Scenario AnaIysis

Subject: Business Research &

Methodology
Professor in Charge: Seoksoo Kim
Team Members(6):
nternational Trade & Commerce
- Seokhyun shin/Seokyoon Jung
/Jungwon Byun
nternational Logistics & Port Management
- Jongjoo Kim/ nsoo Kim
nternational Cooperation
- Taeeun Kim
ase Studies: ase 1 ase Studies: ase 1- -10 (pp. 10 (pp.
638~654) 638~654)
based on based on Business Research Business Research
Methods Methods
by William G. Zikmund by William G. Zikmund
efinition efinition
Scenario analysis Scenario analysis is a process of is a process of
analyzing possible future events by analyzing possible future events by
considering considering alternative possible alternative possible
outcomes(scenarios). outcomes(scenarios). The analysis is The analysis is
designed to allow designed to allow improved decision improved decision
making making by allowing complete by allowing complete
consideration of outcomes and their consideration of outcomes and their
implications. implications.
!urpose !urpose
n order to exploit opportunities n order to exploit opportunities and and
minimize threats that exist in the external minimize threats that exist in the external
environment, companies must be able to environment, companies must be able to
analyze their analyze their internal strengths and internal strengths and
weaknesses weaknesses and and implement implement
strategies strategies based on their particular based on their particular
resources, capabilities and core resources, capabilities and core
competencies. competencies.
!urpose !urpose
Scenario is an internally consistent Scenario is an internally consistent
depiction of a possible future state of an depiction of a possible future state of an
economy or industry or technology economy or industry or technology
Scenario analysis is a structured way of Scenario analysis is a structured way of
developing multiple scenarios developing multiple scenarios
!nitial scenarios are conducted at high !nitial scenarios are conducted at high
levels, subsequent scenarios may be at levels, subsequent scenarios may be at
the firm level the firm level
!rocess !rocess
!dentify Uncertainties !dentify Uncertainties
Determine casual factors Determine casual factors
Nake range of plausible assumptions Nake range of plausible assumptions
Combine assumptions into scenarios Combine assumptions into scenarios
nalyze industry behaviour under each nalyze industry behaviour under each
scenario scenario
Determine strengths/weaknesses under Determine strengths/weaknesses under
each scenario each scenario
Predict competitor behaviour Predict competitor behaviour
Scenario 1 : ase 1 & 2 Scenario 1 : ase 1 & 2
[The AtIanta Braves/ Harvard ooperative [The AtIanta Braves/ Harvard ooperative
Society] Society]
ontext AnaIysis ontext AnaIysis
'he Atlanta Braves: 'urner Field 'he Atlanta Braves: 'urner Field
Building a newly Building a newly designed 21st Century designed 21st Century form form
of Baseball Stadium of Baseball Stadium
Spectators vs. Participants Spectators vs. Participants
Customer Customer oriented development oriented development
oo Bleachers are closer to the pitch. Bleachers are closer to the pitch.
oo Enhanced supplementary facilities. Enhanced supplementary facilities.
oo Real Real time broadcasting system. time broadcasting system.
oo Price Price setting for the non setting for the non use seats(skyline seat) use seats(skyline seat)
oo nteractive game equipment nteractive game equipment
ontext AnaIysis ontext AnaIysis
arvard Cooperative Society arvard Cooperative Society
!ew decision support system is required. !ew decision support system is required.
Was the Harvard Square store attracting Was the Harvard Square store attracting
steady traffic? steady traffic?
Were the college students buying enough Were the college students buying enough
books and supplies for the Coop to make a books and supplies for the Coop to make a
profit? profit?
!rimary Activities & other !rimary Activities & other
Support Activities Support Activities
'he Atlanta Braves 'he Atlanta Braves
ey marketing objectives: ey marketing objectives: !ew !ew
generation of baseball fans generation of baseball fans
Diversify fans' activities at every turn. Diversify fans' activities at every turn.
Fan's becoming part of what's happening Fan's becoming part of what's happening
at Turner Field after the minute a fan's at Turner Field after the minute a fan's
ticket is torn. ticket is torn.
!rimary Activities & other !rimary Activities & other
Support Activities Support Activities
arvard Cooperative Society arvard Cooperative Society
ey objectives: ey objectives: !ew era needs !ew System !ew era needs !ew System
for a decision for a decision maker maker
Decision Support System(Nurphy's PC) Decision Support System(Nurphy's PC)
Up Upto tothe theminute, easy minute, easyto toread electronic read electronic
reports on sales reports on sales
Electronic inventory check Electronic inventory checkup up
Report on gross margins for any product or Report on gross margins for any product or
suppliers suppliers
Scenarios designed for Scenarios designed for
further questioning further questioning
The tlanta Braves The tlanta Braves Narketing Nix Narketing Nix
Recommended Business Research Recommended Business Research
Nethods Nethods
Role of Business Research Role of Business Research
dvantages of Decision support System dvantages of Decision support System
arketing ix arketing ix
carthy identified the four !s of the marketing mix (40 years ago!)

!roduct: Defines the characteristics of your product or service that
meets the needs of your customers.

!rice: Decide on a pricing strategy - do not let it just happen! Even if
you decide not to charge for a service (a loss leader), you
must realise that this is a conscious decision and forms part of
the pricing strategy.

!romotion: This includes all the weapons in the marketing armoury -
advertising, selling, sales promotions, Public Relations, etc.

!Iace
(or route of
distribution):
Some of the revolutions in marketing have come about by
changing this P. Think of telephone insurance and the
internet! A bit of lateral thinking here might reap rewards for
your business.

Recommended Business Research Recommended Business Research
Methods Methods
Secondary data gathering Secondary data gathering
Nall intercept !nterview Nall intercept !nterview
Personal !nterview Personal !nterview
!nternet Survey !nternet Survey
Role of Business Research Role of Business Research
!dentifying problems or opportunities !dentifying problems or opportunities
Diagnosing and assessing problems or Diagnosing and assessing problems or
opportunities opportunities
Selecting and implementing a course of Selecting and implementing a course of
action action
Evaluating the course of action Evaluating the course of action
Advantages of Decision support Advantages of Decision support
System System
Small Business Ex) &!(Universal Product Code), Till System
1. Easy to access to the data
2. Easy to transIorm data into valid inIormation
3. Easy to check-up inventory
ajor orporation Capable oI Iacilitating #
(Customer Relationship Management)

Transnational
orporation/Organization

Global Information System

Scenario 2 : ase 3 & 9 Scenario 2 : ase 3 & 9
[TuIsa's entraI Business istrict [TuIsa's entraI Business istrict
vs. New WiIIiams enter ompIex] vs. New WiIIiams enter ompIex]
ontext AnaIysis ontext AnaIysis
Revitalization of Revitalization of Tulsa's Central Business Tulsa's Central Business
District District
1) 1) The Quantity and !ature of the The Quantity and !ature of the
Downtown Population Downtown Population
2) 2) Commercial Enterprise(and vacancy) Commercial Enterprise(and vacancy)
!nventory !nventory
3) 3) Business's Opinions about the CBD Business's Opinions about the CBD
4) 4) Shoppers' Opinions about CBD Shoppers' Opinions about CBD
ontext AnaIysis ontext AnaIysis
survey of the Central Business District survey of the Central Business District
employers and employees employers and employees
oo Characteristics Characteristics
oo Work habits Work habits
oo ttitudes ttitudes
ontext AnaIysis ontext AnaIysis
Survey of Commercial Establishments Survey of Commercial Establishments
and Off and Offstreet parking facilities street parking facilities
oo Types Types
oo Sizes Sizes
oo Location Location
ontext AnaIysis ontext AnaIysis
Survey of Commercial vacancies Survey of Commercial vacancies
oo Concentrating on ground Concentrating on groundfloor space floor space
oo Consideration given to multi Consideration given to multistorey storey
commercial building commercial building
ontext AnaIysis ontext AnaIysis
n On n Onthe the --street Sample Survey of street Sample Survey of
shopping attitudes and preferences shopping attitudes and preferences
oo ddressing attitudes toward working and ddressing attitudes toward working and
living downtown living downtown
Business Situations Business Situations
'he Williams Company 'he Williams Company
Strength : bundant Capital Strength : bundant Capital
Weakness : Lack in information about new Weakness : Lack in information about new
business business
oo !nternal resources !nternal resources
oo Current !mage of the company Current !mage of the company
oo Casual Casualuser market information user market information
Scenarios designed for further Scenarios designed for further
questioning questioning
Critical Points on the Critical Points on the Chamber of Chamber of
Commerce's Commerce's Research Proposal Research Proposal
!ewly !ewly suggested research proposal suggested research proposal
Research Nodel Research Nodel
(Case 3: Nail Survey of CEO) (Case 3: Nail Survey of CEO)
riticaI !oints on the hamber of riticaI !oints on the hamber of
ommerce's Research !roposaI ommerce's Research !roposaI
Static Population vs. Dynamic flow of Static Population vs. Dynamic flow of
Population Population
External networking of CBD External networking of CBD
Target Users of !ew Williams Center Target Users of !ew Williams Center
Complex : Business Runner/Shopper/ Complex : Business Runner/Shopper/
Resident Resident
NewIy NewIy- -suggested research suggested research
proposaI proposaI
a) a) Secondary Data Study Secondary Data Study
Literature Studies Literature Studies
Benchmarking Benchmarking
NewIy NewIy- -suggested research suggested research
proposaI proposaI
b) b) Survey Survey
Nall !ntercept Personal !nterview Nall !ntercept Personal !nterview
Telephone !nterview Telephone !nterview
Nail Survey Nail Survey
!nternet Survey !nternet Survey
Panel Study Panel Study
NewIy NewIy- -suggested research suggested research
proposaI proposaI
c) c) Pilot Study Pilot Study
oo Focus Croup !nterview Focus Croup !nterview
Research odeI Research odeI
(ase 9: aiI Survey of ) (ase 9: aiI Survey of )
'he Chamber of Commerce in 'ulsa 'he Chamber of Commerce in 'ulsa
. . Sample Selection Sample Selection -- systematic random systematic random
sampling of firms in the second stratum sampling of firms in the second stratum
was from Polk's City of Tulsa was from Polk's City of Tulsa
Directory( Reserve directory) Directory( Reserve directory)
B. B. Rate of survey returned : 61 Rate of survey returned : 61
Research odeI Research odeI
(ase 9: aiI Survey of ) (ase 9: aiI Survey of )
'he Chamber of Commerce in 'ulsa 'he Chamber of Commerce in 'ulsa
C. C. Problems Problems
oo !s collecting information of mail survey via CEO !s collecting information of mail survey via CEO
enough or valid? enough or valid?
oo Nail survey can be cost Nail survey can be costefficient , geographically efficient , geographically
flexible, and convenient for respondents, and flexible, and convenient for respondents, and
easy to gather generalized ideas on given task, easy to gather generalized ideas on given task,
however, it doesn't seem appropriate for the however, it doesn't seem appropriate for the
William Company considering its strength and William Company considering its strength and
long longterm implementation plan. term implementation plan.
Scenario 3 : ase 4 Scenario 3 : ase 4
[HamiIton !ower TooIs] [HamiIton !ower TooIs]
ontext AnaIysis ontext AnaIysis
Nost Sales are to Professionals Nost Sales are to Professionals
Nanagements wareness Nanagements wareness
During the late 1370s and early 1380, During the late 1370s and early 1380,
oo Energy crisis Energy crisis
oo Novement from urban and suburban areas to exurban areas Novement from urban and suburban areas to exurban areas
oo Second homes in countryside Second homes in countryside
oo Do Doit ityourself trend yourself trend
!ecessity of target market expansion for the future growth !ecessity of target market expansion for the future growth
!ndustrial user !ndustrial userbased market based market to to casual user(consumer) casual user(consumer)oriented oriented
market market
ontext AnaIysis ontext AnaIysis
!ecessity of target market expansion for !ecessity of target market expansion for
the future growth the future growth
!ndustrial user !ndustrial userbased market based market to to casual casual
user(consumer) user(consumer)oriented market oriented market
Business Situations and !rimary Business Situations and !rimary
Activities Activities
Strengths Strengths: Narket share in the industrial : Narket share in the industrial
professionals and product technology are professionals and product technology are
high. high.
Weaknesses Weaknesses: !o preparation for the : !o preparation for the
changing market trend and lack in the changing market trend and lack in the
information on the casual information on the casualuser market. user market.
Business Situations and !rimary Business Situations and !rimary
Activities Activities
Notivational Research Notivational Research suggested by suggested by
Consumer Netrics of Chicago: Consumer Netrics of Chicago: 'A' 'A'
Designed in use of consumer studies to Designed in use of consumer studies to
uncover people's buying motives. uncover people's buying motives.
oo Neans of gaining the flavour of the language Neans of gaining the flavour of the language
people use in talking about chain saws people use in talking about chain saws
oo Source of new ideas for copyright Source of new ideas for copyright
Business Situations and !rimary Business Situations and !rimary
Activities Activities
'A' Study Procedure for casual 'A' Study Procedure for casual
users toward chain saws users toward chain saws
Exhibit : The cost of doing the job, and Exhibit : The cost of doing the job, and
the ease and speed of using chain saw the ease and speed of using chain saw
oo Using a hand saw Using a hand saw
oo Hiring s tree surgeon Hiring s tree surgeon
oo Renting or borrowing a chain saw Renting or borrowing a chain saw
TAT Study !rocedure for casuaI TAT Study !rocedure for casuaI
users toward chain saws users toward chain saws
Exhibit B Exhibit B : : How to use chain saw How to use chain saw
Price related to Safety Price related to Safety
oo Ease of handling Ease of handling
oo Length of blade Length of blade
oo Which was the best brand Which was the best brand
oo Whether it had direct drive Whether it had direct drive
oo Whether it had gas protector Whether it had gas protector
oo Self Selflubrication lubrication
oo The warranty (guarantee) The warranty (guarantee)
oo Ease of Controls Ease of Controls
oo Specifications Specifications
oo vailability of credits vailability of credits
oo Possibility of mixing oil and gas Possibility of mixing oil and gas
TAT Study !rocedure for casuaI TAT Study !rocedure for casuaI
users toward chain saws users toward chain saws
Exhibit C : The fear of using chain saw Exhibit C : The fear of using chain saw
except a D!Y man except a D!Y man
Exhibit D : The value of purchasing chain Exhibit D : The value of purchasing chain
saw saw
Scenarios designed for further Scenarios designed for further
questioning questioning
Critical Points on 'A' performed by Critical Points on 'A' performed by
Consumer Netrics of Chicago Consumer Netrics of Chicago
Recommendations to Campagna Recommendations to Campagna
concerning the Casual concerning the Casual user chain user chain
saw market saw market
riticaI !oints on TAT performed riticaI !oints on TAT performed
by onsumer etrics of hicago by onsumer etrics of hicago
Does this meet the need of Hamilton Does this meet the need of Hamilton
Power Tools' inquiry? Power Tools' inquiry?
oo !t doesn't seem relevant to greater profit !t doesn't seem relevant to greater profit
making in the chain saw division making in the chain saw division
oo !eed to be revised in pictures !eed to be revised in pictures
riticaI !oints on TAT performed riticaI !oints on TAT performed
by onsumer etrics of hicago by onsumer etrics of hicago
Hamilton seems targeting the home owned male Hamilton seems targeting the home owned male
users market only. users market only.
Purchasing vs. Renting Purchasing vs. Renting
oo The method seems invalid and unreliable to The method seems invalid and unreliable to
increase the sales of chain saws in casual increase the sales of chain saws in casualuser user
market. Since most of users of chain saws consider market. Since most of users of chain saws consider
not only the usability, but the cost. When you can not only the usability, but the cost. When you can
rent out the chain saw for temporal use, why rent out the chain saw for temporal use, why
bother purchasing one. bother purchasing one.
Recommendations to ampagna Recommendations to ampagna
for the asuaI for the asuaI- -user chain saw user chain saw
market market
1) 1) Contribute to the physical creation of the Contribute to the physical creation of the
product or service and its sale product or service and its sale
2) 2) Transfer to the buyer Transfer to the buyer
3) 3) Enhance after Enhance aftersale service sale service
4) 4) Research the competitor in the target Research the competitor in the target
market market
Scenario 4 : ase5 Scenario 4 : ase5
[iddIemist !recision TooI [iddIemist !recision TooI
ompany] ompany]
ontext AnaIysis ontext AnaIysis
alidity and Reliability alidity and Reliability of the newly of the newly
developed developed radial arm saw radial arm saw (using T square (using T square
and trial cuts) invented by Dennis and trial cuts) invented by Dennis
Niddlemist in the market. Niddlemist in the market.
'he market potential 'he market potential
oo How many arm saws there in the US and How many arm saws there in the US and
patent issue patent issue
oo How many prospective customers there might How many prospective customers there might
be for his invention be for his invention
Scenarios designed for further Scenarios designed for further
questioning questioning
Research existing similar products Research existing similar products
oo Secondary Data Secondary Data
oo Patent Record Patent Record
Prospective Customers Research Prospective Customers Research
oo Focus Croup Focus Croup
oo Experimental Survey(Testing) Experimental Survey(Testing)
oo Secondary Data collected via !nternet Secondary Data collected via !nternet
Prospective Customers Research Prospective Customers Research
What is Radial arm saw and what is the primary What is Radial arm saw and what is the primary
concern of the customer in using it? concern of the customer in using it?
http://www.sawdustmaking.com/ http://www.sawdustmaking.com/
Research example: Research example:
http://www.sustain.ubc.ca/ http://www.sustain.ubc.ca/
Research on existing goods Research on existing goods
http://woodbutcher.net/toolpix.htm http://woodbutcher.net/toolpix.htm
Example of the Narket research planning Example of the Narket research planning
http://www.concept.ntnu.no/ http://www.concept.ntnu.no/
Scenario 5 : ase 6 Scenario 5 : ase 6
[!ass] [!ass]
Business researcher Business researcher vs. vs. Task Task
force force
Business researcher Business researcher: :
ssessing commuters demand for the ssessing commuters demand for the
service is important. service is important.
'ask force 'ask force : :
The principal role is to investigate The principal role is to investigate
commuter's preferences for how the commuter's preferences for how the
service should be configurated ideally. service should be configurated ideally.
Recommended Research design Recommended Research design
oo Traffic Trafficconcentrated area !nterview concentrated area !nterview
oo Telephone !nterview Telephone !nterview
oo Nail survey Nail survey
oo !nternet Survey !nternet Survey
Scenario 6 : ase 7 Scenario 6 : ase 7
[Today's an] [Today's an]
Hypnotic treatment Hypnotic treatment in Business in Business
Research Research
dvantages : dvantages :
!t can help to minimize or reduce !t can help to minimize or reduce
oo !onresponse bias !onresponse bias
oo cquiescence bias cquiescence bias
oo Social desirability bias Social desirability bias
Disadvantages : Disadvantages :
oo Ethical argumentations. Ethical argumentations.
AdditionaI research AdditionaI research
recommended recommended
Survey Questionnaire design with 3rd Survey Questionnaire design with 3rd
person technique person technique
Role Roleplay: ex) Psycho drama rather than play: ex) Psycho drama rather than
hypnotism or mesmerism hypnotism or mesmerism
Scenario 7 : ase 8 Scenario 7 : ase 8
[oraI GabIes, FIorida] [oraI GabIes, FIorida]
ock jury ock jury and its evaIuation and its evaIuation
Demographics and values of evidence Demographics and values of evidence
presentation at bar presentation at bar
PercepTrac PercepTrac
oo handled device that mock jurors use to handled device that mock jurors use to
gauge their positive gauge their positive
oo !egative responses to facts presented in a !egative responses to facts presented in a
trial. trial.
The effectiveness of jury The effectiveness of jury
research research
Easy to test Easy to test
voodoo legistigation voodoo legistigation
Survey errors Survey errors
Sample selection error Sample selection error
Response bias Response bias -- uspices bias uspices bias
Scenario 8 : ase 10 Scenario 8 : ase 10
[The Greeting ard Study] [The Greeting ard Study]
vaIuation of the covering Ietter vaIuation of the covering Ietter
Compare it with the Exhibit 10.2 : Compare it with the Exhibit 10.2 :
Examples of Cover Letter for Household Survey Examples of Cover Letter for Household Survey
oo Official letterhead Official letterhead
oo Date mailed Date mailed
oo !nside address in matching type !nside address in matching type
oo What study is about, its social usefulness What study is about, its social usefulness
oo Why recipient is important (and if needed, who should complete the Why recipient is important (and if needed, who should complete the
questionnaire) questionnaire)
oo Promise of confidentiality, explanation of identification number Promise of confidentiality, explanation of identification number
oo Usefulness of study Usefulness of study
oo Token reward for participation Token reward for participation
oo What to do if questions arise What to do if questions arise
oo ppreciation ppreciation
oo Pressed blue ballpoint signature Pressed blue ballpoint signature
oo Title Title
!ossibIe survey error !ossibIe survey error
!onresponse bias !onresponse bias
Deliberate falsification Deliberate falsification
oncIusion oncIusion
nteractive Scenario AnaIysis nteractive Scenario AnaIysis
Case Study and Scenario Analysis Case Study and Scenario Analysis
Presenter and Audience nteraction Presenter and Audience nteraction
The End The End
ny Questions? ny Questions?