REAL-TIME QUALITY EVALUATION

OF STRUCTURAL TIMBER

Markus Deublein
1
, Raimund Mauritz
2
, Jochen Khler
1


ABSTRACT: Modern grading machines facilitate the integration of the grading process into the industrialized
production scheme with its high demand for production rate. Beside the speed the efficiency of the grading machines
depends on the machines capability to divide the gross supply of ungraded timber into sub-sets of graded timber that
fulfil some predefined requirements.
The current European standard for machine strength grading of structural timber EN 14081 provides different methods
for the control of grading machine settings. These are either machine or output controlled. However, recent insights of
timber manufactures, engineers and researchers indicate that both of these methods bear some shortcomings. These are
mainly connected to the machine control strategy which is considered as too static and not capable to take into account
the large variations of the origin, sawing pattern and growth condition and therefore the large time-, supplier or sawing
pattern dependent variability of the properties of the ungraded material that is present in a real market situation of a
large or medium sized timber manufacturer. On the other hand, the output control strategy is regarded as cumbersome
and expensive since a large amount of timber material has to be assessed by destructive tests, and not all of the available
information from the tests is used for the recalibration of the grading machine.
In the present paper the basis for enhancing the efficiency of grading machines is shown. The concept builds on
utilizing the entire available information continuously gathered by the grading machine during its operational process.
Focus is set on the discussion how deviations in the material properties of the ungraded timber can be qualified as being
critical and different approaches for automated detection of critical quality shifts in the input material of the timber
manufacturing processes are presented. The influence of the sample sizes that are used for the control of the
characteristic values in each strength grade is discussed.
The outcomes of this paper may serve as a basic approach on how real-time information of a grading device can be
utilized for industrial applications aiming at efficient and reliable machine grading strategies for structural timber.
KEYWORDS: structural timber, quality control, machine grading, control limits


1 INTRODUCTION
123

In general, when considering the control of
manufacturing processes, the problem is one of
maintaining a production process in such a state that the
output from the process conforms to given design
requirements (e. g. characteristic values for strength,
stiffness and density). During the operation phase the
process will be subject to changes which cause the
quality of the output to deteriorate. And also the input
material quality of the process may already be subject to
significant quality aberrations.
A traditional definition of quality is based on the
viewpoint that products must meet the requirements of
those who use them [2]. In general the quality of
conformance is strongly influenced by various factors.
These include a. o. the choice of the manufacturing
process, the training and supervision of the personnel,
the types of process controls, tests, and rates of
inspection, the extent to which these procedures are

1
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Institute of Structural
Engineering, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 15, 8093
Zurich, Switzerland. Email: deublein@ibk.baug.ethz.ch
2
DOKA Industrie GmbH, Reichsstrasse 23, 3300 Amstetten,
Austria. Email: raimund.mauritz@doka.com


followed and the motivation of the workforce to achieve
quality. Furthermore, the quality of a product is
considered to be inversely proportional to its variability.
That means that if the variability in the input timber
material properties of a product decreases, the quality of
the product increases. Therefore, reduction of variability
leads directly to increased benefit of the manufacturing
process [4].
Statistical methods play a central role in quality control
procedures since the variability can only be described in
statistical terms. On this way it is typical to classify data
on quality characteristics as either attributes or variables
data. The first are usually discrete data, taken in form of
counting processes, e. g. the proof loading of timber
boards and the test if one particular specimen survives
the captured load or not. The discrete number of failures
is counted and evaluated as attributes. The second are
continuous measurements, such as knots sizes or
modulus of elasticity. Desired values (DV) can be
defined for a specific quality characteristic with upper
and lower bounds (upper control limit UCL and lower
control limit LCL) derived from the desired value. The
control limits together with the centre line define an
interval within which the statistic under consideration
will lie with a high probability (significance level) when
the process is in a state of statistical control. Within the
current investigations, the grading machine settings are
considered to be the control variable, which can be
varied as a function of the measured and indicated
material properties so as to change the value of the
output characteristics. The output characteristics are
equal to the estimations of the grade determining
properties (GDP) which are strength, stiffness and
density.
Timber is by nature a very inhomogeneous building
material. On a large scale strength and stiffness related
timber material properties are a product of e.g. the
specific wood species, the geographical location where
the wood has been grown and the sawing pattern which
is applied to cut the logs into boards and beams. In daily
production processes many timber manufacturing
enterprises have to deal with the occurrence of quality
shifts due to above mentioned reasons. The current
European standard for machine strength grading of
structural timber EN 14081 provides different methods
for the control of grading machine settings. These are
either machine or output controlled. However, recent
insights of timber manufactures, engineers and
researchers indicate that both of these methods are
bearing different shortcomings [European Project:
GRADEWOOD]. These are mainly connected to the
machine control strategy which is considered as too
static and not capable to take into account the large
variations of the origin, sawing pattern and growth
condition and therefore the large time-, supplier or
sawing pattern dependent variability of the properties of
the ungraded material that is present in a real market
situation of a large or medium sized timber
manufacturer. On the other hand, the output control
strategy is regarded as cumbersome and expensive since
a large amount of timber material has to be tested by
destructive tests and not all of the available information
from the tests is used for the recalibration of the grading
machine. At European level (European Projects: COST
Action E53, GRADEWOOD) extensive discussions are
conducted concerning the existing grading standard
EN 14081 and as a consequence revisions of this
standard are presently being considered by the Technical
Committee CEN TC124/WG2.
The main target of the investigation described in this
paper is to improve the outcome of the grading process
with regard to the requirements of the standards for
different strength classes or with regard to internal
quality insurance policies. Aiming to achieve an optimal
reliable quality for further production of engineered
timber products like e.g. glued laminated timber. In this
context two major question arise: (1.) Is it reasonable to
tailor the machine settings continuously to the currently
observed quality of the input timber material or (2.) do
we want to find out the overall quality which is
acceptable for delivery to the construction site?
In the paper at hand, building on the probabilistic
approach for machine grading quality control described
in [5] a possible procedure for identification of
systematic changes in the tested material quality directly
based on the machine grading measurements, at the same
time as these are obtained, is outlined.
The first step is a detailed description of the dataset
which is used for the underlying investigations.
Predictive characteristic values are assessed for sub-
samples of the total dataset and based on different
statistical approaches in a second step. The
characteristics of the sub-samples are compared with
each other and the influence of the chosen statistical
approach and sample size is discussed. The last step is to
describe different approaches for the detection of quality
shifts in the timber input material. This includes the
application of the CUSUM method according to
EN 14081-3 with non-destructive machine data, the
definition of upper and lower control limits as an
alternative approach and the comparison of different
source countries by means of regression analysis
between the machine measured indicating properties.

All investigations are based on observations of the
indicating property only. No corresponding strength,
stiffness and density values are available for the
moment. The aim is to gather as much information as
possible just by observations of non-destructively
measureable properties. Investigations on large datasets
with non-destructive grading machine data enable to
describe and analyze the course of the grading process
on a very high resolution and without any additional
costs. However, the price for this is that the
interrelationship between the indicated properties and the
real timber material properties cannot be described.
Hence, applicability and evaluation of the concepts
would require additional destructive testing data.

2 DATA
A dataset of a large sized timber manufacturing
enterprise is used containing monitoring data of graded
Norway Spruce (picea abies) which has been
documented over a time period close to one month.
Indicating properties for tension strength (IPmor),
tension modulus of elasticity (IPmoe) and density
(IPdens) are assessed by the grading machine
GoldenEye 706 [3]. The GoldenEye 706 grading
machine is a combination of an optical vibration
measurement device for quantifying the dynamic
modulus of elasticity and an X-ray scanning device for
measurement of dimension, density and knot values of
the boards.
While the dimensions (43x85 mm), the sawing pattern (2
ex log) and the log diameters (13-15cm top end) are
considered to remain constant over time, source
countries of the timber and the corresponding suppliers
change every now and then. Every value of the
indicating property can be assigned to a certain producer
and country. The mentioned constant factors which
normally lead to specific variability in the material
properties offer now the inimitable chance to investigate
solely the effect of varying source countries and the
consequences on the observed material properties.

In Figure 1 all consecutive observations of IPmor
(n=161265) are plotted over a time period of one month.
Definite shifts in the indicated material properties are
observable. The most significant steps can be observed
roughly at board numbers 2000, 22000, 40000,
122000 and 142000.



Figure 1: Time series of grading machine measured
tension strength indicating property.


3 PROCESS CHARACTERISATION
For the characterisation of the course of process and for
the identification of input material quality shifts the total
dataset is split into consecutive sum-samples and quality
of each sub-sample is defined by assessing its mean
value and 0.5-fractile value probabilistically. Again, the
entire investigations for the process characterisations are
based just on observations of the non-destructively
measured indicating properties of tension strength,
tension modulus of elasticity and timber density.
Therefore, the assessed 0.05-fractile value just serves as
a quality criterion for the timber input material and
should not be mixed up with the required characteristic
value for tension strength in the context of grading
timber into a specific strength class e. g. according to
EN 338.

3.1 SAMPLING & PARAMETER ESTIMATION
The total dataset is sub-divided into k=160 samples each
of size s=1000. The observations of each sub-sample are
used to estimate the parameters of an appropriate
probability density functions. Due to the fact that in
general the un-graded tension strength and tension
modulus of elasticity (MOE) can be considered as being
lognormal distributed also the indicating properties for
these two material properties are treated as to be
lognormal distributed. Timber density and its indicating
property are considered to be normal distributed. For
more straightforward computations during the
assessment of the probability distributions and regression
analysis the lognormal distributed values of the
indicating tension strength and MOE are transformed
logarithmically. Hence, using the MLM, the parameters
of the prior probability distribution functions are
estimated as normal distributed random variables with
mean values, standard deviations and correlations.
Figure 2 illustrates the assessed probability density
functions for every particular sub-sample of the tension
strength indicating property. Consecutive sub-samples
are taken from the total dataset and, therefore, the
process quality is represented continuously in k=160
steps over a time period of one month.
The method of the moving average (or moving data
window) with s=1000 in 1 adds (1+1000, 2+1000,
3+1000, ...) for the assessment of distribution parameters
and characteristic values is also applied. However,
compared to the previously explained sampling method,
this requires 1000 times more computation time.
Therefore, sub-samples are taken consecutively with no
overlapping specimens.

In structural reliability applications it is necessary to
assess the probability distribution function of the
relevant material properties. Assuming that a sufficiently
large number of experiments have been performed
regarding the relevant material property, it is in principle
a straightforward task to select a probability density
function and to estimate its parameters based on the
Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM). The resulting
density function might be considered as a prior density
function representing the timber material property when
no grading procedures are invoked.




Figure 2: Sampling of sub-samples of size s=1000 and
parameter estimation of sub-sample
distributions.

The general principle of the Maximum Likelihood
Method is that the parameters of the distribution function
are assessed such that the likelihood of the observed
random sample is maximized.
Let the observations of the normal distributed
logarithmic indicating property ( ) ln IPmor be the
random variable of interest, denoted as X . The
probability density function of X is then formulated as
( ; )
X
f x where
1 2
( , )
T
u u = are the distribution
parameters to be estimated.
In case of ( ) ln IPmor the parameters to be estimated
are
( ) 1 ln X
u =
and
( ) 2 ln X
u o =
.
If the sub-sample, from which the distribution
parameters
1 2
( , )
T
u u = are estimated, is collected in the
vector
1 2,
( , ,.., )
T
n
x x x = x the likelihood ( ) L x of the
observed random sample is defined as:
1
( ) ( )
n
X i
i
L f x
=
=
[
x

(1)
The maximum likelihood point estimates of the
parameters
1 2
( , )
T
u u = may now be obtained by
solving the following optimization problem:
min( ( )) L
u
x

(2)
Instead of the likelihood function it is more
straightforward to consider the log-likelihood ( ) l x
i.e.:
1
( ) log( ( ))
n
X i
i
l f x
=
=

x

(3)
Based on this the covariance matrix

C for the
parameter estimates may be determined through the
information matrix H which contains the second-order
partial derivatives of the log-likelihood function. The
information matrix may be found to be:
( )
( ) ( )
1
1
2 3
2 2
2
1 1
1 1
3 2 4
2 2 2
2 -
2 - 3 -
n
i
i
n n
i i
i i
x
n
x x
n
u
u u
u u
u u u
=
= =
| |
|
|
|
=
|
|
|
+
|
\ .

H

(4)
whereby the covariance matrix is evaluated as:
1
=

C H (5)
In probabilistic modelling where the timber material
properties enter as random variables it is then possible to
take into account the statistical uncertainty associated
with the estimates of the distribution parameters for the
distribution function, simply by including the
distribution parameters in the reliability analysis as
normal distributed variables with the assessed mean
values and co-variances.


3.2 CHARACTERISTIC/DESIRED VALUES
Based on the calculated distributions parameters the
mean values and 0.05-fractile values for every sub-
sample and for every indicating property are calculated
and plotted in Figure 3. The straight line in the middle of
the figures illustrates the average value of all sub-sample
mean values. The lower straight line indicates the
average value of all sub-sample 0.05-fractiles. The
jagged lines represent the mean and 0.05-fractiles of the
three indicating properties for every particular sub-
sample distribution. The fluctuations in the lines clearly
confirm the quality aberrations which have already been
observable in Figure 1. The most significant shifts are
observable exactly at the same point of time regardless
which indicating property is taken into account.
The average value of all mean values as well as the
average value of all 0.05-fractiles is taken as the desired
value for input timber material properties. That means
that the timber material as it is delivered to the
manufacturing enterprise should in average exhibit these
statistical characteristics. The assessed desired values for
the overall input material quality are given in Table 1.
Table 1: Average values of mean values and 0.05-
fractiles of s=160 sample distributions each
with n=1000 observations. Parameters of the
distributions are estimated based on
Maximum Likelihood Method.
IP_MOR
[MPa]
IP_MOE
[MPa]
IP_DENS
[kg/m3]
average of all sub-
sample means
29.2 12638 459.7
average of all sub-
sample 0.05-
fractiles
15.8 9138 387.3

For the IPmor and IPdens the average of the 0.05-
fractiles is taken as desired characteristic of timber
material input quality. Lower Control Limits and Upper
Control Limits can be defined based on these desired
quality characteristics as it will be shown in chapter 4.2.
For MOE the average value of the sub-sample means is
used as desired quality level.
Figure 3 shows for IPmor, IPmoe and IPdens the mean
and 0.05-fractile values which are assessed
probabilistically based on the observations of each sub-
sample.

Figure 3: Time series of characteristic mean and 0.05-
fractile values of all k=160 sub-samples for
IPmor, IPmoe and IPdens.
On a second step the influence of the varying sub-sample
size is investigated. For this purpose, sub-samples of size
s=20, s=100, s=500 and s=1000 are taken consecutively
from the total dataset. Based on the observations of the
indicating properties within these sub-samples the
parameters for the distribution functions are estimated by
MLM and the process characteristics (mean and 0.05-
fractile) are assessed.
Figure 4 illustrates the effect of the different sample
sizes Deviations in the lines of the mean values, the
0.05- and 0.95-fractiles can be observed according to the
different sample sizes. Also the desired value for the
indicating tension strength being the average 0.05-
fractile value is shifted in dependency to the sample size.
Statistical uncertainties are dependent to the amount of
observed data and are responsible for the effect of
increasing dispersion of the process characteristics with
decreasing sample size.
For a more apparent illustration just the sample range
between board number 80000 and 130000 is shown in
figure 4.

Figure 4: Illustration of the effect of sub-sample size
on the assessed distribution characteristic
and desired values.
Further investigations are made to describe the influence
of the chosen statistical approaches on the assessed
process characteristics. The first approach just applies
ordered sample statistics to calculate the sample mean,
0.05- and 0.95-quantile values. For the second approach
the sub-sample data is used to assess point estimates of
the distribution parameters. Statistical as well as model
uncertainties are not taken into account as long as solely
point estimates of the parameters are calculated.
Therefore, the third approach based on the parameter
estimation of the Maximum Likelihood Method, also
represents the different types of uncertainties. Hence, in
addition to the point estimates of the parameters, also the
covariance of the parameters is included into the
subsequent assessment of the process characteristics.

Within the same sample range as Figure 4, Figure 5
illustrates the characteristic values of IPmor calculated
based on the described three different statistical
approaches. The mean values for every sub-sample are
the same for all three methods. However, the fractile
values may differ from each other. Especially the 0.95-
fractile value shows differences between the different
methods. This can be explained by the applied lognormal
distribution which is tailored to the right in case of
IPmor. The more uncertainties are incorporated into the
distribution model, the larger becomes the upper tail of
the distribution.

Figure 5: Time sequence, representing Influence of
different statistical approaches on the
characteristic values of the individual sub-
samples.
For a consistent representation of the timber material
properties the uncertainties have to be taken into
account. That is why within the subsequent steps of the
investigations always the method of maximum
likelihood is applied.
4 REAL TIME QUALITY EVALUATION
For the consistent modelling of the stress grading
procedure the strategy has to be subdivided into two
major steps. The first is to identify shifts in the
characteristics of the input timber material which is
intended to be passed through the grading device. Since
the current investigations are focused on timber material
with constant dimension, sawing pattern and log sizes,
these shifts, if they occur at all, may just be caused by
different source countries or suppliers. Quality and
quantity of the deviating characteristics have to be
described and taken into account precisely. Monitoring
strategies and real-time information processing of the
observed grading machine measurements may serve as
an appropriate way to challenge this step of the model
development.
The second step and this is the perspective for future
investigations is to use the information about quality
aberrations in the input material properties for the
development of more efficient grading strategies. Given
any indication for quality deviations the grading process
in general and the machine settings in particular may be
adjusted in accordance to the extent of the observed
quality shift. Based on a consistent grading model which
incorporates these both steps, recommendations may be
provided for individual grading environments to
maximize both, the reliability as well as the benefit of
the produced timber products.

Three methods for the identification of aberrations in the
quality of the input timber material are applied to the
provided dataset. The first one adapts the control chart
method which is given in the European Standard
EN 14081, part 3 as one of two possibilities for machine
strength grading in Europe. In the context of the
investigations of this paper this method will further on
be denoted as the non-destructive CUSUM. The second
method, the control limit method, first defines desired
values for the overall input timber material properties
and based on these, upper and lower control limits are
calculated to control the quality of the input timber
material. A third method quantifies differences in the
regression coefficients where the relationships of the
different indicating properties are compared to each
other between the different source countries of the
timber. The effect of growth areas is discussed based on
this method.

4.1 NON-DESTRUCTIVE CUSUM
Statistical process control (SPC) may serve as an
effective tool for the reduction of variability of the
graded timber material. Control charts are suitable for
detecting patterns of variation in datasets which indicate
deviations from the desired material quality [1]. There
are various types of control charts all of them aiming to
identify situations where the production process runs out
of control. A very good overview of the different types
of control charts and quality assessment methods is
given in the annex of ISO 3534.
Application of control charts for timber machine stress
grading was first presented by [6]. The method found its
way first into the European standard EN 519 and still can
be found as an approved grading method in the current
version of EN 14081-3.
In general samples of defined size are randomly taken
directly from production after grading and subsequently
proof-loaded to a proof-load value which is assessed
based on the desired material characteristic (e.g.
characteristic bending strength for a particular strength
class). For bending strength simply the attribute is
recorded stating if the specimen survived the proof-
load or not. Results are documented in so called
attributes charts which are also described in ISO 8258.
At the same time bending modulus of elasticity is
measured and observed values are entered in so-called
variables charts. For both types of charts calculation
requirements are defined in the mentioned standard and
for both different types of charts have to be used when
the process is out or in control. This is also considered in
the underlying investigations.
However, control charts are used for machine strength
grading of structural timber in Europe rather rarely. The
reason is that they are considered not to be appropriate
for grading of manifold dimensions like they are present
at the timber market in Europe. Furthermore, due to the
required frequent destructive tests, the method appears to
be elaborate and expensive.
In the investigations at hand, the basic principle of
control charts according to EN 14081-3 is adapted to the
dataset of machine data. The specialness of this is that
just non-destructively measured observations of the
indicating properties of tension strength, tension
modulus of elasticity and timber density are used. Hence,
modifications and assumptions have to be made as
follows.

IPmor
Control of the values of the non-destructively indicated
tension strength is realized by the utilization of attributes
charts. Framework and requirements of EN 14081-3 are
applied as if to control real tension strength values.
Therefore, the following assumptions are made:
The desired characteristic value for the indicating
tension strength is defined to be equal to the average of
the 0.05-fractile values of all samples taken from the
total dataset. Sample size is s=1000 and distribution
parameters for the sample are estimated based on MLM.
The desired value for indicating tension strength is equal
to the average value of all sub-sample 0.05-fractiles.
15.8
IPmor
q = . (6)
According to the CUSUM method of EN 14081-3 this
value is modified by the
h
k size factor as given in
EN 384:
0.2
(150 / )
h
k width = . (7)
The proof load value in the context of these
investigations has to be considered as a threshold value
for the indicating property. It assessed based on
0.96
h IPmor
load k q = . (8)
The attributes chart parameters for controlling the values
of the tension strength indicating property are adapted
from the standard as
1 1 and 6 K , Y , Z . = = =

IPmoe
The values of the indicated modulus of elasticity are
controlled by applying the variables control charts of
EN 14081-3. No further transformations are made.
The variables chart parameters for controlling the values
of the tension modulus of elasticity indicating property
are adapted from the standard as
0 95 345
mean
K . E = (9)
where
mean
E is the average value of all sub-sample
mean values.
Furthermore, the parameters 7381
mean
A / E = as well
as
r
2 6 and B =2.8
a
B . = are used. Based on these, the
remaining parameters for the variables chart can be
assessed to
0 0467
0 0467
mean a
mean r
Y . E B
N . E B
and
Z Y N.
=
=
= +


IPdens
In general, the CUSUM output control method like
provided in EN 14081-3 does not require any control of
the timber density. However, since density can also be
an important material property and since the applied
grading machine is capable to assess this property with a
high accuracy, its values are also controlled in the
underlying investigations. Attributes charts are used for
the control of timber density values. The desired value is
the average value of the sub-sample 0.05-fractiles, being
equal to
387.3
IPdens
q = . (10)
The attributes control chart parameters K, Y and Z are the
same as for the IPmor control charts.

Results of the applied CUSUM attributes and variables
charts are given in Figure 6. These results show that
every time when the CUSUM values are larger than the
accepted threshold value of Y, the process clearly is
indicated to be out of control. This indication works out
for all indicating properties at the same point of time
during the course of process and fits quite good to the
real observed shifts of the data points in Figure 1.
The most significant shifts in the input material as they
are already observable in figure 1 lead to obvious
reactions at the same point of time or board number of
the CUSUM control process (Figure 6) regardless which
indicating property is taken into account. However, to
avoid false alarms and to guarantee an optimum
identification of quality aberrations all three indicating
properties should be controlled in parallel. The most
obvious reactions can be observed for the attributes of
the tension strength indicating property (CUSUM
IPmor).

Figure 6: Results of non-destructively applied CUSUM
control charts according to EN 14081-3 for
all indicating properties.
According to EN 14081-3, when an out of control
situation is indicated, the manufacturer first has to check
the technical performance of the grading facilities. If no
technical causes are detectable he has then the possibility
to adjust the settings of the grading device as a reaction
to the indicated quality shift. Yield as well as reliability
can be optimized in this way. The development of
different efficient ways of reaction to quality shifts will
be part of upcoming investigations.

4.2 DEFINITION OF CONTROL LIMITS
Control limits are defined for the indicating properties of
tension strength, modulus of elasticity and density. The
so called desired values (DV) are based on the
probabilistically assessed characteristics of all 160 sub-
samples. For IPmor and IPdens the DV is the average
value of all 0.05-fractiles of the sub-samples. For IPmoe
the desired value is equal to the average of all mean
values.
The UCL and LCL values are formulated as boundary
values to control for every particular sample if its
characteristic value lies between these boundaries. For
IPmor the limits are set as follows:
05 05
05 05
1
0 2
1
IPmor . .
k
. i.
i
UCL q . q
q q
k
=
= +
=

(11)
where
05 i.
q is the 0.05-fractile of the i th sample each of
which contains 1000 s = observations of the indicating
properties.
Accordingly, the lower control limit can be formulated
as:
05 05
0 2
IPmor . .
LCL q . q = . (12)
For the IPmoe the control limits are assessed as
0 05
IPmoe
UCL m . m = + (13)
and
0 05
IPmoe
LCL m . m = (14)
Where m is the average value of all sub-sample means
of the indicated modulus of elasticity.

For the indicated timber density the control values are
calculated to be
0 02
IPdens
UCL q . q = + (15)
and
0 02
IPdens
LCL q . q = . (16)
The factors with which the average 0.05-fractiles are
multiplied in equations 1.11 to 1.16 are assessed on
iterative steps to gain an optimal control effect without
too many false alarms.
Figure 7 shows how control limits for the indicating
properties may be defined to control that graded material
properties remain within pre set ranges around the
desired quality characteristics. Upper and lower control
limits are defined as given in equations 1.11 to 1.16.
Values above the UCL indicate where the yield and
monetary benefit of the process may be enhanced by
adjusting the grading machine settings. The values
beneath the LCL line represent situations where the
desired quality values are not reached with consequences
to the reliability of the end product. Values between
upper and lower control limits indicate that the process
runs efficiently.
Figure 7 shows, that this method also clearly indicates
situations in which the grading machine settings should
be adjusted for optimizing the yield and the reliability of
the graded output material.

Figure 7: Upper and lower control limits (UCL and
LCL) are defined based on desired values
(DV) for IPmor, IPmoe and IPdens.
4.3 COMPARISON OF REGRESSION
COEFFICIENTS
The third method contains the comparison of the
regression coefficients between the three indicating
properties assessed on data of remarkably varying input
timber material quality.
Figure 8 illustrates the influence of the source country of
the timber on the characteristic values of the indicated
tension strength. Now, the dataset is ordered first by
country and then by supplier. Clear downward shifts are
detectable from country to country especially at board
numbers around 30000 and 48000 (country 3), 70000
and 83000 (country 5), 117000 and 132000 (country
7). There are only minor shifts within one country
although timber from one country may be delivered by
different suppliers.


Figure 8: Quality shifts can be observed depending on
the source country of the timber.
Regression analysis is conducted for the different IPs of
timber originating from different countries. It is shown,
how these coefficients vary from country to country. In
many previous investigations the regression analysis is
only conducted for the relationship between the
destructively and non-destructively measured timber
material properties. For the underlying investigations the
regression analysis is conducted between the non-
destructively measured indicating properties and the
regressions coefficients of each country and they are
compared with each other.

Regression analysis
Bayesian regression analysis is used very often in
engineering decision analysis where empirical
relationships based on experimental evidence have to be
described. To assess the interrelationship e. g. between
the indicating properties of IPmor and IPmoe a
probabilistic model for the dependent random variable
Y (IPmoe) is to be estimated based on a linear function
of the explanatory random variable X (IPmor).
In general, if it is assumed that n experiment or test
results of X and Y are available as vectors of ( )
T
, x y
the interrelationship between x and y can be expressed
as follows:
0 1

i i i
y x | | c = + + (17)
where
0
| and
1
| are the model parameters (regression
coefficients),
{ } 1 2 i , ,...,n e is the index of test results
and
i
c is the error term which is considered to be
normal distributed with zero mean and known standard
deviation
c
o . Hence, it is seen that Y for given
observations of X is also normal distributed.
T T
= X y X X
(18)
The vector y contains the test results
i
y while the
matrix X contains ones in the first column and the test
results
i
x in the second column.
Equation 1.17 can be reformulated as
( )
1
T T

= X X X y (19)
The standard deviation of the error term between the
model and the measurements is assessed by
2
1
n
i
i
n t
c
c
o
=
=

(20)
where n is the number of measurements and t is the
number of parameters . The variance of the error can
be written in matrix form as
( ) ( ) ( )
2
T
/ n t
c
o = y X y X (21)
The conditional distribution of Y given and X
follows a Normal distribution with the following
parameters:
( ) E Y | ; = X X (22)
( )
2
Var Y |
c
o ; = X (23)
The uncertainty of the parameters can be represented
by a covariance matrix, where the parameter variances
are contained in the diagonal:
( )
2
Var
c |
o = V (24)
with
( )
1
T
|

= V X X . (25)
In case the random variable Y needs to be modelled
using not only one but r components in X , the model
can be generalized to:
1

r
i ij j i
j
y x | c
=
= +

(26)
This is the case when different grading machine
measurements are used to assess one indicating property.
Table 3: Results of regression analysis for country
specific interrelationship between the
different indicating properties.

IPmor / IPmoe IPmor / IPdens IPmoe / IPdens
country 1 (n=27789)
0
|
-19.43 -25.25 -4676
1
| 0.0038 0.1202 38.1405
c
o
3.1384 6.5152 1465
country 2 (n=552)
0
| -20.34 -31.146 -5222
1
|
0.0037 0.1209 37.4847
c
o 2.7024 6.5152 1343
country 3 (n=19621)
0
|
-18.52 -26.78 -5159
1
|
0.0037 0.1212 38.9872
c
o
3.0464 7.1145 1381
country 4 (n=22061)
0
|
-16.11 -23.93 -5077
1
| 0.0036 0.1192 38.8649
c
o 2.7362 6.3539 1275
country 5 (n=15369)
0
| -16.99 -19.33 -3699
1
|
0.0037 0.1080 35.7621
c
o 2.8922 6.7153 1358
country 6 (n=30028)
0
| -19.76 -29.12 -4656
1
|
0.0038 0.1230 37.0362
c
o 2.9970 6.9135 1365
country 7 (n=18378)
0
|
-20.37 -30.31 -5534
1
|
0.0039 0.1315 40.1777
c
o 3.0037 7.3703 1419
country 8 (n=27686)
0
| -16.65 -25.92 -5620
1
|
0.0036 0.1171 38.9713
c
o 3.0964 7.0923 1423

Bayesian regression analysis is applied for the
comparison of the different interrelationships between
the indicating properties of different source countries of
the timber. Results of the analysis are shown in Table 3.

Considering only the values in Table 3 no large
differences between the regression coefficients of the
different countries can be observed. However, plots of
the regression lines in Figure 9 indicate especially for
country 7 remarkably steeper regression lines than the
lines of the remaining countries. Looking again at Figure
8 it can be observed that country 7 is characterised by a
significant lower IPmor level. The information achieved
by regression analysis can be used in addition to the
results of the non-destructive CUSUM or the method of
control limits. The results of regression analysis between
the different indicating properties give additional
evidence for the previously observed quality shifts
between the countries.


5 DISCUSSOIN AND OUTLOOK
Summing up the results of the underlying investigations
it is shown that there may be serious periodical
aberrations in the input quality of the timber material
which is used for industrial applications. Current
frameworks of the relevant European standards for
machine strength grading do not take this phenomenon
into account sufficiently. The provided ways of grading
are either too static and complex or too extensive and
expensive.
The core element for the detection of quality shifts is the
continuous real-time monitoring of the grading machine
measured strength, stiffness and density indicating
properties. Different approaches can be used to indicate
quality deviations just based on these non-destructive
data measurements. On this way both can be avoided: 1)
Expensive destructive testing procedures although the
material quality and production process is under
control. 2) Inefficient exploitation of the timber
material potential since settings of the grading machine
would be too conservative for extraordinarily good
timber material quality.
Reaction to the currently observed input material quality
is just needed if significant shifts in the predicted
characteristics are observed. Thus, both can be
optimized: the benefit in the context of higher yields and
more accurate classification as well as the reliability of
the timber material characteristics as required for further
manufacturing or by the customer or by the codes and
standards.
The results of the investigations show that shifts in the
input quality may be detected by applying control chart
methods to the observed data. Assumptions have to be
made in accordance to the desired material quality which
is needed for further processing. CUSUM values are
assessed by non-destructive proof loading and recorded
in the control charts.


Figure 9: Regression lines for the interrelationships
between indicating properties within the
different countries. The regression line of
country 7 shows steeper slopes.
As an alternative approach the general average
characteristic values of the timber input material can be
assessed based on probabilistic methods. These may
serve as a benchmark for the definition of so-called
desired values. Accepting a certain range around these
desired values (upper and lower control limit) quality of
the input material can easily be controlled in real-time.
Regression analysis was conducted to show the influence
of different source countries on the regression
coefficients between the assessable indicating properties.
This method gives additional evidence to the detection of
quality shifts.
The objective for future investigations is seen in the
application of the proposed approaches under practical
and industrial environment. Furthermore, ways of
reaction with regard to adjustment of grading machine
settings will be defined and the consequences for the
reliability of the output material properties will be
assessed.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Contributions by DOKA GmbH (Amstetten, Austria)
and MiCROTEC (Brixen, Italy) are acknowledged with
gratitude for allowing us to publish the results of
machine strength grading.

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th
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th
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EN 338 (2010): Structural Timber Strength Classes. Comit
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density. Comit Europen de Normalisation, Brussels,
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