r~: ,......

J U L 1 9 Z ~ 1 ~ : i r ~ L 1 0 I 1

1L10I

bId ::::".: 1 ..::;: I u

1 ::i.....C i D..O 1

r. t;.h..)

6C-(/I(-~f
SOILS AND FOUNDATIOJlS' VoL 18, No. 4, Dec, 197
. Japanese Soety of. Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engn~~Dg

. OBSERVATIONAL'

PROCEDURE OF
Ii

SETTLEMENT. PREDICTION
i.

AxIRA AsAOKA *

The use of anal~tical solution of consolidation equation for settlement prediction is not always effective si,ce such conditions as an initial distribution of excess pore water pres-

I ABSC1 .

sure, drain lenKt,i final vertical strain of soils and the coeffcient of consolidation are
130metimes quite ulceain in practical engieering problems. For this reason, an observational settlemen~ prediction is freshly presnted. First, the linea ordinary differential

equation derived i~ demonstrated to give a settlement-time relationship. After that, by

using the differeqce form of the equation (an autoregresive equation), observational

procedure of settlebient prediction is proposed. Two kinds of practical methods are pres-

I ented. One is a ~raphical method. the advantage of which is its simplicity_ The' other is the method bas~d on the Bayesian inference of the non stationary stochastic process, which can give a predictive probability'distribution of future settlement and then also pro~
vide a preliminar~i theory for reliability-based design of settlement problems. The propose m thodology is demonstrated to be also applicable for some other special
problem 'ineludin settlement due to drainage from :sand piles. .
Key words: cohtlive soil, computer application. consolidation, graphical analysis, .!

IGC: . E2 . .

ure~ent, settlement, statistical analysis

INTRODUCTION

The one-imenslnal consoldation theory is an important contribution of soil mechanics

to prctical foundaion engineering. Settlement' resulting from onHimensional compression .and one-dimensional drainage has been widely recogni~ed to be well explained by this theory. However, for the theory to be als effective in the case of future settlement pre. diction, some other engineering judgement. has ben additionally indispensable.
It is known thaj a consolidation equation. a partial differntial equation of paabolic

type, produces a nique solution when a coeffcient of the equation and the initial and

boundary conditio s have been prior determined. This is common knowledge so that the practical applicatiohs of this equ~tion have exhibited a tendency to utiliz only this characteristic of the so.ution. In fact. according to conven1onalsettlement analysis, condi.

tions such as an i~itial distribution of excess pore "rater presur, .' drain length, finai
vericai strain of sOils. and the coeffcient of conslidation were naturlly ~nsider to be
given in advance d the analysis It is, however. als commonly accepted that the .eti~

mation of these cobditions usually goe with a high degIee of uncertainty_ Ther.efore. the
i

* Research Associat~ Depatment of -Civil Engineering, Kyoto' Univrsity, Sakyo-ku. Kyot

Written discussion, on this paper should be submitte bef-ore October I, 1979.
! I !

I.. . .: .

JUL 19 Z~ i~:~i r~ Lioll lL.i::1

\
I

4:1.. :::: lO.. IV l..tJ~..Ulu..u"

"'~"'" '.
.r.:..~. ... "

::~. .. "

es;' -. . ..0. -~. ':~;-~.~'" ':': d~:"-I- .. ...

ASAO' ~. /

e~gihe~.. working :~n' ~itlehi~~t' pi-edicti~~ is: ~~uaiy . e~peted to have bad some previous

expeience. I

In this paper. a nw idetof settlement prediction is presented, the philosophy of which

is base on "Observational Proce\le." . The trend equation of time series data of settlement is derived nrst from the' ~n~dimenio'nal consolidtltion. equation, afte which the future settlement is predic by using the put obserations. Two kinds of practical meth. ods ar propose. one~. i a graphical method, the advantage of which is its simplicity. The other is the method base on the Bayesian inference of a non stationary stochastic

pr, whic can give a reol';"" proham,y distihutlon of f. uture settlement and then
also provide a preliminary theory for reliabilty-base design of settlement problems.

The propose methodolo~ is demonstrated to be also applicable for some special problems including settlement 1ue to drainage from ::and piles.
; i I

~~ EQATl~OF sn~-:iME~T10N ..

i,
: (

iioship. .i . . .

i" this seon, ,he ori~ar.differ"ti equatin de.. giv.. a _1e,-tim re.
(1)

. is a fundamental equatipn. 'Miksa's equation is adopted. that is

.
!

" "

. . :' .1 in which I t=c~1I

. e(t. z) : vertical strain (volumetric strin),

:t(~O) : time, . I.. . .

z : depth from th'toP of clay stratum and.. .:.

. Cfi ; coeffcient of nslidation. . . . .

~ in Eq. .(1) he upp& do. ~ 'l'epresents time-Iertiation' and the lower .scipt~ :l the , z. Even if the coeffients of b~tA. permiabiUty an~ depth
differentiation with respett~ .

volume compressibilty va from time to time, the Eq. (1) is still efecive when Cfi remains coiitant (Miksa, ;1. 3). ''In,addition; Eq. (1). makes. it ~sy to express; settlement.
For' these reasons Eq. (1) ~s adoptd'instead of Terzghi's eqution.. '. :

j
"f

The solution of Eq. (1) I is expressed here by introducing two" unknown functioll. ot time, T and F, as follows:

~.q. (2) shows tiiat

. '":; ::

'" .

et,%)=T+.l(Lt)+..(Li')+..' 2! 'C" . 4! cv2

.. .. ..' .. ':+.zF +W(l . %8 i)+ ..(L )+... . '.

. 31 ." c.t. I.;' C 5' -""

T;:e(e, :=0).

.( 2) .
. ~ .."'! ".
i (

.' ..

and'

, : .' . '. . '. i. .F=eK(t, 2;:0)..'.' .'". ...... i . . .., '. ' '.
'.~: T~e : ve:tica.l . sti~in ~ ~iI ~q.. (l)~' is'..'originii~'' . ~efin~ i~. a~ ~ul~i~"~ . .s.n~e,,'. ."&ti~( in. ....this

paper, e IS approximately regarded as a. Lagrangean stam" for simpliity. - .The' formula

of settlen.ent p~edicti~~~ b~.. ~~~~ading . ~'.. an: E.?:~erin strin has. ~itea~.y '.1i~ . ~stabii~hed

'by the ~uthor. - he results, . hwev~.. boine a complex nonlinEiar probleJr and: therefore
~~ey ~~e 'b:yond':~h~.s:b~~.i~f '.p~~~~c:r'~PP'!~c~~ii.itY:..'. '. :,' . :~..' .: " '. '. :....: .

The typical two bounde conditions ~re considere next~' ". .' '.' .. ..... . .. .' .

~.~.(ly nrainagcrt'on b~il top': b()t~D:bunaari~ .. . ~(Ti.~:::~C: ~:~~~)

Fig. t::~o:w~. thisbou~8'ry ..~nditio~~ ~~~c~.i:~.,.~i:in~lat:ed...,:s :.:. ..: .'.' '.~ ...!"::'-~':' .'; .'
.,. ....c .' I ". . - _. e((, ..iQ) =,.; !"..t .. ..... .' .. . ." ....~" ...,;, ,.! 3 ).

c r\ ......~, '

JUL 1 ~ ldl~ i ~ : c i r to L 101 IlL i:: I

o i ~O~ 1 ~~ i V 1 ~UwwU . UWV A

11
i i !

PREDICTION lJF. SE,LEMENT

..r,

89

.nee drainaq~ :.,...,f.,-, -..:: ::.:'......:-:... .....

'. top of clay

. " ."
. 11 --t-J bot,om of :~:.:.:.: :::: -: .:.... ~....';!:.:.... clay
fre drainage

,1 :". top of clay

'H. . t .

J bottom of clay

impermable layer
Fig. 2. Upwar drainage .

til'. .1. Drai~age from top nd

bottom liundaries

. e(t, z~'H) ~~ : constant (4)

~here' H. represen . the thickness of clay: stratum and both i 'and~. the unknown boundar values respecti ely.

. - ubsthutin of . (3) into Eq. (2) gives

which shows that lPpe half of the solution (2) becomes constant. Then. from. Eq. (4), we have the lineflJ ordinary differential equation of ~nknown ~ with constant coeffcients,

. .I'I '. . .', T=E: con~tant

2) .. (OVle. ~ D,(4\~~'E)
~(t, .,i=.0) =! : constant

(5)

F+..(HZ p)+.-(H: H 3! Cu 51 Cv F)+....= ~- ()

I (2) Upward d.ainage (Fig.

. Whe~ the bottom a the clay layer is. impermiale. boundary conditions are given as follows:

(7)

6(t. %=H) =0 Since Eq. (7) is t e same as Eq. (3), it also follows that
"

(8 ) (9 )

T=i :-constat
Then" calculating q. (8) from the solution (2),' we' get
c

." ., F+- .' '1 (P'.'\." 1 -1 )' ,. '. --F '+'- (H' +...=0' .', (10)
which is also a linear ordinary differential equation of F with constant coffcint..
....Now;.:foI' any'Wundary "condition, the 'settlement 'of clay stratum can be" expresse as
. .._.. ~.,' ~ '.' I' ::. . 2!. ...u ' .1.. 4!. . cvs ..... "'.. ..' .' .

\.. ". I - pet) :;.)0' t(t. t)d% (11)

in whi p(.) r+nts the settlement at tUne;.. Subsitutig the sOlution (2) into Eq.

Icl1 .
I....
i I

(l~)l ',since T=f: onstant, we have .

:::. .' .-: .;' ....IP('t):~fH+..(H!F)+irH'F)+~(H8 F)+.... ,-, (12) -; ~h~' se~u~~tial Jiff~rentiatjon of 'Eq. '.(12) .'wit~ respect .to t: we get. the' fon~~ing.set of

_ r. . . _ . . ...21 . 4fc ,. .' 61 . c Z ..' -'. .

eq~~~i~ns: I '. \. . : .., '. p=_(HiF)+ -F -F . - I 1 . . -MBA Cu 61 (R' ...) 1 1 21 41 ,,) 1+-c.,i +...
".- -. ... ';....:.:..
~.. _ a.J

p=~(HiF)+~ -:F.' 6;1' -: "F +.:.... . .'.:." ~. .. . 21 41 Cu "_.': ,..' +" cui, .:;;. ..: ':~'.'; '.: ::. .,

( . ~- ~

. : .eft). "j . , . . '; . '1(:' 1. -.:. i'C'R:' (ll~l))' :"l(' -R: ""+iQ)' '. ".1.' ; , ". "'. ,JI3)

.. .". . .. . . . . ..

JUL 1S 25 15:22 F~ Cl~ll lClol

:..
\ i I

b 1 ~ ~~~ 1 O~ tv ~u~~u. u~u &

-,.~
. ';;~'~-':1 .. ~

90

ASAOJt
I

Cmparing the set or equations. Eq. ,(12) and Eqs. (13). with Eq.-(6) or Eq. .(10), the

unknown functionF fn be.eliminated. When Eq. ,6) is the case,' it follows that

. i P+3T~v P \ liH" P ..) ! H l) 4 ~14 aJ ~JHz )+m c.ll +...=~e+V '\.v-~e

- aC

Similarly. from Eq. (0), we get

P+ IjH2 \+ 4T c. 1J.!)+...=Iie 2f c., )

consolidation

D'n ~ (14b)

. : .' . 'Df'l.,v.Co.J

Eqs. (14) give a settl ment-time relationship under the condition in which an external 7
'load is nstant. that is, Eqs. (14) are the reults derived from the station-

er~l..

ary boundary conditio. s, Eq. -(3) and Eq. (7).

It is easily ascertaiii that Eqs. (14) are absl1ltely stable for t_oo, that is. all the

eigenvalues of thes ebuations are negative rel number which ar dilIerent. from each
other. In succeeding Isections. however. we discuss the practical problems in wh~ch Cu. H and boundary conditio~s of drainage and load are entirely unceain. Therefore, the expres-

sions of the solutions p Eqs. (14) by the use of prominent eigenvalues and boundry valuesp this is common in c0Itventional analysis, ca not be efficient for settlement prediction.

It should. be noted tlat the higher orer differential terms of Eqs. (14) are negligibly
s.mall. Then, the foiOWing n-th order approximation equation is adopted as a maste
equation of settlemen time relationship: . ..
wqere elf Ci, ..., Cn aiil Care regarded

. P+CiP+CtP+..'+CnP=C (15)

(ft)

as unknown constants. It wil be showD later that

Eq. (15) is also appli~bie for some other settlement prediction problems. Introducing
discrete time as I

\ t3=.4t.j, j=O;l, 2, ... 1

(16)

I .dt: constant, . f
Eq. (15) can be reducbd to a difference form,
P+'J . . I PJ= i

I - n (3I1P3-11

. ~17)

in which p, denotes p(tj). the sett1ement at the. time t=tj and the eoefIicients 90 and 8s

tional settement prediPtion. . . .

. I uon, I
where

(s=1, 2. .... n) are uiikown plant parameters. Eq. (17) wil give us an idea of observaFor the convenience! sake of succing discussions, the fit order approximation equa-

;" "".",ned he - It initia condtion 'i. +. . C..;l=.....C.,_ -rl-~' "D ~ ~ ~.in which the time. i~o, should be taken at the time after loading works sinc Eqs. (14)

p(t~Ql:;p. ~..e (19)

i

have been derived frof the station houndar codition wh: do not.. from time
to time. When this the ca. Eq. (18) can be easily solved as .

j P~t)~Pf-(Pf-~O)exr(- :J' . -(20)

\ PI:=C,
! : PJ=o+iPJ-i
I I

th final settlement. spinetimes refer to as the stable "State of p. -On the other hand.
the fist order differenfe equation ~ expressed 'as '.' .

(21)

\'" jvr-u. -~. Sel -iS \,,"eo' ,,. M

~ yt-l~

I i

J U L 1 9 2J 5 15: 22 r ~ L 1 ~ I IlL 1 :: I

F. \

01.. ::;:.. 1 "'0.. i V

, ..U..-'U I ....'- ""

PREOJCTION OF SETTLEME1'

91

I
r

The coeffcients. .~a and Pl. have the following values. i

. Substituting the stable. iitate,

(22)

I Pj=Pj-I=PI,
80
p= l-i .

into Eq. (21). wJ obtain

-7 ~'c ~\~.

. "23)

Furthermore, by \the recursive operation with respect to j, Eq. (2~) yields

(24).
which can be coipate with Eq. (20). From this. it follows that .

. I.. PJ~ l~i.-ll~i.. - ~.l (P.)J ...

~Pi= - '"
ent of load.

.de - d. . c, 2c f .
GRAHICAL ~ETTEMENT PREDICTION

(25)

t = - H6cr..4t : the case case topupwsr drainage =:- H: 4t : the of both 0 and bottom drainage'.

(26)

which suggests t at Pi doe not depend on the boundary values, f and ~; 81 is independ-

t
~

We first exami e the effectiveness of the first order approximation equation. Assume that we have had 71+1 settlement bservations. (Po. Pu .'., p".) generated by a constant external load. U~ing these observations we can plot 71 points, (Pii. P&-l) for k=l, 2, .... ". on the (PJ. PJ-I) co-ordinate. From this, we can visually see whether all these points lie on a straight linel as Eq. (21) suggests or not. Figs. 3 and Fig. 4 show the actual results
obtained from th~ settlement observations of extensive reclaimed lands in Japan. The da.ta

for Figs. 3 are from the reclaimed land at Kobe Port. Fig. 4 is the rearranged result from the data published by Aboshi (1969). In every.Ctse of these figure, settlement was considered to be \ resulting from' one-dimensional conslidation. Through these figures.
~~ o i: .ri ..

1 I .'.
I

~i:

Ii-

.i 0 ii...

a.~

~~ - -+----- r--------------------II l\ ' t-1 1968\169 '70 '71 '72 '73 l74 '7$ '76 . '77 '.7S
& r:

6 +2 6 12 6 12 6 12 6 12 \5 12 6 12 .6 12 G 12 6 12 6 12

E
11)

o
cie

I.
i

.. io

+I

t:

Gl

.+I

. t 20' C/ .
l"
30
Fig. 3.(a) Settlement observations of the recaimed laud at Kobe Port

.-;t ~~

,J U L. .I.. ~ ~ LJ -' .l... Co '- . ., '-.... I.. .. '- .. .. I

u.. W ....W .. W.... I V .. ~U..~U I U..V'"

''''~

I . Ul,

.. \'-y

92 .. ASAOKA
.,

:. 30~
i

..

Kobe Port ~ 0.1

g u
..

200
..

J7

.."

J-?

300
lCobe
'" 200
Port: ''No. 2

.~/
..;-

./

CC

' if
. , i
I i

ij

I .,,-;"'

.';'

.v

et
100
. ,

100
..
o

. ,,

"

/ ,. .l'
.

..

\..
I

. ./ /
o

:/.'/ / ..-

..y

. .'/../ ..~

.."/

.~-; .

i,,"
100

Pkrl'.. I
I

200

30 o

1//

100 200
Pk-i, em

300

300

i
1 1

Kobe port: No.3

i . .! ,

. Ii

i
1

200

.1. .

e u
~

. Q.~
I . ioo
......

I.. '.

.
o

..

...../ / ., ...../ .

. . '.11~

.. /' ."/ V

...../

../

. ...."

.:~

:l

~."

//
. '

/'/.

1,,/

....... - ..... .. Fig. 3.(b) pj~pj-i relationship , .:

.ioa Pk-1, em ,.' .. 200 300

a time iiitrval~ '.dt wl taken to be 3 .nl~iiths (9i-92 days).' '.. . .

As shown .in the figures, -the fit order difference. equation, Eq. (21),., gives a good ntting to the observations, which enables us to predict future settlement by graphical meth-

i.' ." .

od. This procur iJ ilustrated in Fig. 5, . Since the rough estimates of. . and Pi
are Biven by the inter~Pt and the slope of a ntted straight line,. it is possibl~ to predict
settlement of anY f,i.tur~ time, j, by using Eq. (24), Moreover, the intercepting:.point of this line with the 45-1 ne represents the final settlement, because Pr is Biven by Pj'~PJ-i.

If necessary, the unkn wn coefcient of time factor.. co'/H2, ciin be easily calc"lated. back.

ward by Eq. ~25) or (~). .. . :.

In:the case of multi-staged loading, the straight line, Pj=o+(JIPJ-i, wil be moved up
as is ;iw-slIo~~'.u; Fig\ S., wh~iid~h~ ~t~iement is r~iiivelY .smail ~~~pare.d to the:' thick-

nes :of clay layer, the ~hifted hne becomes almost parallel to the initial line. because .pi

cons~lidatio:a, Cir ! .,.; :

than strictness

is d~texmined not from !the exteral load but from the thickness. H and the ceffcient of

Tlii graphical mthir-~qt'useful in' ittiats . in .. w liich "siiplity-s-m~':vah1abie

i . :but .fQI~wings ai. noteworthy 0 .. ~

I i

\ i i

~~ .f'. I

JUL 19 2:05 15: 22 r~ C 1 ~ I IlL 1 0 I

old ~~d 1 ..::~ i U 1 ::~~~C i C..O 1

. . IU..

~~

- ':'.

PiiDICTION"OF .SBTTLJ4ENT

93

, ;

I i

.J

lI

S
1.0
i

/
.
.

-!- 1.6 i:~ 8.5

t: ~

Durat.~on, year
i

! l~ II , .1 !:

.1
. i

150

.' ;

.
.

~ i, Ql
m .. . .i
+I

.. llOO

..

..

..

~r
~oo
I i

...

i:

.. . .. .

:wo

\ i

18Q
I . !

i:
I i

~
~
I

160

.140
I

120/

// /

// /

// /
ieo
..Rk-1' em

200

I 140 160
I

Fr~ . 4. Settlement observations at Shin~Ube thermoelectrie

power statioii(after Aboshi (1969))
.1 1 i I I

( 1 ) To obtain Po, we are generally 'compelled to extrapolate the fitted line to the (J1i-i
=0 a.xis. So, if t~e banking period is so lopg an then Po becomes so large, the extra-

polation should be ,performed very caefully_ . . .

(2) The accura~y of the graphical method depends .mainly on a time inteal,. e..

..(

:1
:I
~ ::11

The longer At beccyes, the higher the acc~racy is.. For ~his purpose, the reanangement
of obsevations is s9metiines recommended. . If.. as' an example, '\e observe settlement

ever week and ,de \ is taken to be 10 weeks, then, letting p(kJ denote the setlement' 'of the'.k-th week, we have the following iO..time-series of observations, that is;
I I i 1 I ,

"

;. "

:,
:'1 'i111

JUL 19 2~ l~:~ r~ Lloll lLlol

\

b 1.. ::::..

1 ..::~ i u 1 O~....O i o~o 1

I ... u

."" .,.,..al
'. . '~~:-'r

94

p~ ./. \ ~/\ \
\

ASAOU

i "~7~";l final

I l I I i l

Y// , I I
.' /r

......'7' r""g ...! ....

addi tional fi1i . //

placement of' / settlement

IJ" / resulting from \ ...... // final settlement

" t1 / ~ initial fill

i
1/

\ ///. 45 1/

i/

(Pk-1:

'

l i

\
1

1 S. Grphic.. of ..ia-ent pr
( 1 ) p(O), p(lO) (2) pll), p(ll) , p(20) i , p(21)

i l
. I (10) p(9), p(19J. p(29)

I i

,
1

Since Po and Pi are indepedent of an absolu:t'time, all the time-series data wil be plot.
ted on the same straight line.
REIABILITY ANALYSIS

The solution of Eq. (18), the fist order approximation equation, is predicted here by using Bayesian techniquet under the conditions in which Ci and C are unknown at the time t=O. One definite ~dvantage that the probabilistic approach has over the graphical
metho.d ~s th.at the predi9t~ valu~ is g~ven with its reliabilty. .

As is imphed by the pievious discussions, the :frst order antoregressive model,

Pi=Bo+PipJ-i+07J ('Z)

is chosen here as being a\ suitable one for settlement prediction, in which 1Ij is the random
:.

variable with zero mean fnd unity deviation. Iii .order to make succive calculations

simple. the followings m 8t be assumed: one is that 1Ij is a Gaussian random variable and

the other is I

: E(llj71~):: 1 0 ; j~k (28)

r 1: j=k .

where E( J denotes an ~xpectation opetion. It may be unecessary to state that Eq.

(28) does not suggest tpe statistical independency between Pj and Pt. Thr . unknown

parameters, Po, 8i and (llare sometimes wrtte as fJ for simplicity, that is,
fJ=l (110' Pi' 0)1 : unkown parameter vector.

Now suppose that the sbt of observations,

\ . pti= (Pa, PJ, .... pJ -(29)

I i I

rUL 19 2005 15:23 FR Cloll lCl~1

bId ~::d 1 ..~~ I U 1 ::t:~..D i O~C 1

.i

i I

PREICTION OF SETLEME

9S

has ben already obta~ned. We, then. ha"\e the posterior Probabilty Distribution Function

(pdf) of unknown fJ .$ follows:

\

i
'-1

(30)
.\

E (Olp') ciH(1) n p(pJIl1, P,-I)

where

e (6) :\ a-ptiori pdf of 0

When we have

.1

.~((J)o:. I ; . . I

. p~n.110, P.1_I):\Gaussian pdf with mean. (Bo+iPJ-I)' and variance at.

no information at the time, t:=O, e(fJ) can be given by a diHuse prior pdf,

(31)

If we have some in~~mation at that time, t(fJ) can be expresse by the more informa-

. I\ 1.1 . (j
pdf, E(O\p'). also beqomes a Gauss-gamma joint pd.

tive one than Eq. (3ip. When we take eel)) as a Gauss-gamma joint pdf, the poterior

Next derived is the\ pdf of p~ conditioiied by (J and PO. This pdf is calculated from

I: I'
~i

p(p,IO, flo) =f...f ii P(p:.IO, P.-I). dpdPi...dpJ-I (32)

By using the niatheitical inductive method, the p(p.110, Po) is demonstrated to be a Gaus.

sian pdf, the mean~-MJ' and the variance, Zl, of which are given by

\ 1-81 1-81 'j and . f i =d 1-Blu

\ Mj==.J-(~- Po"ci)J 1
(33)

~ J l-"Pi-

respectively. Altho h both M;and XJ are monotone increaing functions of j, since

inBi":O, they are als bounded from above:

I un j~ 1-8
(
\. .

I lim XJ=dJJ 1-1312

Now, what we should. examine here is the meanig of d. If we take a time series obser.
vation pl, at only onelspOt on a clay stratum. XJ represets the randoni 1ucuation of 'PJ

I J....

i- M Po 1 J-- i

. .

(34)

: i:::
I.
,.:

i.
,:

l'
i:' :.

from the trend MJ. IHowever, we can generally observe settlement at various spotS locat-

ed within a certain ~ea. Let lpl be a time series observation of settlement at spot "l",

.1'.

and let i

:,.

in which m is the number of obseation spots.. In this case, if a settlement proce can

be assumed to be spatially stationar, the d estimated by the posterior pdf.

. I ~(lJlpi)o:E\O) ip(ipJiJ, &PJ-1)

-.-i

I pi=(ip', Ipl, .... .pl) ~35)

;!

.,
.

ca be considered to fclude the property of unequal settlement charcterized by the spa. tial interval between observation spots, 1:;1, 2, .", m. When this is the ease, introducing

I i-u-i . .

-(36)
':l\

; II
\.'1; i' i

: I . i

the concept of an ini~al distribution of Po, p(Po), we obtain

p(rJ10) = IJ pl..Po) 11/(P.10; PIl-i) .dpodpi...d(J,-1
.(37)

i.

I 0) which is different fro~Eq. .(32). An initil distribution of p, p(po) wil represent the
distribution of uneq~ isettlement just after loading. Provided that p(Po) can be expresed
\ ,

, i i

; I; i i

JUL 19 2~ i::::. r~ L.1011 lL.1::1

C 1 ~ OO~ ! W~~ i V w~~-~ . --_.

'~~~~q

. 0 i;

ASAOlt
96

as a Gaussiaii pdf, p(pJl6) becoins 'also a Gaussian pdf just as op(p,,\8,. P)~o :." '...,: . . '.:

Now back to our prediction problem. We have already ben able to derive. the predi~
tive ~f of PJ. condition only by the set of observations, pi, as follOWS;

I .~

200

. \ .
i I

1.0
0.8

ol60

~ ... ...
B

+l -i

~
i:
.ri

~ 'l20 ~ .o .. ~ ... 80 ~
'8 ~ .

II

~ m

~ .. -i
~
o
.
H

0.0

r
i
i

40

\
! i I

0.9747

r.979l

:. 0
0.1
.j ...
l

0.9335

6.00

6.94
Po' em

7.88

l
1

Fig. 6. Posterior ntargiDal pdf's of flo aDd Pi conditioned by the data observed untiU

Dember,"19'2 at Kobe Port, :No.3 0 .

Q)

7.

~ ..-

~6.
In 5.
i:

, ,
\ i i

li .. .. ..
.g '.g'
.

g ~ 4. .. ...
.rl
.. 3.

~ or .",

.0
.2 2.

l!
~

~ ..

CI

ii l.

o. ,.

)o Po.

1'\ ~ ~ 0.6 I 0.8 0.4

270

273

276 . '279 282

2SS

288

a , ci
i I i i

SettJ.nt, em
. ...... :ber;.1916 from .the' data;

Fi. '1. Psteri~ margal of t1 b

Fig.: 8. . .Predictiye pd of th settlement ~f Decem-': of Dembet. i97:f'. 0 '.

. . _. the same :data. .of ~ig.. 6

I i ! I

J U L 1 ~ .k.id ~ i::: d i- '" l. 1 :: I ILL. 1 :: i

"/ \ i I I I

C 1 ;:;: i oJ.... ,v

L wU..-.U I \J.."- At

PREDICTION OF SETTLEMENT
\ i I 1 I

97

p(PJlpt)= f p(PJlfJ. Po)E(O\pt)dfJ.

. -(38)

where

\ i

I dfJ.=:dodiM.
Reliabilty of settlemtnt prediction wil be defned from Eq. (38). For example, the probe
abilty of taking PJ Between Po and p" at time j can be given by

. I f'.

. I Prob. (Pci~PJ~p"i(Jl) = J,. p(pJlpl)dPJ -(39)

The calculation of Et (38) or Eq. (39) can not be performed without an electronic com-

puter because of the multiple inegrations in these equations. .

Figs. 6, 1 and 8 arl the numerical results of the applications of Eq. '(30) and Eq. (38)

to the observations of Kobe Port No.3, which are ilustrated in Figs. 3. To obtain the
results, both e. difIusb prior pdf and the data observed until Decmber, 1972 were employed. The predictipn was conducted towards the settlement of December,

1976, the realzed

value of which was 281 cm. Fig. 8 is the predictive pdf of the settlement. Figs. 6 and
7 are the marginal p~f's of Po. Pi and (J of Eq. (30), respectively. For these calculations

At was taken to be SO-31 days.

I 1

\ SOME SPECIAL PROBLEMS In this section we aerive a general prediction formula of future settlement through in.
vestigations of three Fpecial problems.
i:
Ii

Secondary Compressibn due to Creep i If in the simplest ~se, the secondary compression of clay stratum can be approximately
described by a single iVoigt model subject to a constant external load. Then in this case

\\
i i 1;. I.' i. i I:"

the secondary settiemfnt, fJn, is considere to satisfy

fJii+CPn;:p. (40).
(41)

r.
;. ,

Eq. (40) is given as .

\ PI=(Jjn-(PfJ-pon)ex~- ~)
be expressed as 011015:

the 6rst order linear ~ifferential equation with constant coeffcients. Since the solution of

..

..
; , , ',. ; j

in "..hich Pan is the iJitial condition of Eq. (40) and (J/n==P, then, the total settlement can

t
..
~

0)

"

i P= (Pri+(Jfn) - (Pfr-POi)ex~ - ;J

\ -(Pfl-fJoix)exp( - ~)

where the settlement resulting froIl Terzaghi's consolidation theory is denoted by the

I .
I t
\ i
I

..

(42)

i."

'equation, Eq. (20). It may be easily noticed that p of Eq. (42) is the formal solution of
by introducing a dHfetence form, the next 2 nd order autor-egressive equation.
~43)

lower subscript, J, ahd is exp;essed also by the solution of the "frst order appr-oximation. i

a stable 2 nd order lidear ordinary differential equation with constant coeffcients. Then,

is suggested as being uitable for settlement ;~diction including creep factor.

L fJJ=o+ ~ i()J-_

J U L 1 9 Z5 1 ~ : ~ 4 r ~ L 1 0 I I 1 1 L 1 0 I

b i ~ ~~ 1 ~O~ i V ~ ~u~wu l u~v &

f;

98
,

ASAO"K

'Sttmen of Clay Seraturi with Sand Seams In an ordinary soil explobition. a thin sand seam "Sometimes goe unnoticed. However,
if the sand se allows frJe drainage, this overlooking causes a great error in settlement-

time prediction. . Fig. 9 sh~ws the simple cae of such a situation, in which the total settlement of both stratum I an~ n is g\,en by

I pet) =Pi(t)+Pn(e) (44)

where pi(t) and Pu(t) reprJsent settlements of stratum I and stratum n respectively. Suppose that the sand seam of! Fig. 9 allows free drainage. Furthermore, for simplicity, let
PiCe) and PnCt) be expresSC by the form of Eq. (20). When this is the case, Eq. .(44)

suggests that the total :;ettlement pet) can also be predicted in the same way as is given
in the discussion of the seJondary compression due to creep, that is, by the 2 nd order

autoregressive equation. I

Sand Drains t,1 ; .

. In order to reduce the ti e for consolidatioh, vertical sad drains are sometimes used.
, As is well known, if the ual verical strain hypothesis is approximately satisfied, the

e~Tee of consolidation cai be expresse by a single mode, that is,

,., U=l-exp(.b) (45)

wh~re an eigenvalue is determined from both a horizontal consolidation coeffcient and

geometrical dimensions of knd piles. According to the tradition in soil engineering field, settlement can be treated Js being proportonal to the degree of consolidation. Eq. (45)
shows, therefore, that the settlement by sand drains can be predicte by the first order
autoregressive equation.

General Prediction Formula

The above discussions i1p1Y that a general"settlement prediction model is given by

pJ:=/3o+:E P&Pj_&. (46) -l

An actual settlement may ~ govered by many different factors. However, if those ac~
tors can be mathematically formulate as an eigenvalue problem, prediction formula of Eq.

(46) is quite general. I It should be noted that Eq. (46) is the same form as that of Eq. (17), although the
i

physical meanings of the ioeffcieiits are quite differ.ent.

l. .
I I

8 6 4
-

." .'.-'.: :.".:: .., - -~ "'d.-..' -,'- '- ,-- \

2 o

........ ..... ;..............

JOi
20m

/'

~!Id blanket
i.Ofo

.' ". ',,', ..~.::. .

....

.. ...... ."

.... : ." : .... i ~'. . ~~. .

'"

Clay i I
Thin sa:'lc1 se.:i' -~::M)I~~f';-;:v~~~~~I

Tol?

E -2t.

;;

10m

-t .2 -, ..
Cl

~ -8

- :to
. ,-

'1

~at

cla,'

ZII

3GII

laYi

BottoIi i
: .'....:: !..:.;.::.~~..~..;_.::..=.~:...~:.::-I

I i ! ,

; -10 -12
-14

clayey peat e;it i~yey peat

-.-

botto ot eand
/lOD5C

-~

ra1n1i '_. ...

'''L"ld
.:0:

&1iiy sand
l!nd

-16 -lB

Fig. 9. Drainage from d.in

sand seam \

F~. 10. Soil profile and embankment cros

setion of Iwaiizawa tet fiU

I 1 1

IUL .l~ ~~ i~:4 r~ '.

L 1:: I 1
I

1 L 1:: I

01 OO . ......

I V .. ..Uo...U I UoJ'"''

I PRECTION OF SELEMENT
i

99

The'statistical patameter identification of Eq. ~46) for n~2 from past obsations is.
howevei, hopeless * presnt, since the settlement proces is not statioD1y, that is E(PjJ

~ const. An analytical expression for a predictive pdf of PJ .by Bayesia statistic is for.
mally possible in t~1e same way as is pr.esented in the case of n=l in the previous setion.

The results: howevb-, include super multiple integrations. Therefore, the author recommends the least sqJue estimates of (30 and (i, (s=1, 2, ...) if the long te obsrvation is
available and the c~n5iderabiy large time interal, Llt=tj-tJ-i, can be adopted.

Practically speaking, the nrst order prediction model, Eq. ~21) or Eq. (Z7) should be taken first. When \there exists only one prominent eigenvalue, the :frst order appoxim-

h ~
50
(
, .

-g.! U76 I'N

~ 1977

-.

e , 10 11 2 1 2 3 . $ 6 1 e

100

150

..~ c:
..
~ .. .o .. ll
"'

200
250

'.

..........

...

300

350

.00 . .
\ 400
I

'.. ....
... .. . .

Fig. 11. settilment observations at sand-drain test section of Xwamizw~ test fiB

l:~so
i

Placemeni: of
addi tiona), fill

froi Apr. to June.

1977 ~ i
I
'V

..1300

~~I
I I

\250
I

\
i ! i

200

//

// /

"7

250

300 Pk-1, em

350

400

Fig. 121 Application of proposed graphical method to obserations

Of\ lwamiuwa tes fi
I :1;

JUL 1:: kl.J:: 1:::C:4

1- . i

r-l' L1::1 1
i I I

1 L 1:: I

o 1 ~ ~~~ i U~~ i V A ~U~~~ i ~~~ &

.~

100 A'AOKA
tion method wil give sJtisfactory results. If the model doe not give a good approximation to obser'l8tio~s. thd second order predicuon model, Eq. (46) with n::2, is to be tried

ne~t. I .
A Practical E~mpk 0) A CampI.", BouY Vale P,oI
"~pplicabilty of the first

The applicabilty of t~e proposed settlement prediction method to a complex multilayered.

clay deposit was examinled by using actual data provided from the test fill which was con-

strcted during 1975-19'8 at lwamizawa in Hokkido as a portion of the Do-o exprssway by Japan Highway Publ~c Corporation. The soil profile and the embankment croSS section

at the test secti~n is shbwn in Fig. 10. As shown in the figure, the clay deposit consists of 7 subsoil layers inclu~ing clay, peat and silty clay stratum. Sand piles were driven til the elevation of -13 m ~ or the purpose of vertical drain through the piles. Measured settlements under cente~ of embankment are giiren in Fig. 11. The embankment was left. alone two times with n additional fill, the first time is from the later part of November, 1976 to the midst of A.rU, 1977 ,nd the o~her time began in the last of May, 1977. The propose graphical settl~ment prediction method was applied to the observations obtained.
during these two period~. The results is ilustrated in Fg. 12 which shows the remarkable' order autoregressive prediction medeL. For the ilustration of Fig. I

;(
. .

,,.
1 ~.

12, the time interval,4t, is taken to be 15 days.

I

\ CONCLUSIONS
The observ~tional me~hod for settlement prediction is freshly' proposed in this paper.

For one-dimensional consolidation problems and sand-drain problems, the first order autO. regressive equation, Eq.I(2l) or Eq. (27) is demonstrated to be a suitable one for settlement

prediction. For this pre~iction formula, both the graphical and reliabilstic approaches wer

presented. \

The proposed method is considere to have a great advantage to predict settlement of

an arbitrary future tim, under situations in which a coeffcient of consolidation and both
i
i I i.

initial and boundary Conditions are quite uncertain. Such situations ar considered to be so common in engineeri+g practice that the propOsed method wil ha-ve a certain availabilty.

\
i

As for the unknown coiditions. they can be guessed backward, if necssar, from settlement observations by using the estimated coeffcients of the first order autoregressive equation. i The higher order aut~regressive equation, Eq. (46), suggests to provide more precise!
settlement prediction a~d to be applicable to some special problems, that is, one is con.

cerned with seondaryepmpression and the other is the settlement of multilayered stratum

with sand seams. !

I. i

Th: auth~r is extremrly greatful to Professor Yoshimi Nagao of the Kyoto University for his continuous encouragement. The author also wishes to express his thanks to Pro. fessor Minoru Matsuo f the Nagoya University for his valuable comments on the "Obser-

I ACKNOWLEDGMENT

vational Procedure." . \ .

j R.EFERENCES
1) Aboshi, H. (1969): oil Mechanics, Chap. 4 (edited by Mogami, T.). Tokyo, -Gibo-do, pp.

1 i

46-465 (in Japanese). 2) Japan Highway Public Corporation (1971: Technical Report of lwamizawa Test Fill -(in Japanese).

IUL 1:: c.~~;: 1;:;.c:i ,.'" '-l::li 1'-101

01 ~~ 1 W~~ i V ~ WUW~U l UwU

... .:.~~

i I

PREDICION OF SETTLEMEN

101

:3) Matsuo. M. and \Asaoka, A. (1978): "Dynamic desirn philosophy of soils based on the Bayesian reliabilty predicttion." Soils and Foundations, Vol.S, No.4. pp.1-11.
4) Mikasa, M. (i9): Consolidation of Soft Clay, Tokyo, Kajima-shuppan-kai (in Japanese).
.5) Ten:aghi, K. add Frhiich. O.K. (1936): 1'eorie der Setiung von Tonschichten, Leipzig.

:,1 .1 '1 I

6) Ten:aghi, K. (~48): Theoretical Soil Mechanics, New York, John Wiley and Sons.
'1) Terzaghi, K. a~d Peck, R. B. (1967): Soil Mechanics in Engineering Practice. New York, John

Wiley and Sons.'

I (Received May 22 1978)

I I I

\ i

I i i

I
i
I
:1 i

I I

I i I

. :1 01 :1

I i

I i i I

I i I I ! . i : I l i