ISSUE 1

E WHAT IS THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT? E IS THE CLIMATE REALLY CHANGING? E ELECTRICITY FROM THE RHNE RIVER E FINLAND, AN EXAMPLE TO BE FOLLOWED? E 2001, A RECORD YEAR FOR GERMAN NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS E RUSSIA, THE WORLD'S LEADING OIL PRODUCER

alternatives
TALK ABOUT ENERGY DIFFERENTLY

ENERGIES

WHAT SCENARIO FOR 2050?

EDITORIAL

ARTICLE PAGE4

Meeting in

ENERGIES, WHAT SCENARIOS FOR 2050?

Several scenarios could be envisaged during the next half of the century to satisfy increasing energy needs, the key being the prospect of a more or less acceptable world.

Johannesburg
io and Johannesburg are separated by one ocean and ten years. Representatives from most countries on the planet will thus meet in South Africa between August 26 and September 4, 2002 to discuss what has now become known as sustainable development. We all live on the same planet, and the effects of actions caused by man now go well beyond the local framework within which they used to be limited, and their effects are now planetary. The important questions of energy and water lie at the heart of this concept of sustainable development. How can the needs of developing countries that have legitimate aspirations for a better standard of living be satisfied, without excessively consuming fossil fuel reserves? And how can energy choices in industrial countries be changed to minimize pollution? In a word, what energies should be used for tomorrow? There will be no magic answer to this Rio + 10 summit. However, the energy debate is one of the most important debates of our society. But we cannot calmly ALTERNATIVES consider the political proposals made to us WOULD LIKE TO GIVE YOU if we do not have all necessary high quality ANOTHER VIEW information at hand's reach. It is wrong OF ENERGY. to think that there is an evil type of energy, any more than there is a miracle energy. All that is necessary to reach an agreement is to look at all aspects of the situation. Every quarter, Alternatives will give everyone concerned an opportunity to make a contribution, and to present how this subject is developing technically, scientifically and economically. Everyone can then judge for themselves, with full knowledge of the facts. Alternatives wants to propose another view of energy.

alternatives
3rd quarter 2002 Publication manager

Michel-Hubert Jamard
Editor-in-chief

DECRYPTION

V
! ? ...

Pierre Kolher
Editorial committee

10 12 14

What is the greenhouse effect?

We hear a lot about it, often without realizing what it is all about Illustration of a phenomenon with real consequences for our planet.
WIDE ANGLE

16 18
KIOSK

Michel Forgit, Jean-Ren Germain

Photo credits

Finland, an example to be followed?

The construction of a fifth nuclear reactor in Finland to satisfy economic and environmental constraints; possibly the herald of renewed nuclear electricity generation in the world.

G. Atger/Editing, T. Foulon, Getty-images, J.T. Iiyama, Latreille/Septime Continent, P. Lesage, V. Pancol, Photononstop, E. Robert/Opale, TVO
Illustration

Is the climate really changing?

Alternatives talks to two well-known experts, Robert Kandel and Richard Lindzen, about one of the biggest controversies of our time.

Karambole
Design and production

FREE ELECTRONS

Magazine published

by NUSYS
ESSENTIAL

Electricity from the capricious Rhne River,

but even so, its resources have been harnessed for almost a century to generate electricity and to provide many other benefits.

Pending registration of copyright

In agreement with the informatique et libert French law [78-17 January 6 1978], those no longer wishing to receive Alternatives can ask Publicorps to immediately terminate the subscription.

FOCUS

A selection of news, publications and internet sites to give another view of news about energy and themes discussed in this issue.

19

Editors

PIERRE KOHLER
Editor-in-chief

Former research worker at the CNRS. Ciel & Espaces Director (1982 to 1988). Chief of the RTL Scientific Information Service (1981 to 2001).
with:

2002 NUSYS

JEAN-REN GERMAIN Former Sciences & Vie Editor-in-chief.

MICHEL FORGIT
Former scientific editor at France Inter.

ALTERNATIVES / ISSUE 1 / 2-3

ARTICLE

An overview of the stakes related to energy

It is unrealistic to think that industrialized countries can reduce their energy consumption, although there is still room for progress in terms of energy savings and improving the efficiency of production means. Energy consumption is continuing to increase, therefore this demand has to be satisfied. Needs in developing countries are even greater and it is just as important to satisfy them, otherwise there will be a risk of creating serious economic problems and social unrest.

Energies 2050? What scenario for

n examination of the advantages, disadvantages and availability of all energy sources must take more account of their global environmental impact than in the past, with a view to achieving sustainable development. According to current UNO projections, the population of the earth will increase from 6 billion people at the present time to 9 billion in 2050, and will finally stabilize at between 10 and 12 billion. Most of these future earthlings will live in developing countries where energy consumption is increasing by 5 to 10% per year, compared with 1 to 2% for industrialized countries. Consequently, there is no doubt that demand will increase.

NAMELY

The state of reserves in the world

The current state of known reserves (at the current rate of consumption) is sufficient for 40 years for oil, 56 years for natural gas, and 197 years for coal (source nergie dans le monde, bilan et perspectives - EDP (Energy in the world, summary and prospects Les Editions de physique). For oil, reserves have been more or less constant at about 40 years since the middle of the last century, since the discovery of new deposits has always kept pace with consumption. The trend seems to have reversed since 1980, suggesting a production drop starting from 2010 unless non-conventional resources are used (bituminous shale, tar sands), as Canada has already started to do. But the exploitation of these deposits is very expensive and creates severe environmental problems due to large quantities of polluted effluents. With this option, hydrocarbons could still be present beyond 2050, particularly in the form of natural gas for which exploitation is now growing quickly, while inexpensive oil will soon be a thing of the past. Uranium reserves are of the order of two centuries at the current rate of extraction. But if the share of nuclear is to increase significantly, reserves that are more expensive to exploit will have to be used. There is no doubt about the advantage of supergenerators, since they would extend our energy potential to 6,000 years based on known reserves alone. of spent nuclear fuels. This industrial operation consists of sorting the different fuel components after the fuel has been used in a reactor. The result is to separate uranium (95%) and plutonium (1%) for reuse in new fuel elements that will be returned to nuclear power stations. The remaining 4% are the final waste, and nothing more can be done with it. Therefore, the sort and recycle option is a means of recovering almost (96%) all of the spent fuel, thus also reducing the waste volume to be stored. It thus encourages a better use of resources with a better saving of energy raw materials (of the order of 20%) which is not negligible in the current context.

OR FALSE
Geothermal energy is a form of nuclear energy: TRUE
It uses heat from underground rocks, generated by disintegration of the radioactive elements contained in them.

TRUE

Several scenarios are becoming clear

In 2001, the World Energy Council based in London published a very detailed study on energy aspects of sustainable development. This study explains that if the present energy production mode were to be maintained until 2050,

the global situation would be disastrous. The experts in this organization envisage two scenarios. In the first, in which existing power stations are simply replaced, the share of nuclear power in the global energy production would remain practically at the same level as it is at the moment, equivalent to 0.7 Gtoe. In this assumption, there would be non-negligible growth of renewable energies (from 1.3 to 1.9 Gtoe) but the use of fossil fuels would also increase GTOE (from 7.6 to 9.4 Gtoe) causing global 1 Gtoe equals toe. 1,000,000,000 warming considered to be unacceptable. One ton of oil In the second case, of a world considered equivalent (toe) corresponds to to be acceptable, there would be almost the quantity of complete decarbonationof energy with energy obtained by burning one the main winners being nuclear (1.8 Gtoe) ton of oil. with a 150% increase in production, and renewable energies (5 Gtoe) with the same order of relative growth (+160%). This is the scenario to which we must aim, while making use of complementary solutions,

obviously one of the most important being to work towards achieving energy savings. The IIASA (International Institute For Applied System Analysis) has also made a recent study (2001) in an attempt to evaluate the share of the different forms of energy by 2050. Its conclusion is that the existing oil era could continue during a large part of the XXIst century, with the exploitation of unconventional deposits and the use of techniques such as sequestration of rejected carbon dioxide in the ground.

...

We need to move towards a world qualified as acceptable.

Two advantages
Note also the advantages of treatment recycling

ALTERNATIVES / ISSUE 1 / 4-5

ARTICLE

Scenarios defined by the World Energy Council

in Gtoe (Giga tons oil equivalent) 1.8

EXPERT OPINION
TOTAL: 14.2

TOTAL: 9.5
0.6 1.3 2

3.3

TOTAL: 12
3.4 2.2 0.7 1.9

2.6 1.5

1998

2.5 3.8

3.1

R IO

...

The age in which one energy was predominant over others is finished.

Nuclear Renewable Gas Oil Coal

Towards multiple energy sources

The main factor that will change during the next decades is the distribution of the different available energy forms. All specialists agree that the time during which one form of energy is dominant over another is over, and that we are moving towards what is called an energy mix. For the moment, fossil fuels (coal and oil) take the lions share of the market and account for about three quarters of the total, but it is almost certain that there will be multiple energy sources by the middle of the next century. The environmental context will play an overriding role, particularly due to concerns about global warming. Regardless of whether or not these concerns are real, we must act as if it were dangerous to delay, as pointed out by French President Jacques Chirac in the conference on global warming in The Hague in November 2000. Therefore, substitution energies will gradually take over from fossil fuels that generate greenhouse gases. The leaders will be all types of renewable energies. There is the political will to promote these energies in most countries, even at the price of large subsidies. For example, France will produce 40 TWh from renewable energies in 2010, which is ten times more than at the moment. Therefore,

SCENARIO 1 is the unacceptable world scenario increased disparities global warming by 2C increased death rate SCENARIO 2 is for an acceptable world decarbonation of energy control of transport

the mix of energy sources used in France will be modified significantly in coming years. Contrary to a widely accepted view, renewable energies were not ignored in the past. Hydroelectricity, which is one of the best examples of this category, has been used for more than a century. And remember that it already generates 19% of all electricity produced in the world, more than nuclear, which only produces 16%. The total amount of hydroelectric power produced is 2,540 TWh of energy, which is far from being negligible compared with the 8,320 TWh from the three fossil fuel energies combined. And note also that the potential exploitable hydroelectric energy (14,000 TWh) is greater than the total world production of electrical energy. Therefore in theory, dams alone could satisfy all electricity needs around the planet at the present time! However this is only in theory, since there are large disparities between industrialized countries where TWh the most attractive sites have already Power of a terawatt been developed and developing countries. supplied one In developing countries, it is also important duringOne hour. to take account of the impact of new dams terawatt-hour with the problem of displaced populations is equivalent to a billion (1.5 million persons in China for the Three kWh. Gorges dam and 60 million throughout the world during the XXth century), and the risks of a dam breakage and consequences on the ecosystem.

Make the right to energy

The president of the Right to energy SOS Future" organization created in October 2000, has set himself the task of promoting the right to energy for everyone, everywhere in the world, and obtaining universal recognition of this right.
ALTERNATIVES Its now ten years since Rio how far have we come? Michel Clerc: Well, the situation has certainly changed since 1992, but not necessarily in the right direction. The commitments given during that first Earth Summit havent been pushed through into practice, especially those relating to development aid. The decision was made to devote 0.7% of global GDP to this form of aid, rather than the 0.33% allocated at that time. Not only have we failed to achieve that objective, but the total amount of development aid has actually fallen back to 0.24% today. Added to that, the health of our planet and its climate is catastrophic. Blaming energy producers alone for these problems seems an over-simplification and it gets on our nerves rather given the environmental impact of transport, urbanisation, industrial pollution and so on. There remains, of course, a significant level of pollution produced by the combustion of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas, which are, as we know, finite. Combating the

a fundamental right
greenhouse effect and husbanding these increasingly rare resources presupposes a diversity of energy sources. For example, we should consider using oil-derived products only in those applications where no alternative energy source exists. In your view, can energy needs be satisfied without harming the environment? This has always been one of the objectives of our association, which aims to have the right to energy recognised as a basic human right. In todays world, two billion human beings still rely on burning wood as their only source of energy. Energy is vital in breaking the cycle of poverty and under-development. If we are to respond to these needs and meet a level of demand that seems likely to rise by 50% over the next thirty years, we must increase energy production significantly. If the South is going to get the energy it needs for development, the countries of the North must set a good example, which means rationalising consumption, rather than rationing it. It also

C Michel Clerc, president of the Right to energy SOS Future organization

Attractive wind energy

Although hydroelectric power is by far the predominant type of renewable energy at the moment, producing 93.7% of the total, it is unevenly used geographically, biomass (4.6%) is in second position followed by geothermal energy (1.4%), wind energy (0.3%) and solar energy, which is negligible. Wind energy is still modest in this classification, but it is the field in which most progress has been made in recent years. It is attractive in many respects, but there is no doubt that problems will arise with the installation of wind power generators. They raise protests from ecologists themselves (for example in France in the Larzac area) due to severe noise and visual nuisance, whereas offshore wind power generators cause an outcry from fishermen and navigators. And remember that from a strictly technical point of view, the efficiency of a wind power generator is low. The maximum that can be expected from the best sites (close to the coasts) is 60 kWh per year per square meter of land occupied. Therefore, more than 200,000 wind generators would be necessary to obtain the same power as that generated by existing nuclear power stations in France! The calculation is even worse in terms of energy; three

ZOOM
Key dates of sustainable development

Stockholm- 1972
United Nations summit on man and the environment

Rio- 1992
Earth summit

means diversifying our sources of production, by which I mean not only renewable energy sources, but also nuclear energy in those countries where the necessary technology exists. Only then will it be possible to produce and consume the required amount of energy whilst conserving our planet for future generations. What do you expect to come out of the next global summit on sustainable development? It will prove its value only if it comes to clear decisions on a set of regulations capable of responding effectively to the challenges I have spoken about. To do that will require international bodies, regional authorities and individual states having real power to direct global energy choices in ways that promote sustainable development.

New York- 1997

United Nations general assembly

Johannesburg AugustSeptember 2002

World summit on sustainable development

...

If the South is going to get the energy it needs for development, the North must set a good example.

ALTERNATIVES / ISSUE 1 / 6-7

ARTICLE

After two decades of controversy, nuclear may return to the front of the stage.

ed dwellings that cannot be connected to the network. But it will never be an energy capable of satisfying the primary needs of a country. Potential geothermal resources are enormous, but the heat flux is too low to be exploited directly, except in the presence of water tables heated in depth, which reduces the number of exploitable sites. Furthermore, the water thus used contains carbon dioxide, which when rejected into the atmosphere (380 g/kWh),

SOME NUMBERS

Consumption of primary energy in the world in 2000

in Mtoe (Millions of tons oil equivalent)

IN BRIEF
PRIMARY ENERGY: in generating and consuming energy, it is important to make a distinction between primary energy that includes all forms of use (transport, heating, electricity, etc.) and energy that is only used after conversion to electricity. This is why the share of nuclear (which is only used in electricity generation) is only 6.3% for transport, whereas its share in electricity production is slightly greater than 16%. EPR (EUROPEAN PRESSURIZED REACTOR): new type of Franco-German nuclear reactor marketed by Framatome ANP and Siemens. It will be ten times safer than existing reactors and its life will be 60 years, one and a half times the life of existing reactors. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: the definition was given by the Brundtland Commission in 1987 and was used again at the Rio summit five years later Development that satisfies the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to satisfy their needs. Therefore this approach reconciles economic development, social equilibrium and respect of the environment. RENEWABLE ENERGIES: energies that are inexhaustible within the human time scale (solar energy), or renewable within a very short time (biomass). They have the advantage that they save oil resources for uses other than energy, such as petrochemicals.

6.3%
19.5%
renewable energies
Hydroelectric 690 Mtoe (6.5%), biomass (wood) 1,200 Mtoe (11.3%), renewable energies (solar, wind, etc.) 180 Mtoe (1.7%). Nuclear 669 Mtoe.

nuclear energy

74.2%
Coal 2,186 Mtoe (20.6%), oil 3,504 Mtoe (33.1%), gas 2,164 Mtoe (20.5%).
Source BP statistical review, 2001

fossil energies

...

times as many would be necessary to compensate for the handicap due to their poor efficiency and low availability. Although many wind farms have been developed in recent years in Germany (3,500 GWh generated in 1997), Denmark and Spain are only considering the use of wind power as a complementary energy to create fuel savings.

OR FALSE
Hydroelectric dams do not contribute to the greenhouse effect: FALSE
The decomposition of plants covered by water generates emissions of carbon and methane that contribute to increasing the greenhouse effect. Furthermore, destruction of vegetation by the lake is equivalent to deforestation.

TRUE

Limited use for solar power

Solar power also has a low energy density (not many kWh per hectare) as a weakness, and is also variable depending on cloud cover. To give an order of magnitude, 10,000 hectares of land would have to be occupied by photovoltaic panels to produce the same amount of electricity as a conventional thermal power station. This means deforestation. This type of power station can only be installed in deserts, but electrical needs around desert regions are very limited. Another problem is that the manufacture of photovoltaic materials creates dangerous pollutants, particularly containing chlorides. Conversion of sunlight into electricity also has inconveniences; the best efficiency of a light cell is 20% in a laboratory, and between 10 and 15% in practice, without any real prospect for improvements. However, some observe that a genuine research and development effort in this subject would undoubtedly be able to increase its efficiency to make it nearly competitive with other energy forms. And solar energy will always be justified to supply power to isolat-

contributes almost as much to the greenhouse effect as coal (1,000 g/kWh). Forty-six countries in the world are now using geothermal energy, producing a total of 43 TWh per year, and the BIOMASS identified potential is 60 TWh. Therefore, Energy it does not seem possible that this type of derived essentially energy could develop significantly by 2050. from wood, Biomass energy generated from plants which biogas and biofuels. is indirect solar energy is developing at very different rates in different countries. Out of an additional world potential evaluated at 70 Mtoe, only one is used to produce energy. Thus, renewable energies

will apparently have a great deal of difficulty in becoming predominant in the energy mix. Because, although technological progress has very much improved their performances, none is really competitive with fossil fuels at the moment.

And nuclear?
Under these conditions, what about nuclear? After two decades of controversy, particularly related to the strengthening of ecologist movements and the Chernobyl accident, several indexes suggest that this energy will return to the front of the stage in the near future. Admittedly, many arguments have been made against it; the question of long-term storage of waste, risks of accidents such as Three Miles Island and Chernobyl, the threat of terrorist attacks. But the fact that it does not generate any greenhouse effect is very attractive in the current context. Industrialists have developed new reactors such as the EPR that are safer, more competitive and use fuel more efficiently. The United States had stopped installing new power stations, and is now considering a bold new thrust. Finland has set the example in Europe. Japan, China and some other countries in Asia, never stopped their construction program. Electricity generation in France exceeds demand

and no new unit has been installed since Civaux in 1999, but the question needs to be considered. And countries that have decided to abandon nuclear power (Sweden and Germany) have never used the nuclear reactors that they already operate so intensely! The share of nuclear power is steady for the moment but it is expected to increase significantly in the next decades, particularly due to the multiplication of smaller units, which are best adapted to liberalization of the electricity market.

A new growth mode to be invented

At the time of the opening of the Johannesburg summit that has been baptized Rio + 10, it is useful to reiterate the statement made by the 178 countries present in Brazil in 1992; the future of the planet is threatened by overexploitation of natural resources, a production mode based on short-term cost effectiveness and energy waste. A new growth mode must be adopted to slow environmental degradation, with better respect for natural resources. In the same year, the World Energy Council in Madrid demonstrated that economic development is not necessarily incompatible with protection of the environment. This compromise is called sustainable development. s

SOME NUMBERS

Cost per kWh for different power station types

estimated future costs per kWh, in thousandths of a dollar (1 996) 79.1 24.8 23.3 33.3 46.4 47.4 32.2 55.8 57.4

USA
COAL GAS NUCLEAR

France

Japan
Source OECD/NEA

ALTERNATIVES / ISSUE 1 / 8-9

DECRYPTION

A step by-step guide to obtain a better understanding of a natural phenomenon, a technique

The greenhouse effect owes its name to the construction used particularly by market gardeners to protect their plants, and also to retain heat.

What is the
he greenhouse effect is explained by the fact that some of the energy received by the Earth from the sun is retained in the atmosphere. Air is almost transparent to light, but it blocks most infrared radiation reflected by the earth's surface. The heat thus trapped increases the air temperature, like in a greenhouse. This is why the phenomenon is named as it is, and this phenomenon is quite natural and is due essentially to the presence of water vapor in air. Without the greenhouse effect, the average temperature on the surface of our planet would be -18C, whereas it is actually +15C! These 33 degrees of difference are very important since they make it possible to sustain life on Earth. However, since the beginning of the industrial era, increasing quantities of carbon dioxide emissions (and others) have amplified this greenhouse effect (+0.6C in one century). Every year, the atmosphere and the ground

greenhouse ef fect?
exchange a hundred billion tons of carbon, and man rejects 7 billion tons which is comparatively negligible. However, some claim that it is enough to increase the carbon content in the atmosphere, and consequently the atmosphere retains more heat.
SOLAR RAYS PASS THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE

SOLARTION RADIA

SOLARTIONS RADIA

INCREASE IN HEAT DUE TO GREENHOUSE GASES EMITTED BY MAN

Getting a balanced view

Unlike what might be thought, there is nothing new about the fear of global warming; more than a century ago in 1890, the Swede Svante Arrhnius feared that an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, produced essentially by the combustion of coal, would cause global warming. In any case, the natural greenhouse effect should not be confused with the additional greenhouse effect caused by humans. The question is to determine how much of global warming is due to the anthropologic effect and how much is due to the natural variability of the climate. s
THE TEMPERATURE OF THE EARTH WOULD BE 33OC LOWER WITHOUT THE NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT

INFRARED RADIATION REFLECTED BY THE GROUND IS TRAPPED

B
TEMPERATURE INCREASE

THE ADDITIONAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT DUE TO HUMAN ACTIVITY

Human activity, particularly since the beginning of the industrial revolution, is the origin of a phenomenon that is additional to the natural greenhouse effect and accentuates it. By rejecting gases that stay in the atmosphere for a long time, man is contributing to greater warming. Thus, the average temperature has increased by 0.6C during the past century.

The main greenhouse effect gases

Six gases are mentioned in international agreements.
CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2)

Find the mistake....

A study by research workers at the University of Lige and the University of Ottawa was published in the Nature Scientific Review in December 2000, and showed that the carbon dioxide content was very high (twenty times the modern day content) during the Ordovician era (450 million years ago) and in the lower Cretaceous era (150 million years ago), although an ice age was beginning at the same time! Therefore, warming of the atmosphere is not systematically related to the concentration of carbon dioxide, and correlation and concomitance should not be confused.

THE NATURAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT SOURCE OF LIFE

After passing through the atmosphere, solar rays are absorbed by the earth and warm it. The ground then reflects infrared radiation that is trapped by some gases contained in the atmosphere and cause heat retention. This is a natural phenomenon that maintains the average temperature of the earth and allows life to develop.

Carbon dioxide is released by the combustion of wood, coal, oil and natural gas. The concentration of this carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by 26% and it contributes 55% to the greenhouse effect. METHANE (CH4) Methane is caused essentially by the decomposition of plants,

either naturally (rice paddies, marshes) or by animals (digestion of cattle). Combustion of coal and household waste also produces methane. Its concentration in the atmosphere has increased in volume by 130% and its contribution to the greenhouse effect is 15%.
NITROGEN MONOXIDE (N2O)

its concentration in the atmosphere has increased in volume by 13% and its contribution to the greenhouse effect is 6%.
FLUORIDE GASES (HFC, PFC, SF6)

Nitrogen monoxide originates from internal combustion engines, some factories and the use of fertilizers with a high nitrogen content. In 150 years,

Emitted by old aerosol cans, refrigerators and air conditioning systems. Their share is gradually reducing due to the ban on the use of the old chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) as required according to the Montreal protocol.

ALTERNATIVES / ISSUE 1 / 10-11

! ? ...
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Is the climate rea lly changing?

This theme is seen in many media A political, economic and scientific debate A phenomenon that is frequently presented as a planetary catastrophe

hat drives scientific knowledge forward is not consensus, but controversy. This is one of the major difficulties in communication between the general public, which expects certainties, and scientists, who offer them only strong presumptions accompanied by a variety of discordant opinions. The vital issue of climate change is no exception to this paradox: if increases in the greenhouse effect caused by human activity are undeniable, the real issue is to understand the extent of these increases and, more importantly, to calculate what they might mean for the future.

helping deliver a clearer global picture and strengthening our convictions.

Credible forecasts?

The risk of going live

This is a question over which the scientific community is taking what the world of television calls the risk of going live, driven by the heavyweight reports published every three years by the IPCC, the international scientific group operated under the auspices of UNO and responsible for studying global climate change. As our knowledge increases, our models are refined and our computers become ever more powerful, some assertions made in previous reports are strengthened, weakened or, in some cases, even contradicted. Nevertheless, the stimulus of scientific criticism is

Published in 2001,the latest report contains news of very significant progress: the best global climate models are now capable of reproducing the trend in the earths temperature over the last 140 years, based on existing records. So, in reconstructing our recent past, we no longer have to rely solely on natural occurrences (variations in solar activity, major volcanic eruptions, etc.), but can also factor in the effects of industrial and agricultural activity on our atmosphere. It seems that this activity has been responsible for around half of the 0.6C increase in average temperature recorded during the 20th century. This ability to recreate known past trends lends credibility to forecasts for the near future. Depending on whether or not we implement policies to limit emissions of greenhouse gasses, average global temperatures could rise by between 1.5 and 5.5C by the end of the 21st century and remain at those levels for a long time thereafter! These are forecasts, not prophecies. But what is the point of such forecasts? To put this rampant controversy into context,we have turned to two experts with established reputations in this field. s

hat is certain, is that the composition of the atmosphere is changing due to human activity. The increase in the content of carbon dioxide, methane and some other gases is directly or indirectly the result of human, industrial and agricultural activities. These gases are involved directly in mechanisms for energy transport in the atmosphere, which is the reason for the increase in the temperature of the earth's surface. This is not really dramatic yet, since the average increase in temperature since the

The composition of the atmosphere is changing due to human activity () but we haven't seen anything yet.

first half of the 19th century is only 0.7C. Which is not much compared with what we can expect in the next century. This is because the content of carbon dioxide has increased from 290 ppm (or 290 cm3 of gas per m3 of air) to 370 ppm. If there is no radical ecological change, developing countries which legitimately want a better life (particularly China and India) and which so far have consumed very little per person, will need to produce more energy. Therefore, there is a risk that they will use fossil fuels, which

C Robert Kandels opinion

Climatologist at the cole Polytechnique, research director at the CNRS.

would increase the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from 450 to 600 ppm in fifty years! This is what I mean when I say we have not seen anything yet. s

Global warming is something that affluent people worry about.

Professor at the Massachussets Institute of Technology (MIT), member of the National Academy of American Sciences.

C Richard Lin dzens opinion

his subject of the global warming is above all a business, since there is a great deal of money behind it. It is commonly heard that scientists are unanimous, but there are many who do not share this assumption. It would be ridiculous to think that hundreds

of scientists all agree in a field in which there are about ten different disciplines. Is it possible to seriously believe that there are no dissidents? In any case, the aura of certainty that accompanies the conclusions of the IPCC (International Panel for Climate Change) is clearly more political than scientific. Advocates of the global warming theory tend to manipulate the results of climatic science over the

last few years, using a number of strategies to deceive the public and the media. These include the presentation of an abstract within the various reports published by this organization, which does not reflect the contents of the main report. All this would undoubtedly cease if there was another major economic depression in the world. Global warming is something that affluent people worry about. s

ALTERNATIVES / ISSUE 1 / 12-13

Gnissiat/Seyssel Chautagne

FOCUS

A field report on a local policy or experiment

Belley Brgnier-Cordon Sault-Brnaz

GENEVA

STATEMENTS
LYONS

Hydroelectric energy only accounts for 1 5% of all electricity produced in France at the moment, but it has two major advantages; water is a renewable and storable resource, and production can be adjusted to demand in real time since all that is necessary to obtain power immediately is to open the valves.

Pierre-Bnite

Vaugris Page de Roussillon (toll station) Saint-Vallier

Marc Zyberblat

Laurent Kompf
VNF Regional Manager in Lyons
Voies Navigables de France (French Navigable Waterways), CNR and the Port Authority of Marseilles issued a contract in July to support the development of river transport on the Rhne and the Sane, obviously for freight traffic, but also for tourism. Twelve 100-meter long ships equipped like cruise liners already ply up and down the river carrying several hundred passengers.

Dominique Grange
Captain of the port of lEpervire
Three leisure ports have been developed as a result of work on the Rhne. The port of l'pervire built by the Drme Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCI) in 1977 is the largest in France. It has five pontoons and the same installations as the most modern shipping ports. Nearly 300 ships (some of which are 20 meters long) remain there at all times, and more than 900 others stop over every year.

Electricity from the

he government decided to build dams on the Rhne River in the 1920s. There were two objectives firstly to facilitate navigation, and secondly to satisfy the increasing demand for electricity. This ambitious program materialized in 1933 with the creation of the CNR (Compagnie Nationale du Rhne National Rhne Company). However, the choice of the Rhne was not easy since it is a capricious river. Its average flow is 1,500 m3 per second, but it can be as high as 10,000 m3,as was the case in 1993. Attempts were made to control the river in the middle of the last century, but the possibility of controlling the river as a whole, to generate electricity, enable navigation to the sea, and irrigate farm land, was not considered until the CNR was created. There are now 19 dams and power stations that supply a quarter of all hydroelectricity produced in

Bourg-les-Valence Beauchastel Baix/Le Logis-Neuf Montlimar Donzre/Mondragon Caderousse Avignon

Environment mission leader at the CNR

Protecting and acting on behalf of nature is part of CNR's vocation. But there is no point in talking about the environment for its own sake. Our policy is to associate local communities and organizations for the protection of the nature and institutional players, with our work. Obviously, this partnership with all persons concerned with the river is technical, but it may also be financial.

Rhne Riv er
France, and 14 large locks enabling the transport of 4,400 ton 200-meter long convoys between Lyons and PortSaint-Louis.

Vallabrgues Palier dArles

MARSEILLES

Safety on the downstream side of dams

Water releases may be decided upon during normal operation of a dam, even outside flood periods. For example, this is the case if a turbine fails. Many signs inform the public about the risks, and valves are opened in several steps to give walkers time to move away from the river bed. Areas that may be threatened are regularly identified and marked under the authority of the Prefectures.

From the dam to the spillway

Most structures installed on the Rhne are flood spillways, which is why the level difference between the upstream and downstream sides is only a few meters; for example, 23 meters at Donzre/Mondragon, which this year celebrated its fiftieth anniversary of construction after providing excellent service. Water passes through controllable valves, and some of this water then passes along a headrace

canal to the turbine and the alternator, in the electrical power station that is sometimes very far from the dam 17 km in the case of DonzreMondragon. Massive dams can only be built at a narrowing of the valley. The most famous is at Gnissiat for which construction began in 1936. It is 70 meters thick at the base and 103 meters high, and it retains 12 million m3 of water.

EDF is an important technical service provider for CNR.

Water for agriculture

The construction of dikes, dams and drainage developments have made it possible to irrigate several tens of thousands of hectares and to protect 50,000 hectares against flooding. The extent of farming activities in the Rhne valley, and their diversity and quality are largely the result of this immense work. Irrigation with water from the Rhne has also reduced pumping of ground water, which is now reserved for human consumption. The Rhne hydroelectric development program began 70 years ago and is now complete. The result is year-round navigation for the largest convoys, opening up a major traffic route between the Mediterranean and the leading economic regions of Northern Europe. s

Selling kilowatts
CNR was married to EDF for a half century, but it was never a subsidiary since it had a special legal status as a limited company in the public interest under government control. Joint operation of the dams terminated with deregulation of the electricity market, and on April 1 2001, the CNR became an independent electricity producer. It now has kilowatts produced by its own power stations and can sell them directly to its customers, however

Protect the environment

The river development has reduced the flow in several rivers and tributaries of the Rhne. The CNR, with the participation of the State and the Water Agency, would like to restore the ecological diversity of former times to these regions. Water is taken out of the turbines to be put back into old water courses. Thus, the flow on the old Rhne in Pierre-Bnite has increased from 3 to 100 m3 per second. Other initiatives such as the construction of migratory fish bypass routes are already giving excellent results.

ALTERNATIVES / ISSUE 1 / 14-15

WIDE ANGLE

A more detailed look at the energy policy of a country

While the United States, on the other side of the Atlantic, is still uncertain about the construction of new power stations, Finland has given the green light to a fifth reactor. Is this the herald of resumed production of nuclear electricity throughout the world?

Aerial view of Loviisa nuclear power station and simulation of the extension project.

Finland, an example to be followed?

NORWAY

FINLAND
OLKILUOTO
LOVIISA

here is no doubt that this small country in the European Economic Union with its five million inhabitants is continuing to surprise us with its independent spirit. It confirmed that it will construct a fifth nuclear reactor, on May 24 this year. The four that are already in operation by the Teolisuuden Voima Oy group (two boiling water reactors in Olkiluoto in the South-East of the country) and Fortun Power & Heat Ltd. (two pressurized water reactors on the Loviisa site) supply one third of the electricity consumed annually, making this electricity production mode the leading mode in this country.

OR FALSE
The site on which the future unit will be installed has not yet been finalized: TRUE
The Finnish government is still hesitating between Olkiluoto and Loviisa.

TRUE

Although manufacturers were ready in the 1970s, public opinion and the politicians were not. A first attempt to pass this project in the Finland parliament failed in 1993. This time, after many administrative procedures and within a new economic context, the representatives of the Finnish people decided that they had no choice but to use nuclear to assure their energy supply. Members of Parliament could not do other than accept the evidence and there were many arguments that convinced them to take the plunge.

The justification
Firstly, the economic arguments. A study carried out by Finergy, the Finnish federation of energy industries, has shown that energy consumption in industry increased by more than 25% over the last 10 years, and that it will not stop

A decision made after many years

However, the decision to build this fifth reactor was not made easily.

increasing. It predicts annual consumption growth of 1.5% up to 2010, and then 1%. Up to now, Finland has purchased electricity at a competitive price from its two neighbors, Sweden and Norway, to satisfy annual consumption growth. But there is a strong risk that energy supplies may become more expensive, considering the threat of global warming put forward by many scientists, and economic surprises that are always possible as a result of deregulation of the Scandinavian electricity market. Existing nuclear power stations are also becoming older. Therefore, specialists estimated that the country needed an additional generating capacity of 3,800 MW in 2015. Without looking any further ahead, the new Finnish power station will generate between 1,000 and 1,600 MW for 60 years.

Kyoto commitments
There are also environmental arguments. Finland signed the Kyoto protocol in 1997, with the objective of bringing carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 to their 1990 level, which is the reason for the logical decision to use nuclear rather than fossil fuels to face increasing electricity demand. Therefore, on January 17 this year, the Finnish government made the decision to build this fifth nuclear unit, for which the project was submitted by the TVO company. The Trade and Industry Committee approved the project by nine votes to six after passing through seven specialized committees, and it was adopted on May 24 this year by Parliament. s

The two Finnish nuclear power stations

Finland has four nuclear power units, two on the Olkiluoto site and two on the Loviisa site.

SWEDEN

HELSINKI

RUSSIA

TECHNICAL

The characteristics of the future nuclear unit

The reactor type (PWR or BWR) has not yet been chosen, nor has its power (1,000 to 1,600 MW). All that has been defined is the budget between 1.7 and 2.5 billion euros. Construction of this new unit should be complete in 2008 and it will provide employment for almost 2,000 persons. It will require a permanent team of 150 to 200 persons for its operation. Water disposed of into the Gulf of Finland will be 12C warmer than the sea water, which should be beneficial for local biology. The radioactivity of radioactive products rejected during normal operation will be less than 1% of the maximum allowable dose, which is 1/3,000 of the dose received in Finland due to natural radioactivity.

ALTERNATIVES / ISSUE 1 / 16-17

ESSENTIAL

News about all energies

KIOSK

Read, see, discover

ENERGY

ENVIRONMENT

INTERNET

EDITION

2001, a record year for German nuclear power stations

UNITED STATES
778 TWh

Dr Etienne's cell with a difference

research worker to Spitzberg. The energy for the Polar observer was generated by a fuel cell supplied with hydrogen and oxygen supplied by three technological partners of the expedition (COGEMA, CEA and AXANE, subsidiary of AIR LIQUIDE). The objective for its manufacturers was to check the reliability of this type of generator operating under extreme conditions (-40C). The fuel cell has demonstrated its capabilities in space for many years, since all American space vessels (Gemini, Apollo, space shuttle) are equipped with it. This experiment was intended to prepare for its use on earth, for public transport applications, and for the remote generation of electricity in small units such as a house or a building. This type of generator has the advantage that it is non-polluting, particularly from the point of view of greenhouse gas emissions. s

THE ALTERNATIVES SELECTION

Every quarter, we suggest a selection of sites that provide further information about the themes discussed.
THE JOHANNESBURG SUMMIT www.johannesburgsummit.org
SITE IN ENGLISH

What energy for tomorrow?

World nuclear electricity output in 200 1

by Pierre Bacher
This book written by a graduate from cole Polytechnique who began his career at the CEA (Atomic Energy Commission) and then joined the EDF Development Division, reviews all energies that can be used for electricity production, without omitting any. The author considers each in detail and attempts to evaluate the future of each, without attempting to give a final solution to the questions asked. He hierarchises the advantages and disadvantages of each of these energy sources in a clear manner, partly to satisfy needs but also considering problems that they create for the environment and human health. Nothing has been forgotten, not even an analysis of the termination of the Superphnix super generator or excesses by some anti-nuclear associations. A reference book that will give a better understanding of the great contemporary energy challenge.
Pierre Bacher What energy for tomorrow? 175 pages - Nuclon editions (2000)
(in French only)

FRANCE
394 TWh

JAPAN
317 TWh

GERMANY
171 TWh

RUSSIA
129 TWh

ORGANIZATION SITES www.globalclimate.org/index.htm

SITE IN ENGLISH

German nuclear power stations beat their own record for electricity generated last year; the total quantity of energy supplied to the electrical network on the other side of the Rhine was 171 TWh. Although this value is only slightly greater than the previous year (by 1 TWh), it should be noted that eight German nuclear reactors are among the ten most productive in the world at the moment! Furthermore, for the third consecutive year, the Isar-2 reactor

produced a total of 12.4 TWh, and was the most efficient nuclear reactor generating electricity in 2001. Out of the 31 countries that use nuclear energy at the present time, Germany is in fourth position, and is only behind the United States, France and Japan, and it is in front of Russia (129 TWh). It should be noted that this performance is achieved with a relatively small number of reactors (19, compared for example with 58 in France). s

www.johannesburgsummit.org

The official site of the summit.

www.joburgsummit2002.com
SITE IN ENGLISH

Everything about preparation and organization of the summit.

Dr Jean-Louis Etienne already has an impressive list of maritime and polar expeditions to his credit, and has just finished drifting on the ice shelf for three months onboard the Polar Observer. This odd sort of pyramid shaped igloo, a genuine survival vessel in this hostile environment, led the doctor-

www.joburgsummit2002.com

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE www.environnement.gouv.fr/ dossiers/developpementdurable/ default.htm

SITE IN FRENCH

This Global Climate Coalition site is composed of American companies that contest the Kyoto protocol on climate change. Presentation of scientific articles and books, a must for anyone who wants an overview of the subject other than that distributed by the GIEC.

www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/
SITE IN ENGLISH

www.globalclimate.org/index.htm

ECONOMY

Russia, the world's leading oil producer

Russia has the sixth-largest oil reserves in the world (about 50 billion barrels, slightly less than 5% of the total). However, in the last six months it has become the world's leader in terms of production, passing in front of Saudi Arabia. Russian production is now about three billion barrels per year (mainly by five companies that alone hold more than 80% of the reserves). The Russian government is not satisfied with this achievement, and intends to work with American and European oil companies to start operation of new fields, particularly in the Komis region. s
www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/

This is the site of the ex-French Ministry of the Environment, that has become the Ministry of Ecology and Sustainable Development in the new government. For example, it contains details of the French strategy proposal that will be presented at Johannesburg, and the entire French report (2001) produced to the UNO Sustainable Development Commission.

This British site is the site of the world's largest organization (WEC World Energy Council) that contains information on the subject of energy. It presents a rich and broad range of information including permanently updated news, press releases, calendar of conferences and other events in this field. It also contains documents in French.

SITE ON CLIMATE www.rac-f.org/sosclimat

SITE IN FRENCH

www.effet-de-serre.gouv.fr
SITE IN FRENCH

www.rac-f.org/sosclimat

This site is the interministerial greenhouse effect mission. There are various subjects (news on global warming, numbers about greenhouse effect emissions in France, ongoing actions, agenda, etc.). Very general site dedicated to neophytes.

This is an activist site produced by four environmental organizations grouped into an association, for a general public communication campaign on climate change. However, presentation is partisan and the site is no longer up to date.

ALTERNATIVES / ISSUE 1 / 18-19

interactive
Can the recent break-up of large icebergs in the Antarctic be blamed on global warming?
During the first half of this year, satellites observed several large plates of ice drifting around the edge of the Antarctic continent near Chili, with impressive areas of between 2,000 and 3,000 km2. Apart from the fact that even larger plates detached during the 1960s before the question of climatic warming first arose, it will be noted that calving of icebergs is a normal phenomenon around islands such as the Antarctic and Greenland. Glaciers slide under their own weight. Therefore, break up around the edge of these ice sheets is mechanically inevitable, without there being any direct link with the average temperature of the atmosphere. In any case, a recent report on renewable energies written by the persons working at the parliamentary office for evaluation of scientific and technological choices (OPECST), criticized this option. In their study, the two authors demonstrate that persons who want to satisfy the requirements of the Kyoto protocol cannot be

Answers to the most frequently asked questions

Is it a good idea to prefer the massive installation of wind farms to increase the proportion of renewable energies in France?
satisfied by an all wind power solution. The authors state that wind power will not solve CO2 problems since thermal power stations capable of taking over during periods without wind will be necessary. Jean Yves Le Daut and Claude Birraux recommend that biofuels and thermal solar energy should be preferred.

Are there any more hydrocarbon deposits in the North Sea?

Yes, a Norwegian operator will soon start production on a very large natural gas deposit (13 billion cubic meters); production will start up in October 2004. However, there will be some engineering difficulties since this deposit is very rich in CO2, a greenhouse effect gas that can no longer be allowed to escape into the atmosphere. Therefore, the deposit concerned will be connected through a pipeline to an existing treatment platform 18 km away from it.

ASK YOUR QUESTIONS

The Alternatives editorial team chose three questions-answers related to recent news for this first issue. This is your section, and you are all invited to send us your questions. Experts in each subject will answer in other issues.

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E The reactors of the future

What do the nuclear power generators of the USA, France or Germany offer for the future? Where are we now with research and testing? How has safety improved? Have we taken the question of waste into account in these new technologies? The next Alternatives special feature will be taking a closer look at EPR, SWR, HTR and hybrid reactors, with comments from some of the top specialists in the field....