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assets of insurance companies worldwide
Products
Mutual Funds Structured Products Complex Assets Hedge Funds and Fund of
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Authorized funds
EUR 2.0 bn
30% shareholding in Harvest FM DWS Premier Select Trust
Seoul
283.75
71.16 34.13 71.93 351.77 490.35 5.83 4.65 16.96 Fund sizes (USD mio)* 942.60 145.21
EUR 1.6 bn
EUR 1.1 bn
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EUR 0.6 bn
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DWS Asia Premier Trust DWS Global Themes Equity Fund DWS Singapore Equity Fund DWS India Equity Fund DWS China Equity Fund
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EUR 1.5 bn
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EUR 3.9 bn
DWS Asian Small/Mid Cap Fund Recognized funds DWS Global Agribusiness DWS Noor Precious Metals Sec. Fund
EUR 4.0 bn
Source: DB Group Finance Serviced AuM for DeAM companies as of June 2011. * Source: HSBC Trustees / Deutsche Asset Management / State Street as of end August 2011.
Agenda
1
2 3 4
Economy Update
China Market Outlook DWS China Equity Fund Appendix
Global equities sell-off after U.S. rating downgrade and Europe crisis concerns
History will mark down the date - August 5th 2011, S&P downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+. Moodys and Fitch also considered that downgrade would be possible.
Global stock markets slumped after rating downgrade. MSCI AC World Index plummeted 5.1% on August 8th, the first trading day after US downgraded. Greek / Euro sovereign debt issues exacerbate the current situation (Spain, Italy, France)
5
Source: Bloomberg
2011 (F) Old New 1.8 1.6 -0.4 -0.4 1.8 1.8 1.1 1.1 9.3 9.0 4.6 4.6 4.2 4.5 1.9 1.8 3.3 3.3
2012 (F) Old New 2.3 2.3 3.5 2.9 2.0 1.0 2.1 1.5 9.0 8.3 4.2 4.2 4.5 3.3 2.8 2.3 3.8 3.3
Base case scenario: Slower rate of growth expected. Despite the concerns, China will still stand out from the rest of the countries in terms of absolute GDP growth
Luxury brands listing in Hong Kong to tap the growing wealth segment indicative of rising consumption demand
7
as it happened in 2004
120
22 20 18 16 14 12
(%)
28 27 26
100 M2 YoY
80
25 24 23 22
20
21 20 Dec 04
10 Jan 04
Mar 04
May 04
Jul 04
Sep 04
Nov 04
Possible uptrend in the Chinese stock market after M2 reaches the target
40
35
30
PE ratio
5
4 3 2 1 0
LT average
Aug-04
Oct-05
Sep-08
Sep-01
Nov-02
Dec-06
10
Nov-09
Mar-05
May-06
Aug-11
Jun-03
Jan-04
Jun-10
Feb-08
Sep-01
Nov-02
Dec-06
Sep-08
Jan-11
Nov-09
Apr-02
Apr-09
Mar-05
Jan-11
Apr-02
Apr-09
Jul-07
Jul-07
4. China is an increasingly important contributor to world GDP, yet still under-invested by global investors
MSCI AC World Index World Economy (in PPP terms) Distribution of World GDP in 2010 50.2 % Contribution to World GDP Growth 2000-2008 70.7
Weight 13.63
China
India Latin America Russia and other CIS Developed Markets (Total) USA EU-15* Japan AC World Index (Total)/ World Economy
454
372 250 56 6270 2590 1330 1158 9055
2.34
1.15 2.99 0.79 86.37 43.12 20.44 8.64 100.00
16.3
5.3 8.0 4.4 49.8 18.3 17.7 5.6 100.0
29.3
7.3 7.3 7.3 29.3 9.8 9.8 2.4 100.0
Source: MSCI Barra (as of 31 Dec 2010), the Conference Board, Russell Investments, iFAST Compilations
*EU-15 includes Austria, Belgium, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, United Kingdom, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal and Sweden.
12
For illustrative purpose only. This does not constitute as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned
13
For illustrative purpose only. This does not constitute as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned
a) b)
Slower GDP growth, but overall level remains high Inflation remains above 5% but expected to peak in July/ August
c)
d)
e)
f)
15
60 55 50 45 40 35
10Q1
10Q2
10Q3
10Q4
11Q1
11Q2(E)
GDP, YOY %
16 Source: WIND, Harvest Fund Management
20
15 10
0
(2) (4) 1998
5 0
Jan 10
May 10
Sept 10
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Base effect
17
Source: WIND, CRR, Datastream, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, Harvest Global Investments Ltd.
18 Source: WIND, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, Datastream; Harvest Global Investments Ltd.
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2
(%MoM)
(%YoY)
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10
Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11
(40)
(20)
20
20
40
60
10
15
20
25
0
(%) (%)
Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11
% of GDP
We expect both income and private consumption to rise over the years
60
50
40
30
45 40
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000 Wage
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010E
2012E
2014E
Other Income
Private Consumption
Monthly household income (Rmb)
Increasingly affluent middle class Higher spending on other goods and services as the household income increases Discretionary consumption will be the largest beneficiary
21
8
4 0.7% 0.8% 0 0.6 2000 0.7 2001
1.6%
3.1 2005
2.0% 4.2
2.4% 5.3
006
2007
2008
2009
22
Benefited sectors
Consumer, Internet, Tourism, New Energy
12th
2011 2015
11th
20062010
Oct-05
10th
20012005
Oct-00
23
Overall market will likely grow in line with Chinas GDP growth while alpha strategy (stock and sector selection) will likely matter more
Secular growth industries such as consumption, service and healthcare will likely deliver alpha
24
Fund Update
is
recommended
by
*Please refer to the prospectus for details on the investment objective and the fees involved. ^Source: HSBC Trustees. **Source: Morningstar.
2005*
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011^
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
19.66
18.78 0.88
73.74
64.34 9.40
64.87
52.93 11.94
(47.61)
(52.08) 4.47
64.45
55.56 8.89
(7.26)
(6.51) (0.74)
(21.54)
(25.19) 3.65
Source: Bloomberg as of 30th September 2011. Performances are in SGD and on bid-bid basis. Past performance is not indicative of future performance 27
+114.90%
200
150
100 50
+55.64%
Sep-11
28
Source: Bloomberg as of 30th September 2011. Performance in SGD and on bid-bid basis. Rebased at inception date: 04th January 2005 = 100. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
13.33 13.75
14.73 13.66
23.38 24.80
27.00 29.78
24.60 27.07
Source: Harvest Global Investments Ltd., Gross of fees in SGD as of 31st August 2011, NAV publication date: 4th January 2005 Past performance is not indicative of future performance Deutsche Asset Management (Asia) Limited (DeAM Asia) appointed Harvest Global Investments Limited as the sub-manager of DWS China Equity Fund (the Fund) with effect from 1 September 2009. Performance before 1 September 2009 refers to that of the Fund managed by DeAM Asia. The investment objective of the Fund remains the same and is managed by 29 the same management team with similar investment policies and strategies
For illustrative purpose only. Holdings are subject to change without notice This does not constitute as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned
30 Source: Harvest Global Investments Ltd., as of 31st August 2011
100%
31
Hong Kong
PR China
Industry recognition for the fund management team in 2010 Harvest Global Investments Ltd. (HGI)
Performance / Greater China Region / Five years Winner: Harvest Global Investments Ltd. managing DWS China Equity Fund
Hong Kong / Best Offshore China Fund House Winner: Harvest Global Investments Ltd
Fund Awards
2008
Best fund over 3 years Equity China 2009
34
Portfolio Positioning
6.04%
11.90%
Portfolio Weight
Benchmark Weight
Utilities
Information Technology Materials Consumer Staples Energy Financials Industrials [Cash]
Top 3 overweights
25%
30%
35%
40%
For illustrative purpose only. Holdings are subject to change without notice
36 Source: Harvest Global Investments Ltd. as of 31st August 2011, Benchmark: MSCI China Total
Portfolio positioning
We overweight:
Consumer discretionary (focusing on inflation beneficiaries especially retailers with strong same-store-sales growth). Information Technology (positive on Internet and IT servicing companies which provide strong secular growth with little policy risk). Healthcare (focusing on companies with leading, innovative products which are less affected by price control by government).
We underweight:
Financials (life insurance premium growth slower-than-expected; property policies will continue to be implemented). Industrials (slower industrial production in China in the near term as well as slower overseas demand). Consumer staples (margin pressure as costs are rising while government restricts the increase in product prices; rich valuation).
For illustrative purpose only. This does not constitute as a recommendation to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned
37 Source: Harvest Global Investments Ltd. as of 31st July 2011. Subject to change without notice.
2.
Domestic advantage: Local research teams with in-depth knowledge of the domestic equity markets and sector trends Award-winning fund: Best fund over 3 years (2008, 2009, 2010)
3.
38
Appendix
Potential government measures: Fiscal / Monetary policy RMB appreciation / depreciation China has both the political will and fiscal capacity for stimulus if needed
40 Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, Oct 2011, DeAM analysis
Red Chips
S Chips
Listed on
Shanghai Shenzhen
Shanghai Shenzhen
Hong Kong (Overseas Singapore incorporated stateStock owned or stateExchange controlled enterprises) HKD SGD
Currency traded in
Renminbi
HKD
Non Chinese residents Residents with No resident appropriate foreign restrictions currency dealing accounts
No resident restrictions
No restriction
Examples
Bank of China
Huaxin Cement
Lenovo
Yanlord Land
Fund Managers
Jiang Yiqian, Director / Harvest Global Investments Ltd.
Ms. Jiang joined Harvest in September 2009 and is responsible for all Chinese equity investment activities. Prior to Harvest, she worked at Deutsche Asset Management in Hong Kong for 9 years as a portfolio manager for Chinese equities. Her previous experience includes 3 years as an assistant manager of Shanghai International Asset Management (HK) Co., Ltd and 2 years in the Shanghai B share market for Shanghai Shenyin Securities (currently known as Shenyin Wanguo). Ms. Jiang graduated from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics with a degree in Finance. She also holds an MBA in International Banking and Finance from the University of Birmingham, UK.
Michael Huashen Yu, CFA, Portfolio Manager- Harvest Global Investment Ltd.
Michael Yu joined Harvest in May 2010. He starts co-managing the DWS Invest Chinese Equities since September 2010 and is also responsible for China market strategy and China model portfolio. Michael has 12 years of industry experience and 7 years of investment experience. Prior to Harvest, Michael worked for Invesco (HK), managing the pooled HK and China Fund as well as institutional mandates for 3 years. He also worked for China International Capital Corporation (HK) and Cornerstone Asset Management in Canada. He had spent 5 years as a senior loan officer with China Construction Bank. Michael holds a Master of Business Administration degree from the University of Toronto and a Master of Finance degree from the Xiamen University. He is a holder of the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.
Source: Harvest as at September 2010
42
Investment Philosophy
Investment philosophy and core competence
We believe that markets (especially for emerging markets) are not always efficient. We believe that fundamental bottom-up research with top-down sector allocation, coupled with strict risk management provide the most reliable method to generate alpha on a consistent basis.
Our core competence lies in our ability to conduct in-depth, effective bottom-up fundamental research and sector analysis
44
Investment Process
Our investment process is a close mapping to reflect our investment philosophy: Investment process can be defined by the following 4 steps: information gathering, information analysis, portfolio construction and risk control/compliance /trading. We are totally committed to research. We are convinced that over the long term market prices are oriented on fundamental values. For this reason, we follow an investment process that is based on our own, inhouse, fundamental evaluation of each individual stock. The functions of research analysis and portfolio management are combined. Portfolio managers are responsible for research and stock selection within their areas of responsibility.
1. Information Collection
Macro Research Strategy Research Equity Research Sector Research Quantitative Research
2. Information Analysis
Daily Meeting
Investment Target
Weekly Meeting
Trade
Portfolio Construction
Portfolio
Investment Committee
45
Disclaimer
This is for information purposes only and is not the basis for any contract to deal in any security or instrument, or for Deutsche Asset Management (Asia) Limited (DeAM) or its affiliates to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained. This shall not be construed as the making of any offer or invitation to anyone in any jurisdiction in which such offer is not authorised or in which the person making such offer is not qualified to do so or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer. The forecasts provided are based upon our opinion of the market as at this date and are subject to change, dependent on future changes in the market. Any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance. Investments are subject to risks, including possible loss of principal amount invested. The value of shares/ units and their derived income may fall as well as rise. Past performance or any prediction or forecast is not necessarily indicative of future performance. No assurance is given that the investment objective or the targets will be met. This document does not constitute investment advice or recommendation and was prepared without regard to the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person who may receive it. Investors should study all relevant information and consider whether the investment is appropriate for them. DeAM or its affiliates may hold positions in the securities referred. The investment schemes referred are not obligations of, deposits in, or guaranteed by DeAM or any of its affiliates. As permitted under the Directives of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21st January 2002 relating to the undertakings for collective investment in transferable securities (UCITS), derivatives transactions may be used as part of the investment strategy of the investment schemes and not merely for efficient portfolio management and hedging purposes. Investors should consider the investment policy of that investment scheme and its associated risk profile as disclosed in the Singapore Prospectus. You are not authorised to redistribute this document in any jurisdiction in which such distribution is prohibited, nor qualified to make any offer, representation or contract on behalf of DeAM or its affiliates. Although the information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable, no liability for any error or omission is accepted by DeAM or its affiliates or any of their directors or employees. The information and opinions contained may also change. All third party data (such as MSCI, S&P & Bloomberg) are copyrighted by and proprietary to the provider. DWS is the brand name of mutual funds offered by Deutsche Asset Management (Asia) Limited (Reg. No. 198701485N).
46