POLITECNICO DI TORINO

ESERCITAZIONI DI LOGISTICA

Laurea in Ingegneria Logistica e della Produzione

Corso di Logistica e di Distribuzione 1

Docente: Prof. Ing. Giulio Zotteri

Tutore: Ing. Giuliano Scapaccino

A.A. 2007/2008

VERSIONE 3

Problem 16.32 - Number of Airline Tickets Sold by a Local Travel Agency

Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Year
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1995
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1996
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1997
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998
1998

Tickets
605
647
636
612
714
765
698
615
588
685
711
664
630
696
670
671
724
787
724
651
589
697
750
705
664
704
691
672
753
787
751
695
643
724
803
705
720
757
707
692
828
827
763
710
673
793
852
710

Part (e): As the time series chart indicates, there is

seasonality, so that Winters' model does a significantly
better job than Holt's and simple models. However, it
doesn't help much in any of the models to optimize over the
smoothing constants - only marginal improvements are
made

Month

Ju
Se
ly
pt
em
be
N
r
ov
em
be
r

M
ay

Ju
Se
ly
pt
em
be
N
r
ov
em
be
r
Ja
nu
ar
y
M
ar
ch

M
ay

Ju
Se
ly
pt
em
be
N
r
ov
em
be
r
Ja
nu
ar
y
M
ar
ch

M
ay

Ju
Se
ly
pt
em
be
N
r
ov
em
be
r
Ja
nu
ar
y
M
ar
ch

900

M
ay

Ja
nu
ar
y
M
ar
ch

Tickets

Time series plot of Tickets

There is some upward trend and

some seasonality, so Winters' method
looks like a good choice.

850

800

750

700

650

600

550

Forecasting results for Tickets

Simple exponential smoothing
Smoothing constant(s)
Level

0,100 alfa

Estimation period
MAE
RMSE
MAPE

49,3871
61,2139
6,79%

Date
gen-95
feb-95
mar-95
apr-95
mag-95
giu-95
lug-95
ago-95
set-95
ott-95
nov-95
dic-95
gen-96
feb-96
mar-96
apr-96
mag-96
giu-96
lug-96
ago-96
set-96
ott-96
nov-96
dic-96
gen-97
feb-97
mar-97
apr-97
mag-97
giu-97
lug-97
ago-97
set-97
ott-97
nov-97
dic-97
gen-98
feb-98
mar-98
apr-98
mag-98
giu-98
lug-98
ago-98
set-98
ott-98
nov-98
dic-98
gen-99
feb-99
mar-99
apr-99
mag-99
giu-99
lug-99
ago-99
set-99
ott-99
nov-99
dic-99

Observation
605,000
647,000
636,000
612,000
714,000
765,000
698,000
615,000
588,000
685,000
711,000
664,000
630,000
696,000
670,000
671,000
724,000
787,000
724,000
651,000
589,000
697,000
750,000
705,000
664,000
704,000
691,000
672,000
753,000
787,000
751,000
695,000
643,000
724,000
803,000
705,000
720,000
757,000
707,000
692,000
828,000
827,000
763,000
710,000
673,000
793,000
852,000
710,000

SmLevel
605,000
609,200
611,880
611,892
622,103
636,393
642,553
639,798
634,618
639,656
646,791
648,512
646,660
651,594
653,435
655,191
662,072
674,565
679,509
676,658
667,892
670,803
678,722
681,350
679,615
682,054
682,948
681,853
688,968
698,771
703,994
703,095
697,085
699,777
710,099
709,589
710,630
715,267
714,441
712,196
723,777
734,099
736,989
734,290
728,161
734,645
746,381
742,743

Forecast

Error

605,000
609,200
611,880
611,892
622,103
636,393
642,553
639,798
634,618
639,656
646,791
648,512
646,660
651,594
653,435
655,191
662,072
674,565
679,509
676,658
667,892
670,803
678,722
681,350
679,615
682,054
682,948
681,853
688,968
698,771
703,994
703,095
697,085
699,777
710,099
709,589
710,630
715,267
714,441
712,196
723,777
734,099
736,989
734,290
728,161
734,645
746,381
742,743
742,743
742,743
742,743
742,743
742,743
742,743
742,743
742,743
742,743
742,743
742,743

42,000
26,800
0,120
102,108
142,897
61,607
-27,553
-51,798
50,382
71,344
17,209
-18,512
49,340
18,406
17,565
68,809
124,928
49,435
-28,509
-87,658
29,108
79,197
26,278
-17,350
24,385
8,946
-10,948
71,147
98,032
52,229
-8,994
-60,095
26,915
103,223
-5,099
10,411
46,370
-8,267
-22,441
115,804
103,223
28,901
-26,989
-61,290
64,839
117,355
-36,381

ge
n9
m 5
ar
m 95
ag
-9
lu 5
g9
se 5
t-9
no 5
v9
ge 5
n9
m 6
ar
m 96
ag
-9
lu 6
g9
se 6
t-9
no 6
v9
ge 6
n9
m 7
ar
m 97
ag
-9
lu 7
g9
se 7
t-9
no 7
v9
ge 7
n9
m 8
ar
m 98
ag
-9
lu 8
g9
se 8
t-9
no 8
v9
ge 8
n9
m 9
ar
m 99
ag
-9
lu 9
g9
se 9
t-9
no 9
v99

Time series of Tickets with forecasts superimposed

900

850

800

750
Observation
Forecast

700

650

600

550

Date

Forecasting results for Tickets

Simple exponential smoothing
Smoothing constant(s)
Level

0,200

Estimation period
MAE
RMSE
MAPE

47,4880
58,4296
6,62%

These summary measures are

marginally better than in part (b),
but nothing much to get excited

Date
gen-95
feb-95
mar-95
apr-95
mag-95
giu-95
lug-95
ago-95
set-95
ott-95
nov-95
dic-95
gen-96
feb-96
mar-96
apr-96
mag-96
giu-96
lug-96
ago-96
set-96
ott-96
nov-96
dic-96
gen-97
feb-97
mar-97
apr-97
mag-97
giu-97
lug-97
ago-97
set-97
ott-97
nov-97
dic-97
gen-98
feb-98
mar-98
apr-98
mag-98
giu-98
lug-98
ago-98
set-98
ott-98
nov-98
dic-98
gen-99
feb-99
mar-99
apr-99
mag-99
giu-99
lug-99
ago-99
set-99
ott-99
nov-99
dic-99

Observation
605,000
647,000
636,000
612,000
714,000
765,000
698,000
615,000
588,000
685,000
711,000
664,000
630,000
696,000
670,000
671,000
724,000
787,000
724,000
651,000
589,000
697,000
750,000
705,000
664,000
704,000
691,000
672,000
753,000
787,000
751,000
695,000
643,000
724,000
803,000
705,000
720,000
757,000
707,000
692,000
828,000
827,000
763,000
710,000
673,000
793,000
852,000
710,000

SmLevel
605,000
613,408
617,931
616,743
636,213
661,995
669,202
658,352
644,268
652,422
664,149
664,119
657,289
665,038
666,032
667,026
678,432
700,166
704,937
694,140
673,092
677,878
692,316
694,855
688,678
691,746
691,596
687,673
700,751
718,017
724,620
718,690
703,538
707,634
726,725
722,376
721,900
728,927
724,537
718,024
740,040
757,448
758,560
748,839
733,657
745,536
766,849
755,469

Forecast

Error

605,000
613,408
617,931
616,743
636,213
661,995
669,202
658,352
644,268
652,422
664,149
664,119
657,289
665,038
666,032
667,026
678,432
700,166
704,937
694,140
673,092
677,878
692,316
694,855
688,678
691,746
691,596
687,673
700,751
718,017
724,620
718,690
703,538
707,634
726,725
722,376
721,900
728,927
724,537
718,024
740,040
757,448
758,560
748,839
733,657
745,536
766,849
755,469
755,469
755,469
755,469
755,469
755,469
755,469
755,469
755,469
755,469
755,469
755,469

42,000
22,592
-5,931
97,257
128,787
36,005
-54,202
-70,352
40,732
58,578
-0,149
-34,119
38,711
4,962
4,968
56,974
108,568
23,834
-53,937
-105,140
23,908
72,122
12,684
-30,855
15,322
-0,746
-19,596
65,327
86,249
32,983
-29,620
-75,690
20,462
95,366
-21,725
-2,376
35,100
-21,927
-32,537
109,976
86,960
5,552
-48,560
-75,839
59,343
106,464
-56,849

ge
n9
m 5
ar
m 95
ag
-9
lu 5
g9
se 5
t-9
no 5
v9
ge 5
n9
m 6
ar
m 96
ag
-9
lu 6
g9
se 6
t-9
no 6
v9
ge 6
n9
m 7
ar
m 97
ag
-9
lu 7
g9
se 7
t-9
no 7
v9
ge 7
n9
m 8
ar
m 98
ag
-9
lu 8
g9
se 8
t-9
no 8
v9
ge 8
n9
m 9
ar
m 99
ag
-9
lu 9
g9
se 9
t-9
no 9
v99

Time series of Tickets with forecasts superimposed

900

850

800

750
Observation
Forecast

700

650

600

550

Date

Forecasting results for Tickets

Holt's exponential smoothing
Smoothing constant(s)
Level
Trend

0,100
0,100

Estimation period
MAE
RMSE
MAPE

46,3444
56,1873
6,57%

Date
gen-95
feb-95
mar-95
apr-95
mag-95
giu-95
lug-95
ago-95
set-95
ott-95
nov-95
dic-95
gen-96
feb-96
mar-96
apr-96
mag-96
giu-96
lug-96
ago-96
set-96
ott-96
nov-96
dic-96
gen-97
feb-97
mar-97
apr-97
mag-97
giu-97
lug-97
ago-97
set-97
ott-97
nov-97
dic-97
gen-98
feb-98
mar-98
apr-98
mag-98
giu-98
lug-98
ago-98
set-98
ott-98
nov-98
dic-98
gen-99
feb-99
mar-99
apr-99
mag-99
giu-99
lug-99
ago-99
set-99
ott-99
nov-99
dic-99

Observation
605,000
647,000
636,000
612,000
714,000
765,000
698,000
615,000
588,000
685,000
711,000
664,000
630,000
696,000
670,000
671,000
724,000
787,000
724,000
651,000
589,000
697,000
750,000
705,000
664,000
704,000
691,000
672,000
753,000
787,000
751,000
695,000
643,000
724,000
803,000
705,000
720,000
757,000
707,000
692,000
828,000
827,000
763,000
710,000
673,000
793,000
852,000
710,000

SmLevel
605,000
611,169
615,979
618,108
630,164
646,952
656,542
657,287
654,835
661,660
670,636
674,418
674,317
680,384
683,399
686,080
693,641
707,050
713,618
712,332
704,362
706,835
714,263
716,805
714,875
716,629
716,782
714,761
720,615
729,607
734,674
733,798
727,421
728,938
738,153
737,296
737,701
741,589
740,242
737,197
747,605
757,676
761,034
758,775
752,554
758,160
769,453
766,243

SmTrend
2,188
2,586
2,808
2,740
3,672
4,983
5,444
4,974
4,232
4,491
4,939
4,824
4,331
4,505
4,356
4,188
4,526
5,414
5,529
4,848
3,566
3,457
3,854
3,723
3,157
3,017
2,731
2,255
2,615
3,253
3,434
3,003
2,065
2,010
2,731
2,372
2,175
2,347
1,977
1,475
2,368
3,139
3,161
2,619
1,735
2,122
3,039
2,414

Forecast

Error

607,188
613,754
618,787
620,849
633,835
651,935
661,986
662,261
659,067
666,151
675,575
679,241
678,648
684,888
687,755
690,268
698,167
712,464
719,147
717,180
707,928
710,292
718,117
720,528
718,032
719,646
719,512
717,016
723,230
732,860
738,108
736,801
729,486
730,948
740,884
739,668
739,877
743,936
742,219
738,673
749,974
760,815
764,194
761,393
754,289
760,281
772,492
768,657
771,071
773,485
775,899
778,313
780,727
783,141
785,555
787,969
790,383
792,797
795,211

39,813
22,246
-6,787
93,151
131,165
46,065
-46,986
-74,261
25,933
44,849
-11,575
-49,241
17,352
-14,888
-16,755
33,732
88,833
11,536
-68,147
-128,180
-10,928
39,708
-13,117
-56,528
-14,032
-28,646
-47,512
35,984
63,770
18,140
-43,108
-93,801
-5,486
72,052
-35,884
-19,668
17,123
-36,936
-50,219
89,327
77,026
2,185
-54,194
-88,393
38,711
91,719
-62,492

Esercizio con aggiunta del trend

inizializzazione del trend senza la retta di regressione

ge
n9
m 5
ar
m 95
ag
-9
lu 5
g9
se 5
t-9
no 5
v9
ge 5
n9
m 6
ar
m 96
ag
-9
lu 6
g9
se 6
t-9
no 6
v9
ge 6
n9
m 7
ar
m 97
ag
-9
lu 7
g9
se 7
t-9
no 7
v9
ge 7
n9
m 8
ar
m 98
ag
-9
lu 8
g9
se 8
t-9
no 8
v9
ge 8
n9
m 9
ar
m 99
ag
-9
lu 9
g9
se 9
t-9
no 9
v99

Time series of Tickets with forecasts superimposed

900

850

800

750
Observation
Forecast

700

650

600

550

Date

Forecasting results for Tickets

Holt's exponential smoothing
Smoothing constant(s)
Level
Trend

0,077
0,028

Estimation period
MAE
RMSE
MAPE

44,9023
55,4748
6,31%

Again, this is only a marginal

improvement over the nonoptimized Holt's model, and it's only
a little better than the simple
exponential smoothing models.

Date
gen-95
feb-95
mar-95
apr-95
mag-95
giu-95
lug-95
ago-95
set-95
ott-95
nov-95
dic-95
gen-96
feb-96
mar-96
apr-96
mag-96
giu-96
lug-96
ago-96
set-96
ott-96
nov-96
dic-96
gen-97
feb-97
mar-97
apr-97
mag-97
giu-97
lug-97
ago-97
set-97
ott-97
nov-97
dic-97
gen-98
feb-98
mar-98
apr-98
mag-98
giu-98
lug-98
ago-98
set-98
ott-98
nov-98
dic-98
gen-99
feb-99
mar-99
apr-99
mag-99
giu-99
lug-99
ago-99
set-99
ott-99
nov-99
dic-99

Observation
605,000
647,000
636,000
612,000
714,000
765,000
698,000
615,000
588,000
685,000
711,000
664,000
630,000
696,000
670,000
671,000
724,000
787,000
724,000
651,000
589,000
697,000
750,000
705,000
664,000
704,000
691,000
672,000
753,000
787,000
751,000
695,000
643,000
724,000
803,000
705,000
720,000
757,000
707,000
692,000
828,000
827,000
763,000
710,000
673,000
793,000
852,000
710,000

SmLevel
605,000
610,234
614,303
616,271
625,883
638,849
645,964
646,294
644,467
650,082
657,330
660,542
660,913
666,241
669,234
672,077
678,755
689,838
695,459
695,125
689,980
693,277
700,385
703,611
703,457
706,291
707,908
707,913
714,038
722,379
727,464
727,925
724,303
726,983
735,496
736,002
737,552
741,777
741,885
740,763
750,030
758,676
761,909
760,841
756,917
762,296
771,843
769,965

SmTrend
2,188
2,272
2,322
2,312
2,514
2,804
2,923
2,851
2,722
2,802
2,925
2,933
2,862
2,930
2,932
2,930
3,033
3,256
3,322
3,221
2,989
2,997
3,111
3,114
3,024
3,019
2,980
2,897
2,987
3,135
3,189
3,114
2,927
2,920
3,075
3,004
2,964
2,999
2,918
2,807
2,986
3,142
3,145
3,028
2,836
2,906
3,090
2,952

Forecast

Error

607,188
612,506
616,625
618,583
628,397
641,653
648,887
649,146
647,189
652,884
660,255
663,474
663,775
669,171
672,166
675,007
681,789
693,095
698,781
698,346
692,969
696,274
703,496
706,726
706,480
709,309
710,888
710,810
717,025
725,514
730,653
731,039
727,230
729,903
738,571
739,006
740,515
744,775
744,803
743,570
753,015
761,818
765,054
763,869
759,752
765,202
774,933
772,917
775,870
778,822
781,774
784,727
787,679
790,632
793,584
796,536
799,489
802,441
805,393

39,813
23,494
-4,625
95,417
136,603
56,347
-33,887
-61,146
37,811
58,116
3,745
-33,474
32,225
0,829
-1,166
48,993
105,211
30,905
-47,781
-109,346
4,031
53,726
1,504
-42,726
-2,480
-18,309
-38,888
42,190
69,975
25,486
-35,653
-88,039
-3,230
73,097
-33,571
-19,006
16,485
-37,775
-52,803
84,430
73,985
1,182
-55,054
-90,869
33,248
86,798
-64,933

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Time series of Tickets with forecasts superimposed

900

850

800

750
Observation
Forecast

700

650

600

550

Date

Forecasting results for Tickets

Winters' exponential smoothing
Smoothing constant(s)
Level
Trend
Seasonality

0,100
0,100
0,100

Estimation period
MAE
RMSE
MAPE

14,3915
17,5676
2,00%

Date
gen-95
feb-95
mar-95
apr-95
mag-95
giu-95
lug-95
ago-95
set-95
ott-95
nov-95
dic-95
gen-96
feb-96
mar-96
apr-96
mag-96
giu-96
lug-96
ago-96
set-96
ott-96
nov-96
dic-96
gen-97
feb-97
mar-97
apr-97
mag-97
giu-97
lug-97
ago-97
set-97
ott-97
nov-97
dic-97
gen-98
feb-98
mar-98
apr-98
mag-98
giu-98
lug-98
ago-98
set-98
ott-98
nov-98
dic-98
gen-99
feb-99
mar-99
apr-99
mag-99
giu-99
lug-99
ago-99
set-99
ott-99
nov-99
dic-99

Observation
605,000
647,000
636,000
612,000
714,000
765,000
698,000
615,000
588,000
685,000
711,000
664,000
630,000
696,000
670,000
671,000
724,000
787,000
724,000
651,000
589,000
697,000
750,000
705,000
664,000
704,000
691,000
672,000
753,000
787,000
751,000
695,000
643,000
724,000
803,000
705,000
720,000
757,000
707,000
692,000
828,000
827,000
763,000
710,000
673,000
793,000
852,000
710,000

SmLevel
636,231
637,914
641,229
643,117
647,160
653,057
656,586
658,614
662,573
666,894
668,889
672,060
673,640
677,223
680,858
685,820
687,357
691,546
694,087
696,585
697,082
698,997
701,275
705,173
707,047
707,945
710,298
711,854
712,984
713,880
715,955
720,185
724,174
725,934
730,291
731,182
736,177
739,586
740,697
741,520
746,847
748,472
748,682
751,269
755,501
761,135
766,765
765,160

SmTrend
1,796
1,784
1,938
1,933
2,144
2,519
2,620
2,561
2,701
2,863
2,776
2,815
2,692
2,781
2,866
3,076
2,922
3,049
2,998
2,948
2,703
2,624
2,589
2,720
2,636
2,462
2,451
2,362
2,238
2,104
2,101
2,314
2,482
2,409
2,604
2,433
2,689
2,761
2,596
2,419
2,710
2,601
2,362
2,385
2,569
2,876
3,151
2,676

SmSeason
0,951
1,016
0,973
0,952
1,075
1,120
1,050
0,941
0,873
1,007
1,074
0,983
0,949
1,017
0,974
0,955
1,073
1,121
1,049
0,940
0,870
1,006
1,074
0,985
0,948
1,015
0,974
0,954
1,071
1,120
1,049
0,943
0,872
1,005
1,076
0,983
0,951
1,016
0,972
0,952
1,075
1,118
1,046
0,943
0,874
1,009
1,080
0,977

Forecast

Error

648,146
621,136
612,469
691,378
723,196
687,414
620,572
575,823
668,708
720,335
660,113
641,748
686,950
661,691
651,046
740,540
772,811
729,336
655,701
610,387
704,937
753,724
692,125
672,034
721,678
692,055
680,550
766,211
802,057
751,299
674,991
628,432
731,262
782,083
721,876
695,702
749,694
723,072
708,911
796,858
839,137
788,091
707,878
656,894
762,194
822,351
756,741
730,436
782,488
751,601
738,382
836,840
873,438
820,160
741,558
689,427
799,109
858,033
779,241

-1,146
14,864
-0,469
22,622
41,804
10,586
-5,572
12,177
16,292
-9,335
3,887
-11,748
9,050
8,309
19,954
-16,540
14,189
-5,336
-4,701
-21,387
-7,937
-3,724
12,875
-8,034
-17,678
-1,055
-8,550
-13,211
-15,057
-0,299
20,009
14,568
-7,262
20,917
-16,876
24,298
7,306
-16,072
-16,911
31,142
-12,137
-25,091
2,122
16,106
30,806
29,649
-46,741

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Time series of Tickets with forecasts superimposed

900

850

800

750
Observation
Forecast

700

650

600

550

Date

Forecasting results for Tickets

Winters' exponential smoothing
Smoothing constant(s)
Level
Trend
Seasonality

0,114
0,061
0,000

Estimation period
MAE
RMSE
MAPE

13,8179
17,1263
1,93%

Slightly better than the Winters' non

optimized model, but much better
than Holt's and simple models.

Date
gen-95
feb-95
mar-95
apr-95
mag-95
giu-95
lug-95
ago-95
set-95
ott-95
nov-95
dic-95
gen-96
feb-96
mar-96
apr-96
mag-96
giu-96
lug-96
ago-96
set-96
ott-96
nov-96
dic-96
gen-97
feb-97
mar-97
apr-97
mag-97
giu-97
lug-97
ago-97
set-97
ott-97
nov-97
dic-97
gen-98
feb-98
mar-98
apr-98
mag-98
giu-98
lug-98
ago-98
set-98
ott-98
nov-98
dic-98
gen-99
feb-99
mar-99
apr-99
mag-99
giu-99
lug-99
ago-99
set-99
ott-99
nov-99
dic-99

Observation
605,000
647,000
636,000
612,000
714,000
765,000
698,000
615,000
588,000
685,000
711,000
664,000
630,000
696,000
670,000
671,000
724,000
787,000
724,000
651,000
589,000
697,000
750,000
705,000
664,000
704,000
691,000
672,000
753,000
787,000
751,000
695,000
643,000
724,000
803,000
705,000
720,000
757,000
707,000
692,000
828,000
827,000
763,000
710,000
673,000
793,000
852,000
710,000

SmLevel
636,231
637,898
641,429
643,249
647,529
653,803
657,185
658,832
662,741
667,011
668,574
671,562
672,748
676,300
680,066
685,133
686,444
691,068
693,440
695,642
695,833
697,815
699,986
704,167
705,795
706,587
709,315
711,070
712,232
713,654
715,961
720,515
724,679
726,413
730,903
731,660
736,763
740,063
741,083
741,734
747,419
749,218
749,077
751,823
756,384
762,378
768,244
765,675

SmTrend
1,796
1,788
1,894
1,889
2,035
2,293
2,359
2,316
2,412
2,525
2,467
2,499
2,419
2,488
2,565
2,718
2,632
2,753
2,730
2,698
2,545
2,511
2,490
2,593
2,535
2,429
2,447
2,405
2,329
2,274
2,276
2,415
2,521
2,473
2,596
2,484
2,643
2,683
2,582
2,465
2,660
2,608
2,441
2,459
2,587
2,794
2,981
2,644

SmSeason
0,951
1,016
0,971
0,952
1,072
1,114
1,049
0,941
0,871
1,005
1,076
0,983
0,951
1,016
0,971
0,952
1,072
1,114
1,049
0,941
0,871
1,005
1,076
0,983
0,951
1,016
0,971
0,952
1,072
1,114
1,049
0,941
0,871
1,005
1,076
0,983
0,951
1,016
0,971
0,952
1,072
1,114
1,049
0,941
0,871
1,005
1,076
0,983

Forecast

Error

648,146
621,124
612,618
691,473
723,485
687,959
620,890
575,800
668,588
720,097
659,499
640,973
685,875
659,091
650,050
737,253
767,495
727,517
655,370
608,191
701,984
753,212
690,395
672,067
719,565
688,442
677,791
764,718
795,879
750,697
676,144
629,607
730,954
783,929
720,883
698,107
751,134
721,194
708,171
797,647
835,440
788,338
707,474
656,912
762,890
822,956
757,961
730,604
783,190
751,158
739,200
834,834
870,477
822,264
740,711
687,555
796,201
854,772
783,684

-1,146
14,876
-0,618
22,527
41,515
10,041
-5,890
12,200
16,412
-9,097
4,501
-10,973
10,125
10,909
20,950
-13,253
19,505
-3,517
-4,370
-19,191
-4,984
-3,212
14,605
-8,067
-15,565
2,558
-5,791
-11,718
-8,879
0,303
18,856
13,393
-6,954
19,071
-15,883
21,893
5,866
-14,194
-16,171
30,353
-8,440
-25,338
2,526
16,088
30,110
29,044
-47,961

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Time series of Tickets with forecasts superimposed

900

850

800

750
Observation
Forecast

700

650

600

550

Date