of Fushi Copperweld, Inc. stock. Within the last twelve months, ROTH has received compensation for investment banking services from China Ceramics Co., Ltd.. ROTH makes a market in shares of China Ceramics Co., Ltd., China Fire & Security Group, Inc., Fushi Copperweld, Inc., Harbin Electric, Inc. and Shanda Interactive Entertainment and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. Within the last twelve months, ROTH has managed or co-managed a public offering for China Ceramics Co., Ltd.. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral. On May 26, 2011, ROTH changed its rating system in order to incorporate coverage that is Under Review.
Page 7 of 9
20
CHINA
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month.
Page 8 of 9
21
CHINA
Distribution of IB Services Firmwide
Rating Buy [B] Neutral [N] Sell [S] Under Review [UR]
Count 190 68 0 14
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Under Review [UR]: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, indicates the temporary removal of the prior rating, price target and estimates for the security. Prior rating, price target and estimates should no longer be relied upon for UR-rated securities. Not Covered [NC]: ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the express written permission of ROTH. Copyright 2011. Member: FINRA/SIPC.
Page 9 of 9
22
Mark Tobin, (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA, ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
| HRBN - $22.55 - NASDAQ | Neutral HRBN: Shareholders Approve Privatization; Deal Expected to Close Within a Week
HRBN's shareholders voted to approve its privatization transaction. The company expects the deal to be completed in the following week. Upon closing, the stock will be de-listed from NASDAQ. HRBN announced on Oct 29th that shareholders voted in favor of the merger to take the company private. Approximately 90.7% of the company's total outstanding shares of common stock participated in the vote. ~90.6% of common shares outstanding (~84.2% of unaffiliated shares) voted in favor of the proposal. The company expects the transaction to be completed within the following week with letters of transmittal mailed within two business days of the effective date of the merger.
Pro-forma EPS for all periods Revenue ($ millions) Yr Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q YEAR 2010 105.5A 105.4A 109.4A 106.2A 426.5A 2011E Curr 103.8A 131.4A 125.1E 130.2E 490.5E 2012E Curr 568.9E
30 25 20 15 10 5
May-11
Nov-10
Dec-10
Aug-11
Sep-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Oct-11
Jul-11
Price
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 3 to 4 of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 888 San Clemente Drive | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
23
VALUATION
Our $24 price target is based on the offer price of the proposed buy-out. Factors that may impede HRBN shares from reaching our price target include: s There are still numerous steps in the privatization process, some of which could lead to delays in completing the transaction. s A slow-down in China's economic growth and continued inflation could impact sales and compress margins.
RISKS
Change in macro policies in China. Two of HRBN's major catalysts, oil pump for oilfield and linear motors for urban metro lines, can be largely affected by central and local government policies. The development of urban railways can experience delays that out of control of HRBN, such as delay in construction. Volatile raw materials costs HRBN is subject to market fluctuations and volatility of two major raw materials, copper and steel respectively.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Harbin Electric, Inc. develops, engineers, manufactures and sells an array of industrial electric motors, customized linear motors, controller automation systems, automobile specialty micro-motors, and other special motors. The Company operates, through its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Harbin Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd (HTFE). The Company offers three key product lines: industrial electric motors, linear motors and their integrated application systems, and automobile specialty micro-motors.
Page 2 of 4
24
Disclosures:
ROTH makes a market in shares of Harbin Electric, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral. On May 26, 2011, ROTH changed its rating system in order to incorporate coverage that is Under Review.
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 10/28/11 Count Percent 52 27.5 9 13.2 0 0 4 28.6
Rating Buy [B] Neutral [N] Sell [S] Under Review [UR]
Count 189 68 0 14
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Under Review [UR]: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, indicates the temporary removal of the prior rating, price target and estimates for the security. Prior rating, price target and estimates should no longer be relied upon for UR-rated securities. Not Covered [NC]: ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts
Page 3 of 4
25
Page 4 of 4
26
D.I. REPORT
HRBN $22.98 Mkt. Cap.
O c t o b e r 2 7 , 2 0 11
Our Process and D.I. Rating Our process is simple. We consistently research the same 100 risk factors on each company, harvested from 5 years of SEC filings, across the following major categories: SEC activity; accounting/auditor issues; capital markets events; stability of the board and executives, and non-SEC investigative activity. Each D.I. Report identifies and summarizes those risk factors that we believe hold the potential to destabilize a company, distract its management, and/or interfere with underlying fundamentals. Our reports otherwise take no view on a public companys fundamental outlook or whether you should buy, sell, or hold its securities. D.I. Ratings, range from Low to High Risk. They are based on the number, nature, and timing of the risk factors we found among the 100 we research over the most recent 5 years. Detailed, well-organized, and in-depth analyst notes are available to subscribers for each D.I. Report we publish. High Risk It is our opinion that companies with a High Risk rating carry so much risk as to hold the potential to overwhelm underlying fundamentals. Required Disclosure - Please see http://www.disclosureinsight.com/legal for certain disclosures regarding ITG Inc. (a member of FINRA and SIPC) required under NASD Rule 2711(h).
D.I. RATING
High Risk
D.I. PROFILE Insider ownership; an upcoming transaction that would take HRBN private; the appointment of a non-top tier auditor; acquisition activity; a related party transaction; and the chairman and CEO positions being held by one person support our opinion of a High Risk rating for HRBN. Tianfu Yang has served as Chairman & CEO since Jan-05 and owned 31.1% of the companys outstanding common shares as of 18-Jun-11. In Jun-11, HRBN entered into a definitive agreement and plan of merger with Tech Full Electric Company Limited, a company wholly owned indirectly by CEO Yang. Pursuant to the agreement, HRBN will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tech Full Electric Company. Immediately prior to the merger, each share of HRBN common stock will be converted into the right to receive $24.00 in cash without interest, except for shares owned by Tech Full Electric Company and certain of HRBNs employees and officers. The merger is expected to close in the fourth quarter of the current fiscal year and if completed, HRBN will be a privately-held company. In Dec-06, HRBN appointed Moore Stephens Wurth Frazer and Torbet, LLP as its new auditor. In Jan-10, Moore Stephens Wurth Frazer and Torbet, LLP and Frost, PLLC formed a new partnership firm named Frazer Frost, LLP. Frazer Frost was just outside of the top 50 accounting firms by revenue in 2010. HRBN reported 7 acquisitions for $204 million, of which over $54 million was allocated to goodwill. On 28Dec-10, HRBN made an advance of $1.5 million to an entity (Tai Fu Industrial, Co., Ltd.) owned by CEO Yang. HRBN stated that the "purpose of the advance was to accommodate an urgent cash need of a transaction for this related entity." As of 31Dec-10, the advance had been repaid to HRBN. CEO Yang is also the brother of VP Tianli Yang. SEC Activity: A response we received from the SEC to a Freedom of Information Act request indicated no investigative activity as of 19-Oct-11. Comment letters are available from 5 SEC reviews. The first review (20-Jan-06 to 8-Feb-07) pertained to the registration statement on Form SB-2 filed 13-Jan-06 and its various amendments. This review lasted longer than 6 months, which is atypical in our experience. The second review (9-Nov-07 to 7-Jan-08) pertained to the 2006 10-KSB and raised issues including disclosure regarding the 395% increase in SG&A expenses in 2006; classification of the change in the fair value of warrants with the income statement; revenue recognition policy for certain services including after-sales services; disclosure regarding construction in progress; accounting for transactions related to a joint research and development agreement with IEECAS; the companys eligibility to file on Form 10-QSB beginning with the quarter ended 31-Mar-07; disclosure regarding grant income received from the government; and accounting for payments in connection with a development agreement with
763-595-0900 direports@disclosureinsight.com www.disclosureinsight.com 2011 Disclosure Insight, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Additional legal and patent notices apply.
27
Disclosure Insight
D.I. Report
Shelton Technology. The third review (21-Jul-08 to 27-Oct-08) pertained to the 2007 10-KSB, 2007 10-K/A, and the registration statement on Form S-3 filed 24-Jul-08. The review pertained to managements assessment of internal control. The fourth review (20-Aug-09 to 30-Sep-09) pertained to the 2008 10-K and raised the following issues: inclusion of certain contractual obligation amounts in the contractual obligations table; effectiveness of internal controls; disclosure regarding a significant increase in inventory; accounting for an income tax rebate; and clarification regarding the use of an independent appraiser to determine the fair value of the acquired assets of Hengda. The fifth review (28-Apr-10 to 14-May-10) pertained to the registration statement on Form S-3 filed 20-Apr-10 and the amendment filed 30-Apr-10. Accounting/Auditor: In Dec-06, HRBN dismissed Kabani & Company, Inc. as its auditor and appointed Moore Stephens Wurth Frazer and Torbet, LLP as the replacement. No disagreements were disclosed between HRBN and Kabani & Company. In Jan-10, Moore Stephens Wurth Frazer and Torbet, LLP and Frost, PLLC formed a new partnership firm named Frazer Frost, LLP. This firm was subsequently approved as the companys new auditor. HRBN's disclosure controls and procedures were not effective as of 31-Dec-07, due to the companys failure to include managements report on internal control over financial reporting in its 2007 10-KSB. Disclosure controls and procedures were subsequently declared effective as of 30-Sep-08. In Mar-11, HRBN disclosed the discovery of 5 material weaknesses in internal control that existed as of 31-Dec-10 at Xian Simo, a former state-owned-enterprise acquired in Oct-09. These material weaknesses rendered HRBNs internal control ineffective on the consolidated level. The 5 material weaknesses related to: bank reconciliation, reconciliation and classification of notes receivable, calculation of provision of income tax, valuation of inventory allowance, and inventory recording. HRBN reported that its disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of 30-Jun-11. The 2007 10-KSB was amended 3 times (Jul-08, Aug-08, and Oct-08) to restate a variety of disclosures relating to controls and procedures, exhibits, signatures, and the exhibit index. HRBN filed an amended 2010 10-K on 29-Sep-11 for the purpose of amending and supplementing the statements of cash flows, exhibits, disclosure regarding risk factors, and disclosure regarding controls and procedures. The changes to the statements of cash flows were insignificant. Executive Suite: Stable. Tianfu Yang has served as CEO since 24-Jan-05. Zedong Xu has served as CFO and Principal Accounting Officer since 24-Jan-05. The Board: There have been 5 departures. In Dec-06, Christopher Chung-Yi Hsu (then age 25) resigned in connection with his resignation from Citadel Equity Fund, Ltd (CEF), a majority holder of HRBNs guaranteed senior secured floating rate notes. In Mar-07, Oliver Weisberg (then age 34) resigned. At the time, Weisberg was a managing Director and Head of the Special Situations - Asia Group at CEF. Suofei Xu (then age 43) was last listed as a director in the S-3 filed 24-Jul-08. There was no disclosure regarding the details of his departure. In Aug-09, Feng Bai (then age 39, a member of the audit and compensation committees) did not stand for re-election at the annual meeting. In Jul-09, Patrick McManus (then age 55, Chair of the audit committee, a member of the nominating and compensation committees) passed away. CEO Yang has been Chairman since 24-Jan-05. Capital Markets: HRBN reported 7 acquisitions for $204 million, of which over $54 million was allocated to goodwill. The largest acquisition was the Oct-09 purchase of Xian Simo for $112 million, of which $42 million was allocated to goodwill. In Jun-11, HRBN entered into a definitive agreement and plan of merger with Tech Full Electric Company Limited, a company wholly owned indirectly by CEO Yang. Pursuant to the agreement, HRBN will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Tech Full Electric Company. Immediately prior to the merger, each share of HRBN common stock will be converted into the right to receive $24.00 in cash without interest, except for shares owned by Tech Full Electric Company and certain of HRBNs employees and officers. If the agreement is terminated under certain circumstances, HRBN will be required to pay a $23 million termination fee. The merger is expected to close in the fourth quarter of the current fiscal year and if completed, HRBN will be a privatelyheld company. On 29-Sep-11, HRBN announced that it had filed definitive proxy materials with the SEC in connection with the merger and that mailing of such proxy materials to shareholders was expected to begin immediately. A special shareholder meeting will be held on 29-Oct-11 to vote on the matter. On 27-Aug-09, HRBN received a letter from NASDAQ stating that, as a result of the departure of director Feng Bai and the death of director Patrick McManus (both audit committee members), the company was not in compliance with listing standards related to audit committee composition. Dr. Ching Chuen Chan and Yunyue Ye were subsequently appointed to the board and audit committee, at which point HRBN regained compliance on 31-Aug-09. HRBN has been on NASDAQs list of threshold securities for months. A threshold security is any equity security of any issuer that is registered under Section 12 of the
www.disclosureinsight.com
28
Disclosure Insight
D.I. Report
Exchange Act, or that is required to file reports under Section 15(d) of the Exchange Act, where, for 5 consecutive settlement days: i) there are aggregate fails to deliver at a registered clearing agency of 10,000 shares or more per security, ii) the level of fails is equal to at least 0.5% of the issuers total shares outstanding, and iii) the security is included on a list published by a self-regulatory organization. A security ceases to be a threshold security if it does not exceed the specified level of fails for 5 consecutive settlement days. There were 6 instances of stock price volatility >10% in the past year. As of 18-Jun-11, directors and executive officers as a group owned 35.20% of HRBNs outstanding stock, of which 31.10% was held by CEO Yang. On 28-Dec-10, HRBN made an advance of $1.5 million to an entity (Tai Fu Industrial, Co., Ltd.) owned by CEO Yang. HRBN stated that the "purpose of the advance was to accommodate an urgent cash need of a transaction for this related entity." As of 31-Dec-10, the advance had been repaid to HRBN. We also note that CEO Tianfu Yang and VP Tianli Yang are brothers. Non-SEC Investigative Activity and Reviews: Nothing of note. Are conference calls routinely held? Are there multiple classes of stock? Is this a controlled company? Yes No No Is there a small float? (<50% of shares outstanding.) Is revenue concentrated/otherwise not meaningful? Were noteworthy related party transactions found? No No Yes
This D.I. Report represents the summation of 100 separate risk factors we analyzed over a 5-year period. The in-depth analyst notes used to produce this report are available to clients on our website.
www.disclosureinsight.com
29
Disclosure Insight
D.I. Report
Disclosures:
The following are the D.I. Ratings we may assign: High Risk: It is our opinion that companies with a High Risk rating carry so much risk as to hold the potential to overwhelm underlying fundamentals. Medium Risk - Negative Bias: Companies with a Medium Risk rating have at least one risk factor that concerns us. We assign a Negative Bias to the Medium Risk rating to those companies that in our opinion carry sufficient risk that the rating could deteriorate to High Risk. The Medium Risk - Negative Bias rating can also be assigned to those companies previously rated as High Risk that have shown some improvement, albeit not enough to yet warrant a lower risk rating as they could just as easily become High Risk again. Medium Risk - Positive Bias: Companies with a Medium Risk rating have at least one risk factor that concerns us. We assign a Positive Bias to the Medium Risk rating for those companies that in our opinion carry at least one risk factor that could potentially deteriorate into a higher risk challenge. The Medium Risk - Positive Bias rating can also be assigned to those companies previously rated as carrying higher risk, but have shown sufficient improvement. Low Risk: Companies with a Low Risk rating carry a low risk profile. In our opinion, the nature and timing of the risk factors we found do not concern us at the time of report publication. Intellectual Property This material is copyrighted 2000 to 2011 by Disclosure Insight, Inc. All rights reserved. The works of authorship contained in the accompanying material, including but not limited to all data, design, text, images, charts and other data compilations or collective works are owned by Disclosure Insight, Inc. or one of its affiliates and may not be copied, reproduced, transmitted, displayed, performed, distributed, rented, sublicensed, altered, or stored for subsequent use, in whole or in part in any manner, without the prior written consent of Disclosure Insight, Inc. Photocopying or electronic distribution of any of the accompanying material or contents without the prior written consent of Disclosure Insight, Inc. violates U.S. copyright law, and may be punishable by statutory damages of up to $150,000 per infringement, plus attorneys fees (17 USC 504 et. seq.). Without advance permission, illegal copying includes regular photocopying, faxing, excerpting, forwarding electronically, and sharing of online access. Disclosure Insight, D.I., D.I. Score, D.I. Rating, D.I. Profile, D.I. Database, D.I. Report, D.I. Watch List, D.I. Focus List, D.I. Mailbox, Better Disclosure for Better Decisions, 5 Years of Due Diligence in One Report, Assess the Risk. Achieve the Return., D.I. Favorites, and Just Because its Public Information Doesnt Mean its Public Knowledge are service/trademarks of Disclosure Insight, Inc. and are proprietary. Potential Conflicts of Interest Disclosure Insight, Inc. requires its employees and principals to adhere to the CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct regarding potential conflicts of interest. This includes prohibiting its employees and principals from trading in their own accounts in any manner which might be deemed in conflict with client subscribers. Further, and with few exceptions, Disclosure Insight, Inc. prohibits its employees and principals from trading of any kind in any individual public company securities, or derivatives thereof, on any company on which production of a new D.I. Report has commenced. Such prohibitions shall remain in place until either 5 days after the individual D.I. Report has been published or its production otherwise ceases. In addition, Disclosure Insight, Inc. prohibits its employees and principals from trading of any kind in any individual public company securities, or derivatives thereof, on any company on which we have received a response from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (or other regulatory authority) to one of our Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests which suggests the presence of an undisclosed SEC or other governmental investigation and/ or law enforcement activity. Such prohibitions on newly received FOIA data shall remain in place from when the material is received until either 5 days after it has been published or production on the data point otherwise ceases. On a severely limited basis, we will permit employees to engage in trading of the sort that would be deemed in conflict with this policy such as extreme financial hardship as defined by the CFA Institute Code of Ethics. Disclosure Insight, Inc. otherwise permits, and encourages, its employees to freely trade in any securities so long as such trading is not deemed as in conflict with this policy or client subscribers. We similarly place no holding period limits or restrictions
www.disclosureinsight.com
30
Disclosure Insight
D.I. Report
on such personal trading. This could, and often does, include trading in mutual funds, exchange traded funds (ETFs), and derivatives thereof which may include covered names as components of the overall funds and/or ETFs. Disclosure Insight, Inc. does not engage in investment banking activities or take any security positions, except those necessary for routine corporate treasury functions. ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES ARE AVAILABLE AT www.disclosureinsight.com
www.disclosureinsight.com
31
SECTOR: Technology
Reiterate B on 10/14/2011.
OVERVIEW
This stock receives a fundamental grade of "B" based on Validea's Guru Analysis system. "B" rated stocks pass the fundamental tests of at least one of our guru strategies, although they do not pass the top performing strategies required to receive an "A" grade. Stocks that receive this grade typically have mostly favorable fundamental attributes, although there are typically some minor flaws. For further details on our scoring system, please see the FAQ section at the end of this report. Validea's Guru System classifies this stock as both a growth and value stock given its PE Ratio of 11.8 and its historical EPS growth rate of 31.3%. This stock passes Validea's P/E Growth Investor strategy based on our interpretation of the published criteria of Peter Lynch with a score of 93%. The strategy looks for stocks that trade at a discount to their long-term earnings growth rates, which also show signs of financial strength.
ANALYSIS SUMMARY
Strategy Name Contrarian Investor Book/Market Investor Growth Investor Growth/Value Investor Low PE Investor P/E Growth Investor Value Investor Price/Sales Investor Patient Investor Momentum Investor
Based On Book By/About David Dreman Joseph Piotroski Martin Zweig James O'Shaughnessy John Neff Peter Lynch Benjamin Graham Kenneth Fisher Warren Buffett Validea
* Overall fundamental grade is based on a w eighted scoring system in w hich the strategies at the top of the table are more significant than those at the bottom (the strategies used to determine our "A" rated stocks are above the dividing line in the table and the strategies used to determine the "B" rated stocks are below ). Although all the strategies used in this report have exhibited market outperformance on a risk-adjusted basis, strategies at the top of the table have displayed superior historical risk-adjusted performance in our testing to those at the bottom.
32
COMPANY PROFILE
Harbin Electric, Inc. (Harbin Electric) is a holding company. It designs, develops, manufactures, supplies and services a range of electric motors, including linear motors, specialty micro-motors and industrial rotary motors. It sells its products in China, but also to certain international markets. The Company operates four manufacturing facilities in China: Harbin Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd. (Harbin Tech Full), Shanghai Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd. (Shanghai Tech Full), Weihai Tech Full Simo Motor Co., Ltd. (Weihai Tech Full) and Xi'an Tech Full Simo Motor Co., Ltd. (Xi'an Tech Full Simo). The Company offers three product lines: linear motors (LMs) and integrated systems, specialty micro-motors and industrial rotary motors. The Company offers a range of industrial rotary motors, including small, medium, and large-sized motors and some specialized motors, such as high/low voltage motors and speed control motors. The Company acquired Xi'an Tech Full Simo in October 2009.
RATING HISTORY
Old Rating C B C B C
New Rating B C B C B
METHODOLOGY
This report provides a detailed analysis of HRBN based on the publicly disclosed methodologies of Wall Street legends. Validea is a premier online independent research provider. The firm's Guru Stock Report unites the quantitative strategies of the world's most successful investors, including names like Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, Martin Zweig and many others. Rooted in fundamental analysis and built on core investing principles, each report contains an in-depth description of the guru methodologies, as interpreted by Validea, and examines the stock using multiple approaches (i.e. value, growth, momentum). Using these strategies, Validea has created a ratings scale that is dynamic and weights more heavily the best performing approaches as identified and tracked by Validea. Each stock is scored using a five point rating system that assesses the security's investment prospects. Ratings range from A to F (correlates to Strong Buy to Sell), with A and B stocks having the best potential for long-term market outperformance. Stocks that score highly based on the best performing riskadjusted guru strategies or are favored by multiple top performing guru strategies are given a higher rating versus their counterparts. Validea's ratings are limited to companies that exhibit profitability. Reports are updated every two weeks, or sooner in the event of an earnings report, other significant news, or a major stock price change, in an effort to provide timely and valuable analysis and coverage.
33
GURU ANALYSIS OF: HARBIN ELECTRIC, INC. (HRBN) P/E GROWTH INVESTOR
BASED ON: Peter Lynch SCORE:
93%
STYLE: Growth/Value
Perhaps the greatest mutual fund manager of all-time, Lynch guided Fidelity Investment's Magellan Fund to a 29.2 percent average annual return from 1977 until his retirement in 1990, almost doubling the S&P 500's 15.8 percent yearly return over that time. Lynch's common sense approach and quick wit made him one of the most quoted investors on Wall Street. ("Go for a business that any idiot can run -- because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it," is one of his many pearls of wisdom.) Lynch's bestseller One Up on Wall Street is something of a "stocks for the everyman/everywoman", breaking his approach down into easy-to-understand concepts. Investment Strategy Lynch's approach centers on a variable that he is famous for developing: The price/earnings/growth ratio, or "PEG". The PEG divides a stock's price/earnings ratio by its historic growth rate to find growth stocks selling on the cheap. Lynch's rationale: The faster a firm is growing, the higher the P/E multiple you should be willing to pay for its stock. Lynch is known for saying that investors can get a leg up on Wall Street by "buying what they know", but that's really just a starting point for him; his strategy goes far beyond investing in a restaurant chain you like or a retailer whose clothes you buy. Along with the PEG, he focused on fundamental variables like the debt/equity ratio, earnings per share growth rate, inventory/sales ratio, and free cash flow. It's important to note that Lynch used different criteria for different categories of stocks, with the three main categories being "fast-growers" (stocks with EPS growth rates of at least 20 percent per year); "stalwarts" (stocks with growth rates between 10 and 20 percent and multi-billiondollar sales); and "slow-growers" (those with single-digit growth rates and high dividend payouts). He also used special criteria for financial stocks.
P/E/GROWTH RATIO: [PASS] The investor should examine the P/E (11.78) relative to the growth rate (31.29%), based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, for a company. This is a quick way of determining the fairness of the price. In this particular case, the P/E/G ratio for HRBN (0.38) is very favorable.
SALES AND P/E RATIO: [NEUTRAL] For companies with sales greater than $1 billion, this methodology likes to see that the P/E ratio remain below 40. Large companies can have a difficult time maintaining a growth rate high enough to support a P/E above this threshold. HRBN, whose sales are $450.8 million, is not considered large enough to apply the P/E ratio analysis. However, an investor can analyze the P/E ratio relative to the EPS growth rate.
INVENTORY TO SALES: [PASS] When inventories increase faster than sales, it is a red flag. However an increase of up to 5% is considered bearable if all other ratios appear attractive. Inventory to sales for HRBN was 33.56% last year, while for this year it is 14.73%. Since inventory to sales has decreased from last year by -18.82%, HRBN passes this test.
EPS GROWTH RATE: [PASS] This methodology favors companies that have several years of fast earnings growth, as these companies have a proven formula for growth that in many cases can continue many more years. This methodology likes to see earnings growth in the range of 20% to 50%, as earnings growth over 50% may be unsustainable. The EPS growth rate for HRBN is 31.3%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, which is acceptable.
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: [PASS] This methodology would consider the Debt/Equity ratio for HRBN (27.17%) to be acceptable (equity is three to ten times debt). This ratio is one quick way to determine the financial strength of the company.
34
FREE CASH FLOW: [NEUTRAL] The Free Cash Flow/Price ratio, though not a requirement, is considered a bonus if it is above 35%. A positive Cash Flow (the higher the better) separates a wonderfully reliable investment from a shaky one. This methodology prefers not to invest in companies that rely heavily on capital spending. This ratio for HRBN (10.53%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of the stock. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.
NET CASH POSITION: [NEUTRAL] Another bonus for a company is having a Net Cash/Price ratio above 30%. Lynch defines net cash as cash and marketable securities minus long term debt. According to this methodology, a high value for this ratio dramatically cuts down on the risk of the security. The Net Cash/Price ratio for HRBN (7.07%) is too low to add to the attractiveness of this company. Keep in mind, however, that it does not adversely affect the company as it is a bonus criteria.
35
VALUE INVESTOR
BASED ON: Benjamin Graham
SCORE:
57%
The Value Investor strategy is based on the book "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham. Widely recognized as the father of securities analysis, Benjamin Graham argued for investing in stocks that were significantly undervalued relative to their intrinsic worth, which he measured principally by their future earnings potential. Defensive investors who followed his advice, he said, would enjoy an invaluable "margin of safety" in their investment activities. Graham's defensive investor strategy is considered by many to be the ultimate value strategy and has stood the test of time more than perhaps any strategy ever created.
SECTOR: [FAIL] HRBN is in the Technology sector, which is one sector that this methodology avoids. Technology and financial stocks were considered too risky to invest in when this methodology was published. At that time they were not the driving force of the market as they are today. Although this methodology would avoid HRBN, we will provide the rest of the analysis, as we feel times have changed.
SALES: [PASS] The investor must select companies of "adequate size". This includes companies with annual sales greater than $340 million. HRBN's sales of $450.8 million, based on trailing 12 month sales, pass this test.
CURRENT RATIO: [PASS] The current ratio must be greater than or equal to 2. Companies that meet this criterion are typically financially secure and defensive. HRBN's current ratio of 2.18 passes the test.
LONG-TERM DEBT IN RELATION TO NET CURRENT ASSETS: [PASS] For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). Companies that meet this criterion display one of the attributes of a financially secure organization. The long-term debt for HRBN is $50.5 million, while the net current assets are $163.7 million. HRBN passes this test.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Companies must increase their EPS by at least 30% over a ten-year period and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last 5 years. We have data for 9 years, and have adjusted this requirement to be a 27% gain over the 9 year period. Companies with this type of growth tend to be financially secure and have proven themselves over time. HRBN's EPS growth over that period of 1,197.1% passes the EPS growth test.
P/E RATIO: [FAIL] The Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio, based on the greater of the current PE or the PE using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "moderate", which this methodology states is not greater than 15. Stocks with moderate P/Es are more defensive by nature. HRBN's P/E of 15.00 (using the 3 year PE) fails this test.
PRICE/BOOK RATIO: [FAIL] The Price/Book ratio must also be reasonable. That is, the Price/Book multiplied by P/E cannot be greater than 22. HRBN's Price/Book ratio is 1.50, while the P/E is 15.00. HRBN fails the Price/Book test.
36
MOMENTUM INVESTOR
BASED ON: Validea
SCORE:
50%
STYLE: Growth/Momentum
The Momentum Investor strategy is based on the book "How To Make Money In Stocks". In that book, a massive study was described that identified the common fundamental, technical and chart pattern characteristics of the 500 best growth stocks over the past 30 years. The Momentum Investor strategy seeks to identify the "very best" companies that have high Relative Strength and buy them at the "right" time. This methodology is based on the general principal that stocks are priced at what they are worth at the time. Low priced stocks and stocks selling at their low are low for a reason, and you want to avoid them. Instead, you want to pick stocks that are selling near or at their high.
QUARTERLY EPS CHANGE (THIS QUARTER VS. SAME QUARTER LAST YEAR): [PASS] Although HRBN's EPS growth for this quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier (-32.93%) is below the minimum 18% that this methodology likes to see, earnings have been accelerating over the past 4 quarters. This is a very positive sign, and therefore HRBN passes the first requirement.
ANNUAL EARNINGS GROWTH: [PASS] This methodology looks for annual earnings growth above 18%, but prefers higher than 25%. HRBN's annual earnings growth rate over the past five years of 30.04% passes this test.
EARNINGS CONSISTENCY: [FAIL] According to this methodology, each year's EPS numbers should be better than the previous year's. One dip is allowed, but the following year's earnings should be a new high. HRBN, whose annual EPS before extraordinary items for the last 5 years (from earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 1.01, 0.91, 1.19, 0.76, 2.46, fails this criterion, as more than 1 dip is unacceptable to the methodology.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH RATE RELATIVE TO GROWTH IN THE LATEST 2 QUARTERS: [FAIL] This methodology looks unfavorably at any company whose earnings growth in the latest 2 quarters has been less than half of the long-term earnings growth rate. HRBN fails this criterion, as earnings growth in the 2 most recent quarters (-48.5% for Q6 to Q2 and -32.9% for Q5 to Q1) have slowed substantially to a point less than its long-term growth rate of 30.0%.
CURRENT PRICE LEVEL: [PASS] Investors should keep an eye open for stocks that are trading within 15% of their 52-week highs, as the stock price is potentially close to breaking out to a new high on above average volume. HRBN's current stock price ($22.03) is within 15% of the 52-week high ($23.46). This a positive sign.
4 MONTH S&P RELATIVE STRENGTH LINE: [PASS] This methodology likes to see confirmation from this indicator when buying as a sign of a company's recently strong momentum. It shows a company's weekly performance in comparison to the overall market, as measured by the S&P 500. Look for a general upward trend in weekly relative strength, as the best stocks usually act better than the overall market. HRBN's relative strength trend has been increasing over the last 4 months. This type of price action is favorable.
PRICE PERFORMANCE COMPARED TO ALL OTHER STOCKS: [FAIL] A company's weighted relative strength, which is the stock's price performance compared with the overall market over the past year, should be no less than 80, although above 90 is preferred. As long as all the other numbers are in check, these companies should continue to perform well over the next 3 months. HRBN's relative strength of 54 is too low to pass the test.
37
Make sure that a company's industry is attractive by confirming that at least one other company in the industry has a relative strength above 80. There is confirmation in HRBN's industry (Electronic Instr. & Controls), as there are 22 companies that have a relative strength at or above 80.
LOOK FOR LEADING INDUSTRIES: [PASS] Investors should consider stocks in top performing industries. Look at the number of companies within an industry that have a weighted relative strength above 80, and choose only the top 30% of those industries from which to select stocks. In another method, look for industries with the most stocks making new 52-week highs. HRBN's industry (Electronic Instr. & Controls) is currently one of the top performing industries, thus passing the criterion.
DECREASING LONG-TERM DEBT/EQUITY: [PASS] Companies who have consistently cut debt over the last 3 years, or who have a Debt/Equity ratio less than 2, are looked at favorably. HRBN, which has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.11, passes this test.
RETURN ON EQUITY: [FAIL] Preferred companies must have a ROE of at least 17%. HRBN's ROE of 14.1% is below the minimum 17% that this methodology likes to see, and therefore fails the criterion.
SHARES OUTSTANDING: [NEUTRAL] Shares outstanding should be less than 30 million, as fewer shares mean bigger price jumps when demand surges. However, there is no penalty for a large number of shares outstanding as long as all the other parameters are met. Although HRBN exceeds the preferred level with shares outstanding of 31 million, the stock still passes the test.
INSIDER OWNERSHIP: [PASS] Companies with the best prospects have strong insider ownership, which we define as 15% or more. When there is strong insider ownership, management is more likely to act in the best interest of the company, as their interests are right in line with that of the shareholders. Insiders own 34.38% of HRBN's stock. Management's representation is large enough and passes this test.
INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP: [PASS] Some institutional ownership is preferred, but there is no indication that a large number of institutions is too many. Institutions own 37.05% of HRBN's stock. Because there is some institutional ownership present, HRBN passes this test.
38
PRICE/SALES INVESTOR
BASED ON: Kenneth Fisher
SCORE:
48%
STYLE: Growth/Value
The Price/Sales Investor strategy is based on the book "Super Stocks" written by Kenneth Fisher. Fisher is a money manager, best-selling author and long-time Forbes columnist who wowed Wall Street in the early 1980s when his book first popularized the idea of analyzing price-to-sales ratios (PSR) as a means of identifying attractive stocks. The strategy looks for stocks whose low price-to-sales ratios are accompanied by strong earnings growth, little debt, and positive free cash flow.
PRICE/SALES RATIO: [FAIL] The prospective company should have a low Price/Sales ratio. Non-cyclical companies with Price/Sales ratios greater than 1.5 and less than 3 should not be purchased. HRBN's P/S ratio of 1.54 based on trailing 12 month sales, is above 1.5. If you are currently holding this stock, the P/S ratio is O.K., but if you are thinking about purchasing it, the stock would fail this methodology's first criterion.
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: [PASS] Less debt equals less risk according to this methodology. HRBN's Debt/Equity of 27.17% is acceptable, thus passing the test.
PRICE/RESEARCH RATIO: [FAIL] This methodology considers Technology and Medical companies with low Price/Research ratios to be attractive. This ratio indicates how much a market values a company's Research and Development (R&D). Companies with Price/Research ratios greater than 15 should never be purchased, because they either spend too little on R&D or are extremely overvalued. HRBN's Price/Research ratio of 202.34 is considered extremely unfavorable.
Price/Sales Ratio: [FAIL] The Price/Sales ratio is the most important variable according to this methodology. The prospective company should have a low Price/Sales ratio. HRBN's Price/Sales ratio of 1.54 does not pass this criterion.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH RATE: [PASS] This methodology looks for companies that have an inflation adjusted EPS growth rate greater than 15%. HRBN's inflation adjusted EPS growth rate of 28.97% passes this test.
FREE CASH PER SHARE: [PASS] This methodology looks for companies that have a positive free cash per share. Companies should have enough free cash available to sustain three years of losses. This is based on the premise that companies without cash will soon be out of business. HRBN's free cash per share of 2.32 passes this criterion.
THREE YEAR AVERAGE NET PROFIT MARGIN: [PASS] This methodology looks for companies that have an average net profit margin of 5% or greater over a three year period. HRBN's three year net profit margin, which averages 15.94%, passes this criterion.
39
GROWTH INVESTOR
BASED ON: Martin Zweig
SCORE:
46%
STYLE: Growth
The Growth Investor strategy is based on the book "Winning on Wall Street", by Martin Zweig. Zweig is a renowned money manager, newsletter writer and frequent guest on the PBS television series "Wall Street Week." The strategy searches for stocks that meet a long host of earnings criteria. Quarterly earnings, for example, should be positive and growing faster than they were (a) a year ago, (b) in the preceding three quarters, and (c) over the preceding three years. Annual earnings should be up for at least the past five years. And sales should be growing as fast as or faster than earnings, since cost-cutting and other non-revenue-producing measures alone can't support earnings growth forever.
P/E RATIO: [PASS] The P/E of a company must be greater than 5 to eliminate weak companies, but not more than 3 times the current Market P/E because the situation is much too risky, and never greater than 43. HRBN's P/E is 11.78, based on trailing 12 month earnings, while the current market PE is 15.00. Therefore, it passes the first test.
REVENUE GROWTH IN RELATION TO EPS GROWTH: [PASS] Revenue Growth must not be substantially less than earnings growth. For earnings to continue to grow over time they must be supported by a comparable or better sales growth rate and not just by cost cutting or other non-sales measures. HRBN's revenue growth is 81.41%, while it's earnings growth rate is 31.29%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates. Therefore, HRBN passes this criterion.
SALES GROWTH RATE: [PASS] Another important issue regarding sales growth is that the rate of quarterly sales growth is rising. To evaluate this, the change from this quarter last year to the present quarter (24.6%) must be examined, and then compared to the previous quarter last year compared to the previous quarter (-1.6%) of the current year. Sales growth for the prior must be greater than the latter. For HRBN this criterion has been met.
The earnings numbers of a company should be examined from various different angles. Three of these angles are stability in the trend of earnings, earnings persistence, and earnings acceleration. To evaluate stability, the stock has to pass the following four criteria.
CURRENT QUARTER EARNINGS: [PASS] The first of these criteria is that the current EPS be positive. HRBN's EPS ($0.55) pass this test.
QUARTERLY EARNINGS ONE YEAR AGO: [PASS] The EPS for the quarter one year ago must be positive. HRBN's EPS for this quarter last year ($0.82) pass this test.
POSITIVE EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR CURRENT QUARTER: [FAIL] The growth rate of the current quarter's earnings compared to the same quarter a year ago must also be positive. HRBN's growth rate of -32.93% fails this test.
EARNINGS GROWTH RATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL QUARTERS: [FAIL] Compare the earnings growth rate of the past four quarters with long-term EPS growth rate. Earnings growth in the past 4 quarters should be at least half of the long-term EPS growth rate. A stock should not be considered if it posted several quarters of skimpy earnings. HRBN had 3 quarters of skimpy growth in the last 2 years.
This strategy looks at the rate which earnings grow and evaluates this rate of growth from different angles. The 4 tests immediately following are detailed below.
40
EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN PRIOR 3 QUARTERS: [FAIL] If the growth rate of the prior three quarter's earnings, 11.86%, (versus the same three quarters a year earlier) is greater than the growth rate of the current quarter earnings, -32.93%, (versus the same quarter one year ago) then the stock fails, with one exception: if the growth rate in earnings between the current quarter and the same quarter one year ago is greater than 30%, then the stock would pass. The growth rate over this period for HRBN is -32.9%, and it would therefore fail this test.
EPS GROWTH FOR CURRENT QUARTER MUST BE GREATER THAN THE HISTORICAL GROWTH RATE: [FAIL] The EPS growth rate for the current quarter, -32.93% must be greater than or equal to the historical growth which is 31.29%. Since this is not the case HRBN would therefore fail this test.
EARNINGS PERSISTENCE: [FAIL] Companies must show persistent yearly earnings growth. To fulfill this requirement a company's earnings must increase each year for a five year period. HRBN, whose annual EPS growth before extraordinary items for the previous 5 years (from the earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 1.01, 0.91, 1.19, 0.76, and 2.46, fails this test.
LONG-TERM EPS GROWTH: [PASS] One final earnings test required is that the long-term earnings growth rate must be at least 15% per year. HRBN's long-term growth rate of 31.29%, based on the average of the 3, 4 and 5 year historical eps growth rates, passes this test.
TOTAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIO: [PASS] A final criterion is that a company must not have a high level of debt. A high level of total debt, due to high interest expenses, can have a very negative effect on earnings if business moderately turns down. If a company does have a high level, an investor may want to avoid this stock altogether. HRBN's Debt/Equity (27.17%) is not considered high relative to its industry (46.62%) and passes this test.
41
A - "A" rated stocks receive a score of 90% from at least one of our top tier guru strategies. Our top tier
strategies are based on our interpretation of the published writings of David Dreman, Joseph Piotroski, James P. O'Shaughnessy, John Neff and Martin Zweig. Stocks in this category exhibit the fundamental criteria that have proven most predictive of future stock performance in our historical testing.
B - "B" rated stocks receive a score of 90% from at least one of our second tier guru strategies. Our second
tier strategies are based on our interpretation of the published writings of Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, Kenneth Fisher and Benjamin Graham. Stocks in this category exhibit the fundamental criteria that is sought by these strategies. These strategies have all exhibited strong risk-adjusted performance in our historical testing.
C - "C" rated stocks have an average score from all of our strategies of at least 25%. Stocks in this category
typically exhibit elements of fundamental strength, but also have some noticeable weaknesses.
D - "D" rated stocks have an average score from all of our strategies between 20% and 25%. Stocks in this
grouping typically have several major fundamental weaknesses that would not be looked upon favorably by both value and growth investors.
F - "F" rated stocks have an average guru score from all of our strategies below 20%. Stocks in this grouping
typically have many major fundamental weaknesses that would eliminate them from any consideration by our guru strategies.
What do the individual guru scores mean? The scores for each strategy represent a weighted percentage of how well a particular stock meets a guru's criteria. Not all criteria are weighted equally and some of our strategies have criteria that are important enough to automatically result in a 0% score if they are failed. For example, in the Patient Investor strategy based on Warren Buffett, a stock will automatically fail if it does not meet the requirement of consistent earnings over the past 10 years. Is there any affiliation between Validea and the gurus that the strategies are based on? No, the names of individual investment advisors (i.e., the 'gurus') appearing in this report are for identification purposes of his/her methodology only, as derived by Validea.com from published sources, and are not intended to suggest or imply any affiliation with or endorsement or even agreement with our reports personally by such gurus, or any knowledge or approval by such persons of the content of this report.
42
DISCLAIMER:
The use of the name of a financial analyst, identified as a "guru" represents the interpretation by Validea of that person's key investment analysis principles, as derived from published sources. The use of a guru's name does not mean that he personally endorses, or even agrees with any of the representations made with respect to specific securities as derived by Validea from its interpretation of his or her investment methodology. Validea IS an information service for financial institutions, investors and traders. Validea IS NOT an investment advisor, hence it does not endorse or recommend any securities or other investments. The information in this report is not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Market prices and certain other information in this report have been carefully compiled from publicly available sources believed to be reliable and are for general informational purposes only. Accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein is not guaranteed and is not intended to be relied upon for transactional purposes. Neither Validea, its publishers, owners, investors, nor any of its data or content providers shall be liable for any errors or delays in the content, or for any actions, losses or damages, monetary or otherwise, taken in reliance of such information, judgments and opinions thereon. Fundamental data provided by Reuters Validea does not make markets in any of the securities mentioned in this report. Validea does not have investment banking relationships with the firm whose security is mentioned in this report, and in general, does not engage in Investment Banking activities/services. Validea and its employees may have long/short positions or holdings in the securities or other related investments of companies mentioned herein (if so, the holdings may, or may not be fully disclosed herein). Officers or Directors of Validea are not Directors or Officers of covered companies, and no-one at a covered company sits on the board of Validea. Neither Validea nor any of its employees own shares equal to one percent or more of the company, or any companies mentioned in this report. Contact Info: Validea.com For More Information: http://www.validea.com Email: info@validea.com
43
Key Data Ticker: HRBN 2010 Sales: 426,481,250 Major Industry: Machinery & Equipment Sub Industry: Miscellaneous Machinery & Equipment Country: United States Currency: U.S. Dollars Fiscal Year Ends: December Employees 4,430 Exchanges: NAS Share Type: Common
Harbin Electric, Inc. (Harbin Electric) is a holding company. It designs, develops, manufactures, supplies and services a range of electric motors, including linear motors, specialty micro-motors and industrial rotary motors. It sells its products in China, but also to certain international markets. The Company operates four manufacturing facilities in China: Harbin Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd. (Harbin Tech Full), Shanghai Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd. (Shanghai Tech Full), Weihai Tech Full Simo Motor Co., Ltd. (Weihai Tech Full) and Xi'an Tech Full Simo Motor Co., Ltd. (Xi'an Tech Full Simo). The Company offers three product lines: linear motors (LMs) and integrated systems, specialty micro-motors and industrial rotary motors. The Company offers a range of industrial rotary motors, including small, medium, and large-sized motors and some specialized motors, such as high/low voltage motors and speed control motors. The Company acquired Xi'an Tech Full Simo in October 2009. Stock Chart Officers Chairman & Chief Executive Tianfu Yang Chief Financial Officer Zedong Xu Executive Vice President & Secretary Christy Young Shue
Stock Price (9/23/2011): 19.90 Recent stock performance 1 Week -1.9% 4 Weeks 32.0% 13 Weeks 33.1% 52 Weeks 14.4% Earnings / Dividends (as of 6/30/2011) Earnings 0.55 1.88 Ratio Analysis Dividends 0.00 0.00
Market Capitalization: 625,539,943 Total Shares Outstanding: 31,434,168 Closely Held Shares: 10,642,882
44
Price / Earnings Ratio 10.59 Dividend Yield Price / Sales Ratio Price / Book Ratio 1.47 Payout Ratio
0.00% 0.00%
1.45 % Held by Insiders 33.86% Address Phone +86 86 451-8611-6757 Home Page http://www.harbinelectric.com
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
45
223 121 24 40 65
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (Figures in Millions of U.S. Dollars)
Harbin Electric currently has 4,430 employees. With sales of $426.48 million , this equates to sales of US$96,271 per employee. This is a great deal lower than the three comparable companies, which had sales between US$171,191 and US$258,571 per employee. Note that some of the figures stated herein could be distorted based on exact classification of employees and subcontractors. Sales Comparisons (Fiscal Year ending 2010) Company Harbin Electric American Railcar Industries, Inc. Year Ended Sales Sales Sales/ (mlns) Growth Emp (US$) Largest Region 91.0% 96,271 the United States (100.0%) 258,571 Taiwan (29.2%) 171,191 the United States (100.0%)
Kulicke And Soffa Industries, Inc. Sep 2010 762.784 238.7% Dec 2010 273.563 -35.4%
46
Cascade Corporation
30.4%
Recent Stock Performance For the 52 weeks ending 9/23/2011, the stock of this company was up 14.4% to $19.90. During the past 13 weeks, the stock has increased 33.1%. During the 12 months ending 6/30/2011, earnings per share totalled $1.88 per share. Thus, the Price / Earnings ratio is 10.59. These 12 month earnings are lower than the earnings per share achieved during the calendar year ending last December, when the company reported earnings of 2.46 per share. Earnings per share rose 219.5% in 2010 from 2009. Note that the earnings number Includes Or Excludes Extraordinary Charge Or Credit. This company is currently trading at 1.47 times sales. This is at a higher ratio than all three comparable companies, which are trading between 0.78 and 1.18 times sales. Harbin Electric is trading at 1.45 times book value. The company's price to book ratio is higher than that of all three comparable companies, which are trading between 1.07 and 1.36 times book value. Summary of company valuations (as of 9/23/2011). Company Harbin Electric Kulicke And Soffa Industries, Inc. American Railcar Industries, Inc. Cascade Corporation P/E 10.6 3.3 N/A 8.8 Price/ Price/ 52 Wk Book Sales Pr Chg 1.45 1.30 1.07 1.36 1.47 14.40% 0.78 37.12% 1.18 10.42% 0.91 7.20%
The market capitalization of this company is $625.54 million . The capitalization of the floating stock (i.e., that which is not closely held) is $413.75 million . Dividend Analysis This company has paid no dividends during the last 12 months. The company has not paid any dividends during the previous 6 calendar years. Profitability Analysis On the $426.48 million in sales reported by the company in 2010, the cost of goods sold totalled $281.10 million, or 65.9% of sales (i.e., the gross profit was 34.1% of sales). This gross profit margin is lower than the company achieved in 2009, when cost of goods sold totalled 63.6% of sales. The gross margin in 2010 was the lowest of the previous five years (in 2007, the gross margin had been as high as 51.2%). There was a wide variation in the gross profit margins at the three comparable companies, from 11.9% of sales to 46.3% of sales. The company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amorization (EBITDA) were $102.98 million, or 24.1% of sales. This EBITDA margin is worse than the company achieved in 2009, when the EBITDA margin was equal to 27.1% of sales. The three comparable companies had EBITDA margins that were all less (between 2.5% and 22.0%) than that achieved by Harbin Electric. In 2010, earnings before extraordinary items at Harbin Electric were $76.82 million, or 18.0% of sales. This profit margin is an improvement over the level the company achieved in 2009, when the profit margin was 8.8% of sales. The company's return on equity in 2010 was 23.3%. This was significantly better than the 11.2% return the company achieved in 2009. (Extraordinary items have been excluded). Profitability Comparison Gross Earns Profit EBITDA bef. Year Margin Margin extra 2010 2009 34.1% 36.4% 46.3% 11.9% 32.4% 24.1% 18.0% 27.1% 8.8% 22.0% 18.5% 2.5% -9.9% 13.8% 5.2%
Kulicke And Soffa Industries, Inc. 2010 American Railcar Industries, Inc. 2010 Cascade Corporation 2011
Inventory Analysis As of December 2010, the value of the company's inventory totalled $62.84 million. Since the cost of goods sold was $281.10 million for the year, the company had 82 days of inventory on hand (another way to look at this is to say that the company turned over its inventory 4.5 times per year). In terms of inventory turnover, this is a
47
significant improvement over December 2009, when the company's inventory was $74.91 million, equivalent to 193 days in inventory. Research and Development Research and Development Expenses at Harbin Electric in 2010 were $3.42 million, which is equivalent to 0.8% of sales. In 2009, Harbin Electric spent $2.09 million on R&D, which was 0.9% of sales. During each of the previous 3 years, the company has increased the amount of money it has spent on Research and Development (in 2007, Harbin Electric spent $1.06 million versus $3.42 million in 2010). Financial Position As of December 2010, the company's long term debt was $50.07 million and total liabilities (i.e., all monies owed) were $151.61 million. The long term debt to equity ratio of the company is 0.12. As of December 2010, the accounts receivable for the company were $87.75 million, which is equivalent to 75 days of sales. This is an improvement over the end of 2009, when Harbin Electric had 164 days of sales in accounts receivable. Financial Positions Company Harbin Electric LT Debt/ Days Days R&D/ Year Equity AR Inv. Sales 2010 0.12 0.31 0.89 0.17 75 94 55 59 82 0.8% 66 7.4% 76 0.0% 88 0.6%
Kulicke And Soffa Industries, Inc. 2010 American Railcar Industries, Inc. 2010 Cascade Corporation 2011
Copyright 2001-2011 The Winthrop Corporation Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved Important Legal Notice
THIS REPORT IS PROVIDED FOR GENERAL INFORMATION ONLY, IS NOT TO BE CONSIDERED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON FOR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY IS MADE REGARDING THE ACCURACY, RELIABILITY OR TIMELINESS OF THE CONTENT. THE REPORTS ARE COMPUTER GENERATED AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO PROGRAMMATIC AND/OR CONTENT ERRORS. VISITORS SHOULD VERIFY INFORMATION WITH OTHER RELIABLE SOURCES. THIS REPORT IS PROVIDED AS IS, WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR NON-INFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT WILL THE WINTHROP CORPORATION, WRIGHT INVESTORS' SERVICE, INC. OR ANY OF THEIR DATA PROVIDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, NO MATTER WHAT THE CAUSE. THE CONTENT OF THIS REPORT IS PROTECTED BY APPLICABLE COPYRIGHT LAWS. CONTENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED, DISTRIBUTED, MODIFIED OR FRAMED WITHOUT PRIOR WRITTEN PERMISSION.
48
SUMMARY ANALYSIS:
Per Share- U.S. Dollars
Price
Year
Value Ratios
Dividends
Market Price/ Price/ Price Earnings Book Dividend Last Ratio Ratio Yield 8.10 8.05 25.94 7.99 20.54 17.35 19.90 12.3 8.0 28.5 6.7 26.7 7.1 10.6 n/c 5.4 9.8 1.8 2.6 1.7 1.5
% Earned Growth
12 Month % Dividends Payout Per Ratio Share 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.0% 10,280.4% 10,280.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 68.1% 34.4% 26.5% 9.9% 23.8% n/a 68.1% 34.4% 26.5% 9.9%
(A): INCLUDES OR EXCLUDES EXTRAORDINARY CHARGE OR CREDIT - INCLUDES OR EXCLUDES EXTRAORDINARY CHARGE OR CREDIT, INCLS $.26 PRETAX CR & $.97 PRETAX CHG IN 2009 ($.04 PRETAX CHG DEC, $.16 PRETAX CR & $.38 PRETAX CHG SEP, $.55 PRETAX CHG JUN & $.10 PRETAX CR MAR), INCLS $.02 PRETAX CR & $.04 PRETAX CHG IN 2008 ($.04 PRETAX CHG DEC, $.01PRETAX CR SEP, NOM PRETAX CR JUN & $.01 PRETAX CR MAR), INCLS$.03 PRETAX CR IN DEC 2006 (B): YEAR END CHANGED FROM JUL IN 2004 (C): NAME CHANGED FROM TORCH EXECUTIVE SERVICES LTD (D): BASED ON FULLY DILUTED SHARES (E): A DEVELOPMENT STAGE COMPANY, A DEVELOPMENT STAGE COMPANY REFLECTS 1 MONTH OF DATA
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
49
SALES ANALYSIS:
After Tax Income before Extraordinary Charges and Credits Amount in thousands
Employees After Tax Sales Income Per Per Number Employee Employee 180 270 490 2,000 4,900 4,430 131,354 149,688 133,475 60,410 45,558 96,271 55,556 68,291 34,495 12,689 4,010 17,340
YearAmount to-year in Growth thousands n/c 70.9% 61.8% 84.7% 84.8% 91.0%
% of Sales
% of Sales
% of Sales
11,728 49.6% 20,089 49.7% 31,891 48.8% 70,702 58.5% 141,892 63.6% 281,102 65.9%
10,357 43.8% 21,554 53.3% 24,600 37.6% 38,899 32.2% 48,809 21.9% 109,030 25.6%
10,000 42.3% 18,439 45.6% 16,903 25.8% 25,379 21.0% 19,647 8.8%
76,815 18.0%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
50
PRICE ANALYSIS:
Quarter 2005 Jan - Mar Apr - Jun Jul - Sep Oct - Dec 2006 Jan - Mar Apr - Jun Jul - Sep Oct - Dec 2007 Jan - Mar Apr - Jun Jul - Sep Oct - Dec 2008 Jan - Mar Apr - Jun Jul - Sep Oct - Dec 2009 Jan - Mar Apr - Jun Jul - Sep Oct - Dec 2010 Jan - Mar Apr - Jun Jul - Sep Oct - Dec 2011 Jan - Mar Apr - Jun 9/23/2011
17.700 12.060 16.960 11.700 27.650 14.760 28.000 12.900 19.250 12.910 16.910 11.030 12.440 8.900 16.890 4.700 4.250 6.000
18.550 12.110 22.910 15.361 26.000 16.790 24.280 15.460 20.500 15.260 25.050 14.950 20.840 16.000 21.500 5.820
51
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
52
Dividends Per Share 12 Months % Dividends Change n/a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n/a n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c Quarterly Reported Dividends Q1 Mar. n/a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Q2 Jun. n/a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n/a Q3 Sep. n/a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n/a Q4 Dec. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n/a % Payout n/c 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% n/c
Quarterly Reported Earnings Q1 Mar. n/a n/a n/a 0.12 0.21 0.20 0.27 0.34 0.66 0.34 Q2 Jun. n/a n/a n/a 0.18 0.20 0.24 0.31 -0.21 0.82 0.55 Q3 Sep. n/a n/a n/a 0.19 0.23 0.26 0.34 -0.07 0.57 n/a Q4 Dec. n/a n/a 0.12 0.17 0.37 0.21 0.27 0.71 0.41 n/a
INCLUDES OR EXCLUDES EXTRAORDINARY CHARGE OR CREDIT - INCLUDES OR EXCLUDES EXTRAORDINARY CHARGE OR CREDIT, INCLS $.26 PRETAX CR & $.97 PRETAX CHG IN 2009 ($.04 PRETAX CHG DEC, $.16 PRETAX CR & $.38 PRETAX CHG SEP, $.55 PRETAX CHG JUN & $.10 PRETAX CR MAR), INCLS $.02 PRETAX CR & $.04 PRETAX CHG IN 2008 ($.04 PRETAX CHG DEC, $.01PRETAX CR SEP, NOM PRETAX CR JUN & $.01 PRETAX CR MAR), INCLS$.03 PRETAX CR IN DEC 2006
(B): (C): (D): (E):
YEAR END CHANGED FROM JUL IN 2004 NAME CHANGED FROM TORCH EXECUTIVE SERVICES LTD BASED ON FULLY DILUTED SHARES A DEVELOPMENT STAGE COMPANY, A DEVELOPMENT STAGE COMPANY REFLECTS 1 MONTH OF DATA
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
53
Electric, Inc.
2009 2008 2007 2006
Figures are expressed as Percent of Total Assets. Total Assets are in millions of U.S. Dollars.
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Assets Total Assets Cash & Short Term Investments Cash Short Term Investments Receivables (Net) Inventories -Total Raw Materials Work in Process Finished Goods Progress Payments & Other Prepaid Expenses Other Current Assets Current Assets - Total Long Term Receivables Investment in Associated Companies Other Investments Property Plant and Equipment - Gross Accumulated Depreciation Property Plant and Equipment Net Other Assets Deferred Charges
2010
574.3 17.4%
531.0 18.2%
235.5 20.8%
132.6 34.3%
93.0 72.4%
15.3% 10.9% 1.5% 3.6% 6.2% -0.4% 2.8% 0.4% 46.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 32.2% 2.1% 30.1% 23.1% 0.1%
18.9% 14.1% 2.2% 5.4% 8.2% -1.7% 2.2% 0.0% 53.4% 0.0% 0.0%
13.6% 9.3% 1.1% 3.4% 4.8% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 45.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
17.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 55.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 19.1% 1.1% 18.0% 25.8% 1.7%
9.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 83.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.9% 9.9% 6.6% 3.0%
54
Tangible Other Assets Intangible Other Assets Total Assets Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Accounts Payable Short Term Debt & Current Portion of Long Term Debt Accrued Payroll Income Taxes Payable Dividends Payable Other Current Liabilities Current Liabilities - Total Long Term Debt Long Term Debt Excluding Capitalized Leases Capitalized Lease Obligations Provision for Risks and Charges Deferred Income Deferred Taxes Deferred Taxes - Credit Deferred Taxes - Debit Deferred Tax Liability in Untaxed Reserves Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Non-Equity Reserves Minority Interest
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
Preferred Stock Preferred Stock Issued for ESOP ESOP Guarantees Preferred Issued Common Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
56
Electric, Inc.
2007 2006
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Assets Total Assets Cash & Short Term Investments Cash Short Term Investments Receivables (Net) Inventories -Total Raw Materials Work in Process Finished Goods Progress Payments & Other Prepaid Expenses Other Current Assets Current Assets - Total Long Term Receivables Investment in Associated Companies Other Investments Property Plant and Equipment - Gross Accumulated Depreciation Property Plant and Equipment Net Other Assets Deferred Charges
2010
2009
2008
8.2% 3.5%
125.5% 97.1%
77.5% 7.4%
42.7% -32.4%
274.9% 898.0%
35.6%
232.0%
99.2%
112.3% 20,275.7%
-5.1%
166.3%
44.9% -100.0%
-5.4%
365.5%
0.0% 13.8% 94.6% 10.7% 45.1% 38.3% 66.0% 109.4% 64.7% 175.3% -78.5% 286.6% 101.1% 297.9% -3.1% -24.5% 152.8% 83.0% 158.8% 460.5% -19.7% 21.6% 76.5% 18.5% 1,722.6%
57
Tangible Other Assets Intangible Other Assets Total Assets Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Accounts Payable Short Term Debt & Current Portion of Long Term Debt Accrued Payroll Income Taxes Payable Dividends Payable Other Current Liabilities Current Liabilities - Total Long Term Debt Long Term Debt Excluding Capitalized Leases Capitalized Lease Obligations Provision for Risks and Charges Deferred Income Deferred Taxes Deferred Taxes - Credit Deferred Taxes - Debit Deferred Tax Liability in Untaxed Reserves Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Non-Equity Reserves Minority Interest
77.5% 398.3%
42.7% 153.8%
274.9% 252.0%
-0.3%
292.7%
149.8%
50.7%
-67.0% -16.0%
-28.8% 196.6%
-40.1% 26.7%
-86.6%
58
Preferred Stock Preferred Stock Issued for ESOP ESOP Guarantees Preferred Issued Common Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 27.5% 8.2% 88.5% 125.5% 106.4% 77.5% 87.9% 42.7% 83.0% 274.9%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
59
Electric, Inc.
2008 2007 2006
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Assets Total Assets Cash & Short Term Investments Cash Short Term Investments Receivables (Net) Inventories -Total Raw Materials Work in Process Finished Goods Progress Payments & Other Prepaid Expenses Other Current Assets Current Assets - Total Long Term Receivables Investment in Associated Companies Other Investments Property Plant and Equipment - Gross Accumulated Depreciation Property Plant and Equipment Net Other Assets Deferred Charges
2010
2009
313.3 71.6
203.4 53.0
97.2 33.7
50.1 23.9
50.5 32.6 4.9 11.6 18.3 -2.2 6.7 0.5 161.9 0.0 0.0
34.7 20.3 3.2 7.5 11.4 -1.8 3.6 0.0 111.5 0.0 0.0
14.6 5.3 0.8 1.8 2.6 0.0 1.2 0.0 54.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
8.2 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.0 33.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.7 0.5 8.2 8.1 1.0
60
Tangible Other Assets Intangible Other Assets Total Assets Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Accounts Payable Short Term Debt & Current Portion of Long Term Debt Accrued Payroll Income Taxes Payable Dividends Payable Other Current Liabilities Current Liabilities - Total Long Term Debt Long Term Debt Excluding Capitalized Leases Capitalized Lease Obligations Provision for Risks and Charges Deferred Income Deferred Taxes Deferred Taxes - Credit Deferred Taxes - Debit Deferred Tax Liability in Untaxed Reserves Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Non-Equity Reserves Minority Interest
97.2 2.2
50.1 0.5
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
Preferred Stock Preferred Stock Issued for ESOP ESOP Guarantees Preferred Issued Common Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
62
Electric, Inc.
2010 426.5 2009 223.2 2008 120.8 2007 65.4 2006 40.4
Figures are expressed as Percent of Net Sales or Revenues. Net Sales or Revenues are in millions of U.S. Dollars.
Fiscal Year Net Sales or Revenues Cost of Goods Sold Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization Gross Income Selling, General & Administrative Expenses Other Operating Expenses Operating Expenses - Total Operating Income Extraordinary Credit - Pretax Extraordinary Charge - Pretax Non-Operating Interest Income Reserves - Increase/Decrease Pretax Equity in Earnings Other Income/Expense - Net Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization (EBITDA) Earnings before Interest & Taxes(EBIT) Interest Expense on Debt Interest Capitalized Pretax Income Income Taxes Minority Interest Equity in Earnings After Tax Other Income/Expense Discontinued Operations Net Income before Extraordinary Items/Preferred Dividends
65.9% 63.6% 58.5% 48.8% 49.7% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 1.6% 1.6%
31.8% 34.3% 39.3% 49.6% 48.6% 9.9% 0.0% 9.2% 10.8% 13.3% 14.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
78.1% 75.0% 71.5% 63.7% 65.4% 21.9% 25.0% 28.5% 36.3% 34.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 5.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1.3% -1.6%
25.6% 21.9% 32.2% 37.6% 53.3% 23.3% 19.7% 30.0% 36.0% 51.7% 1.2% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 5.3% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0%
22.1% 13.9% 24.7% 25.8% 45.6% 3.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 3.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Extraordinary Items & Gain/Loss Sale of Assets Preferred Dividend Requirements Net Income after Preferred Dividends - available to Common
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
64
Electric, Inc.
2008 84.7% 2007 61.8% 58.7% 62.0% 65.0% 2006 70.9% 71.3% 86.6% 70.1%
Fiscal Year Net Sales or Revenues Cost of Goods Sold Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization Gross Income Selling, General & Administrative Expenses Other Operating Expenses Operating Expenses - Total Operating Income Extraordinary Credit - Pretax Extraordinary Charge - Pretax Non-Operating Interest Income Reserves - Increase/Decrease Pretax Equity in Earnings Other Income/Expense - Net Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization (EBITDA) Earnings before Interest & Taxes(EBIT) Interest Expense on Debt Interest Capitalized Pretax Income Income Taxes Minority Interest Equity in Earnings After Tax Other Income/Expense Discontinued Operations
2010 91.0% 98.1% 104.4% 77.1% 105.6% 100.0% 99.0% 67.1% -86.2%
2009 84.8%
57.8% 69.4%
93.1% 40.4%
-4.0% 170.2%
3.5% 72.3%
76.9%
-8.3%
84.4%
65
Net Income before Extraordinary Items/Preferred Dividends Extraordinary Items & Gain/Loss Sale of Assets Preferred Dividend Requirements Net Income after Preferred Dividends available to Common
291.0%
-22.6%
50.1%
-8.3%
84.4%
291.0%
-22.6%
50.1%
-8.3%
84.4%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
66
Electric, Inc.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 175.3 94.7 50.1 25.9 109.1 55.3 26.9 12.7 3.8 1.9 0.9 0.4
Fiscal Year Net Sales or Revenues Cost of Goods Sold Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization Gross Income Selling, General & Administrative Expenses Other Operating Expenses Operating Expenses - Total Operating Income Extraordinary Credit - Pretax Extraordinary Charge - Pretax Non-Operating Interest Income Reserves - Increase/Decrease Pretax Equity in Earnings Other Income/Expense - Net Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization (EBITDA) Earnings before Interest & Taxes(EBIT) Interest Expense on Debt Interest Capitalized Pretax Income Income Taxes Minority Interest Equity in Earnings After Tax Other Income/Expense Discontinued Operations Net Income before Extraordinary Items/Preferred Dividends Extraordinary Items & Gain/Loss Sale of Assets
62.4 37.5 22.2 12.7 18.1 0.0 9.9 0.0 5.8 0.0 3.2 0.0
131.0 67.1 33.6 16.4 44.3 27.6 16.4 0.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 9.5
48.6 28.8 44.8 26.9 6.8 0.0 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.0
67
38.1 21.2 15.0 5.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Preferred Dividend Requirements Net Income after Preferred Dividends - available to Common
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0 9.1
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
68
Electric, Inc.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Currency figures are in millions of U.S. Dollars. Year to year % changes pertain to reported Balance Sheet values.
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Total Capital Percent of Total Capital Short Term Debt Long Term Debt Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Minority Interest Preferred Stock Retained Earnings Common Equity Total Capital Year to Year Net Changes Short Term Debt Long Term Debt Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Minority Interest Preferred Stock Retained Earnings Common Equity Total Capital Year to Year Percent Changes Short Term Debt Long Term Debt
12/31/2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 472.8 354.9 208.3 117.7 73.6
-44.2% 1,037.7%
Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Minority Interest Preferred Stock Retained Earnings Common Equity Total Capital Total Liabilities & Common Equity Total Liabilities Net Change in Liabilities as % of Total Liabilities Common Equity Net Change in Common Equity as % of Common Equity Cash Flow Operating Activities Financing Activities Investing Activities
-28.8% 196.6%
-40.1% 26.7%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
70
Accounting Ratios: Harbin Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Receivables Turnover Receivables - Number of Days Inventory Turnover Inventory - Number of Days Gross Property, Plant & Equipment Turnover Net Property, Plant & Equipment Turnover Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization % of Gross Property, Plant & Equipment Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization Year to Year Change Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization Year to Year % Change
Electric, Inc.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 12/31/2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 4.9 80.4 4.1 89.4 2.3 2.5 2.2 108.1 2.9 124.6 1.4 1.4 3.8 83.9 5.8 63.3 1.2 1.3 2.8 90.5 20.2 18.1 2.6 2.7 4.5 79.0 20.9 17.5 4.0 4.4
5.2%
2.9%
2.7%
4.3%
6.6%
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
104.4%
79.1%
145.2%
62.0%
86.6%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
71
Electric, Inc.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Figures are expressed as the ratio of Net Sales. Net Sales are in millions of U.S. Dollars.
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Net Sales Cash & Cash Equivalents Short-Term Investments Accounts Receivable Inventories Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Total Long Term Receivables & Investments Long Term Receivables Investments in Associated Companies Other Investments Property, Plant & Equipment Gross Accumulated Depreciation Property Plant & Equipment Net Other Assets Total Assets
12/31/2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 426.5 23.4% 223.2 43.2% 120.8 40.5% 65.4 69.6% 40.4 166.6%
20.6% 14.7% 0.6% 63.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 2.8% 40.6% 31.1% 134.7%
36.0% 3.9% 0.0% 112.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 38.7% 2.2% 36.5% 52.3% 202.8%
22.0% 1.4% 0.0% 192.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.8% 2.0% 22.8% 15.1% 230.0%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
72
Fixed Charges Coverage: Harbin Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date EBIT/Total Interest Expense EBIT/Net Interest EBIT/(Total Interest Exp + Pfd Div) EBIT/Dividends on Common Shares EBIT/(Dividends on Common + Pfd) EBITDA/Total Interest Expense EBITDA/Net Interest EBITDA/(Total Interest Exp + Pfd Div) EBITDA/Dividends on Com Shares EBITDA/(Dividends on Com + Pfd)
Electric, Inc.
2009 2008 2007 2006
2010
12/31/2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 19.1 22.2 19.1 3.4 3.6 3.4 293.7 293.7 21.0 24.3 21.0 3.7 4.0 3.7 325.2 325.2 6.1 7.0 6.1 3.7 3.7 3.7 8.8 8.8 8.8 5.7 6.6 5.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 8.5 8.5 8.5
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
73
Leverage Analysis: Harbin Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Long Term Debt % of EBIT Long Term Debt % of EBITDA Long Term Debt % of Total Assets Long Term Debt % of Total Capital Long Term Debt % of Com Equity Total Debt % of EBIT Total Debt % of EBITDA Total Debt % of Total Assets Total Debt % of Total Capital Total Debt % of Total Capital & Short Term Debt Total Debt % of Common Equity Minority Interest % of EBIT Minority Interest % of EBITDA Minority Interest % of Total Assets Minority Interest % of Total Capital Minority Interest % of Com Equity Preferred Stock % of EBIT Preferred Stock % of EDITDA Preferred Stock % of Total Assets
Electric, Inc.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 12/31/2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 50.4% 45.9% 8.7% 10.6% 11.9% 82.2% 74.9% 14.2% 17.3% 16.2% 19.5% 2.9% 2.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 9.0% 0.8% 1.2% 1.3% 138.5% 125.0% 11.5% 17.2% 14.8% 18.5% 48.3% 43.6% 4.0% 6.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 92.7% 86.4% 14.3% 16.1% 19.2% 107.1% 99.8% 16.5% 18.6% 18.2% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 140.8% 134.6% 25.0% 28.1% 39.1% 140.8% 134.6% 25.0% 28.1% 28.1% 39.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 136.9% 132.6% 30.8% 38.8% 63.5% 136.9% 132.6% 30.8% 38.8% 38.8% 63.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
74
Preferred Stock % of Total Capital Preferred Stock % of Total Equity Common Equity % of Total Assets Common Equity % of Total Capital Total Capital % of Total Assets Capital Expenditure % of Sales Fixed Assets % of Common Equity Working Capital % of Total Capital Dividend Payout Funds From Operations % of Total Debt
0.0% 0.0% 73.1% 88.8% 82.3% 4.6% 41.2% 35.7% 0.0% 124.0%
0.0% 0.0% 62.0% 92.8% 66.8% 3.8% 47.5% 31.5% 0.8% 98.6%
0.0% 0.0% 74.2% 83.9% 88.4% 13.3% 54.4% 41.1% 0.0% 91.1%
0.0% 0.0% 63.8% 71.9% 88.8% 18.6% 28.2% 58.9% 0.0% 72.5%
0.0% 0.0% 48.4% 61.2% 79.2% 3.9% 20.5% 101.7% 0.0% 51.1%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
75
Liquidity Analysis: Harbin Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Total Current Assets % Net Sales Cash % of Current Assets Cash & Equivalents % of Current Assets Quick Ratio Receivables % of Current Assets Receivable Turnover number of days Inventories % of Current Assets Inventory Turnover - number of days Inventory to Cash & Equivalents - number of days Receivables % of Total Assets Current Ratio Total Debt % of Total Capital Funds from Operations % of Current Liabilities Funds from Operations % of Long Term Debt Funds from Operations % of Total Debt Funds from Operations % of Total Capital Cash Flow (in milllions of U.S. Dollars) Operating Activities
Electric, Inc.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 12/31/2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 63.0% 126.9% 88.1% 112.3% 192.1%
37.1% 1.9 32.6% 80.4 23.4% 89.4 571.8 15.3% 2.7 16.2% 101.3% 202.3% 124.0% 21.4%
34.0% 1.1 35.4% 108.1 26.4% 124.6 463.4 18.9% 1.7 14.8% 35.1% 1,367.4% 98.6% 17.0%
46.0% 3.9 30.1% 83.9 20.6% 63.3 802.1 13.6% 5.1 18.2% 170.6% 105.2% 91.1% 17.0%
62.0% 17.0 32.1% 90.5 3.5% 18.1 6,376.0 17.7% 18.1 28.1% 590.3% 72.5% 72.5% 20.4%
86.7% 27.5 11.5% 79.0 0.8% 17.5 41,545.6 9.6% 28.0 38.8% 527.4% 51.1% 51.1% 19.9%
93.3
62.5
42.3
9.1
16.9
76
22.8 111.5
71.2 89.1
39.2 81.1
0.7 36.0
47.1 4.5
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
77
Electric, Inc.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Figures are expressed as per unit of respective shares. Figures are in U.S. Dollars.
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Sales Operating Income Pre-tax Income Net Income (Continuing Operations) Net Income Before Extra Items Extraordinary Items Net Income After Extraordinary Items Net Income Available to Common Shares Fully Diluted Earnings Common Dividends Cash Earnings Book Value Retained Earnings Assets
12/31/2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 13.65 2.99 3.01 2.46 2.46 0.00 2.46 2.46 2.46 0.00 3.24 13.38 4.36 18.38 7.19 1.80 1.00 0.63 0.63 0.00 0.63 0.77 0.77 0.00 2.35 10.34 2.24 17.09 5.47 1.56 1.35 1.15 1.15 0.00 1.15 1.19 1.19 0.00 1.66 7.77 2.36 10.65 3.60 1.31 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.00 0.93 0.91 0.91 0.00 1.29 4.50 1.78 7.31 2.43 0.84 1.11 1.11 1.11 0.00 1.11 1.01 1.01 0.00 0.80 2.65 1.58 5.60
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
78
Electric, Inc.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Gross Income Margin Operating Income Margin Pretax Income Margin EBIT Margin Net Income Margin Return on Equity - Total Return on Invested Capital Return on Assets Asset Turnover Financial Leverage Interest Expense on Debt Effective Tax Rate Cash Flow % Sales Selling, General & Administrative Expenses % of Sales Research & Development Expense Operating Income Return On Total Capital
12/31/2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 31.8% 21.9% 22.1% 23.3% 18.0% 20.5% 17.5% 14.5% 0.7 19.5% 34.3% 25.0% 13.9% 19.7% 8.8% 7.8% 9.0% 7.4% 0.4 18.5% 39.3% 28.5% 24.7% 30.0% 21.0% 19.6% 17.8% 16.0% 0.5 22.2% 6,355,334 15.1% 29.3% 10.8% 49.6% 36.3% 25.8% 36.0% 25.8% 26.1% 22.2% 18.8% 0.5 39.1% 6,619,954 0.0% 36.7% 13.3% 48.6% 34.6% 45.6% 51.7% 45.6% 53.0% 40.8% 34.0% 0.4 63.5% 2,450,248 0.0% 36.2% 14.0%
0.8% 33.2%
0.9% 70.4%
1.0% 76.9%
1.6% 59.9%
3.7% 199.2%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
79
Electric, Inc.
CAA20 CAA20
508 626 336 414 2,271 5,312 447.5% 849.2% NAS 118 34 33.9%
Investment Acceptance Rating Total Market Value of Shares Outstanding - Three Year Average - Current Year Public Market Value (Excludes Closely Held) - Three Year Average - Current Year Trading Volume - Three Year Average - Current Year Turnover Rate - Three Year Average - Current Year Stock Exchange Listings Number of Institutional Investors Number of Shareholders Closely Held Shares as % of Total Shares Outstanding
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
80
Wright Quality Rating - Financial Strength: Harbin Wright Quality Rating Financial Strength Rating Total Shareholders' Equity (Millions of U.S. Dollars) Total Shareholders' Equity as % Total Capital Preferred Stock as % of Total Capital Long Term Debt as % of Total Capital Long Term Debt (Millions of U.S. Dollars) Lease Obligations (Millions of U.S. Dollars)
Electric, Inc.
C C
AA20 AA20
458 89.6% 0.0% 9.9% 50 0 50 21.3% 19.1 22.2 1.6 2.2
Long Term Debt including Leases (Millions of U.S. Dollars) Total Debt as % of Total Capital Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio: Pretax Income to Interest Expense & Preferred Dividends Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio: Pretax Income to Net Interest Income & Preferred Dividends Quick Ratio (Cash & Receivables / Current Liabilities) Current Ratio (Current Assets / Current Liabilities)
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
81
Wright Quality Rating - Profitability & Stability: Harbin Wright Quality Rating Profitability & Stability Rating
Electric, Inc.
CA CA
A20 A20
20.6% -4.0% 32.5% -4.0% 89.8% 99.0% 16.7% 17.6%
Profit Rate of Earnings on Equity Capital - Time-Weighted Normal - Basic Trend Cash Earnings Return on Equity - Time-Weighted Average - Basic Trend Cash Earnings Return on Equity - Stability Index Return On Assets (Time-Weighted Average) Pre-Tax Income as % of Total Assets (Time-Weighted Average) Operating Income as % of Total Assets (Time-Weighted Average) Operating Income as % of Total Capital (Adjusted Rate) Pre-Tax Income as % of Total Assets (Time-Weighted Average) Operating Income as % of Total Assets (Time-Weighted Average) Operating Income as % of Total Capital (Adjusted Rate)
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
82
Electric, Inc.
CAA CAA
Wright Quality Rating Growth Rating Normal Earnings Growth Cash Earnings Growth Cash Earnings Stability Index Earned Equity Growth Dividend Growth Operating Income Growth Assets Growth Sales/Revenues Growth
20 20
20.0% 25.0% 91.3% 20.6% 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
83
VgluEngine
TM
CONTENTS
Valuation Snapshot Forecast Target Prices -1, 3, 6, and 12 Month Time Horizons Historical Price and Recommendation Chart Business Summary Optimal Buy-Sell Levels Overall Rankings Alternate Valuation Figures -PEG and Comparables' PEG Detailed Financials - Annual and Quarterly
ValuEngine's fundamentally-based, quant-derived research is now available to private investors. ValuEngine's research will enhance your ability to evaluate individual stocks, manage your portfolio, and allocate capital for maximum returns. ValuEngine currently covers @5500 US equities as well as @500 ADRs and foreign stocks that trade on US markets. In addition, the firm covers most major Canadian stocks and can provide coverage of Tokyo markets on an as needed basis.
84
VgluEngine
TM
25 22 20
10
Volume (million)
VALUENGINE RATING
Price
18 15 12 10 2 8 5
RECOMMENDATION FACTORS Value Overall Rank Fair Value 1Yr Target Price P/E Ratio Last 1-Y Return Market Cap(bil) $17.93 $20.42 10.83 9.01% $0.66 Rank btm 31% btm 4% btm 26% top 26% top 26% top 38%
5 2007 Close Price 2008 2009 2010 Volume Sell 2011 Hold Buy
Target Price
VALUENGINE RECOMMENDATION
ValuEngine has issued a HOLD recommendation for HARBIN ELEC INC on Oct. 10, 2011. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that HARBIN ELEC INC has the probability to ROUGHLY MATCH average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE 5-year annualized return and risk, but UNATTRACTIVE market valuation and volatility.
BASIC INFORMATION Last Trade Trade Date Market Cap(bil) Trailing P/E Forward P/E PEG Ratio P/S Ratio M/B Ratio Sharpe Ratio 5-Y Avg Ann Return Volatility EPS Growth Annual Dividend Dividend Yield LT Debt/Equity Beta VALUATION ANALYSIS HRBN Industry Sector Today's Fair value: $17.93 18.06% overvalued Machinery-electrical 29.57% undervalued Industrial Products 28.36% undervalued $21.17 10/07/11 $0.661584 10.83 8.25 0.35 1.47 1.87 0.31 19.79% 64.83% 31.20% n/a n/a 0.14 2.05
RECOMMENDATION OVERVIEW
ValuEngine's stock recommendations are based on the proprietary ValuEngine one-year forecast return (1YFR) model output for each individual equity. A stock is rated Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Sell, Strong Sell based on the Forecast One Year Return. The breakdown for each rating is as follows: Strong Buy: More than +12% 1YFR Buy: Between +5% and +12% 1YFR Hold: Between -5% and +5% 1YFR Sell: Between -12% and -5% 1YFR Strong Sell: Less than -12% 1YFR ValuEngine's Strong Buy-rated stocks have an averaged annual return of 19% since 2001. For more details on the ValuEngine One Year Forecast Target price and its components, please go HERE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month 1-Year 2-Year 3-Year Target Price $21.10 $20.81 $20.53 $20.42 $19.49 $20.19 Exp. Return -0.34% -1.72% -3.00% -3.55% -7.93% -4.65%
Contact ValuEngine:
ValuEngine, Inc. PO Box 399 Melbourne, FL 32902 (800) 381-5576 (T) support@ValuEngine.com www.ValuEngine.com
85
VgluEngine
BUSINESS SUMMARY
TM
Harbin Electric, Inc. designs, develops and manufactures linear motors and special electric motors. With proprietary technology and core patents, the Company builds a wide array of customized linear motors and other special motor for a variety of applications and industries. The Company currently designs and supplies its motor products and systems to numerous end users throughout the Chinese domestic market, as well as, to other industrial OEM customers overseas. Industry applications for linear motors include oilfield services, conveyor systems, factory automation, packaging equipment, as well as mass transportation systems. The Company is based in Harbin, China along with its wholly owned subsidiaries.
OPTIMAL BUY-SELL
Based solely on the Historical Mispricing of HRBN, the best time to buy would be below $17.39 (or valuation below 3.00%). The best time to sell would be above $18.65 (or valuation above 4.00%).
Fair Value
Comparable Stocks' Avg P/S Comparable P/S-Based Fair Value 2.52 $36.36
86
VgluEngine
TM
Valuation
Rank
HRBN 18.06% 4 company's stock price and its Fair Value. The higher the Valuation rank, Industry -29.57% 55 the more undervalued the stock. With a Valuation Rank of 4, HRBN is Sector -28.36% 55 substantially lower than the average of its industry group, which carries S&P 500 n/a n/a a Valuation Rank of 55. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12-Month Return
Rank
HRBN 9.01% 75 performance of a stock over the recent 12 months. On a scale of 1 to Industry -23.13% 39 100, a higher 12-Month Return rank indicates a stronger performance. Sector -1.95% 50 With a 12-Month Return Rank of 75, HRBN is significantly higher than S&P 500 -0.22% 61 the industry's rank score of 39. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rank
HRBN 19.79% 96 average annual return over the last 5 years, in comparison with the Industry -12.64% 58 coverage universe. A higher rank indicates a better return performance. Sector -11.08% 54 With a rank of 96, HRBN is significantly higher than the industry, which S&P 500 -3.52% 61 has a rank of 58. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Volatility
Rank
The ValuEngine Volatility Rank reflects the volatility associated with the
HRBN 64.83% 33 stock. A higher Volatility Rank indicates a lower volatile percentile of Industry 52.09% 54 stocks. HRBN has a Volatility Rank of 33, which is moderately lower Sector 60.34% 47 than the industry Rank of 54. S&P 500 18.72% 97 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
EPS Growth
Rank
HRBN 31.20% 62 growth rate. A high rank indicates a high growth rate expectation. HRBN Industry 27.44% 56 has an EPS Growth Rank of 62.This is in line with the industry rank of Sector 53.72% 52 56. S&P 500 n/a n/a --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Market Cap(bill)
Rank
HRBN 0.66 63 market capitalization. A higher rank denotes a larger market Industry 9.23 57 capitalization within ValuEngine's stock universe. With a Size rank of 63, Sector 2.09 46 HRBN is in line with the industry, which has a rank of 57. S&P 500 n/a n/a --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sharpe Ratio
Rank
The ValuEngine Sharpe Ratio Rank measures the risk return tradeoff
HRBN 0.31 90 offered by a stock. Sharpe ratio is the stock's average annual return Industry -0.15 58 (over the last five years) divided by its annualized volatility over the Sector -0.18 53 same 5 years. With a rank of 90, HRBN is significantly higher than the S&P 500 -0.19 50 industry, which has a rank of 58. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
P/S Ratio
Rank
HRBN 1.47 43 company based on its P/S ratio. Stocks with the lowest P/S ratio are Industry 1.7 51 assigned a rank of 100 while stocks with the highest P/S ratio are Sector 1.76 65 ranked 1. At a Price/Sales rank of 43, HRBN is in line with the industry S&P 500 n/a n/a rank of 51. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
M/B Ratio
Rank
HRBN 1.87 45 relative to the stock universe. A higher rank corresponds to a lower Industry 3.01 44 market book value. HRBN has a Market/Book rank of 45, which is in line Sector 4.08 47 with the industry rank of 44. S&P 500 n/a n/a --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
P/E Ratio
HRBN Industry Sector S&P 500 10.83 n/a 16.97 n/a
Rank
75 48 56 n/a
The ValuEngine P/E Rank signifies the relative standing of a company on its P/E ratio, relative to the universe. Stocks in the top P/E percentile are each assigned a rank of 1(highest P/E stocks) while those in the bottom P/E percentile are assigned a rank of 100 (traditional value stocks). With a P/E rank of 75, HRBN is moderately higher than the industry P/E rank of 48.
3
87
VgluEngine
Valuation
HRBN FELE CPST UQM HEAT 18.06% -21.70% -48.62% -56.66% -31.09%
TM
FORECAST COMPARISONS
RETURN FORECAST: EXPECTED RETURN CPST One-Month Three-Month Six-Month One-Year Two-Year Three-Year 1.42% 1.47% 1.17% -0.16% -1.48% 3.39% FELE 1.04% 0.96% 0.70% 0.80% -1.42% 2.96% HEAT 2.84% 6.60% 13.71% 37.43% 36.21% 25.09% HRBN -0.34% -1.72% -3.00% -3.55% -7.93% -4.65% UQM -1.17% -5.92% -11.02% -21.05% -26.53% -30.74%
Volatility
HRBN FELE CPST UQM HEAT 64.83% 31.62% 74.18% 72.29% 80.60%
Rank
33 82 25 26 20
RISK ASSESSMENT: CHANCE OF LOSS CPST One-Month Three-Month Six-Month One-Year Two-Year Three-Year 47.35% 48.42% 49.11% 50.08% 50.56% 48.95% FELE 45.48% 47.58% 48.75% 48.99% 51.27% 47.85% HEAT 45.15% 43.50% 40.50% 32.12% 37.54% 42.87% HRBN 50.73% 52.12% 52.61% 52.19% 53.44% 51.65% UQM 52.24% 56.51% 58.54% 61.45% 60.24% 59.70%
EPS Growth
HRBN FELE CPST UQM HEAT 0.31 0.14 0.88 0.77 -1.29
Rank
62 39 81 79 2
Market Cap(bill)
HRBN FELE CPST UQM HEAT 0.66 0.88 0.26 0.06 0.03
Rank
63 67 48 25 16
* Comparables are companies in the same Sector and Industry and of approximately similar market capitalization value.
Sharpe Ratio
HRBN FELE CPST UQM HEAT 0.31 -0.22 -0.13 0.02 -0.98
Rank
90 46 56 72 5
P/S Ratio
HRBN FELE CPST UQM HEAT 1.47 1.14 2.93 7.22 0.24
Rank
43 51 24 11 88
M/B Ratio
HRBN FELE CPST UQM HEAT 1.87 4.72 8.76 1.52 0.22
Rank
45 18 9 53 97
P/E Ratio
HRBN FELE CPST UQM HEAT 10.83 14.98 n/a n/a n/a
Rank
75 58 13 20 12
88
VgluEngine
BALANCE SHEET Cash Marketable Securities Receivables Inventory Raw Materials Work in Progress Finished Goods Notes Receivable Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Property, Plant & Equipment Accumulated Depreciation Net Property, Plant & Equipment Investment & Advances Other non-current Assets Deferred Charges Intangibles Deposits & other assets TOTAL ASSETS Notes Payable Accounts Payable
TM
Current Portion of Long-term Debt Current Portion of Capital Leases Accrued Expenses Income Taxes Payable Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Mortgages Deferred Charges (taxes/income) Convertible Debt Long Term Debt Non-Current Capital Leases Other Long-Term Liabilities Minority Interest (liabilities) Total Liabilities Preferred Stock Common Stock, Net Capital Surplus Retained Earnings Treasury Stock Other Equity Total Shareholders' Equity Total Liabilites & Shareholders Equity
89
VgluEngine
INCOME STATEMENT Net Sales or Revenues Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit
TM
Research & Development Expense Selling, General & Admin. Expense Income Before Depr., Depl., Amort. Depreciation, Depletion, Amort. Non-Operating Income Interest Expense Pretax Income Provision for Income Taxes Minority Interest Investment Gains (Losses) Other Income Income Before Extraordinaries & Disc Extraordinary Items & Discontinued Net Income Average Shares used for Diluted EPS Average Shares used for Basic EPS Income Before Non-Recurring Items Income From Non-Recurring Items EPS - Basic, net EPS - Diluted, net EPS - Diluted, before non-recurring Preferred Dividends - Acc & Pd Dividends (common) Dividend per share (common) CASH FLOW STATEMENT Net Income (Cash Flow) Depreciation, Depletion, Amortization-CF Net Increase(decrease) in Cash from(used in) Discontinued Oper. Other Adjustments - Net Net Cash from (used by) Operating Act. Increase/Decrease in Prop, Plant, & Equ. Acquisition/Disposition of Subsidiaires Increase (decrease) in Investments Other Cash inflow from Investment Act. Net Cash from (used by) Invesment Act. Issuance (purchase) of Equity Shares Issuance (repayment) of Debt Securities Increase (decrease) in Bank & Other Payment of Dividends & Other Cash Other Cash from (used by) Financing Net Cash from (used by) Financing Act. Net Change in Cash & Cash Equivalents Copyright 1998 - 2011 ValuEngine Inc
79.2 11.5 -8 0 10.6 93.3 -57.3 -27.2 0 -26.9 -111.4 2 40.5 -22.2 0 2.5 22.8 5.8
23.1 17 2.3 0 20 62.5 -11.9 -72.9 0 -4.3 -89.1 119.4 -34.2 -2.8 -0.2 -11 71.2 44.5
25.4 7.7 6.9 0 2.3 42.3 -32.4 -48.3 0 -0.4 -81.1 48.3 -4 -4.3 0 -0.7 39.2 2.9
16.9 6.2 -14.9 0 0.9 9.1 -12.1 0 0 -23.9 -36 1.7 0 0 0 -1 0.7 -21.8
18.4 2.2 -4.1 0 0.3 16.9 -1.6 0 1.1 -4 -4.5 0 47 0 0 0 47.1 61.6
10 0.3 -9.5 0 0 0.9 -2.3 0 0 -0.3 -2.5 4.8 0 0 0 -0.2 4.6 3.5 6
90
VgluEngine
BALANCE SHEET Cash Marketable Securities Receivables Inventory Raw Materials Work in Progress Finished Goods Notes Receivable Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Property, Plant & Equipment Accumulated Depreciation Net Property, Plant & Equipment Investment & Advances Other non-current Assets Deferred Charges Intangibles Deposits & other assets TOTAL ASSETS Notes Payable Accounts Payable
TM
Current Portion of Long-term Debt Current Portion of Capital Leases Accrued Expenses Income Taxes Payable Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Mortgages Deferred Charges (taxes/income) Convertible Debt Long Term Debt Non-Current Capital Leases Other Long-Term Liabilities Minority Interest (liabilities) Total Liabilities Preferred Stock Common Stock, Net Capital Surplus Retained Earnings Treasury Stock Other Equity Total Shareholders' Equity Total Liabilites & Shareholders Equity
91
VgluEngine
INCOME STATEMENT Net Sales or Revenues Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit
TM
Research & Development Expense Selling, General & Admin. Expense Income Before Depr., Depl., Amort. Depreciation, Depletion, Amort. Non-Operating Income Interest Expense Pretax Income Provision for Income Taxes Minority Interest Investment Gains (Losses) Other Income Income Before Extraordinaries & Disc Extraordinary Items & Discontinued Net Income Average Shares used for Diluted EPS Average Shares used for Basic EPS Income Before Non-Recurring Items Income From Non-Recurring Items EPS - Basic, net EPS - Diluted, net EPS - Diluted, before non-recurring Preferred Dividends - Acc & Pd Dividends (common) Dividend per share (common) CASH FLOW STATEMENT Net Income (Cash Flow) Depreciation, Depletion, Amortization-CF Net Increase(decrease) in Cash from(used in) Discontinued Oper. Other Adjustments - Net Net Cash from (used by) Operating Act. Increase/Decrease in Prop, Plant, & Equ. Acquisition/Disposition of Subsidiaires Increase (decrease) in Investments Other Cash inflow from Investment Act. Net Cash from (used by) Invesment Act. Issuance (purchase) of Equity Shares Issuance (repayment) of Debt Securities Increase (decrease) in Bank & Other Payment of Dividends & Other Cash Other Cash from (used by) Financing Net Cash from (used by) Financing Act. Net Change in Cash & Cash Equivalents Copyright 1998 - 2011 ValuEngine Inc
28 6 -21.2 0 5.6 18.4 -17.7 0 0 -23.2 -40.9 0 -0.6 26 0 -16.3 9.1 -11.2
10.8 2.9 -8.1 0 3.1 8.7 -0.3 0 0 -0.2 -0.6 0 0 29.9 0 -14.4 15.5 24.1
79.2 11.5 -8 0 10.6 93.3 -57.3 -27.2 0 -26.9 -111.4 2 40.5 -22.2 0 2.5 22.8 5.8
66.4 9.2 0.4 0 3.1 79.2 -57.2 -27.9 0 -26.5 -111.7 0 -9.1 2.6 0 0.6 -5.9 -37.4
48.6 6.1 -4.9 0 -0.6 49.1 -40.5 -27.9 0 -26.5 -95 0 -3.8 -1.6 0 -1.5 -6.9 -52.6
22.9 3.3 -9.4 0 0.6 17.3 -1.3 -27.9 0 -0.1 -29.3 0 -3.8 0.2 0 0.5 -3.1 -15.1
23.1 17 2.3 0 20 62.5 -11.9 -72.9 0 -4.3 -89.1 119.4 -34.2 -2.8 -0.2 -11 71.2 44.5
1.3 14.1 3.6 0 18.4 37.5 -7.1 0 0 -2.3 -9.4 118.6 -32.7 1.1 0 -8.5 78.5 106.5 8
92
VgluEngine
TM
93
VgluEngine
TM
25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
Engine Rating
DISCLOSURES
ValuEngine offers equity recommendations and related return estimates to investors and their advisors. It uses a three-class Buy-Hold-Sell rating system. This is a consolidated version of the firm's five class rating system: most favorable and favorable ratings are buys; neutral ratings are holds and the categories unfavorable and most unfavorable are sells. STOCK RATINGS: The terms below are used to rate a stock's 12-month performance: 1. Buy: Expected to outperform the SP500 producing above average returns. 2. Hold: Expected to perform in line with the SP500 with average returns. 3. Sell: Expected to underperform the SP500 producing below-average returns. ValuEngine does not offer brokerage or investment banking services. ValuEngine adheres to professional standards and abides by formal codes of ethics that put the interests of clients ahead of their own. The following are specific disclosures made by ValuEngine with regards to this research report: 1. ValuEngine, Inc. does not make a market in this security. 2. ValuEngine, Inc. has not received compensation from the companies discussed above in the last 12 months. 3. ValuEngine has not managed or co-managed a public offering for any companies in the above report in the past twelve months. 4. None of ValuEngine's management, the analysts involved, nor a member of the research analyst's household serves as an officer, director or advisory board member of the companies discussed in this report. 5. The research analyst over this company or members of his/her household do not have a financial interest in these companies discussed in this report. 6. ValuEngine, Inc. or its affiliates do not beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject companies. 7. Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: a). all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers; and b). no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report.
DISCLAIMERS
This report is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation, or an offer, to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. The report has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient. The information contained herein accurately reflects the opinion of ValuEngine at the time the report was released. The opinions of ValuEngine are subject to change at any time without notice and without obligation of notification. ValuEngine does not provide investment banking or consulting services to the companies mentioned in this report. ValuEngine does not receive any compensation from companies mentioned in this report. The author, officers, or affiliates of ValuEngine do not hold positions in the securities of the companies mentioned in this report. No warranty is made as to the accuracy of the information contained herein. This information is intended for the sole use of clients of ValuEngine, Inc. Any other use, distribution, or reproduction is strictly prohibited. Quotes provided by Zacks.
Copyright 1998 - 2011 ValuEngine Inc 10
94
Conclusions Page 9
Harbin Electric, Inc. is an above average quality company with a neutral outlook. Harbin Electric, Inc. has medium business growth and is run by efficient management. The trend in Harbin Electric, Inc. fair value exchange rate against its closest rated-competitor, American Superconductor Corporation, has been appreciating over the past 2 weeks. When compared to its closest peer, Hydrogenics Corporation (USA), Harbin Electric, Inc. shows similar undervaluation and is more likely to outperform the market. StockMarks Ratings Total Quality Classical Business Management Price Volability Outperformance
SMT
SMC
SMB
SMM
SMP
SMV
SMO
Summary StockMarks Ratings for Harbin Electric, Inc. were calculated in relation to the entire population of 4206 United States-listed companies rated today, using a scale from 0 (worst) to 100 (best). For an explanation of each rating, see page 10.
1
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
95
HRBN
Industrials
NASDAQ
2011-10-06
Harbin Electric, Inc.'s registered activity is in the Electrical Components & Equipment industry. The table above gives a profile of the company.
The chart below shows the movements of the Total Quality StockMark (SMT)
and share price expressed as indexes since we began rating the company.
It is a mid-cap stock currently trading at a multiple of 11.63 times earnings. While Harbin Electric, Inc.'s share price has risen strongly in the last quarter, the company's long-term investment rating (chart above) remained unchanged over the same period.
2
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
96
An important question to ask is whether Harbin Electric, Inc.s underlying long-term fundamentals justify the steep rise in the company's share price. We can examine this issue using the StockMarks framework. First, in the chart on the right, we compare the companys trend for each rating, followed by a comparison of the companys overall long-term investment attractiveness rating (Total StockMark or SMT) in relation to its sector (chart below).
Ratings showing a positive trend: Total; Business; Management; Ratings showing a negative trend: Price; Classic; Volatility; Outperformance;
Recent rating trends:
Harbin Electric, Inc. currently has an overall quality rating significantly above the average of its sector.
Harbin Electric, Inc. currently has an overall long-term investment attractiveness rating (Total StockMark or SMT) of 68, placing Harbin Electric, Inc. above the SMT average of 50.89 for United Stateslisted companies. This rating ranks Harbin Electric, Inc. third when compared to ten of its closest peers, selected because of similarity of business, financial and market-positioning factors such as size (see page 5).
How do the Harbin Electric, Inc.'s ratings rank among selected benchmark groups?
StockMarks ratings were calculated in relation to the total of 4206 United States-listed companies rated today. Although the scale from 0 to 100 is in itself meaningful, for benchmarking purposes we need to define a few relevant reference groups, namely competitors, correlated stocks and value investing peers.
3
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
97
Company Name
Similarity Industry SMT SMB SMM % Share % 0.20 83.3 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 66.7 66.7 0.19 0.01 4.11 0.36 1.15 0.18 0.86 0.95 0.03 0.16 68 24 36 65 50 73 50 68 65 25 57 49 44 64 49 27 70 27 75 49 40 26 65 12 17 60 58 54 60 51 61 14 72
SMP 68 74 72 68 67 67 68 53 67 75 67
Harbin Electric, Inc.s best rank among competitors is second for the Management Efficiency (SMM) rating.
The closest competitor, American Superconductor Corporation has a similarity index of 83.3% and a market share of 0.2% compared to Harbin Electric, Inc.s market share of 0.2% (See table on the right). Harbin Electric, Inc.s competitors were selected based on the registration industry, total revenue and market capitalization among rated companies. These do not include non-listed companies and foreign competitors, which may be more significant. Similarly, we calculated the industry market share only in relation to rated companies. Therefore, a 100% market share does not mean that the company has no competitors in the industry. China Ritar Power Corp. is the closest stock for pair trading with a similarity index of 75%, defined on the basis of market correlation, sector and trading volumes. To assess the recent convergence/divergence trend, readers should use a chart to compare the prices of the chosen pair. SADIF subscribers may draw such chart by choosing option 3 in the Due Diligence Section. In general, pair trading requires degrees of similarity above 70%.
HYGS NJ
FELE Franklin Electric Co. AOS A. O. Smith Corporation AZZ BEZ AZZ Incorporated Baldor Electric Company
JELC Johnson Electric Holdings Y (... HEV Ener1, Inc. AEIS Advanced Energy Industries,...
The success of pair trading strategies depends on the investors ability to forecast the convergence path. However, convergence itself may only happen if the two companies are not diverging in a fundamental way. Investors can evaluate this possibility by comparing the StockMarks quality ratings shown in the second table below.
In relation to its highest correlated stocks (for pair trading) Harbin Electric, Inc.s best rank is third for the Management Efficiency (SMM) rating. However, to assess pair trading convergence it is also important to consider Harbin Electric, Inc.s worst ranking, which is fourth for the Price Attractiveness (SMP) rating.
Company Name
Similarity SMT SMB SMM SMP % 68 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 57 32 54 78 44 73 49 65 68 58 49 39 20 37 79 25 53 38 67 33 49 65 59 43 53 54 49 69 44 43 78 49 68 66 68 70 68 69 68 69 68 67 69
HRBN Harbin Electric, Inc. CRTP China Ritar Power Corp. TEX Terex Corporation
GTLS Chart Industries, Inc. GNK TXT GTI MTW Genco Shipping & Trading Li... Textron Inc. GrafTech International Ltd. Manitowoc Company, Inc.
PLNR Planar Systems, Inc. PWER Power-One, Inc. MIC Macquarie Infrastructure Co...
4
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
98
At this stage, some investors may find it useful to read the Due Diligence Reports for these peers or competitors.
The overall conclusion is that Harbin Electric, Inc. is an above average quality company with a neutral outlook. Nevertheless, we need to look further into its determinants by examining each quality rating separately. We selected also a group of investment peers in terms of longterm operational and financial similarities. Because of the stringency of the criteria used, not all companies have a degree of similarity greater than the minimum of 50% recommended for reliable benchmarking. Among this group shown in the table above on the right, Harbin Electric, Inc.s best rank is second for the Management Efficiency (SMM) rating. The radar chart above provides a synopsis of all of Harbin Electric, Inc.s ratings in comparison to its top two peers.
5
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
99
in place as it takes a few quarters before its impact is shown in the company financials. Also, sometimes a small temporary decline or rise may not be attributed to a change in efficiency but are instead the result of large shifts in investment/disinvestment.
6
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
100
The fair value exchange rate of Harbin Electric, Inc.s stock in relation to its closest competitor American Superconductor Corporation is appreciating.
The valuation of stock-for-stock offers in M&A transactions is quite complex when shareholders of the acquirer and the target company hold significantly different views on the intrinsic value of their companies. The nominal stock exchange rate as given by current market prices (shown in the chart below) may be misleading if markets, as they often do, over-estimate or underestimate the premium/discount relative to intrinsic value.
A chart of the SMP and the ratings of some of the company's key price valuation multiples is shown above. Investors need to consider the most recent absolute value of the SMP and its determinants together with the SMP trend. First, to verify if the stock is caught at a stationary level, indicating that it may remain undervalued or overvalued for long periods. Second, investors should assess if it is diverging or converging in relation to a fair valuation (SMP between 4555).
7
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
101
Unfortunately, the estimation of intrinsic values is a very challenging task. However, we may minimize the problem and bypass the need to estimate intrinsic values by adjusting the nominal stock exchange rates with our Price Attractiveness StockMark (SMP), which estimates the degree of over or undervaluation at any level of the market premium or discount. By adjusting the nominal rates by the relative SMPs we obtain the fair value exchange rate. Current nominal rates vs. fair value stock exchange rates are shown in the previous page:
The trend in the fair value exchange rates shown above is relevant not only to adjust valuations but also to assess the price outlook for Harbin Electric, Inc..
8
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
102
The market sentiment in relation to Harbin Electric, Inc. is positive and is deteriorating
No due diligence is complete without considering the market sentiment in relation to Harbin Electric, Inc., because this is paramount in determining the stock s performance in the short to medium-term.
For this, we use the Outperformance StockMark (SMO), which measures the likelihood of the company to outperform the market in the near term. This rating combines the company's past quarter price dynamics with its market risk and total quality, in a scale from 0 (worst) to 100 (best). Harbin Electric, Inc.s SMO is currently at 75. Looking at its trend in the chart on the left, we can see that it is deteriorating. When compared to its closest peer, Hydrogenics Corporation (USA), Harbin Electric, Inc. shows similar undervaluation and is more likely to outperform the market. While, if compared to its first competitor, American Superconductor Corporation, Harbin Electric, Inc. shows less undervaluation and is equally likely to outperform the market.
Conclusions The company's share price in the past year has been declining, but we believe that its underlying fundamentals will determine the stocks long-term performance. A StockMarks analysis of Harbin Electric, Inc. reveals a company with an above average quality and medium long-term business growth. The likelihood of Harbin Electric, Inc. stock to outperform the market as measured by the Outperformance StockMark (SMO) is well above average with a rating of 75 / 100. The risk associated with holding the shares as measured by the Volatility StockMark (SMV) is below average with a rating of 66 /100. Overall, we believe Harbin Electric, Inc. to be a good long-term investment.
9
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
103
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. This report is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or advice to buy or sell any security. The data contained within this report is not warranted to be accurate or complete. This report is only intended as a summary of SADIF's stock ratings and not a recommendation for stock purchase or sale. Redistribution of this report without explicit permission is strictly prohibited. All logos are the copyright property of their respective companies and are used here only to aid the reader in identification of the subject of the article. The author of this article does not hold a position in any of the companies featured within this report.
Marques Mendes & Associados Lda. Rua Domingos F. Pinto Basto, 17 3830-176 Ilhavo, Portugal, Ph: (+ 351)234 322 037 Email: research@sadifanalytics.com
10
104
Rating Changes
Harbin Electric, Inc. (HRBN) HRBN: Privatization Appears On-Track; Downgrading to Neutral
Estimate Changes
Destination Maternity Corp. (DEST) DEST: September Comps Beat, Economic Headwinds Persist, Maintain Neutral Rating
Company Comments
bebe stores, inc. (BEBE) Unigene Labs Inc. (UGNE) Wet Seal, Inc., The (WTSLA) BEBE: Q1 Comps Beat; Merchandise Strategies Working; RT Buy UGNE: Continuing To Execute On Strategy With Nordic Deal Reiterate Buy WTSLA: September Comps Miss, Believe Issues are Fixable, Reiterate Buy
Industry Comments
Retail & Consumer Products Medical Technology September Comp Recap 3Q 2011: Quarterly Medical Technology Trading & Acquisition Valuation Update
Refer to important disclosure information and rating System Definition on page 10 of this report. Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 888 San Clemente Drive | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
105
MORNING SUMMARY
EQUITY RESEARCH
October 7, 2011
Rating Changes
Harbin Electric, Inc. (NASDAQ: HRBN)
Mark Tobin (949) 720-5775 Price: $21.76 Mkt. Cap.(mil): $684.0
20.0 16.0 12.0 8.0 4.0
May-11
Downgrading to Neutral
Target: $24.00
HRBN: Privatization Appears On-Track; Downgrading to Neutral With the filing of its definitive proxy materials last week and the shareholder vote scheduled for October 29, we believe HRBN's buy-out is well on its way to completion and expect shares to continue to trend toward the $24 buy-out price. Given the ~10% upside from current levels, we are downgrading shares to Neutral (from Buy).
30 25 20 15 10 5
Oct-11
0.0
Feb-11 Nov-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jan-11 Apr-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Price
Recall, on September 29 HRBN filed its definitive proxy materials and scheduled its shareholder vote for October 29. These announcement signified that HRBN had completed the final meaningful hurdle associated with its privatization, in our view. We believe the deal financing remains firmly in place. We consider the remaining steps in the transaction to be largely formalities. Since there is no change in majority ownership, there is no Chinese regulatory approval required to complete the transaction. The company has settled the class action lawsuits in 2 of 3 jurisdictions and we expect the final jurisdiction to also be settled in the near-term. Based on timelines from previous transactions, we project the HRBN deal will close in early November. In comparison, Chemspec closed 4 business days after its successful shareholder vote, Funtalk in 3 business days, and China Security and Surveillance in 2 business days.
Page 2 of 10
106
EQUITY RESEARCH
October 7, 2011
Neutral
BKE: September Comps Beat, Raising Estimates, Maintain Neutral Rating September comps increased 10.3%, beating our/consensus estimate of a MSD increase and up over last years comp of 3%. This is the second month that results exceeded expectations and given that sequential compares got tougher speaks to the product offering and compelling value. That said, we continue to believe that long-term growth is limited and therefore, we maintain our Neutral rating. Net sales increased 13% to $98.4 million, with men's sales up 12% and representing 37.5% of sales. Strong categories included denim, woven and knit shirts, outerwear, footwear and accessories; price points were up 7.5% implying units were up 4.5%. Womens sales were up 13.5% from last year and represented 62.5% of sales. Strong categories included denim, woven and knit shirts, sweaters, outerwear and footwear; price points up 5.5%, implying units were up 8%. Within the mens and womens categories combined, accessories and footwear sales were up 6% and 10.5% respectively and accounted for 8% and 5.5% respectively of net sales. Average accessory prices were down slightly while average footwear prices were up 6.5%. UPTs were up slightly while the average transaction value was up 6%, implying volume or transactions were up about 4%. Based on the results of the past 2 months, we are raising our Q3 and FY2011 earnings estimate to $0.77 and $3.03 from $0.75 and $3.01 respectively. We are also raising our price target to $39 from $35. However, we maintain our Neutral stance on the stock as we believe the one-time special dividend of $2.25/share (payable October 27th) is already priced in the stock and organic growth is limited. Moreover, the compares become more difficult starting in Q4 and thus we believe the stock has limited upside from current levels. Intraday price: $43.46 3:20pm ET, 10/6/11
May-11
Nov-10
Dec-10
Aug-11
Sep-11
60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Price
Feb-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Oct-11
Jul-11
Page 3 of 10
107
EQUITY RESEARCH
October 7, 2011
Neutral
Target: $15.00
DEST: September Comps Beat, Economic Headwinds Persist, Maintain Neutral Rating Comparable retail sales were +2.4%, above our/consensus estimate of negative LSD. By segment, comparable retail sales were +0.2% versus -2.2% last year while Internet sales were up 35.5% versus a 20.6% increase last year. While we are encouraged by September sales as we believe it more fully reflects the product, we remain cautious about business near-term given the various macro headwinds. September total sales increased 6.6% to $44.2 million driven by the Macys expansion and higher online sales offset by the ongoing closure of underperforming stores. We believe the catalog and consumers buying closer to need had a positive impact on September sales. However, as consumers remain cautious about spending, DEST increased its promotional activity and its markdowns in order to drive conversion, which hurt margins. On an adjusted basis due to calendar shifts, comparable retail sales increased 1.5% while comparable stores decreased 0.8% versus a negative 1.3% and negative 2.6% respectively. Q4 total sales were up 4.2% to $129.4 million with comparable retail sales down 1.7%, both toward the lower end of guidance. Comparable stores sales were down 4.1% while Internet net sales were up 34.9%. For the year, total sales increased 2.7% to $545.4 million with comparable retail sales up 0.1%, comparable store sales down 1.4% and Internet sales up 22%. Based on the margin impact stemming from the additional markdown and promotional activity, management updated is Q4 earnings guidance to be at or slight higher than the low end of its previously issued guidance of $0.18 to $0.28. We are lowering our GAAP Q4 and FY2011 estimate to $0.19 and $1.74 from $0.21 and $1.76. Although we believe DEST has several longer-term earnings catalysts including real estate rationalization, leased/licensed opportunities with domestic and international partners and a growing e-commerce platform, we believe these catalysts are not likely to have a materially impact on results until the 2H of FY2012. Furthermore, based on the slower than expected Macys ramp, merchandise issues and ongoing economic pressures, we expect the stock to remain range bound; accordingly, we are maintaining our Neutral rating and $15 price target.
30 25 20 15
0.0
Feb-11 Nov-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jan-11 Apr-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
10
Oct-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Price
Page 4 of 10
108
EQUITY RESEARCH
October 7, 2011
Buy
Target: $10.00
BEBE: Q1 Comps Beat; Merchandise Strategies Working; RT Buy BEBE reported a Q1 comp of 7% (includes direct), beating our estimate/consensus estimate of MSD increase as well as exceeding guidance of a MSD increase. Based on recent channel checks, we see ongoing merchandise progress that we believe is resonating with shoppers. Moreover, we believe fashion trends are in BEBEs favor right now and therefore, we expect the momentum to continue. Total retail sales were up 7.1% to $116 million and comps, which now include direct, were up 7% versus -4.7% last year. It is important to note that last years comp does not include direct, but according to management, the online business was not meaningful last year, which we attribute to the product, and therefore would not have moved the needle. All regions were positive, with the Midwest being the weakest and the Southeast being the strongest; in addition, all months positive with July and September being better than August. September being better than August is an encouraging incoming trend and bodes well for Q2. Metrics for the 77 stores that have traffic counters were: traffic up flat, which we believe is better than the industry average, conversion up 7%, UPTs up 6% while AUR was down 6% due to a mix shift. Dresses, denim, knit tops, tubular and accessories were the better performing categories while woven tops and bottoms remain challenging. 2b bebe also continues to perform well. Inventory remains tightly managed with average finished goods inventory/square foot from continuing operations were flat, well below the current comp run rate. Management indicated Q1 earnings are expected to be at the high end of guidance of -$0.01 to $0.01 and expects to report Q1 earnings on November 3rd after market close. We are maintaining our Q4 estimate of $0.01. The ongoing improvement in comps reinforces our belief that the merchandise changes are resonating with shoppers. That said, we believe there are still additional opportunities for product improvement in key categories such as outerwear, wovens, shoes and logo. Moreover, we believe the solid balance sheet, ~$3 cash & investments/share, provides significant downside cushion to the stock and therefore, we are maintaining our Buy rating and our $10 price target. Intraday price: $6.77 2:40pm ET, 10/6/11
9 8 7 6 5 4
0.0
Feb-11 Nov-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jan-11 Apr-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Oct-11
Jul-11
Price
Page 5 of 10
109
MORNING SUMMARY
EQUITY RESEARCH
October 7, 2011
Buy
Target: $2.50
UGNE: Continuing To Execute On Strategy With Nordic Deal Reiterate Buy We believe UGNE has a unique asset base and several products in development to drive share value higher. UGNE has a patented manufacturing process that enables the cost-effective production of peptides, plus proprietary technologies that allow for oral and nasal delivery of peptides. UGNE continues to be active in its BD efforts, evidenced by the recent Nordic Bioscience announcement. Nordic Bioscience JV Adds Pipeline Assets. UGNE and Nordic Bioscience established a joint venture to advance up to 3 of the companys proprietary calcitonin analogs through Phase II proof-of-concept for the treatment of Type II diabetes, osteoarthritis, and osteoporosis. UGNE and Nordic will each own 50% of the JV, with the company contributing the compounds and their manufacture for preclinical and clinical trials. In exchange, Nordic will fully fund and conduct all preclinical and clinical development for the Type II diabetes indication through Phase II proof-of-concept. The companies will negotiate financial and development resources for the osteoarthritis and osteoporosis indications should they advance. Cash Infusion by Nordics Chairman Provides Validation, As Well As Capital. In conjunction with the JV news, UGNE announced that Dr. Claus Christiansen, Chairman of Nordic Bioscience, purchased $1.5M of UGNE common stock through his Danish foundation. The foundation took an option to purchase an additional $1.5M of stock before year end, and a second option to purchase up to $3M of UGNE common stock in 1H12. In addition to providing operating capital to the company, we believe the investment serves as a validation of UGNEs technology, given that Dr. Christiansen and his scientific team has had an opportunity to conduct substantial due diligence on the platform and its promise for making oral peptide delivery a reality. Several Exciting Catalysts Anticipated in 4Q. Mid and late-stage assets that could increase shareholder value near-term include an oral calcitonin candidate for osteoporosis with Tarsa Therapeutics (NDA filing by year-end), an oral PTH candidate, also for osteoporosis, with GlaxoSmithKline (Phase II results by year-end), and a separate oral calcitonin product being developed by Novartis (Phase III results by year-end). Reiterate Buy, $2.50 Price Target. Our $2.50 price target is based on a P/E multiple of 30x our 2018 EPS estimate of $0.27, discounted back 6 years at 30% to arrive at $1.70 per share. We then add $0.50/share for UGNEs 20% ownership in Tarsa plus $0.30 per share for UGNEs technology platform, intellectual property, its FDA-approved peptide manufacturing facility, and federal NOLs.
May-11
Nov-10
Dec-10
Aug-11
Sep-11
2 1 1 1 1 1 0 Price
Feb-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Oct-11
Jul-11
P/E NM NM NM
Page 6 of 10
110
MORNING SUMMARY
EQUITY RESEARCH
October 7, 2011
Buy
Target: $7.00
WTSLA: September Comps Miss, Believe Issues are Fixable, Reiterate Buy Comps declined 0.3%, below the LSD/MSD estimates; flat at Wet Seal and -2.2% at Arden. We attribute the miss to a falloff in post-Labor Day traffic and the competitive environment; however, merchandise margins were up and earnings guidance maintained. After several months of consecutive positive comps, it is premature to overreact to the comp shortfall; accordingly, we reiterate our Buy rating. While the denim assortment at Wet Seal is not quite fixed, we believe the comp shortfall had more to do with a decline in mall traffic, which was consistent with our channel checks, as the BTS shopping season wound down. However, we also believe the promotional strategy, which the company has been tweaking for the past several months, played a part in the miss. As previously discussed, WTSLA has taken a more disciplined approach to its pricing and promotional strategy in order to present a clearer value message to customers. Specifically, they have consolidated price points and pulled-back on the number of promotions running at one time. In our opinion, this hurt results during the latter part of the month as the competitive landscape intensified. That said, comps have been solidly positive for the last 8 months and merchandise margins continue to move up in spite of rising costs pressure and therefore, we believe that directionally, these strategies still make sense. Comps were still negative at Arden, but improved over August on a 1-year and 2-year stacked basis. Results were stronger in the first part of the month, which we attribute to a better promotional cadence, but consistent with Wet Seal, sales softened during the latter part of the month as the BTS selling period ended. Nonetheless, merchandise margins improved over last years levels. Based on recent channel checks, category balance is work-in-progress but we remain optimistic about Ardens ability to take make share as its merchandise, pricing and promotional strategy improve. E-commerce sales were down 22% due to the change and we expect online sales will remain under pressure at least until the end of the year given tougher compares. However, as cross channel shopping has become more of the norm, we believe the site and stores should have a more unified voice While comps are expected to fall below the initial guidance of a MSD increase, given effective expense management and higher merchandise margins, earnings are still expected to be between $0.05 and $0.06; accordingly, we are maintaining our Q3 estimate of $0.06. Intraday price: $4.11 12:30pm ET, 10/6/11
May-11
6 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 Price
Nov-10
Dec-10
Aug-11
Sep-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Oct-11
Jul-11
Page 7 of 10
111
EQUITY RESEARCH
October 7, 2011
Promotional environment and late Back to School shopping fuel results. September same store sales results were generally better than expected, driven by a late Back to School push and a fairly promotional environment. In our universe, four of the companies reporting comps were better than expected (BEBE, BKE, DEST, ZUMZ), while only WTSLA reported comps that were below expectations. According to Retail Metrics, the consolidated comp for reporting retailers (excluding gasoline sales) was a 4.8% gain, better than the consensus of 4.0%. Of the companies tracked by Retail Metrics, 63% of the reporting companies beat expectations, with 37% below Street forecasts. With September and the Back to School period behind us, the focus turns to the holiday shopping season. October is traditionally a transitional, low-volume month, so most retailers have a good read on third quarter results. The National Retail Federation released its 2011 holiday season forecast today, with expectations it termed average. Specifically, the NRF forecasts November and December retail sales will be up 2.8% this year, versus a 5.2% increase in 2010. The NRF release stated that continued consumer uncertainty over the stock market, higher gas and food prices, fiscal policy and sputtering job growth will impact spending this holiday season. While retail stocks have been harder hit than the broader market in the past two months, we continue to be cautious regarding the sector as a whole. The RLX retail index is down 9% from its peak in July, but is still up 11% in the last year. Overall, we believe macroeconomic headwinds and conservative merchandising plans are likely to limit the upside for retail stocks as we head into the holiday season. As such, we believe investors with a long-term view should continue to focus on names that have strong franchises, legitimate organic growth, and clean balance sheets, including BEBE, CHS, CMRG, URBN, WTSLA and ZUMZ. .
Companies mentioned:
BEBE $6.71 Buy BKE $43.86 Neutral CHS $12.29 Buy CMRG $3.98 Buy DEST $14.24 Neutral PSUN $1.24 Neutral URBN $24.06 Buy WTSLA $4.05 Buy ZUMZ $21.06 Buy
Page 8 of 10
112
MORNING SUMMARY
EQUITY RESEARCH
October 7, 2011
Medical Technology
Matt Dolan (949) 720-5796 3Q 2011: Quarterly Medical Technology Trading & Acquisition Valuation Update In today's note, we provide our update on trading and acquisition valuations in the Medical Technology industry and our universe. As of the end of 3Q11, 206 Medical Technology stocks were trading with an average EV to sales multiple of 2.2x CY11 and 1.9x CY12 consensus revenue estimates. 155 small-cap Medical Technology stocks were trading with an EV to sales multiple of 2.0x and 1.7x CY11 and CY12 consensus estimates, respectively. P/E multiples stand at around 19x 2011 earnings for small cap stocks and 18x for all market caps. The companies in these two groups are demonstrating average 2-year sales growth and gross margins of 10% and 52% (all market cap) and 10% and 51% (<$2B market cap), respectively. The industry's EV to FTM sales multiple currently stands at 2.14x, down from 2.48x at 2Q11 but still well off the lows of 1Q09 of below 2x. The current multiple now sits in the lower quarter of the historic range (over the past 10 years) of between 2.0x-3.0x EV to FTM sales. Provided these valuation levels are sustained, a more normalized market environment should shift focus from concerns over the availability of capital and patient volumes toward specific growth opportunities in the med tech industry, a healthy sign in our opinion. For reference, historical averages for the industry have garnered a FTM high of around 3x, and the historic low of 1.8x was set in 1Q09 (lowest level in our 12-year historical analysis), with the prior historic low of roughly 2.2x in 2002. The average price to revenue multiple for acquisitions over the past 18 months is at roughly 3.3x TTM sales this period, staying consistent with 2Q11. Top line growth and margins were 9.2% and 63.6%, respectively, versus 9.6% and the gross margin was 65.7% for deals in 2Q11. With this background, we continue to believe the Medical Technology space offers select opportunities with attractive growth and profitability characteristics. Challenges to hospital spending will likely persist for the next few years (see our Sep 12 note), although the environment appears to be more stable sequentially. See Summary for discussion of individual stocks.
Companies mentioned:
ALGN $16.10 Buy ATEC $2.23 Neutral ATRC $10.49 Buy BABY $8.94 Buy BEAT $3.11 Buy CPTS $10.58 Buy CRY $4.37 Neutral DCTH $3.43 Buy ICUI $37.94 Buy INFU $0.99 Buy MASI $22.65 Buy MDCI $4.73 Neutral RTIX $3.43 Neutral SFE $15.01 Buy SYNO $17.55 Buy TRIB $8.92 Buy UPI $5.60 Neutral VOLC $30.32 Buy VRML $1.95 Buy
Page 9 of 10
113
MORNING SUMMARY
EQUITY RESEARCH
October 7, 2011
Disclosures
ROTH makes a market in shares of Harbin Electric, Inc., Wet Seal, Inc., The, bebe stores, inc. and Unigene Labs Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. Shares of Unigene Labs Inc. may be subject to the Securities and Exchange Commission's Penny Stock Rules, which may set forth sales practice requirements for certain low-priced securities. Shares of Unigene Labs Inc. may not be eligible for sale in one or more states. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral. On May 26, 2011, ROTH changed its rating system in order to incorporate coverage that is Under Review. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 10/07/11 Count Percent 51 26.8 9 14.1 0 0 2 16.7
Rating Buy [B] Neutral [N] Sell [S] Under Review [UR]
Count 190 64 1 12
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12-month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Under Review [UR]: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, indicates the temporary removal of the prior rating, price target and estimates for the security. Prior rating, price target and estimates should no longer be relied upon for UR-rated securities. Not Covered [NC]: ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. For important disclosure information regarding the companies in this summary report, please contact: The Director of Research at (800) 678-9147 or write to: ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Attention: Director of Research, 888 San Clemente Drive, Newport Beach, CA 92660 ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the express written permission of ROTH. Copyright 2011. Member: FINRA/SIPC.
Page 10 of 10
114
Mark Tobin, (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA, ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
Pro-forma EPS for all periods Revenue ($ millions) Yr Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q YEAR 2010 105.5A 105.4A 109.4A 106.2A 426.5A 2011E Curr 103.8A 131.4A 125.1E 130.2E 490.5E 2012E Curr 568.9E
30 25 20 15 10 5
May-11
Nov-10
Dec-10
Aug-11
Sep-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Jun-11
Apr-11
Oct-11
Jul-11
Price
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 4 to 5 of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 888 San Clemente Drive | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
115
VALUATION
Our $24 price target is based on the offer price of the proposed buy-out. Factors that may impede HRBN shares from reaching our price target include: s There are still numerous steps in the privatization process, some of which could lead to delays in completing the transaction. s A slow-down in China's economic growth and continued inflation could impact sales and compress margins.
RISKS
Change in macro policies in China. Two of HRBN's major catalysts, oil pump for oilfield and linear motors for urban metro lines, can be largely affected by central and local government policies. The development of urban railways can experience delays that out of control of HRBN, such as delay in construction. Volatile raw materials costs HRBN is subject to market fluctuations and volatility of two major raw materials, copper and steel respectively.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Harbin Electric, Inc. develops, engineers, manufactures and sells an array of industrial electric motors, customized linear motors, controller automation systems, automobile specialty micro-motors, and other special motors. The Company operates, through its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Harbin Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd (HTFE). The Company offers three key product lines: industrial electric motors, linear motors and their integrated application systems, and automobile specialty micro-motors.
Page 2 of 5
116
FY07
Revenue Linear Motors Automobile specialty micro-motors Controllers and other special motors Rotary industrial motors (Weihai Hengda) Simo Motor Total Revenue yoy growth % Cost of Sales Gross Profit gross margin% Operating Expenses Selling, General and Administrative Expenses as % of revenue Research and Development Expenses as % of revenue Income From Operations operating margin yoy growth % Other Income(Expenses) Interest Income/expense-net Realized Gain/loss on Sale of Marketable Securities Non-operating Income/expense, Net Other Income/expense-net Loss on cross currency hedge settlement Gain on debt extinguishment Change in Fair Value of Warrants Loss from disposal of subdivision Earnings before Taxes Provision for Income Tax effective tax rate Minority Interest Net Income (Loss) net margin % yoy growth % Non GAAP Net Income* net margin % yoy growth % Diluted EPS yoy growth % Non GAAP EPS yoy growth % Diluted weighted average shares outstanding EBITDA 36,626 10,464 18,313 0 0 65,403 62% (32,968) 32,435 49.6%
FY08
46,950 34,628 11,664 27,578 0 120,820 85% (73,343) 47,477 39.3%
Q1'09A
12,382 6,114 1,383 10,846 0 30,725 36.8% (19,801) 10,924 35.6%
Q2'09A
11,547 8,555 1,343 16,918 0 38,363 60.1% (25,500) 12,863 33.5%
Q3'09A
16,426 8,448 1,408 20,650 0 46,932 18.3% (30,171) 16,761 35.7%
Q4'09A
20,371 18,441 643 23,694 44,065 107,214 208.6% (71,150) 36,064 33.6%
FY09
60,726 41,558 4,777 72,109 44,065 223,234 84.8% (146,622) 76,612 34.3%
Q1'10A
19,831 16,245 1,899 22,468 45,042 105,485 243.3% (69,743) 35,742 33.9%
Q2'10A
20,138 15,183 2,003 23,512 44,599 105,436 174.8% (70,104) 35,332 33.5%
Q3'10A
19,356 15,310 2,296 23,511 48,881 109,355 133.0% (75,780) 33,575 30.7%
Q4'10A
17,009 14,030 1,468 23,757 49,942 106,206 -0.9% (75,142) 31,064 29.2%
FY10A
76,334 60,767 7,666 93,249 188,465 426,481 91.0% (290,768) 135,713 31.8%
Q1'11A
19,261 15,532 961 21,770 46,305 103,829 -1.6% (73,626) 30,204 29.1%
Q2'11A
24,662 18,210 1,313 29,201 58,016 131,402 24.6% (95,198) 36,204 27.6%
Q3'11E
22,118 20,475 1,378 25,862 55,236 125,069 14.4% (90,110) 34,959 28.0%
Q4'11E
21,426 22,050 1,468 27,321 57,932 130,198 22.6% (93,528) 36,670 28.2%
FY11E
87,467 76,267 5,120 104,154 217,490 490,498 15.0% (352,461) 138,037 28.1%
FY12E
101,165 97,020 5,352 121,523 243,820 568,879 16.0% (407,641) 161,238 28.3%
(6,620) 0 (189) 0 0 0 0 0 16,903 0 0.0% 16,903 25.8% -8% 16,903 25.8% 40% $0.91 -10% $0.91 37% 18,635 29,863
(6,066) 0 218 1,358 0 0 0 0 29,903 (4,524) 15.1% 25,379 21.0% 50% 25,379 21.0% 50% $1.19 31% $1.19 31% 21,324 42,066
(1,441) 0 0 539 0 0 2,573 0 9,697 (1,043) 10.8% 8,654 28.2% 62% 6,081 19.8% 14% $0.39 46% $0.27 2% 22,159 10,245
(843) 0 0 2,101 0 0 (14,015) 0 (3,941) (1,479) -37.5% (5,419) -14.1% -187% 7,423 19.3% 19% -$0.24 -178% $0.33 7% 22,341 10,688
(8,478) 0 0 1,063 (9,000) 4,155 (737) 0 46 (1,954) 4209.2% (1,908) -4.1% -125% 10,953 23.3% 41% -$0.07 -121% $0.40 20% 27,077 23,101
(1,553) 0 0 1,759 0 0 (1,037) 0 25,131 (3,320) 13.2% (3,491) 18,320 17.1% 203% 19,356 18.1% 220% $0.59 114% $0.62 127% 31,240 28,806
(12,316) 0 0 5,462 (9,000) 4,155 (13,215) 0 30,934 (7,796) 25.2% (3,491) 19,647 8.8% -23% 43,813 19.6% 73% $0.77 -36% $1.71 43% 25,672 72,840
(1,647) 0 0 1,119 0 0 (234) 0 26,969 (4,063) 15.1% (2,352) 20,554 19.5% 137% 20,788 19.7% 242% $0.66 68% $0.66 142% 31,354 31,037
(978) 0 0 1,327 0 0 1,657 (623) 29,466 (3,791) 12.9% (1) 25,675 24.4% -574% 24,641 23.4% 232% $0.82 N/A $0.79 137% 31,343 30,866
(1,133) 0 0 740 0 0 (302) 0 21,158 (3,296) 15.6% 11 17,873 16.3% -1037% 20,208 18.5% 85% $0.57 N/A $0.65 60% 31,282 24,943
(836) 0 0 2,304 0 0 (547) 0 16,569 (3,765) 22.7% (91) 12,714 12.0% -31% 19,603 18.5% 1% $0.41 -31% $0.62 1% 31,376 17,938
(4,593) 0 0 5,490 0 0 574 (623) 94,163 (14,915) 15.8% (2,432) 76,815 18.0% 291% 85,240 20.0% 95% $2.46 221% $2.72 60% 31,282 104,784
(1,924) 0 0 1,121 0 0 (434) 0 15,015 (4,195) 27.9% (14) 10,806 10.4% -47% 12,939 12.5% -38% $0.34 -47% $0.41 -38% 31,364 19,097
(1,259) 0 0 2,390 0 0 566 0 23,154 (5,986) 25.9% (6) 17,162 13.1% -33% 16,596 12.6% -33% $0.55 -33% $0.53 -33% 31,351 24,572
(1,500) 0 0 1,000 0 0 0 0 22,453 (5,613) 25.0% 0 16,839 13.5% -6% 16,839 13.5% -17% $0.54 -6% $0.54 -17% 31,445 26,153
(1,500) 0 0 1,000 0 0 0 0 24,061 (6,015) 25.0% 0 18,046 13.9% 42% 18,046 13.9% -8% $0.57 41% $0.57 -8% 31,540 27,761
(6,183) 0 0 5,511 0 0 132 0 84,683 (21,810) 25.8% (20) 62,853 12.8% -18% 64,421 13.1% -24% $2.00 -19% $2.05 -25% 31,425 97,583
(6,000) 0 0 4,000 0 0 0 0 111,983 (27,996) 25.0% 0 83,987 14.8% 34% 83,987 14.8% 30% $2.64 32% $2.64 29% 31,777 127,983
*Pro-forma net income excludes stock compensation, derivative valuation, and one-time items Source: Company reports, Roth Capital Partners estimates Mark Tobin (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com
Page 3 of 5
117
Disclosures:
ROTH makes a market in shares of Harbin Electric, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral. On May 26, 2011, ROTH changed its rating system in order to incorporate coverage that is Under Review.
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 10/06/11 Count Percent 49 25.8 9 14.3 0 0 2 16.7
Rating Buy [B] Neutral [N] Sell [S] Under Review [UR]
Count 190 63 1 12
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Under Review [UR]: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, indicates the temporary removal of the prior rating, price target and estimates for the security. Prior rating, price target and estimates should no longer be relied upon for UR-rated securities. Not Covered [NC]: ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts
Page 4 of 5
118
Page 5 of 5
119
HRBN has an Overall Risk/Reward Rating of Attractive because the stock offers more upside potential than downside risk. Figure 1 summarizes the five factors that drive our Overall Risk/Reward Rating for HRBN. Each factor offers insights into the profitability and valuation of HRBN. Positive EE means that economic EPS are positive because the company's ROIC is greater than WACC. The biggest adjustment that lowers economic EPS and is not captured in Reported EPS is Reported Net Assets. The combination of positive economic EPS with a cheap stock valuation drives a Risk/Reward Rating of Attractive for HRBN.
Performance
The value and success of our ratings are unrivaled. Click here for proof.
More Reports
Click here and enter a ticker to buy more of our reports.
Our Risk/Reward Rating system identifies disconnects between the market's expectations for future cash flows and current cash flows. This report provides a detailed explanation of each diagnostic criterion and each rating for HRBN. Appendices highlight Red Flags and explain our Risk/Reward Rating system.
Figure 1: New Constructs' Risk/Reward Rating
Quality of Earnings
Economic vs Reported EPS Misleading Trend False Positive Neutral EE Positive EE Rising EE $1.36 vs. $2.46 Positive EE Neutral EE Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Bottom Quintile 4th Quintile 3rd Quintile 2nd Quintile Top Quintile 21.0% 18.4% 8.7% FCF Yield <-5% -5%<-1% -1%<3% 3%<10% >10% 1.0% 2.1% -1.2%
Valuation
Price-to-EBV Ratio > 3.5 or -1 < 0 2.4 < 3.5 or < -1 1.6 < 2.4 1.1 < 1.6 0 < 1.1 0.80 2.0 4.2
Growth Appreciation Period (yrs)
Source: New Constructs, LLC. Page 1 Important Disclosure Information is contained on the last (two) page(s) of this report. The recipient of this report is directed to read these disclosures.
120
During the last Fiscal Year, the biggest driver of the difference between reported and economic EPS is Reported Net Assets.
Figure 2: Economic Earnings Per Share vs Reported EPS
Economic earnings and return on capital metrics are significantly more accurate when as-reported financial statements have been adjusted to reverse accounting distortions and Red Flags. The majority of the data required to reverse accounting distortions is available only in the Notes to the Financial Statements, which we analyze rigorously. Our core competency is gathering and analyzing all relevant financial data (from Financial Statements and the Notes) so that we can deliver earnings analyses that best represent the true profitability of businesses. See Figure 3 for a list of the Red Flag adjustments we make to a company's reported GAAP profits in order to reverse accounting distortions and arrive at a better measure of a firm's profits.
Figure 3: Accounting Issues and Red Flags that Distort GAAP
- Employee Stock Options - Pension Over/Under Funding - Excess Cash - Restructuring charges - Pooling Goodwill - Minority Interests
Source: New Constructs, LLC.
- Off-Balance-Sheet Financing - LIFO Reserve - Unrealized Gains/Losses - Goodwill Amortization - Unconsolidated Subsidiaries - Capitalized Expenses
121
Source: New Constructs, LLC. Note: If average invested capital is negative, ROIC is not calculated.
122
Source: New Constructs, LLC. Note: Dot on the line(s) in the chart marks the current value(s).
Figure 5 shows HRBN's FCF Yield over the past several years. HRBN's current FCF Yield is 1.0%. Free Cash Flow Yield equals unlevered FCF divided by enterprise value. The level of FCF does not always reflect the health of a business or its prospects. For example, a large amount of FCF can be a sign that a company has limited investment opportunities and, hence, limited growth prospects. On the other hand, negative FCF can be an attractive indication that a company has more investment opportunities than it can fund with cash from operations. Zero FCF could mean that the company generates just enough cash to internally fund its growth opportunities.
123
When stock prices are much higher than EBVs, the market predicts the economic profitability (as distinct from accounting profitability) of the company will meaningfully increase. When stock prices are much lower than EBVs, the market predicts the economic profitability of the company will meaningfully decrease. If the stock price equals the EBV, the market predicts the company's economic profitability will not change.
Source: New Constructs, LLC. Note: Dot on the line(s) in the chart marks the current value(s).
EBV measures the no-growth value of the company based on the current economic cash flows generated by the business. It is also known as the "pre-strategy value" of the company because it ignores the value attributable to future cash flows, which are, in theory, what business strategies should aim to improve. The Formula for EBV is: (NOPAT / WACC) + Excess Cash + Unconsolidated Subsidiary Assets + Net Assets from Discontinued Operations - Debt (incl. Operating Leases) Value of Outstanding Stock Options - Under (Over) funded Pensions - Preferred Capital Minority Interests. EBV per share equals EBV divided by shares outstanding.
124
We believe this stock has an Attractive Risk/Reward Rating because there is a relatively small difference between the expected financial performance implied by its market price and the company's historical performance. Figure 7 compares the future performance required to justify the company's stock market price to its historical performance. Specifically, Figure 7 shows: the current stock price of $20.65 implies that HRBN will not generate any growth in economic earnings.
Figure 7: Future Performance Required to Justify Valuation Performance Hurdles Historical Performance Market Expectations Default
based on current price
5 Yr
Comparing the required future performance to historical performance positions investors to asses the feasibility of market expectations and valuations. Stock Price Revenue CAGR Avg Economic Earnings Margin Growth Appreciation Period
Source: New Constructs, LLC Note: The Default Scenario is Based on the forecast set by the New Constructs analytical team, this scenario represents a likely financial performance path the company may follow to justify the current market price. Subscribers to our services may create alternate forecast scenarios based on their own estimates.
Historically, HRBN has generated a Revenue CAGR of -, 87.9%, and 91.0% and Economic Earnings Margins of -, 10.9%, and 11.7% over the past 5, 3 and 1 year(s). The market does not expect HRBN to achieve any future profit growth. See the Price-toEBV Per Share analysis for more detail. GAP measures the number of years implied by the stock price over which the company must maintain an edge over its current and future competitors. Specifically, GAP measures the number of years a company will earn returns on invested capital greater than its cost of capital on new investments. The law of competition dictates that a company can only grow its economic earnings for the finite period over which it can maintain a competitive advantage.
See Appendix 4 for the specific estimates used in this company's valuation model.
The Market-implied GAP of the S&P 500 is 20 years. For the Russell 1000, it is 23 years. HRBN has a GAP of < 1 year, which is much less than the indices. Based on this criterion, HRBN has a much greater chance of seeing price appreciation versus the indices. Our Overall Rating is Attractive. Other criteria (per pages above) in our rating system also indicate HRBN is an Attractive investment. GAP analysis comes from our dynamic discounted cash flow model, a multi-stage DCF model that values companies across multiple forecast horizons. Each forecast horizon (i.e., Growth AppreciationPeriod - GAP), assumes the company cannot grow profits beyond the GAP period. Our model exclusively uses no-growth terminal value assumptions for calculating the value of the stock for each GAP. The forecast drivers for our DCF model are: (1) Revenue Growth; (2) NOPBT Margin, (i.e. EBIT Margin with Adjustments*), (3) Cash Tax Rate, (4) Incremental Net Working and Fixed Capital needs. See Appendix 4 for the forecasts that drive our DCF model for this company.
Appendix 2 details each Adjustment made to this company's reported financial results.
125
126
FCF Yield
Ranks stocks based on their Free Cash Flow Yield. Values based on Latest Closing Stock price and Latest Fiscal Year. < -5% Very Dangerous = less than or equal to -5% -5% < -1% -1% < 3% 3% < 10% > 10% Dangerous = more than -5% but less than or equal to -1% Neutral = more than -1% but less than or equal to +3% Attractive = more than +3% but less than or equal to +10% Very Attractive = more than +10%
Price-to-EBV Ratio
Ranks stocks based on their Price-to-Economic Book Value Ratio. Values based on Latest Closing Stock price and Latest Fiscal Year. > 3.5 or -1 < 0 2.4 < 3.5 or < -1 1.6 < 2.4 1.1 < 1.6 0 < 1.1 Very Dangerous = greater than or equal to 3.5 or less than 0 but greater than -1 Dangerous = greater than or equal to 2.4 but less than 3.5 and less than or equal to -1 Neutral = greater than or equal to 1.6 but less than 2.4 Attractive = greater than or equal to 1.1 but less than 1.6 Very Attractive = greater than or equal to 0 but less than 1.1
127
2009 $19.65 $25.69 $8.90 $0.00 ($0.00) $0.00 ($6.47) $3.49 $51.25
2010 $76.82 ($0.06) $1.60 $0.00 ($0.00) $0.00 ($5.13) $2.43 $75.66
More information and detail on our adjustments is provided in our Company Valuation Models.
128
2008
$25.38 4.5 3.7% 0.0 0.0% (0.0) (0.0%) 0.0 0.0% (0.7) (0.6%) $0.00 0.0% $29.20
2009
$19.65 25.7 11.5% 8.9 4.0% 0.0 0.0% (0.0) (0.0%) 0.0 0.0% (6.5) (2.9%) $3.49 1.6% $51.25
2010
$76.82 (0.1) (0.0%) 1.6 0.4% 0.0 0.0% (0.0) (0.0%) 0.0 0.0% (5.1) (1.2%) $2.43 0.6% $75.66
129
Historical
2008 2009 2010 EY 1 EY 2 EY 3 EY 4
NOPBT Margin Cash Tax Rate Net Working Capital Delta as % of Revenue Delta Fixed Adjusted Assets Delta as % of Revenue Delta
130
Additional Information
Incorporated in July 2002, New Constructs is an independent publisher of investment research that provides clients with consulting, advisory and research services. We specialize in quality-of-earnings, forensic accounting and discounted cash flow valuation analyses for all U.S. public companies. We translate accounting data from 10Ks into economic financial statements, i.e. NOPAT, Invested Capital, and WACC, to create economic earnings models, which are necessary to understand the true profitability and valuation of companies. Visit the Free Archive to download samples of our research. New Constructs is a BBB accredited business and a member of the Investorside Research Association.
131
DISCLOSURES
New Constructs, LLC (together with any subsidiaries and/or affiliates, 'New Constructs') is an independent organization with no management ties to the companies it covers. None of the members of New Constructs' management team or the management team of any New Constructs' affiliate holds a seat on the Board of Directors of any of the companies New Constructs covers. New Constructs does not perform any investment or merchant banking functions and does not operate a trading desk. New Constructs' Stock Ownership Policy prevents any of its employees or managers from engaging in Insider Trading and restricts any trading whereby an employee may exploit inside information regarding our stock research. In addition, employees and managers of the company are bound by a code of ethics that restricts them from purchasing or selling a security that they know or should have known was under consideration for inclusion in a New Constructs report nor may they purchase or sell a security for the first 15 days after New Constructs issues a report on that security. New Constructs is affiliated with Novo Capital Management, LLC, the general partner of a hedge fund. At any particular time, New Constructs' research recommendations may not coincide with the hedge fund's holdings. However, in no event will the hedge fund receive any research information or recommendations in advance of the information that New Constructs provides to its other clients.
DISCLAIMERS
The information and opinions presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. New Constructs has not taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this report are suitable for any particular investor and nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice. This report includes general information that does not take into account your individual circumstance, financial situation or needs, nor does it represent a personal recommendation to you. The investments or services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about any such investments or investment services. Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by New Constructs to be reliable, but New Constructs makes no representation as to their accuracy, authority, usefulness, reliability, timeliness or completeness. New Constructs accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the information presented in this report, and New Constructs makes no warranty as to results that may be obtained from the information presented in this report. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Information and opinions contained in this report reflect a judgment at its original date of publication by New Constructs and are subject to change without notice. New Constructs may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and New Constructs is under no obligation to insure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. New Constructs' reports are intended for distribution to its professional and institutional investor customers. Recipients who are not professionals or institutional investor customers of New Constructs should seek the advice of their independent financial advisor prior to making any investment decision or for any necessary explanation of its contents. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would be subject New Constructs to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. This report may provide the addresses of websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to New Constructs own website material, New Constructs has not reviewed the linked site and takes no responsibility for the content therein. Such address or hyperlink (including addresses or hyperlinks to New Constructs own website material) is provided solely for your convenience and the information and content of the linked site do not in any way form part of this report. Accessing such websites or following such hyperlink through this report shall be at your own risk. All material in this report is the property of, and under copyright, of New Constructs. None of the contents, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, copied, or distributed or transmitted to any other party without the prior express written consent of New Constructs. All trademarks, service marks and logos used in this report are trademarks or service marks or registered trademarks or service marks of New Constructs. Copyright New Constructs, LLC 2003 through the present date. All rights reserved.
132
Mark Tobin, (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA, ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
| HRBN - $19.20 - NASDAQ | Buy HRBN: Sets Shareholder Vote; Privatization Appears On-Track for Completion
With Thursday afternoon's filing of its definitive proxy materials and the scheduling of the shareholder vote, we believe HRBN's privatization deal is on-track for completion. We expect shares will trade toward the $24 offer price as the Oct 29 vote date approaches. Thursday, after the market close, HRBN filed definitive proxy materials with the SEC, signifying that it has completed the SEC review process, which we viewed as the final meaningful hurdle associated with the buy-out process. The company has scheduled a special meeting of shareholders for Oct 29, during which shareholders can vote on the proposal to adopt the merger agreement. Based on the timelines of previous privatization transactions, we project the transaction will close within one week after a successful vote (est. Nov 5), after which Harbin Electric will become a privately-held company and its common stock will no longer be listed on Nasdaq.
Pro-forma EPS for all periods Revenue ($ millions) Yr Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q YEAR 2010 105.5A 105.4A 109.4A 106.2A 426.5A 2011E Curr 103.8A 131.4A 125.1E 130.2E 490.5E 2012E Curr 568.9E
30 25 20 15 10 5 Price
May-11
Nov-10
Dec-10
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 3 to 4 of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 888 San Clemente Drive | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
Aug-11
Sep-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jun-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
133
VALUATION
Our $24 PT is based on the offer price of the proposed buy-out. Factors that may impede HRBN shares from reaching our price target include: s There are still numerous steps in the privatization process, some of which could lead to delays in completing the transaction. s A slow-down in China''s economic growth and continued inflation could impact sales and compress margins.
RISKS
Change in macro policies in China. Two of HRBN's major catalysts, oil pump for oilfield and linear motors for urban metro lines, can be largely affected by central and local government policies. The development of urban railways can experience delays that out of control of HRBN, such as delay in construction. Volatile raw materials costs HRBN is subject to market fluctuations and volatility of two major raw materials, copper and steel respectively.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Harbin Electric, Inc. develops, engineers, manufactures and sells an array of industrial electric motors, customized linear motors, controller automation systems, automobile specialty micro-motors, and other special motors. The Company operates, through its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Harbin Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd (HTFE). The Company offers three key product lines: industrial electric motors, linear motors and their integrated application systems, and automobile specialty micro-motors.
Page 2 of 4
134
Disclosures:
ROTH makes a market in shares of Harbin Electric, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral. On May 26, 2011, ROTH changed its rating system in order to incorporate coverage that is Under Review.
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 09/29/11 Count Percent 49 26.1 9 14.8 0 0 2 14.3
Rating Buy [B] Neutral [N] Sell [S] Under Review [UR]
Count 188 61 1 14
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Under Review [UR]: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, indicates the temporary removal of the prior rating, price target and estimates for the security. Prior rating, price target and estimates should no longer be relied upon for UR-rated securities. Not Covered [NC]: ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts
Page 3 of 4
135
Page 4 of 4
136
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
China September 30, 2011
Closing Price (9/13/11): 12-Month Target Price: 52-Week Range: Market Cap (MM): Shares O/S (MM): Float (MM): Shares Short (MM): Avg. Vol. (000) Book Value/Share: Dividend/Yield: Risk Profile: Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Maxim Group FYE: December 2009A: GAAP 2010A: GAAP 2011E: GAAP 2012E: GAAP LT Earnings Growth Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Consensus-First Call FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Echo He, MD, PhD ehe@maximgrp.com $19.20 $24 $5.82 - $25.05 $602.9 31.4 14.5 8.3 2,340 $20.70 NA Medium Revenues ($M) 2011E 2012E $103.8A $122.1 $131.4A $157.4 $136.1 $155.3 $134.5 $153.8 $505.9 $588.6 Current Current EPS P/E $0.77 24.9 $2.46 7.8 $2.05 9.4 $2.49 7.7 10% - 15% GAAP Quarterly EPS Current 2011E $0.34A $0.55A $0.59 $0.57 Current 2012E $0.51 $0.70 $0.67 $0.60
Buy
Definitive proxy statement filed with a voting date set; Significant upside remains; Reiterate Buy and $24 price target
The SEC has approved HRBNs LBO. Yesterday after the Market close, HRBN filed a definitive proxy statement with the SEC for a special shareholder meeting, which now has been set up for October 29 at 9:00am EDT at 345 Park Avenue in New York. Shareholders will vote on the merger agreement into which HRBN entered on June 19, 2011, and in which a small group of management led by Chairman Tianfu Yang and a Hong Kongbased private equity firm, Abax, are buying out HRBN at $24/share. Shareholders on record as of the close of the market on September 13, 2011, are entitled to vote at the special meeting. The filing symbolizes the SECs approval of HRBNs LBO, the fourth such transaction that is likely to be successful during the recent wave of Chinese companies leaving the U.S. public market (mainly due to concerns of depressed valuation). The three onceU.S.-listed Chinese companies that have already concluded a successful LBO are Chemspec International Limited, Funtalk China Holdings Limited, and China Security and Surveillance Technology, Inc. It seems that the amended 10-K has served the purpose of satisfying the SEC for approval and the SEC did not find any material issues that could block HRBNs LBO. Together with the definitive proxy statement, HRBN also filed an amended 2010 10-K, the annual financial statement. Per our checks, all income statement and balance sheet line items remained unchanged. In the cash flow statement, there was a decrease in Change of Account Receivable, Change of Inventories, and Provision for Account Receivable but an increase in Provision for Inventory Reserve in 2009 and 2010. Regardless, there was no change in net cash flow and cash positions. These changes seem to be a result of reclassifications. We believe the majority of HRBNs voting shareholders are likely to vote for the merger transaction, realizing values of HRBNs shares at $24/share. However, the risk of high volatility on the name still exists in the month leading to the special meeting, because of the persistent misinformation on Chinese companies in general, as well as HRBN. That said, such volatility provides investors significant upside to the stock. We recommend a Buy on HRBN at current levels. We also recommend investors seek knowledgeable advice and make logical judgment.
$2.05 $2.49 GAAP Quarterly EPS 2011E 2012E $0.34A $0.51 $0.55A $0.70 $0.57 $0.67 $0.57 $0.60 $2.03 $2.57 (212) 895-3718
Maxim Group LLC 405 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10174 www.maximgrp.com
SEE PAGES 4-6 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS 137
Chinese Industrial Companies China Automotive CAAS FushiCopperweld FSIN Lihua International LIWA Wonder Auto WATG China Gerui Adv. Materia CHOP SORL Auto Parts SORL Average HK Listed China Motor Companies Harbin Power Equipment 1133-HK Shanghai Electric Group 2727-HK Dongfang Electric Group 1072-HK Chongqing Machinery & E2722-HK Shanghai Prime Machine 2345-HK Average
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ -$ $
$ $ $ -$ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
China Mainland Listed China Motor Companies Xiangtan Electric 600416-SH $ 1.43 Zhejiang Founder Motor 002196-SZ $ 2.26 BroadOcean 002249-SZ $ 2.37 Jiangte Electric Motor 002176-SZ $ 3.01 Shanghai Electric Group 601727-SH $ 0.91 Dongfang Electric Group 600875-SH $ 3.38 Average
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ -$
US/International Motor Companies Siemens SI $ 94.57 $ 82,156 ABB ABB $ 17.95 $ 41,106 Emerson Electric EMR $ 43.79 $ 32,981 Illinois Tool Works ITW $ 43.20 $ 21,707 Cummins CMI $ 86.45 $ 17,083 Magna International MGA $ 34.03 $ 3,837 Rockwell Automation ROK $ 57.45 $ 8,192 Lear Corporation LEA $ 44.08 $ 2,058 Regal Beloit RBC $ 49.04 $ 1,888 Smith AO AOS $ 34.22 $ 1,044 Franklin Electric FELE $ 37.35 $ 869 Average Source: Thomson One, Bloomberg and Maxim Group estimates.
$ 10.33 $ 1.56 $ 3.24 $ 3.79 $ 8.88 $ 4.61 $ 4.63 $ 5.44 n/a $ 2.15 $ 2.68
$ 10.54 $ 1.91 $ 3.66 $ 4.29 $ 10.12 $ 4.97 $ 5.29 $ 5.74 n/a -$ 2.93 $ 3.08
9.2x 11.5x 13.5x 11.4x 9.7x 7.4x 12.4x 8.1x -15.9x 13.9x 11.3x
9.0x 9.4x 12.0x 10.1x 8.5x 6.9x 10.9x 7.7x 11.7x 12.1x 9.8x
138
4.9 (2.3) 2.6 52.9% (0.1) 1.9% (0.2) 3.8% (0.3) 2.3 47.1% 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0% 2.3 0.0% 2.3 47.6% 2.2 6.4 6.4 0.36 0.36 0.1 2.4 48.6% 8.28
23.6 $ 387% (12.1) 11.6 350% 48.9% (0.3) 1.4% (1.3) 5.3% (1.6) 10.0 42.1% 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0% 10.0 0.0% 10.0 333% 42.3% 0.5 11.1 14.9 15.1
40.4 $ 71% (20.8) 19.7 70% 48.6% (1.5) 3.7% (4.2) 10.3% (5.7) 14.0 34.6% 0.0 (2.5) 4.4 18.4 0.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 84% 45.6% 1.0 19.5 16.6 18.3
19.8 20.1 19.3 17.0 76.3 19.3 24.7 23.2 22.1 89.3 100.5 60% 74% 18% -14% 27% -3% 22% 20% 30% 17% 13% 56% 19% 19% 18% 16% 18% 19% 19% 17% 16% 18% 17% 18.3 16.2 15.2 15.3 14.0 60.8 15.5 18.2 18.4 16.8 68.9 75.8 166% 78% 81% -18% 51% -4% 20% 20% 20% 13% 10% 28% 15% 14% 14% 13% 14% 15% 14% 13% 13% 14% 13% 22.5 23.6 23.5 23.7 93.2 21.8 29.2 29.4 29.7 110.0 131.0 107% 39% 14% 3% 31% -3% 24% 25% 25% 18% 19% 0% 21% 22% 21% 22% 22% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 45.0 44.6 48.9 49.9 188.5 46.3 58.0 63.6 64.9 232.8 275.9 13% 6% 11% 12% 11% 3% 30% 30% 30% 24% 18% 0% 0% 20% 43% 42% 45% 47% 44% 45% 44% 47% 48% 46% 47% 65.4 $ 120.8 $ 223.2 $ 105.5 $ 105.4 $ 109.4 $ 106.2 $ 426.5 $ 103.8 $ 131.4 $ 136.1 $ 134.5 $ 505.9 $ 588.6 62% 85% 85% 243% 175% 133% -1% 91% (1.6%) 25% 25% 27% 19% 16% (33.0) (73.3) (146.6) (69.7) (70.1) (75.8) (75.1) (290.8) (73.6) (95.2) (98.8) (98.1) (365.7) (430.7) 32.4 65% 49.6% (1.1) 1.6% (7.7) 11.7% (8.7) 23.7 36.3% (0.2) (6.6) (6.8) 16.9 0.0% 16.9 0.0% 16.9 (8%) 25.8% 7.2 13.2 17.1 18.6 47.5 46% 39.3% (1.2) 1.0% (11.9) 9.9% (13.1) 34.4 45% 28.5% 1.6 (6.1) (4.5) 29.9 (4.5) 15.1% 25.4 0.0% 25.4 50% 21.0% 9.5 40.0 20.2 21.3 76.6 61% 34.3% (2.1) 0.9% (18.7) 8.4% (20.8) 55.8 62% 25.0% 5.5 (12.3) (24.9) 30.9 (7.8) 25.2% 23.1 (3.5) 11.3% 19.6 (23%) 8.8% (0.1) 16.3 25.6 25.7 35.7 227% 33.9% (0.6) 0.6% (7.4) 7.0% (8.0) 27.7 246% 26.3% 1.1 (1.6) (0.8) 27.0 (4.1) 15.1% 22.9 (2.4) 8.7% 20.6 137% 19.5% 0.1 20.6 31.1 31.4 0.66 $ 0.66 $ 68% 3.3 0.3 31.3 6.84 35.3 175% 33.5% (0.4) 0.3% (6.9) 6.5% (7.2) 28.1 219% 26.6% 1.3 (1.0) 1.4 29.5 (3.8) 12.9% 25.7 (0.0) 0.0% 25.7 NM 24.4% 1.3 27.0 31.1 31.3 0.83 $ 0.82 $ NM 2.8 0.3 31.1 6.84 33.6 100% 30.7% (1.7) 1.5% (10.1) 9.2% (11.7) 21.9 68% 20.0% 0.7 (1.1) (0.7) 21.2 (3.3) 15.6% 17.9 (0.0) 0.1% 17.9 NM 16.3% 5.6 23.5 31.1 31.3 31.1 -14% 29.2% (0.8) 0.8% (14.6) 13.8% (15.4) 15.6 (39.7%) 14.7% 2.3 (0.8) 0.9 16.6 (3.8) 22.7% 12.8 (0.1) 0.4% 12.7 -31% 12.0% 6.7 19.4 31.1 31.3 135.7 77% 31.8% (3.4) 0.8% (39.0) 9.1% (42.4) 93.3 67% 21.9% 5.5 (4.6) 0.8 94.2 (14.9) 15.8% 79.2 (2.4) 2.6% 76.8 291% 18.0% 13.7 90.5 31.1 31.3 30.2 (15%) 29.1% (3.9) 3.7% (10.1) 9.7% (14.0) 16.3 (41%) 15.7% 1.1 (1.9) (1.2) 15.0 (4.2) 27.9% 10.8 (0.0) 0.1% 10.8 (47.4%) 10.4% 2.4 13.3 31.3 31.4 36.2 2% 27.6% (0.9) 0.7% (13.8) 10.5% (14.7) 21.5 (24%) 16.3% 2.4 (1.3) 1.7 23.2 (6.0) 25.9% 17.2 (0.0) 0.0% 17.2 (33.2%) 13.1% 7.0 24.2 31.3 31.4 37.3 11% 27.4% (1.1) 0.8% (13.6) 10.0% (14.7) 22.6 4% 16.6% 2.6 (1.3) 1.9 24.6 (6.1) 25.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 3% 13.5% 18.4 31.3 31.4 0.59 $ 0.59 $ 3% 2.9 0.1 25.6 6.51 36.5 17% 27.1% (1.1) 0.8% (13.5) 10.0% (14.5) 21.9 40% 16.3% 2.9 (1.3) 2.2 24.1 (6.0) 25.0% 18.1 0.0% 18.1 42% 13.4% 18.1 31.4 31.5 140.2 3% 27.7% (7.0) 1.4% (50.9) 10.1% (57.9) 82.3 -12% 16.3% 9.0 (5.7) 4.6 86.9 (22.4) 25.7% 64.5 (0.0) 0.0% 64.5 -16% 12.7% 64.5 31.3 31.4 157.9 13% 26.8% (5.0) 0.9% (52.2) 8.9% (57.2) 100.7 22% 17.1% 6.9 (5.0) 4.2 104.9 (26.2) 25.0% 78.6 0.0% 78.6 22% 13.4% 78.6 31.5 31.6 2.49 2.49 21% 14.7 1.3 116.7 19.8% 6.36
60.3 22% 27% 40.2 19% 18% 71.4 157% 23% 32% $ 44.5
$ $
1.11 $ 0.99 $ 1.01 $ 0.91 $ 53% (10%) 2.2 6.2 0.9 1.6 17.1 42.3% 7.80 31.4 48.1% 7.30
1.25 $ 0.77 $ 1.19 $ 0.77 $ 31% (35.7%) 7.7 17.0 1.8 1.2 43.8 36.3% 6.83 74.1 33.2% 6.84
0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.47 $ 0.35 $ 0.55 $ 0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.46 $ 0.34 $ 0.55 $ NM -25% 221% (47.4%) (33.2%) 3.1 2.3 11.5 2.9 2.9 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 25.2 6.84 18.2 6.60 105.8 24.8% 6.76 19.3 6.57 24.5 6.54
0.58 $ 2.06 $ 0.57 $ 2.05 $ 31% -16% 2.9 11.5 0.1 0.4 24.9 6.48 94.3 18.6% 6.48
139
Source: Investars.com
As of:
% of Coverage Universe
9/30/2011
% of Ratings for which Firm provided Banking Services in the last 12 months 39.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Performance* Buy Hold Sell Expected total return of 15% or more over next 12 months Expected total return of plus or minus 14% over next 12 months Expected total negative return of at least 15% over next 12 months
* Relative to Nasdaq Composite. An Under Review (UR) rating represents a stock that the Firm has temporarily placed under review due to a material change.
Maxim Group makes a market in Harbin Electric, Inc. Maxim Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Harbin Electric, Inc. in the next 3 months.
I, Echo He, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firms total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. Valuation Methods: Our Harbin Electric, Inc. valuation is based on the announced $24 per share price in the leverage buyout proposal. It is also supported by our comparable company analysis and discount cash flow method. Price Target and Investment Risks: Aside from general market and other economic risks, risks particular to our Harbin Electric, Inc. rating include: (1) Failure of the proposed LBO to be completed; (2) Slowdown of
140
RISK RATINGS
Risk ratings take into account both fundamental criteria and price volatility. Speculative Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to early-stage companies with minimal to no revenues, lack of earnings, balance sheet concerns, and/or a short operating history. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be significantly above the industry. Price Volatility: Because of the inherent fundamental criteria of the companies falling within this risk category, the price volatility is expected to be significant with the possibility that the investment could eventually be worthless. Speculative stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. High Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies having below-average revenue and earnings visibility, negative cash flow, and low market cap or public float. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be above the industry. Price volatility: The price volatility of companies falling within this category is expected to be above the industry. High-risk stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. Medium Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to approximate the industry average. Low Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have above-average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to be below the industry.
DISCLAIMERS
Some companies that Maxim Group LLC follows are emerging growth companies whose securities typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Maxim Group LLC research reports may not be suitable for some investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance.
141
142
Mark Tobin, (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Kun Tao, CFA, (949) 720-7149 ktao@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA, ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
China
U.S.-Listed China - Privatization, PE Investment, & Dual-Listing (7th Edition)
This report provides an update on the activity within the U.S.-listed China sector related to privatization, re-listing, PE investment, and duallisting. It includes a table with details for each company pursuing privatization. PRIVATIZATION UPDATE Activity has been mixed since our last edition (dated August 23, 2011). Two going-private deals (FTLK and CSR) were successfully completed; plus CFSG's merger was approved by its shareholders. Meanwhile, CISG announced the withdrawal of going-private proposal, citing unfavorable market conditions; and CHNG's deal also hit a snag on funding issues and a stock halt. Currently, there are six active privatization transactions within the U.S.-listed China sector. Since our initiation of this research series in March, six deals have successfully completed (TCM, SOKF TBV, FTLK, CSR, CPC), and two deals have been abandoned or withdrawn (QXM, CISG). With the successful transactions, , we believe interest among companies has increased and expect additional privatization announcements; likely paced by eventual loosening of China's credit markets. Meaningful progress in transactions continue to serves as major catalyst for price appreciation (or stability) under volatile market environment. Below are some major updates.
s s s
s s s
Aug 25 - FTLK announced completion of its going-private transaction (shareholder meeting approved the deal on Aug 22). Aug 29 - CADC announced that Special Committee retained William Blair & Company, L.L.C. as its financial advisor. Sep 02 - CHNG's Chairman & CEO announced the termination of exclusive agreement with private equity consortium while the goingprivate discussions continued. On Sep 21, the company filed an 8-K announcing non-reliance on previously issued financials due to findings of unauthorized related party loans. Stock has been halted by NASDAQ since. Sep 14 - CSR shareholders approved the privatization; deal closed on Sep 16. Sep 15 - CISG announced withdrawal of going-private proposal. Sep 22 - CFSG shareholders approved privatization.
POST-PRIVATIZATION RE-LISTING ACTIVITIES With Hongguo International's Hongkong IPO completed on Sep 23, we now have a good reference case on post-privatization activities. Hongguo International, a manufacturer and retailer of female footwear in China, raised HK$1.15 billion (~US$147.4 million) in its Hongkong IPO, which valued the company at HK$4.6 billion (~US$589.7 million). Citi and DBS acted as joint bookrunner. The company, previously listed on Singapore Stock Exchange, was taken private by its directors in May last year at the price of approximately US$130 million. The restructuring of business and "homecoming" listing offered a ~5 times expansion of company value. PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTMENT In mid August, China TMK Battery Systems Inc., a Shenzhen-based and OTCBB-listed battery manufacturer, completed a $16 million preferred stock equity financing agreement with China Development Industrial Bank (headquartered in Taiwan) and ZTE Energy Limited.
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 6 to 8 of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 888 San Clemente Drive | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
143
CHINA
Summary of On-going Deals
China Advanced Construction Materials CADC Chairman & CEO, Vice Chairman & COO Jul-26-2011 49.5% $2.65
(1)
China Fire & Security CFSG Bain Capital (Management's 59.1% stake already agreed to vote for the agreement) Mar-07-2011 59.1% $9.00 43.8% --17.3x 16.4x $8.75 (2.8%)
Fushi Copperweld FSIN Chariman & CEO, Abax Global Capital Nov-03-2010 29.2% $11.50 26.4% --8.8x 8.2x $5.65 (50.9%)
Harbin Electric HRBN Chairman & CEO, Abax Global Capital Oct-11-2010 40.6% $24.00 20.2% --8.8x 7.3x $20.32 (15.3%) Board approved, pending shareholder vote; Expected to close in Q4' 2011; Shareholder record date was set as Sept 13, 2011 Jun-20-2011 Jul-13-2011 >50% total & >50% of disinterested shares $750.0M (1) Debt: CDB-$400M, Abax note-$25M; (2) Equity: Abax cash-$38.8M, Mgmt rollover-$264.1M, Abax rollover-$40.6M China Development Bank: US$ 400M Abax: US$25M 23.2% Morgan Stanley & Co. / Lazard Freres & Co. LLC
Announcement Date Pre-deal Buyer/mgmt Ownership % Bid Price per Share or ADS Premium over previous day close Price Revision Date Revised Price P/E (TTM) P/E (NTM)
(2)
Jun-30-2011 14.0% $4.25 22.8% --5.8x 5.2x $1.60 (62.4%) Board informed; (exclusive partnership with Theme Investment terminated on Sept 2)
Apr-29-2011 31.6% $12.00 100.0% --10.9x 10.1x $0.60 (95.0%) Under board review; Shares halted starting Apr 11, 2011, later delisted from NYSE Amex and moved to OTC on August 18, 2011 Pending N/A N/A $360.0M
(2)
Shareholder meeting Under board review approved deal on Sept 22, 2011; Expected to close in Q4' 2011
Board Approval / Definitive Agreement Initial Filing of SC 13E3 Voting Requirement Implied Equity Value (3)
Source of funding
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Debt Financing Detail Post-deal Private Equity Ownership Board Financial Advisor Board Legal Advisor
(1)
N/A N/A N/A Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom, LLP
BofA, Citi, HSBC US$ 60M 75.8% Barclays Capital Shearman & Sterling LLP
N/A N/A Cowen and Company, LLC / Morgan Joseph TriArtisan LLC Not disclosed
Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP
Premium of bid price above the closing price on previous trading day before announcement (2) Valuation multiples are based on bid price over TTM and NTM EPS as of deal announcement date; data sourced from ROTH research if companies are covered, or Bloomberg if otherwise; NA indicates not available, NM indicates not meaningful (3) Implied Equity Value is calculated based on latest available bid price and shares outstanding number as disclosed (4) NASDAQ halted trading of CHNG stocks at a last price of $1.60 on Sept 21, 2011 Source: Company Filings, Bloomberg, ROTH Capital Partners
Page 2 of 8
144
CHINA
Announcement Date Pre-deal Buyer/mgmt Ownership % Bid Price per Share or ADS Price 1-Day Prior to Announcement Premium over previous day close (1) Price Revision Date Revised Price P/E (TTM) (3) P/E (NTM) Status
(3)
Oct-28-2010 23.0% $10.00 $7.66 31% --125.0x 90.9x Completed on Feb 24, 2011
SOKO Fitness & Spa Group SOKF Chairman & CEO (key mgmt) together with several existing institutional investors Jul-25-2011 90.8% $4.50 $3.70 22% --8.3x 7.9x
Tiens Biotech Group Tongjitang Chinese Medicines TCM TBV TIENS (USA) Hanmax (controlled CEO & Director Investment (owned by CEO) / Fosun by Chairman & CEO)
Mar-10-2008 39.2% $10.20 $6.60 55% --NM 11.3x Withdrawn on Jun 27, 2008
Withdrawn on Sept Completed on Aug Completed on Sept Completed on Aug Abandoned due to 15, 2011 19, 2011. 16, 2011 25, 2011 lack of quorum on Apr 7, 2011 Not involved Standard Chartered US$ 70M Mar-21-2011 May-03-2011 China Development Bank US$ 500M Apr-20-2011 May-31-2011 Not involved Not involved
Completed on Sep Completed on July Completed on Aug Completed on Apr 29, 2010 27, 2011. Short11, 2011. Short15, 2011 form merger. form merger. Not involved Not involved Not involved CITIC Bank US$ 25M Nov-01-2010 Nov-26-2010
Not involved
N/A
Oct-28-2010 N/A
N/A N/A
May-31-2011 Jun-14-2011
Jan-03-2011 Oct-22-2010 >50% of disinterested voting shareholders representing >75% of voting disinterested shares Not involved Not disclosed
Oct-12-2009 Nov-13-2009
N/A N/A
N/A Jun-27-2011
N/A N/A
Voting Requirement
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
27.2% Houlihan Lokey Shearman & Sterling LLP / Maples and Calder
77.7% Bank of America Merrill Lynch Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP / Maples and Calder
Not involved Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Sheppard, Mullin, Richter & Hampton LLP / Thorp Alberga
Not disclosed
N/A
N/A
NA
Premium of bid price above the closing price on previous trading day before announcement The offer price is 1.9 shares of XING common stock plus $0.8 in cash, we convert to dollar value using XING's closing price on Sept-8-2010 Valuation multiples are based on bid price over TTM and NTM EPS as of deal announcement date; data sourced from ROTH research if companies are covered, or Bloomberg if otherwise; NA indicates not available, NM indicates not meaningful Source: Company Filings, Bloomberg, ROTH Capital Partners
Page 3 of 8
145
CHINA
Factors that may impede share prices from reaching the target include the buyout process does not materializes for various reasons and substantial weakness in the companys fundamentals.
RISKS
Competition and oversupply in Beijing area: As a result of the strong economic growth and higher demand for construction in other areas of China, the company could face increased competition in its principal market, Beijing. This could result in an oversupply of concrete in the company''s principal market, which could result in reduced revenues and profitability.
Expansion failure due to lack of additional capital: The company may be unable to obtain the financing necessary to undertake and complete additional plant constructions or acquisitions.
Elimination of tax benefits: As a result of the company''s use of recycled raw materials to manufacture its products, the State Administration of Taxation granted the company VAT (6%) exemption from August 2009 until August 2011. In addition, the company has been awarded the Enterprise High-Tech Certificate, based on the company''s involvement in producing high-tech products, its research and development and technical services. As a result of this certification, the company''s effective tax rate has been reduced from 25% to 15%. Changes to these current tax policies could negative impact the company''s cash flow and earnings.
Government policy changes to affect industry consolidation: The company''s ability to operate successfully in China depends on acquisitions and new plants associated with construction projects. While it''s highly unlikely, any government policy change in consolidation requirement that discourages private companies'' expansion in construction material segment could negatively impacts the company''s survivability and growth strategy.
General country risks. Some of the general risks related to doing business in China include governmental interference with the economy, foreign currency control, international trade restrictions, co-existence of state-owned and private companies, and governmental control of important natural resources. From time to time, the government may enact new laws or issue administrative regulations to encourage or discourage the development of a particular industry.
RISKS
Change in macro policies. CFSG's major revenues come from the iron and steel industry, and significant changes in the steel industry can impact the company business prospect. Concerns on over-capacity, horizontal consolidations, accompanied with imposed tariffs on steel exports, have placed the industry under close monitoring by the central government. Concentration risk. The company's revenue recognition and profit generation is currently highly relied upon its recently signed $92M total solution contract with Wuhan Iron and Steel, accounting for more than half of quarterly revenue. Any unexpected changes or progress delay in project execution will significantly impact CFSG's financial performance. Extended customer payment period. Depressed steel prices and continuous market consolidation have caused many steel makers facing challenging market conditions. Accordingly, extended customer payment period may have led to recent CFSG decrease in cash and increasing A/R balance.
Page 4 of 8
146
CHINA
RISKS
Volatile raw material prices. Fushi's selling prices are highly dependent on copper, aluminum and steel prices. Changes in these prices may adversely impact demand for FSIN's bi-metallic products and its operational results. Execution/integration risk. FSIN continues to integrate its acquired operations, including Copperweld, Shanghai Hongtai, and Dalian Jinchuan. Its overall global expansion strategy faces execution risk due to a variety of factors. Going private transaction risk. In November 2010, FSIN's Board of Directors received a going private proposal from its Chairman (Mr. Fu) and Abax Global Capital to acquire all of the outstanding shares of common stock for $11.50 per share. The inability to complete this transaction could negatively impact share performance. Management turnover. The company's current CFO, Craig Studwell, was appointed in October 2010. While we view Mr. Studwell as highly experienced and capable, we note that his tenure with FSIN is limited and he has yet to oversee the filing of an audited annual report for the company. Litigation risk. Associated with its going private proposal, a shareholder class action lawsuit was filed against the Company and certain officers and directors. This lawsuit could consume financial and management resources, presenting financial and business risk.
RISKS
Change in macro policies in China. Two of HRBN's major catalysts, oil pump for oilfield and linear motors for urban metro lines, can be largely affected by central and local government policies. The development of urban railways can experience delays that out of control of HRBN, such as delay in construction. Volatile raw materials costs. HRBN is subject to market fluctuations and volatility of two major raw materials, copper and steel respectively.
Page 5 of 8
147
CHINA
Disclosures:
ROTH and/or its employees, officers, directors and owners own options, rights or warrants to purchase shares of Fushi Copperweld, Inc. stock. ROTH makes a market in shares of China Advanced Construction Materials, China Fire & Security Group, Inc., Fushi Copperweld, Inc. and Harbin Electric, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral. On May 26, 2011, ROTH changed its rating system in order to incorporate coverage that is Under Review.
Page 6 of 8
148
CHINA
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 09/26/11 Count Percent 49 26.3 9 14.5 0 0 2 12.5
Rating Buy [B] Neutral [N] Sell [S] Under Review [UR]
Count 186 62 1 16
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months.
Page 7 of 8
149
CHINA
Page 8 of 8
150
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
China September 14, 2011
Closing Price (9/13/11): 12-Month Target Price: 52-Week Range: Market Cap (MM): Shares O/S (MM): Float (MM): Shares Short (MM): Avg. Vol. (000) Book Value/Share: Dividend/Yield: Risk Profile: Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Maxim Group FYE: December 2009A: GAAP 2010A: GAAP 2011E: GAAP 2012E: GAAP LT Earnings Growth Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Consensus-First Call FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Echo He, MD, PhD ehe@maximgrp.com $19.70 $24 $5.82 - $25.05 $618.6 31.4 14.5 8.3 2,340 $20.70 NA Medium Revenues ($M) 2011E 2012E $103.8A $122.1 $131.4A $157.4 $136.1 $155.3 $134.5 $153.8 $505.9 $588.6 Current Current EPS P/E $0.77 25.6 $2.46 8.0 $2.05 9.6 $2.49 7.9 10% - 15% GAAP Quarterly EPS Current 2011E $0.34A $0.55A $0.59 $0.57 Current 2012E $0.51 $0.70 $0.67 $0.60
Buy
There is still money to make after the record date; Reiterate Buy and $24 price target
The company is likely very close to receiving the SEC approval of the LBO. Yesterday HRBN filed its third amendment of 13E-3 with the SEC, together with another revised version of the preliminary proxy statement for a special shareholder meeting. Since its original 13E-3 filed on July 13, 2011, HRBN filed the first and second amendment on August 15 and 29, respectively. We believe the definitive proxy statement could be filed in the near future. A voting date announcement is within reach. Meanwhile, yesterday was also HRBNs record date for stockholders entitled to vote for the Merger Agreement in the special shareholder meeting. The company has not yet announced the date of the special shareholder meeting. However, it could announce it together with a definitive filing of 13E-3. Another U.S. listed Chinese company becomes private. Today, China Security and Surveillance Technology, Inc. (CSR NR) announced that a majority (69.3%) of its shareholders voted in favor of the definitive agreement to go private it entered on May 3, 2011. This is another successful example of a going private transaction among U.S. listed Chinese companies, following Chemspec International Limited and Funtalk China Holdings Limited, which already closed their going private transactions on August 19 and September 1, 2011, respectively. There is still money to make out of the trading gap between HRBNs current price and its LBO offer price of $24/share. In our view, HRBNs going private transaction is not materially different from those of other Chinese companies, except that HRBN is perhaps the company that has received the most public attention. It is possible that the overflow of information has resulted in considerable misjudgment on HRBNs case; meanwhile, investors could still take advantage of the market inefficiency. As the SEC approval process is moving forward, we are increasingly leaning to a successful outcome of the companys going private transaction. We reiterate our Buy rating and $24 price target.
$2.05 $2.49 GAAP Quarterly EPS 2011E 2012E $0.34A $0.51 $0.55A $0.70 $0.57 $0.67 $0.57 $0.60 $2.03 $2.57 (212) 895-3718
Maxim Group LLC 405 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10174 www.maximgrp.com
SEE PAGES 4-6 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS 151
Chinese Industrial Companies China Automotive CAAS FushiCopperweld FSIN Lihua International LIWA Wonder Auto WATG China Gerui Adv. Materia CHOP SORL Auto Parts SORL Average HK Listed China Motor Companies Harbin Power Equipment 1133-HK Shanghai Electric Group 2727-HK Dongfang Electric Group 1072-HK Chongqing Machinery & E2722-HK Shanghai Prime Machine 2345-HK Average
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ -$ $
$ $ $ -$ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
China Mainland Listed China Motor Companies Xiangtan Electric 600416-SH $ 1.34 Zhejiang Founder Motor 002196-SZ $ 2.34 BroadOcean 002249-SZ $ 2.75 Jiangte Electric Motor 002176-SZ $ 3.10 Shanghai Electric Group 601727-SH $ 0.87 Dongfang Electric Group 600875-SH $ 3.41 Average
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ -$
US/International Motor Companies Siemens SI $ 90.00 $ 78,186 ABB ABB $ 18.03 $ 41,289 Emerson Electric EMR $ 44.65 $ 33,629 Illinois Tool Works ITW $ 43.41 $ 21,813 Cummins CMI $ 92.20 $ 18,219 Magna International MGA $ 36.09 $ 4,070 Rockwell Automation ROK $ 58.18 $ 8,296 Lear Corporation LEA $ 42.75 $ 1,996 Regal Beloit RBC $ 57.35 $ 2,208 Smith AO AOS $ 36.01 $ 1,099 Franklin Electric FELE $ 38.56 $ 897 Average Source: Thomson One, Bloomberg and Maxim Group estimates.
$ 6.09 $ 1.25 $ 2.69 $ 3.08 $ 5.17 $ 4.34 $ 3.05 $ 4.42 n/a $ 2.87 $ 1.94
$ 10.46 $ 1.58 $ 3.24 $ 3.79 $ 8.90 $ 4.65 $ 4.63 $ 5.47 n/a $ 2.15 $ 2.68
$ 10.68 $ 1.93 $ 3.69 $ 4.35 $ 10.36 $ 5.05 $ 5.36 $ 5.82 n/a -$ 2.92 $ 3.08
14.8x 14.4x 16.6x 14.1x 17.8x 8.3x 19.1x 9.7x -12.5x 19.9x 14.7x
8.6x 11.4x 13.8x 11.5x 10.4x 7.8x 12.6x 7.8x -16.8x 14.4x 11.5x
8.4x 9.4x 12.1x 10.0x 8.9x 7.1x 10.8x 7.3x 12.3x 12.5x 9.9x
152
19.8 20.1 19.3 17.0 76.3 19.3 24.7 23.2 22.1 89.3 100.5 60% 74% 18% -14% 27% -3% 22% 20% 30% 17% 13% 56% 19% 19% 18% 16% 18% 19% 19% 17% 16% 18% 17% 18.3 16.2 15.2 15.3 14.0 60.8 15.5 18.2 18.4 16.8 68.9 75.8 166% 78% 81% -18% 51% -4% 20% 20% 20% 13% 10% 28% 15% 14% 14% 13% 14% 15% 14% 13% 13% 14% 13% 22.5 23.6 23.5 23.7 93.2 21.8 29.2 29.4 29.7 110.0 131.0 107% 39% 14% 3% 31% -3% 24% 25% 25% 18% 19% 0% 21% 22% 21% 22% 22% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 45.0 44.6 48.9 49.9 188.5 46.3 58.0 63.6 64.9 232.8 275.9 13% 6% 11% 12% 11% 3% 30% 30% 30% 24% 18% 0% 0% 20% 43% 42% 45% 47% 44% 45% 44% 47% 48% 46% 47% 4.9 $ 23.6 $ 40.4 $ 65.4 $ 120.8 $ 223.2 $ 105.5 $ 105.4 $ 109.4 $ 106.2 $ 426.5 $ 103.8 $ 131.4 $ 136.1 $ 134.5 $ 505.9 $ 588.6 387% 71% 62% 85% 85% 243% 175% 133% -1% 91% (1.6%) 25% 25% 27% 19% 16% (2.3) (12.1) (20.8) (33.0) (73.3) (146.6) (69.7) (70.1) (75.8) (75.1) (290.8) (73.6) (95.2) (98.8) (98.1) (365.7) (430.7) 2.6 52.9% (0.1) 1.9% (0.2) 3.8% (0.3) 2.3 47.1% 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0% 2.3 0.0% 2.3 47.6% 2.2 6.4 6.4 0.36 0.36 0.1 2.4 48.6% 8.28 $ $ 11.6 350% 48.9% (0.3) 1.4% (1.3) 5.3% (1.6) 10.0 42.1% 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0% 10.0 0.0% 10.0 333% 42.3% 0.5 11.1 14.9 15.1 0.67 $ 0.66 $ 82% 0.4 10.3 43.7% 8.07 19.7 70% 48.6% (1.5) 3.7% (4.2) 10.3% (5.7) 14.0 34.6% 0.0 (2.5) 4.4 18.4 0.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 84% 45.6% 1.0 19.5 16.6 18.3 32.4 65% 49.6% (1.1) 1.6% (7.7) 11.7% (8.7) 23.7 36.3% (0.2) (6.6) (6.8) 16.9 0.0% 16.9 0.0% 16.9 (8%) 25.8% 7.2 13.2 17.1 18.6 47.5 46% 39.3% (1.2) 1.0% (11.9) 9.9% (13.1) 34.4 45% 28.5% 1.6 (6.1) (4.5) 29.9 (4.5) 15.1% 25.4 0.0% 25.4 50% 21.0% 9.5 40.0 20.2 21.3 76.6 61% 34.3% (2.1) 0.9% (18.7) 8.4% (20.8) 55.8 62% 25.0% 5.5 (12.3) (24.9) 30.9 (7.8) 25.2% 23.1 (3.5) 11.3% 19.6 (23%) 8.8% (0.1) 16.3 25.6 25.7 35.7 227% 33.9% (0.6) 0.6% (7.4) 7.0% (8.0) 27.7 246% 26.3% 1.1 (1.6) (0.8) 27.0 (4.1) 15.1% 22.9 (2.4) 8.7% 20.6 137% 19.5% 0.1 20.6 31.1 31.4 0.66 $ 0.66 $ 68% 3.3 0.3 31.3 6.84 35.3 175% 33.5% (0.4) 0.3% (6.9) 6.5% (7.2) 28.1 219% 26.6% 1.3 (1.0) 1.4 29.5 (3.8) 12.9% 25.7 (0.0) 0.0% 25.7 NM 24.4% 1.3 27.0 31.1 31.3 0.83 $ 0.82 $ NM 2.8 0.3 31.1 6.84 33.6 100% 30.7% (1.7) 1.5% (10.1) 9.2% (11.7) 21.9 68% 20.0% 0.7 (1.1) (0.7) 21.2 (3.3) 15.6% 17.9 (0.0) 0.1% 17.9 NM 16.3% 5.6 23.5 31.1 31.3 31.1 -14% 29.2% (0.8) 0.8% (14.6) 13.8% (15.4) 15.6 (39.7%) 14.7% 2.3 (0.8) 0.9 16.6 (3.8) 22.7% 12.8 (0.1) 0.4% 12.7 -31% 12.0% 6.7 19.4 31.1 31.3 135.7 77% 31.8% (3.4) 0.8% (39.0) 9.1% (42.4) 93.3 67% 21.9% 5.5 (4.6) 0.8 94.2 (14.9) 15.8% 79.2 (2.4) 2.6% 76.8 291% 18.0% 13.7 90.5 31.1 31.3 30.2 (15%) 29.1% (3.9) 3.7% (10.1) 9.7% (14.0) 16.3 (41%) 15.7% 1.1 (1.9) (1.2) 15.0 (4.2) 27.9% 10.8 (0.0) 0.1% 10.8 (47.4%) 10.4% 2.4 13.3 31.3 31.4 36.2 2% 27.6% (0.9) 0.7% (13.8) 10.5% (14.7) 21.5 (24%) 16.3% 2.4 (1.3) 1.7 23.2 (6.0) 25.9% 17.2 (0.0) 0.0% 17.2 (33.2%) 13.1% 7.0 24.2 31.3 31.4 37.3 11% 27.4% (1.1) 0.8% (13.6) 10.0% (14.7) 22.6 4% 16.6% 2.6 (1.3) 1.9 24.6 (6.1) 25.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 3% 13.5% 18.4 31.3 31.4 0.59 $ 0.59 $ 3% 2.9 0.1 25.6 6.51 36.5 17% 27.1% (1.1) 0.8% (13.5) 10.0% (14.5) 21.9 40% 16.3% 2.9 (1.3) 2.2 24.1 (6.0) 25.0% 18.1 0.0% 18.1 42% 13.4% 18.1 31.4 31.5 140.2 3% 27.7% (7.0) 1.4% (50.9) 10.1% (57.9) 82.3 -12% 16.3% 9.0 (5.7) 4.6 86.9 (22.4) 25.7% 64.5 (0.0) 0.0% 64.5 -16% 12.7% 64.5 31.3 31.4 157.9 13% 26.8% (5.0) 0.9% (52.2) 8.9% (57.2) 100.7 22% 17.1% 6.9 (5.0) 4.2 104.9 (26.2) 25.0% 78.6 0.0% 78.6 22% 13.4% 78.6 31.5 31.6 2.49 2.49 21% 14.7 1.3 116.7 19.8% 6.36
60.3 22% 27% 40.2 19% 18% 71.4 157% 23% 32% $ 44.5
1.11 $ 0.99 $ 1.01 $ 0.91 $ 53% (10%) 2.2 6.2 0.9 1.6 17.1 42.3% 7.80 31.4 48.1% 7.30
1.25 $ 0.77 $ 1.19 $ 0.77 $ 31% (35.7%) 7.7 17.0 1.8 1.2 43.8 36.3% 6.83 74.1 33.2% 6.84
0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.47 $ 0.35 $ 0.55 $ 0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.46 $ 0.34 $ 0.55 $ NM -25% 221% (47.4%) (33.2%) 3.1 2.3 11.5 2.9 2.9 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 25.2 6.84 18.2 6.60 105.8 24.8% 6.76 19.3 6.57 24.5 6.54
0.58 $ 2.06 $ 0.57 $ 2.05 $ 31% -16% 2.9 11.5 0.1 0.4 24.9 6.48 94.3 18.6% 6.48
153
Source: Investars.com
As of:
% of Coverage Universe
9/14/2011
% of Ratings for which Firm provided Banking Services in the last 12 months 24.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Performance* Buy Hold Sell Expected total return of 15% or more over next 12 months Expected total return of plus or minus 14% over next 12 months Expected total negative return of at least 15% over next 12 months
* Relative to Nasdaq Composite. An Under Review (UR) rating represents a stock that the Firm has temporarily placed under review due to a material change.
Maxim Group makes a market in Harbin Electric, Inc. Maxim Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Harbin Electric, Inc. in the next 3 months.
I, Echo He, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firms total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. Valuation Methods: Our Harbin Electric, Inc. valuation is based on the announced $24 per share price in the leverage buyout proposal. It is also supported by our comparable company analysis and discount cash flow method. Price Target and Investment Risks: Aside from general market and other economic risks, risks particular to our Harbin Electric, Inc. rating include: (1) Failure of the proposed LBO to be completed; (2) Slowdown of Chinese economy; (3) Raw material price increases; (4) High competition in industrial motor market; (5) Difficulties of developing linear motor market; and (6) Potential equity issuance.
154
RISK RATINGS
Risk ratings take into account both fundamental criteria and price volatility. Speculative Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to early-stage companies with minimal to no revenues, lack of earnings, balance sheet concerns, and/or a short operating history. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be significantly above the industry. Price Volatility: Because of the inherent fundamental criteria of the companies falling within this risk category, the price volatility is expected to be significant with the possibility that the investment could eventually be worthless. Speculative stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. High Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies having below-average revenue and earnings visibility, negative cash flow, and low market cap or public float. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be above the industry. Price volatility: The price volatility of companies falling within this category is expected to be above the industry. High-risk stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. Medium Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to approximate the industry average. Low Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have above-average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to be below the industry.
DISCLAIMERS
Some companies that Maxim Group LLC follows are emerging growth companies whose securities typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Maxim Group LLC research reports may not be suitable for some investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance. This communication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities mentioned herein. This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Maxim Group, LLC (Maxim).
155
156
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
China August 25, 2011
Closing Price (8/24/11): 12-Month Target Price: 52-Week Range: Market Cap (MM): Shares O/S (MM): Float (MM): Shares Short (MM): Avg. Vol. (000) Book Value/Share: Dividend/Yield: Risk Profile: Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Maxim Group FYE: December 2009A: GAAP 2010A: GAAP 2011E: GAAP 2012E: GAAP LT Earnings Growth $17.20 $24 $5.82 - $25.05 $540.1 31.4 17.6 7.2 2,180 $20.70 NA Medium Revenues ($M) 2011E 2012E $103.8A $122.1 $131.4A $157.4 $136.1 $155.3 $134.5 $153.8 $505.9 $588.6 Current Prior Current EPS EPS P/E $0.77 22.3 $2.46 7.0 $2.05 8.4 $2.49 6.9 10% - 15% GAAP Quarterly EPS Current 2012E $0.51 $0.70 $0.67 $0.60 $2.49 2012E $0.51 $0.70 $0.67 $0.60 $2.57 (212) 895-3718
Buy
The LBO process will likely close sooner than we expected; Reiterate Buy and $24 price target
Where is HRBN on its regulatory approval process of going private transaction? On July 13, 2011, HRBN filed its original 13E-3 together with a Preliminary Proxy Statement with the SEC. A month later on August 15, the company filed an amended 13E-3 with the SEC, with more supporting documents from its advisors, Morgan Stanley and Lazard. On the same day, HRBN set a record date for stockholders entitled to vote for the Merger Agreement at September 13, 2011. An example of a successful going private transaction. On August 22, 2011, another U.S.-listed Chinese company, Funtalk China Holdings Limited (FTLK NR), announced that a majority of its shareholders voted in favor of the definitive agreement of going private it entered on May 31, 2011. From FTLKs first filing of 13E-3 on June 14, 2011, it took the SEC about a month and a half, with four rounds of questioning, to grant an approval. The swift move of FTLKs process may be partially due to the buying parties, mainly top management, already owning 77% of the outstanding shares. City Group and Bank of America Merrill Lynch served as the advisor for the buying consortium and independent committee, respectively.
Other Chinese companies moved forward too. On August 19, 2011, Chemspec International Limited, a Chinese company previously listed on NYSE, announced the close of its going private transaction and it was subsequently delisted from the public exchange. It took Chemspec three and a half months to close the transaction from the first filing of 13E-3. In addition, on August 11, 2011, China Security and Surveillance Technology, Inc. (CSR NR) announced the filing of a definitive proxy statement in connection with its going private merger agreement. Currently CSR already passed its record date of August 5, 2011 and is scheduled to vote for the merger on September 14, 2011.
Maxim Group Current FYE: December 2011E 1Q $0.34A 2Q $0.55A 3Q $0.59 4Q $0.57 FY $2.05 Consensus-First Call FYE: December 2011E 1Q $0.34A 2Q $0.55A 3Q $0.57 4Q $0.57 $2.03 FY Echo He, MD, PhD ehe@maximgrp.com
In our view, HRBNs going private transaction is not materially different from those of other Chinese companies. HRBN has most likely fulfilled requirements for the transaction and is moving forward with the SEC approval process. Based on the speed of its progress, we believe the closing of the transaction could be sooner than we previously estimated, which was towards the end of 2011. Our Buy rating and $24 price target are mainly based on a favorable outcome of HRBNs LBO, which has an established offer price of $24/share. We believe the persistent gap, currently ~28%, to the LBO offering price creates buying opportunities.
Maxim Group LLC 405 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10174 www.maximgrp.com
SEE PAGES 4-6 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS 157
Chinese Industrial Companies China Automotive CAAS FushiCopperweld FSIN Lihua International LIWA Wonder Auto WATG China Gerui Adv. Materia CHOP SORL Auto Parts SORL Average HK Listed China Motor Companies Harbin Power Equipment 1133-HK Shanghai Electric Group 2727-HK Dongfang Electric Group 1072-HK Chongqing Machinery & E2722-HK Shanghai Prime Machine 2345-HK Average
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
China Mainland Listed China Motor Companies Xiangtan Electric 600416-SH $ 1.53 Zhejiang Founder Motor 002196-SZ $ 2.51 BroadOcean 002249-SZ $ 3.13 Jiangte Electric Motor 002176-SZ $ 3.56 Shanghai Electric Group 601727-SH $ 0.90 Dongfang Electric Group 600875-SH $ 3.63 Average
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ -$
US/International Motor Companies Siemens SI $ 103.24 $ 89,688 ABB ABB $ 20.59 $ 47,151 Emerson Electric EMR $ 45.79 $ 34,488 Illinois Tool Works ITW $ 44.73 $ 22,476 Cummins CMI $ 86.58 $ 17,108 Magna International MGA $ 36.41 $ 4,106 Rockwell Automation ROK $ 58.93 $ 8,403 Lear Corporation LEA $ 43.85 $ 2,047 Regal Beloit RBC $ 52.90 $ 2,037 Smith AO AOS $ 36.31 $ 1,108 Franklin Electric FELE $ 41.47 $ 965 Average Source: Thomson One, Bloomberg and Maxim Group estimates.
$ 6.09 $ 1.25 $ 2.69 $ 3.08 $ 5.17 $ 4.34 $ 3.05 $ 4.42 n/a $ 2.87 $ 1.94
$ 10.46 $ 1.58 $ 3.24 $ 3.81 $ 8.89 $ 4.65 $ 4.64 $ 5.46 n/a $ 2.18 $ 2.68
$ 10.66 $ 1.91 $ 3.70 $ 4.39 $ 10.53 $ 5.09 $ 5.37 $ 5.83 n/a -$ 2.97 $ 3.08
17.0x 16.5x 17.0x 14.5x 16.7x 8.4x 19.3x 9.9x -12.7x 21.4x 15.3x
9.9x 13.1x 14.1x 11.7x 9.7x 7.8x 12.7x 8.0x -16.6x 15.5x 11.9x
9.7x 10.8x 12.4x 10.2x 8.2x 7.2x 11.0x 7.5x 12.2x 13.5x 10.3x
158
19.8 20.1 19.3 17.0 76.3 19.3 24.7 23.2 22.1 89.3 100.5 60% 74% 18% -14% 27% -3% 22% 20% 30% 17% 13% 56% 19% 19% 18% 16% 18% 19% 19% 17% 16% 18% 17% 18.3 16.2 15.2 15.3 14.0 60.8 15.5 18.2 18.4 16.8 68.9 75.8 166% 78% 81% -18% 51% -4% 20% 20% 20% 13% 10% 28% 15% 14% 14% 13% 14% 15% 14% 13% 13% 14% 13% 22.5 23.6 23.5 23.7 93.2 21.8 29.2 29.4 29.7 110.0 131.0 107% 39% 14% 3% 31% -3% 24% 25% 25% 18% 19% 0% 21% 22% 21% 22% 22% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 45.0 44.6 48.9 49.9 188.5 46.3 58.0 63.6 64.9 232.8 275.9 13% 6% 11% 12% 11% 3% 30% 30% 30% 24% 18% 0% 0% 20% 43% 42% 45% 47% 44% 45% 44% 47% 48% 46% 47% 4.9 $ 23.6 $ 40.4 $ 65.4 $ 120.8 $ 223.2 $ 105.5 $ 105.4 $ 109.4 $ 106.2 $ 426.5 $ 103.8 $ 131.4 $ 136.1 $ 134.5 $ 505.9 $ 588.6 387% 71% 62% 85% 85% 243% 175% 133% -1% 91% (1.6%) 25% 25% 27% 19% 16% (2.3) (12.1) (20.8) (33.0) (73.3) (146.6) (69.7) (70.1) (75.8) (75.1) (290.8) (73.6) (95.2) (98.8) (98.1) (365.7) (430.7) 2.6 52.9% (0.1) 1.9% (0.2) 3.8% (0.3) 2.3 47.1% 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0% 2.3 0.0% 2.3 47.6% 2.2 6.4 6.4 0.36 0.36 0.1 2.4 48.6% 8.28 $ $ 11.6 350% 48.9% (0.3) 1.4% (1.3) 5.3% (1.6) 10.0 42.1% 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0% 10.0 0.0% 10.0 333% 42.3% 0.5 11.1 14.9 15.1 0.67 $ 0.66 $ 82% 0.4 10.3 43.7% 8.07 19.7 70% 48.6% (1.5) 3.7% (4.2) 10.3% (5.7) 14.0 34.6% 0.0 (2.5) 4.4 18.4 0.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 84% 45.6% 1.0 19.5 16.6 18.3 32.4 65% 49.6% (1.1) 1.6% (7.7) 11.7% (8.7) 23.7 36.3% (0.2) (6.6) (6.8) 16.9 0.0% 16.9 0.0% 16.9 (8%) 25.8% 7.2 13.2 17.1 18.6 47.5 46% 39.3% (1.2) 1.0% (11.9) 9.9% (13.1) 34.4 45% 28.5% 1.6 (6.1) (4.5) 29.9 (4.5) 15.1% 25.4 0.0% 25.4 50% 21.0% 9.5 40.0 20.2 21.3 76.6 61% 34.3% (2.1) 0.9% (18.7) 8.4% (20.8) 55.8 62% 25.0% 5.5 (12.3) (24.9) 30.9 (7.8) 25.2% 23.1 (3.5) 11.3% 19.6 (23%) 8.8% (0.1) 16.3 25.6 25.7 35.7 227% 33.9% (0.6) 0.6% (7.4) 7.0% (8.0) 27.7 246% 26.3% 1.1 (1.6) (0.8) 27.0 (4.1) 15.1% 22.9 (2.4) 8.7% 20.6 137% 19.5% 0.1 20.6 31.1 31.4 0.66 $ 0.66 $ 68% 3.3 0.3 31.3 6.84 35.3 175% 33.5% (0.4) 0.3% (6.9) 6.5% (7.2) 28.1 219% 26.6% 1.3 (1.0) 1.4 29.5 (3.8) 12.9% 25.7 (0.0) 0.0% 25.7 NM 24.4% 1.3 27.0 31.1 31.3 0.83 $ 0.82 $ NM 2.8 0.3 31.1 6.84 33.6 100% 30.7% (1.7) 1.5% (10.1) 9.2% (11.7) 21.9 68% 20.0% 0.7 (1.1) (0.7) 21.2 (3.3) 15.6% 17.9 (0.0) 0.1% 17.9 NM 16.3% 5.6 23.5 31.1 31.3 31.1 -14% 29.2% (0.8) 0.8% (14.6) 13.8% (15.4) 15.6 (39.7%) 14.7% 2.3 (0.8) 0.9 16.6 (3.8) 22.7% 12.8 (0.1) 0.4% 12.7 -31% 12.0% 6.7 19.4 31.1 31.3 135.7 77% 31.8% (3.4) 0.8% (39.0) 9.1% (42.4) 93.3 67% 21.9% 5.5 (4.6) 0.8 94.2 (14.9) 15.8% 79.2 (2.4) 2.6% 76.8 291% 18.0% 13.7 90.5 31.1 31.3 30.2 (15%) 29.1% (3.9) 3.7% (10.1) 9.7% (14.0) 16.3 (41%) 15.7% 1.1 (1.9) (1.2) 15.0 (4.2) 27.9% 10.8 (0.0) 0.1% 10.8 (47.4%) 10.4% 2.4 13.3 31.3 31.4 36.2 2% 27.6% (0.9) 0.7% (13.8) 10.5% (14.7) 21.5 (24%) 16.3% 2.4 (1.3) 1.7 23.2 (6.0) 25.9% 17.2 (0.0) 0.0% 17.2 (33.2%) 13.1% 7.0 24.2 31.3 31.4 37.3 11% 27.4% (1.1) 0.8% (13.6) 10.0% (14.7) 22.6 4% 16.6% 2.6 (1.3) 1.9 24.6 (6.1) 25.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 3% 13.5% 18.4 31.3 31.4 0.59 $ 0.59 $ 3% 2.9 0.1 25.6 6.51 36.5 17% 27.1% (1.1) 0.8% (13.5) 10.0% (14.5) 21.9 40% 16.3% 2.9 (1.3) 2.2 24.1 (6.0) 25.0% 18.1 0.0% 18.1 42% 13.4% 18.1 31.4 31.5 140.2 3% 27.7% (7.0) 1.4% (50.9) 10.1% (57.9) 82.3 -12% 16.3% 9.0 (5.7) 4.6 86.9 (22.4) 25.7% 64.5 (0.0) 0.0% 64.5 -16% 12.7% 64.5 31.3 31.4 157.9 13% 26.8% (5.0) 0.9% (52.2) 8.9% (57.2) 100.7 22% 17.1% 6.9 (5.0) 4.2 104.9 (26.2) 25.0% 78.6 0.0% 78.6 22% 13.4% 78.6 31.5 31.6 2.49 2.49 21% 14.7 1.3 116.7 19.8% 6.36
60.3 22% 27% 40.2 19% 18% 71.4 157% 23% 32% $ 44.5
1.11 $ 0.99 $ 1.01 $ 0.91 $ 53% (10%) 2.2 6.2 0.9 1.6 17.1 42.3% 7.80 31.4 48.1% 7.30
1.25 $ 0.77 $ 1.19 $ 0.77 $ 31% (35.7%) 7.7 17.0 1.8 1.2 43.8 36.3% 6.83 74.1 33.2% 6.84
0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.47 $ 0.35 $ 0.55 $ 0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.46 $ 0.34 $ 0.55 $ NM -25% 221% (47.4%) (33.2%) 3.1 2.3 11.5 2.9 2.9 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 25.2 6.84 18.2 6.60 105.8 24.8% 6.76 19.3 6.57 24.5 6.54
0.58 $ 2.06 $ 0.57 $ 2.05 $ 31% -16% 2.9 11.5 0.1 0.4 24.9 6.48 94.3 18.6% 6.48
159
Source: Investars.com
As of:
% of Coverage Universe
8/25/2011
% of Ratings for which Firm provided Banking Services in the last 12 months 24.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Performance* Buy Hold Sell Expected total return of 15% or more over next 12 months Expected total return of plus or minus 14% over next 12 months Expected total negative return of at least 15% over next 12 months
* Relative to Nasdaq Composite. An Under Review (UR) rating represents a stock that the Firm has temporarily placed under review due to a material change.
Maxim Group makes a market in Harbin Electric, Inc. Maxim Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Harbin Electric, Inc. in the next 3 months.
I, Echo He, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firms total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. Valuation Methods: Our Harbin Electric, Inc. valuation is based on the announced $24 per share price in the leverage buyout proposal. It is also supported by our comparable company analysis and discount cash flow method. Price Target and Investment Risks: Aside from general market and other economic risks, risks particular to our Harbin Electric, Inc. rating include: (1) Failure of the proposed LBO to be completed; (2) Slowdown of
160
RISK RATINGS
Risk ratings take into account both fundamental criteria and price volatility. Speculative Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to early-stage companies with minimal to no revenues, lack of earnings, balance sheet concerns, and/or a short operating history. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be significantly above the industry. Price Volatility: Because of the inherent fundamental criteria of the companies falling within this risk category, the price volatility is expected to be significant with the possibility that the investment could eventually be worthless. Speculative stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. High Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies having below-average revenue and earnings visibility, negative cash flow, and low market cap or public float. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be above the industry. Price volatility: The price volatility of companies falling within this category is expected to be above the industry. High-risk stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. Medium Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to approximate the industry average. Low Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have above-average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to be below the industry.
DISCLAIMERS
Some companies that Maxim Group LLC follows are emerging growth companies whose securities typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Maxim Group LLC research reports may not be suitable for some investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance.
161
162
Mark Tobin, (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Kun Tao, CFA, (949) 720-7149 ktao@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA, ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
China
U.S.-Listed China - Privatization, PE Investment, & Dual-Listing (6th Edition)
This report provides an update on the activity within the U.S.-listed China sector related to privatization, PE investment, and dual-listing. It includes a table with details for each company pursuing privatization. PRIVATIZATION UPDATE Since our last edition (dated July 19, 2011), three going-private deals (CPC, SOKF and TBV) , have completed; plus FTLK's merger was approved during its shareholder meeting. One company (CADC) made a going-private announcement. Currently there are nine active privatization transactions within the U.S.-listed China sector. Please refer to the attached tables for relevant details. Below are some major updates. The average discounts to respective offer prices have widened slightly over the past month, which we view as related to market volatility. Performance of privatization stocks suggests that the official transaction kick-off (marked by signing of definitive agreement followed by initial filing of SC 13E3) serves as the most meaningful catalyst for price appreciation.
s s
s s s s s s s
July 25 - SOKF announced short-form merger at $4.50; deal closed on Jul 27. July 25 - CADC received privatization offer at $2.65 per share, the deal is currently under board review, board legal adviser has been retained. Aug 11 - CSR filed definitive proxy statement, shareholder meeting scheduled for Sep 14. Aug 11 - TBV short-form merger completed. Aug 12 - CFSG filed definitive proxy statement, shareholder meeting scheduled for Sep 22. Aug 15 - HRBN set shareholder record date as Sep 13. Aug 15 - CPC shareholder meeting approved privatization; deal closed on Aug 19. Aug 18 - PUDA shares were delisted from NYSE Amex and moved to trade on OTC. Aug 22 - FTLK shareholder meeting approved privatization.
PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTMENT We continue to view PE investments in U.S.-listed Chinese companies as positive catalysts for the space and believe there is still ample interest. On Aug 15, China XD Plastics (CXDC) announced that Morgan Stanley Private Equity Asia (MSPEA) agreed to invest $100M for a significant minority stake in the company, in the form of redeemable convertible preferred shares. MSPEA will take two seats (total of nine members) on the company's board. Recall, in June 2011 MSPEA also made a $50M investment in YONG. HONG KONG DUAL-LISTING On Aug 3, COGO announced completion of its redomicile to Cayman Islands. This change will provide the company with the option to dual-list on HK exchange while continuing to trade its shares on Nasdaq.
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 4 to 4 of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 888 San Clemente Drive | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
163
CHINA
Summary of On-going Deals
China Advanced Construction Materials China Natural Gas CNinsure CADC CHNG CISG TPG Asia, Chairman Chairman & CEO, Vice Chairman & CEO, Chairman & COO consortium backed by & CEO, CDH Themes Investment Inservice Partners Jul-26-2011 49.5% $2.65
(1)
China Security & China Fire & Surveillance Security Technology CFSG CSR Bain Capital Chairman & CEO (Management's 59.1% stake already agreed to vote for the agreement) Mar-07-2011 59.1% $9.00 43.8% --17.3x 16.4x $8.35 (7.2%) Mar-08-2011 20.9% $6.50 58.5% --6.8x 5.9x $5.78 (11.1%)
Funtalk China Fushi Copperweld FTLK FSIN Chairman & CEO (key Chariman & CEO, mgmt), ARCH, Capital Abax Global Capital Ally, GM Investment
Announcement Date Pre-deal Buyer/mgmt Ownership % Bid Price per Share or ADS Premium over previous day close Price Revision Date Revised Price P/E (TTM) (2) P/E (NTM) (2) Current Price (08/22/2011) Current Discount to Bid Price Status
Jun-30-2011 14.0% $4.25 22.8% --5.8x 5.2x $2.35 (44.7%) Board informed; (buyers formulating proposal)
May-16-2011 34.3% $19.00 44.4% --15.0x 13.3x $12.52 (34.1%) Under board review
Mar-25-2011 77.1% $7.10 15.4% May-31-2011 $7.20 8.4x 8.7x $7.00 (2.8%) Approved by shareholder EGM on Aug 22, 2011; Expected to close by the end of Aug 2011
Nov-03-2010 29.2% $11.50 26.4% --8.8x 8.2x $6.22 (45.9%) Under board review
Oct-11-2010 40.6% $24.00 20.2% --8.8x 7.3x $18.28 (23.8%) Board approved, pending shareholder vote; Expected to close in Q4' 2011; Shareholder record date was set as Sept 13, 2011 Jun-20-2011 Jul-13-2011 >50% total & >50% of disinterested shares $750.0M (1) Debt: CDB-$400M, Abax note-$25M; (2) Equity: Abax cash$38.8M, Mgmt rollover$264.1M, Abax rollover-$40.6M China Development Bank: US$ 400M Abax: US$25M 23.2% Morgan Stanley & Co. / Lazard Freres & Co. LLC Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP
Apr-29-2011 31.6% $12.00 100.0% --10.9x 10.1x $3.23 (73.1%) Under board review; Shares halted starting Apr 11, 2011, later delisted from NYSE Amex and moved to OTC on August 18, 2011 Pending N/A N/A $360.0M
Shareholder EGM Shareholder EGM scheduled on Sept 22, scheduled on Sept 14, 2011; 2011; Expected to close by Nov 15, 2011
Board Approval / Definitive Agreement Initial Filing of SC 13E3 Voting Requirement Implied Equity Value (3)
May-20-2011 Jun-10-2011
Apr-20-2011 May-31-2011
May-31-2011 Jun-14-2011
>75% total & >50% total & >2/3 of voting shares >50% of disinterested >50% of disinterested at EGM shares shares $257.8M $583.2M $433.9M (1) Debt: None; (2) Equity: PAG Asia Capital-$150M (4) , PE rollover-$223.5M , Mgmt rollover$111.1M None 77.7% Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Source of funding
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A N/A
N/A N/A
None N/A
N/A N/A
N/A N/A Cowen and Company, LLC / Morgan Joseph TriArtisan LLC Not disclosed
N/A
N/A
Barclays Capital
N/A
Skadden, Arps, Slate, Shearman & Sterling Meagher & Flom LLP / LLP Maples and Calder
Premium of bid price above the closing price on previous trading day before announcement Valuation multiples are based on bid price over TTM and NTM EPS as of deal announcement date; data sourced from ROTH research if companies are covered, or Bloomberg if otherwise; NA indicates not available, NM indicates not meaningful Implied Equity Value is calculated based on latest available bid price and shares outstanding number as disclosed US$ 150M investment in convertible preferred shares
Page 2 of 4
164
CHINA
Announcement Date Pre-deal Buyer/mgmt Ownership % Bid Price per Share or ADS Price 1-Day Prior to Announcement Premium over previous day close (1) Price Revision Date Revised Price P/E (TTM) P/E (NTM) Status
(3)
Oct-28-2010 23.0% $10.00 $7.66 31% --125.0x 90.9x Completed on Feb 24, 2011
Nov-11-2010 55.8% $8.00 $6.32 27% Mar-21-2011 $8.10 9.0x 8.2x Completed on Aug 19, 2011.
(3)
Abandoned due to lack Completed on Sep 29, of quorum in 2010 shareholder meeting on Apr 7, 2011 Not involved Jan-03-2011 Oct-22-2010 >50% of disinterested voting shareholders representing >75% of voting disinterested shares Not involved Not disclosed Not disclosed Not involved Oct-12-2009 Nov-13-2009
CITIC Bank US$ 25M Nov-01-2010 Nov-26-2010 >50% of shareholders representing >75% of voting shares Not involved Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Sheppard, Mullin, Richter & Hampton LLP / Thorp Alberga
Voting Requirement
N/A
N/A
N/A
Post-deal Private Equity Ownership Board Financial Advisor Board Legal Advisor
(1) (2) (3)
27.2% Houlihan Lokey Shearman & Sterling LLP / Maples and Calder
Not involved Brean Murray, Carret & Co. Arent Fox LLP
Premium of bid price above the closing price on previous trading day before announcement The offer price is 1.9 shares of XING common stock plus $0.8 in cash, we convert to dollar value using XING's closing price on Sept-8-2010 Valuation multiples are based on bid price over TTM and NTM EPS as of deal announcement date; data sourced from ROTH research if companies are covered, or Bloomberg if otherwise; NA indicates not available, NM indicates not meaningful Source: Company Filings, Bloomberg, ROTH Capital Partners
Page 3 of 4
165
CHINA
Disclosures:
ROTH and/or its employees, officers, directors and owners own options, rights or warrants to purchase shares of Fushi Copperweld, Inc. stock. Within the last twelve months, ROTH has received compensation for investment banking services from Funtalk China Holdings Limited. ROTH makes a market in shares of China Advanced Construction Materials, China Fire & Security Group, Inc., Cogo Group, Inc., Fushi Copperweld, Inc., Funtalk China Holdings Limited, Harbin Electric, Inc., SOKO Fitness & Spa Group and Yongye International, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. Within the last twelve months, ROTH has managed or co-managed a public offering for Funtalk China Holdings Limited. Shares of SOKO Fitness & Spa Group may not be eligible for sale in one or more states. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral. On May 26, 2011, ROTH changed its rating system in order to incorporate coverage that is Under Review.
Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 08/23/11 Count Percent 49 24.9 7 11.9 0 0 2 22.2
Rating Buy [B] Neutral [N] Sell [S] Under Review [UR]
Count 197 59 1 9
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Under Review [UR]: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, indicates the temporary removal of the prior rating, price target and estimates for the security. Prior rating, price target and estimates should no longer be relied upon for UR-rated securities. Not Covered [NC]: ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the express written permission of ROTH. Copyright 2011. Member: FINRA/SIPC.
Page 4 of 4
166
Mark Tobin, (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA, ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
| HRBN - $15.45 - NASDAQ | Buy HRBN: First Take - 2Q11 Results Beat Est.; Conf Call Wed 9am ET
HRBN reported 2Q11 results that exceeded our revenue and EPS estimates. Sales growth of 24.6% was driven primarily by strength in linear and rotary motors. Further earnings upside was limited by continued margin pressure associated with inflated material and labor costs, which we expect will persist for the next several quarters. We view the pending privatization as the primary value driver for shares of HRBN. Management will host a conference call Wednesday at 9am ET.
2Q11 results. Revenue equaled $131.4M vs. ROTH/Consensus est. $115.3M/ $113.8M. EBIT equaled $21.5M, largely in-line with our est. $21.2M. NonGAAP EPS equaled $0.53 vs. ROTH/Consensus est. $0.51/$0.50. Non-GAAP EPS excludes 2c benefit from a gain in fair value of warrants. Earnings upside was limited by lower than expected gross margins (27.6% vs. est. 29.5%; sharp y/y declines in linear motor margins) and higher than expected SG&A expenses (includes ~$3.3M, or 10c, in privatization-related expenses). Balance sheet. HRBN ended with 2Q11 with $87.6M in cash, vs. $122.8m at the end of 1Q10. The decrease in cash is primarily associated with capital expenditures for equipment purchase and plant construction. Privatization remains the focus. HRBN filed its Form SC13E3 on July 13, 2011, which we believe is a substantial step forward in its going-private process. The documents will undergo SEC review and the company will respond to comments by filing amended documents in an iterative process. We continue to view the pending privatization as the major value-driver for shares of HRBN. Conference call. Management will host a conference call on Wednesday at 9am ET. Dial in: 877-317-6789.
Pro-forma EPS for all periods Revenue ($ millions) Yr Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q YEAR 2010 105.5A 105.4A 109.4A 106.2A 426.5A 2011E Curr 103.8A 115.3E 126.7E 131.1E 476.8E 2012E Curr 578.3E
30 25 20 15 10 5 Price
May-11
Sep-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 3 to 4 of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 888 San Clemente Drive | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
Aug-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jun-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
167
VALUATION
Our $24 PT is based on the offer price of the proposed buy-out. Factors that may impede HRBN shares from reaching our price target include: s There are still numerous steps in the privatization process, some of which could lead to delays in completing the transaction. s A slow-down in China''s economic growth and continued inflation could impact sales and compress margins.
RISKS
Change in macro policies in China. Two of HRBN's major catalysts, oil pump for oilfield and linear motors for urban metro lines, can be largely affected by central and local government policies. The development of urban railways can experience delays that out of control of HRBN, such as delay in construction. Volatile raw materials costs HRBN is subject to market fluctuations and volatility of two major raw materials, copper and steel respectively.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Harbin Electric, Inc. develops, engineers, manufactures and sells an array of industrial electric motors, customized linear motors, controller automation systems, automobile specialty micro-motors, and other special motors. The Company operates, through its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Harbin Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd (HTFE). The Company offers three key product lines: industrial electric motors, linear motors and their integrated application systems, and automobile specialty micro-motors.
Page 2 of 4
168
Disclosures:
ROTH makes a market in shares of Harbin Electric, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral. On May 26, 2011, ROTH changed its rating system in order to incorporate coverage that is Under Review.
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 08/09/11 Count Percent 51 24.9 7 11.9 0 0 0 0
Rating Buy [B] Neutral [N] Sell [S] Under Review [UR]
Count 205 59 2 0
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Under Review [UR]: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, indicates the temporary removal of the prior rating, price target and estimates for the security. Prior rating, price target and estimates should no longer be relied upon for UR-rated securities. Not Covered [NC]: ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts
Page 3 of 4
169
Page 4 of 4
170
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
Buy
(HRBN Nasdaq $15.45) Better than Expected 2Q11; Progress of SEC approval is a near-term catalyst; Reiterate Buy and $24 price target
Yesterday, HRBN reported 2Q11 financial results. Revenue was $131.4M, 16% and 17% higher than consensus and our estimate, respectively, representing 25% y/y and 27% q/q growth. GAAP EPS of $0.55 also beat our estimate of $0.48 and consensus of $0.50. Gross margin was 27.6% vs. 33.5% in 2Q10 and 29.1% in 1Q11, representing both y/y and q/q decline.
The strong growth was driven by both production volume and ASP increase. During the quarter, all segments recorded higher sales y/y, with linear motor, micro motor, Weihai and Xian rotary motor subsidiary achieving 22%, 20%, 24% and 30% y/y growth, respectively. Chinas across the board inflation enabled HRBN to sell at higher ASPs. Meanwhile, gradual capacity expansion and new customer sign-ups drove volume growth. As expected, margin pressure was significant during 2Q11. Increased raw material and labor cost, mix shift to lower-margin products and new product launches combined to lead to a 1.5 ppt sequential reduction of the gross margin. Expenses of $3.3M related to the going private process and higher tax rate, 25.9% in 2Q11 vs. 15.8% in 2010, were the reasons that further lowered operating and net margin, respectively. Going forward, we believe margin pressure is likely to continue given that Chinas CPI rose to 6.5% in July, the highest in three years. Revising estimates. We are raising our 2011 and 2012 revenue estimates by 7% to reflect likely stronger than expected revenue growth. Meanwhile, we adjusted margins lower to reflect rising cost/expenses. As a result, our 2011 and 2012 GAAP EPS estimates are reduced to $2.05 and $2.49, respectively, from our prior estimates of $2.14 and $2.67, respectively. According to the recent case of the going private process of China Security and Surveillance Technology, Inc. (CSR NR), we estimate HRBN could have a revised schedule 13E-3 and preliminary proxy filed as early as late August. Our $24 price target is mainly based on a favorable outcome of HRBNs LBO, which has an established offer price of $24 per share. We reiterate our Buy rating and believe the persistent gap, currently ~36%, to the LBO offering price creates buying opportunities.
Maxim Group LLC 405 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10174 www.maximgrp.com
SEE PAGES 6-8 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS 171
(151) bps
Tax Rate 12.9% 20.0% 25.9% Net income before noncontrolling interest 25.7 15.2 17.2 Minority interests (0.0) (0.0) As % of net income 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Net income 25.7 15.2 17.2 Y/Y Growth NM -41% -33% Net Margin 24.4% 13.6% 13.1% Foreign currency translation adjustment 1.3 7.0 Change in fair value of derivative instrument (or Reclassification adjustment for gain on sales of m Comprehensive income 27.0 15.2 24.2 Weighted average shares outstanding Basic 31.1 31.3 31.3 Diluted 31.3 31.4 31.4 EPS (to controlling interest) Basic $ 0.83 $ 0.49 $ 0.55 Diluted $ 0.82 $ 0.48 $ 0.55 Y/Y Growth NM -41% -33% Exchange Rate (RMB/US$) 6.84 6.54 6.54
59%
13% 13%
172
-10%
-18%
-7%
-16%
173
Chinese Industrial Companies China Automotive CAAS A-Power APWR FushiCopperweld FSIN Lihua International LIWA Shengdatech SDTH Wonder Auto WATG ChemSpec CPC China Gerui Adv. Materia CHOP SORL Auto Parts SORL Average HK Listed China Motor Companies Harbin Power Equipment 1133-HK Shanghai Electric Group 2727-HK Dongfang Electric Group 1072-HK Chongqing Machinery & E2722-HK Shanghai Prime Machine 2345-HK Average
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ -$ $ $ $
$ -$ $ -$ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
China Mainland Listed China Motor Companies Xiangtan Electric 600416-SH $ 1.59 Zhejiang Founder Motor 002196-SZ $ 2.51 BroadOcean 002249-SZ $ 3.07 Jiangte Electric Motor 002176-SZ $ 3.59 Shanghai Electric Group 601727-SH $ 0.91 Dongfang Electric Group 600875-SH $ 3.62 Average
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ -$
US/International Motor Companies Siemens SI $ 108.16 $ 93,962 ABB ABB $ 21.88 $ 50,105 Emerson Electric EMR $ 44.38 $ 33,426 Illinois Tool Works ITW $ 44.38 $ 22,300 Cummins CMI $ 91.11 $ 18,003 Magna International MGA $ 39.33 $ 4,435 Rockwell Automation ROK $ 60.89 $ 8,683 Lear Corporation LEA $ 43.16 $ 2,015 Regal Beloit RBC $ 53.60 $ 2,064 Smith AO AOS $ 37.26 $ 1,137 Franklin Electric FELE $ 41.90 $ 975 Average Source: Thomson One, Bloomberg and Maxim Group estimates.
$ 6.09 $ 1.25 $ 2.69 $ 3.08 $ 5.17 $ 4.34 $ 3.05 $ 4.42 n/a $ 2.87 $ 1.94
$ 10.77 $ 1.58 $ 3.23 $ 3.83 $ 8.90 $ 4.94 $ 4.64 $ 5.46 n/a $ 2.18 $ 2.68
$ 10.71 $ 1.93 $ 3.74 $ 4.46 $ 10.63 $ 5.35 $ 5.41 $ 6.04 n/a -$ 2.97 $ 3.08
17.8x 17.5x 16.5x 14.4x 17.6x 9.1x 20.0x 9.8x -13.0x 21.6x 15.7x
10.0x 13.9x 13.7x 11.6x 10.2x 8.0x 13.1x 7.9x -17.1x 15.6x 12.1x
10.1x 11.3x 11.9x 9.9x 8.6x 7.4x 11.2x 7.1x 12.5x 13.6x 10.4x
174
19.8 20.1 19.3 17.0 76.3 19.3 24.7 23.2 22.1 89.3 100.5 60% 74% 18% -14% 27% -3% 22% 20% 30% 17% 13% 56% 19% 19% 18% 16% 18% 19% 19% 17% 16% 18% 17% 18.3 16.2 15.2 15.3 14.0 60.8 15.5 18.2 18.4 16.8 68.9 75.8 166% 78% 81% -18% 51% -4% 20% 20% 20% 13% 10% 28% 15% 14% 14% 13% 14% 15% 14% 13% 13% 14% 13% 22.5 23.6 23.5 23.7 93.2 21.8 29.2 29.4 29.7 110.0 131.0 107% 39% 14% 3% 31% -3% 24% 25% 25% 18% 19% 0% 21% 22% 21% 22% 22% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 45.0 44.6 48.9 49.9 188.5 46.3 58.0 63.6 64.9 232.8 275.9 13% 6% 11% 12% 11% 3% 30% 30% 30% 24% 18% 0% 0% 20% 43% 42% 45% 47% 44% 45% 44% 47% 48% 46% 47% 4.9 $ 23.6 $ 40.4 $ 65.4 $ 120.8 $ 223.2 $ 105.5 $ 105.4 $ 109.4 $ 106.2 $ 426.5 $ 103.8 $ 131.4 $ 136.1 $ 134.5 $ 505.9 $ 588.6 387% 71% 62% 85% 85% 243% 175% 133% -1% 91% (1.6%) 25% 25% 27% 19% 16% (2.3) (12.1) (20.8) (33.0) (73.3) (146.6) (69.7) (70.1) (75.8) (75.1) (290.8) (73.6) (95.2) (98.8) (98.1) (365.7) (430.7) 2.6 52.9% (0.1) 1.9% (0.2) 3.8% (0.3) 2.3 47.1% 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0% 2.3 0.0% 2.3 47.6% 2.2 6.4 6.4 0.36 0.36 0.1 2.4 48.6% 8.28 $ $ 11.6 350% 48.9% (0.3) 1.4% (1.3) 5.3% (1.6) 10.0 42.1% 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0% 10.0 0.0% 10.0 333% 42.3% 0.5 11.1 14.9 15.1 0.67 $ 0.66 $ 82% 0.4 10.3 43.7% 8.07 19.7 70% 48.6% (1.5) 3.7% (4.2) 10.3% (5.7) 14.0 34.6% 0.0 (2.5) 4.4 18.4 0.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 84% 45.6% 1.0 19.5 16.6 18.3 32.4 65% 49.6% (1.1) 1.6% (7.7) 11.7% (8.7) 23.7 36.3% (0.2) (6.6) (6.8) 16.9 0.0% 16.9 0.0% 16.9 (8%) 25.8% 7.2 13.2 17.1 18.6 47.5 46% 39.3% (1.2) 1.0% (11.9) 9.9% (13.1) 34.4 45% 28.5% 1.6 (6.1) (4.5) 29.9 (4.5) 15.1% 25.4 0.0% 25.4 50% 21.0% 9.5 40.0 20.2 21.3 76.6 61% 34.3% (2.1) 0.9% (18.7) 8.4% (20.8) 55.8 62% 25.0% 5.5 (12.3) (24.9) 30.9 (7.8) 25.2% 23.1 (3.5) 11.3% 19.6 (23%) 8.8% (0.1) 16.3 25.6 25.7 35.7 227% 33.9% (0.6) 0.6% (7.4) 7.0% (8.0) 27.7 246% 26.3% 1.1 (1.6) (0.8) 27.0 (4.1) 15.1% 22.9 (2.4) 8.7% 20.6 137% 19.5% 0.1 20.6 31.1 31.4 0.66 $ 0.66 $ 68% 3.3 0.3 31.3 6.84 35.3 175% 33.5% (0.4) 0.3% (6.9) 6.5% (7.2) 28.1 219% 26.6% 1.3 (1.0) 1.4 29.5 (3.8) 12.9% 25.7 (0.0) 0.0% 25.7 NM 24.4% 1.3 27.0 31.1 31.3 0.83 $ 0.82 $ NM 2.8 0.3 31.1 6.84 33.6 100% 30.7% (1.7) 1.5% (10.1) 9.2% (11.7) 21.9 68% 20.0% 0.7 (1.1) (0.7) 21.2 (3.3) 15.6% 17.9 (0.0) 0.1% 17.9 NM 16.3% 5.6 23.5 31.1 31.3 31.1 -14% 29.2% (0.8) 0.8% (14.6) 13.8% (15.4) 15.6 (39.7%) 14.7% 2.3 (0.8) 0.9 16.6 (3.8) 22.7% 12.8 (0.1) 0.4% 12.7 -31% 12.0% 6.7 19.4 31.1 31.3 135.7 77% 31.8% (3.4) 0.8% (39.0) 9.1% (42.4) 93.3 67% 21.9% 5.5 (4.6) 0.8 94.2 (14.9) 15.8% 79.2 (2.4) 2.6% 76.8 291% 18.0% 13.7 90.5 31.1 31.3 30.2 (15%) 29.1% (3.9) 3.7% (10.1) 9.7% (14.0) 16.3 (41%) 15.7% 1.1 (1.9) (1.2) 15.0 (4.2) 27.9% 10.8 (0.0) 0.1% 10.8 (47.4%) 10.4% 2.4 13.3 31.3 31.4 36.2 2% 27.6% (0.9) 0.7% (13.8) 10.5% (14.7) 21.5 (24%) 16.3% 2.4 (1.3) 1.7 23.2 (6.0) 25.9% 17.2 (0.0) 0.0% 17.2 (33.2%) 13.1% 7.0 24.2 31.3 31.4 37.3 11% 27.4% (1.1) 0.8% (13.6) 10.0% (14.7) 22.6 4% 16.6% 2.6 (1.3) 1.9 24.6 (6.1) 25.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 3% 13.5% 18.4 31.3 31.4 0.59 $ 0.59 $ 3% 2.9 0.1 25.6 6.51 36.5 17% 27.1% (1.1) 0.8% (13.5) 10.0% (14.5) 21.9 40% 16.3% 2.9 (1.3) 2.2 24.1 (6.0) 25.0% 18.1 0.0% 18.1 42% 13.4% 18.1 31.4 31.5 140.2 3% 27.7% (7.0) 1.4% (50.9) 10.1% (57.9) 82.3 -12% 16.3% 9.0 (5.7) 4.6 86.9 (22.4) 25.7% 64.5 (0.0) 0.0% 64.5 -16% 12.7% 64.5 31.3 31.4 157.9 13% 26.8% (5.0) 0.9% (52.2) 8.9% (57.2) 100.7 22% 17.1% 6.9 (5.0) 4.2 104.9 (26.2) 25.0% 78.6 0.0% 78.6 22% 13.4% 78.6 31.5 31.6 2.49 2.49 21% 14.7 1.3 116.7 19.8% 6.36
60.3 22% 27% 40.2 19% 18% 71.4 157% 23% 32% $ 44.5
1.11 $ 0.99 $ 1.01 $ 0.91 $ 53% (10%) 2.2 6.2 0.9 1.6 17.1 42.3% 7.80 31.4 48.1% 7.30
1.25 $ 0.77 $ 1.19 $ 0.77 $ 31% (35.7%) 7.7 17.0 1.8 1.2 43.8 36.3% 6.83 74.1 33.2% 6.84
0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.47 $ 0.35 $ 0.55 $ 0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.46 $ 0.34 $ 0.55 $ NM -25% 221% (47.4%) (33.2%) 3.1 2.3 11.5 2.9 2.9 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 25.2 6.84 18.2 6.60 105.8 24.8% 6.76 19.3 6.57 24.5 6.54
0.58 $ 2.06 $ 0.57 $ 2.05 $ 31% -16% 2.9 11.5 0.1 0.4 24.9 6.48 94.3 18.6% 6.48
175
Source: Investars.com
As of:
% of Coverage Universe
8/10/2011
% of Ratings for which Firm provided Banking Services in the last 12 months 24.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Performance* Buy Hold Sell Expected total return of 15% or more over next 12 months Expected total return of plus or minus 14% over next 12 months Expected total negative return of at least 15% over next 12 months
* Relative to Nasdaq Composite. An Under Review (UR) rating represents a stock that the Firm has temporarily placed under review due to a material change.
Maxim Group makes a market in Harbin Electric, Inc. Maxim Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Harbin Electric, Inc. in the next 3 months.
I, Echo He, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firms total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. Valuation Methods: Our Harbin Electric, Inc. valuation is based on the announced $24 per share price in the leverage buyout proposal. It is also supported by our comparable company analysis and discount cash flow method. Price Target and Investment Risks: Aside from general market and other economic risks, risks particular to our Harbin Electric, Inc. rating include: (1) Failure of the proposed LBO to be completed; (2) Slowdown of
176
RISK RATINGS
Risk ratings take into account both fundamental criteria and price volatility. Speculative Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to early-stage companies with minimal to no revenues, lack of earnings, balance sheet concerns, and/or a short operating history. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be significantly above the industry. Price Volatility: Because of the inherent fundamental criteria of the companies falling within this risk category, the price volatility is expected to be significant with the possibility that the investment could eventually be worthless. Speculative stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. High Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies having below-average revenue and earnings visibility, negative cash flow, and low market cap or public float. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be above the industry. Price volatility: The price volatility of companies falling within this category is expected to be above the industry. High-risk stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. Medium Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to approximate the industry average. Low Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have above-average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to be below the industry.
DISCLAIMERS
Some companies that Maxim Group LLC follows are emerging growth companies whose securities typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Maxim Group LLC research reports may not be suitable for some investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance.
177
178
Mark Tobin, (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA, ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
Pro-forma EPS for all periods Revenue ($ millions) Yr Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q YEAR 2010 105.5A 105.4A 109.4A 106.2A 426.5A 2011E Curr Prev 103.8A 103.8A 131.4A 115.3E 125.1E 126.7E 130.2E 131.1E 490.5E 476.8E 2012E Curr Prev 568.9E 578.3E
30 25 20 15 10 5 Price
May-11
Sep-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 5 to 6 of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 888 San Clemente Drive | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
Aug-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jun-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
179
SUMMARY
Financial results, key operating metrics, and estimate revisions:
Operating Results & Segment Detail Total Revenue Linear Motors Automobile specialty micro-motors Controllers and other special motors Rotary industrial motors (Weihai Hengda) Simo Motor Gross profit margin Linear Motors Automobile specialty micro-motors Controllers and other special motors Rotary industrial motors (Weihai Hengda) Simo Motor Operating Income Net Income (non-GAAP) Effective tax rate EPS (non-GAAP) Act 131,402 24,662 18,210 1,313 29,201 58,016 27.6% 41.3% 33.9% 35.4% 11.4% 27.7% 21,458 16,596 25.9% $0.53 Est 115,263 19,918 17,325 2,043 24,688 51,289 29.5% 50.0% 41.0% 33.0% 11.5% 28.5% 21,176 16,141 20.0% $0.51 Var ($) 16,139 4,744 885 (730) 4,513 6,727 (195) (874) (710) 239 (12) (80) 282 455 590 0.02 Var (%) 14.0% 23.8% 5.1% -35.7% 18.3% 13.1% -6.6% -17.5% -17.3% 7.3% -1.1% -2.8% 1.3% 2.8% 29.5% 3.9% Comments Primarily driven by strong linear and rotary motors segments Higher volume outplayed declining ASP
Driven by both higher volume and higher pricing Driven by both higher volume and higher pricing Rising material & labor cost plus certain segment-specific reasons: Higher volume in lower margin products/lowering ASP to gain market Higher volume in lower margin products/launch of new products Higher pricing partially offsetting rising cost Higher pricing partially offsetting rising cost Higher revenue offset by dropping GP margin and higher SG&A Higher revenue offset by dropping GP margin and higher SG&A
Excluding 2c benefit from a gain in fair value of warrants EPS includes ~10c in privatization-related expenses
Act Performance Statistics Gross margin Y/Y Change (in bps) Q/Q Change (in bps) Accounts Payable Turnover DSOs Inventory Turnover Operating Cash Flow (in MM) Cash (in MM) (w/o restricted cash) Cash per share Debt (in MM) Debt per share 2Q11 27.6% -595 -155 16.7x 63 6.5x $9.7 $87.6 $2.79 $87.4 $2.79 Current Estimate Revisions Revenue Gross Margin Operating Margin EPS (non-GAAP) 125,069 28.0% 18.4% $0.54
Est 29.5%
12.1x 73 5.0x $8.7 $122.8 $3.92 $80.9 $2.58 Previous Var ($) 3Q11 126,676 (1,607) 29.9% -195 19.7% -135 $0.61 (0.07) Fiscal Year 2011 476,847 13,651 29.6% -146 18.6% -123 $2.17 (0.12) Fiscal Year 2012 578,326 (9,447) 30.0% -169 20.6% -60 $2.89 (0.25)
5.4x 87 3.6x $31.8 $40.3 $1.28 $57.0 $1.82 Var (%) -1.3% -6.5% -6.8% -11.5%
Operating cash cycle shortened to 97 days in Q2'11 vs. 116 days in 1Q'11 and 121 days in 2Q'10
Expecting margin pressure to continue for next several quarters Gross margin pressure plus elevated expense related to privatization Lower gross margin/higher Opex/elevated tax rate
Primarily on upbeat reported Q2 results Expecting margin pressure to continue for next several quarters Gross margin pressure plus elevated expense related to privatization Lower gross margin/higher opex/elevated tax rate
Considering capacity constaints particularly in Xi'an SIMO Expecting margin pressure to continue for next several quarters Gross margin pressure Lower gross margin/elevated tax rate
Page 2 of 6
180
VALUATION
Our $24 PT is based on the offer price of the proposed buy-out. Factors that may impede HRBN shares from reaching our price target include: s There are still numerous steps in the privatization process, some of which could lead to delays in completing the transaction. s A slow-down in China''s economic growth and continued inflation could impact sales and compress margins.
RISKS
Change in macro policies in China. Two of HRBN's major catalysts, oil pump for oilfield and linear motors for urban metro lines, can be largely affected by central and local government policies. The development of urban railways can experience delays that out of control of HRBN, such as delay in construction. Volatile raw materials costs HRBN is subject to market fluctuations and volatility of two major raw materials, copper and steel respectively.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Harbin Electric, Inc. develops, engineers, manufactures and sells an array of industrial electric motors, customized linear motors, controller automation systems, automobile specialty micro-motors, and other special motors. The Company operates, through its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Harbin Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd (HTFE). The Company offers three key product lines: industrial electric motors, linear motors and their integrated application systems, and automobile specialty micro-motors.
Page 3 of 6
181
FY07
Revenue Linear Motors Automobile specialty micro-motors Controllers and other special motors Rotary industrial motors (Weihai Hengda) Simo Motor Total Revenue yoy growth % Cost of Sales Gross Profit gross margin% Operating Expenses Selling, General and Administrative Expenses as % of revenue Research and Development Expenses as % of revenue Income From Operations operating margin yoy growth % Other Income(Expenses) Interest Income/expense-net Realized Gain/loss on Sale of Marketable Securities Non-operating Income/expense, Net Other Income/expense-net Loss on cross currency hedge settlement Gain on debt extinguishment Change in Fair Value of Warrants Loss from disposal of subdivision Earnings before Taxes Provision for Income Tax effective tax rate Minority Interest Net Income (Loss) net margin % yoy growth % Non GAAP Net Income* net margin % yoy growth % Diluted EPS yoy growth % Non GAAP EPS yoy growth % Diluted weighted average shares outstanding EBITDA 36,626 10,464 18,313 0 0 65,403 62% (32,968) 32,435 49.6%
FY08
46,950 34,628 11,664 27,578 0 120,820 85% (73,343) 47,477 39.3%
Q1'09A
12,382 6,114 1,383 10,846 0 30,725 36.8% (19,801) 10,924 35.6%
Q2'09A
11,547 8,555 1,343 16,918 0 38,363 60.1% (25,500) 12,863 33.5%
Q3'09A
16,426 8,448 1,408 20,650 0 46,932 18.3% (30,171) 16,761 35.7%
Q4'09A
20,371 18,441 643 23,694 44,065 107,214 208.6% (71,150) 36,064 33.6%
FY09
60,726 41,558 4,777 72,109 44,065 223,234 84.8% (146,622) 76,612 34.3%
Q1'10A
19,831 16,245 1,899 22,468 45,042 105,485 243.3% (69,743) 35,742 33.9%
Q2'10A
20,138 15,183 2,003 23,512 44,599 105,436 174.8% (70,104) 35,332 33.5%
Q3'10A
19,356 15,310 2,296 23,511 48,881 109,355 133.0% (75,780) 33,575 30.7%
Q4'10A
17,009 14,030 1,468 23,757 49,942 106,206 -0.9% (75,142) 31,064 29.2%
FY10A
76,334 60,767 7,666 93,249 188,465 426,481 91.0% (290,768) 135,713 31.8%
Q1'11A
19,261 15,532 961 21,770 46,305 103,829 -1.6% (73,626) 30,204 29.1%
Q2'11A
24,662 18,210 1,313 29,201 58,016 131,402 24.6% (95,198) 36,204 27.6%
Q3'11E
22,118 20,475 1,378 25,862 55,236 125,069 14.4% (90,110) 34,959 28.0%
Q4'11E
21,426 22,050 1,468 27,321 57,932 130,198 22.6% (93,528) 36,670 28.2%
FY11E
87,467 76,267 5,120 104,154 217,490 490,498 15.0% (352,461) 138,037 28.1%
FY12E
101,165 97,020 5,352 121,523 243,820 568,879 16.0% (407,641) 161,238 28.3%
(6,620) 0 (189) 0 0 0 0 0 16,903 0 0.0% 16,903 25.8% -8% 16,903 25.8% 40% $0.91 -10% $0.91 37% 18,635 29,863
(6,066) 0 218 1,358 0 0 0 0 29,903 (4,524) 15.1% 25,379 21.0% 50% 25,379 21.0% 50% $1.19 31% $1.19 31% 21,324 42,066
(1,441) 0 0 539 0 0 2,573 0 9,697 (1,043) 10.8% 8,654 28.2% 62% 6,081 19.8% 14% $0.39 46% $0.27 2% 22,159 10,245
(843) 0 0 2,101 0 0 (14,015) 0 (3,941) (1,479) -37.5% (5,419) -14.1% -187% 7,423 19.3% 19% -$0.24 -178% $0.33 7% 22,341 10,688
(8,478) 0 0 1,063 (9,000) 4,155 (737) 0 46 (1,954) 4209.2% (1,908) -4.1% -125% 10,953 23.3% 41% -$0.07 -121% $0.40 20% 27,077 23,101
(1,553) 0 0 1,759 0 0 (1,037) 0 25,131 (3,320) 13.2% (3,491) 18,320 17.1% 203% 19,356 18.1% 220% $0.59 114% $0.62 127% 31,240 28,806
(12,316) 0 0 5,462 (9,000) 4,155 (13,215) 0 30,934 (7,796) 25.2% (3,491) 19,647 8.8% -23% 43,813 19.6% 73% $0.77 -36% $1.71 43% 25,672 72,840
(1,647) 0 0 1,119 0 0 (234) 0 26,969 (4,063) 15.1% (2,352) 20,554 19.5% 137% 20,788 19.7% 242% $0.66 68% $0.66 142% 31,354 31,037
(978) 0 0 1,327 0 0 1,657 (623) 29,466 (3,791) 12.9% (1) 25,675 24.4% -574% 24,641 23.4% 232% $0.82 N/A $0.79 137% 31,343 30,866
(1,133) 0 0 740 0 0 (302) 0 21,158 (3,296) 15.6% 11 17,873 16.3% -1037% 20,208 18.5% 85% $0.57 N/A $0.65 60% 31,282 24,943
(836) 0 0 2,304 0 0 (547) 0 16,569 (3,765) 22.7% (91) 12,714 12.0% -31% 19,603 18.5% 1% $0.41 -31% $0.62 1% 31,376 17,938
(4,593) 0 0 5,490 0 0 574 (623) 94,163 (14,915) 15.8% (2,432) 76,815 18.0% 291% 85,240 20.0% 95% $2.46 221% $2.72 60% 31,282 104,784
(1,924) 0 0 1,121 0 0 (434) 0 15,015 (4,195) 27.9% (14) 10,806 10.4% -47% 12,939 12.5% -38% $0.34 -47% $0.41 -38% 31,364 19,097
(1,259) 0 0 2,390 0 0 566 0 23,154 (5,986) 25.9% (6) 17,162 13.1% -33% 16,596 12.6% -33% $0.55 -33% $0.53 -33% 31,351 24,572
(1,500) 0 0 1,000 0 0 0 0 22,453 (5,613) 25.0% 0 16,839 13.5% -6% 16,839 13.5% -17% $0.54 -6% $0.54 -17% 31,445 26,153
(1,500) 0 0 1,000 0 0 0 0 24,061 (6,015) 25.0% 0 18,046 13.9% 42% 18,046 13.9% -8% $0.57 41% $0.57 -8% 31,540 27,761
(6,183) 0 0 5,511 0 0 132 0 84,683 (21,810) 25.8% (20) 62,853 12.8% -18% 64,421 13.1% -24% $2.00 -19% $2.05 -25% 31,425 97,583
(6,000) 0 0 4,000 0 0 0 0 111,983 (27,996) 25.0% 0 83,987 14.8% 34% 83,987 14.8% 30% $2.64 32% $2.64 29% 31,777 127,983
*Pro-forma net income excludes stock compensation, derivative valuation, and one-time items Source: Company reports, Roth Capital Partners estimates Mark Tobin (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com
Page 4 of 6
182
Disclosures:
ROTH makes a market in shares of Harbin Electric, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral. On May 26, 2011, ROTH changed its rating system in order to incorporate coverage that is Under Review.
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 08/10/11 Count Percent 51 25.0 7 11.7 0 0 0 0
Rating Buy [B] Neutral [N] Sell [S] Under Review [UR]
Count 204 60 2 0
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Under Review [UR]: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, indicates the temporary removal of the prior rating, price target and estimates for the security. Prior rating, price target and estimates should no longer be relied upon for UR-rated securities. Not Covered [NC]: ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts
Page 5 of 6
183
Page 6 of 6
184
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
HRBN - Q2 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
Event Date/Time: Aug. 10. 2011 / 1:00PM GMT
185
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 10. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q2 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS
Christy Shue Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR Tianfu Yang Harbin Electric Inc - Chairman and CEO Zedong Xu Harbin Electric Inc - CFO
PRESENTATION
Operator Good morning and welcome to the Harbin Electric second quarter 2011 financial results conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions). After today's presentation there will be a possibility to ask questions. (Operator Instructions). Please not this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Christy Shue, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Harbin Electric's second quarter 2011 earnings conference call. I am joined by our Chairman and the Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Tianfu Yang, and the Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Zedong Xu, on the call. Before we begin I would like to remind you that our discussion this morning may include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements reflect the Company's current expectations concerning future events and are subject to a number of factors and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. A detailed discussion of these factors and uncertainties is contained in the Company's filings with the SEC. We filed our quarterly report on the Form 10-Q for the three months ended June 30, 2011 yesterday after market close and we issued a press release, following the filing yesterday, to highlight our second quarter financial results. Regarding our revenue, in the second quarter total revenues were $131m, up $26m or 25% compared with $105m in the second quarter of last year. This significant sales growth was mainly the result of higher sales across all major product lines.
186
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 10. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q2 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
In Linear Motors and Related Systems sales were up about $4.5m year-over-year, slightly lower sales volume in our oil pumps and in propulsion systems for coal transportation trains were more than offset by higher volumes in other linear motors and sales of new motors. In Specialty Micro Motors, sales increased by $3m driven by higher volume of existing products and sales of new products. Rotary Motor sales were up $13m and $5.6m at Xi'an Tech Full Simo and at our Weihai facility, respectively, driven primarily by higher volumes and higher pricing. Our gross profit margin declined to 27.6% in the second quarter from 33.5% in the same period last year. This is primarily due to higher raw material cost and the labor costs across all product lines. Changes in product mix and selling price are also the contributors. If you look at the market, the market price of copper has gone up approximately 30% in the second quarter versus the same time last year. The market price of rare earth permanent magnetic material more than tripled. Copper, steel and the rare earth permanent magnetic material are major raw materials for our products. We were able to raise the price on most of our rotary motors this year, which helped to offset some inflationary costs. Although the Company anticipates passing on a portion of the higher costs of raw materials to increase the selling prices, it is expected that higher raw material price will continue to pressure gross margin. Additionally, an increase of $0.4m in depreciation expense in the cost of sales also hurt the overall gross margin. We anticipate that the depreciation expense will continue to go up as many of our capital investments, such as new equipment, machinery and plant construction are put to operation and will start to depreciate the capital investment. In the Linear Motor and Related Systems product line gross margin declined, mainly due to product mix. The product mix in the linear motors has changed compared to last year in a big way. Volumes of higher margin products, oil pumps and propulsion systems, declined while sales volumes of lower margin products increased significantly. Also, in order to expand our customer base and gain market share, we have lowered selling prices for certain of our linear motors. So combine those factors and also add in the other raw material cost inflation and labor cost inflation you have seen a bigger dramatic decline the gross margin in the Linear Motors. In Specialty Micro Motors gross margin declined to 33.9% in the second quarter from 37.1% last year. In addition to higher raw materials and the labor costs, lower gross margin was mainly a result of change in product mix and additional costs and reduced production efficiency associated with the new product launch, which generally experience higher manufacturing costs during the start-up stage due to more workforce training, additional test runs and smaller initial orders. In both Linear Motors and Specialty Micro Motors product lines, our continuing launch of new customized products, although some may have lower margins, help us continue to capture new opportunities in the market and are essential for our growth in top line and bottom line. In Rotary Motors, gross margin declined mainly due to higher raw material and labor cost partially offset by higher selling price. In operating expense we incurred significantly higher SG&A this quarter, at a total of $13.8m compared to only $6.9m in the second quarter last year. As a percentage of total sales, the SG&A is 10.5% versus 6.5% last year. The higher SG&A included a $2.5m write-off of advances on inventory purchases due to vendors going out of business. Also, expenses in the second quarter of 2011 related to going private process totaled $3.3m. This amount included the legal fees associated with the class action lawsuits, fees associated with legal and financial advisors for the Special Committee of the Board of Directors and some other related expenses. The Company expects to recover some of the legal expenses related to the class action lawsuits pursuant to its insurance policy.
2 THOMSON REUTERS STREETEVENTS | www.streetevents.com | Contact Us
2011 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. 'Thomson Reuters' and the Thomson Reuters logo are registered trademarks of Thomson Reuters and its affiliated companies.
187
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 10. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q2 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
If we exclude these two items that were not in the quarter last year and do a more apples-to-apples comparison, our SG&A would have been roughly in line with last year, actually indicating improved management efficiency given we achieved higher revenues this quarter. Our operating profits were $21.5m this quarter versus $28.1m in the same quarter of last year. One other point I would like to highlight is the income tax, we had a higher provision for income tax, $6.0m this quarter compared to $3.8m in the same quarter of last year. And the average corporate income tax rate is higher, because of the preferential tax rate of 10% granted to our subsidiary Harbin Tech Full expired at the end of 2010. Harbin Tech Full is in the process of applying for a new preferential income tax rate from the Chinese government. However, since the new rate is due pending approval, management opted for caution and used a 25% standard income tax rate to calculate the provision for income tax. So the higher income tax rate, the 25% standard rate that we used, has caused the provision for income tax at Harbin Tech Full to be significantly higher in this quarter versus the same quarter last year. The Company recorded a net income attributable to controlling interest of 17.2m, or $0.55 per diluted share in this quarter, compared with a net income attributable to controlling interest of $25.7m, or $0.82 per diluted share in the same quarter of last year. The net income to attribute to controlling interest was 33% lower in the second quarter, primarily due to lower gross profit margin, higher R&D expenses, higher SG&A expenses as we discussed earlier and also the higher income tax rate hurt our net margin and net income. In terms of our balance sheet, we had -- at the end of June we had cash and cash equivalent of $87.6m and we believe our liquidity remains adequate. And in terms of capital expenditure, you probably see when you look at our first quarter, because there was a seasonally winter quarter we did not start capital investments, but a total of about $41m capital expenditure all incurred in the second quarter as we -- after the Chinese New Year we started to execute our investment plan. In terms of the outlook, we expect to deliver for both the top and bottom line. A capacity expansion is under way at our Rotary Motor facilities in Xi'an and Weihai and we believe in the rest of the year we still will maintain solid revenues for the rest of the year. With regard to the Company's going private process, I would like just to comment -- to say a few words. There is a recent events section in the press release and in the 10-Q that provided the current standards of this event. To remind you, on Jun 19, 2011, the Company entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger for the Company to go private. On July 13, 2011, the Company filed a Preliminary Proxy Statement together with a Schedule 13E-3 with the SEC indicating its intention to call a special meeting of its shareholders to vote on the Merger Agreement for the Company to go private. After SEC completes its review of this document, the Company will schedule the special shareholder meeting. The Company will make an announcement regarding the special shareholder meeting when information is available. Please stay tuned. Last but not least, we would like to express our appreciation to our loyal shareholders who have supported us and stood by the Company in the past. We surely will need your support in the days ahead of us and we want to thank you in advance. So in the past more than 10 years of the Company's growth path, born and grew up in China and immigrated to the US, the Company has dealt with many challenges on the way. Obviously nowadays the management continues to deal with challenges including some short-sellers' vicious attacks by using speculations, unfounded accusations and outright lies. In the internet age anyone could write a blog and attack anyone else. In our opinion the freedom has been abused by some short-sellers with the motivation to hurt our shareholders and benefit a few. We advise our shareholders and interested investors to be vigilant and intelligent when review any outside information that may be disseminated about the Company, including the source of such information.
3 THOMSON REUTERS STREETEVENTS | www.streetevents.com | Contact Us
2011 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. 'Thomson Reuters' and the Thomson Reuters logo are registered trademarks of Thomson Reuters and its affiliated companies.
188
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 10. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q2 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
Management understands that many challenges, including absurd short-sellers attacks such as the one we saw today, may still lie ahead of us but we assure our shareholders that management of this Company always faces challenges without fear. These are the Company's prepared remarks, now we're ready to take questions. And please I'd like to remind the question -the people who ask the questions, please limit your questions to only two questions, not exceeding two questions, so that many people will have the chance to ask a question.
Mark Tobin - Roth Capital Markets - Analyst Hi, thanks for taking my question.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR Hi, Mark, good morning.
Mark Tobin - Roth Capital Markets - Analyst Could you offer a little more color on your current utilization rates at your various facilities and then a little more detail on the capacity expansion projects?
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR Okay, let me turn the question to Mr. Yang.
Tianfu Yang - Harbin Electric Inc - Chairman and CEO (spoken in Mandarin)
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR As you most are aware, we have four manufacturing facilities. At our Harbin manufacturing facility our current capacity, normal capacity, we run about 80%. And for the Linear Motors and also due to a new product we have launched, it's called alternate frequency permanent magnetic material motor, that's a more technical term, I don't know how to translate exactly into English. Chinese means (spoken in Chinese) something like that. So we have a plan to also continue to expand the capacity at Harbin and we are planning by next year -- later part of next year the Harbin capacity could be filled up to 100% and after that we may need to add more capacity by then. At Shanghai the design capacity actually right now we only need 30% to 40% because we're still actually moving -- receiving even more equipment and production lines, then we need to install them at the facility -- at the factory. The construction part
189
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 10. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q2 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
-- the first phase, the construction part, has completed and the second phase and third phase are also near completion where just some power station -- we're still working on the power supply station there in Shanghai. And so (technical difficulty) with a lot of machinery and equipment not installed and received yet we're running about 30% to 40%. Within two to three years we're hoping that the capacity can be maximized to 100%. Okay, at Weihai factory the capacity is saturated and we started to build -- construct a new factory but the main construction won't be completed by the end of the year. But once we've completed the construction and we've started to move in our major production line there, I think the new factory is 50,000 square meters. And then by later next year we probably can hope to get an additional 50% of the capacity at Weihai. At Xi'an actually the most urgent thing is at Xi'an and at Xi'an Simo we are planning to actually combine -- consolidate some of the subsidiaries together at one site so that we can improve the manufacturing efficiency. So there are some subsidiaries in the process of moving to the same site, but however we are also short on the space and the capacity and a lot of things happening there we have to deal with. So the capacity constraint is mostly severe at Xi'an. For example, in second quarter we did not really complete all the orders on hand. Actually, he was saying that in July -- July is not second -- July that there were some orders that we did not really complete, we had to delay that, postpone that into the next month. Mr. Yang quoted about CNY10m of orders on hand that have to be postponed to the next month. So right now we're actually just trying being innovative, trying every means to complete our orders on hand and have to contract out -- not contract but source some of the parts to other subsidiaries like Harbin and like Weihai to complete all our orders. So just by being innovative and find the means to do that we were able to reach this quarter's achievements. So our plan is achievement and it's urgent that we really need to expand capacity and start building new factory to expand the capacity there.
Mark Tobin - Roth Capital Markets - Analyst That's helpful, what is your CapEx target for the remainder of 2011?
Tianfu Yang - Harbin Electric Inc - Chairman and CEO (spoken in Mandarin)
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR In terms of capital expenditure, our forecast when they have indicated in the past has not changed, it's approximately $100m he mentioned, and will mainly be used to construct the Weihai new factory and purchasing equipment and production lines. And at Xi'an we may not be able to start right away because the Xi'an facility is -- for some of the investors who have visited our facility you know that it is in the economic development zone and, however, that area has become a residential area because the Xi'an Municipal Government has moved in and we are the neighbor to the Xi'an Municipal Town Hall and there is no space for us to expand at the same location. So right now we are working with the government, the government has allocated us new land so we will have to plan building that new factory on the new land. So the Xi'an factory building new construction may not start at the same location. He mentioned that the land that we need will be not at the same place and we are working with the Xi'an government to get a new piece of land and then the land used right would cost us approximately $30m.
190
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 10. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q2 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
Mark Tobin - Roth Capital Markets - Analyst Okay, that's helpful. Thank you very much.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR We actually made some pre-payments to the government to secure that land in the second quarter with this (inaudible) in the 10-Q.
Operator (Operator Instructions). The next question comes from Echo He of Maxim Group. Please go ahead.
Echo He - Maxim Group - Analyst Oh hi, thank you for taking my questions. My first question is about your average selling price. Could you give me a range about your rotary motors that the selling price increase percentage wise year-over-year?
Tianfu Yang - Harbin Electric Inc - Chairman and CEO (spoken in Mandarin)
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR Let me translate, okay. The question is what's the average selling price, how much higher this year than last year? And as you know that it is common practice in the marketplace that when the raw material price gone up and the manufacturers usually raise the selling price of the product to compensate for some of the inflationary cost and we also did that. As you know, the copper, steel and the price on those raw materials has gone up quite significantly. So we also adjusted our selling price, most of our rotary motors at Xi'an and Weihai. But the price adjustment usually have to go according to the raw material price, and also you have to watch the market acceptance. So those are the criteria that we use -- and when the raw material price goes down and sometimes we adjust back. So those are the common practice. So far, we have adjusted three times of the price of the Simo, and at Weihai we adjust the price two times. Approximately, compared to last year, our price -- for the ones that we raised the price, we had about 20% -- raised the price about 20%. So the next step, whether we can continue to raise the price, we don't know for sure, we will have to look at the reaction from the market and how the customers accept those price -- higher price. Okay.
Echo He - Maxim Group - Analyst Yes, I do have a second question. There are some negative reports out there in the market recently, especially in the past few days, one message sent out from Twitter stating that some positive evidence to prove certain allegations to the Company. Well, likely [you will release it] in the immediate future. Regarding this and related issues, what comments do you have?
Tianfu Yang - Harbin Electric Inc - Chairman and CEO (Spoken in Mandarin).
191
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 10. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q2 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR Mr. Yang thinks that this question gives him an opportunity to comment and share some of his thoughts with his shareholders. As the Company actually has grown up so fast and, from a very small company, grown to such a large company, -- in the sense large but probably still small, and we -- at the year we do acquisitions to grow the Company. So we really have done -- dealt with many challenges on the oppositional side, and all we wanted is to be responsible for our shareholders and also for our clients, for our customers. We have thousands of our workers and staff and employees working really hard to deliver values to our Shareholders. So that's also that I, last year, proposed to acquire the Company. And the reason he wants to share is it seems -- from our Company growth really rapidly, and we're given several acquisitions among the road, and so we have really dealt many challenges. For our Company we do need a platform, because we focus on technology and -- but the capital investment is also very important factor for the Company to continue to grow, because, as I just discussed earlier, we needed to advance further, expand our capacity. We see many opportunities in the marketplace and, without the capital, without the technology, we won't be able to capture all these opportunities out there in the marketplace in China. And so, in light of that, the Company, right now, in the US, do see our capital market here as -- the capital markets are to be very difficult for Chinese companies last year, and after -- particularly after a number of tax on Chinese companies. So the Company -- in order for the Company to continue to grow, and for the benefit of our Company and our customers and all that, he believes that privatization is the choice for the Company to continue to be on the healthy path. And during this privatization process, we -- the Company has followed every requirement and regulatory requirement and the laws, and we have the special -- independent special committee working on behalf of the minority shareholders. And each --they use very prominent investment advisors -- financial advisors to advise each party's work, and following exactly what the laws and regulations required, and did many, many months of work, very detailed and to have come this far. It's very long, so I have to see -- but, however, during this process, and we also see some -- encountered the short seller attacks, and they use the internet to use some unfounded --- made up, manufactured documents and some of the outright lies to attack the Company. And particularly the scheme is designed in a way that it particularly benefit short sellers, for example. They do this at a particular time, and then they attack the Company. So there's several times that it happened, and -- but you probably can see that this is very vicious and a very planned attack on the Company. And the main purpose is just to hurt our shareholders and to hurt our -- and to benefit to the -- for the benefit of a few of the short sellers. And, following the regulations and the laws under the special committee's evaluation process, the Company has signed the agreement to -- signed the merger agreement, in term of merger, in June. And also, and you can see -- sorry there, because he has said a lot of stuff. I wasn't able to write down all of them, so I was just trying to translate from memory. And the proposal that they made to acquire the shares -- outstanding shares in the marketplace, $24 is what I believe is protected the shareholders' interest and benefit, and also what you can see that the short sellers attack -- the (inaudible) attack, the [eBanks]. And actually he does communicate with the China Development Bank and the eBanks. And, for the Chinese Development Bank, they had about three to four months of rigorous due diligence of the Company, and they have finally approved the plan to support Mr. Yang and lend the money for him to acquire the shares. So this, all whole process that took long and really reflect that not only he feels responsible executing judicial duty to protect the shareholders' interest. And our special committee has also gone through many months of assessment and their work, with the responsibility for our shareholders. But the short sellers used the outright lies and the manufactured stories to attack the Company, so I would really encourage -advise our shareholders that you really need to see what's their real purpose, and you need to use your intelligence and analyze the information out there in the internet, because the internet age is just information overflow and the many false information would be floating around and people just make up stories, make up information that is floating on the internet and just are
192
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 10. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q2 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
trying to scare and hurt our shareholders. So what we have done for the last few months is we tried our -- made every effort to protect our shareholders' benefit. Okay. All right, any other questions?
Operator (Operator Instructions). Our next question comes from Justin Lumiere of [CGFI] Group. Please go ahead.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR Hi, Justin.
Justin Lumiere - CGFI Group - Analyst Hi. How are you doing?
Justin Lumiere - CGFI Group - Analyst Yes. I just saw that you expanded the liquidity and capital resources section, the overview, and I know that you discussed about tapping the Chinese capital markets just because -- with the difficulty with the US capital markets. But in there it's disclosed that there is a consulting agreement where they paid $3m for a five-year agreement to help tap into the Chinese capital markets. Can you just shed a little light on what that is, and why you use a consultant?
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR Okay. Let me elaborate the rationale behind that consulting agreement. First of all, there was large striking, last year mainly. Obviously, our management has continued to communicate and continued to expect and plan that the Company will continue to grow rapidly in the next few years, organically, or through acquisitions. And probably you can see that, in the past few years, we needed the capital, and our growth -- some from organic growth but largely also from acquisitions. So acquisition is a very important role to fuel the Company's continued growth, particularly in the China market where consolidation continues. And you can also learn from the capital market in the US, in capitalism. So that's our expectations, for the Company to continue to grow organically or through acquisitions. To support the planned growth, Management believes it is critical to maintain adequate access to capital and to have flexibility to deploy funds in areas needed, in a timely fashion, when opportunity arises. So we have identified the many domestic business opportunities, given the rapid economic growth in China and believe that an adequate access to capital could allow us to capture these business opportunities. However, in the past that you know well, understand and the Company relied, to a large extent, on the US capital markets to provide the funds for our large capital injection project and acquisitions, and for the repayment of certain debts.
193
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 10. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q2 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
You might remember, last year, the Company filed $100m self-registration statement -- that's public information -- to give the Management the ability to further access the US capital markets provide the Management with some comfort and flexibility with respect to future financing when making growth plans and business decisions. But however, everybody knows, starting in the middle of 2010, that we perceived that the US capital markets had become hostile, or very difficult, to US-listed Chinese companies, particularly those companies that became public in the US through a reverse merger process. So, funding opportunities we believe for all Chinese companies seemed to dwindle rapidly after short seller attacks on Chinese companies. A number of them later become of a more, not just a few, a number of Chinese companies in the middle of last year. So our Management quickly assessed the situation and believe that, in the near term, it wouldn't seem possible to raise capital from the US capital markets on the favorable terms, or possibly at all. So we believed that we needed to take quick action before opportunities to obtain financing deteriorated any further. Also, in October, the Company had received ongoing private buyout proposal submitted by the Chairman, Mr. Yang. So, given that the Management expects, once the Company -- should it go private, the Company would completely lose access to the US capital markets, so we needed to -- the Management needed to be vigilant about the next few years' capital needs. And if we will want to continue to grow the Company, obviously, the -- like Mr. Yang has just mentioned, the technology and the capital are a critical part to the Company's future. And the Management has ambitions to build the Company into a world-class and comparable -- competing with the global companies. And so, under these circumstances, we strongly believe that we'll need -- the Company will need to seek alternative source of financing for the next few years, in order to execute our business plan, especially if the Company is taken private. So the Company has the most -- since, the Company has most of its operations in China, and funding supply in China has been growing rapidly. The private equity funds and the government funds and all that, really has grown rapidly in China, so it is natural that the Company would target financial institutions in China. So we worked out a agreement with a third party that committed to provide an assistance to act in an advisory role to help the Company to raise capital in the next few years.
Justin Lumiere - CGFI Group - Analyst Yes. I guess what I wanted to know also, is this something that's necessary in China, doing business there, that you would require the assistance of a third-party advisor to tap the capital markets? Couldn't you go directly to banks?
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR Well, you should know that China is not as mature market -- capital market as in the US. Although you started to develop a lot of advisory companies like the investment bankers, like in the US, any investment bankers that arrange a loan, arrange something that would take a commission a lot higher than that. But in China, there is a lot of --mechanisms, systems have not established sophisticatedly and maturely and, although it's growing, it's developing. So you do have to consider, there are some common practices in China, what's good -- best for the business. So this is the decision that the Management made for the future of the Company.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR Yes, okay.
194
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 10. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q2 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
Justin Lumiere - CGFI Group - Analyst All right, thank you very much.
Operator The next question comes from Jonathan Hui of Senrigan Capital. Please go ahead.
Jonathan Hui - Senrigan Capital - Analyst Hi. I just had one question. You mentioned earlier that a number of the short sellers had actually been making outright lies about the Company. Now have you considered, or has the Management considered, seeking legal action against these short sellers, if that's the case?
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR We have stated in our press release the Company reserves the right to take legal actions against anyone who uses false information and attack the Company.
Jonathan Hui - Senrigan Capital - Analyst Do you know what legal rights you have in this kind of situation, and could you provide some details?
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR We do not have any details to provide. At this point, we are not at the point to provide any details regarding that.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR Yes. If information that would be -- that we believe it's appropriate to disclose, we'll disclose. But at this time, we are not -- we don't feel it's appropriate to disclose those information yet. Okay, any other questions?
Operator The next question comes from [Max Tsung of Cutler Group]. Please go ahead.
Max Tsung - Cutler Group - Analyst Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I was wondering if you have any kind of timeline or deadline for the SEC review regarding the management-led buyout, and if you have any idea of what kind of questions they're asking, if you've met with their lawyers or if you know what kind of information they're considering for their review?
195
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 10. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q2 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR We do not have those details available. The SEC review process is a standard procedure, and the SEC will take their time. And we will work with SEC to -- if they have any comments, we will work with SEC to respond to any comments they have. But, obviously, we do not have control on the time, how long SEC will take. So we will just work with them and will, on our part, -we will ensure that the process goes as smoothly as possible, from our part.
Max Tsung - Cutler Group - Analyst Okay, thanks. And then one other question. One of the allegations that the short sellers have made is that the internal controls of the auditing that you have might not be sufficient. And, looking at your last 10K, it said that Frazer Frost was your current auditor. I was wondering, given that they've been involved in some questionable accounting practices at other firms, I was wondering if you still find they are sufficient or if you've considered finding an alternative auditor for your finances?
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR As far as the material weaknesses that the short sellers are accusing, actually we disclosed that fully in our 10K and we did also made some explanations in the 10K that -- what are the material weaknesses, what are the -- particularly we mentioned that it's mainly associated with our Xi'an Simo facility, which was a state-owned company that we acquired in 2009. So we are -- the Company, the Management, has been working rigorously to enhance the internal control procedure at Xi'an Simo since the day that we acquired them. But however, such a big company, a large former state-owned company, you really need a lot of work. So we realize that, and so, at the end of the year we realized that still material weaknesses existed, but we will continue to deal with that and enhance in full our Company. And so we don't hide those. If we have weaknesses, we will disclose, and we follow the SEC regulations and the laws to disclosure area. Well, last year (inaudible), we know where we are weak and where we need to improve, and that's all our intention as to for the best of the Company and also be responsible for our shareholders. Regarding to Frazer Frost question, I don't think it's appropriate to say that one company had a problem or the company audited by this auditor had a problem. Or maybe alleged the problem, accused the problem, does not mean that every other company audited by the same auditor would have problems or the auditor would have -- make mistakes or any -- for all the other companies. So I don't think that it's appropriate to say that, and so that -- I will just close my comments on that point. Okay.
Max Tsung - Cutler Group - Analyst Okay, thank you very much.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR Okay, we have -- we run out of the time, and we will just close the conference now. But I would like to -- before we turn off the conference, I would like to pass this call to Mr. Yang, to see if he has any closing remarks before we call off. (Spoken in Mandarin).
Tianfu Yang - Harbin Electric Inc - Chairman and CEO (Spoken in Mandarin).
196
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
Aug. 10. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q2 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc - EVP Finance & IR Okay, Mr. Yang wants to say a few words. First of all, he was very happy that he has the chance to share with our shareholders the achievements that the Company has made so far. And also, the whole -- entire employees of the Company has worked so hard to add value to our shareholders. So and we appreciate for shareholders, and we also appreciate the shareholders, and it matters for our support. And obviously, the Company has -- or is in a very complex situation right -- critical, I should say, very critical point at this moment. And we did get a lot of attention from the marketplace from our shareholders and from interested investors. And the Company, and the Management, I believe our responsibility, one of the responsibility is to make to -- create value for our shareholders and to protect our shareholders' value. And this is what I actually believe, and we will work every effort to continue to do so, to create value for our shareholders and to protect our shareholders' interest and benefit. And, in the past, our shareholders have supported the Company -- loyal shareholders have supported the Company, have given Mr. Yang and the Company a lot of support, which he fully appreciate. And I truly think that those are my asset and those are the best part, that I really had -- that we really have had the shareholders' support, and this is the best part of my life. I so [badly], truly want to thank you, at this moment. Okay, that's the close for the conference today. And, if anyone has further questions, please feel free to call me at 61 312 8612. And thank you, have a nice day. Bye-bye.
Operator The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
DISCLAIMER
Thomson Reuters reserves the right to make changes to documents, content, or other information on this web site without obligation to notify any person of such changes. In the conference calls upon which Event Transcripts are based, companies may make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items. Such forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those stated in any forward-looking statement based on a number of important factors and risks, which are more specifically identified in the companies' most recent SEC filings. Although the companies may indicate and believe that the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements are reasonable, any of the assumptions could prove inaccurate or incorrect and, therefore, there can be no assurance that the results contemplated in the forward-looking statements will be realized. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN EVENT TRANSCRIPTS IS A TEXTUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S CONFERENCE CALL AND WHILE EFFORTS ARE MADE TO PROVIDE AN ACCURATE TRANSCRIPTION, THERE MAY BE MATERIAL ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR INACCURACIES IN THE REPORTING OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THE CONFERENCE CALLS. IN NO WAY DOES THOMSON REUTERS OR THE APPLICABLE COMPANY ASSUME ANY RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS MADE BASED UPON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED ON THIS WEB SITE OR IN ANY EVENT TRANSCRIPT. USERS ARE ADVISED TO REVIEW THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S CONFERENCE CALL ITSELF AND THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S SEC FILINGS BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS. 2011, Thomson Reuters. All Rights Reserved. 4169367-2011-08-10T20:05:12.463
197
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
China August 4, 2011
Closing Price (8/3/11): 12-Month Target Price: 52-Week Range: Market Cap (MM): Shares O/S (MM): Float (MM): Shares Short (MM): Avg. Vol. (000) Book Value/Share: Dividend/Yield: Risk Profile: Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Maxim Group FYE: December 2009A: GAAP 2010A: GAAP 2011E: GAAP 2012E: GAAP LT Earnings Growth Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Consensus-First Call FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Echo He, MD, PhD ehe@maximgrp.com $17.68 $24 $5.82 - $25.05 $555.2 31.4 16.8 7.7 2,040 $19.60 NA Medium Revenues ($M) 2011E 2012E $103.8A $122.1 $112.2 $134.7 $123.0 $140.4 $131.6 $150.4 $470.7 $547.6 Current Current EPS P/E $0.77 23.0 $2.46 7.2 $2.14 8.3 $2.67 6.6 10% - 15% GAAP Quarterly EPS Current 2011E $0.34A $0.48 $0.63 $0.68 Current 2012E $0.58 $0.66 $0.70 $0.74
Buy
Expecting margin pressure in 2Q11; Progress of SEC approval is a near-term catalyst; Reiterate Buy and $24 price target
HRBN is scheduled to report 2Q11 financial results on Tuesday, August 9, after the Market closes. A conference call is scheduled for 9:00am EDT the next day (Wednesday, August 10), with a dial-in number of (877) 317-6789 and the ID Harbin Electric.
We expect HRBN to report revenue inline or higher than consensus and our estimates, mainly driven by gradual capacity expansion in its rotary motor facilities. However, its EPS may come below consensus and our estimate, mainly due to an increase in raw material prices. Chinese manufacturers across the board are experiencing margin pressure. On one hand, prices of basic raw materials (steel and copper are specific to HRBN), labor, utilities and transportations are mostly higher than last year; on the other hand, governments price control on key manufacturing products prevents them from raising ASP. Our channel checks show that steel and copper prices increased in 2Q11 by 3% and 24% y/y, respectively. The SEC approval process of HRBNs LBO may be shorter than previously expected. Recently, another Chinese company, China Security and Surveillance Technology, Inc. (CSR NR) received SEC approval on its LBO proposal, announcing on July 29 a record date and a meeting date for its annual shareholders meeting to vote on the LBO proposal. CSR filed its first draft of 13E-3 and preliminary proxy on May 31, 2011, and followed with three amended versions thereafter. Based on CSRs timeline, HRBN may be able to receive SEC approval by the end of September, about two months after its first filing of schedule 13E-3 and preliminary proxy on July 13. 2011. We reiterate our Buy rating. Our $24 price target is mainly based on a favorable outcome of HRBNs LBO. In our opinion, the persistent gap, currently ~30% between the share price and the LBO offering price at $24 per share, creates buying opportunities.
$2.14 $2.67 Quarterly EPS 2011E 2012E $0.34A $0.58 $0.50 $0.66 $0.62 $0.70 $0.66 $0.74 $2.12 $2.78 (212) 895-3718
Maxim Group LLC 405 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10174 www.maximgrp.com
SEE PAGES 4-6 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS 198
Chinese Industrial Companies China Automotive CAAS A-Power APWR FushiCopperweld FSIN Lihua International LIWA Shengdatech SDTH Wonder Auto WATG ChemSpec CPC China Gerui Adv. Materia CHOP SORL Auto Parts SORL Average HK Listed China Motor Companies Harbin Power Equipment 1133-HK Shanghai Electric Group 2727-HK Dongfang Electric Group 1072-HK Chongqing Machinery & E2722-HK Shanghai Prime Machine 2345-HK Average
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ -$ $ $ $
$ -$ $ -$ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
China Mainland Listed China Motor Companies Xiangtan Electric 600416-SH $ 1.74 Zhejiang Founder Motor 002196-SZ $ 2.65 BroadOcean 002249-SZ $ 3.07 Jiangte Electric Motor 002176-SZ $ 4.02 Shanghai Electric Group 601727-SH $ 1.00 Dongfang Electric Group 600875-SH $ 3.80 Average
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ -$
US/International Motor Companies Siemens SI $ 117.51 $ 102,084 ABB ABB $ 23.13 $ 52,968 Emerson Electric EMR $ 48.46 $ 36,499 Illinois Tool Works ITW $ 48.87 $ 24,556 Cummins CMI $ 101.54 $ 20,064 Magna International MGA $ 46.98 $ 5,297 Rockwell Automation ROK $ 70.82 $ 10,099 Lear Corporation LEA $ 47.05 $ 2,197 Regal Beloit RBC $ 57.99 $ 2,233 Smith AO AOS $ 40.69 $ 1,242 Franklin Electric FELE $ 44.51 $ 1,035 Average Source: Thomson One, Bloomberg and Maxim Group estimates.
$ 6.09 $ 1.25 $ 2.69 $ 3.08 $ 5.17 $ 4.34 $ 3.05 $ 4.42 n/a $ 2.87 $ 1.94
$ 11.30 $ 1.58 $ 3.26 $ 3.82 $ 8.93 $ 5.16 $ 4.64 $ 5.30 n/a $ 2.18 $ 2.54
$ 10.94 $ 1.94 $ 3.83 $ 4.47 $ 10.63 $ 5.59 $ 5.43 $ 6.00 n/a -$ 2.97 $ 2.96
19.3x 18.5x 18.0x 15.9x 19.6x 10.8x 23.2x 10.7x -14.2x 22.9x 17.3x
10.4x 14.6x 14.9x 12.8x 11.4x 9.1x 15.3x 8.9x -18.6x 17.6x 13.4x
10.7x 11.9x 12.7x 10.9x 9.5x 8.4x 13.0x 7.8x 13.7x 15.1x 11.4x
199
4.9 (2.3) 2.6 52.9% (0.1) 1.9% (0.2) 3.8% (0.3) 2.3 47.1% 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0% 2.3 0.0% 2.3 47.6% 2.2 6.4 6.4 0.36 0.36 0.1 2.4 48.6% 8.28
23.6 $ 387% (12.1) 11.6 350% 48.9% (0.3) 1.4% (1.3) 5.3% (1.6) 10.0 42.1% 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0% 10.0 0.0% 10.0 333% 42.3% 0.5 11.1 14.9 15.1
76.3 19.3 18.1 19.3 20.4 77.2 21.2 20.8 21.3 23.5 86.8 27% -3% -10% 0% 20% 1% 10% 15% 10% 15% 12% 56% 18% 19% 16% 16% 16% 16% 17% 15% 15% 16% 16% 18.3 60.8 15.5 14.7 15.3 16.1 61.7 17.1 16.2 16.8 17.7 67.9 51% -4% (3.0%) 0% 15% 2% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 28% 14% 15% 13% 12% 12% 13% 14% 12% 12% 12% 12% 93.2 21.8 25.9 27.0 30.8 105.5 27.2 31.1 31.9 35.5 125.7 31% -3% 10% 15% 30% 13% 25% 20% 18% 15% 19% 0% 22% 21% 23% 22% 23% 22% 22% 23% 23% 24% 23% 188.5 46.3 51.3 58.7 62.4 218.7 55.6 64.1 67.5 71.8 258.9 11% 3% 15% 20% 25% 16% 20% 25% 15% 15% 18% 0% 0% 20% 44% 45% 46% 48% 47% 46% 46% 48% 48% 48% 47% 40.4 $ 65.4 $ 120.8 $ 223.2 $ 426.5 $ 103.8 $ 112.2 $ 123.0 $ 131.6 $ 470.7 $ 122.1 $ 134.7 $ 140.4 $ 150.4 $ 547.6 71% 62% 85% 85% 91% (1.6%) 6% 12% 24% 10% 18% 20% 14% 14% 16% (20.8) (33.0) (73.3) (146.6) (290.8) (73.6) (80.4) (87.6) (94.1) (335.7) (87.0) (96.5) (100.5) (107.9) (391.9) 19.7 70% 48.6% (1.5) 3.7% (4.2) 10.3% (5.7) 14.0 34.6% 0.0 (2.5) 4.4 18.4 0.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 84% 45.6% 1.0 19.5 16.6 18.3 32.4 65% 49.6% (1.1) 1.6% (7.7) 11.7% (8.7) 23.7 36.3% (0.2) (6.6) (6.8) 16.9 0.0% 16.9 0.0% 16.9 (8%) 25.8% 7.2 13.2 17.1 18.6 47.5 46% 39.3% (1.2) 1.0% (11.9) 9.9% (13.1) 34.4 45% 28.5% 1.6 (6.1) (4.5) 29.9 (4.5) 15.1% 25.4 0.0% 25.4 50% 21.0% 9.5 40.0 20.2 21.3 76.6 61% 34.3% (2.1) 0.9% (18.7) 8.4% (20.8) 55.8 62% 25.0% 5.5 (12.3) (24.9) 30.9 (7.8) 25.2% 23.1 (3.5) 11.3% 19.6 (23%) 8.8% (0.1) 16.3 25.6 25.7 135.7 77% 31.8% (3.4) 0.8% (39.0) 9.1% (42.4) 93.3 67% 21.9% 5.5 (4.6) 0.8 94.2 (14.9) 15.8% 79.2 (2.4) 2.6% 76.8 291% 18.0% 13.7 90.5 31.1 31.3 30.2 (15%) 29.1% (3.9) 3.7% (10.1) 9.7% (14.0) 16.3 (41%) 15.7% 1.1 (1.9) (1.2) 15.0 (4.2) 27.9% 10.8 (0.0) 0.1% 10.8 (47.4%) 10.4% 2.4 13.3 31.3 31.4 31.9 -10% 28.4% (1.3) 1.2% (10.3) 9.2% (11.7) 20.2 (28%) 18.0% 1.2 (1.9) (1.2) 19.1 (3.8) 20.0% 15.2 0.0% 15.2 (40.6%) 13.6% 15.2 31.3 31.4 35.4 5% 28.8% (1.2) 1.0% (9.0) 7.3% (10.2) 25.2 15% 20.5% 1.3 (1.9) (1.0) 24.1 (4.3) 18.0% 19.8 0.0% 19.8 11% 16.1% 19.8 31.4 31.5 0.63 $ 0.63 $ 10% 2.9 0.1 28.2 6.51 37.5 21% 28.5% (1.3) 1.0% (9.5) 7.2% (10.8) 26.7 71% 20.3% 1.4 (1.9) (0.9) 25.8 (4.4) 17.0% 21.4 0.0% 21.4 69% 16.3% 21.4 31.4 31.6 135.0 -1% 28.7% (7.8) 1.7% (38.9) 8.3% (46.6) 88.4 -5% 18.8% 5.1 (7.7) (4.4) 84.0 (16.7) 19.9% 67.3 (0.0) 0.0% 67.3 -12% 14.3% 67.3 31.3 31.5 35.1 16% 28.8% (1.0) 0.8% (10.0) 8.2% (11.0) 24.1 48% 19.8% 1.2 (1.9) (1.1) 23.0 (4.6) 20.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 70% 15.1% 18.4 31.5 31.6 0.58 $ 0.58 $ 69% 38.2 20% 28.4% (1.1) 0.8% (10.1) 7.5% (11.2) 27.0 34% 20.1% 1.5 (1.9) (0.9) 26.2 (5.2) 20.0% 20.9 0.0% 20.9 37% 15.5% 20.9 31.6 31.7 0.66 $ 0.66 $ 36% 39.9 13% 28.4% (1.1) 0.8% (10.2) 7.3% (11.4) 28.5 13% 20.3% 1.4 (1.9) (0.9) 27.6 (5.5) 20.0% 22.1 0.0% 22.1 12% 15.7% 22.1 31.6 31.7 0.70 $ 0.70 $ 11% 42.5 13% 28.2% (1.2) 0.8% (11.0) 7.3% (12.2) 30.3 13% 20.1% 1.3 (1.9) (1.1) 29.2 (5.8) 20.0% 23.4 0.0% 23.4 9% 15.5% 23.4 31.7 31.8 0.74 $ 0.74 $ 8% 155.7 15% 28.4% (4.4) 0.8% (41.3) 7.5% (45.7) 109.9 24% 20.1% 5.5 (7.7) (4.0) 106.0 (21.2) 20.0% 84.8 0.0% 84.8 26% 15.5% 84.8 31.6 31.7 2.68 2.67 25% 14.7 1.3 125.9 23.0% 6.36
60.3 22% 27% 40.2 19% 18% 71.4 157% 23% 32% $ 44.5
$ $
1.11 $ 0.99 $ 1.01 $ 0.91 $ 53% (10%) 2.2 6.2 0.9 1.6 17.1 42.3% 7.80 31.4 48.1% 7.30
1.25 $ 0.77 $ 2.47 $ 0.35 $ 0.49 $ 1.19 $ 0.77 $ 2.46 $ 0.34 $ 0.48 $ 31% (35.7%) 221% (47.4%) (40.8%) 7.7 17.0 11.5 2.9 2.9 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 43.8 36.3% 6.83 74.1 33.2% 6.84 105.8 24.8% 6.76 19.3 6.57 23.2 6.54
0.68 $ 2.15 $ 0.68 $ 2.14 $ 54% -13% 2.9 11.5 0.1 0.4 29.7 6.48 100.4 21.3% 6.48
6.45
6.42
6.39
6.36
200
Source: Investars.com
As of:
% of Coverage Universe
8/4/2011
% of Ratings for which Firm provided Banking Services in the last 12 months 24.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Performance* Buy Hold Sell Expected total return of 15% or more over next 12 months Expected total return of plus or minus 14% over next 12 months Expected total negative return of at least 15% over next 12 months
* Relative to Nasdaq Composite. An Under Review (UR) rating represents a stock that the Firm has temporarily placed under review due to a material change.
Maxim Group makes a market in Harbin Electric, Inc. Maxim Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Harbin Electric, Inc. in the next 3 months.
I, Echo He, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firms total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. Valuation Methods: Our Harbin Electric, Inc. valuation is based on the announced $24 per share price in the leverage buyout proposal. It is also supported by our comparable company analysis and discount cash flow method. Price Target and Investment Risks: Aside from general market and other economic risks, risks particular to our Harbin Electric, Inc. rating include: (1) Failure of the proposed LBO to be completed; (2) Slowdown of
201
RISK RATINGS
Risk ratings take into account both fundamental criteria and price volatility. Speculative Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to early-stage companies with minimal to no revenues, lack of earnings, balance sheet concerns, and/or a short operating history. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be significantly above the industry. Price Volatility: Because of the inherent fundamental criteria of the companies falling within this risk category, the price volatility is expected to be significant with the possibility that the investment could eventually be worthless. Speculative stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. High Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies having below-average revenue and earnings visibility, negative cash flow, and low market cap or public float. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be above the industry. Price volatility: The price volatility of companies falling within this category is expected to be above the industry. High-risk stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. Medium Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to approximate the industry average. Low Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have above-average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to be below the industry.
DISCLAIMERS
Some companies that Maxim Group LLC follows are emerging growth companies whose securities typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Maxim Group LLC research reports may not be suitable for some investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance.
202
203
Mark Tobin, (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Kun Tao, CFA, (949) 720-7149 ktao@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA, ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
China
U.S.-Listed China - Privatization, PE Investment, & Dual-Listing (5th Edition)
This report provides an update on the activity within the U.S.-listed China sector related to privatization, PE investment, and dual-listing. It includes a table providing details for each company pursuing privatization. PRIVATIZATION UPDATE Since our last edition (dated June 21, 2011), two more companies (CHNG, TBV) made goingprivate announcements, bringing the total number of active privatization transactions within the U.S.-listed China sector to ten. Please refer to the attached tables for relevant details. We have once again expanded our tables to include more information as deals proceed. Below are some updates since our last edition, including the official filing of HRBN's SC 13E3 together with a preliminary proxy document. We believe this event was noteworthy, bolstering confidence in many of the ongoing privatizations. This confidence was reflected in stock prices, with discounts to respective offer prices narrowing by more than 10 percentage points on average over the past month.
s
s s
June 27, 2011 - TBV filed SC 13E3 announcing its Chairman & CEO, who currently owns 95.1% stake, is to take the company private for $1.72 per share. As this is deemed short-form merger under Section 253 of the Delaware General Corporation Law, no board approval or shareholder vote is required. June 30, 2011 - CHNG announced that its Chairman & CEO (owns ~14% of the company) is working with a consortium backed by Themes Investment Partners to formulate a proposal to take the company private. July 5, 2011 - CSR announced expiration of Go-shop period. July 11, 2011 - CPC announced that shareholder extraordinary general meeting of shareholders to consider and vote on the going-private proposal would be held on Aug 15, 2011 in Shanghai. July 13, 2011 - HRBN officially filed SC13E3 together with preliminary proxy document.
ATV's TENDER OFFER Related to this activity, on July 12th, Acorn International's (ATV) co-founders (Chairman and CEO) successfully completed a tender offer, purchasing 20M ordinary shares and regaining a 52% controlling stake in the company. Of note, the board recommended shareholders reject the tender offer based on a number of factors; however, a tender offer is not subject to board approval and nonetheless was executed (oversubscribed). We view tender offers as an alternative method (vs. privatization) for Chairmen/management to increase ownership.
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 6 to 8 of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 24 Corporate Plaza | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
204
CHINA
Summary of On-going Deals
China Natural Gas CNinsure CHNG CISG Chairman & CEO, TPG Asia, Chairman consortium backed by & CEO, CDH Themes Investment Inservice Partners Jun-30-2011 14.0% $4.25
(1)
Funtalk China Fushi Copperweld FTLK FSIN Chairman & CEO (key Chariman & CEO, mgt), ARCH, Capital Abax Global Capital Ally, GM Investment
(4)
Tiens Biotech Group TBV TIENS (USA) Investment Holdings Group (owned by Chairman & CEO) Jun-27-2011 95.1% $1.72 67.0% --28.7x NA $1.60 (7.0%) Short-form merger. No need for board approval nor shareholder vote N/A Jun-27-2011 N/A $122.7M
Announcement Date Pre-deal Buyer/mgmt Ownership % Bid Price per Share or ADS Premium over previous day close Price Revision Date Revised Price P/E (TTM) P/E (NTM)
(2) (2)
May-16-2011 34.3% $19.00 44.4% --15.0x 13.3x $14.81 (22.1%) Under board review
Nov-11-2010 55.8% $8.00 26.6% Mar-21-2011 $8.10 9.0x 8.2x $7.80 (3.7%) Shareholder EGM scheduled on Aug 15, 2011; Expected to close by the end of Q3'11 Mar-21-2011 May-03-2011
Mar-25-2011 77.1% $7.10 15.4% May-31-2011 $7.20 8.4x 8.7x $6.71 (6.8%) Board approved, pending shareholder vote; Expected to close by the end of Q3' 2011 May-31-2011 Jun-14-2011
Nov-03-2010 29.2% $11.50 26.4% --8.8x 8.2x $7.86 (31.7%) Under board review
Oct-11-2010 40.6% $24.00 20.2% --8.8x 7.3x $19.09 (20.5%) Board approved, pending shareholder vote; Expected to close in Q4' 2011 Jun-20-2011 Jul-13-2011 >50% total & >50% of disinterested shares $750.0M (1) Debt: CDB-$400M, Abax note-$25M; (2) Equity: Abax cash$38.8M, Mgmt rollover$264.1M, Abax rollover-$40.6M China Development Bank: US$ 400M Abax: US$25M 23.2% Morgan Stanley & Co. / Lazard Freres & Co. LLC Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP
Apr-29-2011 31.6% $12.00 100.0% --10.9x 10.1x $6.00 (50.0%) Under board review; Shares halted since Apr 11, 2011
22.8% --5.8x 5.2x $3.41 (19.8%) Board informed; (buyers formulating proposal)
Board Approval / Definitive Agreement Initial Filing of SC 13E3 Voting Requirement Implied Equity Value (3)
Apr-20-2011 May-31-2011
>50% total & >75% total & >50% of disinterested >2/3 of voting shares >50% of disinterested >50% of disinterested shares at EGM shares shares $292.0M $257.8M $583.2M $433.9M (1) Debt: None; (2) Equity: PAG Asia Capital-$150M (5) , PE rollover-$223.5M , Mgmt rollover$111.1M None 77.7% Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Source of funding
N/A
(1) Debt: $70M; (2) Equity: Primavera$65M, Mgmt-$6M, Mgmt rollover- $168M
N/A
N/A
N/A N/A
None N/A
N/A N/A
N/A N/A Cowen and Company, LLC / Morgan Joseph TriArtisan LLC Not disclosed
N/A
Houlihan Lokey
Barclays Capital
N/A
N/A
Skadden, Arps, Slate, Shearman & Sterling Meagher & Flom LLP / LLP Maples and Calder
N/A
Premium of bid price above the closing price on previous trading day before announcement Valuation multiples are based on TTM and NTM EPS as of deal announcement date; data sourced from ROTH research if companies are covered, or Bloomberg if otherwise; NA indicates not available, NM indicates not meaningful Implied Equity Value is calculated based on latest available bid price and shares outstanding number as disclosed PUDA stock halted since April 11, 2011, lastest available close price is $6.00 US$ 150M investment in convertible preferred shares
Page 2 of 8
205
CHINA
Summary of Completed or Abandoned Deals BMP Sunstone BJGP Sanofi-Aventis Buyers (as announced)
Announcement Date Pre-deal Buyer/mgmt Ownership % Bid Price per Share or ADS Price 1-Day Prior to Announcement Premium (1) P/E (TTM) (3) P/E (NTM) (3) Status
Oct-28-2010 23.0% $10.00 $7.66 31% 125.0x 90.9x Completed on Feb 24, 2011
Qiao Xing Mobile (2) QXM Parent Company Qiao Xing Universal Resources, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING) Sep-09-2010 61.0% $3.92 $3.55 10% NM NA Abandoned due to lack of quorum in shareholder meeting on Apr 7, 2011 Not involved Jan-03-2011 Oct-22-2010 >50% of disinterested voting shareholders representing >75% of voting disinterested shares Not involved Not disclosed Not disclosed
Tongjitang Chinese Medicines Sinoenergy TCM SNEN Skywide Capital Management Hanmax (controlled by CEO) / CEO & Director (owned by management) Fosun Oct-12-2009 39.1% $1.90 $1.28 48% NM NA Completed on Sep 29, 2010 Apr-08-2010 83.0% $4.50 $3.78 19% NM 18.0x Completed on Apr 15, 2011 Mar-10-2008 39.2% $10.20 $6.60 55% NM 11.3x Withdrawn on Jun 27, 2008
Debt/Convertible Financing Board Approval/Signing Definitive Agreement Initial Filing of SC 13E3 Voting Threshold Post-deal Private Equity Ownership Board Financial Advisor Board Legal Advisor
(1) (2)
CITIC Bank US$ 25M Nov-01-2010 Nov-26-2010 >50% of shareholders representing >75% of voting shares Not involved Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Sheppard, Mullin, Richter & Hampton LLP / Thorp Alberga
Not involved Brean Murray, Carret & Co. Arent Fox LLP
Premium of bid price above the closing price on previous trading day before announcement The offer price is 1.9 shares of XING common stock plus $0.8 in cash, we convert to dollar value using XING's closing price on Sept-8-2010 (3) Valuation multiples are calculated as of deal announcement date; data sourced from ROTH research if companies are covered, or Bloomberg if otherwise; NA indicates not available, NM indicates not meaningful Source: Company Filings, Bloomberg, ROTH Capital Partners
Page 3 of 8
206
CHINA
RISKS
Going private risk. There are still numerous steps remaining in the privatization process. The failure to complete this transaction in a timely manner could negatively impact share price. Change in macro policies. CFSG's major revenues come from the iron and steel industry, and significant changes in the steel industry can impact the company business prospect. Concerns on over-capacity, horizontal consolidations, accompanied with imposed tariffs on steel exports, have placed the industry under close monitoring by the central government. Concentration risk. The company's revenue recognition and profit generation relies on large projects. Any unexpected changes or progress delay in project execution will significantly impact CFSG's financial performance. Extended customer payment period. Depressed steel prices and continuous market consolidation have caused many steel makers facing challenging market conditions. Accordingly, extended customer payment period may have led to recent CFSG decrease in cash and increasing A/R balance.
RISKS
FTLK may need to raise additional capital to support CapEx requirements Dependence on Samsung as principal supplier - Samsung has been the major supplier of Funtalk''s wholesale distribution business since inception. We believe such dependence exposes Funtalk to significant risk in the event of a downturn in Samsung''s business prospects, as well as any deterioration of its strategic relationship with Samsung. Dominating market power of mobile communication carriers - Funtalk may have limited bargaining power and flexibility when negotiating with carriers in both wholesale and retail operations. Short product life cycle of mobile communication devices: rapidly changing customer preference and demand Potential downturn of overall mobile communication market - On a macro level, we believe Funtalk will be impacted by the overall progress of the mobile communication market, 3G spending and customer demand as well as IT infrastructure/network technology advancements. Changes in the regulatory environment could alter the market/competitive landscape - The Chinese regulatory body (namely MIIT) has the ability to significant influence the industry.
Page 4 of 8
207
CHINA
RISKS
Volatile raw material prices. Fushi's selling prices are highly dependent on copper, aluminum and steel prices. Changes in these prices may adversely impact demand for FSIN's bi-metallic products and its operational results. Execution/integration risk. FSIN continues to integrate its acquired operations, including Copperweld, Shanghai Hongtai, and Dalian Jinchuan. Its overall global expansion strategy faces execution risk due to a variety of factors. Going private transaction risk. In November 2010, FSIN's Board of Directors received a going private proposal from its Chairman (Mr. Fu) and Abax Global Capital to acquire all of the outstanding shares of common stock for $11.50 per share. The inability to complete this transaction could negatively impact share performance. Management turnover. The company's current CFO, Craig Studwell, was appointed in October 2010. While we view Mr. Studwell as highly experienced and capable, we note that his tenure with FSIN is limited.
RISKS
Change in macro policies in China. Two of HRBN's major catalysts, oil pump for oilfield and linear motors for urban metro lines, can be largely affected by central and local government policies. The development of urban railways can experience delays that out of control of HRBN, such as delay in construction. Volatile raw materials costs. HRBN is subject to market fluctuations and volatility of two major raw materials, copper and steel respectively.
Page 5 of 8
208
CHINA
Disclosures:
ROTH and/or its employees, officers, directors and owners own options, rights or warrants to purchase shares of Fushi Copperweld, Inc. stock. Within the last twelve months, ROTH has received compensation for investment banking services from Funtalk China Holdings Limited. ROTH makes a market in shares of China Fire & Security Group, Inc., Fushi Copperweld, Inc., Funtalk China Holdings Limited and Harbin Electric, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. Within the last twelve months, ROTH has managed or co-managed a public offering for Funtalk China Holdings Limited. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral. On May 26, 2011, ROTH changed its rating system in order to incorporate coverage that is Under Review.
Page 6 of 8
209
CHINA
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 07/19/11 Count Percent 51 24.4 6 10.5 0 0 0 0
Rating Buy [B] Neutral [N] Sell [S] Under Review [UR]
Count 209 57 2 0
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months.
Page 7 of 8
210
CHINA
Page 8 of 8
211
Key Data Ticker: HRBN 2010 Sales: 426,481,250 Major Industry: Machinery & Equipment Sub Industry: Miscellaneous Machinery & Equipment Country: United States Currency: U.S. Dollars Fiscal Year Ends: December Employees 4,430 Exchanges: NAS Share Type: Common
Harbin Electric, Inc. (Harbin Electric) is a holding company. It designs, develops, manufactures, supplies and services a range of electric motors, including linear motors, specialty micro-motors and industrial rotary motors. It sells its products in China, but also to certain international markets. The Company operates four manufacturing facilities in China: Harbin Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd. (Harbin Tech Full), Shanghai Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd. (Shanghai Tech Full), Weihai Tech Full Simo Motor Co., Ltd. (Weihai Tech Full) and Xi'an Tech Full Simo Motor Co., Ltd. (Xi'an Tech Full Simo). The Company offers three product lines: linear motors (LMs) and integrated systems, specialty micro-motors and industrial rotary motors. The Company offers a range of industrial rotary motors, including small, medium, and large-sized motors and some specialized motors, such as high/low voltage motors and speed control motors. The Company acquired Xi'an Tech Full Simo in October 2009. Stock Chart Officers Chairman & Chief Executive Tianfu Yang Chief Financial Officer Zedong Xu Executive Vice President & Secretary Christy Young Shue
Stock Price (7/8/2011): 16.91 Recent stock performance 1 Week 3.7% 4 Weeks 3.9% 13 Weeks -11.8% 52 Weeks -3.0% Earnings / Dividends (as of 3/31/2011) Earnings 0.34 2.14 Ratio Analysis Dividends 0.00 0.00
Market Capitalization: 528,451,366 Total Shares Outstanding: 31,250,820 Closely Held Shares: 10,642,882
212
Price / Earnings Ratio 7.90 Dividend Yield Price / Sales Ratio Price / Book Ratio 1.24 Payout Ratio
0.00% 0.00%
1.23 % Held by Insiders 34.06% Address Phone +86 86 451-8611-6757 Home Page http://www.harbinelectric.com
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
213
223 121 24 40 65
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 (Figures in Millions of U.S. Dollars)
Harbin Electric currently has 4,430 employees. With sales of $426.48 million , this equates to sales of US$96,271 per employee. This is a great deal lower than the three comparable companies, which had sales between US$171,191 and US$258,571 per employee. Note that some of the figures stated herein could be distorted based on exact classification of employees and subcontractors. Sales Comparisons (Fiscal Year ending 2010) Company Harbin Electric American Railcar Industries, Inc. Year Ended Sales Sales Sales/ (mlns) Growth Emp (US$) Largest Region 91.0% 96,271 the United States (100.0%) 258,571 Taiwan (29.2%) 171,191 the United States (100.0%)
Kulicke And Soffa Industries, Inc. Sep 2010 762.784 238.7% Dec 2010 273.563 -35.4%
214
Cascade Corporation
30.4%
Recent Stock Performance For the 52 weeks ending 7/8/2011, the stock of this company was down 3.0% to $16.91. During the past 13 weeks, the stock has fallen 11.8%. During the past 52 weeks, the stock of Harbin Electric has performed significantly worse than the three comparable companies, which saw gains between 36.3% and 117.7%. During the 12 months ending 3/31/2011, earnings per share totalled $2.14 per share. Thus, the Price / Earnings ratio is 7.90. These 12 month earnings are lower than the earnings per share achieved during the calendar year ending last December, when the company reported earnings of 2.46 per share. Earnings per share rose 219.5% in 2010 from 2009. Note that the earnings number Includes Or Excludes Extraordinary Charge Or Credit. This company is currently trading at 1.24 times sales. Harbin Electric is trading at 1.23 times book value. The company's price to book ratio is lower than that of all three comparable companies, which are trading between 1.81 and 2.23 times book value. Summary of company valuations (as of 7/8/2011). Company Harbin Electric Kulicke And Soffa Industries, Inc. American Railcar Industries, Inc. Cascade Corporation P/E 7.9 5.2 N/A 18.4 Price/ Price/ Book Sales 1.23 2.12 1.81 2.23 1.24 1.07 1.42 52 Wk Pr Chg -3.00% 36.30% 54.86%
2.00 117.66%
The market capitalization of this company is $528.45 million . The capitalization of the floating stock (i.e., that which is not closely held) is $348.48 million . Dividend Analysis This company has paid no dividends during the last 12 months. The company has not paid any dividends during the previous 6 calendar years. Profitability Analysis On the $426.48 million in sales reported by the company in 2010, the cost of goods sold totalled $281.10 million, or 65.9% of sales (i.e., the gross profit was 34.1% of sales). This gross profit margin is lower than the company achieved in 2009, when cost of goods sold totalled 63.6% of sales. The gross margin in 2010 was the lowest of the previous five years (in 2007, the gross margin had been as high as 51.2%). There was a wide variation in the gross profit margins at the three comparable companies, from 11.9% of sales to 46.3% of sales. The company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amorization (EBITDA) were $102.98 million, or 24.1% of sales. This EBITDA margin is worse than the company achieved in 2009, when the EBITDA margin was equal to 27.1% of sales. The three comparable companies had EBITDA margins that were all less (between 2.5% and 22.0%) than that achieved by Harbin Electric. In 2010, earnings before extraordinary items at Harbin Electric were $76.82 million, or 18.0% of sales. This profit margin is an improvement over the level the company achieved in 2009, when the profit margin was 8.8% of sales. The company's return on equity in 2010 was 23.3%. This was significantly better than the 11.2% return the company achieved in 2009. (Extraordinary items have been excluded). Profitability Comparison Gross Earns Profit EBITDA bef. Year Margin Margin extra 2010 2009 34.1% 36.4% 46.3% 11.9% 32.4% 24.1% 18.0% 27.1% 8.8% 22.0% 18.5% 2.5% -9.9% 13.8% 5.2%
Kulicke And Soffa Industries, Inc. 2010 American Railcar Industries, Inc. 2010 Cascade Corporation 2011
Inventory Analysis As of December 2010, the value of the company's inventory totalled $62.84 million. Since the cost of goods sold was $281.10 million for the year, the company had 82 days of inventory on hand (another way to look at this is
215
to say that the company turned over its inventory 4.5 times per year). In terms of inventory turnover, this is a significant improvement over December 2009, when the company's inventory was $74.91 million, equivalent to 193 days in inventory. Research and Development Research and Development Expenses at Harbin Electric in 2010 were $3.42 million, which is equivalent to 0.8% of sales. In 2009, Harbin Electric spent $2.09 million on R&D, which was 0.9% of sales. During each of the previous 3 years, the company has increased the amount of money it has spent on Research and Development (in 2007, Harbin Electric spent $1.06 million versus $3.42 million in 2010). Financial Position As of December 2010, the company's long term debt was $50.07 million and total liabilities (i.e., all monies owed) were $151.61 million. The long term debt to equity ratio of the company is 0.12. As of December 2010, the accounts receivable for the company were $87.75 million, which is equivalent to 75 days of sales. This is an improvement over the end of 2009, when Harbin Electric had 164 days of sales in accounts receivable. Financial Positions Company Harbin Electric LT Debt/ Days Days R&D/ Year Equity AR Inv. Sales 2010 0.12 0.31 0.89 0.17 75 94 55 59 82 0.8% 66 7.4% 76 0.0% 88 0.6%
Kulicke And Soffa Industries, Inc. 2010 American Railcar Industries, Inc. 2010 Cascade Corporation 2011
Copyright 2001-2011 The Winthrop Corporation Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved Important Legal Notice
THIS REPORT IS PROVIDED FOR GENERAL INFORMATION ONLY, IS NOT TO BE CONSIDERED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE AND SHOULD NOT BE RELIED UPON FOR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY IS MADE REGARDING THE ACCURACY, RELIABILITY OR TIMELINESS OF THE CONTENT. THE REPORTS ARE COMPUTER GENERATED AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO PROGRAMMATIC AND/OR CONTENT ERRORS. VISITORS SHOULD VERIFY INFORMATION WITH OTHER RELIABLE SOURCES. THIS REPORT IS PROVIDED AS IS, WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR NON-INFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT WILL THE WINTHROP CORPORATION, WRIGHT INVESTORS' SERVICE, INC. OR ANY OF THEIR DATA PROVIDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES, NO MATTER WHAT THE CAUSE. THE CONTENT OF THIS REPORT IS PROTECTED BY APPLICABLE COPYRIGHT LAWS. CONTENT MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED, DISTRIBUTED, MODIFIED OR FRAMED WITHOUT PRIOR WRITTEN PERMISSION.
216
SUMMARY ANALYSIS:
Per Share- U.S. Dollars
Price
Year
Value Ratios
Dividends
Market Price/ Price/ Price Earnings Book Dividend Last Ratio Ratio Yield 8.10 8.05 25.94 7.99 20.54 17.35 16.91 12.3 8.0 28.5 6.7 26.7 7.1 7.9 n/c 5.4 9.8 1.8 2.6 1.7 1.2
% Earned Growth
12 Month % Dividends Payout Per Ratio Share 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.0% 10,280.4% 10,280.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 68.1% 34.4% 26.5% 9.9% 23.8% n/a 68.1% 34.4% 26.5% 9.9%
(A): INCLUDES OR EXCLUDES EXTRAORDINARY CHARGE OR CREDIT - INCLUDES OR EXCLUDES EXTRAORDINARY CHARGE OR CREDIT, INCLS $.26 PRETAX CR & $.97 PRETAX CHG IN 2009 ($.04 PRETAX CHG DEC, $.16 PRETAX CR & $.38 PRETAX CHG SEP, $.55 PRETAX CHG JUN & $.10 PRETAX CR MAR), INCLS $.02 PRETAX CR & $.04 PRETAX CHG IN 2008 ($.04 PRETAX CHG DEC, $.01PRETAX CR SEP, NOM PRETAX CR JUN & $.01 PRETAX CR MAR), INCLS$.03 PRETAX CR IN DEC 2006 (B): YEAR END CHANGED FROM JUL IN 2004 (C): NAME CHANGED FROM TORCH EXECUTIVE SERVICES LTD (D): BASED ON FULLY DILUTED SHARES (E): A DEVELOPMENT STAGE COMPANY, A DEVELOPMENT STAGE COMPANY REFLECTS 1 MONTH OF DATA
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
217
SALES ANALYSIS:
After Tax Income before Extraordinary Charges and Credits Amount in thousands
Employees After Tax Sales Income Per Per Number Employee Employee 180 270 490 2,000 4,900 4,430 131,354 149,688 133,475 60,410 45,558 96,271 55,556 68,291 34,495 12,689 4,010 17,340
YearAmount to-year in Growth thousands n/c 70.9% 61.8% 84.7% 84.8% 91.0%
% of Sales
% of Sales
% of Sales
11,728 49.6% 20,089 49.7% 31,891 48.8% 70,702 58.5% 141,892 63.6% 281,102 65.9%
10,357 43.8% 21,554 53.3% 24,600 37.6% 38,899 32.2% 48,809 21.9% 109,030 25.6%
10,000 42.3% 18,439 45.6% 16,903 25.8% 25,379 21.0% 19,647 8.8%
76,815 18.0%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
218
PRICE ANALYSIS:
Quarter 2005 Jan - Mar Apr - Jun Jul - Sep Oct - Dec 2006 Jan - Mar Apr - Jun Jul - Sep Oct - Dec 2007 Jan - Mar Apr - Jun Jul - Sep Oct - Dec 2008 Jan - Mar Apr - Jun Jul - Sep Oct - Dec 2009 Jan - Mar Apr - Jun Jul - Sep Oct - Dec 2010 Jan - Mar Apr - Jun Jul - Sep Oct - Dec 2011 Jan - Mar Apr - Jun 7/8/2011
17.700 12.060 16.960 11.700 27.650 14.760 28.000 12.900 19.250 12.910 16.910 11.030 12.440 8.900 16.890 4.700 4.250 6.000
18.550 12.110 22.910 15.361 26.000 16.790 24.280 15.460 20.500 15.260 25.050 14.950 20.840 16.000 21.500 5.820
219
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
220
Dividends Per Share 12 Months % Dividends Change n/a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n/a n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c Quarterly Reported Dividends Q1 Mar. n/a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Q2 Jun. n/a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n/a Q3 Sep. n/a 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n/a Q4 Dec. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 n/a % Payout n/c 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% n/c
Quarterly Reported Earnings Q1 Mar. n/a n/a n/a 0.12 0.21 0.20 0.27 0.34 0.66 0.34 Q2 Jun. n/a n/a n/a 0.18 0.20 0.24 0.31 -0.21 0.82 n/a Q3 Sep. n/a n/a n/a 0.19 0.23 0.26 0.34 -0.07 0.57 n/a Q4 Dec. n/a n/a 0.12 0.17 0.37 0.21 0.27 0.71 0.41 n/a
INCLUDES OR EXCLUDES EXTRAORDINARY CHARGE OR CREDIT - INCLUDES OR EXCLUDES EXTRAORDINARY CHARGE OR CREDIT, INCLS $.26 PRETAX CR & $.97 PRETAX CHG IN 2009 ($.04 PRETAX CHG DEC, $.16 PRETAX CR & $.38 PRETAX CHG SEP, $.55 PRETAX CHG JUN & $.10 PRETAX CR MAR), INCLS $.02 PRETAX CR & $.04 PRETAX CHG IN 2008 ($.04 PRETAX CHG DEC, $.01PRETAX CR SEP, NOM PRETAX CR JUN & $.01 PRETAX CR MAR), INCLS$.03 PRETAX CR IN DEC 2006
(B): (C): (D): (E):
YEAR END CHANGED FROM JUL IN 2004 NAME CHANGED FROM TORCH EXECUTIVE SERVICES LTD BASED ON FULLY DILUTED SHARES A DEVELOPMENT STAGE COMPANY, A DEVELOPMENT STAGE COMPANY REFLECTS 1 MONTH OF DATA
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
221
Electric, Inc.
2009 2008 2007 2006
Figures are expressed as Percent of Total Assets. Total Assets are in millions of U.S. Dollars.
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Assets Total Assets Cash & Short Term Investments Cash Short Term Investments Receivables (Net) Inventories -Total Raw Materials Work in Process Finished Goods Progress Payments & Other Prepaid Expenses Other Current Assets Current Assets - Total Long Term Receivables Investment in Associated Companies Other Investments Property Plant and Equipment - Gross Accumulated Depreciation Property Plant and Equipment Net Other Assets Deferred Charges
2010
574.3 17.4%
531.0 18.2%
235.5 20.8%
132.6 34.3%
93.0 72.4%
15.3% 10.9% 1.5% 3.6% 6.2% -0.4% 2.8% 0.4% 46.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 32.2% 2.1% 30.1% 23.1% 0.1%
18.9% 14.1% 2.2% 5.4% 8.2% -1.7% 2.2% 0.0% 53.4% 0.0% 0.0%
13.6% 9.3% 1.1% 3.4% 4.8% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 45.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4%
17.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 55.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 19.1% 1.1% 18.0% 25.8% 1.7%
9.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 83.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.9% 9.9% 6.6% 3.0%
222
Tangible Other Assets Intangible Other Assets Total Assets Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Accounts Payable Short Term Debt & Current Portion of Long Term Debt Accrued Payroll Income Taxes Payable Dividends Payable Other Current Liabilities Current Liabilities - Total Long Term Debt Long Term Debt Excluding Capitalized Leases Capitalized Lease Obligations Provision for Risks and Charges Deferred Income Deferred Taxes Deferred Taxes - Credit Deferred Taxes - Debit Deferred Tax Liability in Untaxed Reserves Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Non-Equity Reserves Minority Interest
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
Preferred Stock Preferred Stock Issued for ESOP ESOP Guarantees Preferred Issued Common Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
224
Electric, Inc.
2007 2006
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Assets Total Assets Cash & Short Term Investments Cash Short Term Investments Receivables (Net) Inventories -Total Raw Materials Work in Process Finished Goods Progress Payments & Other Prepaid Expenses Other Current Assets Current Assets - Total Long Term Receivables Investment in Associated Companies Other Investments Property Plant and Equipment - Gross Accumulated Depreciation Property Plant and Equipment Net Other Assets Deferred Charges
2010
2009
2008
8.2% 3.5%
125.5% 97.1%
77.5% 7.4%
42.7% -32.4%
274.9% 898.0%
35.6%
232.0%
99.2%
112.3% 20,275.7%
-5.1%
166.3%
44.9% -100.0%
-5.4%
365.5%
0.0% 13.8% 94.6% 10.7% 45.1% 38.3% 66.0% 109.4% 64.7% 175.3% -78.5% 286.6% 101.1% 297.9% -3.1% -24.5% 152.8% 83.0% 158.8% 460.5% -19.7% 21.6% 76.5% 18.5% 1,722.6%
225
Tangible Other Assets Intangible Other Assets Total Assets Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Accounts Payable Short Term Debt & Current Portion of Long Term Debt Accrued Payroll Income Taxes Payable Dividends Payable Other Current Liabilities Current Liabilities - Total Long Term Debt Long Term Debt Excluding Capitalized Leases Capitalized Lease Obligations Provision for Risks and Charges Deferred Income Deferred Taxes Deferred Taxes - Credit Deferred Taxes - Debit Deferred Tax Liability in Untaxed Reserves Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Non-Equity Reserves Minority Interest
77.5% 398.3%
42.7% 153.8%
274.9% 252.0%
-0.3%
292.7%
149.8%
50.7%
-67.0% -16.0%
-28.8% 196.6%
-40.1% 26.7%
-86.6%
226
Preferred Stock Preferred Stock Issued for ESOP ESOP Guarantees Preferred Issued Common Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity 27.5% 8.2% 88.5% 125.5% 106.4% 77.5% 87.9% 42.7% 83.0% 274.9%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
227
Electric, Inc.
2008 2007 2006
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Assets Total Assets Cash & Short Term Investments Cash Short Term Investments Receivables (Net) Inventories -Total Raw Materials Work in Process Finished Goods Progress Payments & Other Prepaid Expenses Other Current Assets Current Assets - Total Long Term Receivables Investment in Associated Companies Other Investments Property Plant and Equipment - Gross Accumulated Depreciation Property Plant and Equipment Net Other Assets Deferred Charges
2010
2009
313.3 71.6
203.4 53.0
97.2 33.7
50.1 23.9
50.5 32.6 4.9 11.6 18.3 -2.2 6.7 0.5 161.9 0.0 0.0
34.7 20.3 3.2 7.5 11.4 -1.8 3.6 0.0 111.5 0.0 0.0
14.6 5.3 0.8 1.8 2.6 0.0 1.2 0.0 54.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
8.2 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.5 0.0 33.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 8.7 0.5 8.2 8.1 1.0
228
Tangible Other Assets Intangible Other Assets Total Assets Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity Accounts Payable Short Term Debt & Current Portion of Long Term Debt Accrued Payroll Income Taxes Payable Dividends Payable Other Current Liabilities Current Liabilities - Total Long Term Debt Long Term Debt Excluding Capitalized Leases Capitalized Lease Obligations Provision for Risks and Charges Deferred Income Deferred Taxes Deferred Taxes - Credit Deferred Taxes - Debit Deferred Tax Liability in Untaxed Reserves Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Non-Equity Reserves Minority Interest
97.2 2.2
50.1 0.5
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0
Preferred Stock Preferred Stock Issued for ESOP ESOP Guarantees Preferred Issued Common Equity Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
230
Electric, Inc.
2010 426.5 2009 223.2 2008 120.8 2007 65.4 2006 40.4
Figures are expressed as Percent of Net Sales or Revenues. Net Sales or Revenues are in millions of U.S. Dollars.
Fiscal Year Net Sales or Revenues Cost of Goods Sold Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization Gross Income Selling, General & Administrative Expenses Other Operating Expenses Operating Expenses - Total Operating Income Extraordinary Credit - Pretax Extraordinary Charge - Pretax Non-Operating Interest Income Reserves - Increase/Decrease Pretax Equity in Earnings Other Income/Expense - Net Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization (EBITDA) Earnings before Interest & Taxes(EBIT) Interest Expense on Debt Interest Capitalized Pretax Income Income Taxes Minority Interest Equity in Earnings After Tax Other Income/Expense Discontinued Operations Net Income before Extraordinary Items/Preferred Dividends
65.9% 63.6% 58.5% 48.8% 49.7% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 1.6% 1.6%
31.8% 34.3% 39.3% 49.6% 48.6% 9.9% 0.0% 9.2% 10.8% 13.3% 14.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
78.1% 75.0% 71.5% 63.7% 65.4% 21.9% 25.0% 28.5% 36.3% 34.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 5.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1.3% -1.6%
25.6% 21.9% 32.2% 37.6% 53.3% 23.3% 19.7% 30.0% 36.0% 51.7% 1.2% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 5.3% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0%
22.1% 13.9% 24.7% 25.8% 45.6% 3.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 3.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Extraordinary Items & Gain/Loss Sale of Assets Preferred Dividend Requirements Net Income after Preferred Dividends - available to Common
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
232
Electric, Inc.
2008 84.7% 2007 61.8% 58.7% 62.0% 65.0% 2006 70.9% 71.3% 86.6% 70.1%
Fiscal Year Net Sales or Revenues Cost of Goods Sold Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization Gross Income Selling, General & Administrative Expenses Other Operating Expenses Operating Expenses - Total Operating Income Extraordinary Credit - Pretax Extraordinary Charge - Pretax Non-Operating Interest Income Reserves - Increase/Decrease Pretax Equity in Earnings Other Income/Expense - Net Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization (EBITDA) Earnings before Interest & Taxes(EBIT) Interest Expense on Debt Interest Capitalized Pretax Income Income Taxes Minority Interest Equity in Earnings After Tax Other Income/Expense Discontinued Operations
2010 91.0% 98.1% 104.4% 77.1% 105.6% 100.0% 99.0% 67.1% -86.2%
2009 84.8%
57.8% 69.4%
93.1% 40.4%
-4.0% 170.2%
3.5% 72.3%
76.9%
-8.3%
84.4%
233
Net Income before Extraordinary Items/Preferred Dividends Extraordinary Items & Gain/Loss Sale of Assets Preferred Dividend Requirements Net Income after Preferred Dividends available to Common
291.0%
-22.6%
50.1%
-8.3%
84.4%
291.0%
-22.6%
50.1%
-8.3%
84.4%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
234
Electric, Inc.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 175.3 94.7 50.1 25.9 109.1 55.3 26.9 12.7 3.8 1.9 0.9 0.4
Fiscal Year Net Sales or Revenues Cost of Goods Sold Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization Gross Income Selling, General & Administrative Expenses Other Operating Expenses Operating Expenses - Total Operating Income Extraordinary Credit - Pretax Extraordinary Charge - Pretax Non-Operating Interest Income Reserves - Increase/Decrease Pretax Equity in Earnings Other Income/Expense - Net Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization (EBITDA) Earnings before Interest & Taxes(EBIT) Interest Expense on Debt Interest Capitalized Pretax Income Income Taxes Minority Interest Equity in Earnings After Tax Other Income/Expense Discontinued Operations Net Income before Extraordinary Items/Preferred Dividends Extraordinary Items & Gain/Loss Sale of Assets
62.4 37.5 22.2 12.7 18.1 0.0 9.9 0.0 5.8 0.0 3.2 0.0
131.0 67.1 33.6 16.4 44.3 27.6 16.4 0.9 2.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 9.5
48.6 28.8 44.8 26.9 6.8 0.0 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.0
235
38.1 21.2 15.0 5.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Preferred Dividend Requirements Net Income after Preferred Dividends - available to Common
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0 9.1
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
236
Electric, Inc.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Currency figures are in millions of U.S. Dollars. Year to year % changes pertain to reported Balance Sheet values.
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Total Capital Percent of Total Capital Short Term Debt Long Term Debt Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Minority Interest Preferred Stock Retained Earnings Common Equity Total Capital Year to Year Net Changes Short Term Debt Long Term Debt Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Minority Interest Preferred Stock Retained Earnings Common Equity Total Capital Year to Year Percent Changes Short Term Debt Long Term Debt
12/31/2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 472.8 354.9 208.3 117.7 73.6
-44.2% 1,037.7%
Other Liabilities Total Liabilities Minority Interest Preferred Stock Retained Earnings Common Equity Total Capital Total Liabilities & Common Equity Total Liabilities Net Change in Liabilities as % of Total Liabilities Common Equity Net Change in Common Equity as % of Common Equity Cash Flow Operating Activities Financing Activities Investing Activities
-28.8% 196.6%
-40.1% 26.7%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
238
Accounting Ratios: Harbin Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Receivables Turnover Receivables - Number of Days Inventory Turnover Inventory - Number of Days Gross Property, Plant & Equipment Turnover Net Property, Plant & Equipment Turnover Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization % of Gross Property, Plant & Equipment Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization Year to Year Change Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization Year to Year % Change
Electric, Inc.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 12/31/2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 4.9 80.4 4.1 89.4 2.3 2.5 2.2 108.1 2.9 124.6 1.4 1.4 3.8 83.9 5.8 63.3 1.2 1.3 2.8 90.5 20.2 18.1 2.6 2.7 4.5 79.0 20.9 17.5 4.0 4.4
5.2%
2.9%
2.7%
4.3%
6.6%
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
104.4%
79.1%
145.2%
62.0%
86.6%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
239
Electric, Inc.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Figures are expressed as the ratio of Net Sales. Net Sales are in millions of U.S. Dollars.
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Net Sales Cash & Cash Equivalents Short-Term Investments Accounts Receivable Inventories Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Total Long Term Receivables & Investments Long Term Receivables Investments in Associated Companies Other Investments Property, Plant & Equipment Gross Accumulated Depreciation Property Plant & Equipment Net Other Assets Total Assets
12/31/2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 426.5 23.4% 223.2 43.2% 120.8 40.5% 65.4 69.6% 40.4 166.6%
20.6% 14.7% 0.6% 63.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 2.8% 40.6% 31.1% 134.7%
36.0% 3.9% 0.0% 112.3% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 38.7% 2.2% 36.5% 52.3% 202.8%
22.0% 1.4% 0.0% 192.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.8% 2.0% 22.8% 15.1% 230.0%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
240
Fixed Charges Coverage: Harbin Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date EBIT/Total Interest Expense EBIT/Net Interest EBIT/(Total Interest Exp + Pfd Div) EBIT/Dividends on Common Shares EBIT/(Dividends on Common + Pfd) EBITDA/Total Interest Expense EBITDA/Net Interest EBITDA/(Total Interest Exp + Pfd Div) EBITDA/Dividends on Com Shares EBITDA/(Dividends on Com + Pfd)
Electric, Inc.
2009 2008 2007 2006
2010
12/31/2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 19.1 22.2 19.1 3.4 3.6 3.4 293.7 293.7 21.0 24.3 21.0 3.7 4.0 3.7 325.2 325.2 6.1 7.0 6.1 3.7 3.7 3.7 8.8 8.8 8.8 5.7 6.6 5.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 8.5 8.5 8.5
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
241
Leverage Analysis: Harbin Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Long Term Debt % of EBIT Long Term Debt % of EBITDA Long Term Debt % of Total Assets Long Term Debt % of Total Capital Long Term Debt % of Com Equity Total Debt % of EBIT Total Debt % of EBITDA Total Debt % of Total Assets Total Debt % of Total Capital Total Debt % of Total Capital & Short Term Debt Total Debt % of Common Equity Minority Interest % of EBIT Minority Interest % of EBITDA Minority Interest % of Total Assets Minority Interest % of Total Capital Minority Interest % of Com Equity Preferred Stock % of EBIT Preferred Stock % of EDITDA Preferred Stock % of Total Assets
Electric, Inc.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 12/31/2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 50.4% 45.9% 8.7% 10.6% 11.9% 82.2% 74.9% 14.2% 17.3% 16.2% 19.5% 2.9% 2.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 9.0% 0.8% 1.2% 1.3% 138.5% 125.0% 11.5% 17.2% 14.8% 18.5% 48.3% 43.6% 4.0% 6.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 92.7% 86.4% 14.3% 16.1% 19.2% 107.1% 99.8% 16.5% 18.6% 18.2% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 140.8% 134.6% 25.0% 28.1% 39.1% 140.8% 134.6% 25.0% 28.1% 28.1% 39.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 136.9% 132.6% 30.8% 38.8% 63.5% 136.9% 132.6% 30.8% 38.8% 38.8% 63.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
242
Preferred Stock % of Total Capital Preferred Stock % of Total Equity Common Equity % of Total Assets Common Equity % of Total Capital Total Capital % of Total Assets Capital Expenditure % of Sales Fixed Assets % of Common Equity Working Capital % of Total Capital Dividend Payout Funds From Operations % of Total Debt
0.0% 0.0% 73.1% 88.8% 82.3% 4.6% 41.2% 35.7% 0.0% 124.0%
0.0% 0.0% 62.0% 92.8% 66.8% 3.8% 47.5% 31.5% 0.8% 98.6%
0.0% 0.0% 74.2% 83.9% 88.4% 13.3% 54.4% 41.1% 0.0% 91.1%
0.0% 0.0% 63.8% 71.9% 88.8% 18.6% 28.2% 58.9% 0.0% 72.5%
0.0% 0.0% 48.4% 61.2% 79.2% 3.9% 20.5% 101.7% 0.0% 51.1%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
243
Liquidity Analysis: Harbin Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Total Current Assets % Net Sales Cash % of Current Assets Cash & Equivalents % of Current Assets Quick Ratio Receivables % of Current Assets Receivable Turnover number of days Inventories % of Current Assets Inventory Turnover - number of days Inventory to Cash & Equivalents - number of days Receivables % of Total Assets Current Ratio Total Debt % of Total Capital Funds from Operations % of Current Liabilities Funds from Operations % of Long Term Debt Funds from Operations % of Total Debt Funds from Operations % of Total Capital Cash Flow (in milllions of U.S. Dollars) Operating Activities
Electric, Inc.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 12/31/2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 63.0% 126.9% 88.1% 112.3% 192.1%
37.1% 1.9 32.6% 80.4 23.4% 89.4 571.8 15.3% 2.7 16.2% 101.3% 202.3% 124.0% 21.4%
34.0% 1.1 35.4% 108.1 26.4% 124.6 463.4 18.9% 1.7 14.8% 35.1% 1,367.4% 98.6% 17.0%
46.0% 3.9 30.1% 83.9 20.6% 63.3 802.1 13.6% 5.1 18.2% 170.6% 105.2% 91.1% 17.0%
62.0% 17.0 32.1% 90.5 3.5% 18.1 6,376.0 17.7% 18.1 28.1% 590.3% 72.5% 72.5% 20.4%
86.7% 27.5 11.5% 79.0 0.8% 17.5 41,545.6 9.6% 28.0 38.8% 527.4% 51.1% 51.1% 19.9%
93.3
62.5
42.3
9.1
16.9
244
22.8 111.5
71.2 89.1
39.2 81.1
0.7 36.0
47.1 4.5
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
245
Electric, Inc.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Figures are expressed as per unit of respective shares. Figures are in U.S. Dollars.
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Sales Operating Income Pre-tax Income Net Income (Continuing Operations) Net Income Before Extra Items Extraordinary Items Net Income After Extraordinary Items Net Income Available to Common Shares Fully Diluted Earnings Common Dividends Cash Earnings Book Value Retained Earnings Assets
12/31/2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 13.65 2.99 3.01 2.46 2.46 0.00 2.46 2.46 2.46 0.00 3.24 13.38 4.36 18.38 7.19 1.80 1.00 0.63 0.63 0.00 0.63 0.77 0.77 0.00 2.35 10.34 2.24 17.09 5.47 1.56 1.35 1.15 1.15 0.00 1.15 1.19 1.19 0.00 1.66 7.77 2.36 10.65 3.60 1.31 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.00 0.93 0.91 0.91 0.00 1.29 4.50 1.78 7.31 2.43 0.84 1.11 1.11 1.11 0.00 1.11 1.01 1.01 0.00 0.80 2.65 1.58 5.60
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
246
Electric, Inc.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year End Date Gross Income Margin Operating Income Margin Pretax Income Margin EBIT Margin Net Income Margin Return on Equity - Total Return on Invested Capital Return on Assets Asset Turnover Financial Leverage Interest Expense on Debt Effective Tax Rate Cash Flow % Sales Selling, General & Administrative Expenses % of Sales Research & Development Expense Operating Income Return On Total Capital
12/31/2010 12/31/2009 12/31/2008 12/31/2007 12/31/2006 31.8% 21.9% 22.1% 23.3% 18.0% 20.5% 17.5% 14.5% 0.7 19.5% 34.3% 25.0% 13.9% 19.7% 8.8% 7.8% 9.0% 7.4% 0.4 18.5% 39.3% 28.5% 24.7% 30.0% 21.0% 19.6% 17.8% 16.0% 0.5 22.2% 6,355,334 15.1% 29.3% 10.8% 49.6% 36.3% 25.8% 36.0% 25.8% 26.1% 22.2% 18.8% 0.5 39.1% 6,619,954 0.0% 36.7% 13.3% 48.6% 34.6% 45.6% 51.7% 45.6% 53.0% 40.8% 34.0% 0.4 63.5% 2,450,248 0.0% 36.2% 14.0%
0.8% 33.2%
0.9% 70.4%
1.0% 76.9%
1.6% 59.9%
3.7% 199.2%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
247
Electric, Inc.
CAA20 CAA20
510 528 337 348 1,858 3,437 364.1% 650.3% NAS 123 34 34.1%
Investment Acceptance Rating Total Market Value of Shares Outstanding - Three Year Average - Current Year Public Market Value (Excludes Closely Held) - Three Year Average - Current Year Trading Volume - Three Year Average - Current Year Turnover Rate - Three Year Average - Current Year Stock Exchange Listings Number of Institutional Investors Number of Shareholders Closely Held Shares as % of Total Shares Outstanding
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
248
Wright Quality Rating - Financial Strength: Harbin Wright Quality Rating Financial Strength Rating Total Shareholders' Equity (Millions of U.S. Dollars) Total Shareholders' Equity as % Total Capital Preferred Stock as % of Total Capital Long Term Debt as % of Total Capital Long Term Debt (Millions of U.S. Dollars) Lease Obligations (Millions of U.S. Dollars)
Electric, Inc.
C C
AA20 AA20
433 89.1% 0.0% 10.3% 50 0 50 20.4% 19.1 22.2 1.8 2.4
Long Term Debt including Leases (Millions of U.S. Dollars) Total Debt as % of Total Capital Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio: Pretax Income to Interest Expense & Preferred Dividends Fixed Charge Coverage Ratio: Pretax Income to Net Interest Income & Preferred Dividends Quick Ratio (Cash & Receivables / Current Liabilities) Current Ratio (Current Assets / Current Liabilities)
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
249
Wright Quality Rating - Profitability & Stability: Harbin Wright Quality Rating Profitability & Stability Rating
Electric, Inc.
CA CA
A20 A20
22.0% -4.0% 32.5% -4.0% 89.8% 99.0% 16.7% 17.6%
Profit Rate of Earnings on Equity Capital - Time-Weighted Normal - Basic Trend Cash Earnings Return on Equity - Time-Weighted Average - Basic Trend Cash Earnings Return on Equity - Stability Index Return On Assets (Time-Weighted Average) Pre-Tax Income as % of Total Assets (Time-Weighted Average) Operating Income as % of Total Assets (Time-Weighted Average) Operating Income as % of Total Capital (Adjusted Rate) Pre-Tax Income as % of Total Assets (Time-Weighted Average) Operating Income as % of Total Assets (Time-Weighted Average) Operating Income as % of Total Capital (Adjusted Rate)
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
250
Electric, Inc.
CAA CAA
Wright Quality Rating Growth Rating Normal Earnings Growth Cash Earnings Growth Cash Earnings Stability Index Earned Equity Growth Dividend Growth Operating Income Growth Assets Growth Sales/Revenues Growth
20 20
20.0% 25.0% 91.3% 22.0% 0.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Copyright 2000-2011 Distributed by Wright Investors' Service, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Except for quotations by established news media, no pages on this site may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted for commercial purposes, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without prior written permission. Information is believed reliable, but accuracy, completeness and opinions are not guaranteed.
251
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
China July 14, 2011
Closing Price (7/13/11): 12-Month Target Price: 52-Week Range: Market Cap (MM): Shares O/S (MM): Float (MM): Shares Short (MM): Avg. Vol. (000) Book Value/Share: Dividend/Yield: Risk Profile: Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Maxim Group FYE: December 2009A: GAAP 2010A: GAAP 2011E: GAAP 2012E: GAAP LT Earnings Growth Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Consensus-First Call FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Echo He, MD, PhD ehe@maximgrp.com $17.56 $24 $5.82 - $25.05 $551.4 31.4 16.8 9.8 1,851 $19.60 NA Medium Revenues ($M) 2011E 2012E $103.8A $122.1 $112.2 $134.7 $123.0 $140.4 $131.6 $150.4 $470.7 $547.6 Current Current EPS P/E $0.77 22.8 $2.46 7.2 $2.14 8.2 $2.67 6.6 10% - 15% GAAP Quarterly EPS Current 2011E $0.34A $0.48 $0.63 $0.68 Current 2012E $0.58 $0.66 $0.70 $0.74
Buy
13E-3 and preliminary proxy filed; One further step towards LBO; Reiterate Buy and $24 price target
Yesterday, HRBN filed schedule 13E-3 with the SEC together with a Preliminary Proxy Statement. We believe that this is one more step towards a successful LBO. In general, both the Special Committee and the board of HRBN believe the current merger and merger agreement are fair to HRBNs minority shareholders, and the merger enables the minority shareholders to realize their value of investment. HRBN likely has fulfilled all required documents for SEC review. Major documents filed together with 13E-3 are a Preliminary Proxy Statement for a special shareholder meeting, Opinions of Morgan Stanley and Lazard Frres regarding the fairness of the transaction, and Limited Guarantee that the buyer group, Chairman Mr. Yang and Abax Global, are liable to $30M termination fee payable to HRBN if they fail to complete the merger. Some previously filed documents were also attached, including a $400M Facility Agreement with China Development Bank, Equity Commitment by Abax Global, and a definitive Merger Agreement. The Preliminary Proxy disclosed more details in the LBO process: (1) Acting as the financial advisors to HRBN, both Morgan Stanley and Lazard Frres conducted their own due diligence in November 2010 and April 2011, respectively, to serve as a basis for fairness opinion. (2) HRBNs special committee engaged Ernst & Young to conduct a detailed accounting and tax due diligence, which was completed in early February 2011 and also served as the judgment basis to Morgan Stanley and Lazard Frres. (3) During the go-shop period from November 2010 to January 2011, Morgan Stanley contacted 73 parties, with 16 entered in non-disclosure agreements. (4) The company twice revised down its financial outlook, in April and June 2011, respectively, reducing 2011 revenue and EPS estimates from $578M and $3.72 to $473-494M and $2.80-$2.93, respectively, which are 3% and 34% above our current estimates. (5) On May 10, 2011, Mr. Yang agreed to pay Baring Private Equity Asia $500,000 for Baring to waive its right of providing 10% of the LBO financing. That said, we believe HRBN needs to solve its litigations before closing the transaction. There were eight and three putative stockholder class action complaints filed in Nevada and New York, respectively. After consolidation or voluntary dismissal, three remained to date. The company has filed motions to dismiss one and intends to defend itself in others. In our view, SEC is likely to approve the merger transaction, which will likely close by the year end. Our Buy rating and $24 price target is mainly based on a favorable outcome of HRBNs LBO. In our opinion the persistent gap, currently ~30% between the share price and the LBO offering price, creates buying opportunities.
$2.14 $2.67 Quarterly EPS 2011E 2012E $0.34A $0.58 $0.50 $0.66 $0.62 $0.70 $0.66 $0.74 $2.12 $2.78 (212) 895-3718
Maxim Group LLC 405 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10174 www.maximgrp.com
SEE PAGES 4-6 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS 252
Chinese Industrial Companies China Automotive CAAS A-Power APWR FushiCopperweld FSIN Lihua International LIWA Shengdatech SDTH Wonder Auto WATG ChemSpec CPC China Gerui Adv. Materia CHOP SORL Auto Parts SORL Average HK Listed China Motor Companies Harbin Power Equipment 1133-HK Shanghai Electric Group 2727-HK Dongfang Electric Group 1072-HK Chongqing Machinery & E2722-HK Shanghai Prime Machine 2345-HK Average
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
China Mainland Listed China Motor Companies Xiangtan Electric 600416-SH $ 1.90 Zhejiang Founder Motor 002196-SZ $ 2.71 BroadOcean 002249-SZ $ 3.50 Jiangte Electric Motor 002176-SZ $ 4.04 Shanghai Electric Group 601727-SH $ 1.03 Dongfang Electric Group 600875-SH $ 3.98 Average
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ -$
US/International Motor Companies Siemens SI $ 132.14 $ 114,794 ABB ABB $ 26.10 $ 59,769 Emerson Electric EMR $ 56.06 $ 42,223 Illinois Tool Works ITW $ 57.72 $ 29,003 Cummins CMI $ 105.71 $ 20,888 Magna International MGA $ 52.34 $ 5,902 Rockwell Automation ROK $ 83.59 $ 11,920 Lear Corporation LEA $ 53.28 $ 2,488 Regal Beloit RBC $ 67.61 $ 2,603 Smith AO AOS $ 41.81 $ 1,276 Franklin Electric FELE $ 47.00 $ 1,093 Average Source: Thomson One, Bloomberg and Maxim Group estimates.
$ 6.09 $ 1.25 $ 2.69 $ 3.08 $ 5.17 $ 4.34 $ 3.05 $ 4.42 n/a $ 2.87 $ 1.94
$ 11.32 $ 1.57 $ 3.27 $ 3.93 $ 8.08 $ 5.11 $ 4.58 $ 5.25 n/a $ 2.10 $ 2.50
$ 10.83 $ 1.93 $ 3.87 $ 4.59 $ 9.73 $ 5.60 $ 5.44 $ 6.00 n/a -$ 2.47 $ 2.89
21.7x 20.9x 20.8x 18.7x 20.4x 12.1x 27.4x 12.1x -14.6x 24.2x 19.3x
11.7x 16.6x 17.1x 14.7x 13.1x 10.2x 18.2x 10.1x -20.0x 18.8x 15.1x
12.2x 13.5x 14.5x 12.6x 10.9x 9.3x 15.4x 8.9x 17.0x 16.3x 13.0x
253
4.9 (2.3) 2.6 52.9% (0.1) 1.9% (0.2) 3.8% (0.3) 2.3 47.1% 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0% 2.3 0.0% 2.3 47.6% 2.2 6.4 6.4 0.36 0.36 0.1 2.4 48.6% 8.28
23.6 $ 387% (12.1) 11.6 350% 48.9% (0.3) 1.4% (1.3) 5.3% (1.6) 10.0 42.1% 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0% 10.0 0.0% 10.0 333% 42.3% 0.5 11.1 14.9 15.1
40.4 $ 71% (20.8) 19.7 70% 48.6% (1.5) 3.7% (4.2) 10.3% (5.7) 14.0 34.6% 0.0 (2.5) 4.4 18.4 0.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 84% 45.6% 1.0 19.5 16.6 18.3
19.8 20.1 19.3 17.0 76.3 19.3 18.1 19.3 20.4 77.2 86.8 60% 74% 18% -14% 27% -3% -10% 0% 20% 1% 12% 56% 19% 19% 18% 16% 18% 19% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 18.3 16.2 15.2 15.3 14.0 60.8 15.5 14.7 15.3 16.1 61.7 67.9 166% 78% 81% -18% 51% -4% (3.0%) 0% 15% 2% 10% 28% 15% 14% 14% 13% 14% 15% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 22.5 23.6 23.5 23.7 93.2 21.8 25.9 27.0 30.8 105.5 125.7 107% 39% 14% 3% 31% -3% 10% 15% 30% 13% 19% 0% 21% 22% 21% 22% 22% 21% 23% 22% 23% 22% 23% 45.0 44.6 48.9 49.9 188.5 46.3 51.3 58.7 62.4 218.7 258.9 13% 6% 11% 12% 11% 3% 15% 20% 25% 16% 18% 0% 0% 20% 43% 42% 45% 47% 44% 45% 46% 48% 47% 46% 47% 65.4 $ 120.8 $ 223.2 $ 105.5 $ 105.4 $ 109.4 $ 106.2 $ 426.5 $ 103.8 $ 112.2 $ 123.0 $ 131.6 $ 470.7 $ 547.6 62% 85% 85% 243% 175% 133% -1% 91% (1.6%) 6% 12% 24% 10% 16% (33.0) (73.3) (146.6) (69.7) (70.1) (75.8) (75.1) (290.8) (73.6) (80.4) (87.6) (94.1) (335.7) (391.9) 32.4 65% 49.6% (1.1) 1.6% (7.7) 11.7% (8.7) 23.7 36.3% (0.2) (6.6) (6.8) 16.9 0.0% 16.9 0.0% 16.9 (8%) 25.8% 7.2 13.2 17.1 18.6 47.5 46% 39.3% (1.2) 1.0% (11.9) 9.9% (13.1) 34.4 45% 28.5% 1.6 (6.1) (4.5) 29.9 (4.5) 15.1% 25.4 0.0% 25.4 50% 21.0% 9.5 40.0 20.2 21.3 76.6 61% 34.3% (2.1) 0.9% (18.7) 8.4% (20.8) 55.8 62% 25.0% 5.5 (12.3) (24.9) 30.9 (7.8) 25.2% 23.1 (3.5) 11.3% 19.6 (23%) 8.8% (0.1) 16.3 25.6 25.7 35.7 227% 33.9% (0.6) 0.6% (7.4) 7.0% (8.0) 27.7 246% 26.3% 1.1 (1.6) (0.8) 27.0 (4.1) 15.1% 22.9 (2.4) 8.7% 20.6 137% 19.5% 0.1 20.6 31.1 31.4 0.66 $ 0.66 $ 68% 3.3 0.3 31.3 6.84 35.3 175% 33.5% (0.4) 0.3% (6.9) 6.5% (7.2) 28.1 219% 26.6% 1.3 (1.0) 1.4 29.5 (3.8) 12.9% 25.7 (0.0) 0.0% 25.7 NM 24.4% 1.3 27.0 31.1 31.3 0.83 $ 0.82 $ NM 2.8 0.3 31.1 6.84 33.6 100% 30.7% (1.7) 1.5% (10.1) 9.2% (11.7) 21.9 68% 20.0% 0.7 (1.1) (0.7) 21.2 (3.3) 15.6% 17.9 (0.0) 0.1% 17.9 NM 16.3% 5.6 23.5 31.1 31.3 31.1 -14% 29.2% (0.8) 0.8% (14.6) 13.8% (15.4) 15.6 (39.7%) 14.7% 2.3 (0.8) 0.9 16.6 (3.8) 22.7% 12.8 (0.1) 0.4% 12.7 -31% 12.0% 6.7 19.4 31.1 31.3 135.7 77% 31.8% (3.4) 0.8% (39.0) 9.1% (42.4) 93.3 67% 21.9% 5.5 (4.6) 0.8 94.2 (14.9) 15.8% 79.2 (2.4) 2.6% 76.8 291% 18.0% 13.7 90.5 31.1 31.3 30.2 (15%) 29.1% (3.9) 3.7% (10.1) 9.7% (14.0) 16.3 (41%) 15.7% 1.1 (1.9) (1.2) 15.0 (4.2) 27.9% 10.8 (0.0) 0.1% 10.8 (47.4%) 10.4% 2.4 13.3 31.3 31.4 31.9 -10% 28.4% (1.3) 1.2% (10.3) 9.2% (11.7) 20.2 (28%) 18.0% 1.2 (1.9) (1.2) 19.1 (3.8) 20.0% 15.2 0.0% 15.2 (40.6%) 13.6% 15.2 31.3 31.4 35.4 5% 28.8% (1.2) 1.0% (9.0) 7.3% (10.2) 25.2 15% 20.5% 1.3 (1.9) (1.0) 24.1 (4.3) 18.0% 19.8 0.0% 19.8 11% 16.1% 19.8 31.4 31.5 0.63 $ 0.63 $ 10% 2.9 0.1 28.2 6.51 37.5 21% 28.5% (1.3) 1.0% (9.5) 7.2% (10.8) 26.7 71% 20.3% 1.4 (1.9) (0.9) 25.8 (4.4) 17.0% 21.4 0.0% 21.4 69% 16.3% 21.4 31.4 31.6 135.0 -1% 28.7% (7.8) 1.7% (38.9) 8.3% (46.6) 88.4 -5% 18.8% 5.1 (7.7) (4.4) 84.0 (16.7) 19.9% 67.3 (0.0) 0.0% 67.3 -12% 14.3% 67.3 31.3 31.5 155.7 15% 28.4% (4.4) 0.8% (41.3) 7.5% (45.7) 109.9 24% 20.1% 5.5 (7.7) (4.0) 106.0 (21.2) 20.0% 84.8 0.0% 84.8 26% 15.5% 84.8 31.6 31.7 2.68 2.67 25% 14.7 1.3 125.9 23.0% 6.36
60.3 22% 27% 40.2 19% 18% 71.4 157% 23% 32% $ 44.5
$ $
1.11 $ 0.99 $ 1.01 $ 0.91 $ 53% (10%) 2.2 6.2 0.9 1.6 17.1 42.3% 7.80 31.4 48.1% 7.30
1.25 $ 0.77 $ 1.19 $ 0.77 $ 31% (35.7%) 7.7 17.0 1.8 1.2 43.8 36.3% 6.83 74.1 33.2% 6.84
0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.47 $ 0.35 $ 0.49 $ 0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.46 $ 0.34 $ 0.48 $ NM -25% 221% (47.4%) (40.8%) 3.1 2.3 11.5 2.9 2.9 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 25.2 6.84 18.2 6.60 105.8 24.8% 6.76 19.3 6.57 23.2 6.54
0.68 $ 2.15 $ 0.68 $ 2.14 $ 54% -13% 2.9 11.5 0.1 0.4 29.7 6.48 100.4 21.3% 6.48
254
Source: Investars.com
As of:
% of Coverage Universe
7/14/2011
% of Ratings that Firm received Banking fees 24.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Performance* Buy Hold Sell Expected total return of 15% or more over next 12 months Expected total return of plus or minus 14% over next 12 months Expected total negative return of at least 15% over next 12 months
* Relative to Nasdaq Composite. An Under Review (UR) rating represents a stock that the Firm has temporarily placed under review due to a material change.
Maxim Group makes a market in Harbin Electric, Inc. Maxim Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Harbin Electric, Inc. in the next 3 months.
I, Echo He, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firms total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. Valuation Methods: One or more of the following valuation methods are used by Maxim Group analysts in making a ratings or price projection: Analysis of companies P/E ratio, price/book ratio, earnings expectations or sales growth as they relate within an industry group or to the broader market, enterprise value/sales, Individual sector analysis, sum of the parts analysis and discounted cash flow.
255
RISK RATINGS
Risk ratings take into account both fundamental criteria and price volatility. Speculative Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to early-stage companies with minimal to no revenues, lack of earnings, balance sheet concerns, and/or a short operating history. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be significantly above the industry. Price Volatility: Because of the inherent fundamental criteria of the companies falling within this risk category, the price volatility is expected to be significant with the possibility that the investment could eventually be worthless. Speculative stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. High Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies having below-average revenue and earnings visibility, negative cash flow, and low market cap or public float. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be above the industry. Price volatility: The price volatility of companies falling within this category is expected to be above the industry. High-risk stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. Medium Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to approximate the industry average. Low Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have above-average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to be below the industry.
256
DISCLAIMERS
Some companies that Maxim Group LLC follows are emerging growth companies whose securities typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Maxim Group LLC research reports may not be suitable for some investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance. This communication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities mentioned herein. This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Maxim Group, LLC (Maxim). Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Maxim to be reliable, but Maxim makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. Maxim accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Maxim. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Maxim may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and Maxim is under no obligation to ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgment at its original date of publication by Maxim and are subject to change without notice. The price, value of and income from any of the securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. Securities recommended, offered or sold by Maxim: (1) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Company; (2) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution; and (2) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of principal invested. Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances; you may be required to pay more money to support these losses.
257
Prepared by the Company and Market Intelligence Unit at Datamonitor e:cpqueries@datamonitor.com OUR MAIN OFFICES: Datamonitor Americas 245 Fifth Avenue 4th Floor New York, NY 10016 USA t: +1 212 686 7400 e: usinfo@datamonitor.com Datamonitor Europe 119 Farringdon Road London EC1R 3DA t: +44 207 551 9000 e: euroinfo@datamonitor.com Datamonitor Asia Pacific Level 46, 2 Park Street Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia t: +61 2 8705 6900 e: apinfo@datamonitor.com Datamonitor India, Middle East and Asia 8th Floor, Vega Block The 'V' Park, Plot No.17, Madhapur 500-081 Andhra Pradesh, India t: +91 406 672 9500 e: ininfo@datamonitor.com
Company Report
Harbin Electric, Inc.
NASDAQ (HRBN) July 5, 2011
Datamonitor. All Rights Reserved. This publication is available on a single user license only. A Single-User License allows clients to place purchased report on one (1) computer system and NOT make use of the report on a corporate computer network. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, Datamonitor Ltd. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that Datamonitor delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such Datamonitor can accept no liability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.
258
Company Snapshot
Company Snapshot
Reference Code : 732345C1-017F-413B-A6A3-C3DF193F55EB Harbin Electric, Inc. 9 Ha Ping Xi Lu Ha Ping Lu Ji Zhong Qu Harbin Kai Fa Qu Harbin 150060 China Publication Date: July 2011 Phone: 86 451 8611 6757 Website: www.harbinelectric.com Industry: Industrial Goods and Machinery
Overview
Harbin Electric is involved in manufacturing a range of electric motors. Its product line includes linear motors (LMs), automobile specialty micro-motors for automobile interior applications, and industrial rotary motors for use in agricultural equipment and medical devices. The company primarily operates in China and the US. It is headquartered in Harbin, China, and employs around 4,430 people. The company recorded revenues of $426.5 million in the fiscal year ended December 2010, an increase of 91% over 2009. The company's operating profit was $93.3 million in fiscal 2010, an increase of 67.1% over 2009. Its net profit was $76.8 million in fiscal 2010, as compared to the net profit of $19.6 million in 2009.
Key Employees
Employee Name Lanxiang Gao Tianfu Yang Job Title Director, and Chief Operating Officer, Shanghai Tech-Full Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Executive Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations; and Corporate Secretary Chief Technology Officer Board Executive Board Executive Board
Christy Y Shue
Senior Management
Kanenori Okawa
Senior Management
Page 2 www.datamonitor.com
259
Company Snapshot
11 Oct 2010
19 Oct 2009
05 Aug 2009
15 Jul 2008
26 Jun 2008
Recent Developments
Date Nov 23, 2010 Headline Harbin Electric enters into term loan facility agreement with CDB Category Corporate loans/ other capital raising
Page 3 www.datamonitor.com
260
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Company Snapshot __________________________________________________________________ 2 Table of Contents ____________________________________________________________________ 4 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Overview and Key Facts ________________________________________ 7 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Overview ______________________________________________________ 7 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Key Facts _____________________________________________________ 7 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Key Employees ________________________________________________ 8 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Key Employee Biographies ______________________________________ 9 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Major Products and Services ___________________________________ 13 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Company History _____________________________________________ 14 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Locations and Subsidiaries _____________________________________ 15 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Key Competitors ______________________________________________ 16 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Company Analysis ________________________________________________ 17 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Business Description __________________________________________ 17 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Corporate Financial Deals Activity ___________________________________ 18 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Financial Deals Overview _______________________________________ 18 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Targets and Partners __________________________________________ 20 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Top Deals 2007 -YTD*2011 ______________________________________ 21 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Advisors_____________________________________________________ 22 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Top Legal Advisors _____________________________________________ 22 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Top Financial Advisors __________________________________________ 22 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Mergers and Acquisitions ______________________________________ 23 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Capital Raising _______________________________________________ 24 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Partnership __________________________________________________ 25 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Private Equity and Ownership ___________________________________ 26 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Recent Developments _____________________________________________ 27 Harbin Electric, Inc.: News and Events Summary _____________________________________ 27 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Financial Deals _______________________________________________ 27 Appendix __________________________________________________________________________ 28 Contact Us ____________________________________________________________________ 28 Methodology ___________________________________________________________________ 28 About Datamonitor ______________________________________________________________ 29
Page 4 www.datamonitor.com
261
Table of Contents
List of Tables
Table 1: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Key Facts ______________________________________________________________ 7 Table 2: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Key Employees _________________________________________________________ 8 Table 3: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Locations and Subsidiaries ______________________________________________ 15 Table 4: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Key Competitors _______________________________________________________ 16 Table 5: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Deal Activity by Deal Type - Volume (TTM) _________________________________ 18 Table 6: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Deal Activity by Deal Type - Volume (2007 - YTD*2011) _______________________ 19 Table 7: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Average Deal Size - Value (US$m) ____________________________________ 19 Table 8: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Targets and Partners ___________________________________________________ 20 Table 9: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Top Deals 2007 -YTD*2011 _______________________________________________ 21 Table 10: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Legal Advisor Ranking by Value (US$m) __________________________________ 22 Table 11: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Financial Advisor Ranking by Value (US$m) _______________________________ 22 Table 12: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) ___________________________ 23 Table 13: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Activity by Geography (2007 - YTD*2011) _____________________________ 23 Table 14: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Capital Raising Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) __________________ 24 Table 15: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Capital Raising by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) ____________________________ 24 Table 16: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Partnership Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) _____________________ 25 Table 17: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Partnership Trend by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) __________________________ 25 Table 18: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Private Equity and Ownership Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) ______ 26 Table 19: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Private Equity and Ownership Volume by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) _________ 26 Table 20: Harbin Electric, Inc.: News and Events Summary _____________________________________________ 27 Table 21: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Financial Deals _______________________________________________________ 27
Page 5 www.datamonitor.com
262
Table of Contents
List of Figures
Figure 1: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Deal Activity by Deal Type - Volume (TTM) _________________________________ 18 Figure 2: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Deal Activity by Deal Type - Volume (2007 - YTD*2011) ______________________ 19 Figure 3: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Average Deal Size - Value (US$m) ___________________________________ 19 Figure 4: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) ___________________________ 23 Figure 5: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Activity by Geography (2007 - YTD*2011) _____________________________ 23 Figure 6: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Capital Raising Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) __________________ 24 Figure 7: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Capital Raising by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) ____________________________ 24 Figure 8: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Partnership Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) _____________________ 25 Figure 9: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Partnership Trend by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) __________________________ 25 Figure 10: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Private Equity and Ownership Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) _____ 26 Figure 11: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Private Equity and Ownership Volume by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) ________ 26
Page 6 www.datamonitor.com
263
Table of Contents
Table 1: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Key Facts Corporate Address: 9 Ha Ping Xi Lu Ha Ping Lu Ji Zhong Qu Harbin Kai Fa Qu Harbin 150060 Country: Phone: Web Address: Turnover (US$m): Employees: Financial Year End: Industry: Primary Stock Exchange (Ticker):
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
China 86 451 8611 6757 www.harbinelectric.com 427 4,430 December Industrial Goods and Machinery NASDAQ (HRBN)
DATAMONITOR
Page 7 www.datamonitor.com
264
Table of Contents
Tianfu Yang
Executive Board
49
2005
Christy Y Shue
Senior Management
Kanenori Okawa
Senior Management
2007
Shaotang Chen
Senior Management
2007
Senior Management Senior Management Senior Management Non Executive Board Non Executive Board Non Executive Board Non Executive Board 41 67 2005 2005 2009
Independent Director
75
2005
David Gatton
Independent Director
57
2005
Yunyue Ye
SOURCE:DATAMONITOR
Independent Director
59
2006
DATAMONITOR
Page 8 www.datamonitor.com
265
Table of Contents
Tianfu Yang Mr. Yang has been the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Harbin Electric since 2005. From 2003, he has been the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Harbin Tech Full Electric. From 2000, Mr. Yang has been the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Harbin Tech Full Industry. From 1994 to 2000, he was the President at Harbin Tianheng Wood Industry Manufacture. From 1991 to 1994, Mr. Yang was the President at Hong Kong Lianfa Real Estate Company. From 1988 to 1991, he was the President at Hong Kong Property Management Development. From 1986 to 1988, he was the President at Helongjiang Cultural Development Company and Guangzhou Subsidiary Company. Mr. Yang is also the National People's Representative at City of Harbin. He graduated from Zhejiang University with a Masters degree in Electric Motor Automation and Control. Board: Executive Board Job Title: Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Salary (US$): 26,470 Since: 2005 Age: 49
Christy Y Shue Ms. Shue is an Executive Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations; and Corporate Secretary at Harbin Electric. Prior to joining the company, she was the Vice President and a Senior Investor Relations Consultant at Christensen. Prior to joining Christensen, Ms. Shue was Manager, Investor Relations at International Paper. She holds a PhD in Chemistry from Purdue University and an MBA in Finance business from the Stern School of Business, New York University. She earned her Bachelor of Science degree from Sichuan University, China. Board: Senior Management Job Title: Executive Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations; and Corporate Secretary Salary (US$): 147,100
Company Report, July 2011 Product Code: 732345C1-017F-413B-A6A3-C3DF193F55EB Page 9 www.datamonitor.com
266
Table of Contents
Kanenori Okawa Mr. Okawa has been the Chief Technology Officer at Harbin Electric since 2007. From 1997 to 2007, he was Chief Technology Advisor at Nittoku Engineering. From 1973 to 1997, Mr. Okawa worked at Industrial Far East and held various positions including serving as the President from 1978 to 1997. He began his career with Ikegami Tuusinki after he graduated in 1971 with a BS in Electrical Engineering. Board: Senior Management Job Title: Chief Technology Officer Since: 2007
Shaotang Chen Dr. Chen has been a Director, Research and Development, Advanced Automation Group, a subsidiary of Harbin Electric, since 2007. From 2000 to 2007, he has been the Staff Research Engineer at Delphi Research Labs. From 2001 to 2003, Dr. Chen was Delphi Research Labs Chief Scientist at Delphi Energenix Center. From 1999 to 2000, he was Senior Research Engineer for Mechatronics Group at Delphi Research Labs. From 1995 to 1999, Dr. Chen was Senior Research Engineer in the Electrical and Electronics Department at General Motors NAO Research and Development Center. He graduated in 1995 from University of Wisconsin-Madison with a PhD in Electrical Engineering. Board: Senior Management Job Title: Director, Research and Development, Advanced Automation Group Since: 2007
Suofei Xu Mr. Xu is the Vice President, Shanghai Tech-Full, a subsidiary of the company. From 2003 to 2008, he was the Vice President at Harbin Tech Full Electric. From 2003 to 2008, Mr. Xu was the Vice President at Harbin Tech Full Industry. From 2001 to 2003, he was an Investment Manager at Shenzhen Capital Group. From 1997 to 2001, he worked at Guangfa Securities as a Project Manager. From 1991 to 1997, Mr. Xu worked as the Section Chief for system allocation reform at Harbin Economic System Reform Committee. He graduated in 1988 from Fudan University with a BA in Law. Board: Senior Management Job Title: Vice President, Shanghai Tech-Full
Tianli Yang Mr. Yang has been the Vice President at Harbin Electric since 2005. Since 2003, he was the Vice President at Harbin Tech Full Electric. Since 2000, Mr.Yang has been the Vice President at Harbin Tech Full Industry. From 1985 to 2000, he was employed in the China State Construction Engineering Corporation in various positions, including Chief Administration Officer. Mr. Yang graduated from Helongjiang University in 1985 with a BA in Chinese Language and Literature.
Company Report, July 2011 Product Code: 732345C1-017F-413B-A6A3-C3DF193F55EB Page 10 www.datamonitor.com
267
Table of Contents
Board: Senior Management Job Title: Vice President Salary (US$): 15,882 Since: 2005
Zedong Xu Mr. Xu has been the Chief Financial Officer at Harbin Electric since 2005. From 2003 until present, he has been the Chief Financial Officer at Harbin Tech Full Electric. Since 2000, Mr. Xu has been the Chief Financial Officer at Harbin Tech Full Industry. From 1998 to 2000, he was employed as the Chief Financial Officer at Harbin WanDa Electrical Home Appliances. From 1996 to 1998, he was a Financial Manager at Harbin High Technology Torch Daya Real Estate. Mr. Xu graduated in 1992 from Harbin Electrical Engineering College with a BA in Project Management. Board: Senior Management Job Title: Chief Financial Officer Salary (US$): 15,882 Since: 2005 Age: 41
Boyd Plowman Mr. Plowman has been an Independent Director at Harbin Electric since 2009. He is the retired Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Fleetwood Enterprises, Inc. where he was employed from 1969 to 1987 and from 1997 to 2008. During his career with Fleetwood, Mr. Plowman held numerous leadership positions including Controller, Treasurer, and Financial Vice President. During his second stint with Fleetwood, he served as an Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer until his retirement in 2008. He also served as the President and Chief Executive Officer at Lee & Associates. Prior to that, Mr. Plowman served as a Director and Chairman of the Audit Committee at Corporate Insurance and Reinsurance Company Limited (CIRCL), a Bermuda-based company reinsuring risks for captive insurance companies. He holds a bachelor's degree from Utah State University and was a certified public accountant. Board: Non Executive Board Job Title: Independent Director Since: 2009 Age: 67
Ching Chuen Chan Mr. Chan has been an Independent Director at Harbin Electric since 2005. He is an Honorary Professor at Hong Kong University's Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering. Mr. Chan is a Fellow at the Royal Academy of Engineering, UK, the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the Ukraine Academy of Engineering
Company Report, July 2011 Product Code: 732345C1-017F-413B-A6A3-C3DF193F55EB Page 11 www.datamonitor.com
268
Table of Contents
Sciences and a Fellow and Vice President at Hong Kong Academy of Engineering Sciences. He graduated from Tsing Hua University in 1959 with a Master of Science degree in Electrical Engineering and obtained his PhD in 1982 from University of Hong Kong. Board: Non Executive Board Job Title: Independent Director Since: 2005 Age: 75
David Gatton Mr. Gatton has been an Independent Director at Harbin Electric since 2005. Since 1985, he has served as the Chairman and President of Development Initiatives. Mr. Gatton advises cities, organizations, and companies on business development strategies, public and private partnerships and marketing initiatives. He holds a BA from Cornell College and a Master's degree from Harvard University. Board: Non Executive Board Job Title: Independent Director Since: 2005 Age: 57
Yunyue Ye Mr. Ye has been an Independent Director at Harbin Electric since 2006. He is currently a Professor in Electrical Engineering at Zhejiang University, where he has taught for the past seven years. Mr. Ye also currently serves as a Director at Aerospace Electric and Electrical Motor Institute of Zhejiang University and a Director at Linear Motor Institute of the Chinese Electro-technical Society. He was also Council Member at China Electro-technical Society. Mr. Ye graduated from Zhejiang University in 1978. Board: Non Executive Board Job Title: Independent Director Since: 2006 Age: 59
Page 12 www.datamonitor.com
269
Table of Contents
Page 13 www.datamonitor.com
270
Table of Contents
Page 14 www.datamonitor.com
271
Table of Contents
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
Page 15 www.datamonitor.com
272
Table of Contents
Page 16 www.datamonitor.com
273
Page 17 www.datamonitor.com
274
Deal Volume 1
DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
Page 18 www.datamonitor.com
275
Figure 2: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Deal Activity by Deal Type - Volume (2007 - YTD*2011)
Figure 3: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Average Deal Size - Value (US$m)
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
Table 6: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Deal Activity by Deal Type - Volume (2007 - YTD*2011) Deal Type ACQ CR CV DIV Pship PE Total 2007 1 1 2 2008 1 2 3 2009 1 1 2 2010 1 1 2011 -
Table 7: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Average Deal Size Value (US$m) Year 2007 Deal Volume 1 1 1 Average Deal Size (US$m) 11 54 DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
*ACQ = Acquisition; CR = Capital Raising; CV = Corporate Venturing; DIV = Divestment; Pship = Partnership; PE =Private Equity & Ownership
Page 19 www.datamonitor.com
276
Deal Headline
Deal Type
Deal Date
Acquisition
Harbin Electric acquires Weihai Hengda Electric Acquisition Motor Harbin Electric acquires Harbin Taifu Auto Electric Harbin forms joint venture with Shelton Technology LLC Acquisition
54
11
Partnership
DATAMONITOR
Page 20 www.datamonitor.com
277
Deal Headline Tianfu Yang and Abax Global Capital to acquire remaining 59.4% stake in Harbin Electric
Deal Date
Deal Status
Deal Type
11 Oct 2010
Announced
Private Equity
446
19 Oct 2009
Completed
Acquisition
Harbin Electric raises $100 million through public offering Harbin Electric acquires Weihai Hengda Electric Motor Harbin Electric completes $49.45 million private placement Harbin Electric completes $49.5 million private placment Harbin Electric acquires Harbin Taifu Auto Electric Harbin forms joint venture with Shelton Technology LLC
05 Aug 2009
Completed
IPO
100
15 Jul 2008
Completed
Acquisition
54
26 Jun 2008
Completed
49
26 Jun 2008
Completed
50
12 Jul 2007
Completed
Acquisition
11
13 Apr 2007
Announced
Partnership
SOURCE:DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
Page 21 www.datamonitor.com
278
Table 10: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Legal Advisor Ranking by Value (US$m) Company Name Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP Loeb & Loeb LLP Reed Smith LLP
SOURCE:DATAMONITOR
Deal Volume 1 1 1
Table 11: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Financial Advisor Ranking by Value (US$m) Company Name Lazard Freres & Co., LLC Morgan Stanley & Co., Incorporated ROTH Capital Partners, LLC Houlihan Lokey, Inc. Houlihan Lokey Howard & Zukin Financial Advisors, Inc.
SOURCE:DATAMONITOR
Deal Volume 1 1 1 1 1
Page 22 www.datamonitor.com
279
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
Table 12: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
Table 13: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Activity by Geography (2007 - YTD*2011) Geography Asia-Pacific Europe Middle East and Africa North America South and Central America
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
Deal Volume 1 1 1 -
Page 23 www.datamonitor.com
280
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
Table 14: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Capital Raising Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
Table 15: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Capital Raising by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) Deal Type Private Placement Public Offering
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
Deal Volume 2 1 -
Deal Volume 2 1
DATAMONITOR
Page 24 www.datamonitor.com
281
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
Table 16: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Partnership Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) Deal Value (US$m) DATAMONITOR
Table 17: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Partnership Trend by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) Deal Type Joint Venture
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
Deal Volume 1 -
Deal Volume 1
DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
Page 25 www.datamonitor.com
282
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
Table 18: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Private Equity and Ownership Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
Table 19: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Private Equity and Ownership Volume by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) Deal Type Private Equity
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
Deal Volume 1 -
Deal Volume 1
DATAMONITOR
Page 26 www.datamonitor.com
283
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
*YTD The period beginning January 1st of the current year up until today's date.
Page 27 www.datamonitor.com
284
Appendix
Appendix
Contact Us
We hope that the data and analysis in this brief will help you make informed and imaginative business decisions. If you have further requirements feedback please contact us at: cpqueries@datamonitor.com For further information on Datamonitor and our range of business information services please visit www.datamonitor.com
Methodology
Datamonitor company reports are prepared under an established and tested methodology which ensures proper checks and controls to capture and validate the quality and accuracy of data. The information is primarily sourced through: Company Annual Reports Company Analyst Relations Company websites SEC filings (10-K, 20-F, 10-Q etc) Media releases Investors presentations Datamonitor proprietary databases
Page 28 www.datamonitor.com
285
Appendix
About Datamonitor
The Datamonitor Group is an independent, premium business information and market analysis company that assists clients with operational and strategic decision-making. As a world-leading provider of premium global business information, Datamonitor delivers independent data, analysis and opinion across the Automotive, Consumer Packaged Goods, Energy & Sustainability, Financial Services, Logistics & Express, Pharmaceutical & Healthcare, Retail, Sourcing, Technology and Telecoms industries. We combine our industry knowledge and experience to assist over 6000 of the worlds leading companies in making better strategic and operational decisions Delivered online via our user-friendly web platforms, our market intelligence products and services ensure that you will achieve your desired commercial goals by giving you the insight you need to best respond to your competitive environment. The Datamonitor Groups research and analysis products are compiled by an extensive global network of researchers, in-house analysts and industry specialists. We collect our own data through an extensive global network using audited methodologies. We monitor more than 75,000 business including company websites, key business publications and stock market sites round-the-clock to provide you with powerful business insights and real time updates. This is further supported and substantiated by our global primary research team engaged in producing original analysis covering key verticals. The Datamonitor Group's consulting team offers a customized research and analysis service, addressing specialized research requirements of clients. Datamonitor is headquartered in London, and has 20 regional offices in Manchester, Hull, Paris, Hyderabad, Dubai, Durban, Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Seoul, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Beijing, Taipei, New York, Boston, Chicago, Scranton, Canandaigua and Silicon Valley.
Page 29 www.datamonitor.com
286
Company Profile
Publication Date: 5 Jul 2011
www.datamonitor.com
Europe, Middle East & Africa 119 Farringdon Road London EC1R 3DA United Kingdom t: +44 20 7551 9000 f: +44 20 7551 9090 e: euroinfo@datamonitor.com Americas 245 5th Avenue 4th Floor New York, NY 10016 USA t: +1 212 686 7400 f: +1 212 686 2626 e: usinfo@datamonitor.com Asia Pacific Level 46 2 Park Street Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia t: +61 2 8705 6900 f: +61 2 8088 7405 e: apinfo@datamonitor.com
287
ABOUT DATAMONITOR
Datamonitor is a leading business information company specializing in industry analysis. Through its proprietary databases and wealth of expertise, Datamonitor provides clients with unbiased expert analysis and in depth forecasts for six industry sectors: Healthcare, Technology, Automotive, Energy, Consumer Markets, and Financial Services. The company also advises clients on the impact that new technology and eCommerce will have on their businesses. Datamonitor maintains its headquarters in London, and regional offices in New York, Frankfurt, and Hong Kong. The company serves the world's largest 5000 companies. Datamonitor's premium reports are based on primary research with industry panels and consumers. We gather information on market segmentation, market growth and pricing, competitors and products. Our experts then interpret this data to produce detailed forecasts and actionable recommendations, helping you create new business opportunities and ideas. Our series of company, industry and country profiles complements our premium products, providing top-level information on 10,000 companies, 2,500 industries and 50 countries. While they do not contain the highly detailed breakdowns found in premium reports, profiles give you the most important qualitative and quantitative summary information you need - including predictions and forecasts.
All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, Datamonitor plc. The facts of this profile are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that Datamonitor delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such Datamonitor can accept no liability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.
Page 2
288
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Company Overview..............................................................................................4 Key Facts...............................................................................................................4 Business Description...........................................................................................5 History...................................................................................................................6 Key Employees.....................................................................................................8 Key Employee Biographies..................................................................................9 Major Products and Services............................................................................13 Top Competitors.................................................................................................14 Locations and Subsidiaries...............................................................................15
Page 3
289
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Harbin Electric is involved in manufacturing a range of electric motors. Its product line includes linear motors (LMs), automobile specialty micro-motors for automobile interior applications, and industrial rotary motors for use in agricultural equipment and medical devices. The company primarily operates in China and the US. It is headquartered in Harbin, China, and employs around 4,430 people. The company recorded revenues of $426.5 million in the fiscal year ended December 2010, an increase of 91% over 2009. The company's operating profit was $93.3 million in fiscal 2010, an increase of 67.1% over 2009. Its net profit was $76.8 million in fiscal 2010, as compared to the net profit of $19.6 million in 2009.
KEY FACTS
Head Office Harbin Electric, Inc. 9 Ha Ping Xi Lu Ha Ping Lu Ji Zhong Qu Harbin Kai Fa Qu Harbin 150060 CHN 86 451 8611 6757
http://www.harbinelectric.com
Revenue / turnover 426.4 (USD Mn) Financial Year End Employees NASDAQ Ticker December 4,430 HRBN
Page 4
290
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION
Harbin Electric is engaged in the design, develop, manufacture, supply, and service a wide range of electric motors including linear motors, specialty micro-motors, and industrial rotary motors, and value-added products. The company sells its products principally in China, but also to certain international markets. The company currently operates the following four manufacturing facilities in China: Harbin Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd. (Harbin Tech Full), a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, is located in the government-designated Development Zone in the city of Harbin with approximately 50,000 square meters of land and manufactures linear motors and linear motor integrated systems; Shanghai Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd. (Shanghai Tech Full), a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, is located in the Shanghai Zhuqiao Airport Industrial Zone with 40,800 square meters of land and manufactures specialty micro-motors; Weihai Tech Full Simo Motor Co., Ltd. (Weihai Tech Full), a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, is located in Weihai with approximately 150,000 square meters of land and primarily manufactures small to medium sized industrial rotary motors; and Xian Tech Full Simo Motor Co., Ltd. (Xian Tech Full Simo), a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, manufactures primarily medium to large sized industrial rotary motors. Xian Tech Full Simo is located in Xian citys Economy and Technology Development Zone and occupies approximately 200,000 square meters of land. Harbin Electric offers three major product lines: linear motors (LMs) and integrated systems, specialty micro-motors, and industrial rotary motors. LMs operate on the same physical principles as a traditional motor, but the stator, or non-moving component, is flat, rather than cylindrical, producing linear, rather than rotational, force. The company sells its LMs to a broad range of customers in China and in the US, including those involved in the energy industry, factory automation, food processing, packaging industries, power generation systems, and mass transportation and freight transportation systems. Specialty micro-motors are used for various automation functions for automotives, precision instrument and machinery, office equipment, medical devices, and consumer electronics. The company supplies these products to domestic customers and also exports them to OEM suppliers in North America. Harbin Electric offers a wide range of industrial rotary motors including small, medium, and large-sized motors and some specialized motors such as high/low voltage motors and speed control motors. Its industrial rotary motors are widely used for trains, power plants, steel processing, agricultural machineries, heavy machineries, material industry, construction industry, chemical industry, HVAC, aviation, navigation and hi-tech fields. The company markets industrial rotary motors under brands Simo Motor manufactured by Xian Tech Full Simo and Wenbao Motor manufactured by Weihai Tech Full.
Page 5
291
HISTORY
Harbin Electric was incorporated in 2003 as Harbin Tech Full Technology Development Co., Ltd. to engage in the business of providing travel and concierge services. In the same year, the company formed Harbin Tech Full Electric (HTFE) was founded. In 2004, the company established a subsidiary, Tech Full International (TFI). In the same year, HTFE exchanged all outstanding stock of HTFE for stock of Tech Full International and HTFE thereby became a subsidiary of TFI. TFI was merged with and into a subsidiary of Torch (Torch Subsidiary), and Torch was renamed Harbin Electric in 2005. Subsequently, the Torch Subsidiary changed its name to Advanced Electric Motors. In the same year, Tech Full International changed its name to Tech Full Holdings. Harbin Electric was listed on OTC Bulletin Board by reverse merger with Torch under the symbol HRBN, in 2005. In the same year, Tech Full Holdings changed its name to Advanced Electric Motors. In 2006, Harbin Electric formed Shanghai Tech Full Electric to develop and manufacture automobile specialty micro-motors and their components and accessories in China. The company began trading on the NASDAQ Global Market under the ticker symbol HRBN in 2007. In the same year, Harbin Electric established a subsidiary Advanced Automation Group. In the same year, the company acquired Harbin Taifu Auto Electric, a manufacturer of automobile specialty micro-motors in China. In 2008, Harbin Electric, through its subsidiary Harbin Tech Full Electric, acquired Hengda Electric Motor and Wendeng Second Electric Motor Factory, an industrial rotary motor business in Harbin, China. The company changed the name of its subsidiary Weihai Hengda Electric Motor Co., Ltd. to Weihai Tech Full Simo Motor Co., Ltd, in 2009. In 2009, Harbin Electric acquired Xian Simo Motor Incorporation (Group) and changed its name to Xian Tech Full Simo Motor Co., Ltd (Simo Motor). In June 2010, Simo Motor, subsidiary of the company, purchased 100% of the outstanding equity of Xian Tech Full Lamination Co., Ltd. ('Lamination'), Xian Simo ADa Motor Co., Ltd. ('ADa Motor'), Xian Tech Full Simo Moulds Co., Ltd. ('Moulds') and Xian Tech Full Simo Transportation Co., Ltd. ('Transportation').
Page 6
292
In the same month, Simo Motor sold the outstanding equity of Tianjin Simo Electric Co., Ltd. ('Electric'), Xian Simo Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd. ('Science and Technology') and Xian Simo Imports and Exports Co., Ltd. ('Imports and Exports'). In June 2011, Harbin Electric entered into an agreement and plan of merger ('Merger Agreement') with Tech Full Electric Company Limited (parent), a Cayman Islands exempted company with limited liability, wholly owned indirectly by Mr. Tianfu Yang, the companys Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Tech Full Electric Acquisition, Inc., a Nevada corporation and a wholly-owned by parent.
Page 7
293
KEY EMPLOYEES
Name
Tianfu Yang Lanxiang Gao Ching Chuen Chan David Gatton Yunyue Ye Boyd Plowman Zedong Xu Kanenori Okawa Tianli Yang Christy Y Shue
Job Title
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Director, and Chief Operating Officer, Shanghai Tech-Full Independent Director Independent Director Independent Director Independent Director Chief Financial Officer Chief Technology Officer Vice President Executive Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations; and Corporate Secretary
Board
Executive Board Executive Board Non Executive Board Non Executive Board Non Executive Board Non Executive Board Senior Management Senior Management Senior Management Senior Management
Compensation
26470 USD
15882 USD
Vice President, Shanghai Tech-Full Senior Management Director, Research and Senior Management Development, Advanced Automation Group
Page 8
294
Lanxiang Gao
Board: Executive Board Job Title: Director, and Chief Operating Officer, Shanghai Tech-Full Since: 2007 Age: 58 Ms. Gao has been a Director and Chief Operating Officer, Shanghai Tech-Full Electric, a subsidiary of Harbin Electric, since 2007. She worked as an Engineer at Shanghai No.21 Research Institute. Ms. Gao managed a development and production project of office automation motors in collaboration with Sankyo Seiki of Japan for 10 years and served as the Senior Engineer. She graduated from Zhejiang University, China with a major in Electrical Engineering.
Page 9
295
Ukraine Academy of Engineering Sciences and a Fellow and Vice President at Hong Kong Academy of Engineering Sciences. He graduated from Tsing Hua University in 1959 with a Master of Science degree in Electrical Engineering and obtained his PhD in 1982 from University of Hong Kong.
David Gatton
Board: Non Executive Board Job Title: Independent Director Since: 2005 Age: 57 Mr. Gatton has been an Independent Director at Harbin Electric since 2005. Since 1985, he has served as the Chairman and President of Development Initiatives. Mr. Gatton advises cities, organizations, and companies on business development strategies, public and private partnerships and marketing initiatives. He holds a BA from Cornell College and a Masters degree from Harvard University.
Yunyue Ye
Board: Non Executive Board Job Title: Independent Director Since: 2006 Age: 59 Mr. Ye has been an Independent Director at Harbin Electric since 2006. He is currently a Professor in Electrical Engineering at Zhejiang University, where he has taught for the past seven years. Mr. Ye also currently serves as a Director at Aerospace Electric and Electrical Motor Institute of Zhejiang University and a Director at Linear Motor Institute of the Chinese Electro-technical Society. He was also Council Member at China Electro-technical Society. Mr. Ye graduated from Zhejiang University in 1978.
Boyd Plowman
Board: Non Executive Board Job Title: Independent Director Since: 2009 Age: 67 Mr. Plowman has been an Independent Director at Harbin Electric since 2009. He is the retired Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Fleetwood Enterprises, Inc. where he was employed from 1969 to 1987 and from 1997 to 2008. During his career with Fleetwood, Mr. Plowman held numerous leadership positions including Controller, Treasurer, and Financial Vice President. During his second stint with Fleetwood, he served as an Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer until his retirement in 2008. He also served as the President and Chief Executive Officer at
Page 10
296
Lee & Associates. Prior to that, Mr. Plowman served as a Director and Chairman of the Audit Committee at Corporate Insurance and Reinsurance Company Limited (CIRCL), a Bermuda-based company reinsuring risks for captive insurance companies. He holds a bachelor's degree from Utah State University and was a certified public accountant.
Zedong Xu
Board: Senior Management Job Title: Chief Financial Officer Since: 2005 Age: 41 Mr. Xu has been the Chief Financial Officer at Harbin Electric since 2005. From 2003 until present, he has been the Chief Financial Officer at Harbin Tech Full Electric. Since 2000, Mr. Xu has been the Chief Financial Officer at Harbin Tech Full Industry. From 1998 to 2000, he was employed as the Chief Financial Officer at Harbin WanDa Electrical Home Appliances. From 1996 to 1998, he was a Financial Manager at Harbin High Technology Torch Daya Real Estate. Mr. Xu graduated in 1992 from Harbin Electrical Engineering College with a BA in Project Management.
Kanenori Okawa
Board: Senior Management Job Title: Chief Technology Officer Since: 2007 Mr. Okawa has been the Chief Technology Officer at Harbin Electric since 2007. From 1997 to 2007, he was Chief Technology Advisor at Nittoku Engineering. From 1973 to 1997, Mr. Okawa worked at Industrial Far East and held various positions including serving as the President from 1978 to 1997. He began his career with Ikegami Tuusinki after he graduated in 1971 with a BS in Electrical Engineering.
Tianli Yang
Board: Senior Management Job Title: Vice President Since: 2005 Mr. Yang has been the Vice President at Harbin Electric since 2005. Since 2003, he was the Vice President at Harbin Tech Full Electric. Since 2000, Mr.Yang has been the Vice President at Harbin Tech Full Industry. From 1985 to 2000, he was employed in the China State Construction Engineering Corporation in various positions, including Chief Administration Officer. Mr. Yang graduated from Helongjiang University in 1985 with a BA in Chinese Language and Literature.
Christy Y Shue
Page 11
297
Board: Senior Management Job Title: Executive Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations; and Corporate Secretary Ms. Shue is an Executive Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations; and Corporate Secretary at Harbin Electric. Prior to joining the company, she was the Vice President and a Senior Investor Relations Consultant at Christensen. Prior to joining Christensen, Ms. Shue was Manager, Investor Relations at International Paper. She holds a PhD in Chemistry from Purdue University and an MBA in Finance business from the Stern School of Business, New York University. She earned her Bachelor of Science degree from Sichuan University, China.
Suofei Xu
Board: Senior Management Job Title: Vice President, Shanghai Tech-Full Mr. Xu is the Vice President, Shanghai Tech-Full, a subsidiary of the company. From 2003 to 2008, he was the Vice President at Harbin Tech Full Electric. From 2003 to 2008, Mr. Xu was the Vice President at Harbin Tech Full Industry. From 2001 to 2003, he was an Investment Manager at Shenzhen Capital Group. From 1997 to 2001, he worked at Guangfa Securities as a Project Manager. From 1991 to 1997, Mr. Xu worked as the Section Chief for system allocation reform at Harbin Economic System Reform Committee. He graduated in 1988 from Fudan University with a BA in Law.
Shaotang Chen
Board: Senior Management Job Title: Director, Research and Development, Advanced Automation Group Since: 2007 Dr. Chen has been a Director, Research and Development, Advanced Automation Group, a subsidiary of Harbin Electric, since 2007. From 2000 to 2007, he has been the Staff Research Engineer at Delphi Research Labs. From 2001 to 2003, Dr. Chen was Delphi Research Labs Chief Scientist at Delphi Energenix Center. From 1999 to 2000, he was Senior Research Engineer for Mechatronics Group at Delphi Research Labs. From 1995 to 1999, Dr. Chen was Senior Research Engineer in the Electrical and Electronics Department at General Motors NAO Research and Development Center. He graduated in 1995 from University of Wisconsin-Madison with a PhD in Electrical Engineering.
Page 12
298
Page 13
299
TOP COMPETITORS
The following companies are the major competitors of Harbin Electric, Inc.
Franklin Electric Co., Inc. Emerson Electric Co. General Electric Company Nidec Corporation
Page 14
300
Page 15
301
Conclusions Page 9
Harbin Electric, Inc. is an above average quality company with a negative outlook. Harbin Electric, Inc. has medium business growth and is run by efficient management. The trend in Harbin Electric, Inc. fair value exchange rate against its closest rated-competitor, American Superconductor Corporation, has been depreciating over the past 2 weeks. When compared to its closest peer, Hydrogenics Corporation (USA), Harbin Electric, Inc. shows similar undervaluation and is more likely to outperform the market. StockMarks Ratings Total Quality Classical Business Management Price Volability Outperformance
SMT
SMC
SMB
SMM
SMP
SMV
SMO
Summary StockMarks Ratings for Harbin Electric, Inc. were calculated in relation to the entire population of 4198 United States-listed companies rated today, using a scale from 0 (worst) to 100 (best). For an explanation of each rating, see page 10.
1
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
302
HRBN
Industrials
NASDAQ
2011-06-28
Harbin Electric, Inc.'s registered activity is in the Electrical Components & Equipment industry. The table above gives a profile of the company.
The chart below shows the movements of the Total Quality StockMark (SMT)
and share price expressed as indexes since we began rating the company.
It is a mid-cap stock currently trading at a multiple of 7.42 times earnings. While Harbin Electric, Inc.'s share price has fallen considerably in the last quarter, the company's longterm investment rating (chart above) decreased over the same period.
2
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
303
An important question to ask is whether Harbin Electric, Inc.s underlying long-term fundamentals justify the steep decline in the company's share price. We can examine this issue using the StockMarks framework. First, in the chart on the right, we compare the companys trend for each rating, followed by a comparison of the companys overall long-term investment attractiveness rating (Total StockMark or SMT) in relation to its sector (chart below).
Ratings showing a positive trend: Total; Price; Classic; Volatility; Outperformance; Ratings showing a negative trend: Business; Management;
Recent rating trends:
Harbin Electric, Inc. currently has an overall quality rating significantly above the average of its sector.
Harbin Electric, Inc. currently has an overall long-term investment attractiveness rating (Total StockMark or SMT) of 65, placing Harbin Electric, Inc. above the SMT average of 50.88 for United Stateslisted companies. This rating ranks Harbin Electric, Inc. fourth when compared to ten of its closest peers, selected because of similarity of business, financial and market-positioning factors such as size (see page 5).
How do the Harbin Electric, Inc.'s ratings rank among selected benchmark groups?
StockMarks ratings were calculated in relation to the total of 4198 United States-listed companies rated today. Although the scale from 0 to 100 is in itself meaningful, for benchmarking purposes we need to define a few relevant reference groups, namely competitors, correlated stocks and value investing peers.
3
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
304
Company Name
Similarity Industry SMT SMB SMM % Share % 0.20 83.3 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 66.7 66.7 0.19 0.01 4.11 0.36 1.15 0.18 0.86 0.95 0.03 0.16 65 62 37 65 48 69 50 68 65 24 57 44 44 61 50 27 67 27 75 49 30 26 66 62 18 59 56 51 58 51 60 16 72
SMP 67 66 72 67 66 66 67 53 66 74 66
Harbin Electric, Inc.s best rank among competitors is second for the Management Efficiency (SMM) rating.
The closest competitor, American Superconductor Corporation has a similarity index of 83.3% and a market share of 0.2% compared to Harbin Electric, Inc.s market share of 0.2% (See table on the right). Harbin Electric, Inc.s competitors were selected based on the registration industry, total revenue and market capitalization among rated companies. These do not include non-listed companies and foreign competitors, which may be more significant. Similarly, we calculated the industry market share only in relation to rated companies. Therefore, a 100% market share does not mean that the company has no competitors in the industry. China Ritar Power Corp. is the closest stock for pair trading with a similarity index of 75%, defined on the basis of market correlation, sector and trading volumes. To assess the recent convergence/divergence trend, readers should use a chart to compare the prices of the chosen pair. SADIF subscribers may draw such chart by choosing option 3 in the Due Diligence Section. In general, pair trading requires degrees of similarity above 70%.
HYGS NJ
FELE Franklin Electric Co. AOS A. O. Smith Corporation AZZ BEZ AZZ Incorporated Baldor Electric Company
JELC Johnson Electric Holdings Y (... HEV Ener1, Inc. AEIS Advanced Energy Industries,...
The success of pair trading strategies depends on the investors ability to forecast the convergence path. However, convergence itself may only happen if the two companies are not diverging in a fundamental way. Investors can evaluate this possibility by comparing the StockMarks quality ratings shown in the second table below.
In relation to its highest correlated stocks (for pair trading) Harbin Electric, Inc.s best rank is third for the Management Efficiency (SMM) rating. However, to assess pair trading convergence it is also important to consider Harbin Electric, Inc.s worst ranking, which is sixth for the Price Attractiveness (SMP) rating.
Company Name
Similarity SMT SMB SMM SMP % 65 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 58 33 53 80 43 75 52 66 65 60 44 39 21 37 79 25 55 40 64 30 50 66 59 43 51 57 48 70 44 46 77 50 67 67 69 71 67 69 68 71 68 66 69
HRBN Harbin Electric, Inc. CRTP China Ritar Power Corp. TEX Terex Corporation
GTLS Chart Industries, Inc. GNK TXT GTI MTW Genco Shipping & Trading Li... Textron Inc. GrafTech International Ltd. Manitowoc Company, Inc.
PLNR Planar Systems, Inc. PWER Power-One, Inc. MIC Macquarie Infrastructure Co...
4
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
305
At this stage, some investors may find it useful to read the Due Diligence Reports for these peers or competitors.
The overall conclusion is that Harbin Electric, Inc. is an above average quality company with a negative outlook. Nevertheless, we need to look further into its determinants by examining each quality rating separately. We selected also a group of investment peers in terms of longterm operational and financial similarities. Because of the stringency of the criteria used, not all companies have a degree of similarity greater than the minimum of 50% recommended for reliable benchmarking. Among this group shown in the table above on the right, Harbin Electric, Inc.s best rank is second for the Management Efficiency (SMM) rating. The radar chart above provides a synopsis of all of Harbin Electric, Inc.s ratings in comparison to its top two peers.
5
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
306
in place as it takes a few quarters before its impact is shown in the company financials. Also, sometimes a small temporary decline or rise may not be attributed to a change in efficiency but are instead the result of large shifts in investment/disinvestment.
6
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
307
The fair value exchange rate of Harbin Electric, Inc.s stock in relation to its closest competitor American Superconductor Corporation is depreciating.
The valuation of stock-for-stock offers in M&A transactions is quite complex when shareholders of the acquirer and the target company hold significantly different views on the intrinsic value of their companies. The nominal stock exchange rate as given by current market prices (shown in the chart below) may be misleading if markets, as they often do, over-estimate or underestimate the premium/discount relative to intrinsic value.
A chart of the SMP and the ratings of some of the company's key price valuation multiples is shown above. Investors need to consider the most recent absolute value of the SMP and its determinants together with the SMP trend. First, to verify if the stock is caught at a stationary level, indicating that it may remain undervalued or overvalued for long periods. Second, investors should assess if it is diverging or converging in relation to a fair valuation (SMP between 4555).
7
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
308
Unfortunately, the estimation of intrinsic values is a very challenging task. However, we may minimize the problem and bypass the need to estimate intrinsic values by adjusting the nominal stock exchange rates with our Price Attractiveness StockMark (SMP), which estimates the degree of over or undervaluation at any level of the market premium or discount. By adjusting the nominal rates by the relative SMPs we obtain the fair value exchange rate. Current nominal rates vs. fair value stock exchange rates are shown in the previous page:
The trend in the fair value exchange rates shown above is relevant not only to adjust valuations but also to assess the price outlook for Harbin Electric, Inc..
8
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
309
The market sentiment in relation to Harbin Electric, Inc. is positive and is deteriorating
No due diligence is complete without considering the market sentiment in relation to Harbin Electric, Inc., because this is paramount in determining the stock s performance in the short to medium-term.
For this, we use the Outperformance StockMark (SMO), which measures the likelihood of the company to outperform the market in the near term. This rating combines the company's past quarter price dynamics with its market risk and total quality, in a scale from 0 (worst) to 100 (best). Harbin Electric, Inc.s SMO is currently at 77. Looking at its trend in the chart on the left, we can see that it is deteriorating. When compared to its closest peer, Hydrogenics Corporation (USA), Harbin Electric, Inc. shows similar undervaluation and is more likely to outperform the market. While, if compared to its first competitor, American Superconductor Corporation, Harbin Electric, Inc. shows similar undervaluation and is equally likely to outperform the market.
Conclusions The company's share price in the past year has been hit hard, but we believe that its underlying fundamentals will determine the stocks long-term performance. A StockMarks analysis of Harbin Electric, Inc. reveals a company with an above average quality and medium long-term business growth. The likelihood of Harbin Electric, Inc. stock to outperform the market as measured by the Outperformance StockMark (SMO) is well above average with a rating of 77 / 100. The risk associated with holding the shares as measured by the Volatility StockMark (SMV) is well below average with a rating of 75 /100. Overall, we believe Harbin Electric, Inc. to be a good long-term investment.
9
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
310
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. This report is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or advice to buy or sell any security. The data contained within this report is not warranted to be accurate or complete. This report is only intended as a summary of SADIF's stock ratings and not a recommendation for stock purchase or sale. Redistribution of this report without explicit permission is strictly prohibited. All logos are the copyright property of their respective companies and are used here only to aid the reader in identification of the subject of the article. The author of this article does not hold a position in any of the companies featured within this report.
Marques Mendes & Associados Lda. Rua Domingos F. Pinto Basto, 17 3830-176 Ilhavo, Portugal, Ph: (+ 351)234 322 037 Email: research@sadifanalytics.com
10
311
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
China June 28, 2011
Closing Price (6/27/11): 12-Month Target Price: 52-Week Range: Market Cap (MM): Shares O/S (MM): Float (MM): Shares Short (MM): Avg. Vol. (000) Book Value/Share: Dividend/Yield: Risk Profile: Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Maxim Group FYE: December 2009A: GAAP 2010A: GAAP 2011E: GAAP 2012E: GAAP LT Earnings Growth Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Consensus-First Call FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Echo He, MD, PhD ehe@maximgrp.com $14.99 $24 $5.82 - $25.05 $470.7 31.4 16.8 9.8 1,615 $19.60 NA Medium Revenues ($M) 2011E 2012E $103.8A $122.1 $112.2 $134.7 $123.0 $140.4 $131.6 $150.4 $470.7 $547.6 Current Current EPS P/E $0.77 19.5 $2.46 6.1 $2.14 7.0 $2.67 5.6 10% - 15% GAAP Quarterly EPS Current 2011E $0.34A $0.48 $0.63 $0.68 Current 2012E $0.58 $0.66 $0.70 $0.74
Buy
financing;
Recently we received large number of investor inquiries about HRBNs debt financing, in particular, whether the current agreement is binding and how it is structured. After reading through the details in the SEC documents, we have concluded several important points. The $400M Facility Agreement dated June 9, 2011, is a binding agreement not a letter of intend. As far as we understand, the letter of intend for the $400M term loan was issued by China Development Bank (CDB) when HRBNs buying group, Chairman Mr. Yang, Abax Global Capital (Abax) and a few other member of HRBNs top management file a 13-D to SEC on May 2, 2011 indicating the secure of such debt financing. Since that time, specific contract terms were negotiated and the June 9 Facility Agreement was the result of the negotiation and a binding agreement of $400M term loan. That said the utilization of the loan is subject to fulfillment of all required documents, including Corporate Documents, Legal Opinions, Finance Documents, Acquisition Agreement and Regulatory Approval. The $400M term loan from CDB is mainly collateralized by HRBNs equities. As far as we understand, one important type of Finance Documents required by CDB was Security Documents, which mainly include the Borrower Share Mortgage and the Target Share Pledge. Borrow Share Mortgage is a document that the shareholders of Tech Full Electric Company Limited (Tech Full), or the acquisition vehicle, pledge their entire equity interest in Tech Full as the loan collateral; here the shareholders are mainly HRBNs Chairman Mr. Yang. Target Share Pledge is a document that Tech Full pledges its entire equity interest in HRBN after the completion of the acquisition as the loan collateral. In addition, CDB has required Mr. Yang and his wifes personal assets as extra collateral in case the assets/equity interest of HRBN are not sufficient for the loan value. This extra collateral is where the Personal Guarantee comes into play. The $50M term loans ($35M and RMB100M) issued by CDB last November was to HRBN and not included in the $400M facility. Mr. Yang pledged 7M shares of HRBN he owns to collateralize the loan. In our view, it is more convenient for CDB to access Mr. Yangs personal assets as he is a Chinese citizen than a foreign issuers assets as HRBN is registered in Nevada, U.S.A. Second, it is a rather standard practice for a Chinese state-owned bank like CDB to give a large discount on any assets taken as loan collateral, a reason why it seems CDB valued Mr. Yangs shares much lower than then market value. Overall, we expect SEC is likely to approve the merger transaction in a few months. Our Buy rating and $24 price target is mainly based on a favorable outcome of HRBNs LBO. In our view, the wide gap between the current share price and the LBO offering price creates buying opportunities.
$2.14 $2.67 Quarterly EPS 2011E 2012E $0.34A $0.58 $0.50 $0.66 $0.62 $0.70 $0.66 $0.74 $2.12 $2.78 (212) 895-3718
Maxim Group LLC 405 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10174 www.maximgrp.com
SEE PAGES 4-6 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS 312
Chinese Industrial Companies China Automotive CAAS A-Power APWR FushiCopperweld FSIN Lihua International LIWA Shengdatech SDTH Wonder Auto WATG ChemSpec CPC China Gerui Adv. Materia CHOP SORL Auto Parts SORL Average HK Listed China Motor Companies Harbin Power Equipment 1133-HK Shanghai Electric Group 2727-HK Dongfang Electric Group 1072-HK Chongqing Machinery & E2722-HK Shanghai Prime Machine 2345-HK Average
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
China Mainland Listed China Motor Companies Xiangtan Electric 600416-SH $ 1.88 Zhejiang Founder Motor 002196-SZ $ 2.41 BroadOcean 002249-SZ $ 3.18 Jiangte Electric Motor 002176-SZ $ 3.47 Shanghai Electric Group 601727-SH $ 1.06 Dongfang Electric Group 600875-SH $ 3.90 Average
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ -$
US/International Motor Companies Siemens SI $ 132.00 $ 114,672 ABB ABB $ 25.01 $ 57,273 Emerson Electric EMR $ 53.87 $ 40,573 Illinois Tool Works ITW $ 54.75 $ 27,511 Cummins CMI $ 97.39 $ 19,244 Magna International MGA $ 50.62 $ 5,708 Rockwell Automation ROK $ 81.14 $ 11,571 Lear Corporation LEA $ 51.07 $ 2,384 Regal Beloit RBC $ 64.01 $ 2,464 Smith AO AOS $ 40.93 $ 1,249 Franklin Electric FELE $ 45.04 $ 1,048 Average Source: Thomson One, Bloomberg and Maxim Group estimates.
$ 6.09 $ 1.25 $ 2.69 $ 3.08 $ 5.17 $ 4.34 $ 3.05 $ 4.42 n/a $ 2.87 $ 1.94
$ 11.39 $ 1.56 $ 3.27 $ 3.94 $ 8.01 $ 5.08 $ 4.58 $ 5.23 n/a $ 2.10 $ 2.50
$ 10.60 $ 1.91 $ 3.87 $ 4.60 $ 9.69 $ 5.56 $ 5.44 $ 5.97 n/a -$ 2.46 $ 2.89
21.7x 20.0x 20.0x 17.8x 18.8x 11.7x 26.6x 11.6x -14.3x 23.2x 18.6x
11.6x 16.0x 16.5x 13.9x 12.2x 10.0x 17.7x 9.8x -19.5x 18.0x 14.5x
12.4x 13.1x 13.9x 11.9x 10.1x 9.1x 14.9x 8.6x 16.6x 15.6x 12.6x
313
4.9 (2.3) 2.6 52.9% (0.1) 1.9% (0.2) 3.8% (0.3) 2.3 47.1% 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0% 2.3 0.0% 2.3 47.6% 2.2 6.4 6.4 0.36 0.36 0.1 2.4 48.6% 8.28
23.6 $ 387% (12.1) 11.6 350% 48.9% (0.3) 1.4% (1.3) 5.3% (1.6) 10.0 42.1% 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0% 10.0 0.0% 10.0 333% 42.3% 0.5 11.1 14.9 15.1
40.4 $ 71% (20.8) 19.7 70% 48.6% (1.5) 3.7% (4.2) 10.3% (5.7) 14.0 34.6% 0.0 (2.5) 4.4 18.4 0.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 84% 45.6% 1.0 19.5 16.6 18.3
19.8 20.1 19.3 17.0 76.3 19.3 18.1 19.3 20.4 77.2 86.8 60% 74% 18% -14% 27% -3% -10% 0% 20% 1% 12% 56% 19% 19% 18% 16% 18% 19% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 18.3 16.2 15.2 15.3 14.0 60.8 15.5 14.7 15.3 16.1 61.7 67.9 166% 78% 81% -18% 51% -4% (3.0%) 0% 15% 2% 10% 28% 15% 14% 14% 13% 14% 15% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 22.5 23.6 23.5 23.7 93.2 21.8 25.9 27.0 30.8 105.5 125.7 107% 39% 14% 3% 31% -3% 10% 15% 30% 13% 19% 0% 21% 22% 21% 22% 22% 21% 23% 22% 23% 22% 23% 45.0 44.6 48.9 49.9 188.5 46.3 51.3 58.7 62.4 218.7 258.9 13% 6% 11% 12% 11% 3% 15% 20% 25% 16% 18% 0% 0% 20% 43% 42% 45% 47% 44% 45% 46% 48% 47% 46% 47% 65.4 $ 120.8 $ 223.2 $ 105.5 $ 105.4 $ 109.4 $ 106.2 $ 426.5 $ 103.8 $ 112.2 $ 123.0 $ 131.6 $ 470.7 $ 547.6 62% 85% 85% 243% 175% 133% -1% 91% (1.6%) 6% 12% 24% 10% 16% (33.0) (73.3) (146.6) (69.7) (70.1) (75.8) (75.1) (290.8) (73.6) (80.4) (87.6) (94.1) (335.7) (391.9) 32.4 65% 49.6% (1.1) 1.6% (7.7) 11.7% (8.7) 23.7 36.3% (0.2) (6.6) (6.8) 16.9 0.0% 16.9 0.0% 16.9 (8%) 25.8% 7.2 13.2 17.1 18.6 47.5 46% 39.3% (1.2) 1.0% (11.9) 9.9% (13.1) 34.4 45% 28.5% 1.6 (6.1) (4.5) 29.9 (4.5) 15.1% 25.4 0.0% 25.4 50% 21.0% 9.5 40.0 20.2 21.3 76.6 61% 34.3% (2.1) 0.9% (18.7) 8.4% (20.8) 55.8 62% 25.0% 5.5 (12.3) (24.9) 30.9 (7.8) 25.2% 23.1 (3.5) 11.3% 19.6 (23%) 8.8% (0.1) 16.3 25.6 25.7 35.7 227% 33.9% (0.6) 0.6% (7.4) 7.0% (8.0) 27.7 246% 26.3% 1.1 (1.6) (0.8) 27.0 (4.1) 15.1% 22.9 (2.4) 8.7% 20.6 137% 19.5% 0.1 20.6 31.1 31.4 0.66 $ 0.66 $ 68% 3.3 0.3 31.3 6.84 35.3 175% 33.5% (0.4) 0.3% (6.9) 6.5% (7.2) 28.1 219% 26.6% 1.3 (1.0) 1.4 29.5 (3.8) 12.9% 25.7 (0.0) 0.0% 25.7 NM 24.4% 1.3 27.0 31.1 31.3 0.83 $ 0.82 $ NM 2.8 0.3 31.1 6.84 33.6 100% 30.7% (1.7) 1.5% (10.1) 9.2% (11.7) 21.9 68% 20.0% 0.7 (1.1) (0.7) 21.2 (3.3) 15.6% 17.9 (0.0) 0.1% 17.9 NM 16.3% 5.6 23.5 31.1 31.3 31.1 -14% 29.2% (0.8) 0.8% (14.6) 13.8% (15.4) 15.6 (39.7%) 14.7% 2.3 (0.8) 0.9 16.6 (3.8) 22.7% 12.8 (0.1) 0.4% 12.7 -31% 12.0% 6.7 19.4 31.1 31.3 135.7 77% 31.8% (3.4) 0.8% (39.0) 9.1% (42.4) 93.3 67% 21.9% 5.5 (4.6) 0.8 94.2 (14.9) 15.8% 79.2 (2.4) 2.6% 76.8 291% 18.0% 13.7 90.5 31.1 31.3 30.2 (15%) 29.1% (3.9) 3.7% (10.1) 9.7% (14.0) 16.3 (41%) 15.7% 1.1 (1.9) (1.2) 15.0 (4.2) 27.9% 10.8 (0.0) 0.1% 10.8 (47.4%) 10.4% 2.4 13.3 31.3 31.4 31.9 -10% 28.4% (1.3) 1.2% (10.3) 9.2% (11.7) 20.2 (28%) 18.0% 1.2 (1.9) (1.2) 19.1 (3.8) 20.0% 15.2 0.0% 15.2 (40.6%) 13.6% 15.2 31.3 31.4 35.4 5% 28.8% (1.2) 1.0% (9.0) 7.3% (10.2) 25.2 15% 20.5% 1.3 (1.9) (1.0) 24.1 (4.3) 18.0% 19.8 0.0% 19.8 11% 16.1% 19.8 31.4 31.5 0.63 $ 0.63 $ 10% 2.9 0.1 28.2 6.51 37.5 21% 28.5% (1.3) 1.0% (9.5) 7.2% (10.8) 26.7 71% 20.3% 1.4 (1.9) (0.9) 25.8 (4.4) 17.0% 21.4 0.0% 21.4 69% 16.3% 21.4 31.4 31.6 135.0 -1% 28.7% (7.8) 1.7% (38.9) 8.3% (46.6) 88.4 -5% 18.8% 5.1 (7.7) (4.4) 84.0 (16.7) 19.9% 67.3 (0.0) 0.0% 67.3 -12% 14.3% 67.3 31.3 31.5 155.7 15% 28.4% (4.4) 0.8% (41.3) 7.5% (45.7) 109.9 24% 20.1% 5.5 (7.7) (4.0) 106.0 (21.2) 20.0% 84.8 0.0% 84.8 26% 15.5% 84.8 31.6 31.7 2.68 2.67 25% 14.7 1.3 125.9 23.0% 6.36
60.3 22% 27% 40.2 19% 18% 71.4 157% 23% 32% $ 44.5
$ $
1.11 $ 0.99 $ 1.01 $ 0.91 $ 53% (10%) 2.2 6.2 0.9 1.6 17.1 42.3% 7.80 31.4 48.1% 7.30
1.25 $ 0.77 $ 1.19 $ 0.77 $ 31% (35.7%) 7.7 17.0 1.8 1.2 43.8 36.3% 6.83 74.1 33.2% 6.84
0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.47 $ 0.35 $ 0.49 $ 0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.46 $ 0.34 $ 0.48 $ NM -25% 221% (47.4%) (40.8%) 3.1 2.3 11.5 2.9 2.9 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 25.2 6.84 18.2 6.60 105.8 24.8% 6.76 19.3 6.57 23.2 6.54
0.68 $ 2.15 $ 0.68 $ 2.14 $ 54% -13% 2.9 11.5 0.1 0.4 29.7 6.48 100.4 21.3% 6.48
314
Source: Investars.com
As of:
% of Coverage Universe
6/28/2011
% of Ratings that Firm received Banking fees 24.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Performance* Buy Hold Sell Expected total return of 15% or more over next 12 months Expected total return of plus or minus 14% over next 12 months Expected total negative return of at least 15% over next 12 months
* Relative to Nasdaq Composite. An Under Review (UR) rating represents a stock that the Firm has temporarily placed under review due to a material change.
Maxim Group makes a market in Harbin Electric, Inc. Maxim Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Harbin Electric, Inc. in the next 3 months.
I, Echo He, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firms total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. Valuation Methods: One or more of the following valuation methods are used by Maxim Group analysts in making a ratings or price projection: Analysis of companies P/E ratio, price/book ratio, earnings expectations or sales growth as they relate within an industry group or to the broader market, enterprise value/sales, Individual sector analysis, sum of the parts analysis and discounted cash flow. Price Target Risks: Investment risks associated with the achievement of the price target include, but are not limited to, the companys failure to achieve our earnings and revenue estimates, unforeseen macroeconomic
315
RISK RATINGS
Risk ratings take into account both fundamental criteria and price volatility. Speculative Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to early-stage companies with minimal to no revenues, lack of earnings, balance sheet concerns, and/or a short operating history. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be significantly above the industry. Price Volatility: Because of the inherent fundamental criteria of the companies falling within this risk category, the price volatility is expected to be significant with the possibility that the investment could eventually be worthless. Speculative stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. High Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies having below-average revenue and earnings visibility, negative cash flow, and low market cap or public float. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be above the industry. Price volatility: The price volatility of companies falling within this category is expected to be above the industry. High-risk stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. Medium Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to approximate the industry average. Low Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have above-average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to be below the industry.
DISCLAIMERS
316
317
Prepared by the Company and Market Intelligence Unit at Datamonitor e:cpqueries@datamonitor.com OUR MAIN OFFICES: Datamonitor Americas 245 Fifth Avenue 4th Floor New York, NY 10016 USA t: +1 212 686 7400 e: usinfo@datamonitor.com Datamonitor Europe 119 Farringdon Road London EC1R 3DA t: +44 207 551 9000 e: euroinfo@datamonitor.com Datamonitor Asia Pacific Level 46, 2 Park Street Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia t: +61 2 8705 6900 e: apinfo@datamonitor.com Datamonitor India, Middle East and Asia 8th Floor, Vega Block The 'V' Park, Plot No.17, Madhapur 500-081 Andhra Pradesh, India t: +91 406 672 9500 e: ininfo@datamonitor.com
Company Report
Harbin Electric, Inc.
NASDAQ (HRBN) June 9, 2011
Datamonitor. All Rights Reserved. This publication is available on a single user license only. A Single-User License allows clients to place purchased report on one (1) computer system and NOT make use of the report on a corporate computer network. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, Datamonitor Ltd. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that Datamonitor delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such Datamonitor can accept no liability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.
318
Company Snapshot
Company Snapshot
Reference Code : 732345C1-017F-413B-A6A3-C3DF193F55EB Harbin Electric, Inc. 9 Ha Ping Xi Lu Ha Ping Lu Ji Zhong Qu Harbin Kai Fa Qu Harbin 150060 China Publication Date: June 2011 Phone: 86 451 8611 6757 Website: www.harbinelectric.com Industry: Industrial Goods and Machinery
Overview
Harbin Electric is involved in manufacturing a range of electric motors. Its product line includes linear motors (LMs), automobile specialty micro-motors for automobile interior applications, and industrial rotary motors for use in agricultural equipment and medical devices. The company primarily operates in China and the US. It is headquartered in Harbin, China, and employs around 2,000 people. The company recorded revenues of $223.2 million in the fiscal year ended December 2009, an increase of 84.8% over 2008. The company's operating profit was $55.8 million in fiscal 2009, an increase of 62.4% over 2008. Its net profit was $19.6 million in fiscal 2009, a decrease of 22.6% compared to 2008.
Key Employees
Employee Name Lanxiang Gao Tianfu Yang Job Title Director and Chief Operating Officer, Shanghai Tech-Full Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Executive Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations; and Corporate Secretary Chief Technology Officer Board Executive Board Executive Board
Christy Y Shue
Senior Management
Kanenori Okawa
Senior Management
Page 2 www.datamonitor.com
319
Company Snapshot
11 Oct 2010
19 Oct 2009
05 Aug 2009
15 Jul 2008
26 Jun 2008
Recent Developments
Date Nov 23, 2010 Headline Harbin Electric enters into term loan facility agreement with CDB Category Corporate loans/ other capital raising
Page 3 www.datamonitor.com
320
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Company Snapshot __________________________________________________________________ 2 Table of Contents ____________________________________________________________________ 4 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Overview and Key Facts ________________________________________ 7 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Overview ______________________________________________________ 7 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Key Facts _____________________________________________________ 7 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Key Employees ________________________________________________ 8 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Key Employee Biographies ______________________________________ 9 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Major Products and Services ___________________________________ 14 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Company History _____________________________________________ 15 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Company Analysis ________________________________________________ 16 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Business Description __________________________________________ 16 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Corporate Financial Deals Activity ___________________________________ 17 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Financial Deals Overview _______________________________________ 17 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Targets and Partners __________________________________________ 19 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Top Deals 2007 -YTD*2011 ______________________________________ 20 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Advisors_____________________________________________________ 21 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Top Legal Advisors _____________________________________________ 21 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Top Financial Advisors __________________________________________ 21 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Mergers and Acquisitions ______________________________________ 22 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Capital Raising _______________________________________________ 23 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Partnership __________________________________________________ 24 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Private Equity and Ownership ___________________________________ 25 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Recent Developments _____________________________________________ 26 Harbin Electric, Inc.: News and Events Summary _____________________________________ 26 Harbin Electric, Inc.: Financial Deals _______________________________________________ 26 Appendix __________________________________________________________________________ 27 Contact Us ____________________________________________________________________ 27 Methodology ___________________________________________________________________ 27 About Datamonitor ______________________________________________________________ 28
Page 4 www.datamonitor.com
321
Table of Contents
List of Tables
Table 1: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Key Facts ______________________________________________________________ 7 Table 2: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Key Employees _________________________________________________________ 8 Table 3: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Deal Activity by Deal Type - Volume (TTM) _________________________________ 17 Table 4: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Deal Activity by Deal Type - Volume (2007 - YTD*2011) _______________________ 18 Table 5: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Average Deal Size - Value (US$m) ____________________________________ 18 Table 6: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Targets and Partners ___________________________________________________ 19 Table 7: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Top Deals 2007 -YTD*2011 _______________________________________________ 20 Table 8: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Legal Advisor Ranking by Value (US$m) ___________________________________ 21 Table 9: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Financial Advisor Ranking by Value (US$m) ________________________________ 21 Table 10: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) ___________________________ 22 Table 11: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Activity by Geography (2007 - YTD*2011) _____________________________ 22 Table 12: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Capital Raising Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) __________________ 23 Table 13: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Capital Raising by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) ____________________________ 23 Table 14: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Partnership Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) _____________________ 24 Table 15: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Partnership Trend by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) __________________________ 24 Table 16: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Private Equity and Ownership Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) ______ 25 Table 17: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Private Equity and Ownership Volume by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) _________ 25 Table 18: Harbin Electric, Inc.: News and Events Summary _____________________________________________ 26 Table 19: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Financial Deals _______________________________________________________ 26
Page 5 www.datamonitor.com
322
Table of Contents
List of Figures
Figure 1: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Deal Activity by Deal Type - Volume (TTM) _________________________________ 17 Figure 2: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Deal Activity by Deal Type - Volume (2007 - YTD*2011) ______________________ 18 Figure 3: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Average Deal Size - Value (US$m) ___________________________________ 18 Figure 4: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) ___________________________ 22 Figure 5: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Activity by Geography (2007 - YTD*2011) _____________________________ 22 Figure 6: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Capital Raising Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) __________________ 23 Figure 7: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Capital Raising by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) ____________________________ 23 Figure 8: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Partnership Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) _____________________ 24 Figure 9: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Partnership Trend by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) __________________________ 24 Figure 10: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Private Equity and Ownership Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) _____ 25 Figure 11: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Private Equity and Ownership Volume by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) ________ 25
Page 6 www.datamonitor.com
323
Table of Contents
Table 1: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Key Facts Corporate Address: 9 Ha Ping Xi Lu Ha Ping Lu Ji Zhong Qu Harbin Kai Fa Qu Harbin 150060 Country: Phone: Web Address: Turnover (US$m): Employees: Financial Year End: Industry: Primary Stock Exchange (Ticker):
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
China 86 451 8611 6757 www.harbinelectric.com 223 2,000 December Industrial Goods and Machinery NASDAQ (HRBN)
DATAMONITOR
Page 7 www.datamonitor.com
324
Table of Contents
Tianfu Yang
Executive Board
48
2005
Christy Y Shue
Senior Management
46
Kanenori Okawa
Senior Management
2007
Shaotang Chen
Senior Management
2007
Senior Management Senior Management Senior Management Non Executive Board Non Executive Board Non Executive Board Non Executive Board Non Executive Board 46 40 66 2005 2005 2009
Director
75
2005
David Gatton
Director
56
2005
Patrick McManus
Director
55
2005
Yunyue Ye
SOURCE:DATAMONITOR
Director
58
2006
DATAMONITOR
Page 8 www.datamonitor.com
325
Table of Contents
Tianfu Yang Mr. Yang has been the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Harbin Electric since 2005. From 2003, he has been the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Harbin Tech Full Electric. From 2000, Mr. Yang has been the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer at Harbin Tech Full Industry. From 1994 to 2000, he was the President at Harbin Tianheng Wood Industry Manufacture. From 1991 to 1994, Mr. Yang was the President at Hong Kong Lianfa Real Estate Company. From 1988 to 1991, he was the President at Hong Kong Property Management Development. From 1986 to 1988, he was the President at Helongjiang Cultural Development Company and Guangzhou Subsidiary Company. Mr. Yang is also the National People's Representative of the City of Harbin. He graduated from Zhejiang University with a Masters degree in Electric Motor Automation and Control. Board: Executive Board Job Title: Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Since: 2005 Age: 48
Christy Y Shue Ms. Shue is the Executive Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations; and Corporate Secretary at Harbin Electric. Prior to joining the company, she was a Vice President and a Senior Investor Relations Consultant at Christensen. Prior to joining Christensen, Ms. Shue was Manager, Investor Relations at International Paper. She holds a PhD in Chemistry from Purdue University and an MBA in Finance business from the Stern School of Business, New York University. She earned her Bachelor of Science degree from Sichuan University, China. Board: Senior Management Job Title: Executive Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations; and Corporate Secretary Age: 46
Page 9 www.datamonitor.com
326
Table of Contents
Kanenori Okawa Mr. Okawa has been the Chief Technology Officer at Harbin Electric since 2007. From 1997 to 2007, he was Chief Technology Advisor at Nittoku Engineering. From 1973 to 1997, Mr. Okawa worked for the Industrial Far East and held various positions including serving as the President from 1978 to 1997. He began his career with Ikegami Tuusinki after he graduated in 1971 with a BS in Electrical Engineering. Board: Senior Management Job Title: Chief Technology Officer Since: 2007
Shaotang Chen Dr. Chen has been the Director, Research and Development, Advanced Automation Group, a subsidiary of Harbin Electric since 2007. From 2000 to 2007, he has been the Staff Research Engineer for Delphi Research Labs. From 2001 to 2003, Dr. Chen was Delphi Research Labs Chief Scientist for Delphi Energenix Center. From 1999 to 2000, he was Senior Research Engineer for Mechatronics Group of Delphi Research Labs. From 1995 to 1999, Dr. Chen was Senior Research Engineer in the Electrical and Electronics Department of General Motors NAO Research and Development Center. He graduated in 1995 from University of Wisconsin-Madison with a PhD in Electrical Engineering. Board: Senior Management Job Title: Director, Research and Development, Advanced Automation Group Since: 2007
Suofei Xu Mr. Xu is the Vice President, Shanghai Tech-Full, a subsidiary of the company. From 2003 until 2008, he was the Vice President at Harbin Tech Full Electric. From 2003 until 2008, Mr. Xu was the Vice President at Harbin Tech Full Industry. From 2001 to 2003, he was an Investment Manager for Shenzhen Capital Group. From 1997 to 2001, he worked at Guangfa Securities as a Project Manager. From 1991 to 1997, Mr. Xu worked as the Section Chief for system allocation reform of the Harbin Economic System Reform Committee. He graduated in 1988 from Fudan University with a BA in Law. Board: Senior Management Job Title: Vice President, Shanghai Tech-Full
Tianli Yang Mr. Yang has been the Vice President at Harbin Electric since 2005. Since 2003, he was the Vice President at Harbin Tech Full Electric. Since 2000, Mr.Yang has been the Vice President at Harbin Tech Full Industry. From 1985 to 2000, he was employed in the China State Construction Engineering Corporation in various positions, including Chief Administration Officer. Mr. Yang graduated from Helongjiang University in 1985 with a BA in Chinese Language and Literature. Board: Senior Management
Company Report, June 2011 Product Code: 732345C1-017F-413B-A6A3-C3DF193F55EB Page 10 www.datamonitor.com
327
Table of Contents
Zedong Xu Mr. Xu has been the Chief Financial Officer at Harbin Electric since 2005. From 2003 until present, he has been the Chief Financial Officer at Harbin Tech Full Electric. Since 2000, Mr. Xu has been the Chief Financial Officer at Harbin Tech Full Industry. From 1998 to 2000, he was employed as the Chief Financial Officer at Harbin WanDa Electrical Home Appliances. From 1996 to 1998, he was a Financial Manager at Harbin High Technology Torch Daya Real Estate. Mr. Xu graduated in 1992 from Harbin Electrical Engineering College with a BA in Project Management. Board: Senior Management Job Title: Chief Financial Officer Since: 2005 Age: 40
Boyd Plowman Mr. Plowman has been a Director at Harbin Electric since October 2009. He is the retired Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Fleetwood Enterprises, Inc. where he was employed from 1969 until 1987 and from 1997 until 2008. During his career with Fleetwood, Mr. Plowman held numerous leadership positions including Controller, Treasurer, and Financial Vice President. During his second stint with Fleetwood, he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer until his retirement in 2008. He also served as President and Chief Executive Officer at Lee & Associates. Prior to that, Mr. Plowman served as a Director and Chairman of the Audit Committee at Corporate Insurance and Reinsurance Company Limited (CIRCL), a Bermuda-based company reinsuring risks for captive insurance companies. He holds a bachelor's degree from Utah State University and was a certified public accountant. Board: Non Executive Board Job Title: Director Since: 2009 Age: 66
Ching Chuen Chan Mr. Chan has been a Director at Harbin Electric since 2005. He is an Honorary Professor at Hong Kong University's Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering. Mr. Chan is a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering, UK, the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the Ukraine Academy of Engineering Sciences and a Fellow and Vice President of Hong Kong Academy of Engineering Sciences. He graduated from Tsing Hua University in 1959 with a Master of Science degree in Electrical Engineering and obtained his PhD in 1982 from University of Hong Kong.
Company Report, June 2011 Product Code: 732345C1-017F-413B-A6A3-C3DF193F55EB Page 11 www.datamonitor.com
328
Table of Contents
Board: Non Executive Board Job Title: Director Since: 2005 Age: 75
David Gatton Mr. Gatton has been a Director at Harbin Electric since 2005. Since 1985, he has served as the Chairman and President of Development Initiatives. Mr. Gatton advises cities, organizations, and companies on business development strategies, public/private partnerships and marketing initiatives. He holds a BA from Cornell College and a Master's degree from Harvard University. Board: Non Executive Board Job Title: Director Since: 2005 Age: 56
Patrick McManus Mr. McManus has been a Director at Harbin Electric since 2005. He brings over 25 years of experience in business, finance and law to Harbin Electric. While serving the City of Lynn as its Mayor, Mr. McManus was elected a Member and Trustee of the Executive Committee of the US Conference of Mayors. He started his career in business at the General Electric Company in 1979, and was a Professor of Business and Finance at Salem State College in Massachusetts. Mr. McManus has been a Certified Public Accountant since 1985. He holds a Juris Doctorate from Boston College Law School and an MBA from Suffolk University. Board: Non Executive Board Job Title: Director Since: 2005 Age: 55
Yunyue Ye Mr. Ye has been a Director at Harbin Electric since 2006. He is currently a Professor in Electrical Engineering at Zhejiang University, where he has taught for the past seven years. Mr. Ye also currently serves as Director at the Aerospace Electric and Electrical Motor Institute of Zhejiang University and Director of the Linear Motor Institute of the Chinese Electro-technical Society. He was also Council Member of the China Electro-technical Society. Mr. Ye graduated from Zhejiang University in 1978. Board: Non Executive Board Job Title: Director
Page 12 www.datamonitor.com
329
Table of Contents
Page 13 www.datamonitor.com
330
Table of Contents
Page 14 www.datamonitor.com
331
Table of Contents
Page 15 www.datamonitor.com
332
Page 16 www.datamonitor.com
333
Deal Volume 1
DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
Page 17 www.datamonitor.com
334
Figure 2: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Deal Activity by Deal Type - Volume (2007 - YTD*2011)
Figure 3: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Average Deal Size - Value (US$m)
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
Table 4: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Deal Activity by Deal Type - Volume (2007 - YTD*2011) Deal Type ACQ CR CV DIV Pship PE Total 2007 1 1 2 2008 1 2 3 2009 1 1 2 2010 1 1 2011 -
Table 5: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Average Deal Size Value (US$m) Year 2007 Deal Volume 1 1 1 Average Deal Size (US$m) 11 54 DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
*ACQ = Acquisition; CR = Capital Raising; CV = Corporate Venturing; DIV = Divestment; Pship = Partnership; PE =Private Equity & Ownership
Page 18 www.datamonitor.com
335
Deal Headline
Deal Type
Deal Date
Acquisition
Harbin Electric acquires Weihai Hengda Electric Acquisition Motor Harbin Electric acquires Harbin Taifu Auto Electric Harbin forms joint venture with Shelton Technology LLC Acquisition
54
11
Partnership
DATAMONITOR
Page 19 www.datamonitor.com
336
Deal Headline Tianfu Yang and Baring Private Equity to acquire remaining 69.9% stake in Harbin Electric
Deal Date
Deal Status
Deal Type
11 Oct 2010
Announced
Private Equity
746
19 Oct 2009
Completed
Acquisition
Harbin Electric raises $100 million through public offering Harbin Electric acquires Weihai Hengda Electric Motor Harbin Electric completes $49.45 million private placement Harbin Electric completes $49.5 million private placment Harbin Electric acquires Harbin Taifu Auto Electric Harbin forms joint venture with Shelton Technology LLC
05 Aug 2009
Completed
IPO
100
15 Jul 2008
Completed
Acquisition
54
26 Jun 2008
Completed
49
26 Jun 2008
Completed
50
12 Jul 2007
Completed
Acquisition
11
13 Apr 2007
Announced
Partnership
SOURCE:DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
Page 20 www.datamonitor.com
337
Table 8: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Legal Advisor Ranking by Value (US$m) Company Name Reed Smith LLP
SOURCE:DATAMONITOR
Deal Volume 1
Table 9: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Financial Advisor Ranking by Value (US$m) Company Name Morgan Stanley ROTH Capital Partners, LLC Houlihan Lokey, Inc. Houlihan Lokey Howard & Zukin Financial Advisors, Inc.
SOURCE:DATAMONITOR
Deal Volume 1 1 1 1
Page 21 www.datamonitor.com
338
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
Table 10: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
Table 11: Harbin Electric, Inc.: M&A Activity by Geography (2007 - YTD*2011) Geography Asia-Pacific Europe Middle East and Africa North America South and Central America
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
Deal Volume 1 1 1 -
Page 22 www.datamonitor.com
339
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
Table 12: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Capital Raising Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
Table 13: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Capital Raising by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) Deal Type Private Placement Public Offering
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
Deal Volume 2 1 -
Deal Volume 2 1
DATAMONITOR
Page 23 www.datamonitor.com
340
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
Table 14: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Partnership Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) Deal Value (US$m) DATAMONITOR
Table 15: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Partnership Trend by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) Deal Type Joint Venture
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
Deal Volume 1 -
Deal Volume 1
DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
Page 24 www.datamonitor.com
341
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
Table 16: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Private Equity and Ownership Volume and Value Trend (2007 - YTD*2011) Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
Table 17: Harbin Electric, Inc.: Private Equity and Ownership Volume by Deal Type (2007 - YTD*2011) Deal Type Private Equity
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
Deal Volume 1 -
Deal Volume 1
DATAMONITOR
Page 25 www.datamonitor.com
342
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
SOURCE: DATAMONITOR
DATAMONITOR
*YTD The period beginning January 1st of the current year up until today's date.
Page 26 www.datamonitor.com
343
Appendix
Appendix
Contact Us
We hope that the data and analysis in this brief will help you make informed and imaginative business decisions. If you have further requirements feedback please contact us at: cpqueries@datamonitor.com For further information on Datamonitor and our range of business information services please visit www.datamonitor.com
Methodology
Datamonitor company reports are prepared under an established and tested methodology which ensures proper checks and controls to capture and validate the quality and accuracy of data. The information is primarily sourced through: Company Annual Reports Company Analyst Relations Company websites SEC filings (10-K, 20-F, 10-Q etc) Media releases Investors presentations Datamonitor proprietary databases
Page 27 www.datamonitor.com
344
Appendix
About Datamonitor
The Datamonitor Group is an independent, premium business information and market analysis company that assists clients with operational and strategic decision-making. As a world-leading provider of premium global business information, Datamonitor delivers independent data, analysis and opinion across the Automotive, Consumer Packaged Goods, Energy & Sustainability, Financial Services, Logistics & Express, Pharmaceutical & Healthcare, Retail, Sourcing, Technology and Telecoms industries. We combine our industry knowledge and experience to assist over 6000 of the worlds leading companies in making better strategic and operational decisions Delivered online via our user-friendly web platforms, our market intelligence products and services ensure that you will achieve your desired commercial goals by giving you the insight you need to best respond to your competitive environment. The Datamonitor Groups research and analysis products are compiled by an extensive global network of researchers, in-house analysts and industry specialists. We collect our own data through an extensive global network using audited methodologies. We monitor more than 75,000 business including company websites, key business publications and stock market sites round-the-clock to provide you with powerful business insights and real time updates. This is further supported and substantiated by our global primary research team engaged in producing original analysis covering key verticals. The Datamonitor Group's consulting team offers a customized research and analysis service, addressing specialized research requirements of clients. Datamonitor is headquartered in London, and has 20 regional offices in Manchester, Hull, Paris, Hyderabad, Dubai, Durban, Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Seoul, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Beijing, Taipei, New York, Boston, Chicago, Scranton, Canandaigua and Silicon Valley.
Page 28 www.datamonitor.com
345
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
China June 21, 2011
Closing Price (6/20/11): 12-Month Target Price: 52-Week Range: Market Cap (MM): Shares O/S (MM): Float (MM): Shares Short (MM): Avg. Vol. (000) Book Value/Share: Dividend/Yield: Risk Profile: Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Maxim Group FYE: December 2009A: GAAP 2010A: GAAP 2011E: GAAP 2012E: GAAP LT Earnings Growth $13.35 $24 $5.82 - $25.05 $419.2 31.4 14.4 8.3 1,244 $19.60 NA Medium Revenues ($M) 2011E 2012E $103.8A $122.1 $112.2 $134.7 $123.0 $140.4 $131.6 $150.4 $470.7 $547.6 Current Current EPS P/E $0.77 17.3 $2.46 5.4 $2.14 6.2 $2.67 5.0 10% - 15% GAAP Quarterly EPS
Buy
Definitive agreement announced as expected; SEC approval up next; Reiterate Buy and $24 price target
Definitive merger agreement reached. Yesterday, HRBN announced that it has entered into a definitive, binding merger agreement with the acquisition vehicle owned by HRBNs chairman Tianfu Yang, with a termination date of March 8, 2012. HRBN and the acquisition vehicle have termination penalties of $22.5M and $30M, respectively. The $30M termination fee of the acquisition vehicle is guaranteed by Mr. Yang and his partner, Abax Global Capital (Abax). Filed with the merger agreement was an investment commitment letter from Abax to contribute $38.8M to purchase HRBNs common shares and a note purchase agreement for Abax to purchase $25M senior notes of HRBN. Abaxs equity and debt investments combined with the $400M debt financing from China Development Bank (CDB, please refer to our report published on June 10, 2011) formed a complete LBO syndication. In our view, the company and buying parties have made solid efforts along the LBO process. With the necessary documents submitted to the SEC, we believe the next step will be the SEC approving the acquisition. The shareholder voting should come after the SECs approval. With the current share price trading at a substantial discount to the offering price, we believe it should not be difficult for the company to gather a majority of votes among the minority holders (excluding 40.6% outstanding shares owned by buying parties) for the current LBO. That said, we wont be surprised if SEC takes a few months to reach a decision. We believe it is reasonable for the company to expect the deal to close in 4Q11. We still believe the wide gap between the current share price and the LBO offering price provides buying opportunities. Although HRBNs share price appreciated nearly $5/share (or $60%) during yesterdays trading, there is still a significant gap over a 40% discount to the $24/share offer price. Again, we believe this is mainly due to the over-generalized distrust among Chinese companies, as well as the fear that additional negative publicity regarding HRBN may cause the share price to drop. We maintain our thesis on a likely successful LBO and reiterate our Buy rating and $24 price target, which is based on the reaffirmed LBO offer price. Meanwhile, we warn investors about the high volatility of HRBNs shares the trading gap to our price target could further widen before narrowing.
Maxim Group Current Current FYE: December 2011E 2012E 1Q $0.34A $0.58 2Q $0.48 $0.66 3Q $0.63 $0.70 4Q $0.68 $0.74 FY $2.14 $2.67 Consensus-First Call Quarterly EPS FYE: December 2011E 2012E 1Q $0.34A $0.58 2Q $0.50 $0.66 3Q $0.62 $0.70 4Q $0.66 $0.74 $2.12 $2.78 FY Echo He, MD, PhD ehe@maximgrp.com (212) 895-3718
Maxim Group LLC 405 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10174 www.maximgrp.com
SEE PAGES 4-6 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS 346
Chinese Industrial Companies China Automotive CAAS A-Power APWR FushiCopperweld FSIN Lihua International LIWA Shengdatech SDTH Wonder Auto WATG ChemSpec CPC China Gerui Adv. Materia CHOP SORL Auto Parts SORL Average HK Listed China Motor Companies Harbin Power Equipment 1133-HK Shanghai Electric Group 2727-HK Dongfang Electric Group 1072-HK Chongqing Machinery & E2722-HK Shanghai Prime Machine 2345-HK Average
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
China Mainland Listed China Motor Companies Xiangtan Electric 600416-SH $ 1.70 Zhejiang Founder Motor 002196-SZ $ 2.25 BroadOcean 002249-SZ $ 3.05 Jiangte Electric Motor 002176-SZ $ 3.19 Shanghai Electric Group 601727-SH $ 1.03 Dongfang Electric Group 600875-SH $ 3.61 Average
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ -$
US/International Motor Companies Siemens SI $ 131.08 $ 113,873 ABB ABB $ 24.63 $ 56,403 Emerson Electric EMR $ 52.83 $ 39,790 Illinois Tool Works ITW $ 54.62 $ 27,445 Cummins CMI $ 93.48 $ 18,472 Magna International MGA $ 48.18 $ 5,433 Rockwell Automation ROK $ 79.79 $ 11,378 Lear Corporation LEA $ 47.84 $ 2,234 Regal Beloit RBC $ 64.27 $ 2,474 Smith AO AOS $ 40.50 $ 1,236 Franklin Electric FELE $ 43.50 $ 1,012 Average Source: Thomson One, Bloomberg and Maxim Group estimates.
$ 6.09 $ 1.25 $ 2.69 $ 3.08 $ 5.17 $ 4.34 $ 3.05 $ 4.42 n/a $ 2.87 $ 1.94
$ 11.49 $ 1.56 $ 3.27 $ 3.95 $ 8.01 $ 5.08 $ 4.58 $ 5.23 n/a $ 2.10 $ 2.50
$ 10.71 $ 1.91 $ 3.87 $ 4.61 $ 9.69 $ 5.56 $ 5.44 $ 5.97 n/a -$ 2.46 $ 2.89
21.5x 19.7x 19.6x 17.7x 18.1x 11.1x 26.2x 10.8x -14.1x 22.4x 18.1x
11.4x 15.8x 16.2x 13.8x 11.7x 9.5x 17.4x 9.2x -19.3x 17.4x 14.2x
12.2x 12.9x 13.7x 11.9x 9.7x 8.7x 14.7x 8.0x 16.5x 15.1x 12.3x
347
4.9 (2.3) 2.6 52.9% (0.1) 1.9% (0.2) 3.8% (0.3) 2.3 47.1% 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0% 2.3 0.0% 2.3 47.6% 2.2 6.4 6.4 0.36 0.36 0.1 2.4 48.6% 8.28
23.6 $ 387% (12.1) 11.6 350% 48.9% (0.3) 1.4% (1.3) 5.3% (1.6) 10.0 42.1% 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0% 10.0 0.0% 10.0 333% 42.3% 0.5 11.1 14.9 15.1
40.4 $ 71% (20.8) 19.7 70% 48.6% (1.5) 3.7% (4.2) 10.3% (5.7) 14.0 34.6% 0.0 (2.5) 4.4 18.4 0.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 84% 45.6% 1.0 19.5 16.6 18.3
19.8 20.1 19.3 17.0 76.3 19.3 18.1 19.3 20.4 77.2 86.8 60% 74% 18% -14% 27% -3% -10% 0% 20% 1% 12% 56% 19% 19% 18% 16% 18% 19% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 18.3 16.2 15.2 15.3 14.0 60.8 15.5 14.7 15.3 16.1 61.7 67.9 166% 78% 81% -18% 51% -4% (3.0%) 0% 15% 2% 10% 28% 15% 14% 14% 13% 14% 15% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 22.5 23.6 23.5 23.7 93.2 21.8 25.9 27.0 30.8 105.5 125.7 107% 39% 14% 3% 31% -3% 10% 15% 30% 13% 19% 0% 21% 22% 21% 22% 22% 21% 23% 22% 23% 22% 23% 45.0 44.6 48.9 49.9 188.5 46.3 51.3 58.7 62.4 218.7 258.9 13% 6% 11% 12% 11% 3% 15% 20% 25% 16% 18% 0% 0% 20% 43% 42% 45% 47% 44% 45% 46% 48% 47% 46% 47% 65.4 $ 120.8 $ 223.2 $ 105.5 $ 105.4 $ 109.4 $ 106.2 $ 426.5 $ 103.8 $ 112.2 $ 123.0 $ 131.6 $ 470.7 $ 547.6 62% 85% 85% 243% 175% 133% -1% 91% (1.6%) 6% 12% 24% 10% 16% (33.0) (73.3) (146.6) (69.7) (70.1) (75.8) (75.1) (290.8) (73.6) (80.4) (87.6) (94.1) (335.7) (391.9) 32.4 65% 49.6% (1.1) 1.6% (7.7) 11.7% (8.7) 23.7 36.3% (0.2) (6.6) (6.8) 16.9 0.0% 16.9 0.0% 16.9 (8%) 25.8% 7.2 13.2 17.1 18.6 47.5 46% 39.3% (1.2) 1.0% (11.9) 9.9% (13.1) 34.4 45% 28.5% 1.6 (6.1) (4.5) 29.9 (4.5) 15.1% 25.4 0.0% 25.4 50% 21.0% 9.5 40.0 20.2 21.3 76.6 61% 34.3% (2.1) 0.9% (18.7) 8.4% (20.8) 55.8 62% 25.0% 5.5 (12.3) (24.9) 30.9 (7.8) 25.2% 23.1 (3.5) 11.3% 19.6 (23%) 8.8% (0.1) 16.3 25.6 25.7 35.7 227% 33.9% (0.6) 0.6% (7.4) 7.0% (8.0) 27.7 246% 26.3% 1.1 (1.6) (0.8) 27.0 (4.1) 15.1% 22.9 (2.4) 8.7% 20.6 137% 19.5% 0.1 20.6 31.1 31.4 0.66 $ 0.66 $ 68% 3.3 0.3 31.3 6.84 35.3 175% 33.5% (0.4) 0.3% (6.9) 6.5% (7.2) 28.1 219% 26.6% 1.3 (1.0) 1.4 29.5 (3.8) 12.9% 25.7 (0.0) 0.0% 25.7 NM 24.4% 1.3 27.0 31.1 31.3 0.83 $ 0.82 $ NM 2.8 0.3 31.1 6.84 33.6 100% 30.7% (1.7) 1.5% (10.1) 9.2% (11.7) 21.9 68% 20.0% 0.7 (1.1) (0.7) 21.2 (3.3) 15.6% 17.9 (0.0) 0.1% 17.9 NM 16.3% 5.6 23.5 31.1 31.3 31.1 -14% 29.2% (0.8) 0.8% (14.6) 13.8% (15.4) 15.6 (39.7%) 14.7% 2.3 (0.8) 0.9 16.6 (3.8) 22.7% 12.8 (0.1) 0.4% 12.7 -31% 12.0% 6.7 19.4 31.1 31.3 135.7 77% 31.8% (3.4) 0.8% (39.0) 9.1% (42.4) 93.3 67% 21.9% 5.5 (4.6) 0.8 94.2 (14.9) 15.8% 79.2 (2.4) 2.6% 76.8 291% 18.0% 13.7 90.5 31.1 31.3 30.2 (15%) 29.1% (3.9) 3.7% (10.1) 9.7% (14.0) 16.3 (41%) 15.7% 1.1 (1.9) (1.2) 15.0 (4.2) 27.9% 10.8 (0.0) 0.1% 10.8 (47.4%) 10.4% 2.4 13.3 31.3 31.4 31.9 -10% 28.4% (1.3) 1.2% (10.3) 9.2% (11.7) 20.2 (28%) 18.0% 1.2 (1.9) (1.2) 19.1 (3.8) 20.0% 15.2 0.0% 15.2 (40.6%) 13.6% 15.2 31.3 31.4 35.4 5% 28.8% (1.2) 1.0% (9.0) 7.3% (10.2) 25.2 15% 20.5% 1.3 (1.9) (1.0) 24.1 (4.3) 18.0% 19.8 0.0% 19.8 11% 16.1% 19.8 31.4 31.5 0.63 $ 0.63 $ 10% 2.9 0.1 28.2 6.51 37.5 21% 28.5% (1.3) 1.0% (9.5) 7.2% (10.8) 26.7 71% 20.3% 1.4 (1.9) (0.9) 25.8 (4.4) 17.0% 21.4 0.0% 21.4 69% 16.3% 21.4 31.4 31.6 135.0 -1% 28.7% (7.8) 1.7% (38.9) 8.3% (46.6) 88.4 -5% 18.8% 5.1 (7.7) (4.4) 84.0 (16.7) 19.9% 67.3 (0.0) 0.0% 67.3 -12% 14.3% 67.3 31.3 31.5 155.7 15% 28.4% (4.4) 0.8% (41.3) 7.5% (45.7) 109.9 24% 20.1% 5.5 (7.7) (4.0) 106.0 (21.2) 20.0% 84.8 0.0% 84.8 26% 15.5% 84.8 31.6 31.7 2.68 2.67 25% 14.7 1.3 125.9 23.0% 6.36
60.3 22% 27% 40.2 19% 18% 71.4 157% 23% 32% $ 44.5
$ $
1.11 $ 0.99 $ 1.01 $ 0.91 $ 53% (10%) 2.2 6.2 0.9 1.6 17.1 42.3% 7.80 31.4 48.1% 7.30
1.25 $ 0.77 $ 1.19 $ 0.77 $ 31% (35.7%) 7.7 17.0 1.8 1.2 43.8 36.3% 6.83 74.1 33.2% 6.84
0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.47 $ 0.35 $ 0.49 $ 0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.46 $ 0.34 $ 0.48 $ NM -25% 221% (47.4%) (40.8%) 3.1 2.3 11.5 2.9 2.9 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 25.2 6.84 18.2 6.60 105.8 24.8% 6.76 19.3 6.57 23.2 6.54
0.68 $ 2.15 $ 0.68 $ 2.14 $ 54% -13% 2.9 11.5 0.1 0.4 29.7 6.48 100.4 21.3% 6.48
348
Source: Investars.com
As of:
% of Coverage Universe
6/21/2011
% of Ratings that Firm received Banking fees 24.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Performance* Buy Hold Sell Expected total return of 15% or more over next 12 months Expected total return of plus or minus 14% over next 12 months Expected total negative return of at least 15% over next 12 months
* Relative to Nasdaq Composite. An Under Review (UR) rating represents a stock that the Firm has temporarily placed under review due to a material change.
Maxim Group makes a market in Harbin Electric, Inc. Maxim Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Harbin Electric, Inc. in the next 3 months.
I, Echo He, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firms total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. Valuation Methods: One or more of the following valuation methods are used by Maxim Group analysts in making a ratings or price projection: Analysis of companies P/E ratio, price/book ratio, earnings expectations or sales growth as they relate within an industry group or to the broader market, enterprise value/sales, Individual sector analysis, sum of the parts analysis and discounted cash flow.
349
RISK RATINGS
Risk ratings take into account both fundamental criteria and price volatility. Speculative Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to early-stage companies with minimal to no revenues, lack of earnings, balance sheet concerns, and/or a short operating history. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be significantly above the industry. Price Volatility: Because of the inherent fundamental criteria of the companies falling within this risk category, the price volatility is expected to be significant with the possibility that the investment could eventually be worthless. Speculative stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. High Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies having below-average revenue and earnings visibility, negative cash flow, and low market cap or public float. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be above the industry. Price volatility: The price volatility of companies falling within this category is expected to be above the industry. High-risk stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. Medium Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to approximate the industry average. Low Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have above-average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to be below the industry.
350
351
Mark Tobin, (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Kun Tao, CFA, (949) 720-7149 ktao@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA, ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
China
U.S.-Listed China - Privatization, PE Investment, & Dual-Listing (4th Edition)
This report provides an update on the activity within the U.S.-listed China sector related to privatization, PE investment, and dual-listing. It includes a table providing details for each company pursuing privatization. PRIVATIZATION UPDATE There are currently eight companies that have privatization activities ongoing, three completed transactions, and one transaction that was abandoned. The attached tables includes relevant details for each. Since our last edition on this topic (dated May 26, 2011), there have been several noteworthy events, including the signing of definitive agreements for two of the transactions (FTLK, HRBN). We have expanded our tables to include additional information which we believe is valuable for deal tracking and assessment.
s
May 31, 2011 - FTLK buyout reached definitive agreement, offer price increased to $7.20 from $7.10. The buying group has ~77.1% ownership. The deal is currently pending shareholder vote and expected to close by the end of Q3' 2011. FTLK filed its initial SC 13E3 on June 14, 2011. June 10, 2011 - CFSG filed its initial SC 13E3 with going-private transaction details. No material change in terms since last update. June 13, 2011 - PUDA announced that its Independent Committee has retained Cowen and Company, LLC and Morgan Joseph TriArtisan LLC as financial advisors. Shares have been halted since April 11, 2011. June 13, 2011 - CISG's board special committee has retained Duff & Phelps, LLC as its independent financial advisor, O'Melveny & Myers LLP as its United States legal counsel and Walkers as its Cayman Islands legal counsel. June 20, 2011 - HRBN announced the signing of a definitive agreement; offer price remains $24. The deal is now pending shareholder vote and expected to close in Q4'2011. According to related filings, the buyer group has a 40.6% stake in the Company, funding will be from (i) term loan $400M from CDB, (ii) $25M secured notes issued to Abax and (iii) $38.8M equity financing from Abax.
PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTMENT We believe there continues to be high interest from the PE community (particularly in Asia) for investing in certain U.S.-listed Chinese companies, via open market purchases and/or private placements. We believe PE investments, particularly from brand-name firms, can serve as positive catalysts, providing needed capital as well as validation for companies. On June 9th, YONG closed a $50M investment by Morgan Stanley Private Equity Asia (initially announced on May 31st). In connection with the transaction, Homer Sun, MD of MSPE Asia, will join YONG's BoD. DUAL-LISTING ON HONG KONG STOCK EXCHANGE For the companies that have announced intent to dual-list shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (CHC, COGO, HOLI), we believe the process remains in the early stages for each. With the current wide valuation discrepancy for small-cap Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges versus those on the Hong Kong exchange, we believe dual-listing is a viable approach for certain companies to unlock value, particularly for those like CHC that have a large number of comparable companies listed in HK.
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 4 to 4 of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 24 Corporate Plaza | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
352
CHINA
Summary of On-going Deals CNinsure CISG TPG Asia, Chairman & CEO, CDH Inservice Chemspec International CPC Chairman & CEO, Primavera China Fire & Security CFSG Bain Capital (Management's 59.1% stake agreed to vote for the agreement) Mar-07-2011 59.1% $9.00 $6.26 44% --17.3x 16.4x $7.91 (12.1%) China Security & Surveillance Technology CSR Chairman & CEO Funtalk China FTLK Chairman & CEO (key mgt), ARCH, Capital Ally, GM Investment Mar-25-2011 77.1% $7.10 $6.15 15% May-31-2011 $7.20 8.4x 8.7x $6.72 (6.7%) Fushi Copperweld FSIN Chariman & CEO, Abax Global Capital
(4)
Announcement Date Pre-deal Buyer/mgt Ownership % Bid Price per Share or ADS Price 1-Day Prior to Announcement Premium (1) Price Revision Date Revised Price P/E (TTM) (2) P/E (NTM) (2) Current Price (06/20/2011) Current Discount to Bid Price Status
May-16-2011 34.3% $19.00 $13.16 44% --15.0x 13.3x $13.97 (26.5%) Under board review
Nov-11-2010 55.0% $8.00 $6.32 28% Mar-21-2011 $8.10 9.0x 8.2x $7.00 (13.6%) Board approved, pending shareholder vote; Expected to close by the end of Q3'11 Standard Chartered US$ 70M Mar-21-2011 May-03-2011
Board approved, pending Board approved, pending shareholder vote; shareholder vote; Expected to close by Nov 15, 2011 BofA, Citi, HSBC US$ 80M May-20-2011 Jun-10-2011 China Development Bank US$ 500M Apr-20-2011 May-31-2011
Board approved, pending Under board review shareholder vote; Expected to close by the end of Q3' 2011 PAG Asia Capital (3) US$ 150M May-31-2011 Jun-14-2011 N/A Pending N/A
Board approved, pending Under board review; shareholder vote; Shares halted since Apr 11, Expected to close in Q4' 2011 2011 China Development Bank: US$ 400M Abax: US$25M (5) Jun-20-2011 N/A >50% total & >50% of disinterested shares N/A Morgan Stanley & Co. / Lazard Freres & Co. LLC
Voting Threshold
N/A
>50% total & >75% total & >2/3 of voting shares at EGM >50% of disinterested shares >50% of disinterested shares 75.8% Barclays Capital PE not involved Imperial Capital, LLC 77.7% Bank of America Merrill Lynch
N/A
N/A
N/A Duff & Phelps, LLC O'Melveny & Myers LLP and Walkers
27.2% Houlihan Lokey Shearman & Sterling LLP / Maples and Calder
N/A Cowen and Company, LLC / Morgan Joseph TriArtisan LLC Not disclosed
Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP / Maples Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP and Calder
Premium of bid price above the closing price on previous trading day before announcement (2) Valuation multiples are calculated as of deal announcement date; data sourced from ROTH research if companies are covered, or Bloomberg if otherwise; NA indicates not available, NM indicates not meaningful (3) US$ 150M investment in convertible preferred shares (4) PUDA stock halted since April 11, 2011, lastest available close price is $6.00 (5) According to SC 13D filed June 20, 2011, the source of fund will from (i) term loan $400M from CDB, (ii) $25M secured notes issued to Abax, and (iii) $38.8M equity financing from Abax Source: Company Filings, Bloomberg, ROTH Capital Partners
Page 2 of 4
353
CHINA
Summary of Completed or Abandoned Deals BMP Sunstone BJGP Sanofi-Aventis Buyers (as announced)
Announcement Date Pre-deal Buyer/mgt Ownership % Bid Price per Share or ADS Price 1-Day Prior to Announcement Premium (1) P/E (TTM) (3) P/E (NTM) (3) Status
Oct-28-2010 23.0% $10.00 $7.66 31% 125.0x 90.9x Completed on Feb 24, 2011
Qiao Xing Mobile (2) QXM Parent Company Qiao Xing Universal Resources, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING) Sep-09-2010 61.0% $3.92 $3.55 10% NM NA Abandoned due to lack of quorum in shareholder meeting on Apr 7, 2011 Not involved Jan-03-2011 Oct-22-2010 >50% of disinterested voting shareholders representing >75% of voting disinterested shares Not involved Not disclosed Not disclosed
Tongjitang Chinese Medicines Sinoenergy TCM SNEN Skywide Capital Management Hanmax (controlled by CEO) / CEO & Director (owned by management) Fosun Oct-12-2009 39.1% $1.90 $1.28 48% NM NA Completed on Sep 29, 2010 Apr-08-2010 83.0% $4.50 $3.78 19% NM 18.0x Completed on Apr 15, 2011 Mar-10-2008 39.2% $10.20 $6.60 55% NM 11.3x Withdrawn on Jun 27, 2008
Debt/Convertible Financing Board Approval/Signing Definitive Agreement Initial Filing of SC 13E3 Voting Threshold Post-deal Private Equity Ownership Board Financial Advisor Board Legal Advisor
(1) (2)
CITIC Bank US$ 25M Nov-01-2010 Nov-26-2010 >50% of shareholders representing >75% of voting shares Not involved Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Sheppard, Mullin, Richter & Hampton LLP / Thorp Alberga
Not involved Brean Murray, Carret & Co. Arent Fox LLP
Premium of bid price above the closing price on previous trading day before announcement The offer price is 1.9 shares of XING common stock plus $0.8 in cash, we convert to dollar value using XING's closing price on Sept-8-2010 (3) Valuation multiples are calculated as of deal announcement date; data sourced from ROTH research if companies are covered, or Bloomberg if otherwise; NA indicates not available, NM indicates not meaningful Source: Company Filings, Bloomberg, ROTH Capital Partners
Page 3 of 4
354
CHINA
Disclosures:
ROTH and/or its employees, officers, directors and owners own options, rights or warrants to purchase shares of Fushi Copperweld, Inc. stock. Within the last twelve months, ROTH has received compensation for investment banking services from Funtalk China Holdings Limited. ROTH makes a market in shares of China Fire & Security Group, Inc., Cogo Group, Inc., Fushi Copperweld, Inc., Funtalk China Holdings Limited, Hollysys Automation Technologies, Harbin Electric, Inc. and Yongye International, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. Within the last twelve months, ROTH has managed or co-managed a public offering for Funtalk China Holdings Limited. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral. On May 26, 2011, ROTH changed its rating system in order to incorporate coverage that is Under Review.
Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 06/21/11 Count Percent 45 22.8 5 8.9 0 0 0 0
Rating Buy [B] Neutral [N] Sell [S] Under Review [UR]
Count 197 56 2 0
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Under Review [UR]: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, indicates the temporary removal of the prior rating, price target and estimates for the security. Prior rating, price target and estimates should no longer be relied upon for UR-rated securities. Not Covered [NC]: ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the express written permission of ROTH. Copyright 2011. Member: FINRA/SIPC.
Page 4 of 4
355
Mark Tobin, (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Steve Chen, schen@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA, ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
| HRBN - $8.39 - NASDAQ | Buy CORRECTED - HRBN: Enters Into Definitive Merger Agreement
This morning, HRBN announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired for $24 per share by a buying group consisting of its Chairman, Tianfu Yang, and Abax Global Capital. The board approved and adopted the agreement, which is now subject to shareholder vote. The transaction is expected to close in 4Q11.
Pro-forma EPS for all periods Revenue ($ millions) Yr Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q YEAR 2010 105.5A 105.4A 109.4A 106.2A 426.5A 2011E Curr 103.8A 115.3E 126.7E 131.1E 476.8E 2012E Curr 578.3E
Merger agreement. HRBN entered into a definitive merger agreement with a buying group consisting of its Chairman, Tianfu Yang, and Abax Global Capital. The key aspects of the transaction are below: s $24 per share in cash without interest s BoD approved and adopted the merger agreement s Closing subject to shareholder vote (majority in combined voting power of the outstanding shares not owned by the Purchasing Group) s Expected to close in 4Q11 s Secured debt financing from China Development Bank Corporation Hong Kong Branch; Abax has issued an equity commitment letter Next steps. The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions. The company will file a proxy statement (Form 14) and Schedule 13E-3 with the SEC; followed by a shareholder vote. Once completed, the merger will result in the company becoming privately-held and shares will no longer be listed on any public market. Shares set to open up strongly, but still at a substantial discount to offer price. Pre-market trading indicates that HRBN continues to trade at a substantial discount to the offer price. The current discount is the widest of any of the U.S.-listed Chinese companies that have reached the definitive agreement stage (CFSG, CPC, CSR, FTLK).
30 25 20 15 10 5
Aug-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
May-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jun-11
Apr-11
Jul-10
Price
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 3 to 4 of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 24 Corporate Plaza | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
356
VALUATION
Our $24 PT is based on the offer price of the proposed buy-out. Factors that may impede HRBN shares from reaching our price target include: s There are still numerous steps in the privatization process, some of which could lead to delays in completing the transaction. s A slow-down in China''s economic growth and continued inflation could impact sales and compress margins.
RISKS
Change in macro policies in China. Two of HRBN's major catalysts, oil pump for oilfield and linear motors for urban metro lines, can be largely affected by central and local government policies. The development of urban railways can experience delays that out of control of HRBN, such as delay in construction. Volatile raw materials costs HRBN is subject to market fluctuations and volatility of two major raw materials, copper and steel respectively.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Harbin Electric, Inc. develops, engineers, manufactures and sells an array of industrial electric motors, customized linear motors, controller automation systems, automobile specialty micro-motors, and other special motors. The Company operates, through its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Harbin Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd (HTFE). The Company offers three key product lines: industrial electric motors, linear motors and their integrated application systems, and automobile specialty micro-motors.
Page 2 of 4
357
Disclosures:
Within the last twelve months, ROTH has received compensation for investment banking services from Funtalk China Holdings Limited. ROTH makes a market in shares of Harbin Electric, Inc., China Fire & Security Group, Inc. and Funtalk China Holdings Limited and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. Within the last twelve months, ROTH has managed or co-managed a public offering for Funtalk China Holdings Limited. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral. On May 26, 2011, ROTH changed its rating system in order to incorporate coverage that is Under Review.
Page 3 of 4
358
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 06/20/11 Count Percent 45 22.8 5 8.9 0 0 0 0
Rating Buy [B] Neutral [N] Sell [S] Under Review [UR]
Count 197 56 2 0
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Under Review [UR]: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, indicates the temporary removal of the prior rating, price target and estimates for the security. Prior rating, price target and estimates should no longer be relied upon for UR-rated securities. Not Covered [NC]: ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the express written permission of ROTH. Copyright 2011. Member: FINRA/SIPC.
Page 4 of 4
359
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
China June 10, 2011
Closing Price (6/9/11): 12-Month Target Price: 52-Week Range: Market Cap (MM): Shares O/S (MM): Float (MM): Shares Short (MM): Avg. Vol. (000) Book Value/Share: Dividend/Yield: Risk Profile: Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Maxim Group FYE: December 2009A: GAAP 2010A: GAAP 2011E: GAAP 2012E: GAAP LT Earnings Growth $15.48 $24 $13.34 - $25.05 $486.1 31.4 14.4 7.5 783 $19.60 NA Medium Revenues ($M) 2011E 2012E $103.8A $122.1 $112.2 $134.7 $123.0 $140.4 $131.6 $150.4 $470.7 $547.6 Current Current EPS P/E $0.77 20.1 $2.46 6.3 $2.14 7.2 $2.67 5.8 10% - 15% GAAP Quarterly EPS
Buy
$400M term loan available; HRBN has made significant progress on LBO; Reiterate Buy rating and $24 price target
The largest piece of LBO financing is now officially available. Yesterday, the buying parties of HRBNs ongoing LBO, including the Chairman Tianfu Yang and Abax Global Capital (Abax), filed a 13D to announce that they entered into a $400M term loan agreement with China Development Bank (CDB) to fund the buyout of HRBNs publicly held outstanding shares, which we believe totals around 19M shares. We have learned that the loan is collateralized by HRBNs entire asset or equity ownership. The agreed-upon interest rate is LIBOR + 3.5% in the first three years, and LIBOR + 4.5% thereafter. HRBN will start to repay the loan three years after it is issued, at 20% of total principal each year for five years, or after its successful relisting. We believe that $400M is sufficient to buy ~85% of the outstanding shares. The purchase of the remaining shares should be funded by Abax and other investors, with an aggregated amount of $67M in the form of both equity and debt financing. We believe this is an important step forward for the ongoing LBO. In our view, the following steps should include, at least: (1) a contract signing for the minor financing of $67M; (2) signing the LBO agreement with the board of HRBN; and (3) collecting votes from public shareholders. With the major financing secured, we believe HRBNs buyers have overcome the most difficult hurdle on the LBO track, but the rest of the journey may also take a longerthan-expected time due to the lack of LBO precedents in China, as well as extra cautions among board members under negative market headwinds. Wide gap to LBO offering price provides buying opportunities. We believe the markets lack of response to the significantly positive news is mainly due to the over-generalized distrust of Chinese companies, as well as the fear that the negative publicity regarding HRBN may prevent its appreciation. Per our knowledge, the buying parties are seriously motivated to carry the LBO process forward within a reasonable time frame. Therefore, we believe this wide gap of more than 30% between the current stock price and the LBOs offering price of $24/share creates a buying opportunity. We maintain our thesis on a likely successful LBO and reiterate our Buy rating.
Maxim Group Current Current FYE: December 2011E 2012E 1Q $0.34A $0.58 2Q $0.48 $0.66 3Q $0.63 $0.70 4Q $0.68 $0.74 FY $2.14 $2.67 Consensus-First Call Quarterly EPS FYE: December 2011E 2012E 1Q $0.34A $0.58 2Q $0.50 $0.66 3Q $0.62 $0.70 4Q $0.66 $0.74 $2.12 $2.78 FY Echo He, MD, PhD ehe@maximgrp.com (212) 895-3718
Maxim Group LLC 405 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10174 www.maximgrp.com
SEE PAGES 4-6 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS 360
Chinese Industrial Companies China Automotive CAAS A-Power APWR FushiCopperweld FSIN Lihua International LIWA Shengdatech SDTH Wonder Auto WATG ChemSpec CPC China Gerui Adv. Material CHOP SORL Auto Parts SORL Average HK Listed China Motor Companies Harbin Power Equipment 1133-HK Shanghai Electric Group 2727-HK Dongfang Electric Group 1072-HK Chongqing Machinery & E2722-HK Shanghai Prime Machiner2345-HK Average
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
China Mainland Listed China Motor Companies Xiangtan Electric 600416-SH $ 3.92 Zhejiang Founder Motor 002196-SZ $ 2.29 BroadOcean 002249-SZ $ 3.44 Jiangte Electric Motor 002176-SZ $ 3.31 Shanghai Electric Group 601727-SH $ 1.02 Dongfang Electric Group 600875-SH $ 3.73 Average
$ $ $ -$ $
$ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ -$
US/International Motor Companies Siemens SI $ 132.73 $ 115,307 ABB ABB $ 26.02 $ 59,586 Emerson Electric EMR $ 51.69 $ 38,931 Illinois Tool Works ITW $ 55.34 $ 27,807 Cummins CMI $ 96.58 $ 19,084 $ 46.06 $ 5,194 Magna International MGA Rockwell Automation ROK $ 79.66 $ 11,360 Lear Corporation LEA $ 49.07 $ 2,291 Regal Beloit RBC $ 66.40 $ 2,556 Smith AO AOS $ 39.71 $ 1,212 Franklin Electric FELE $ 42.54 $ 989 Average Source: Thomson One, Bloomberg and Maxim Group estimates.
$ 6.09 $ 1.25 $ 2.69 $ 3.08 $ 5.17 $ 4.34 $ 3.05 $ 4.42 n/a $ 2.87 $ 1.94
$ 11.36 $ 1.56 $ 3.27 $ 3.94 $ 8.01 $ 5.07 $ 4.60 $ 5.18 n/a $ 2.10 $ 2.50
$ 10.58 $ 1.91 $ 3.87 $ 4.60 $ 9.69 $ 5.56 $ 5.49 $ 5.94 n/a -$ 2.44 $ 2.89
21.8x 20.8x 19.2x 18.0x 18.7x 10.6x 26.1x 11.1x -13.8x 21.9x 18.2x
11.7x 16.7x 15.8x 14.1x 12.1x 9.1x 17.3x 9.5x -19.0x 17.0x 14.2x
12.5x 13.6x 13.4x 12.0x 10.0x 8.3x 14.5x 8.3x 16.3x 14.7x 12.4x
361
4.9 (2.3) 2.6 52.9% (0.1) 1.9% (0.2) 3.8% (0.3) 2.3 47.1% 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0% 2.3 0.0% 2.3 47.6% 2.2 6.4 6.4 0.36 0.36 0.1 2.4 48.6% 8.28
23.6 $ 387% (12.1) 11.6 350% 48.9% (0.3) 1.4% (1.3) 5.3% (1.6) 10.0 42.1% 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0% 10.0 0.0% 10.0 333% 42.3% 0.5 11.1 14.9 15.1
40.4 $ 71% (20.8) 19.7 70% 48.6% (1.5) 3.7% (4.2) 10.3% (5.7) 14.0 34.6% 0.0 (2.5) 4.4 18.4 0.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 84% 45.6% 1.0 19.5 16.6 18.3
19.8 20.1 19.3 17.0 76.3 19.3 18.1 19.3 20.4 77.2 86.8 60% 74% 18% -14% 27% -3% -10% 0% 20% 1% 12% 56% 19% 19% 18% 16% 18% 19% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 18.3 16.2 15.2 15.3 14.0 60.8 15.5 14.7 15.3 16.1 61.7 67.9 166% 78% 81% -18% 51% -4% (3.0%) 0% 15% 2% 10% 28% 15% 14% 14% 13% 14% 15% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 22.5 23.6 23.5 23.7 93.2 21.8 25.9 27.0 30.8 105.5 125.7 107% 39% 14% 3% 31% -3% 10% 15% 30% 13% 19% 0% 21% 22% 21% 22% 22% 21% 23% 22% 23% 22% 23% 45.0 44.6 48.9 49.9 188.5 46.3 51.3 58.7 62.4 218.7 258.9 13% 6% 11% 12% 11% 3% 15% 20% 25% 16% 18% 0% 0% 20% 43% 42% 45% 47% 44% 45% 46% 48% 47% 46% 47% 65.4 $ 120.8 $ 223.2 $ 105.5 $ 105.4 $ 109.4 $ 106.2 $ 426.5 $ 103.8 $ 112.2 $ 123.0 $ 131.6 $ 470.7 $ 547.6 62% 85% 85% 243% 175% 133% -1% 91% (1.6%) 6% 12% 24% 10% 16% (33.0) (73.3) (146.6) (69.7) (70.1) (75.8) (75.1) (290.8) (73.6) (80.4) (87.6) (94.1) (335.7) (391.9) 32.4 65% 49.6% (1.1) 1.6% (7.7) 11.7% (8.7) 23.7 36.3% (0.2) (6.6) (6.8) 16.9 0.0% 16.9 0.0% 16.9 (8%) 25.8% 7.2 13.2 17.1 18.6 47.5 46% 39.3% (1.2) 1.0% (11.9) 9.9% (13.1) 34.4 45% 28.5% 1.6 (6.1) (4.5) 29.9 (4.5) 15.1% 25.4 0.0% 25.4 50% 21.0% 9.5 40.0 20.2 21.3 76.6 61% 34.3% (2.1) 0.9% (18.7) 8.4% (20.8) 55.8 62% 25.0% 5.5 (12.3) (24.9) 30.9 (7.8) 25.2% 23.1 (3.5) 11.3% 19.6 (23%) 8.8% (0.1) 16.3 25.6 25.7 35.7 227% 33.9% (0.6) 0.6% (7.4) 7.0% (8.0) 27.7 246% 26.3% 1.1 (1.6) (0.8) 27.0 (4.1) 15.1% 22.9 (2.4) 8.7% 20.6 137% 19.5% 0.1 20.6 31.1 31.4 0.66 $ 0.66 $ 68% 3.3 0.3 31.3 6.84 35.3 175% 33.5% (0.4) 0.3% (6.9) 6.5% (7.2) 28.1 219% 26.6% 1.3 (1.0) 1.4 29.5 (3.8) 12.9% 25.7 (0.0) 0.0% 25.7 NM 24.4% 1.3 27.0 31.1 31.3 0.83 $ 0.82 $ NM 2.8 0.3 31.1 6.84 33.6 100% 30.7% (1.7) 1.5% (10.1) 9.2% (11.7) 21.9 68% 20.0% 0.7 (1.1) (0.7) 21.2 (3.3) 15.6% 17.9 (0.0) 0.1% 17.9 NM 16.3% 5.6 23.5 31.1 31.3 31.1 -14% 29.2% (0.8) 0.8% (14.6) 13.8% (15.4) 15.6 (39.7%) 14.7% 2.3 (0.8) 0.9 16.6 (3.8) 22.7% 12.8 (0.1) 0.4% 12.7 -31% 12.0% 6.7 19.4 31.1 31.3 135.7 77% 31.8% (3.4) 0.8% (39.0) 9.1% (42.4) 93.3 67% 21.9% 5.5 (4.6) 0.8 94.2 (14.9) 15.8% 79.2 (2.4) 2.6% 76.8 291% 18.0% 13.7 90.5 31.1 31.3 30.2 (15%) 29.1% (3.9) 3.7% (10.1) 9.7% (14.0) 16.3 (41%) 15.7% 1.1 (1.9) (1.2) 15.0 (4.2) 27.9% 10.8 (0.0) 0.1% 10.8 (47.4%) 10.4% 2.4 13.3 31.3 31.4 31.9 -10% 28.4% (1.3) 1.2% (10.3) 9.2% (11.7) 20.2 (28%) 18.0% 1.2 (1.9) (1.2) 19.1 (3.8) 20.0% 15.2 0.0% 15.2 (40.6%) 13.6% 15.2 31.3 31.4 35.4 5% 28.8% (1.2) 1.0% (9.0) 7.3% (10.2) 25.2 15% 20.5% 1.3 (1.9) (1.0) 24.1 (4.3) 18.0% 19.8 0.0% 19.8 11% 16.1% 19.8 31.4 31.5 0.63 $ 0.63 $ 10% 2.9 0.1 28.2 6.51 37.5 21% 28.5% (1.3) 1.0% (9.5) 7.2% (10.8) 26.7 71% 20.3% 1.4 (1.9) (0.9) 25.8 (4.4) 17.0% 21.4 0.0% 21.4 69% 16.3% 21.4 31.4 31.6 135.0 -1% 28.7% (7.8) 1.7% (38.9) 8.3% (46.6) 88.4 -5% 18.8% 5.1 (7.7) (4.4) 84.0 (16.7) 19.9% 67.3 (0.0) 0.0% 67.3 -12% 14.3% 67.3 31.3 31.5 155.7 15% 28.4% (4.4) 0.8% (41.3) 7.5% (45.7) 109.9 24% 20.1% 5.5 (7.7) (4.0) 106.0 (21.2) 20.0% 84.8 0.0% 84.8 26% 15.5% 84.8 31.6 31.7 2.68 2.67 25% 14.7 1.3 125.9 23.0% 6.36
60.3 22% 27% 40.2 19% 18% 71.4 157% 23% 32% $ 44.5
$ $
1.11 $ 0.99 $ 1.01 $ 0.91 $ 53% (10%) 2.2 6.2 0.9 1.6 17.1 42.3% 7.80 31.4 48.1% 7.30
1.25 $ 0.77 $ 1.19 $ 0.77 $ 31% (35.7%) 7.7 17.0 1.8 1.2 43.8 36.3% 6.83 74.1 33.2% 6.84
0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.47 $ 0.35 $ 0.49 $ 0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.46 $ 0.34 $ 0.48 $ NM -25% 221% (47.4%) (40.8%) 3.1 2.3 11.5 2.9 2.9 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 25.2 6.84 18.2 6.60 105.8 24.8% 6.76 19.3 6.57 23.2 6.54
0.68 $ 2.15 $ 0.68 $ 2.14 $ 54% -13% 2.9 11.5 0.1 0.4 29.7 6.48 100.4 21.3% 6.48
362
Source: Investars.com
As of:
% of Coverage Universe
6/10/2011
% of Ratings that Firm received Banking fees 23.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Performance* Buy Hold Sell Expected total return of 15% or more over next 12 months Expected total return of plus or minus 14% over next 12 months Expected total negative return of at least 15% over next 12 months
* Relative to Nasdaq Composite. An Under Review (UR) rating represents a stock that the Firm has temporarily placed under review due to a material change.
Maxim Group makes a market in Harbin Electric, Inc. Maxim Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Harbin Electric, Inc. in the next 3 months.
I, Echo He, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firms total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. Valuation Methods: One or more of the following valuation methods are used by Maxim Group analysts in making a ratings or price projection: Analysis of companies P/E ratio, price/book ratio, earnings expectations or sales growth as they relate within an industry group or to the broader market, enterprise value/sales, Individual sector analysis, sum of the parts analysis and discounted cash flow.
363
RISK RATINGS
Risk ratings take into account both fundamental criteria and price volatility. Speculative Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to early-stage companies with minimal to no revenues, lack of earnings, balance sheet concerns, and/or a short operating history. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be significantly above the industry. Price Volatility: Because of the inherent fundamental criteria of the companies falling within this risk category, the price volatility is expected to be significant with the possibility that the investment could eventually be worthless. Speculative stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. High Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies having below-average revenue and earnings visibility, negative cash flow, and low market cap or public float. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be above the industry. Price volatility: The price volatility of companies falling within this category is expected to be above the industry. High-risk stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. Medium Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to approximate the industry average. Low Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have above-average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to be below the industry.
364
365
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
China May 27, 2011
Closing Price (5/26/11): 12-Month Target Price: 52-Week Range: Market Cap (MM): Shares O/S (MM): Float (MM): Shares Short (MM): Avg. Vol. (000) Book Value/Share: Dividend/Yield: Risk Profile: Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Maxim Group FYE: December 2009A: GAAP 2010A: GAAP 2011E: GAAP 2012E: GAAP LT Earnings Growth Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Consensus-First Call FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Echo He, MD, PhD ehe@maximgrp.com $16.21 $24 $14.95 - $25.05 $507.4 31.3 14.4 7.5 563 $19.60 NA Medium Revenues ($M) 2011E 2012E $103.8A $122.1 $112.2 $134.7 $123.0 $140.4 $131.6 $150.4 $470.7 $547.6 Current Current EPS P/E $0.77 21.1 $2.46 6.6 $2.14 7.6 $2.67 6.1 15% GAAP Quarterly EPS Current 2011E $0.34A $0.48 $0.63 $0.68 Current 2012E $0.58 $0.66 $0.70 $0.74
Buy
$2.14 $2.67 Quarterly EPS 2011E 2012E $0.34A $0.58 $0.50 $0.66 $0.62 $0.70 $0.66 $0.74 $2.12 $2.78 (212) 895-3718
Maxim Group LLC 405 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10174 www.maximgrp.com
SEE PAGES 4-6 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS 366
Chinese Industrial Companies China Automotive CAAS A-Power APWR FushiCopperweld FSIN Lihua International LIWA Shengdatech SDTH Wonder Auto WATG ChemSpec CPC China Gerui Adv. Materia CHOP SORL Auto Parts SORL Average
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ -$ $ $ $ $ $ $
6.3x 4.5x -6.0x 4.3x 6.0x 4.2x 6.9x 4.0x 4.8x 5.2x
HK Listed China Motor Companies Harbin Power Equipment 1133-HK $ Shanghai Electric Group 2727-HK $ Dongfang Electric Group 1072-HK $ Chongqing Machinery & E2722-HK $ Shanghai Prime Machine 2345-HK $ Average
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
China Mainland Listed China Motor Companies Xiangtan Electric 600416-S $ 3.84 $ Zhejiang Founder Motor 002196-S $ 2.26 $ BroadOcean 002249-S $ 3.38 $ Shanghai Electric Group 601727-S $ 1.06 $ Dongfang Electric Group 600875-S $ 3.73 $ Average
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ -$
US/International Motor Companies Siemens SI $ 127.96 $ 111,163 ABB ABB $ 26.08 $ 59,723 Emerson Electric EMR $ 54.04 $ 40,701 Illinois Tool Works ITW $ 56.99 $ 28,636 Cummins CMI $ 105.85 $ 20,916 Magna International MGA $ 48.18 $ 5,433 Rockwell Automation ROK $ 83.13 $ 11,854 Lear Corporation LEA $ 49.60 $ 2,316 Regal Beloit RBC $ 67.99 $ 2,618 Smith AO AOS $ 40.17 $ 1,226 Franklin Electric FELE $ 43.00 $ 1,000 Average Source: Thomson One, Bloomberg and Maxim Group estimates.
$ 6.09 $ 1.25 $ 2.69 $ 3.08 $ 5.17 $ 4.34 $ 3.05 $ 4.42 n/a $ 2.87 $ 1.94
$ 11.40 $ 1.55 $ 3.27 $ 3.94 $ 7.97 $ 5.06 $ 4.53 $ 5.18 n/a $ 2.10 $ 2.50
$ 10.61 $ 1.90 $ 3.87 $ 4.59 $ 9.55 $ 5.58 $ 5.36 $ 5.95 n/a -$ 2.44 $ 2.89
21.0x 20.9x 20.1x 18.5x 20.5x 11.1x 27.3x 11.2x -14.0x 22.2x 18.7x
11.2x 16.8x 16.5x 14.5x 13.3x 9.5x 18.3x 9.6x -19.2x 17.2x 14.6x
12.1x 13.7x 14.0x 12.4x 11.1x 8.6x 15.5x 8.3x 16.5x 14.9x 12.7x
367
4.9 (2.3) 2.6 52.9% (0.1) 1.9% (0.2) 3.8% (0.3) 2.3 47.1% 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0% 2.3 0.0% 2.3 47.6% 2.2 6.4 6.4 0.36 0.36 0.1 2.4 48.6% 8.28
23.6 $ 387% (12.1) 11.6 350% 48.9% (0.3) 1.4% (1.3) 5.3% (1.6) 10.0 42.1% 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0% 10.0 0.0% 10.0 333% 42.3% 0.5 11.1 14.9 15.1
40.4 $ 71% (20.8) 19.7 70% 48.6% (1.5) 3.7% (4.2) 10.3% (5.7) 14.0 34.6% 0.0 (2.5) 4.4 18.4 0.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 84% 45.6% 1.0 19.5 16.6 18.3
19.8 20.1 19.3 17.0 76.3 19.3 18.1 19.3 20.4 77.2 86.8 60% 74% 18% -14% 27% -3% -10% 0% 20% 1% 12% 56% 19% 19% 18% 16% 18% 19% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 18.3 16.2 15.2 15.3 14.0 60.8 15.5 14.7 15.3 16.1 61.7 67.9 166% 78% 81% -18% 51% -4% (3.0%) 0% 15% 2% 10% 28% 15% 14% 14% 13% 14% 15% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 22.5 23.6 23.5 23.7 93.2 21.8 25.9 27.0 30.8 105.5 125.7 107% 39% 14% 3% 31% -3% 10% 15% 30% 13% 19% 0% 21% 22% 21% 22% 22% 21% 23% 22% 23% 22% 23% 45.0 44.6 48.9 49.9 188.5 46.3 51.3 58.7 62.4 218.7 258.9 13% 6% 11% 12% 11% 3% 15% 20% 25% 16% 18% 0% 0% 20% 43% 42% 45% 47% 44% 45% 46% 48% 47% 46% 47% 65.4 $ 120.8 $ 223.2 $ 105.5 $ 105.4 $ 109.4 $ 106.2 $ 426.5 $ 103.8 $ 112.2 $ 123.0 $ 131.6 $ 470.7 $ 547.6 62% 85% 85% 243% 175% 133% -1% 91% (1.6%) 6% 12% 24% 10% 16% (33.0) (73.3) (146.6) (69.7) (70.1) (75.8) (75.1) (290.8) (73.6) (80.4) (87.6) (94.1) (335.7) (391.9) 32.4 65% 49.6% (1.1) 1.6% (7.7) 11.7% (8.7) 23.7 36.3% (0.2) (6.6) (6.8) 16.9 0.0% 16.9 0.0% 16.9 (8%) 25.8% 7.2 13.2 17.1 18.6 47.5 46% 39.3% (1.2) 1.0% (11.9) 9.9% (13.1) 34.4 45% 28.5% 1.6 (6.1) (4.5) 29.9 (4.5) 15.1% 25.4 0.0% 25.4 50% 21.0% 9.5 40.0 20.2 21.3 76.6 61% 34.3% (2.1) 0.9% (18.7) 8.4% (20.8) 55.8 62% 25.0% 5.5 (12.3) (24.9) 30.9 (7.8) 25.2% 23.1 (3.5) 11.3% 19.6 (23%) 8.8% (0.1) 16.3 25.6 25.7 35.7 227% 33.9% (0.6) 0.6% (7.4) 7.0% (8.0) 27.7 246% 26.3% 1.1 (1.6) (0.8) 27.0 (4.1) 15.1% 22.9 (2.4) 8.7% 20.6 137% 19.5% 0.1 20.6 31.1 31.4 0.66 $ 0.66 $ 68% 3.3 0.3 31.3 6.84 35.3 175% 33.5% (0.4) 0.3% (6.9) 6.5% (7.2) 28.1 219% 26.6% 1.3 (1.0) 1.4 29.5 (3.8) 12.9% 25.7 (0.0) 0.0% 25.7 NM 24.4% 1.3 27.0 31.1 31.3 0.83 $ 0.82 $ NM 2.8 0.3 31.1 6.84 33.6 100% 30.7% (1.7) 1.5% (10.1) 9.2% (11.7) 21.9 68% 20.0% 0.7 (1.1) (0.7) 21.2 (3.3) 15.6% 17.9 (0.0) 0.1% 17.9 NM 16.3% 5.6 23.5 31.1 31.3 31.1 -14% 29.2% (0.8) 0.8% (14.6) 13.8% (15.4) 15.6 (39.7%) 14.7% 2.3 (0.8) 0.9 16.6 (3.8) 22.7% 12.8 (0.1) 0.4% 12.7 -31% 12.0% 6.7 19.4 31.1 31.3 135.7 77% 31.8% (3.4) 0.8% (39.0) 9.1% (42.4) 93.3 67% 21.9% 5.5 (4.6) 0.8 94.2 (14.9) 15.8% 79.2 (2.4) 2.6% 76.8 291% 18.0% 13.7 90.5 31.1 31.3 30.2 (15%) 29.1% (3.9) 3.7% (10.1) 9.7% (14.0) 16.3 (41%) 15.7% 1.1 (1.9) (1.2) 15.0 (4.2) 27.9% 10.8 (0.0) 0.1% 10.8 (47.4%) 10.4% 2.4 13.3 31.3 31.4 31.9 -10% 28.4% (1.3) 1.2% (10.3) 9.2% (11.7) 20.2 (28%) 18.0% 1.2 (1.9) (1.2) 19.1 (3.8) 20.0% 15.2 0.0% 15.2 (40.6%) 13.6% 15.2 31.3 31.4 35.4 5% 28.8% (1.2) 1.0% (9.0) 7.3% (10.2) 25.2 15% 20.5% 1.3 (1.9) (1.0) 24.1 (4.3) 18.0% 19.8 0.0% 19.8 11% 16.1% 19.8 31.4 31.5 0.63 $ 0.63 $ 10% 2.9 0.1 28.2 6.51 37.5 21% 28.5% (1.3) 1.0% (9.5) 7.2% (10.8) 26.7 71% 20.3% 1.4 (1.9) (0.9) 25.8 (4.4) 17.0% 21.4 0.0% 21.4 69% 16.3% 21.4 31.4 31.6 135.0 -1% 28.7% (7.8) 1.7% (38.9) 8.3% (46.6) 88.4 -5% 18.8% 5.1 (7.7) (4.4) 84.0 (16.7) 19.9% 67.3 (0.0) 0.0% 67.3 -12% 14.3% 67.3 31.3 31.5 155.7 15% 28.4% (4.4) 0.8% (41.3) 7.5% (45.7) 109.9 24% 20.1% 5.5 (7.7) (4.0) 106.0 (21.2) 20.0% 84.8 0.0% 84.8 26% 15.5% 84.8 31.6 31.7 2.68 2.67 25% 14.7 1.3 125.9 23.0% 6.36
60.3 22% 27% 40.2 19% 18% 71.4 157% 23% 32% $ 44.5
$ $
1.11 $ 0.99 $ 1.01 $ 0.91 $ 53% (10%) 2.2 6.2 0.9 1.6 17.1 42.3% 7.80 31.4 48.1% 7.30
1.25 $ 0.77 $ 1.19 $ 0.77 $ 31% (35.7%) 7.7 17.0 1.8 1.2 43.8 36.3% 6.83 74.1 33.2% 6.84
0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.47 $ 0.35 $ 0.49 $ 0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.46 $ 0.34 $ 0.48 $ NM -25% 221% (47.4%) (40.8%) 3.1 2.3 11.5 2.9 2.9 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 25.2 6.84 18.2 6.60 105.8 24.8% 6.76 19.3 6.57 23.2 6.54
0.68 $ 2.15 $ 0.68 $ 2.14 $ 54% -13% 2.9 11.5 0.1 0.4 29.7 6.48 100.4 21.3% 6.48
368
Source: Investars.com
As of:
% of Coverage Universe
5/27/2011
% of Ratings that Firm received Banking fees 24.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Performance* Buy Hold Sell Expected total return of 15% or more over next 12 months Expected total return of plus or minus 14% over next 12 months Expected total negative return of at least 15% over next 12 months
* Relative to Nasdaq Composite. An Under Review (UR) rating represents a stock that the Firm has temporarily placed under review due to a material change.
Maxim Group makes a market in Harbin Electric, Inc. Maxim Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Harbin Electric, Inc. in the next 3 months.
I, Echo He, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firms total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. Valuation Methods: One or more of the following valuation methods are used by Maxim Group analysts in making a ratings or price projection: Analysis of companies P/E ratio, price/book ratio, earnings expectations
369
RISK RATINGS
Risk ratings take into account both fundamental criteria and price volatility. Speculative Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to early-stage companies with minimal to no revenues, lack of earnings, balance sheet concerns, and/or a short operating history. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be significantly above the industry. Price Volatility: Because of the inherent fundamental criteria of the companies falling within this risk category, the price volatility is expected to be significant with the possibility that the investment could eventually be worthless. Speculative stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. High Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies having below-average revenue and earnings visibility, negative cash flow, and low market cap or public float. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be above the industry. Price volatility: The price volatility of companies falling within this category is expected to be above the industry. High-risk stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. Medium Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to approximate the industry average. Low Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have above-average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to be below the industry.
370
DISCLAIMERS
Some companies that Maxim Group LLC follows are emerging growth companies whose securities typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Maxim Group LLC research reports may not be suitable for some investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance. This communication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities mentioned herein. This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Maxim Group, LLC (Maxim). Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Maxim to be reliable, but Maxim makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. Maxim accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Maxim. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Maxim may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and Maxim is under no obligation to ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgment at its original date of publication by Maxim and are subject to change without notice. The price, value of and income from any of the securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. Securities recommended, offered or sold by Maxim: (1) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Company; (2) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution; and (2) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of principal invested. Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances; you may be required to pay more money to support these losses.
371
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
HRBN - Q1 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
Event Date/Time: May. 11. 2011 / 1:00PM GMT
372
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
May. 11. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q1 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS
Christy Shue Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Tianfu Yang Harbin Electric Inc. - Chairman & CEO Zedong Xu Harbin Electric Inc. - CFO
PRESENTATION
Operator Good morning and welcome to the Harbin Electric to report first-quarter 2011 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions). I would now like to turn the conference over to Christy Shue, Executive Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Thank you, Andrew. Good morning. Welcome to Harbin Electric's first-quarter 2011 earnings conference call. I'm joined by our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Tianfu Yang and Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Zedong Xu, on the call. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that our discussion this morning may include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements reflect the Company's current expectations on future events and are subject to a number of factors and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially. A detailed discussion of these factors and uncertainties is contained in the Company's filings with the SEC. We filed our quarterly report for the three months ended March 31, 2011 on SEC Form 10-Q yesterday after market closed and we issued a press release this morning to highlight our first-quarter financial result in comparison with the same quarter last year. When you compare our results sequentially with the fourth quarter last year the changes are minor on major line items and the results this quarter were roughly comparable to the last quarter. When you compare this quarter's results with the same quarter last year there were significant changes on certain line items. Therefore, we would like to focus the discussions on the year-over-year comparison and explain to you the factors that contributed to those changes.
373
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
May. 11. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q1 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
In terms of the revenue for the first quarter of 2011 total revenues were 104 -- approximately $104m, down slightly, compared to $105m in the first quarter of last year. Marginally lower sales of linear motors and specialty micro-motors were partially compensated by slightly higher sales in industrial rotary motors. The breakdown of total revenues by product line was relatively stable year over year, with linear motors and related systems contributing approximately 19% of total revenues. Specialty micro-motors contributed 15% and the rotary motors accounting for about 66% of the total revenues. In the linear motor product line our sales were down minimal [or] marginally $0.6m year over year. Mainly lower sales volume [in oil pumps] and in the propulsion systems for coal transportation trains were lower but which were largely offset by higher volumes in other linear motors. We sold 75 units of linear motor-driven oil pumps in the first-quarter 2011 compared with 105 units in the first quarter of last year and this resulted in about $1.4m decrease in sales. And, similarly, in the linear motor propulsions systems for coal transportation trains the revenues also declined by about $1.4m. However, sales of other linear motors remained robust and the new models generated significant revenues in the first quarter this year. In the specialty micro-motor product line sales declined by about $0.7m. A decrease in sales volume of existing products was partially compensated by sales of new products. Rotary motor sales at Xi'an Tech Full Simo were up $1.3m, driven by volumes, while rotary motors sales at Weihai were down $0.7m due to lower volumes. Sales of other products dropped by about $1m. So next in terms of the gross profit margin. Our gross profit margin is roughly in line with the last quarter sequentially but down some 33.9% in the first quarter. We have a gross margin of 29.1% this quarter. The decline in overall gross margin was primarily due to margin decline in linear motors and specialty micro-motors In addition, higher raw material costs and the labor costs contributed to higher cost of goods sold across all product lines. And this is for the reference, what we've seen, for example, the copper price increased by nearly 20% in our raw material purchasing year over year. Aluminum and the silicon steel prices were also up on a significant level, but lower -- but slightly lower than the copper. Meanwhile, our total labor cost from production and manufacturing also increased. Although the Company anticipates passing on a portion of the higher costs through increased selling prices, but sometimes it takes some time to raise the price of a product and usually you have a lag there. So we expect that higher raw material prices will continue to pressure our gross margin near term. By product line let me pull out each -- some specific factors by product lines. In the linear motors gross margin declined to 45.6%, from 59.8% last year. The margin compression was mainly attributable to two factors besides higher raw material and labor costs. The first factor mainly is the change in product mix. Our sales volume of higher-margin products, for example, oil pumps and propulsion systems for coal transportation trains, those two products are our highest-margin products and their volume declined in the first quarter this year compared to last year. At Harbin we've sold more of other linear motors and -- but those other linear motors, relatively speaking, have lower margins than the oil pumps and our linear motor for propulsion systems. And then the second factor that contributed to lower margin in the linear motors is because we have lower average selling price. And in order to expand our customer base and gain our market share, for some of the other linear motor products we lowered the selling prices. Although for a minor portion of the product we also raised the prices, but that was not enough to compensate the -- for the products that we lowered the prices. In the specialty micro-motors product line gross margin declined to 32% in the first quarter, from 38% in the first quarter of last year. The lower gross margin was mainly due to the following two major factors in addition to higher raw material and the labor costs. The first major factor contributing to lower margin in the specialty motor is we added several new products in the first quarter. And not in this quarter, but compared to the first quarter last year, the first quarter last year did not have those products.
2 THOMSON REUTERS STREETEVENTS | www.streetevents.com | Contact Us
2011 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. 'Thomson Reuters' and the Thomson Reuters logo are registered trademarks of Thomson Reuters and its affiliated companies.
374
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
May. 11. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q1 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
So these few new products we added and generally when you launch new products you do experience higher manufacturing costs at the start up stage because of the higher costs associated with the training of our workforce and we have to do more test runs. And also usually the [new] products and the customer usually start with the lower or smaller order volumes so to give you -- to give us more time to do test runs and make quality consistently all that. So all those factors result in reduced production efficiency and result to higher costs per unit. But we expect when the volume ramps up and we do gain economies of scale and then our production efficiency would improve and then we would lower -- the cost of sales percentage would be lowered once the economies of scale is going up. The second factor is also related to the changes in product mix in micro-motors, because we do -- we have launched new products. So the sales volume of the existing products that we have been selling which also have a higher margin declined, while the new products we are selling and we're producing because of the higher costs they also have lower margins. So both products increased, so you do have this product mix shift and some rotation, that affected the margin overall in this product line. In both linear motors and specialty micro-motor product lines we continue launching new and customized products. Some of them may have lower margins but help us continue to capture new opportunities in the market and is essential for our growth in top line and bottom line. In the rotary motors product line, which actually contributes to the largest portion of our revenue, gross margin was 23.5% in the first quarter of this year, relative stable compared with the 25% in the year-ago period. In this line we do also see higher raw material costs and labor costs. However, we have been working on improve the manufacturing efficiency at our rotary motor facilities after we acquired them. And we have seen the improved manufacturing efficiency helped with stabilizing the margin despite high escalating raw material and labor costs there. In terms of operating expenses line item you probably -- (inaudible) that you have paid attention. I believe that there were several items that are higher -- significantly higher than last year. First of all, our research and development expenses, the R&D expenses, in this quarter is the highest in our historical period and we incurred a total about $3.9m R&D expense in the first quarter compared to only $0.6m in the three months in the same quarter last year. While we have -- the Company has been telling our investors that technology and R&D are the Company's long-term strategic focus we have been making every effort to enhance our R&D projects, exploring opportunities in new products in new technology and we invest -- we will continue invest in product and technology development in order to capture additional market share and position the Company well for further growth. The $3.9m R&D expense in this quarter was primarily associated with a new development project to develop an automated control system for linear servo motors. We actually started this project development last year around -- in March last year. We actually have been talking about this project each quarter. We told investors that these linear servo motors are -- will be used for heavy equipment machinery and is supported by government and we jointly developing this project with research institutions and each research institution will focus on certain technology. One part of the project is the automated control system for the linear servo motors. This development project was initiated in March in collaboration with another research institute and we have seen that the project has been successful and attracted extensive interest from potential customers. And in the first quarter we incurred about $3.1m just on this project. And then we expected to launch this -- the production of this newly-developed linear servo motor during this year. And about -- so you have questions about this product and everything and the technology, all that, we can get into that later. I won't go into much detail about this. However, in subsequent quarters this year we expect our R&D expenses to be lower and expect that the total R&D expenses in the entire year will remain below 3% of total revenues. So that means we are front-end loaded with the R&D expense because of this project [last year] that hit the milestones and that is near completion.
3 THOMSON REUTERS STREETEVENTS | www.streetevents.com | Contact Us
2011 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. 'Thomson Reuters' and the Thomson Reuters logo are registered trademarks of Thomson Reuters and its affiliated companies.
375
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
May. 11. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q1 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
In other selling, general and administrative expenses we reported $10m compared to $7.4m in the first quarter of last year, which is 9.7% of total revenue this quarter compared to 7% of the total revenues same quarter last year. The year-over-year increase in SG&A primarily reflected three contributors. The first one is Xi'an Tech Full Simo recorded $1.7m incremental provision for bad debts in the first quarter of 2011. Versus in the first quarter of 2010 the reserve was minimal. This is purely reflecting the accounts receivable aging analysis. And the second factor that contributes to higher SG&A is the expenses related to the Going Private proposal that's submitted by the Company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Tianfu Yang. The expense in this quarter totaled $0.9m so this proposal and the Company's evaluation of this proposal is continuing. And this expense included the legal fees associated with the class-action law suits, also fees associated with the legal and financial advisors for the Special Committee of the Board and also included those fees associated with the Company's legal counsels and also the other related expenses. However, the Company expected to recover some of the legal expenses related to the class-action law suits because we do have an insurance policy that covers some of the expenses. The third factor that contributed to higher SG&A is the shipping and the handling costs increased significantly this quarter compared to the same quarter last year. So the shipping and handling amounted to $1.5m compared to $0.8m the same quarter last year. The higher shipping and handling costs mainly reflect the higher fuel costs -- energy costs that you see all over the world anyway. And also another contributor is that further we have been expanding our customer base trying to get more customers, sell our products all over the country. So we did get more customers but they are located farther away from our manufacturing sites. So we have to ship -- make the shipments more distance -- so it's longer distances. So that also contributed to higher shipping and handling costs. Therefore, with all those factors our operating profit dropped to $16m from $27m -- $27.7m in the first quarter of last year and the operating margin also declined to 15.7% from 26.3%. Okay, with those factors that we discussed our net income also decreased to $10.8m, or $0.34 per diluted share, and from last year -- from the same quarter last year, which was $20.6m, or $0.66 per diluted share. And the net income -- the lower net income also contributes to several major factors. Some of them we have discussed -- just discussed, for example, the lower gross margin, higher R&D expenses, higher SG&A expenses. And also there were some expenses that are also higher than the last year. For example, the fair value change in our warrant and also our interest expense are higher due to we took [$50m] on debt from China Development Bank last year. Another factor that affected the net income is the income tax provision. The income tax provision, given that the lower net income, we would expect that we would have lower tax. But, however, keep in mind that our China subsidiary they pay tax on the income that they earn. So a lot of the expenses incurred, for example, the R&D expenses or some other expenses incurred on the US side are not deductible on the China side. So we would have to make the income tax provision based on the net income that the local subsidiaries earn. And based on the Chinese tax law, some of the deductibles that can be deductible in the US but cannot be deductible in China. And our corporate income tax -- some of our preferential discounted tax rates expired also in China. The major one is our Harbin Tech Full which in last year, or in the past we have been enjoying very low preferential tax rates. In 2010 it was 10%, but that was -- but that preferential tax treatment expired at the end of 2010. And although Harbin Tech Full, our PRC subsidiary, is in the process of applying for a new preferential income tax rate from the Chinese government, which we're applying at the next level, which is 15%, but we have not obtained the government's approval yet. Usually, it takes about several months. It takes two or even more months to get a government approval; that's the typical length of time in China. Then the government usually approve you towards the end of the year. So before we obtain the government
4 THOMSON REUTERS STREETEVENTS | www.streetevents.com | Contact Us
2011 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. 'Thomson Reuters' and the Thomson Reuters logo are registered trademarks of Thomson Reuters and its affiliated companies.
376
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
May. 11. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q1 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
approval the management decided to use the standard rate of 25% to make the income tax provision. So that is the major income tax rate change. And we expect -- the management believes that it's highly likely that Harbin Tech Full will get approval for this 15% income tax rate. And the other PRC subsidiaries' tax rate remained pretty much the same, other than at our Shanghai subsidiary the income tax rate just gone up 1%, from 11% last year to 12% this year. So income tax also hit our net income this year. However, if we get approval of the 15% income tax rate later this year then we would lower the income tax provision. Okay, there are couple of balance sheet items I would like just to give for discussion. And as of March 31 we had cash and cash equivalent of about $123m. We had a cash increase from $99m at the end of 2010 mainly attributable to our operating earnings and we still made very good operating earnings. And also we had [proceeds on the note] provided by PRC banks. Capital. And also in the first quarter we have not used the -- we have not spent a lot of capital items there. The capital expenditure in the first quarter is minimal; it's about $20m. And you know that generally capital spending in the first quarter is seasonally lower in China as major capital spending usually starts in the second quarter after the Chinese New Year. So we expect the capital spending to increase in subsequent quarters of this year while we continue to invest in upgrading our manufacturing capabilities, improving production efficiency and expanding the capacity, continuing to complete the project that we started to expand the capacity and some new projects that we start. In summary, overall we had a flat quarter on the top line year over year, primarily considered as a temporary near-term business fluctuation. Long term, management are confident with our business prospects and we expect to continue grow top and bottom line longer term. Our capacity expansion is underway at our [rotary motor] facilities in Xi'an and Weihai and our new products continue to come out of pipeline through both our specialty micro-motor facility in Shanghai and our linear motor facility in Harbin. And we'll mention a few new products that are in the pipeline that we expect to launch this year. For example, the linear servo motors and also the second-generation oil pumps. And also we have actually developed a motor -- the linear motor that replace the motor in the traditional oil pump, so that would open up new market demand, new market for us. Lastly, I would like just to make a few comments on the Going Private proposal. The Company's Board of Directors received from the Company's Chairman and CEO, Mr. Yang, that regarding this Going Private proposal. There is a recent event section in the press release that provides the current status of this event and also much more details is also provided in the 10-Q that we filed. The most recent public information about this proposal is the amended 13D filed jointly by Mr. Yang and ABAX. When Mr. Yang and ABAX jointly submitted the proposal to the Special Committee recently, on April 20 I believe, to the Special Committee of the Board of Directors that they intend to acquire all of the shares of the Company's common stock not already -- if not already held by Mr. Yang and ABAX or any of their respective affiliates at $24 per share. According to the amended 13D filed jointly by Mr. Yang and ABAX Mr. Yang stated that Tech Full Electric Co. Ltd. which is an acquisition vehicle formed and Mr. Yang, in connection with this Going Private proposal, has received a debt commitment of [$400m] issued by China Development Bank. And also according to the amendment 13D filed ABAX also committed equity and debt financing up to $63.8m. So that's the most recent public information that we have available. The Special Committee of the Board is continuing its process of evaluating this proposal by Mr. Yang and ABAX or any other proposals that the Company may receive. Please note that the Company does not have any other information beyond what's disclosed in this press release or in our 10-Q, or previously. We know that investors may have questions regarding this event. However, we do want to remind you that we are not in the position and will not be able to discuss this event with you beyond what's already disclosed. Okay, this completes our prepared remarks. And now we can move to the floor for questions. Operator, let's start the question session.
5 THOMSON REUTERS STREETEVENTS | www.streetevents.com | Contact Us
2011 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. 'Thomson Reuters' and the Thomson Reuters logo are registered trademarks of Thomson Reuters and its affiliated companies.
377
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
May. 11. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q1 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
Echo He - Maxim Group - Analyst Hi, Christy, Tianfu. Thank you for taking --
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Hi, Echo.
Echo He - Maxim Group - Analyst -- my questions. Okay. The first one -- several of them, okay? First one is about the -- you said the volume of oil pump and coal transportation cars, the order volume declined in the quarter. Is this because of seasonality where you see some weakening of the market demand due to some kind of tightening in the economy? Is that -- can that be generalized? (Spoken in foreign language).
Tianfu Yang - Harbin Electric Inc. - Chairman & CEO (Spoken in foreign language).
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Let me translate the reply. The question is the volume decline in our oil pumps and the propulsion systems for coal transportation train, whether they're driven by the seasonality or driven by the tightening policy in China. Okay, yes, for the -- first of all, let's talk about our coal transportation train project. The first project that we took on started December -- the fourth-quarter 2009. That project we have been supplying our equipment to that coal transportation line for over a year and that project itself, the construction and everything and the launching everything, is completing and towards the end of the completion. So we expect that actually by the second quarter, third quarter that that project should be wrapped up and we should be completing and moving on. So that usually towards the end of a project you see the volume declining because we are wrapping up the project. So for that project we will close -- we will finish by second quarter, third quarter. Currently, we are discussing, negotiating and exploring
378
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
May. 11. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q1 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
two other projects within the space for coal transportation and we're still in the process of discussing. When we can sign the contracts we do not have that timeframe yet, but once we do have this news we will update investors. In terms of the oil pump and the declining volume, it is more seasonality. And usually in the first quarter we do encounter the Chinese Spring Festival that has a long -- longer days of vacation. And also [in the spring and winter] time there is not much of activity going on in this period because in the north part of China, in Harbin, it's very cold and you can't really work outdoors too much in the oil fields, so there is no installation much going on. And towards the spring you start -- starting in the second quarter toward the spring the activity started to ramp up. In terms of the overall total volume of the oil pump we do not expect a change from last year. Right now we expect pretty stable. For this one customer it should -- we should maintain stable volume shipment to them. However, we are also starting to selling this oil pump to other oil field in China. In the beginning it might be small volume but it's opened another door for us. The other field is Jiangsu oil field and we will start to install new oil pumps for them by second quarter (inaudible) second quarter right now. So overall the oil pump volumes should be higher than last year, given that our existing customer and then the new customer that we sign now. So that's the current situation of those two projects.
Echo He - Maxim Group - Analyst Okay, thank you. My second question is about the cost side. The raw material cost increase actually affected your margins a lot in each product line, actually. And I want to know in each product line, linear motor, micro-motor and rotary motor, how much the cost increase -- raw material cost increase you can pass through to your customers. (Spoken in foreign language).
Tianfu Yang - Harbin Electric Inc. - Chairman & CEO (Spoken in foreign language).
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Okay, let me translate this -- it's long. I will just give some highlights -- translation of the highlights, okay? The question is the higher raw material costs in our product line, how much we can pass on to the customers by raising price. And the reply is, yes, the raw material price -- escalating raw material price does hurt our margin, which currently is -- perhaps we believe it to be a big factor there for all our products. And usually when we do the production we actually receive the orders and we arrange the production one-quarter or two-quarters ahead of time. And -- so that's how we -- the raw material that we have to really arrange before time -- ahead of time. At our Shanghai facility for our specialty micro-motor for the automobile industry, because those contracts are longer term it is very difficult to re-price in that line of products. Also because that when we sign contracts with the customers and when we give them the price quotes we do consider some of the room in considering the raw material fluctuation and, still, right now our margin is about 30% in our micro-motor segment; it's 32%. So overall in the industry that margin is very decent, very good. It's not bad. So we believe those are reasonable rates that we can -- that are acceptable for us. So we'd not be able to raise price in that area because they are all long-term customers that we want to sign up. But in other line of business, particularly in the rotary motors, we do consider one of the strategies to raise the price and pass on some cost to the customer. But then you do have some pricing lag when you can really realize those higher price and also
379
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
May. 11. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q1 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
it's just impractical to pass on or to recover all the price increases. A good thing is right now we see some copper price has started declining again right now compared to last year. So you do see the raw material fluctuation from time to time. So it is really difficult to quantify how much you can really recover from -- by passing on by raising the price. And one other factor I would like to point out is we have -- when we just acquired [Xi'an Simo and Weihai] you see that last year and the year before you see they reported higher gross margin. And the one reason is after we acquired and did the restructuring, we downsized the management, downsized the administration, so we did get a lot of cost savings there and in the manufacturing also improved some efficiency there. And their existing inventories we sold so that showed some higher margin. But if you look at our current margin, even with the raw material cost factor that's hurting our margin the overall margin in the industry is still quite decent. Like our Simo Motor, their gross margin is at the 23%, 25% range. So in the field in the industry that is very good margin already. I just want to say that it's just not practical that one -- in the beginning that we'd made some initiative to improve the margin, but then you do have raw material come in that it's -- to expect that everything stays the same that it's not practical for us to really improve the margin. To improve our operations and the manufacturing efficiency, to improve the revenue, all that, is by really improve all our systems, our manufacturing equipment and technology, all that, longer term. And short term by recovering costs from some customer, all that, and that's only short term. So we will still need to focus on longer term.
Echo He - Maxim Group - Analyst Okay. Christy, do you use FIFO or LIFO to calculate your raw --?
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations [Angela], you're on the phone. Just remind me. We report -- we disclose that in our footnotes. I can't recall. I believe it's FIFO.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Yes. No, I don't think it's LIFO. It's in our --
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations It's not LIFO.
380
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
May. 11. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q1 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Yes, FIFO.
Echo He - Maxim Group - Analyst Okay, thanks. My third question is about your -- actually, new product lines; the linear servo motor we were talking about. And I want to know what's the technology you're using. Did you acquire it and/or co-developed and from what kind of approximate source? And also the potential customers you're targeting and also is there are any government subsidies in this project. (Spoken in foreign language).
Tianfu Yang - Harbin Electric Inc. - Chairman & CEO (Spoken in foreign language).
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Okay. All right, the answer for the question is our linear servo motor where are they used and whether -- how we develop the technology and whether we get government support -- subsidy -- subsidies there. And the servo motor's mainly used for the petrochemical industry, heavy machinery industry, the motors that goes to big machinery equipment in industrial. And what we are doing is we are making a system. Right now we're not only just only developing a product where we just want to sell the motors; we want to sell a system. So this is -- we consider our system an integrated system where you have motors and you also have the control systems that go with it. So when you sell a higher -- the system usually we do have -- get higher margin. And especially this particular system we collaborated -- the motor part we in-house developed. And in develop stage then we did get some sort of government subsidy but it's not -- it's minimal, but we did get some government subsidy for the R&D part. But once you go into the production and then you have to rely on your own. The part -- the controlling -- the automated control part that goes with the motor to make the system is where we collaborated with the other research institute. However, because we are the initiative party, we are the one that owns all this proprietary technology once it's developed.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Echo, (Spoken in foreign language).
381
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
May. 11. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q1 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
Echo He - Maxim Group - Analyst All right, okay. Just the last one [I care about], that metro transportation project, is that still -- what status is that and what's the project -- the goal for this currently? (Spoken in foreign language).
Tianfu Yang - Harbin Electric Inc. - Chairman & CEO (Spoken in foreign language).
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Okay, yes. About the metro train subway transportation project, and the question is what's the status over there. In terms of the subway transportation we're actually currently working on three potential projects -- three projects. The first one is the one that we have been discussing and informed the investors, which is the Beijing Airport express line that we -- that track -- that line has already been operating and the trains are using the imported train. And now they need to expand, put more trains to run more frequently. They wanted to run 20 minutes -- every 20 minutes and run a train there. So they do need more trains to put on the track. So we mentioned that we -- that the first domestic train will be built and we delivered some of the motors for the testing train. And there we expect by later this year they should complete the assembly and tests and by -- within this year we should be delivering the products -- the production to them. So that is scheduled to deliver this year for us. And the other line, actually, also in Beijing that is starting construction, then it's called the [S1] line that actually has been published or more discussed in China in all the newspapers, which is very -- it's a low-speed maglev subway metro train in Beijing and the technology and the linear motors we co-developed working together with them. So we expect to also once that finish construction, we will deliver our products to them. And the third project we just started to bid, but that is more longer-term next year is the -- a subway line in [Chongqing] and they already decided to use the linear motor technology. So we are actually one of the bidders, but we are the only one in China. And we have other bidders from the other parts of the world, like Canadians, (inaudible) and all that. So we believe, given our cost advantage we have hope to get the project, but we have to wait until they finish bidding process. And when we can contract we don't know yet, but that's the potential project we're working on just to give you some information on that.
Echo He - Maxim Group - Analyst Okay, that's all. That's all, thank you so much.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Okay, thank you, Echo. Okay, we have a few minutes for some -- just a few questions. Let's see do we have more questions online in the queue?
Operator Yes. The next question comes from Mark Tobin of Roth Capital Partners. Please go ahead.
382
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
May. 11. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q1 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
Mark Tobin - Roth Capital - Analyst Hi, thanks for taking my question. First, just to go back to the gross margin question, looking at the declines, particularly in the linear motor and micro motor segments, can you help quantify what contribution mix, raw material and labor, made to that decline?
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Okay, let me just translate the question first. Okay. (Spoken in foreign language).
Tianfu Yang - Harbin Electric Inc. - Chairman & CEO (Spoken in foreign language).
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Mark, yes, we do -- qualitatively speaking that the raw material -- in the cost of goods sold the raw material is the bigger part of the cost of goods sold. And we do not have breakdown right now but we have provided -- in the past we have provided a breakdown for the linear motors and micro-motors, the raw material was about 60%, 70% of the raw material -- 70% of raw material and about 10%, 15% the labor and 10% for the utilities and all that other manufacturing costs. So the raw material cost is about 50% of the cost of goods sold. I do not have the number breakdown for rotary motor on top of my head. We can get back to you later on and see if we have that breakdown. But it's common in China the labor cost is relatively lower and for all the other -- if you look at all the industry -- manufacturing industry that's coming from machinery not from labor industry or for the -- this -- or heavy machinery industry it's common that the raw material takes up 50% of the total cost of goods sold.
Mark Tobin - Roth Capital - Analyst Okay, understood. And I guess another way of asking, had the mix during this past quarter -- the product mix for linear motors been the same as it was a year ago what would the margins have been? Or how much would they have declined? I guess I'm trying to get a sense of what recovery can we expect on the gross margin line and how much is tracking with gross margin and how much is more of a structural shift in the mix of your business.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Yes, that's a good question. Currently we do not have that breakdown. We do see when we're looking -- do the analysis we look at our total manufacturing costs. The manufacturing costs have gone up a lot. And then the raw material we looked at a few items to see the one thing. The copper I looked at is nearly 20% higher in our purchasing -- in our raw material purchasing than last year. So we can rather look at what are the factors that are contributing to it, but we did not quantitatively to see that. What we'll see, we'll take a look and see if we'll be able to quantify that, but it's a lot of data that we need to put together to make a number. So we'll discuss that offline.
383
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
May. 11. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q1 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
Mark Tobin - Roth Capital - Analyst Okay. And, changing over to R&D, I understand that the development project was -- has been underway for the better part of a year. What drove such a large portion of the expenses to be recognized during this quarter? And obviously, based on the guidance for just under 3% of total annual revenue, this level is going to continue to some extent but, certainly, higher than a year ago.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Yes, I can explain this R&D expense is mainly -- [$3.1m] is related to this one particular project, the servo motor project, and the remaining is for the normal R&D activities that we do. So this project -- the servo motor project mainly during the first quarter is incurred in the first quarter because a lot of milestones achieved and then, according to their contract, we need to pay those milestone achievement expense. So that's just for that -- for this quarter. And once we complete the part of the R&D and then the main part is how we fit the product into our production line and we ramp up and arrange production and all that, so that will be different from R&D.
Mark Tobin - Roth Capital - Analyst Okay, that's helpful. And then, finally, on the tax rate when do you expect to find out the decision on the approval for the reduced tax rate?
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations We heard the government in China -- the government usually give you -- towards the end of the year they give you approval and say -- okay, yes, tax rate, you know that you're approved for this rate. But let me get -- let me ask the CFO to see if we can provide more details, but that's the information I have now.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations (Spoken in foreign language).
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations The common practice in China is usually the government towards the end of the year they tell you -- okay, so you're okay to do this. Although we have submitted the application now to the Tax Bureau, however, they don't process that, they don't tell you right now. Even if they believe you can get it they don't tell you right now to give you the document. But for Harbin Tech Full we had a three-year exemption, two-year half that was expired, but we are still qualified as a high technology development
384
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
May. 11. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q1 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
company and located in an economic development zone. So we believe we're still qualified for that 15% and we should be able to get that 15%. But that's just -- not until later this year the government would not clearly say that's okay.
Mark Tobin - Roth Capital - Analyst Okay, that's helpful. Thank you.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Okay. Sorry that we run out of time and we're almost [done]. Let's just take one simple one, one more question and we will close this right now.
Operator Next question comes from Chad Cooper of Roth Capital. Please go ahead.
Chad Cooper - Roth Capital - Analyst Hi, Christy, good morning. Hi, Mr. Yang.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Hi, Chad.
Chad Cooper - Roth Capital - Analyst Not really a question, but more a message to your Special Committee. I speak to several of your large institutional shareholders really on a daily basis and I think the consistent message across the board is that the $24 proposal by Mr. Yang and the sponsors is a sufficient price and they are not in favor of the Special Committee holding up the timing of the transaction to try to find a higher bidder. This process has gone on for seven months now and I think the general consensus is that it's gone on long enough. Thank you.
Christy Shue - Harbin Electric Inc. - EVP, Finance and Investor Relations Thank you, Chad. We will pass your message and the shareholders' message to the Special Committee. Okay, and thank you for your interest in the Company. Okay, thanks, everybody, for coming to our first-quarter earnings conference call. If you have follow-up questions regarding our business and operation please feel free to call me. And my number is 631-312-8612 for follow-up questions. Okay, thank you, everyone. (Spoken in foreign language).
Operator The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
385
FINAL TRANSCRIPT
May. 11. 2011 / 1:00PM, HRBN - Q1 2011 Harbin Electric Inc Earnings Conference Call
DISCLAIMER
Thomson Reuters reserves the right to make changes to documents, content, or other information on this web site without obligation to notify any person of such changes. In the conference calls upon which Event Transcripts are based, companies may make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items. Such forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those stated in any forward-looking statement based on a number of important factors and risks, which are more specifically identified in the companies' most recent SEC filings. Although the companies may indicate and believe that the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements are reasonable, any of the assumptions could prove inaccurate or incorrect and, therefore, there can be no assurance that the results contemplated in the forward-looking statements will be realized. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN EVENT TRANSCRIPTS IS A TEXTUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S CONFERENCE CALL AND WHILE EFFORTS ARE MADE TO PROVIDE AN ACCURATE TRANSCRIPTION, THERE MAY BE MATERIAL ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR INACCURACIES IN THE REPORTING OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THE CONFERENCE CALLS. IN NO WAY DOES THOMSON REUTERS OR THE APPLICABLE COMPANY ASSUME ANY RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS MADE BASED UPON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED ON THIS WEB SITE OR IN ANY EVENT TRANSCRIPT. USERS ARE ADVISED TO REVIEW THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S CONFERENCE CALL ITSELF AND THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S SEC FILINGS BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS. 2011, Thomson Reuters. All Rights Reserved. 4017385-2011-05-12T02:00:04.810
386
Mark Tobin, (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Steve Chen, (86)(21)6141-5757 schen@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA, (86) (21) 6141-5757 x 7825 ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
| HRBN - $17.96 - NASDAQ | Buy HRBN: First Take - 1Q11 Results Well Below Estimates; Conf Call Wed 9am ET
HRBN reported 1Q11 results that were well below our estimates. Downside was primarily due to the following factors: (a) lower than expected revenue; elevated operating expenses; and a higher than expected tax rate. A portion of the expenses appear to be non-recurring in nature, and we expect opex will decrease from current levels. We continue to view the pending privatization as the primary value driver for shares of HRBN. Management will host a conference call Wednesday at 9am ET.
Pro-forma EPS for all periods Revenue ($ millions) Yr Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q YEAR 2010 105.5A 105.4A 109.4A 106.2A 426.5A 2011E Curr 112.9E 122.5E 136.8E 140.1E 512.3E 2012E Curr 625.5E
1Q11 results. Revenue equaled $103.8M vs. ROTH/Consensus est. $112.9M/ $108.9M. Downside was primarily due to lower than expected sales of rotary motors from Weihai and Xi'an. Non-GAAP EPS equaled $0.41 vs. ROTH/ Consensus est. $0.65/$0.59. Non-GAAP EPS excludes $0.01 charge for the change in fair value of warrants and $0.06 bad debt expense. Earnings downside was primarily due to lower revenue, higher than expected operating expenses (opex of $14.0M is $4.1M higher than est.), and a 27.9% tax rate (exceeded our 15% est). A portion of the expenses appear to be non-recurring in nature, and we expect opex will decrease from current levels. Balance sheet. HRBN ended with 1Q11 with $122.8M in cash, vs. 98.7m at the end of 4Q10. Privatization remains the focus. We continue to view the pending privatization as the major value-driver for shares of HRBN. Conference call. Management will host a conference call on Wednesday at 9am ET. Dial in: 877-317-6789.
Aug-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
May-11
28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 Price
Feb-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Jun-10
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 3 to 4 of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 24 Corporate Plaza | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
Oct-10
Apr-11
Jul-10
387
VALUATION
Our $24 PT is based on the offer price of the proposed buy-out. Factors that may impede HRBN shares from reaching price target include s There are still numerous steps in the privatization process, some of which could lead to delays in completing the transaction. s Continued share weakness could lead to a lower takeout offer. s A slow-down in China''s economic growth and continued inflation could impact sales and compress margins.
RISKS
Change in macro policies in China. Two of HRBN''s major catalysts, oil pump for oilfield and linear motors for urban metro lines, can be largely affected by central and local government policies. The development of urban railways can experience delays that out of control of HRBN, such as delay in construction. Volatile raw materials costs HRBN is subject to market fluctuations and volatility of two major raw materials, copper and steel respectively.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Harbin Electric, Inc. develops, engineers, manufactures and sells an array of industrial electric motors, customized linear motors, controller automation systems, automobile specialty micro-motors, and other special motors. The Company operates, through its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Harbin Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd (HTFE). The Company offers three key product lines: industrial electric motors, linear motors and their integrated application systems, and automobile specialty micro-motors.
Page 2 of 4
388
Disclosures:
ROTH makes a market in shares of Harbin Electric, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral.
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 05/11/11 Count Percent 41 20.9 5 8.9 0 0
Count 196 56 2
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Not Covered (NC): ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high degree of risk and may not
Page 3 of 4
389
Page 4 of 4
390
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
China May 11, 2011
Closing Price (5/10/11): 12-Month Target Price: 52-Week Range: Market Cap (MM): Shares O/S (MM): Float (MM): Shares Short (MM): Avg. Vol. (000) Book Value/Share: Dividend/Yield: Risk Profile: Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Maxim Group FYE: December 2009A: GAAP 2010A: GAAP 2011E: GAAP 2012E: GAAP LT Earnings Growth Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Consensus-First Call FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Echo He, MD, PhD ehe@maximgrp.com $17.96 $24 $14.95 - $25.05 $562.1 31.3 14.4 6.6 498 $19.60 NA Medium Revenues ($M) 2011E 2012E $103.8A $122.1 $112.2 $134.7 $123.0 $140.4 $131.6 $150.4 $470.7 $547.6 Current Prior Current EPS EPS P/E $0.77 23.3 $2.46 7.3 $2.14 $2.52 8.4 $2.67 $2.96 6.7 15% GAAP Quarterly EPS Current Prior Current 2011E 2011E 2012E $0.34A $0.58 $0.48 $0.56 $0.66 $0.63 $0.67 $0.70 $0.68 $0.76 $0.74 $2.14 $2.52 $2.67 Quarterly EPS 2011E 2012E $0.34A $0.64 $0.64 $0.74 $0.77 $0.76 $0.81 $0.82 $2.80 $3.35 (212) 895-3718
Buy
1Q11 missed due to higher cost and expenses; Reducing EPS; Maintain Buy and $24 price target
Yesterday evening, HRBN reported 1Q11 results. Revenue was $103.8M, 1% below our estimate and 5% below consensus. EPS was $0.34, 18 cents below our estimate of $0.52 and 24 cents below consensus of $0.58. Total revenue was down 1.6% y/y mainly due to capacity constraint. Margins were lower due to increased raw material cost and higher expenses and taxes. We expect gross margin pressure to continue in the coming quarters. HRBNs gross margin was 29.1% in 1Q11, flat q/q but down from 33.9% a year ago. The margin pressure was mainly due to raw material price inflation. Per our recorded data, Chinas average manufacturers purchasing price increased by ~10% y/y in 1Q11, a growth rate much faster than the average selling price increase, 0.8% y/y. Higher expenses for good cause. R&D expense was substantially higher, 3.7% of total revenue vs. 0.6% in 1Q10. There was $3.1M dedicated to the development of an automated control system for linear servo motors, which is a new product that HRBN plans to launch by end of 2011. Higher SG&A expense, 9.7% of total revenue vs. 7% in 1Q10 included $1.7M incremental bad debt in Xian facility and $0.9M legal and financial advisory fees associated with the on-going LBO process. Reducing estimates. We are maintaining our revenue estimates for the rest of 2011 and 2012, as we believe HRBNs revenue growth should be supported by gradual capacity expansion in Weihai and Xian as well as new linear motor product sales. However, Chinas commodity price inflation and HRBNs increasing operating and tax expenses should negatively affect earnings. We are reducing our 2011 and 2012 EPS to $2.14 and $2.67, from prior $2.52 and $2.96, respectively. Our Buy recommendation is mainly based on the likely success of management LBO at $24/share. As of today, the buying parties, Chairman, a few other senior management and Abax Capital aggregately control ~46.1% of total companys equity. They have already secured $464M term loan from China Development Bank. We believe the transaction is more likely to close than fall through in the near future. At current levels, HRBN is trading at a premium to its U.S.-listed Chinese peers, although still at a large discount to its listed peers in Hong Kong and Mainland China.
Maxim Group LLC 405 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10174 www.maximgrp.com
SEE PAGES 6-8 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS 391
-3% (311) bps (48) bps -7% (720) bps (269) bps -1% (89) bps -1% -1% (100) bps (8) bps 363% 294 1% 20 29% -18% (1,269) bps (322) bps 18% 60% bps bps
43% 47% 45% $ 105.5 $ 104.8 $ 103.8 243% -1% -2% (69.7) (74.2) (73.6) 35.7 227% 33.9% (0.6) 0.6% (7.4) 7.0% (8.0) 27.7 246% 26.3% 1.1 (1.6) (0.2) (0.8) 27.0 (4.1) 30.6 -14% 29.2% (0.8) 0.8% (10.0) 9.5% (10.8) 19.8 -29% 18.9% 1.0 (1.2) (0.2) 19.5 (3.3) 30.2 -15% 29.1% (3.9) 3.7% (10.1) 9.7% (14.0) 16.3 -41% 15.7% 1.1 (1.9) (0.4) (1.2) 15.0 (4.2)
397% -23% 26% 1,094 bps -33% 10 bps -33% (506) bps
Tax Rate 15.1% 17.0% 27.9% Net income before noncontrolling interest 22.9 16.2 10.8 Minority interests (2.4) (0.0) As % of net income 8.7% 0.0% 0.1% Net income 20.6 16.2 10.8 Y/Y Growth 137% -21% -47% Net Margin 19.5% 15.5% 10.4% Foreign currency translation adjustment 0.1 2.4 Change in fair value of derivative instrument (or Reclassification adjustment for gain on sales of Comprehensive income 20.6 16.2 13.3 Weighted average shares outstanding Basic 31.1 31.2 31.3 Diluted 31.4 31.3 31.4 EPS (to controlling interest) Basic $ 0.66 $ 0.52 $ 0.35 Diluted $ 0.66 $ 0.52 $ 0.34 Y/Y Growth 68% -21% -47%
-18%
-33% -33%
392
-5%
-3%
-14%
-6%
-14%
-7%
Diluted GAAP EPS $ 2.52 $ 2.14 -15% y/y Growth 2% -13% Source: Thomson One, Bloomberg and Maxim Group estimates.
393
Chinese Industrial Companies China Automotive CAAS A-Power APWR FushiCopperweld FSIN Lihua International LIWA Shengdatech SDTH Wonder Auto WATG ChemSpec CPC China Gerui Adv. Materia CHOP SORL Auto Parts SORL Average
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
7.9x 14.4x 6.0x 5.8x 7.2x 5.6x 7.9x 4.8x 5.2x 7.2x
7.2x 5.5x 6.7x 4.5x 6.0x 4.2x 8.0x 4.1x 4.6x 5.6x
5.9x 2.9x 5.6x 4.5x 5.1x 3.5x 7.1x 3.4x 4.1x 4.7x
HK Listed China Motor Companies Harbin Power Equipment 1133-HK $ Shanghai Electric Group 2727-HK $ Dongfang Electric Group 1072-HK $ Chongqing Machinery & E2722-HK $ Shanghai Prime Machine 2345-HK $ Average
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
China Mainland Listed China Motor Companies Xiangtan Electric 600416-S $ 4.03 $ Zhejiang Founder Motor 002196-S $ 2.41 $ BroadOcean 002249-S $ 3.61 $ Shanghai Electric Group 601727-S $ 1.14 $ Dongfang Electric Group 600875-S $ 4.11 $ Average US/International Motor Companies Siemens SI $ 138.94 ABB ABB $ 26.68 Emerson Electric EMR $ 55.37 Illinois Tool Works ITW $ 58.29 Cummins CMI $ 118.41 Magna International MGA $ 52.29 Rockwell Automation ROK $ 86.38 Lear Corporation LEA $ 51.90 Regal Beloit RBC $ 73.24 Smith AO AOS $ 43.36 Franklin Electric FELE $ 44.23 Average
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ -$
$ 120,701 $ 61,097 $ 41,703 $ 29,290 $ 23,398 $ 5,896 $ 12,318 $ 2,423 $ 2,820 $ 1,323 $ 1,029
$ 6.09 $ 1.25 $ 2.69 $ 3.08 $ 5.17 $ 4.34 $ 3.05 $ 4.42 n/a $ 2.87 $ 1.94
$ 11.18 $ 1.55 $ 3.27 $ 3.94 $ 7.95 $ 5.04 $ 4.53 $ 5.18 n/a $ 2.09 $ 2.44
$ 10.67 $ 1.90 $ 3.86 $ 4.59 $ 9.55 $ 5.59 $ 5.36 $ 5.96 n/a -$ 2.44 $ 2.82
22.8x 21.3x 20.6x 18.9x 22.9x 12.1x 28.3x 11.8x -15.1x 22.8x 19.7x
12.4x 17.2x 16.9x 14.8x 14.9x 10.4x 19.1x 10.0x -20.7x 18.1x 15.5x
13.0x 14.1x 14.3x 12.7x 12.4x 9.4x 16.1x 8.7x 17.8x 15.7x 13.4x
394
19.8 20.1 19.3 17.0 76.3 19.3 18.1 19.3 20.4 77.2 86.8 60% 74% 18% -14% 27% -3% -10% 0% 20% 1% 12% 56% 19% 19% 18% 16% 18% 19% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 18.3 16.2 15.2 15.3 14.0 60.8 15.5 14.7 15.3 16.1 61.7 67.9 166% 78% 81% -18% 51% -4% (3.0%) 0% 15% 2% 10% 28% 15% 14% 14% 13% 14% 15% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 22.5 23.6 23.5 23.7 93.2 21.8 25.9 27.0 30.8 105.5 125.7 107% 39% 14% 3% 31% -3% 10% 15% 30% 13% 19% 0% 21% 22% 21% 22% 22% 21% 23% 22% 23% 22% 23% 45.0 44.6 48.9 49.9 188.5 46.3 51.3 58.7 62.4 218.7 258.9 13% 6% 11% 12% 11% 3% 15% 20% 25% 16% 18% 0% 0% 20% 43% 42% 45% 47% 44% 45% 46% 48% 47% 46% 47% 4.9 $ 23.6 $ 40.4 $ 65.4 $ 120.8 $ 223.2 $ 105.5 $ 105.4 $ 109.4 $ 106.2 $ 426.5 $ 103.8 $ 112.2 $ 123.0 $ 131.6 $ 470.7 $ 547.6 387% 71% 62% 85% 85% 243% 175% 133% -1% 91% (1.6%) 6% 12% 24% 10% 16% (2.3) (12.1) (20.8) (33.0) (73.3) (146.6) (69.7) (70.1) (75.8) (75.1) (290.8) (73.6) (80.4) (87.6) (94.1) (335.7) (391.9) 2.6 52.9% (0.1) 1.9% (0.2) 3.8% (0.3) 2.3 47.1% 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0% 2.3 0.0% 2.3 47.6% 2.2 6.4 6.4 0.36 0.36 0.1 2.4 48.6% 8.28 $ $ 11.6 350% 48.9% (0.3) 1.4% (1.3) 5.3% (1.6) 10.0 42.1% 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0% 10.0 0.0% 10.0 333% 42.3% 0.5 11.1 14.9 15.1 0.67 $ 0.66 $ 82% 0.4 10.3 43.7% 8.07 19.7 70% 48.6% (1.5) 3.7% (4.2) 10.3% (5.7) 14.0 34.6% 0.0 (2.5) 4.4 18.4 0.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 84% 45.6% 1.0 19.5 16.6 18.3 32.4 65% 49.6% (1.1) 1.6% (7.7) 11.7% (8.7) 23.7 36.3% (0.2) (6.6) (6.8) 16.9 0.0% 16.9 0.0% 16.9 (8%) 25.8% 7.2 13.2 17.1 18.6 47.5 46% 39.3% (1.2) 1.0% (11.9) 9.9% (13.1) 34.4 45% 28.5% 1.6 (6.1) (4.5) 29.9 (4.5) 15.1% 25.4 0.0% 25.4 50% 21.0% 9.5 40.0 20.2 21.3 76.6 61% 34.3% (2.1) 0.9% (18.7) 8.4% (20.8) 55.8 62% 25.0% 5.5 (12.3) (24.9) 30.9 (7.8) 25.2% 23.1 (3.5) 11.3% 19.6 (23%) 8.8% (0.1) 16.3 25.6 25.7 35.7 227% 33.9% (0.6) 0.6% (7.4) 7.0% (8.0) 27.7 246% 26.3% 1.1 (1.6) (0.8) 27.0 (4.1) 15.1% 22.9 (2.4) 8.7% 20.6 137% 19.5% 0.1 20.6 31.1 31.4 0.66 $ 0.66 $ 68% 3.3 0.3 31.3 6.84 35.3 175% 33.5% (0.4) 0.3% (6.9) 6.5% (7.2) 28.1 219% 26.6% 1.3 (1.0) 1.4 29.5 (3.8) 12.9% 25.7 (0.0) 0.0% 25.7 NM 24.4% 1.3 27.0 31.1 31.3 0.83 $ 0.82 $ NM 2.8 0.3 31.1 6.84 33.6 100% 30.7% (1.7) 1.5% (10.1) 9.2% (11.7) 21.9 68% 20.0% 0.7 (1.1) (0.7) 21.2 (3.3) 15.6% 17.9 (0.0) 0.1% 17.9 NM 16.3% 5.6 23.5 31.1 31.3 31.1 -14% 29.2% (0.8) 0.8% (14.6) 13.8% (15.4) 15.6 (39.7%) 14.7% 2.3 (0.8) 0.9 16.6 (3.8) 22.7% 12.8 (0.1) 0.4% 12.7 -31% 12.0% 6.7 19.4 31.1 31.3 135.7 77% 31.8% (3.4) 0.8% (39.0) 9.1% (42.4) 93.3 67% 21.9% 5.5 (4.6) 0.8 94.2 (14.9) 15.8% 79.2 (2.4) 2.6% 76.8 291% 18.0% 13.7 90.5 31.1 31.3 30.2 (15%) 29.1% (3.9) 3.7% (10.1) 9.7% (14.0) 16.3 (41%) 15.7% 1.1 (1.9) (1.2) 15.0 (4.2) 27.9% 10.8 (0.0) 0.1% 10.8 (47.4%) 10.4% 2.4 13.3 31.3 31.4 31.9 -10% 28.4% (1.3) 1.2% (10.3) 9.2% (11.7) 20.2 (28%) 18.0% 1.2 (1.9) (1.2) 19.1 (3.8) 20.0% 15.2 0.0% 15.2 (40.6%) 13.6% 15.2 31.3 31.4 35.4 5% 28.8% (1.2) 1.0% (9.0) 7.3% (10.2) 25.2 15% 20.5% 1.3 (1.9) (1.0) 24.1 (4.3) 18.0% 19.8 0.0% 19.8 11% 16.1% 19.8 31.4 31.5 0.63 $ 0.63 $ 10% 2.9 0.1 28.2 6.51 37.5 21% 28.5% (1.3) 1.0% (9.5) 7.2% (10.8) 26.7 71% 20.3% 1.4 (1.9) (0.9) 25.8 (4.4) 17.0% 21.4 0.0% 21.4 69% 16.3% 21.4 31.4 31.6 135.0 -1% 28.7% (7.8) 1.7% (38.9) 8.3% (46.6) 88.4 -5% 18.8% 5.1 (7.7) (4.4) 84.0 (16.7) 19.9% 67.3 (0.0) 0.0% 67.3 -12% 14.3% 67.3 31.3 31.5 155.7 15% 28.4% (4.4) 0.8% (41.3) 7.5% (45.7) 109.9 24% 20.1% 5.5 (7.7) (4.0) 106.0 (21.2) 20.0% 84.8 0.0% 84.8 26% 15.5% 84.8 31.6 31.7 2.68 2.67 25% 14.7 1.3 125.9 23.0% 6.36
60.3 22% 27% 40.2 19% 18% 71.4 157% 23% 32% $ 44.5
1.11 $ 0.99 $ 1.01 $ 0.91 $ 53% (10%) 2.2 6.2 0.9 1.6 17.1 42.3% 7.80 31.4 48.1% 7.30
1.25 $ 0.77 $ 1.19 $ 0.77 $ 31% (35.7%) 7.7 17.0 1.8 1.2 43.8 36.3% 6.83 74.1 33.2% 6.84
0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.47 $ 0.35 $ 0.49 $ 0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.46 $ 0.34 $ 0.48 $ NM -25% 221% (47.4%) (40.8%) 3.1 2.3 11.5 2.9 2.9 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.1 0.1 25.2 6.84 18.2 6.60 105.8 24.8% 6.76 19.3 6.57 23.2 6.54
0.68 $ 2.15 $ 0.68 $ 2.14 $ 54% -13% 2.9 11.5 0.1 0.4 29.7 6.48 100.4 21.3% 6.48
395
Source: Investars.com
As of:
% of Coverage Universe
5/11/2011
% of Ratings that Firm received Banking fees 24.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Performance* Buy Hold Sell Expected total return of 15% or more over next 12 months Expected total return of plus or minus 14% over next 12 months Expected total negative return of at least 15% over next 12 months
* Relative to Nasdaq Composite. An Under Review (UR) rating represents a stock that the Firm has temporarily placed under review due to a material change.
Maxim Group makes a market in Harbin Electric, Inc. Maxim Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Harbin Electric, Inc. in the next 3 months.
I, Echo He, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firms total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. Valuation Methods: One or more of the following valuation methods are used by Maxim Group analysts in making a ratings or price projection: Analysis of companies P/E ratio, price/book ratio, earnings expectations or sales growth as they relate within an industry group or to the broader market, enterprise value/sales, Individual sector analysis, sum of the parts analysis and discounted cash flow. Price Target Risks: Investment risks associated with the achievement of the price target include, but are not limited to, the companys failure to achieve our earnings and revenue estimates, unforeseen macroeconomic and/or industry events that adversely impact demand for the companys products and services, product obsolescence, the companys ability to recruit and retain competent personnel, changes in investor sentiment
396
RISK RATINGS
Risk ratings take into account both fundamental criteria and price volatility. Speculative Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to early-stage companies with minimal to no revenues, lack of earnings, balance sheet concerns, and/or a short operating history. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be significantly above the industry. Price Volatility: Because of the inherent fundamental criteria of the companies falling within this risk category, the price volatility is expected to be significant with the possibility that the investment could eventually be worthless. Speculative stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. High Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies having below-average revenue and earnings visibility, negative cash flow, and low market cap or public float. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be above the industry. Price volatility: The price volatility of companies falling within this category is expected to be above the industry. High-risk stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. Medium Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to approximate the industry average. Low Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have above-average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to be below the industry.
397
398
Mark Tobin, (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Steve Chen, schen@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA, ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
HRBN: Lowering Est. on Tempered Outlook & Higher Opex; Buy-out Still the Focus
We are substantially lowering our estimates after HRBN reported weaker than expected 1Q11 results. Downside was driven by lower than expected revenue from rotary motors (Weihai and Xi'an), higher operating expenses, and higher tax rate. While we anticipate recovery from Q1 levels, our outlook is tempered. We continue to view the pending privatization as the primary value driver for shares.
1Q11 results below est. Revenue equaled $103.8M vs. ROTH/Consensus est. of $112.9M/$108.9M; Non-GAAP EPS equaled $0.41, well below ROTH/ Consensus est. of $0.65/$0.59. Non-GAAP EPS excludes $0.4m associated with fair value change of warrants & 1.7m bad debt expense. Revenue downside was primarily due to weak sales of rotary motors at Weihai ($21.8M vs. est. $26.5M) and Xian ($46.3M vs. est. $49.5M). Gross margins remained flat sequentially at 29.1% (vs. 29.2% in 4Q & est. 30.8%) due to unfavorable product mix and rising raw material costs, within which Linear business margin deterioration was most dramatic (45.6% vs. 56.7% in 4Q10 & 63.1% in 3Q10). Operating expenses equaled $13.9M (vs. est. $9.9M), which included higher expense for new linear servo motors R&D, bad debt provision in Xian, privatization expenses, and elevated shipping costs. Finally, a higher effective tax rate due to the expiration of tax holidays contributed to the loss. Lowering estimates. We are substantially lowering our 2011 and 2012 estimates to reflect a more tempered sales outlook, expectations for elevated operating expenses, and a higher tax rate. In particular, we are scaling back our projections for linear motors and rotary motors, based on the expectation that Q1 weakness could persist. We anticipate SG&A and R&D expenses will remain elevated, albeit not at Q1 levels. Privatization. We continue to focus on HRBN's prospective privatization as the key value driver for shares. Management indicated that the special committee is reviewing the proposal, but no indication of expected timing was provided. We maintain our BUY rating and $24 price target, based on the offer price of the proposed buy-out.
Pro-forma EPS for all periods Revenue ($ millions) Yr Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q YEAR 2010 105.5A 105.4A 109.4A 106.2A 426.5A 2011E Curr Prev 103.8A 112.9E 115.3E 122.5E 126.7E 136.8E 131.1E 140.1E 476.8E 512.3E 2012E Curr Prev 578.3E 625.5E
Aug-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
May-11
28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 Price
Feb-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Jun-10
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 4 to 5 of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 24 Corporate Plaza | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
Oct-10
Apr-11
Jul-10
399
VALUATION
Our $24 PT is based on the offer price of the proposed buy-out. Factors that may impede HRBN shares from reaching our price target include: s There are still numerous steps in the privatization process, some of which could lead to delays in completing the transaction. s Continued share weakness could lead to a lower takeout offer. s A slow-down in China''s economic growth and continued inflation could impact sales and compress margins.
RISKS
Change in macro policies in China. Two of HRBN's major catalysts, oil pump for oilfield and linear motors for urban metro lines, can be largely affected by central and local government policies. The development of urban railways can experience delays that out of control of HRBN, such as delay in construction. Volatile raw materials costs HRBN is subject to market fluctuations and volatility of two major raw materials, copper and steel respectively.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Harbin Electric, Inc. develops, engineers, manufactures and sells an array of industrial electric motors, customized linear motors, controller automation systems, automobile specialty micro-motors, and other special motors. The Company operates, through its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Harbin Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd (HTFE). The Company offers three key product lines: industrial electric motors, linear motors and their integrated application systems, and automobile specialty micro-motors.
MENTIONED COMPANIES
Page 2 of 5
400
FY07
Revenue Linear Motors Automobile specialty micro-motors Controllers and other special motors Rotary industrial motors (Weihai Hengda) Simo Motor Total Revenue yoy growth % Cost of Sales Gross Profit gross margin% Operating Expenses Selling, General and Administrative Expenses as % of revenue Research and Development Expenses as % of revenue Income From Operations operating margin yoy growth % Other Income(Expenses) Interest Income/expense-net Realized Gain/loss on Sale of Marketable Securities Non-operating Income/expense, Net Other Income/expense-net Loss on cross currency hedge settlement Gain on debt extinguishment Change in Fair Value of Warrants Loss from disposal of subdivision Earnings before Taxes Provision for Income Tax effective tax rate Minority Interest Net Income (Loss) net margin % yoy growth % Non GAAP Net Income* net margin % yoy growth % Diluted EPS yoy growth % Non GAAP EPS yoy growth % Diluted weighted average shares outstanding EBITDA 36,626 10,464 18,313 0 0 65,403 62% (32,968) 32,435 49.6%
FY08
46,950 34,628 11,664 27,578 0 120,820 85% (73,343) 47,477 39.3%
Q1'09A
12,382 6,114 1,383 10,846 0 30,725 36.8% (19,801) 10,924 35.6%
Q2'09A
11,547 8,555 1,343 16,918 0 38,363 60.1% (25,500) 12,863 33.5%
Q3'09A
16,426 8,448 1,408 20,650 0 46,932 18.3% (30,171) 16,761 35.7%
Q4'09A
20,371 18,441 643 23,694 44,065 107,214 208.6% (71,150) 36,064 33.6%
FY09
60,726 41,558 4,777 72,109 44,065 223,234 84.8% (146,622) 76,612 34.3%
Q1'10A
19,831 16,245 1,899 22,468 45,042 105,485 243.3% (69,743) 35,742 33.9%
Q2'10A
20,138 15,183 2,003 23,512 44,599 105,436 174.8% (70,104) 35,332 33.5%
Q3'10A
19,356 15,310 2,296 23,511 48,881 109,355 133.0% (75,780) 33,575 30.7%
Q4'10A
17,009 14,030 1,468 23,757 49,942 106,206 -0.9% (75,142) 31,064 29.2%
FY10A
76,334 60,767 7,666 93,249 188,465 426,481 91.0% (290,768) 135,713 31.8%
Q1'11A
19,261 15,532 961 21,770 46,305 103,829 -1.6% (73,626) 30,204 29.1%
Q2'11E
19,918 17,325 2,043 24,688 51,289 115,263 9.3% (81,293) 33,970 29.5%
Q3'11E
22,118 20,475 2,985 25,862 55,236 126,676 15.8% (88,818) 37,858 29.9%
Q4'11E
21,426 22,050 2,348 27,321 57,932 131,078 23.4% (91,922) 39,157 29.9%
FY11E
82,723 75,382 8,338 99,641 210,763 476,847 11.8% (335,658) 141,189 29.6%
FY12E
101,165 97,020 8,711 119,569 251,861 578,326 21.3% (404,886) 173,440 30.0%
(6,620) 0 (189) 0 0 0 0 0 16,903 0 0.0% 16,903 25.8% -8% 16,903 25.8% 40% $0.91 -10% $0.91 37% 18,635 29,863
(6,066) 0 218 1,358 0 0 0 0 29,903 (4,524) 15.1% 25,379 21.0% 50% 25,379 21.0% 50% $1.19 31% $1.19 31% 21,324 42,066
(1,441) 0 0 539 0 0 2,573 0 9,697 (1,043) 10.8% 8,654 28.2% 62% 6,081 19.8% 14% $0.39 46% $0.27 2% 22,159 10,245
(843) 0 0 2,101 0 0 (14,015) 0 (3,941) (1,479) -37.5% (5,419) -14.1% -187% 7,423 19.3% 19% -$0.24 -178% $0.33 7% 22,341 10,688
(8,478) 0 0 1,063 (9,000) 4,155 (737) 0 46 (1,954) 4209.2% (1,908) -4.1% -125% 10,953 23.3% 41% -$0.07 -121% $0.40 20% 27,077 23,101
(1,553) 0 0 1,759 0 0 (1,037) 0 25,131 (3,320) 13.2% (3,491) 18,320 17.1% 203% 19,356 18.1% 220% $0.59 114% $0.62 127% 31,240 28,806
(12,316) 0 0 5,462 (9,000) 4,155 (13,215) 0 30,934 (7,796) 25.2% (3,491) 19,647 8.8% -23% 43,813 19.6% 73% $0.77 -36% $1.71 43% 25,672 72,840
(1,647) 0 0 1,119 0 0 (234) 0 26,969 (4,063) 15.1% (2,352) 20,554 19.5% 137% 20,788 19.7% 242% $0.66 68% $0.66 142% 31,354 31,037
(978) 0 0 1,327 0 0 1,657 (623) 29,466 (3,791) 12.9% (1) 25,675 24.4% -574% 24,641 23.4% 232% $0.82 N/A $0.79 137% 31,343 30,866
(1,133) 0 0 740 0 0 (302) 0 21,158 (3,296) 15.6% 11 17,873 16.3% -1037% 20,208 18.5% 85% $0.57 N/A $0.65 60% 31,282 24,943
(836) 0 0 2,304 0 0 (547) 0 16,569 (3,765) 22.7% (91) 12,714 12.0% -31% 19,603 18.5% 1% $0.41 -31% $0.62 1% 31,376 17,938
(4,593) 0 0 5,490 0 0 574 (623) 94,163 (14,915) 15.8% (2,432) 76,815 18.0% 291% 85,240 20.0% 95% $2.46 221% $2.72 60% 31,282 104,784
(1,924) 0 0 1,121 0 0 (434) 0 15,015 (4,195) 27.9% (14) 10,806 10.4% -47% 12,939 12.5% -38% $0.34 -47% $0.41 -38% 31,364 22,726
(2,000) 0 0 1,000 0 0 0 0 20,176 (4,035) 20.0% 0 16,141 14.0% -37% 16,141 14.0% -34% $0.51 -37% $0.51 -35% 31,458 27,650
(2,000) 0 0 1,000 0 0 0 0 23,937 (4,787) 20.0% 0 19,150 15.1% 7% 19,150 15.1% -5% $0.61 6% $0.61 -6% 31,552 31,411
(2,000) 0 0 1,000 0 0 0 0 25,180 (5,036) 20.0% 0 20,144 15.4% 58% 20,144 15.4% 3% $0.64 57% $0.64 2% 31,647 32,656
(7,924) 0 0 4,121 0 0 (434) 0 84,309 (18,054) 21.4% 0 66,240 13.9% -14% 66,674 14.0% -22% $2.10 -14% $2.12 -22% 31,505 114,443
(8,000) 0 0 4,000 0 0 0 0 115,036 (23,007) 20.0% 0 92,028 15.9% 39% 92,028 15.9% 38% $2.89 37% $2.89 36% 31,885 149,036
*Pro-forma net income excludes stock compensation, derivative valuation, and one-time items Source: Company reports, Roth Capital Partners estimates Mark Tobin (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com
Page 3 of 5
401
Disclosures:
ROTH makes a market in shares of Harbin Electric, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral.
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 05/11/11 Count Percent 41 20.9 5 8.9 0 0
Count 196 56 2
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Not Covered (NC): ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high degree of risk and may not
Page 4 of 5
402
Page 5 of 5
403
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
China May 3, 2011
Closing Price (5/2/11): 12-Month Target Price: 52-Week Range: Market Cap (MM): Shares O/S (MM): Float (MM): Shares Short (MM): Avg. Vol. (000) Book Value/Share: Dividend/Yield: Risk Profile: Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Maxim Group FYE: December 2009A: GAAP 2010A: GAAP 2011E: GAAP 2012E: GAAP LT Earnings Growth $19.59 $24 $14.95 - $25.05 $613.2 31.3 20.1 6.6 415 $18.50 NA Medium Revenues ($M) 2011E 2012E $104.8 $123.6 $112.2 $134.7 $123.0 $140.4 $131.6 $150.4 $471.6 $549.0 Current Current EPS P/E $0.77 25.4 $2.46 8.0 $2.52 7.8 $2.96 6.6 15% GAAP Quarterly EPS
Buy
Maxim Group Current Current FYE: December 2011E 2012E 1Q $0.52 $0.64 2Q $0.56 $0.74 3Q $0.67 $0.76 $0.76 $0.82 4Q FY $2.52 $2.96 Consensus-First Call Quarterly EPS FYE: December 2011E 2012E 1Q $0.58 $0.64 2Q $0.64 $0.74 3Q $0.77 $0.76 $0.81 $0.82 4Q FY $2.80 $3.35 Echo He, MD, PhD ehe@maximgrp.com (212) 895-3718
Maxim Group LLC 405 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10174 www.maximgrp.com
SEE PAGES 4-6 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS 404
Chinese Industrial Companies China Automotive CAAS A-Power APWR FushiCopperweld FSIN Lihua International LIWA Shengdatech SDTH Wonder Auto WATG ChemSpec CPC China Gerui Adv. Material CHOP SORL Auto Parts SORL Average
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
8.4x 15.1x 6.4x 5.8x 7.2x 5.8x 7.9x 4.9x 5.0x 7.4x
7.7x 5.7x 7.0x 4.5x 6.0x 4.3x 8.0x 4.2x 4.4x 5.5x
6.3x 3.1x 6.0x 4.5x 5.1x 3.6x 7.0x 3.5x 4.0x 4.8x
HK Listed China Motor Companies Harbin Power Equipment 1133-HK $ Shanghai Electric Group 2727-HK $ Dongfang Electric Group 1072-HK $ Chongqing Machinery & E2722-HK $ Shanghai Prime Machiner2345-HK $ Average
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
China Mainland Listed China Motor Companies Xiangtan Electric 600416-S $ 3.98 $ 1,209 Zhejiang Founder Motor 002196-S $ 2.39 $ 259 BroadOcean 002249-S $ 3.91 $ 1,675 Shanghai Electric Group 601727-S $ 1.12 $ 10,988 Dongfang Electric Group 600875-S $ 3.84 $ 6,388 Average US/International Motor Companies Siemens SI $ 144.83 $ 125,818 ABB ABB $ 26.94 $ 61,693 Emerson Electric EMR $ 60.81 $ 45,800 Illinois Tool Works ITW $ 58.03 $ 29,159 Cummins CMI $ 118.29 $ 23,374 Magna International MGA $ 51.82 $ 5,843 Rockwell Automation ROK $ 86.99 $ 12,405 Lear Corporation LEA $ 52.24 $ 2,439 Regal Beloit RBC $ 75.52 $ 2,908 Smith AO AOS $ 43.63 $ 1,332 Franklin Electric FELE $ 44.20 $ 1,028 Average Source: Thomson One, Bloomberg and Maxim Group estimates.
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ -$
$ 6.09 $ 1.25 $ 2.69 $ 3.08 $ 5.17 $ 4.34 $ 3.05 $ 4.42 n/a $ 2.87 $ 1.94
$ 9.62 $ 1.53 $ 3.29 $ 3.94 $ 7.95 $ 4.74 $ 4.54 $ 5.14 n/a $ 2.09 $ 2.29
$ 10.29 $ 1.89 $ 3.86 $ 4.57 $ 9.55 $ 5.44 $ 5.37 $ 5.82 n/a -$ 2.44 $ 2.72
23.8x 21.6x 22.6x 18.8x 22.9x 12.0x 28.5x 11.8x -15.2x 22.8x 20.0x
15.1x 17.6x 18.5x 14.7x 14.9x 10.9x 19.2x 10.2x -20.8x 19.3x 16.1x
14.1x 14.3x 15.8x 12.7x 12.4x 9.5x 16.2x 9.0x 17.9x 16.3x 13.8x
405
4.9 (2.3) 2.6 52.9% (0.1) 1.9% (0.2) 3.8% (0.3) 2.3 47.1% 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0% 2.3 0.0% 2.3 47.6% 2.2 6.4 6.4 0.36 0.36 0.1 2.4 48.6% 8.28
23.6 $ 387% (12.1) 11.6 350% 48.9% (0.3) 1.4% (1.3) 5.3% (1.6) 10.0 42.1% 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0% 10.0 0.0% 10.0 333% 42.3% 0.5 11.1 14.9 15.1
40.4 $ 71% (20.8) 19.7 70% 48.6% (1.5) 3.7% (4.2) 10.3% (5.7) 14.0 34.6% 0.0 (2.5) 4.4 18.4 0.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 84% 45.6% 1.0 19.5 16.6 18.3
76.3 16.9 18.1 19.3 20.4 74.8 18.5 20.8 21.3 23.5 84.2 27% -15% -10% 0% 20% -2% 10% 15% 10% 15% 13% 56% 18% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 16% 15% 18.3 60.8 13.8 14.7 15.3 16.1 60.0 15.2 16.2 16.8 17.7 66.0 51% (15.0%) (3.0%) 0% 15% -1% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 28% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 93.2 22.5 25.9 27.0 30.8 106.2 28.1 31.1 31.9 35.5 126.5 31% 0% 10% 15% 30% 14% 25% 20% 18% 15% 19% 0% 22% 21% 23% 22% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 24% 23% 188.5 49.5 51.3 58.7 62.4 221.9 59.5 64.1 67.5 71.8 262.8 11% 10% 15% 20% 25% 18% 20% 25% 15% 15% 18% 0% 0% 20% 44% 47% 46% 48% 47% 47% 48% 48% 48% 48% 48% 65.4 $ 120.8 $ 223.2 $ 426.5 $ 104.8 $ 112.2 $ 123.0 $ 131.6 $ 471.6 $ 123.6 $ 134.7 $ 140.4 $ 150.4 $ 549.0 62% 85% 85% 91% (0.7%) 6% 12% 24% 11% 18% 20% 14% 14% 16% (33.0) (73.3) (146.6) (290.8) (74.2) (79.8) (87.2) (93.6) (334.8) (87.8) (95.6) (99.7) (106.9) (390.0) 32.4 65% 49.6% (1.1) 1.6% (7.7) 11.7% (8.7) 23.7 36.3% (0.2) (6.6) (6.8) 16.9 0.0% 16.9 0.0% 16.9 (8%) 25.8% 7.2 13.2 17.1 18.6 47.5 46% 39.3% (1.2) 1.0% (11.9) 9.9% (13.1) 34.4 45% 28.5% 1.6 (6.1) (4.5) 29.9 (4.5) 15.1% 25.4 0.0% 25.4 50% 21.0% 9.5 40.0 20.2 21.3 76.6 61% 34.3% (2.1) 0.9% (18.7) 8.4% (20.8) 55.8 62% 25.0% 5.5 (12.3) (24.9) 30.9 (7.8) 25.2% 23.1 (3.5) 11.3% 19.6 (23%) 8.8% (0.1) 16.3 25.6 25.7 135.7 77% 31.8% (3.4) 0.8% (39.0) 9.1% (42.4) 93.3 67% 21.9% 5.5 (4.6) 0.8 94.2 (14.9) 15.8% 79.2 (2.4) 2.6% 76.8 291% 18.0% 13.7 90.5 31.1 31.3 30.6 (14%) 29% (0.8) 0.8% (10.0) 9.5% (10.8) 19.8 (29%) 18.9% 1.0 (1.2) (0.2) 19.5 (3.3) 17.0% 16.2 0.0% 16.2 (21.2%) 15.5% 16.2 31.2 31.3 32.4 -8% 29% (0.9) 0.8% (10.3) 9.2% (11.2) 21.2 (25%) 18.9% 1.2 (1.0) 0.2 21.4 (3.6) 17.0% 17.7 0.0% 17.7 (31.0%) 15.8% 17.7 31.2 31.4 35.8 7% 29% (0.9) 0.8% (9.0) 7.3% (9.9) 25.9 19% 21.1% 0.7 (1.2) (0.5) 25.5 (4.3) 17.0% 21.1 0.0% 21.1 18% 17.2% 21.1 31.3 31.5 0.68 $ 0.67 $ 18% 37.9 22% 29% (1.1) 0.8% (9.5) 7.2% (10.5) 27.4 75% 20.8% 2.8 (1.2) 1.6 29.0 (4.9) 17.0% 24.0 0.0% 24.0 89% 18.3% 24.0 31.4 31.5 0.77 $ 0.76 $ 73% 136.8 1% 29.0% (3.7) 0.8% (38.7) 8.2% (42.4) 94.3 1% 20.0% 5.6 (4.6) 1.0 95.3 (16.2) 17.0% 79.1 0.0% 79.1 3% 16.8% 79.1 31.3 31.4 2.53 $ 2.52 $ 2% 13.5 1.2 109.0 23.1% 6.48 35.7 17% 29% (1.0) 0.8% (10.1) 8.2% (11.1) 24.6 25% 19.9% 1.0 (1.2) (0.2) 24.5 (4.2) 17.0% 20.3 0.0% 20.3 25% 16.4% 20.3 31.4 31.6 0.65 $ 0.64 $ 24% 39.0 20% 29% (1.1) 0.8% (10.1) 7.5% (11.2) 27.9 31% 20.7% 1.5 (1.2) 0.3 28.1 (4.8) 17.0% 23.3 0.0% 23.3 32% 17.3% 23.3 31.5 31.7 0.74 $ 0.74 $ 31% 40.7 13% 29% (1.1) 0.8% (10.2) 7.3% (11.4) 29.3 13% 20.9% 0.8 (1.2) (0.4) 28.9 (4.9) 17.0% 24.0 0.0% 24.0 13% 17.1% 24.0 31.5 31.7 0.76 $ 0.76 $ 13% 43.5 15% 29% (1.2) 0.8% (11.0) 7.3% (12.2) 31.4 14% 20.9% 1.3 (1.2) 0.1 31.5 (5.3) 17.0% 26.1 0.0% 26.1 9% 17.4% 26.1 31.6 31.8 0.83 $ 0.82 $ 8% 159.0 16% 29.0% (4.4) 0.8% (41.5) 7.6% (45.9) 113.1 20% 20.6% 4.7 (4.8) (0.2) 113.0 (19.2) 17.0% 93.8 0.0% 93.8 18% 17.1% 93.8 31.5 31.7 2.98 2.96 18% 14.7 1.3 129.1 23.5% 6.36
60.3 22% 27% 40.2 19% 18% 71.4 157% 23% 32% $ 44.5
$ $
1.11 $ 0.99 $ 1.01 $ 0.91 $ 53% (10%) 2.2 6.2 0.9 1.6 17.1 42.3% 7.80 31.4 48.1% 7.30
1.25 $ 0.77 $ 2.47 $ 0.52 $ 0.57 $ 1.19 $ 0.77 $ 2.46 $ 0.52 $ 0.56 $ 31% (35.7%) 221% (21.1%) (31.1%) 7.7 17.0 11.5 1.8 1.2 1.0 43.8 36.3% 6.83 74.1 33.2% 6.84 105.8 24.8% 6.76
6.57
6.54
6.51
6.48
6.45
6.42
6.39
6.36
406
Source: Investars.com
As of:
% of Coverage Universe
5/3/2011
% of Ratings that Firm received Banking fees 24.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Performance* Buy Hold Sell Expected total return of 15% or more over next 12 months Expected total return of plus or minus 14% over next 12 months Expected total negative return of at least 15% over next 12 months
* Relative to Nasdaq Composite. An Under Review (UR) rating represents a stock that the Firm has temporarily placed under review due to a material change.
Maxim Group makes a market in Harbin Electric, Inc. Maxim Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Harbin Electric, Inc. in the next 3 months.
I, Echo He, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firms total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. Valuation Methods: One or more of the following valuation methods are used by Maxim Group analysts in making a ratings or price projection: Analysis of companies P/E ratio, price/book ratio, earnings expectations or sales growth as they relate within an industry group or to the broader market, enterprise value/sales, Individual sector analysis, sum of the parts analysis and discounted cash flow. Price Target Risks: Investment risks associated with the achievement of the price target include, but are not limited to, the companys failure to achieve our earnings and revenue estimates, unforeseen macroeconomic
407
RISK RATINGS
Risk ratings take into account both fundamental criteria and price volatility. Speculative Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to early-stage companies with minimal to no revenues, lack of earnings, balance sheet concerns, and/or a short operating history. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be significantly above the industry. Price Volatility: Because of the inherent fundamental criteria of the companies falling within this risk category, the price volatility is expected to be significant with the possibility that the investment could eventually be worthless. Speculative stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. High Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies having below-average revenue and earnings visibility, negative cash flow, and low market cap or public float. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be above the industry. Price volatility: The price volatility of companies falling within this category is expected to be above the industry. High-risk stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. Medium Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to approximate the industry average. Low Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have above-average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to be below the industry.
408
DISCLAIMERS
Some companies that Maxim Group LLC follows are emerging growth companies whose securities typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Maxim Group LLC research reports may not be suitable for some investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance. This communication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities mentioned herein. This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Maxim Group, LLC (Maxim). Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Maxim to be reliable, but Maxim makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. Maxim accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Maxim. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Maxim may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and Maxim is under no obligation to ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgment at its original date of publication by Maxim and are subject to change without notice. The price, value of and income from any of the securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. Securities recommended, offered or sold by Maxim: (1) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Company; (2) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution; and (2) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of principal invested. Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances; you may be required to pay more money to support these losses.
409
Mark Tobin, (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA, (86) (21) 6141-5757 x 7825 ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
Form 13D's filed this morning suggest that the financing for HRBN's privatization is in place and the deal is on track for completion at $24 per share, in our view. This morning, Form 13D's were filed by HRBN Chairman Yang and by Abax Global Capital Ltd. Key takeaways include:
s s
s s
Proposed $24 buyout price Received commitment for $400M term loan facility from China Development Bank Received commitment for up to $63.8M equity and debt financing from Abax Subject to customary closing conditions, including shareholder approval
EPS (Net): Pro-forma EPS for all periods Revenue ($ millions) Yr Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q YEAR 2010 105.5A 105.4A 109.4A 106.2A 426.5A 2011E Curr 112.9E 122.5E 136.8E 140.1E 512.3E 2012E Curr 625.5E
We believe today's announcement is the most significant for the HRBN privatization and view the remaining steps largely as formalities. We maintain our BUY rating and $24 price target.
28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12
Feb-11
Aug-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jan-11
Jun-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Jul-10
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on page 3 to 4 of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 24 Corporate Plaza | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
410
May 2, 2011
VALUATION
Our $24 PT is based on the offer price of the proposed buy-out. Factors that may impede HRBN shares from reaching price target include s There are still numerous steps in the privatization process, some of which could lead to delays in completing the transaction. s Continued share weakness could lead to a lower takeout offer. s A slow-down in China''s economic growth and continued inflation could impact sales and compress margins.
RISKS
Change in macro policies in China. Two of HRBN''s major catalysts, oil pump for oilfield and linear motors for urban metro lines, can be largely affected by central and local government policies. The development of urban railways can experience delays that out of control of HRBN, such as delay in construction. Volatile raw materials costs HRBN is subject to market fluctuations and volatility of two major raw materials, copper and steel respectively.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Harbin Electric, Inc. develops, engineers, manufactures and sells an array of industrial electric motors, customized linear motors, controller automation systems, automobile specialty micro-motors, and other special motors. The Company operates, through its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Harbin Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd (HTFE). The Company offers three key product lines: industrial electric motors, linear motors and their integrated application systems, and automobile specialty micro-motors.
Page 2 of 4
411
May 2, 2011
Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Disclosures:
ROTH makes a market in shares of Harbin Electric, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral.
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 05/02/11 Count Percent 41 20.3 5 8.3 0 0
Count 202 60 4
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Not Covered (NC): ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high degree of risk and may not
Page 3 of 4
412
May 2, 2011
be suitable for all investors. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the express written permission of ROTH. Copyright 2011. Member: FINRA/SIPC.
Page 4 of 4
413
Equity Research
Outperform
Company Profile:Aggressive Growth Symbol: HRBN (NASDAQ) Price: $18.72 (52-Wk.: $15-$25) Market Value (mil.): $560 Fiscal Year End: December Long-Term EPS Growth Rate: 25% Dividend/Yield: None 2010A Estimates EPS FY CY Valuation FY P/E CY P/E $2.72 2011E $2.72 $2.72 2012E NA NA
6.9x
6.9x 6.9x
NA NA
Trading Data (Thomson Financial) Shares Outstanding (mil.) 31 Float (mil.) 21 Average Daily Volume 404,003 Financial Data (Thomson Financial) Long-Term Debt/Total Capital (MRQ) 26.1 Book Value Per Share (MRQ) 5.0 Enterprise Value (mil.) 566.9 EBITDA (TTM) 103.0 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (TTM) 5.5x Return on Equity (TTM) 18.3 Two-Year Price Performance Chart
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0 12/31/09 12/31/10
China-based Harbin Electric is a leading manufacturer of electric motors in China, including linear motors, micro-motors, and rotary motors. Manufacturing operations are located in the cities of Harbin, Shanghai, Weihai, and Xian. The company generates about 90% of sales in China and 10% in international end-markets.
Please consult the last page of this report for all disclosures.
414
8/11/09 - O
12/31/10
Current Rating Distribution (as of 04/30/11) Coverage Universe Percent Outperform (Buy) Market Perform (Hold) Underperform (Sell) 58 31 1
Inv. Banking Relationships* Outperform (Buy) Market Perform (Hold) Underperform (Sell)
Percent 8 2 0
*Percentage of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients, defined as companies for which William Blair has received compensation for investment banking services within the past 12 months. Brian Drab, Liping Cai attests that 1) all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his/her personal views about any and all of the securities and companies covered by this report, and 2) no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed by him/her in this report. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prohibit us from doing so. Other than certain periodical industry reports, the majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as deemed appropriate by the analyst. Stock Rating: William Blair & Company, L.L.C. uses a three-point system to rate stocks. Individual ratings reflect the expected performance of the stock relative to the broader market over the next 12 months. The assessment of expected performance is a function of near-term company fundamentals, industry outlook, confidence in earnings estimates, valuation, and other factors. Outperform (O) stock expected to outperform the broader market over the next 12 months; Market Perform (M) stock expected to perform approximately in line with the broader market over the next 12 months; Underperform (U) stock expected to underperform the broader market over the next 12 months; Not Rated (NR) the stock is currently not rated. Company Profile: The William Blair research philosophy is focused on quality growth companies. Growth companies by their nature tend to be more volatile than the overall stock market. Company profile is a fundamental assessment, over a longer-term horizon, of the business risk of the company relative to the broader William Blair universe. Factors assessed include: 1) durability and strength of franchise (management strength and track record, market leadership, distinctive capabilities); 2) financial profile (earnings growth rate/consistency, cash flow generation, return on investment, balance sheet, accounting); 3) other factors such as sector or industry conditions, economic environment, confidence in long-term growth prospects, etc. Established Growth (E) Fundamental risk is lower relative to the broader William Blair universe; Core Growth (C) Fundamental risk is approximately in line with the broader William Blair universe; Aggressive Growth (A) Fundamental risk is higher relative to the broader William Blair universe.
415
416
Mark Tobin, (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Kun Tao, CFA, (949) 720-7149 ktao@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA, (86) (21) 6141-5757 x 7825 ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
China
U.S.-Listed China - Privatization Update (2nd Edition)
The attached industry report provides an update on the pending privatization activity within the U.S.-listed Chinese sector. Shares of some companies (CSR, FSIN, HRBN) are trading at meaningful discounts to the respective proposed buy-out price, while others maintain a narrower range. We believe the former group could present an attractive investment opportunity for eventdriven investors. There are currently six companies that have buy-out activities ongoing, three completed transactions, and one transaction that was abandoned. Since our initial report on this topic (dated March 31, 2011), there have been noteworthy events related to several of the pending transactions.
s
s s
On April 7, 2011, QXM announced that its proposed buy-out was abandoned permanently due to a lack of shareholder quorum. On April 15, 2011, TCM announced the completion of its acquisition by Hanmax and Fosun. On April 15, 2011, HRBN released a Form 8-K indicating that the Chairman expected to announce a $24 bid on April 18, 2011. As of the date of this report, no announcement has been made.
Important Disclosures & Regulation AC Certification(s) are located on the last page of this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 24 Corporate Plaza | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
417
CHINA
Qiao Xing Mobile Fushi Copperweld FSIN Harbin Electric HRBN Communication QXM
(3)
Tongjitang Chinese Medicines TCM Hanmax (controlled by CEO) / Fosun CEO & Director
Chariman & CEO, Chairman & CEO, Parent Company Qiao Abax Global Capital Baring Private Equity Xing Universal Resources, Inc. (Nasdaq: XING)
Announcement Date
Oct-28-2010
Nov-11-2010
Mar-07-2011
Mar-08-2011
Nov-03-2010
Oct-11-2010
Sep-09-2010
Oct-12-2009
Nov-01-2010
Mar-10-2008
23.0%
55.0%
NA (2)
20.9%
29.2%
31.1%
61.0%
39.1%
83.0%
39.2%
$10.00
$8.00
$6.50
$11.50
$24.00
$3.92
$1.90
$4.50
$10.20
$7.66
$6.32
$6.26
$4.10
$9.10
$19.96
$3.55
$1.28
$3.95
$6.60
Premium
31%
27%
NA
59%
26%
20%
10%
48%
14%
55%
--
Mar-21-2011
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Revised Price
--
$8.10
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
$7.28
$6.67
$4.51
$8.24
$20.29
--
--
--
--
-Completed on Feb24-2011
(10.1%)
NA
(15.5%) Under review by special committee; Buyers lined up financing, no intention to raise offer price (4)
--
--
--
--
Subject to Under review by shareholder vote, special committee expected to close by the end of Q3'11
Stephens Inc.
Houlihan Lokey
Barclays Capital
Not disclosed
Morgan Stanley Asia Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Limited Sheppard, Mullin, Richter & Hampton LLP / Thorp Alberga
Shearman & Sterling Shearman & Sterling Shearman & Sterling LLP / Maples and LLP LLP Calder
Not disclosed
NA
Premium of bid price above the closing price on previous trading day before announcement Not disclosed. Li Family and key management own 59.9% of CFSG shares outstanding The offer price is 1.9 shares of XING common stock plus $0.8 in cash, we convert to dollar value using XING's closing price on Sept-8-2010 HRBN's 8-K filed on April 15, 2011 cited CEO's indication that financing was lined-up
Page 2 of 6
418
CHINA
RISKS
Change in macro policies. CFSG's major revenues come from the iron and steel industry, and significant changes in the steel industry can impact the company business prospect. Concerns on over-capacity, horizontal consolidations, accompanied with imposed tariffs on steel exports, have placed the industry under close monitoring by the central government. Concentration risk. The company's revenue recognition and profit generation is currently highly relied upon its recently signed $92M total solution contract with Wuhan Iron and Steel, accounting for more than half of quarterly revenue. Any unexpected changes or progress delay in project execution will significantly impact CFSG's financial performance. Extended customer payment period. Depressed steel prices and continuous market consolidation have caused many steel makers facing challenging market conditions. Accordingly, extended customer payment period may have led to recent CFSG decrease in cash and increasing A/R balance.
RISKS
Volatile raw material prices. Fushi's selling prices are highly dependent on copper, aluminum and steel prices. Changes in these prices may adversely impact demand for FSIN's bi-metallic products and its operational results. Execution/integration risk. FSIN continues to integrate its acquired operations, including Copperweld, Shanghai Hongtai, and Dalian Jinchuan. Its overall global expansion strategy faces execution risk due to a variety of factors. Restatement risk. The company appointed KPMG as its independent auditor in January 2011, replacing Frazer Frost. Its first annual audit will be signed-off with the filing of the Company's 2010 Form 10-K which we expect will be filed in March 2011. The change in auditor could present risk of delayed filings or restatements, which could negatively impact share performance, in our opinion. Going private transaction risk. In November 2010, FSIN's Board of Directors received a going private proposal from its Chairman (Mr. Fu) and Abax Global Capital to acquire all of the outstanding shares of common stock for $11.50 per share. The inability to complete this transaction could negatively impact share performance. Management turnover. The company's current CFO, Craig Studwell, was appointed in October 2010. While we view Mr. Studwell as highly experienced and capable, we note that his tenure with FSIN is limited and he has yet to oversee the filing of an audited annual report for the company. Litigation risk. Associated with its going private proposal, a shareholder class action lawsuit was filed against the Company and certain officers and directors. This lawsuit could consume financial and management resources, presenting financial and business risk.
Page 3 of 6
419
CHINA
RISKS
Change in macro policies in China. Two of HRBN's major catalysts, oil pump for oilfield and linear motors for urban metro lines, can be largely affected by central and local government policies. The development of urban railways can experience delays that out of control of HRBN, such as delay in construction. Volatile raw materials costs. HRBN is subject to market fluctuations and volatility of two major raw materials, copper and steel respectively.
Page 4 of 6
420
CHINA
Disclosures:
Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. ROTH and/or its employees, officers, directors and owners own options, rights or warrants to purchase shares of Fushi Copperweld, Inc. stock. ROTH makes a market in shares of China Fire & Security Group, Inc., Fushi Copperweld, Inc. and Harbin Electric, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral.
Page 5 of 6
421
CHINA
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 04/20/11 Count Percent 38 19.3 5 8.2 0 0 0 0
Rating Buy [B] Neutral [N] Sell [S] Not Rated [NR]
Count 197 61 4 0
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Not Covered (NC): ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the express written permission of ROTH. Copyright 2011. Member: FINRA/SIPC.
Page 6 of 6
422
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
China April 14, 2011
Closing Price (4/13/11): 12-Month Target Price: 52-Week Range: Market Cap (MM): Shares O/S (MM): Float (MM): Shares Short (MM): Avg. Vol. (000) Book Value/Share: Dividend/Yield: Risk Profile: Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Maxim Group FYE: December 2009A: GAAP 2010A: GAAP 2011E: GAAP 2012E: GAAP LT Earnings Growth Maxim Group FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Consensus-First Call FYE: December 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY Echo He, MD, PhD ehe@maximgrp.com $18.60 $24 $14.95 - $25.05 $582.2 31.3 20.1 5.2 355 $18.50 NA Medium Revenues ($M) 2011E 2012E $104.8 $123.6 $112.2 $134.7 $123.0 $140.4 $131.6 $150.4 $471.6 $549.0 Current Current EPS P/E $0.77 24.2 $2.46 7.6 $2.52 7.4 $2.96 6.3 15% GAAP Quarterly EPS Current Current 2011E 2012E $0.52 $0.64 $0.56 $0.74 $0.67 $0.76 $0.76 $0.82 $2.52 $2.96 Quarterly EPS 2011E 2012E $0.60 $0.67 $0.69 $0.84 $0.80 $0.88 $0.81 $0.96 $2.91 $3.51 (212) 895-3718
Buy
LBO proposal may be nearing the end of the tunnel; Reiterate Buy rating and $24 price target
A brief history. On October 11, 2010, HRBNs Chairman and CEO, Tianfu Yang, who owns 31% of HRBN, announced a LBO proposal with Baring Private Equity Asia (Baring) as an exclusive partner and Goldman Sachs Asia as an advisor that committed to securing debt financing. The story took a drastic turn on November 23, 2010, when the agreement between the Chairman and Baring ended. Investors raised their doubts on whether the LBO could find financial support. Then, on January 11, 2011, Abax Global Capital (Abax) announced a 5.4% ownership of and Standstill Agreement with HRBN, suggesting a role for Abax in the LBO syndication. We believe that after more than six months, the time is near to see some evidence of debt and equity investment for the LBO. On the equity side, there is likely a limited number of investors, given that the Chairman intends to control as much equity as possible. On the debt side, we believe state-owned banks are more likely to play a role, evidenced by China Development Banks $50M loan to HRBN announced on November 22, 2010. Overall, we believe Chinese institutions will constitute the majority of the LBO syndication; HRBN is considered a quality investment target in the eyes of Chinese institutions because: (1) it has solid assets and an established domestic market share; and (2) it is valued at ~50% or less of similar assets trading on Hong Kong and/or Mainland China stock exchanges. Our positive outlook for HRBNs LBO is case-specific and should not be generalized among other Chinese company buy-out proposals. In our view, the ultimate purpose of Chinese company buy-outs is to re-list them on the Hong Kong or Mainland China stock exchanges, for which the investor base and preferences are different from U.S. exchanges. We believe companies with high tangible asset values, material market shares, and considerable histories of operation (among other aspects) are more welcomed by Chinese investors. Overall, our confidence for a successful conclusion of HRBNs LBO is based on our belief in: (1) the likeliness of available financing from Chinese institutions; (2) the feasibility for buying parties to buy back HRBN and re-list it on a Chinese exchange at a doubled (or even higher) valuation; and (3) HRBNs reliable historical financials. We reiterate our Buy rating and $24 price target, which is the announced LBO offer price.
Maxim Group LLC 405 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10174 www.maximgrp.com
SEE PAGES 4-6 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS 423
Chinese Industrial Companies China Automotive CAAS A-Power APWR FushiCopperweld FSIN Lihua International LIWA Shengdatech SDTH Wonder Auto WATG ChemSpec CPC China Gerui Adv. Materia CHOP SORL Auto Parts SORL Average
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $
8.9x 15.1x 6.0x 4.8x 7.2x 5.6x 8.0x 4.9x 5.3x 7.3x
8.1x 5.7x 6.5x 3.7x 6.0x 4.2x 7.3x 4.2x 4.8x 5.3x
6.7x 3.1x 5.6x 3.7x 5.1x 3.4x 6.3x 3.4x 4.3x 4.6x
HK Listed China Motor Companies Harbin Power Equipment 1133-HK $ Shanghai Electric Group 2727-HK $ Dongfang Electric Group 1072-HK $ Chongqing Machinery & E2722-HK $ Shanghai Prime Machine 2345-HK $ Average
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
China Mainland Listed China Motor Companies Xiangtan Electric 600416-S $ 4.42 $ Zhejiang Founder Motor 002196-S $ 3.63 $ BroadOcean 002249-S $ 4.15 $ Shanghai Electric Group 601727-S $ 1.17 $ Dongfang Electric Group 600875-S $ 4.08 $ Average
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
$ $ $ $ $
US/International Motor Companies Siemens SI $ 135.61 $ 117,808 ABB ABB $ 24.24 $ 55,510 Emerson Electric EMR $ 57.24 $ 43,111 Illinois Tool Works ITW $ 53.31 $ 26,787 Cummins CMI $ 105.89 $ 20,924 Magna International MGA $ 45.76 $ 5,160 Rockwell Automation ROK $ 91.55 $ 13,055 Lear Corporation LEA $ 47.15 $ 2,201 Regal Beloit RBC $ 72.87 $ 2,805 Smith AO AOS $ 42.09 $ 1,285 Franklin Electric FELE $ 44.19 $ 1,028 Average Source: Thomson One, Bloomberg and Maxim Group estimates.
$ 6.09 $ 1.25 $ 2.69 $ 3.08 $ 5.17 $ 4.34 $ 3.05 $ 4.42 n/a $ 2.87 $ 1.94
$ 9.60 $ 1.54 $ 3.29 $ 3.78 $ 7.22 $ 4.78 $ 4.51 $ 4.95 n/a $ 2.07 $ 2.27
$ 10.27 $ 1.85 $ 3.85 $ 4.42 $ 8.69 $ 5.39 $ 5.31 $ 5.69 n/a -$ 2.45 $ 2.67
22.3x 19.4x 21.3x 17.3x 20.5x 10.6x 30.0x 10.7x -14.7x 22.8x 18.9x
14.1x 15.8x 17.4x 14.1x 14.7x 9.6x 20.3x 9.5x -20.3x 19.5x 15.5x
13.2x 13.1x 14.9x 12.1x 12.2x 8.5x 17.3x 8.3x 17.2x 16.6x 13.3x
424
19.8 20.1 19.3 17.0 76.3 16.9 18.1 19.3 20.4 74.8 18.5 20.8 21.3 23.5 84.2 60% 74% 18% -14% 27% -15% -10% 0% 20% -2% 10% 15% 10% 15% 13% 56% 19% 19% 18% 16% 18% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 16% 15% 18.3 16.2 15.2 15.3 14.0 60.8 13.8 14.7 15.3 16.1 60.0 15.2 16.2 16.8 17.7 66.0 166% 78% 81% -18% 51% (15.0%) (3.0%) 0% 15% -1% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 28% 15% 14% 14% 13% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 22.5 23.6 23.5 23.7 93.2 22.5 25.9 27.0 30.8 106.2 28.1 31.1 31.9 35.5 126.5 107% 39% 14% 3% 31% 0% 10% 15% 30% 14% 25% 20% 18% 15% 19% 0% 21% 22% 21% 22% 22% 21% 23% 22% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 24% 23% 45.0 44.6 48.9 49.9 188.5 49.5 51.3 58.7 62.4 221.9 59.5 64.1 67.5 71.8 262.8 13% 6% 11% 12% 11% 10% 15% 20% 25% 18% 20% 25% 15% 15% 18% 0% 0% 20% 43% 42% 45% 47% 44% 47% 46% 48% 47% 47% 48% 48% 48% 48% 48% 4.9 $ 23.6 $ 40.4 $ 65.4 $ 120.8 $ 223.2 $ 105.5 $ 105.4 $ 109.4 $ 106.2 $ 426.5 $ 104.8 $ 112.2 $ 123.0 $ 131.6 $ 471.6 $ 123.6 $ 134.7 $ 140.4 $ 150.4 $ 549.0 387% 71% 62% 85% 85% 243% 175% 133% -1% 91% (0.7%) 6% 12% 24% 11% 18% 20% 14% 14% 16% (2.3) (12.1) (20.8) (33.0) (73.3) (146.6) (69.7) (70.1) (75.8) (75.1) (290.8) (74.2) (79.8) (87.2) (93.6) (334.8) (87.8) (95.6) (99.7) (106.9) (390.0) 2.6 52.9% (0.1) 1.9% (0.2) 3.8% (0.3) 2.3 47.1% 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0% 2.3 0.0% 2.3 47.6% 2.2 6.4 6.4 0.36 0.36 0.1 2.4 48.6% 8.28 $ $ 11.6 350% 48.9% (0.3) 1.4% (1.3) 5.3% (1.6) 10.0 42.1% 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.0% 10.0 0.0% 10.0 333% 42.3% 0.5 11.1 14.9 15.1 0.67 $ 0.66 $ 82% 0.4 10.3 43.7% 8.07 19.7 70% 48.6% (1.5) 3.7% (4.2) 10.3% (5.7) 14.0 34.6% 0.0 (2.5) 4.4 18.4 0.0% 18.4 0.0% 18.4 84% 45.6% 1.0 19.5 16.6 18.3 32.4 65% 49.6% (1.1) 1.6% (7.7) 11.7% (8.7) 23.7 36.3% (0.2) (6.6) (6.8) 16.9 0.0% 16.9 0.0% 16.9 (8%) 25.8% 7.2 13.2 17.1 18.6 47.5 46% 39.3% (1.2) 1.0% (11.9) 9.9% (13.1) 34.4 45% 28.5% 1.6 (6.1) (4.5) 29.9 (4.5) 15.1% 25.4 0.0% 25.4 50% 21.0% 9.5 40.0 20.2 21.3 76.6 61% 34.3% (2.1) 0.9% (18.7) 8.4% (20.8) 55.8 62% 25.0% 5.5 (12.3) (24.9) 30.9 (7.8) 25.2% 23.1 (3.5) 11.3% 19.6 (23%) 8.8% (0.1) 16.3 25.6 25.7 35.7 227% 33.9% (0.6) 0.6% (7.4) 7.0% (8.0) 27.7 246% 26.3% 1.1 (1.6) (0.8) 27.0 (4.1) 15.1% 22.9 (2.4) 8.7% 20.6 137% 19.5% 0.1 20.6 31.1 31.4 0.66 $ 0.66 $ 68% 3.3 0.3 31.3 6.84 35.3 175% 33.5% (0.4) 0.3% (6.9) 6.5% (7.2) 28.1 219% 26.6% 1.3 (1.0) 1.4 29.5 (3.8) 12.9% 25.7 (0.0) 0.0% 25.7 NM 24.4% 1.3 27.0 31.1 31.3 0.83 $ 0.82 $ NM 2.8 0.3 31.1 6.84 33.6 100% 30.7% (1.7) 1.5% (10.1) 9.2% (11.7) 21.9 68% 20.0% 0.7 (1.1) (0.7) 21.2 (3.3) 15.6% 17.9 (0.0) 0.1% 17.9 NM 16.3% 5.6 23.5 31.1 31.3 31.1 -14% 29.2% (0.8) 0.8% (14.6) 13.8% (15.4) 15.6 (39.7%) 14.7% 2.3 (0.8) 0.9 16.6 (3.8) 22.7% 12.8 (0.1) 0.4% 12.7 -31% 12.0% 6.7 19.4 31.1 31.3 135.7 77% 31.8% (3.4) 0.8% (39.0) 9.1% (42.4) 93.3 67% 21.9% 5.5 (4.6) 0.8 94.2 (14.9) 15.8% 79.2 (2.4) 2.6% 76.8 291% 18.0% 13.7 90.5 31.1 31.3 30.6 (14%) 29% (0.8) 0.8% (10.0) 9.5% (10.8) 19.8 (29%) 18.9% 1.0 (1.2) (0.2) 19.5 (3.3) 17.0% 16.2 0.0% 16.2 (21.2%) 15.5% 16.2 31.2 31.3 32.4 -8% 29% (0.9) 0.8% (10.3) 9.2% (11.2) 21.2 (25%) 18.9% 1.2 (1.0) 0.2 21.4 (3.6) 17.0% 17.7 0.0% 17.7 (31.0%) 15.8% 17.7 31.2 31.4 35.8 7% 29% (0.9) 0.8% (9.0) 7.3% (9.9) 25.9 19% 21.1% 0.7 (1.2) (0.5) 25.5 (4.3) 17.0% 21.1 0.0% 21.1 18% 17.2% 21.1 31.3 31.5 0.68 $ 0.67 $ 18% 37.9 22% 29% (1.1) 0.8% (9.5) 7.2% (10.5) 27.4 75% 20.8% 2.8 (1.2) 1.6 29.0 (4.9) 17.0% 24.0 0.0% 24.0 89% 18.3% 24.0 31.4 31.5 0.77 $ 0.76 $ 73% 136.8 1% 29.0% (3.7) 0.8% (38.7) 8.2% (42.4) 94.3 1% 20.0% 5.6 (4.6) 1.0 95.3 (16.2) 17.0% 79.1 0.0% 79.1 3% 16.8% 79.1 31.3 31.4 2.53 $ 2.52 $ 2% 13.5 1.2 109.0 23.1% 6.48 35.7 17% 29% (1.0) 0.8% (10.1) 8.2% (11.1) 24.6 25% 19.9% 1.0 (1.2) (0.2) 24.5 (4.2) 17.0% 20.3 0.0% 20.3 25% 16.4% 20.3 31.4 31.6 0.65 $ 0.64 $ 24% 39.0 20% 29% (1.1) 0.8% (10.1) 7.5% (11.2) 27.9 31% 20.7% 1.5 (1.2) 0.3 28.1 (4.8) 17.0% 23.3 0.0% 23.3 32% 17.3% 23.3 31.5 31.7 0.74 $ 0.74 $ 31% 40.7 13% 29% (1.1) 0.8% (10.2) 7.3% (11.4) 29.3 13% 20.9% 0.8 (1.2) (0.4) 28.9 (4.9) 17.0% 24.0 0.0% 24.0 13% 17.1% 24.0 31.5 31.7 0.76 $ 0.76 $ 13% 43.5 15% 29% (1.2) 0.8% (11.0) 7.3% (12.2) 31.4 14% 20.9% 1.3 (1.2) 0.1 31.5 (5.3) 17.0% 26.1 0.0% 26.1 9% 17.4% 26.1 31.6 31.8 0.83 $ 0.82 $ 8% 159.0 16% 29.0% (4.4) 0.8% (41.5) 7.6% (45.9) 113.1 20% 20.6% 4.7 (4.8) (0.2) 113.0 (19.2) 17.0% 93.8 0.0% 93.8 18% 17.1% 93.8 31.5 31.7 2.98 2.96 18% 14.7 1.3 129.1 23.5% 6.36
60.3 22% 27% 40.2 19% 18% 71.4 157% 23% 32% $ 44.5
1.11 $ 0.99 $ 1.01 $ 0.91 $ 53% (10%) 2.2 6.2 0.9 1.6 17.1 42.3% 7.80 31.4 48.1% 7.30
1.25 $ 0.77 $ 1.19 $ 0.77 $ 31% (35.7%) 7.7 17.0 1.8 1.2 43.8 36.3% 6.83 74.1 33.2% 6.84
0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.47 $ 0.52 $ 0.57 $ 0.57 $ 0.44 $ 2.46 $ 0.52 $ 0.56 $ NM -25% 221% (21.1%) (31.1%) 3.1 2.3 11.5 0.3 0.2 1.0 25.2 6.84 18.2 6.60 105.8 24.8% 6.76
6.57
6.54
6.51
6.48
6.45
6.42
6.39
6.36
425
Source: Investars.com
As of:
% of Coverage Universe
4/14/2011
% of Ratings that Firm received Banking fees 22.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Expected Performance* Buy Hold Sell Expected total return of 15% or more over next 12 months Expected total return of plus or minus 14% over next 12 months Expected total negative return of at least 15% over next 12 months
* Relative to Nasdaq Composite. An Under Review (UR) rating represents a stock that the Firm has temporarily placed under review due to a material change.
Maxim Group makes a market in Harbin Electric, Inc. Maxim Group expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Harbin Electric, Inc. in the next 3 months.
I, Echo He, attest that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security and issuer. Furthermore, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report. The research analyst(s) primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based upon various factors, including the firms total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. Valuation Methods: One or more of the following valuation methods are used by Maxim Group analysts in making a ratings or price projection: Analysis of companies P/E ratio, price/book ratio, earnings expectations or sales growth as they relate within an industry group or to the broader market, enterprise value/sales, Individual sector analysis, sum of the parts analysis and discounted cash flow. Price Target Risks: Investment risks associated with the achievement of the price target include, but are not limited to, the companys failure to achieve our earnings and revenue estimates, unforeseen macroeconomic
426
RISK RATINGS
Risk ratings take into account both fundamental criteria and price volatility. Speculative Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to early-stage companies with minimal to no revenues, lack of earnings, balance sheet concerns, and/or a short operating history. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be significantly above the industry. Price Volatility: Because of the inherent fundamental criteria of the companies falling within this risk category, the price volatility is expected to be significant with the possibility that the investment could eventually be worthless. Speculative stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. High Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies having below-average revenue and earnings visibility, negative cash flow, and low market cap or public float. Accordingly, fundamental risk is expected to be above the industry. Price volatility: The price volatility of companies falling within this category is expected to be above the industry. High-risk stocks may not be suitable for a significant class of individual investors. Medium Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to approximate the industry average. Low Fundamental Criteria: This is a risk rating assigned to companies that may have above-average revenue and earnings visibility, positive cash flow, and is fairly liquid. Accordingly, both price volatility and fundamental risk are expected to be below the industry.
427
DISCLAIMERS
Some companies that Maxim Group LLC follows are emerging growth companies whose securities typically involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Maxim Group LLC research reports may not be suitable for some investors. Investors must make their own determination as to the appropriateness of an investment in any securities referred to herein, based on their specific investment objectives, financial status and risk tolerance. This communication is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities mentioned herein. This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Maxim Group, LLC (Maxim). Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by Maxim to be reliable, but Maxim makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. Maxim accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Maxim. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Maxim may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and Maxim is under no obligation to ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgment at its original date of publication by Maxim and are subject to change without notice. The price, value of and income from any of the securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency volatility, effectively assume this risk. Securities recommended, offered or sold by Maxim: (1) are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Company; (2) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository institution; and (2) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of principal invested. Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment and, in such circumstances; you may be required to pay more money to support these losses.
428
D.I. REPORT
HRBN $19.62 Mkt. Cap.
A p r i l 1 2 , 2 0 11
Our Process and D.I. Rating Our process is simple. We consistently research the same 100 risk factors on each company, harvested from 5 years of SEC filings, across the following major categories: SEC activity; accounting/auditor issues; capital markets events; stability of the board and executives, and non-SEC investigative activity. Each D.I. Report identifies and summarizes those risk factors that we believe hold the potential to destabilize a company, distract its management, and/or interfere with underlying fundamentals. Our reports otherwise take no view on a public companys fundamental outlook or whether you should buy, sell, or hold its securities. D.I. Ratings, range from Low to High Risk. They are based on the number, nature, and timing of the risk factors we found among the 100 we research over the most recent 5 years. Detailed, well-organized, and in-depth analyst notes are available to subscribers for each D.I. Report we publish. High Risk It is our opinion that companies with a High Risk rating carry so much risk as to hold the potential to overwhelm underlying fundamentals. Required Disclosure - Please see http://www.disclosureinsight.com/disclosures.html for certain disclosures regarding ITG Inc. (a member of FINRA and SIPC) required under NASD Rule 2711(h).
D.I. RATING
High Risk
D.I. PROFILE Insider ownership; a non-binding proposal by HRBNs Chairman & CEO to take HRBN private; a non-top tier auditor; stock price volatility; ineffective internal controls; acquisition activity; related party transactions; and the chairman and CEO positions being held by one person support our opinion of a High Risk rating for HRBN. As of Jun-10, all directors and executive officers as a group owned 35.2% of HRBNs outstanding stock. Chairman & CEO Tianfu Yang owns 31%. In Oct-10, HRBN received a proposal from Yang (along with a private equity firm) to take HRBN private for $24 per share. In Nov-10, HRBN disclosed that the original proposal was modified as the private equity firm Yang was working with limited its potential capital contribution as disclosed in the original proposal. Also in Nov-10, the company entered into a term loan facility agreement, which limits HRBN's ability to, among other things, create liens on company assets, merge, consolidate, transfer substantially all of the companys assets, give guarantees or indemnities, and engage in any transaction that results in Yang and certain of his affiliates being the beneficial owner of less than 30% of HRBN's outstanding common stock. HRBNs auditor is Frazer Frost, LLP. There were 7 instances of stock price volatility >10% in the last year. In Mar-11, HRBN disclosed that as of 31-Dec-10, there were inherent weaknesses in internal control systems and internal controls were ineffective at HRBNs subsidiary, Xi'an Simo (a former state-owned enterprise acquired in Oct-09). HRBN completed 7 acquisitions for $204 million, of which $54 million was allocated to goodwill. The largest acquisition was Xian Simo in Oct-09 for $112 million, of which $42 million was allocated to goodwill. On 28-Dec-10, HRBN made an advance of $1.5 million to an entity (Tai Fu Industrial, Co., Ltd.) owned by Chairman & CEO Yang. HRBN stated that the "purpose of the advance was to accommodate an urgent cash need of a transaction for this related entity." As of 31-Dec-10, the advance had been repaid to the company. Chairman & CEO Tianfu Yang and VP Tianli Yang are brothers. Yang has served as Chairman & CEO since May-03. SEC Activity: A response we received from the SEC to a Freedom of Information Act request indicated no investigative activity as of 1-Mar-11. Comment letters are available from 5 SEC reviews. The first review (20-Jan-06 to 8-Feb-07) pertained to the registration statement filed 13-Jan-06 and its various amendments. This review lasted longer than 6 months, which is atypical in our experience. The second review (9-Nov-07 to 7-Jan-08) pertained to the 2006 10-K. Issues raised included disclosure on why SG&A expenses increased by 395% in 2006; revenue recognition policy for after sales service; and description of business. The third review (21-Jul-08 to 27-Oct-08) pertained to the registration statement filed 24-Jul-08, 2007 10-K, and 2007 10-K/A.
763-595-0900 direports@disclosureinsight.com www.disclosureinsight.com 2011 Disclosure Insight, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Additional legal and patent notices apply.
429
Disclosure Insight
D.I. Report
Issues raised related to managements assessment of internal controls The fourth review (20-Aug-09 to 30-Sep-09) pertained to the 2008 10-K. Issues raised related to the disclosure of contractual obligations and controls and procedures. The fifth review (28-Apr-10 to 14-May-10) pertained to the registration statement filed 30-Apr-10. Accounting/Auditor: In Dec-06, HRBN dismissed Kabani & Company, Inc. as its auditor and appointed Moore Stephens Wurth Frazer and Torbet, LLP. No disagreements were disclosed between HRBN and Kabani & Company. In Jan-10, Moore Stephens Wurth Frazer and Torbet, LLP and Frost, PLLC formed a new partnership firm named Frazer Frost, LLP. The new firm was approved as the new auditor for the company. HRBN disclosed that the company's disclosure controls and procedures were not effective as of 31-Dec-07, because HRBNs 2007 10-K failed to include the required managements report on internal control over financial reporting. Internal controls were declared effective as of 30-Sep-08. In Mar-11, HRBN disclosed that as of 31Dec-10, there were inherent weaknesses in internal control systems and internal controls were ineffective at the companys Xi'an Simo business. HRBN amended its 2007 10-K 3 times (Jul-08, Aug-08, and Oct-08) to restate a variety of items. Executive Suite: Stable. Tianfu Yang has served as CEO since May-03. Zedong Xu has served as CFO and Principal Accounting Officer since 2003. The Board: There have been 5 director departures. In Dec-06, Christopher Chung-Yi Hsu (then age 25) resigned from the board due to his resignation from Citadel Equity Fund, Ltd (CEF), a majority holder of HRBNs guaranteed senior secured floating rate notes. In Mar-07, Oliver Weisberg (then age 34) resigned. At the time, Weisberg was a managing Director and Head of the Special Situations - Asia Group at CEF. Suofei Xu (then age 43) was last reported as a director in the 2007 10-K filed in Mar-08. There was no disclosure on his departure. In Aug-09, Feng Bai (then age 39, a member of the audit and compensation committees) departed from the board for personal reasons. In Jul-09, Patrick McManus (then age 55, Chairman of the audit committee, a member of the nominating and compensation committees) passed away. Tianfu Yang has served as Chairman since May-03. Capital Markets: HRBN completed 7 acquisitions for $204 million, of which $54 million was allocated to goodwill. The largest acquisition was Xian Simo in Oct-09 for $112 million, of which $42 million was allocated to goodwill. On 27-Aug-09, HRBN received a letter from NASDAQ stating that as a result of the departure of director Feng Bai and the death of director Patrick McManus (both audit committee members) the company was not in compliance with NASDAQ's audit committee requirements. Dr. Ching Chuen Chan and Yunyue Ye were appointed as directors and members of the audit committee to replace Feng Bai and McManus, at which point HRBN regained compliance on 31-Aug-09. As of Jun-10, all directors and executive officers as a group owned 35.2% of HRBNs outstanding stock. Chairman & CEO Yang owns 31% of HRBN. There were 7 instances of stock price volatility >10% in the last year. In Oct-10, HRBN disclosed receiving a proposal letter from Chairman & CEO Yang and Baring Private Equity Asia Group Limited (Baring) to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Harbin not currently owned by Yang and his affiliates in a transaction to bring the company private for $24 per share in cash, subject to certain conditions. HRBN subsequently formed a special committee of independent directors (Special Committee). The Special Committee retained independent advisors, including an independent financial advisor. In Nov-10, Yang submitted a non-binding modification letter to the board modifying the proposal presented in Oct-10. The modification stated that Yang will no longer have an exclusive relationship with Baring, thereby allowing Yang to pursue alternative financing for the acquisition. Also, Baring will have the opportunity (but not the obligation) to provide up to 10% of the financing for the acquisition. Also in Nov-10, HRBN entered into a term loan facility agreement, which limits HRBN's ability to, among other things, create liens on HRBNs assets, merge, consolidate, transfer substantially all company assets, give guarantees or indemnities, and engage in any transaction that results in Yang and certain of his affiliates being the beneficial owner of less than 30% of HRBN's outstanding common stock. On 28-Dec-10, HRBN made an advance of $1.5 million to an entity (Tai Fu Industrial, Co., Ltd.) owned by Chairman & CEO Yang. HRBN stated that the "purpose of the advance was to accommodate an urgent cash need of a transaction for this related entity." As of 31-Dec-10, the advance had been repaid to the company. Chairman & CEO Tianfu Yang and VP Tianli Yang are brothers. Non-SEC Investigative Activity and Reviews: Nothing of note.
430
Disclosure Insight
D.I. Report
Are conference calls routinely held? Are there multiple classes of stock? Is this a controlled company?
Yes No No
Is there a small float? (<50% of shares outstanding.) Is revenue concentrated/otherwise not meaningful? Were noteworthy related party transactions found?
No No Yes
This D.I. Report represents the summation of 100 separate risk factors we analyzed over a 5-year period. The in-depth analyst notes used to produce this report are available to clients on our website.
431
Disclosure Insight
D.I. Report
Disclosures:
The following are the D.I. Ratings we may assign: High Risk: It is our opinion that companies with a High Risk rating carry so much risk as to hold the potential to overwhelm underlying fundamentals. Medium Risk - Negative Bias: Companies with a Medium Risk rating have at least one risk factor that concerns us. We assign a Negative Bias to the Medium Risk rating to those companies that in our opinion carry sufficient risk that the rating could deteriorate to High Risk. The Medium Risk - Negative Bias rating can also be assigned to those companies previously rated as High Risk that have shown some improvement, albeit not enough to yet warrant a lower risk rating as they could just as easily become High Risk again. Medium Risk - Positive Bias: Companies with a Medium Risk rating have at least one risk factor that concerns us. We assign a Positive Bias to the Medium Risk rating for those companies that in our opinion carry at least one risk factor that could potentially deteriorate into a higher risk challenge. The Medium Risk - Positive Bias rating can also be assigned to those companies previously rated as carrying higher risk, but have shown sufficient improvement. Low Risk: Companies with a Low Risk rating carry a low risk profile. In our opinion, the nature and timing of the risk factors we found do not concern us at the time of report publication. Intellectual Property This material is copyrighted 2000 to 2011 by Disclosure Insight, Inc. All rights reserved. The works of authorship contained in the accompanying material, including but not limited to all data, design, text, images, charts and other data compilations or collective works are owned by Disclosure Insight, Inc. or one of its affiliates and may not be copied, reproduced, transmitted, displayed, performed, distributed, rented, sublicensed, altered, or stored for subsequent use, in whole or in part in any manner, without the prior written consent of Disclosure Insight, Inc. Photocopying or electronic distribution of any of the accompanying material or contents without the prior written consent of Disclosure Insight, Inc. violates U.S. copyright law, and may be punishable by statutory damages of up to $150,000 per infringement, plus attorneys fees (17 USC 504 et. seq.). Without advance permission, illegal copying includes regular photocopying, faxing, excerpting, forwarding electronically, and sharing of online access. Disclosure Insight, D.I., D.I. Score, D.I. Rating, D.I. Profile, D.I. Database, D.I. Report, D.I. Watch List, D.I. Focus List, D.I. Mailbox, Better Disclosure for Better Decisions, 5 Years of Due Diligence in One Report, Assess the Risk. Achieve the Return., D.I. Favorites, and Just Because its Public Information Doesnt Mean its Public Knowledge are service/trademarks of Disclosure Insight, Inc. and are proprietary. Potential Conflicts of Interest Disclosure Insight, Inc. requires its employees and principals to adhere to the CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct regarding potential conflicts of interest. This includes prohibiting its employees and principals from trading in their own accounts in any manner which might be deemed in conflict with client subscribers. Further, and with few exceptions, Disclosure Insight, Inc. prohibits its employees and principals from trading of any kind in any individual public company securities, or derivatives thereof, on any company on which production of a new D.I. Report has commenced. Such prohibitions shall remain in place until either 5 days after the individual D.I. Report has been published or its production otherwise ceases. In addition, Disclosure Insight, Inc. prohibits its employees and principals from trading of any kind in any individual public company securities, or derivatives thereof, on any company on which we have received a response from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (or other regulatory authority) to one of our Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests which suggests the presence of an undisclosed SEC or other governmental investigation and/ or law enforcement activity. Such prohibitions on newly received FOIA data shall remain in place from when the material is received until either 5 days after it has been published or production on the data point otherwise ceases. On a severely limited basis, we will permit employees to engage in trading of the sort that would be deemed in conflict with this policy such as extreme financial hardship as defined by the CFA Institute Code of Ethics. Disclosure Insight, Inc. otherwise permits, and encourages, its employees to freely trade in any securities so long as such trading is not deemed as in conflict with this policy or client subscribers. We similarly place no holding period limits or restrictions
432
Disclosure Insight
D.I. Report
on such personal trading. This could, and often does, include trading in mutual funds, exchange traded funds (ETFs), and derivatives thereof which may include covered names as components of the overall funds and/or ETFs. Disclosure Insight, Inc. does not engage in investment banking activities or take any security positions, except those necessary for routine corporate treasury functions. ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES ARE AVAILABLE AT www.disclosureinsight.com
433
Conclusions Page 9
Harbin Electric, Inc. is a high quality company with a neutral outlook. Harbin Electric, Inc. has strong business growth and is run by efficient management. The trend in Harbin Electric, Inc. fair value exchange rate against its closest rated-competitor, American Superconductor Corporation, has been appreciating over the past 2 weeks. When compared to its closest peer, Hydrogenics Corporation (USA), Harbin Electric, Inc. shows similar undervaluation and is more likely to outperform the market. StockMarks Ratings Total Quality Classical Business Management Price Volability Outperformance
SMT
SMC
SMB
SMM
SMP
SMV
SMO
Summary StockMarks Ratings for Harbin Electric, Inc. were calculated in relation to the entire population of 4206 United States-listed companies rated today, using a scale from 0 (worst) to 100 (best). For an explanation of each rating, see page 10.
1
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
434
HRBN
Industrials
NASDAQ
2011-03-28
Harbin Electric, Inc.'s registered activity is in the Electrical Components & Equipment industry. The table above gives a profile of the company.
The chart below shows the movements of the Total Quality StockMark (SMT)
and share price expressed as indexes since we began rating the company.
It is a mid-cap stock currently trading at a multiple of 7.66 times earnings. While Harbin Electric, Inc.'s share price has risen modestly in the last quarter, the company's long-term investment rating (chart above) increased over the same period.
2
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
435
An important question to ask is whether Harbin Electric, Inc.s underlying long-term fundamentals justify the modest rise in the company's share price. We can examine this issue using the StockMarks framework. First, in the chart on the right, we compare the companys trend for each rating, followed by a comparison of the companys overall long-term investment attractiveness rating (Total StockMark or SMT) in relation to its sector (chart below).
Ratings showing a positive trend: Total; Business; Classic; Volatility; Outperformance; Ratings showing a negative trend: Management; Price;
Recent rating trends:
Harbin Electric, Inc. currently has an overall quality rating significantly above the average of its sector.
Harbin Electric, Inc. currently has an overall long-term investment attractiveness rating (Total StockMark or SMT) of 93, placing Harbin Electric, Inc. above the SMT average of 50.87 for United Stateslisted companies. This rating ranks Harbin Electric, Inc. first when compared to ten of its closest peers, selected because of similarity of business, financial and market-positioning factors such as size (see page 5).
How do the Harbin Electric, Inc.'s ratings rank among selected benchmark groups?
StockMarks ratings were calculated in relation to the total of 4206 United States-listed companies rated today. Although the scale from 0 to 100 is in itself meaningful, for benchmarking purposes we need to define a few relevant reference groups, namely competitors, correlated stocks and value investing peers.
3
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
436
Company Name
Similarity Industry SMT SMB SMM % Share % 0.20 83.3 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 66.7 66.7 0.19 0.01 4.11 0.36 1.15 0.18 0.86 0.95 0.03 0.16 93 90 21 54 69 23 79 68 42 87 76 90 89 12 36 66 14 77 75 24 100 67 75 62 43 66 56 51 62 51 61 18 72
SMP 57 60 57 58 58 58 58 53 58 68 58
Harbin Electric, Inc.s best rank among competitors is first for the Management Efficiency (SMM) rating.
The closest competitor, American Superconductor Corporation has a similarity index of 83.3% and a market share of 0.2% compared to Harbin Electric, Inc.s market share of 0.2% (See table on the right). Harbin Electric, Inc.s competitors were selected based on the registration industry, total revenue and market capitalization among rated companies. These do not include non-listed companies and foreign competitors, which may be more significant. Similarly, we calculated the industry market share only in relation to rated companies. Therefore, a 100% market share does not mean that the company has no competitors in the industry. China Ritar Power Corp. is the closest stock for pair trading with a similarity index of 75%, defined on the basis of market correlation, sector and trading volumes. To assess the recent convergence/divergence trend, readers should use a chart to compare the prices of the chosen pair. SADIF subscribers may draw such chart by choosing option 3 in the Due Diligence Section. In general, pair trading requires degrees of similarity above 70%.
HYGS NJ
FELE Franklin Electric Co. AOS A. O. Smith Corporation AZZ BEZ AZZ Incorporated Baldor Electric Company
JELC Johnson Electric Holdings Y (... HEV Ener1, Inc. AEIS Advanced Energy Industries,...
The success of pair trading strategies depends on the investors ability to forecast the convergence path. However, convergence itself may only happen if the two companies are not diverging in a fundamental way. Investors can evaluate this possibility by comparing the StockMarks quality ratings shown in the second table below.
In relation to its highest correlated stocks (for pair trading) Harbin Electric, Inc.s best rank is first for the Total Quality (SMT) rating. However, to assess pair trading convergence it is also important to consider Harbin Electric, Inc.s worst ranking, which is ninth for the Price Attractiveness (SMP) rating.
Company Name
Similarity SMT SMB SMM SMP % 93 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 88 25 49 79 38 75 47 25 92 54 90 87 20 36 79 25 56 39 21 85 50 75 62 38 50 57 48 75 44 39 79 47 57 57 61 63 58 61 60 63 59 58 60
HRBN Harbin Electric, Inc. CRTP China Ritar Power Corp. TEX Terex Corporation
GTLS Chart Industries, Inc. GNK TXT GTI MTW Genco Shipping & Trading Li... Textron Inc. GrafTech International Ltd. Manitowoc Company, Inc.
PLNR Planar Systems, Inc. PWER Power-One, Inc. MIC Macquarie Infrastructure Co...
4
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
437
At this stage, some investors may find it useful to read the Due Diligence Reports for these peers or competitors.
The overall conclusion is that Harbin Electric, Inc. is a high quality company with a neutral outlook. Nevertheless, we need to look further into its determinants by examining each quality rating separately. We selected also a group of investment peers in terms of longterm operational and financial similarities. Because of the stringency of the criteria used, not all companies have a degree of similarity greater than the minimum of 50% recommended for reliable benchmarking. Among this group shown in the table above on the right, Harbin Electric, Inc.s best rank is first for the Management Efficiency (SMM) rating. The radar chart above provides a synopsis of all of Harbin Electric, Inc.s ratings in comparison to its top two peers.
5
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
438
in place as it takes a few quarters before its impact is shown in the company financials. Also, sometimes a small temporary decline or rise may not be attributed to a change in efficiency but are instead the result of large shifts in investment/disinvestment.
6
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
439
The fair value exchange rate of Harbin Electric, Inc.s stock in relation to its closest competitor American Superconductor Corporation is appreciating.
The valuation of stock-for-stock offers in M&A transactions is quite complex when shareholders of the acquirer and the target company hold significantly different views on the intrinsic value of their companies. The nominal stock exchange rate as given by current market prices (shown in the chart below) may be misleading if markets, as they often do, over-estimate or underestimate the premium/discount relative to intrinsic value.
A chart of the SMP and the ratings of some of the company's key price valuation multiples is shown above. Investors need to consider the most recent absolute value of the SMP and its determinants together with the SMP trend. First, to verify if the stock is caught at a stationary level, indicating that it may remain undervalued or overvalued for long periods. Second, investors should assess if it is diverging or converging in relation to a fair valuation (SMP between 4555).
7
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
440
Unfortunately, the estimation of intrinsic values is a very challenging task. However, we may minimize the problem and bypass the need to estimate intrinsic values by adjusting the nominal stock exchange rates with our Price Attractiveness StockMark (SMP), which estimates the degree of over or undervaluation at any level of the market premium or discount. By adjusting the nominal rates by the relative SMPs we obtain the fair value exchange rate. Current nominal rates vs. fair value stock exchange rates are shown in the previous page:
The trend in the fair value exchange rates shown above is relevant not only to adjust valuations but also to assess the price outlook for Harbin Electric, Inc..
8
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
441
The market sentiment in relation to Harbin Electric, Inc. is positive and is deteriorating
No due diligence is complete without considering the market sentiment in relation to Harbin Electric, Inc., because this is paramount in determining the stock s performance in the short to medium-term.
For this, we use the Outperformance StockMark (SMO), which measures the likelihood of the company to outperform the market in the near term. This rating combines the company's past quarter price dynamics with its market risk and total quality, in a scale from 0 (worst) to 100 (best). Harbin Electric, Inc.s SMO is currently at 83. Looking at its trend in the chart on the left, we can see that it is deteriorating. When compared to its closest peer, Hydrogenics Corporation (USA), Harbin Electric, Inc. shows similar undervaluation and is more likely to outperform the market. While, if compared to its first competitor, American Superconductor Corporation, Harbin Electric, Inc. shows similar undervaluation and is equally likely to outperform the market.
Conclusions The company's share price in the past year has been hit hard, but we believe that its underlying fundamentals will determine the stocks long-term performance. A StockMarks analysis of Harbin Electric, Inc. reveals a company with a high quality and strong long-term business growth. The likelihood of Harbin Electric, Inc. stock to outperform the market as measured by the Outperformance StockMark (SMO) is well above average with a rating of 83 / 100. The risk associated with holding the shares as measured by the Volatility StockMark (SMV) is below average with a rating of 63 /100. Overall, we believe Harbin Electric, Inc. to be an average long-term investment.
9
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. Please read disclaimer in page 10.
442
2009 Marques Mendes & Associados Lda (MM&A). All Rights Reserved. This report is for information purposes only and is not a solicitation or advice to buy or sell any security. The data contained within this report is not warranted to be accurate or complete. This report is only intended as a summary of SADIF's stock ratings and not a recommendation for stock purchase or sale. Redistribution of this report without explicit permission is strictly prohibited. All logos are the copyright property of their respective companies and are used here only to aid the reader in identification of the subject of the article. The author of this article does not hold a position in any of the companies featured within this report.
Marques Mendes & Associados Lda. Rua Domingos F. Pinto Basto, 17 3830-176 Ilhavo, Portugal, Ph: (+ 351)234 322 037 Email: research@sadifanalytics.com
10
443
Mark Tobin , (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA , (86) (21) 6141-5757 x 7825 ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
| HRBN - $17.88 - NASDAQ | Buy HRBN: Updating Model; Focus Remains on Privatization
We are updating our model to reflect 4Q10 results. Our outlook for 2011 and 2012 remains largely unchanged. We are lowering our price target to $24 (from $26), reflecting the proposed buy-out price. We believe the pending privatization continues to be the primary value driver for shares of HRBN. We maintain our BUY rating. 4Q10 non-GAAP EPS roughly in-line. We view Q4 results as roughly in-line with our estimates. Revenue equaled $106.2M vs. est. $110.2M. Non-GAAP EPS equaled $0.62 vs. est. $0.63. Non-GAAP EPS excludes $0.17 in bad debt expense (Xi'an Simo) and $0.04 in buy-out-related expenses. Order milestones. We are encouraged by HRBN's orders for linear motors for the Beijing Airport express metro train and for 35 oil pumps from Jiangsu and Jilin oil fields (first sales outside of Daxing Oil Field). While the magnitude of these orders is not large, we are encouraged by the long-term potential associated with the penetration into new customers and applications. Revising estimates. We are tweaking our estimates to reflect our updated outlook. We believe the company is capable of achieving 20% revenue growth and 25% earnings growth through 2012. We model stable gross margins in the low-30%-range based on expectations for continued material and labor cost increases which offset HRBN's higher shipment volume. Intraday price: $17.47 at 11:20am ET.
Pro-forma EPS for all periods Revenue ($ millions) Yr Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q YEAR 2010 105.5A 105.4A 109.4A 106.2A 426.5A 2011E Curr 112.9E 122.5E 136.8E 140.1E 512.3E Prev 113.3E 123.0E 139.6E 144.3E 520.2E 2012E Curr 625.5E Prev 636.0E
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q1
2010
2011
Created by BlueMatrix
Refer to important disclosure information and rating System Definition on pages 4 - 5 of this report. Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 24 Corporate Plaza | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
444
VALUATION
Our $24 PT is based on the offer price of the proposed buy-out. Factors that may impede HRBN shares from reaching price target include s There are still numerous steps in the privatization process, some of which could lead to delays in completing the transaction. s Continued share weakness could lead to a lower takeout offer. s A slow-down in China's economic growth and continued inflation could impact sales and compress margins.
RISKS
Change in macro policies in China. Two of HRBN's major catalysts, oil pump for oilfield and linear motors for urban metro lines, can be largely affected by central and local government policies. The development of urban railways can experience delays that out of control of HRBN, such as delay in construction. Volatile raw materials costs HRBN is subject to market fluctuations and volatility of two major raw materials, copper and steel respectively.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Harbin Electric, Inc. develops, engineers, manufactures and sells an array of industrial electric motors, customized linear motors, controller automation systems, automobile specialty micro-motors, and other special motors. The Company operates, through its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Harbin Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd (HTFE). The Company offers three key product lines: industrial electric motors, linear motors and their integrated application systems, and automobile specialty micro-motors.
MENTIONED COMPANIES
Page 2 of 5
445
FY07
Revenue Linear Motors Automobile specialty micro-motors Controllers and other special motors Rotary industrial motors (Weihai Hengda) Simo Motor Total Revenue yoy growth % Cost of Sales Gross Profit gross margin% Operating Expenses Selling, General and Administrative Expenses as % of revenue Research and Development Expenses as % of revenue Income From Operations operating margin yoy growth % Other Income(Expenses) Interest Income/expense-net Realized Gain/loss on Sale of Marketable Securities Non-operating Income/expense, Net Other Income/expense-net Loss on cross currency hedge settlement Gain on debt extinguishment Change in Fair Value of Warrants Loss from disposal of subdivision Earnings before Taxes Provision for Income Tax effective tax rate Minority Interest Net Income (Loss) net margin % yoy growth % Non GAAP Net Income* net margin % yoy growth % Diluted EPS yoy growth % Non GAAP EPS yoy growth % Diluted weighted average shares outstanding EBITDA 36,626 10,464 18,313 0 0 65,403 62% (32,968) 32,435 49.6%
FY08
46,950 34,628 11,664 27,578 0 120,820 85% (73,343) 47,477 39.3%
Q1'09A
12,382 6,114 1,383 10,846 0 30,725 36.8% (19,801) 10,924 35.6%
Q2'09A
11,547 8,555 1,343 16,918 0 38,363 60.1% (25,500) 12,863 33.5%
Q3'09A
16,426 8,448 1,408 20,650 0 46,932 18.3% (30,171) 16,761 35.7%
Q4'09A
20,371 18,441 643 23,694 44,065 107,214 208.6% (71,150) 36,064 33.6%
FY09
60,726 41,558 4,777 72,109 44,065 223,234 84.8% (146,622) 76,612 34.3%
Q1'10A
19,831 16,245 1,899 22,468 45,042 105,485 243.3% (69,743) 35,742 33.9%
Q2'10A
20,138 15,183 2,003 23,512 44,599 105,436 174.8% (70,104) 35,332 33.5%
Q3'10A
19,356 15,310 2,296 23,511 48,881 109,355 133.0% (75,780) 33,575 30.7%
Q4'10A
17,009 14,030 1,468 23,757 49,942 106,206 -0.9% (75,142) 31,064 29.2%
FY10A
76,334 60,767 7,666 93,249 188,465 426,481 91.0% (290,768) 135,713 31.8%
Q1'11E
18,456 16,380 1,994 26,513 49,546 112,889 7.0% (78,148) 34,741 30.8%
Q2'11E
20,518 17,325 2,043 27,744 54,857 122,488 16.2% (84,417) 38,071 31.1%
Q3'11E
25,868 22,050 2,985 27,743 58,169 136,815 25.1% (92,636) 44,179 32.3%
Q4'11E
25,176 23,625 2,348 28,509 60,430 140,088 31.9% (95,308) 44,780 32.0%
FY11E
90,018 79,380 9,371 110,509 223,002 512,280 20.1% (350,509) 161,771 31.6%
FY12E
118,015 98,595 9,795 132,611 266,488 625,504 22.1% (425,845) 199,658 31.9%
(6,620) 0 (189) 0 0 0 0 0 16,903 0 0.0% 16,903 25.8% -8% 16,903 25.8% 40% $0.91 -10% $0.91 37% 18,635 29,863
(6,066) 0 218 1,358 0 0 0 0 29,903 (4,524) 15.1% 25,379 21.0% 50% 25,379 21.0% 50% $1.19 31% $1.19 31% 21,324 42,066
(1,441) 0 0 539 0 0 2,573 0 9,697 (1,043) 10.8% 8,654 28.2% 62% 6,081 19.8% 14% $0.39 46% $0.27 2% 22,159 10,245
(843) 0 0 2,101 0 0 (14,015) 0 (3,941) (1,479) -37.5% (5,419) -14.1% -187% 7,423 19.3% 19% -$0.24 -178% $0.33 7% 22,341 10,688
(8,478) 0 0 1,063 (9,000) 4,155 (737) 0 46 (1,954) 4209.2% (1,908) -4.1% -125% 10,953 23.3% 41% -$0.07 -121% $0.40 20% 27,077 23,101
(1,553) 0 0 1,759 0 0 (1,037) 0 25,131 (3,320) 13.2% (3,491) 18,320 17.1% 203% 19,356 18.1% 220% $0.59 114% $0.62 127% 31,240 28,806
(12,316) 0 0 5,462 (9,000) 4,155 (13,215) 0 30,934 (7,796) 25.2% (3,491) 19,647 8.8% -23% 43,813 19.6% 73% $0.77 -36% $1.71 43% 25,672 72,840
(1,647) 0 0 1,119 0 0 (234) 0 26,969 (4,063) 15.1% (2,352) 20,554 19.5% 137% 20,788 19.7% 242% $0.66 68% $0.66 142% 31,354 31,037
(978) 0 0 1,327 0 0 1,657 (623) 29,466 (3,791) 12.9% (1) 25,675 24.4% -574% 24,641 23.4% 232% $0.82 N/A $0.79 137% 31,343 30,866
(1,133) 0 0 740 0 0 (302) 0 21,158 (3,296) 15.6% 11 17,873 16.3% -1037% 20,208 18.5% 85% $0.57 N/A $0.65 60% 31,282 24,943
(836) 0 0 2,304 0 0 (547) 0 16,569 (3,765) 22.7% (91) 12,714 12.0% -31% 19,603 18.5% 1% $0.41 -31% $0.62 1% 31,376 17,938
(4,593) 0 0 5,490 0 0 574 (623) 94,163 (14,915) 15.8% (2,432) 76,815 18.0% 291% 85,240 20.0% 95% $2.46 221% $2.72 60% 31,282 104,784
(1,500) 0 0 1,000 0 0 (200) 0 24,107 (3,857) 16.0% 0 20,250 17.9% -1% 20,450 18.1% -2% $0.64 -2% $0.65 -2% 31,470 31,281
(1,500) 0 0 1,000 0 0 (200) 0 26,959 (4,313) 16.0% 0 22,646 18.5% -12% 22,846 18.7% -7% $0.72 -12% $0.72 -8% 31,564 34,133
(1,500) 0 0 1,000 0 0 (200) 0 32,397 (5,184) 16.0% 0 27,214 19.9% 52% 27,414 20.0% 36% $0.86 50% $0.87 34% 31,659 39,571
(1,500) 0 0 1,000 0 0 (200) 0 32,593 (5,215) 16.0% 0 27,378 19.5% 115% 27,578 19.7% 41% $0.86 113% $0.87 39% 31,754 39,769
(6,000) 0 0 4,000 0 0 (800) 0 116,056 (18,569) 16.0% 0 97,487 19.0% 27% 98,287 19.2% 15% $3.08 26% $3.11 14% 31,612 144,754
(8,000) 0 0 4,000 0 0 (800) 0 144,112 (24,499) 17.0% 0 119,613 19.1% 23% 120,413 19.3% 23% $3.74 21% $3.76 21% 31,993 178,912
*Pro-forma net income excludes stock compensation, derivative valuation, and one-time items Source: Company reports, Roth Capital Partners estimates Mark Tobin (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com
Page 3 of 5
446
Disclosures:
ROTH makes a market in shares of Harbin Electric, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral.
Rating and Price Target History for: Harbin Electric, Inc. (HRBN) as of 03-23-2011
12/23/08 I:B:$15 03/13/09 B:$9 05/08/09 B:$13 07/01/09 B:$20 08/11/09 B:$23 11/02/09 B:$29 05/10/10 B:$33 10/13/10 H:$26 10/26/10 B:$26 25
20
15
10
Q1 2008
Q2
Q3 2009
Q1
Q2
Q3 2010
Q1
Q2
Q3 2011
0 Q1
Created by BlueMatrix
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 03/24/11 Rating Buy [B] Neutral [N] Sell [S] Not Rated [NR] Count 197 58 4 0 Percent 72.2 21.2 1.5 0.0 Count 41 7 0 0 Percent 20.8 12.1 0 0
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12-month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation that the price will decline by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Not Rated: A security which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates that we have no opinion or expectations as to the price of the security over the next 12 months. Not Covered (NC): ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about the security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months.The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as
Page 4 of 5
447
Page 5 of 5
448
Equity Research
Outperform
Company Profile:Aggressive Growth Symbol: HRBN (NASDAQ) Price: $16.70 (52-Wk.: $15-$25) Market Value (mil.): $521 Fiscal Year End: December Long-Term EPS Growth Rate: 25% Dividend/Yield: None 2010A Estimates EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY CY Valuation FY P/E CY P/E $0.66 $0.77 $0.65 $0.62 $2.72 2011E $0.58 $0.66 $0.75 $0.73 $2.72 $2.72 2012E NA NA NA NA NA NA
6.1x
6.1x 6.1x
NA NA
Trading Data (Thomson Financial) Shares Outstanding (mil.) 31 Float (mil.) 20 Average Daily Volume 276,155 Financial Data (Thomson Financial) Long-Term Debt/Total Capital (MRQ) 26.1 Book Value Per Share (MRQ) 5.0 Enterprise Value (mil.) 500.0 EBITDA (TTM) 112.0 Enterprise Value/EBITDA (TTM) 4.5x Return on Equity (TTM) 20.8 Two-Year Price Performance Chart
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0 12/31/09 12/31/10
China-based Harbin Electric is a leading manufacturer of electric motors in China, including linear motors, micro-motors, and rotary motors. Manufacturing operations are located in the cities of Harbin, Shanghai, Weihai, and Xian. The company generates about 90% of sales in China and 10% in international endmarkets.
Please consult the last page of this report for all disclosures.
449
4Q10 $16,992,893 -16.6% -12.1% 13,806,725 -19.5% -9.8% 1,062,056 -45.0% -53.6% 23,365,227 -1.4% -0.6% 49,916,622 NM 2.0% 106,205,579 -0.9% -2.9%
19.0% 16.0% 1.8% 22.1% 41.1% 100% 4Q09 61.6% 37.9% 49.3% 9.6% 31.6% 33.6%
17.7% 14.0% 2.1% 21.5% 44.7% 100% 3Q10 63.1% 31.5% 39.2% 10.9% 26.8% 30.7%
16.0% 13.0% 1.0% 22.0% 47.0% 99% 4Q10 56.7% 29.9% 34.7% 11.1% 28.2% 29.2%
(1) Segment revenue figures are based on percentage of total revenue provided by management and are not precise. Source: Company reports
450
79,184,157 93,282,848 (57,247,413) (57,297,019) 21,936,744 35,985,829 Sep-10 Dec-10 85,899,332 5.0x 74 62,843,556 4.6x 79 26,881,540 10.8x 34
Accounts Receivable 89,489,395 1 LTM reveivables turnover 4.8x DSO, LTM 76 Inventory 1 LTM inventory turnover DOH, LTM Accounts Payable 1 LTM payables turnover DPO, LTM 73,898,882 3.9x 94 53,849,313 5.3x 69
1) For comparison purposes, period ending balance sheet accounts (instead of average balance sheet accounts) were used to calculate turns. This is because third quarter 2009 did not include the Simo subsidiary, which greatly affected balance sheet accounts. Source: William Blair and Company, L.L.C. estimates
451
William Blair & Company, L.L.C. Fourth Quarter 2010 Performance Comparison The following table compares the companys actual fourth quarter 2010 performance on a consolidated basis with 1) fourth quarter 2009 performance and 2) our estimates for fourth quarter 2010 performance.
Fiscal Year End December 31 Income Statement Net Sales Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit SG&A Research & Development Operating Profit Interest Expense Interest Income & Other Nonrecurring Income (Expense) Income Before Taxes Income Tax Provision Income After Taxes Noncontrolling Interest Income Available to Common Average Diluted Shares Outstanding Reported Diluted EPS - A/T Nonrecurring Income Adjusted Diluted EPS Effective Tax Rate % of Sales Net Sales Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit SG&A Research & Development Operating Profit Adjusted Net Income Available to Common Growth Rates Net Sales Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit SG&A Operating Profit Adjusted Net Income Available to Common Adjusted Diluted EPS
F4Q10
F4Q09
% Ch. -0.9% 5.6% -13.9% -13.1% -2.5% -14.5% -46.2% 15.6% n.m. n.m. 13.4% n.m. n.m. 0.5% n.m. n.m. -1.0%
WB Est. 4Q10 106,326,924 74,505,236 31,821,688 8,506,154 1,594,904 21,720,630 989,376 279,425 21,010,679 3,277,666 17,733,013 17,733,013 31,282,802 0.57 0.57 15.6% 100.0% 70.1% 29.9% 8.0% 1.5% 20.4% 16.7%
% Variance -0.1% 0.9% -2.4% -5.2% -49.7% 2.2% -15.5% 627.6% -21.1% 14.9% -27.8% -28.3% -0.4% -28.0% 9.0%
106,205,579 107,213,986 75,141,698 71,150,100 31,063,881 36,063,886 8,065,058 9,278,386 802,943 823,255 22,195,880 25,962,245 835,647 1,553,417 2,033,098 1,759,234 (6,824,147) (1,036,610) 16,569,184 25,131,452 3,764,733 3,320,263 12,804,451 21,811,189 90,529 3,491,414 12,713,922 18,319,775 31,149,289 0.41 0.21 0.62 22.7% 100.0% 70.8% 29.2% 7.6% 0.8% 20.9% 18.4% -0.9% 5.6% -13.9% -13.1% -14.5% 0.9% -1.0% 31,000,000 0.59 0.03 0.62 13.2% 100.0% 66.4% 33.6% 8.7% 0.8% 24.2% 18.1% 208.6% 206.0% 213.9% 149.4% 270.2% 220.4% 134.6%
2011 Forecast. We forecast 8% revenue growth, to $462 million, with stronger growth in the second half of the year when new capacity is expected to come on line in the rotary motor business. We expect about 100 basis points of operating margin contraction, to 22.9%, primarily due to higher raw material costs and shifts in product mix. Management expects the tax rate to be up slightly in 2011; we are modeling 17.5%. Largely due to capacity constraints, we forecast EPS to be flat in 2011, at $2.72. Risks. Although Harbin has many strengths, we continue to believe an investment in the companys shares comes with above-average risk. Specifically, uncertainty around the timing and profitability of the opportunities discussed above gives rise to risk to our forecast. Other risks include limited liquidity and float, ownership concentration (CEO owns 31% of common stock), the companys small size, customer concentration, vendor concentration, dependence on the Chinese government, political/country/currency risks, and the general challenges associated with managing rapid growth.
452
(Figures in U.S. dollars, except per-share items) Fiscal year end: December 31 Income Statement Net Sales Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit SG&A Research & Development Operating Profit 1 Interest Expense Interest Income & Other Nonrecurring Income (Expense) Income Before Taxes Income Tax Provision Income After Taxes Noncontrolling Interest Income Available to Common Diluted EPS Average Diluted Shares Outstanding Reported Diluted EPS - A/T Nonrecurring Income Adjusted Diluted EPS Adjusted EBITDA Adjusted Net Income Available to Common Effective Tax Rate % of Sales Net Sales Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit SG&A Research & Development Operating Profit Adjusted EBITDA Growth Rates Net Sales Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit SG&A Research & Development Operating Profit Adjusted EBITDA Reported Diluted EPS Adjusted Diluted EPS 100.0% 50.4% 49.6% 11.7% 1.6% 36.3% 37.9% FY07 FY08 FY09 F1Q10 F2Q10 F3Q10 F4Q10 FY10 F1Q11E F2Q11E F3Q11E F4Q11E FY11E
$65,402,864 $120,820,302 $223,234,394 $105,485,157 $105,435,970 $109,354,544 $106,205,579 $426,481,250 $107,132,697 $113,178,283 $119,756,690 $122,343,361 $462,411,030 32,967,887 73,343,521 146,622,220 69,743,087 70,103,783 75,779,744 75,141,698 290,768,312 75,372,910 78,219,133 80,644,056 83,824,988 318,061,086 32,434,977 47,476,781 76,612,174 35,742,070 35,332,187 33,574,800 31,063,881 135,712,938 31,759,787 34,959,150 39,112,634 38,518,373 144,349,944 7,659,611 11,913,435 18,671,507 7,416,758 6,886,054 8,025,109 8,065,058 30,392,979 8,034,952 8,488,371 8,981,752 9,175,752 34,680,827 1,064,074 1,170,169 2,093,366 594,195 362,783 1,663,465 802,943 3,423,386 857,062 905,426 958,054 978,747 3,699,288 23,711,292 34,393,177 55,847,301 27,731,117 28,083,350 23,886,226 22,195,880 101,896,573 22,867,773 25,565,353 29,172,829 28,363,874 105,969,829 6,619,954 6,065,814 5,036,158 1,646,923 977,858 1,132,671 835,647 4,593,099 1,375,264 1,171,054 1,171,054 1,171,054 4,888,425 (188,654) 1,575,224 4,289,588 1,119,286 1,326,675 739,840 2,033,098 5,218,899 331,104 368,816 415,215 450,121 1,565,256 (24,166,452) (234,078) 1,034,299 (2,335,539) (6,824,147) (8,359,465) 16,902,684 29,902,587 30,934,279 26,969,402 29,466,466 21,157,856 16,569,184 94,162,908 21,823,613 24,763,115 28,416,991 27,642,941 102,646,660 4,523,888 7,796,084 4,063,361 3,790,892 3,296,165 3,764,733 14,915,151 3,819,132 4,333,545 4,972,973 4,837,515 17,963,166 16,902,684 25,378,699 23,138,195 22,906,041 25,675,574 17,861,691 12,804,451 79,247,757 18,004,481 20,429,570 23,444,018 22,805,426 84,683,495 3,491,414 2,352,353 770 (11,241) 90,529 2,432,411 16,902,684 25,378,699 19,646,781 20,553,688 25,674,804 17,872,932 12,713,922 76,815,346 18,004,481 20,429,570 23,444,018 22,805,426 84,683,495 18,634,739 0.91 0.91 24,788,384 16,902,684 21,323,660 1.19 1.19 37,034,575 25,378,699 15.1% 100.0% 60.7% 39.3% 9.9% 1.0% 28.5% 30.7% 25,672,420 0.77 0.94 1.71 60,577,207 43,813,233 25.2% 100.0% 65.7% 34.3% 8.4% 0.9% 25.0% 27.1% 31,353,863 0.66 0.01 0.66 29,985,073 20,785,425 15.1% 100.0% 66.1% 33.9% 7.0% 0.6% 26.3% 28.4% 31,343,306 0.82 (0.03) 0.79 30,412,339 24,640,505 12.9% 100.0% 66.5% 33.5% 6.5% 0.3% 26.6% 28.8% 31,281,802 0.57 0.07 0.65 26,682,846 20,208,471 15.6% 100.0% 69.3% 30.7% 7.3% 1.5% 21.8% 24.4% 31,149,289 0.41 0.21 0.62 26,284,882 19,538,069 22.7% 100.0% 70.8% 29.2% 7.6% 0.8% 20.9% 24.7% 31,282,065 2.46 0.27 2.72 113,365,140 85,172,470 15.8% 100.0% 68.2% 31.8% 7.1% 0.8% 23.9% 26.6% 31,150,289 0.58 0.58 25,120,221 18,004,481 17.5% 100.0% 70.4% 29.6% 7.5% 0.8% 21.3% 23.4% 31,151,289 0.66 0.66 27,922,084 20,429,570 17.5% 100.0% 69.1% 30.9% 7.5% 0.8% 22.6% 24.7% 31,152,289 0.75 0.75 31,643,498 23,444,018 17.5% 100.0% 67.3% 32.7% 7.5% 0.8% 24.4% 26.4% 31,153,289 0.73 0.73 30,876,693 22,805,426 17.5% 100.0% 68.5% 31.5% 7.5% 0.8% 23.2% 25.2% 31,151,789 2.72 2.72 115,562,496 84,683,495 17.5% 100.0% 68.8% 31.2% 7.5% 0.8% 22.9% 25.0%
(1) Interest expense includes amortization of debt discount and amortization of debt-issuance costs. Sources: Company reports and William Blair & Company, L.L.C. estimates
453
8/11/09 - O
12/31/10
Current Rating Distribution (as of 02/28/11) Coverage Universe Percent Outperform (Buy) Market Perform (Hold) Underperform (Sell) 65 34 1
Inv. Banking Relationships* Outperform (Buy) Market Perform (Hold) Underperform (Sell)
Percent 9 1 0
*Percentage of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients, defined as companies for which William Blair has received compensation for investment banking services within the past 12 months. Brian Drab, Liping Cai attests that 1) all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his/her personal views about any and all of the securities and companies covered by this report, and 2) no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed by him/her in this report. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prohibit us from doing so. Other than certain periodical industry reports, the majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as deemed appropriate by the analyst. Stock Rating: William Blair & Company, L.L.C. uses a three-point system to rate stocks. Individual ratings reflect the expected performance of the stock relative to the broader market over the next 12 months. The assessment of expected performance is a function of near-term company fundamentals, industry outlook, confidence in earnings estimates, valuation, and other factors. Outperform (O) stock expected to outperform the broader market over the next 12 months; Market Perform (M) stock expected to perform approximately in line with the broader market over the next 12 months; Underperform (U) stock expected to underperform the broader market over the next 12 months; Not Rated (NR) the stock is currently not rated. Company Profile: The William Blair research philosophy is focused on quality growth companies. Growth companies by their nature tend to be more volatile than the overall stock market. Company profile is a fundamental assessment, over a longer-term horizon, of the business risk of the company relative to the broader William Blair universe. Factors assessed include: 1) durability and strength of franchise (management strength and track record, market leadership, distinctive capabilities); 2) financial profile (earnings growth rate/consistency, cash flow generation, return on investment, balance sheet, accounting); 3) other factors such as sector or industry conditions, economic environment, confidence in long-term growth prospects, etc. Established Growth (E) Fundamental risk is lower relative to the broader William Blair universe; Core Growth (C) Fundamental risk is approximately in line with the broader William Blair universe; Aggressive Growth (A) Fundamental risk is higher relative to the broader William Blair universe. The ratings and company profile assessments reflect the opinion of the individual analyst and are subject to change at any time.
454
455
Mark Tobin , (949) 720-5775 mtobin@roth.com Steve Chen, (86)(21)6141-5757 schen@roth.com Emma Jia Zhao, CFA , (86) (21) 6141-5757 x 7825 ezhao@roth.com Sales (800) 933-6830, Trading (800) 933-6820
| HRBN - $16.68 - NASDAQ | Buy HRBN: 4Q10 EPS Roughly In-line; Privatization Offer Still Drives Share Value
Q4 revenues below estimates; Adjusted EPS roughly in-line. 4Q10 revenue equaled $106.2M vs. ROTH/Consensus est. of $110.2M/$109.0M, primarily on softer-than-expected sales in specialty motors ($14.0M vs. est. $15.8M) and weak seasonality in linear motors ($17.0M vs. est. $18.0M est.). Gross margins declined sequentially from 30.7% in Q3 to 29.2% (vs. 31.1% est.). Non-GAAP EPS equaled $0.62, vs. ROTH est. of $0.63 and ahead of Consensus by 2 cents. Non-GAAP EPS excludes $0.21 in non-recurring items such as bad debt provisions for Simo ($5.2 million) and buyout associated expenses ($1.4 million). New business developments encouraging. HRBN, for the first time, received orders beyond its existing customer (Daqing) for 35 oil pumps which management expects to ship in June 2011. The Company also received the first order from Beijing Airport Express to install eight linear motor propulsion systems as a trial. Management expects mass production of metro trains to begin upon successful completion of this trial program. Buy-out is the primary value driver. We believe HRBN's share price will remain decoupled from fundamentals and view valuation as driven by the outstanding privatization offer. We will update our model within a subsequent research note. Intraday price: $16.84 at 12:29 PM ET
Pro-forma EPS for all periods Revenue ($ millions) Yr Dec 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q YEAR 2010 105.5A 105.4A 109.4A 110.2E 430.5E 2011E Curr 113.3E 123.0E 139.6E 144.3E 520.2E 2012E Curr 636.0E
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q1
2010
2011
Created by BlueMatrix
Refer to important disclosure information and rating System Definition on pages 3 - 4 of this report. Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Roth Capital Partners, LLC | 24 Corporate Plaza | Newport Beach CA 92660 | 949 720 5700 | Member FINRA/SIPC
456
VALUATION
Our estimates and price target are under review. Our $26 PT is based on the expected price of the proposed buy-out. Factors that may impede HRBN shares from reaching price target include s Negative sentiment from the press could continue to weight on U.S.-listed China companies. s There are still numerous steps in the process to an effective takeout, some of which could lead to delays in completing the transaction. s Continued share weakness could lead to a lower takeout offer. s The absence of a buyout could pressure shares.
RISKS
Change in macro policies in China. Two of HRBN's major catalysts, oil pump for oilfield and linear motors for urban metro lines, can be largely affected by central and local government policies. The development of urban railways can experience delays that out of control of HRBN, such as delay in construction. Volatile raw materials costs HRBN is subject to market fluctuations and volatility of two major raw materials, copper and steel respectively.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Harbin Electric, Inc. develops, engineers, manufactures and sells an array of industrial electric motors, customized linear motors, controller automation systems, automobile specialty micro-motors, and other special motors. The Company operates, through its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Harbin Tech Full Electric Co., Ltd (HTFE). The Company offers three key product lines: industrial electric motors, linear motors and their integrated application systems, and automobile specialty micro-motors.
MENTIONED COMPANIES
Page 2 of 4
457
Disclosures:
ROTH makes a market in shares of Harbin Electric, Inc. and as such, buys and sells from customers on a principal basis. On September 28, 2010, ROTH changed its rating system in order to replace the Hold rating with Neutral.
Rating and Price Target History for: Harbin Electric, Inc. (HRBN) as of 03-16-2011
12/23/08 B:$15 03/13/09 B:$9 05/08/09 B:$13 07/01/09 B:$20 08/11/09 B:$23 11/02/09 B:$29 05/10/10 B:$33 10/13/10 H:$26 10/26/10 B:$26 25
20
15
10
Q1 2008
Q2
Q3 2009
Q1
Q2
Q3 2010
Q1
Q2
Q3 2011
0 Q1
Created by BlueMatrix
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Services shows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of 03/17/11 Rating Buy [B] Neutral [N] Sell [S] Not Rated [NR] Count 201 59 7 0 Percent 71.5 21.0 2.5 0.0 Count 44 5 0 0 Percent 21.9 8.5 0 0
Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12-month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A security, which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates an expectation that the price will decline by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Not Rated: A security which at the time the rating is instituted and or reiterated, indicates that we have no opinion or expectations as to the price of the security over the next 12 months. Not Covered (NC): ROTH does not publish research or have an opinion about the security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months.The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as
Page 3 of 4
458
Page 4 of 4
459