IntheMiddleEast,whocareswhatObamasays?

ByRobertFisk
31May2011 http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/whocaresinthemiddleeastwhat obamasays2290761.html TheIndependentMonday,30May2011 WhocaresintheMiddleEastwhatObamasays?Obama'spolicytowardstheMiddleEastwhateveritis sometimesappearssomuddledthatitisscarcelyworthyofstudy.Hesupports,ofcourse,democracy thenadmitsthatthismayconflictwithAmerica'sinterests.InthatwonderfuldemocracycalledSaudi Arabia,theUSisnowpushingaheadwitha40billionarmsdealandhelpingtheSaudistodevelopa new"elite"forcetoprotectthekingdom'soilandfuturenuclearsites.HenceObama'sfearofupsetting SaudiArabia,twoofwhosethreeleadingbrothersarenowsoincapacitatedthattheycannolonger makesanedecisionsunfortunately,oneofthesetwohappenstobeKingAbdullahandhis willingnesstoallowtheAssadfamily'satrocityproneregimetosurvive. ByRobertFisk PresidentObamahasshownhimselftobeweakinhisdealingswiththeMiddleEast,saysRobertFisk, andtheArabworldisturningitsbackwithcontempt.ItsfuturewillbeshapedwithoutAmerican influenceThismonth,intheMiddleEast,hasseentheunmakingofthePresidentoftheUnitedStates. Morethanthat,ithaswitnessedthelowestprestigeofAmericaintheregionsinceRooseveltmetKing AbdulAzizontheUSSQuincyintheGreatBitterLakein1945. WhileBarackObamaandBenjaminNetanyahuplayedouttheirfarceinWashingtonObamagrovelling asusualtheArabsgotonwiththeseriousbusinessofchangingtheirworld,demonstratingand fightinganddyingforfreedomstheyhaveneverpossessed.Obamawaffledonaboutchangeinthe MiddleEastandaboutAmerica'snewroleintheregion.Itwaspathetic."Whatisthis'role'thing?"an Egyptianfriendaskedmeattheweekend."Dotheystillbelievewecareaboutwhattheythink?" Anditistrue.Obama'sfailuretosupporttheArabrevolutionsuntiltheywereallbutoverlosttheUS mostofitssurvivingcreditintheregion.ObamawassilentontheoverthrowofBenAli,onlyjoinedin thechorusofcontemptforMubaraktwodaysbeforehisflight,condemnedtheSyrianregimewhich haskilledmoreofitspeoplethananyotherdynastyinthisArab"spring",saveforthefrightfulGaddafi butmakesitclearthathewouldbehappytoseeAssadsurvive,waveshispunyfistatpunyBahrain's crueltyandremainsabsolutely,stunninglysilentoverSaudiArabia.Andhegoesonhiskneesbefore Israel.Isitanywonder,then,thatArabsareturningtheirbacksonAmerica,notoutoffuryoranger,nor

withthreatsorviolence,butwithcontempt?ItistheArabsandtheirfellowMuslimsoftheMiddleEast whoarethemselvesnowmakingthedecisions. TurkeyisfuriouswithAssadbecausehetwicepromisedtospeakofreformanddemocraticelections andthenfailedtohonourhisword.TheTurkishgovernmenthastwiceflowndelegationstoDamascus and,accordingtotheTurks,Assadliedtotheforeignministeronthesecondvisit,baldlyinsistingthathe wouldrecallhisbrotherMaher'slegionsfromthestreetsofSyriancities.Hefailedtodoso.The torturerscontinuetheirwork. WatchingthehundredsofrefugeespouringfromSyriaacrossthenorthernborderofLebanon,the TurkishgovernmentisnowsofearfulofarepeatofthegreatmassIraqiKurdishrefugeetidethat overwhelmedtheirborderintheaftermathofthe1991Gulfwarthatithasdrawnupitsownsecret planstopreventtheKurdsofSyriamovingintheirthousandsintotheKurdishareasofsoutheastern Turkey.TurkishgeneralshavethuspreparedanoperationthatwouldsendseveralbattalionsofTurkish troopsintoSyriaitselftocarveouta"safearea"forSyrianrefugeesinsideAssad'scaliphate.TheTurks arepreparedtoadvancewellbeyondtheSyrianbordertownofAlQamishliperhapshalfwaytoDeir elZour(theolddesertkillingfieldsofthe1915ArmenianHolocaust,thoughspeakitnot)toprovidea "safehaven"forthosefleeingtheslaughterinSyria'scities. TheQatarisaremeanwhiletryingtopreventAlgeriafromresupplyingGaddafiwithtanksandarmoured vehiclesthiswasoneofthereasonswhytheEmirofQatar,thewisestbirdintheArabianGulf,visited theAlgerianpresident,AbdelazizBouteflika,lastweek.QatariscommittedtotheLibyanrebelsin Benghazi;itsplanesareflyingoverLibyafromCreteandundiscloseduntilnowithasQatariofficers advisingtherebelsinsidethecityofMisratainwesternLibya;butifAlgerianarmourisindeedbeing handedovertoGaddafitoreplacethematerialthathasbeendestroyedinairstrikes,itwouldaccount fortheridiculouslyslowprogresswhichtheNatocampaignismakingagainstGaddafi. Ofcourse,italldependsonwhetherBouteflikareallycontrolshisarmyorwhethertheAlgerian "pouvoir",whichincludesplentyofsecretiveandcorruptgenerals,aredoingthedeals.Algerian equipmentissuperiortoGaddafi'sandthusforeverytankheloses,Ghaddafimightbegettingan improvedmodeltoreplaceit.BelowTunisia,AlgeriaandLibyasharea750miledesertfrontier,aneasy accessrouteforweaponstopassacrosstheborder. ButtheQatarisarealsoattractingAssad'svenom.AlJazeera'sconcentrationontheSyrianuprisingits graphicimagesofthedeadandwoundedfarmoredevastatingthananythingoursoftwesterntelevision newsshowswoulddarebroadcasthasSyrianstatetelevisionnightlyspittingattheEmirandatthe stateofQatar.TheSyriangovernmenthasnowsuspendedupto4billionofQatariinvestmentprojects, includingonebelongingtotheQatarElectricityandWaterCompany. AmidallthesevastandepiceventsYemenitselfmayyetprovetobethebiggestbloodbathofall, whilethenumberofSyria's"martyrs"havenowexceededthevictimsofMubarak'sdeathsquadsfive monthsagoisitanysurprisethatthefrolicsofMessrsNetanyahuandObamaappearsoirrelevant? Indeed,Obama'spolicytowardstheMiddleEastwhateveritissometimesappearssomuddledthat itisscarcelyworthyofstudy.Hesupports,ofcourse,democracythenadmitsthatthismayconflict

withAmerica'sinterests.InthatwonderfuldemocracycalledSaudiArabia,theUSisnowpushingahead witha40billionarmsdealandhelpingtheSaudistodevelopanew"elite"forcetoprotectthe kingdom'soilandfuturenuclearsites.HenceObama'sfearofupsettingSaudiArabia,twoofwhose threeleadingbrothersarenowsoincapacitatedthattheycannolongermakesanedecisions unfortunately,oneofthesetwohappenstobeKingAbdullahandhiswillingnesstoallowtheAssad family'satrocityproneregimetosurvive.Ofcourse,theIsraeliswouldfarpreferthe"stability"ofthe Syriandictatorshiptocontinue;betterthedarkcaliphateyouknowthanthehatefulIslamistswhomight emergefromtheruins.ButisthisargumentreallygoodenoughforObamatosupportwhenthepeople ofSyriaaredyinginthestreetsforthekindofdemocracythattheUSpresidentsayshewantstoseein theregion? OneofthevainestelementsofAmericanforeignpolicytowardstheMiddleEastisthefoundationalidea thattheArabsaresomehowmorestupidthantherestofus,certainlythantheIsraelis,moreoutof touchwithrealitythantheWest,thattheydon'tunderstandtheirownhistory.Thustheyhavetobe preachedat,lectured,andcajoledbyLaClintonandherilkmuchastheirdictatorsdidanddo,father figuresguidingtheirchildrenthroughlife.ButArabsarefarmoreliteratethantheywereageneration ago;millionsspeakperfectEnglishandcanunderstandalltoowellthepoliticalweaknessand irrelevanceinthepresident'swords.ListeningtoObama's45minutespeechthismonththe"kickoff' tofourwholedaysofweaselwordsandpufferybythemanwhotriedtoreachouttotheMuslimworld inCairotwoyearsago,andthendidnothingonemighthavethoughtthattheAmericanPresidenthad initiatedtheArabrevolts,ratherthansatonthesidelinesinfear. Therewasaninterestinglinguisticcollapseinthepresident'slanguageoverthosecriticalfourdays.On Thursday19May,hereferredtothecontinuationofIsraeli"settlements".Adaylater,Netanyahuwas lecturinghimon"certaindemographicchangesthathavetakenplaceontheground".Thenwhen ObamaaddressedtheAmericanAipaclobbygroup(AmericanIsraelPublicAffairsCommittee)onthe Sunday,hehadcravenlyadoptedNetanyahu'sownpreposterousexpression.Nowhe,too,spokeof "newdemographicrealitiesontheground."Whowouldbelievethathewastalkingabout internationallyillegalJewishcoloniesbuiltonlandstolenfromArabsinoneofthebiggestproperty heistsinthehistoryof"Palestine"?DelayinpeacemakingwillundermineIsraelisecurity,Obama announcedapparentlyunawarethatNetanyahu'sprojectistogoondelayinganddelayingand delayinguntilthereisnolandleftforthe"viable"PalestinianstatewhichtheUnitedStatesandthe EuropeanUnionsupposedlywishtosee. Thenwehadtheendlesswaffleaboutthe1967borders.Netanyahucalledthem"defenceless"(though theyseemedtohavebeenprettydefendableforthe18yearspriortotheSixDayWar)andObama oblivioustothefactthatIsraelmustbetheonlycountryintheworldtohaveaneasternlandfrontier butdoesn'tknowwhereitisthensayshewasmisunderstoodwhenhetalkedabout1967.Itdoesn't matterwhathesays.GeorgeWBushcavedinyearsagowhenhegaveArielSharonaletterwhichstated America'sacceptanceof"alreadyexistingmajorIsraelipopulationcentres"beyondthe1967lines.To thoseArabspreparedtolistentoObama'sspinelessoration,thiswasagroveltoofar.Theysimplycould notunderstandthereactionofNetanyahu'saddresstoCongress.HowcouldAmericanpoliticiansrise

andapplaudNetanyahu55times55timeswithmoreenthusiasmthanoneoftherubberparliaments ofAssad,Salehandtherest? AndwhatonearthdidtheGreatSpeechifiermeanwhenhesaidthat"everycountryhastherightto selfdefence"butthatPalestinewouldbe"demilitarised"?WhathemeantwasthatIsraelcouldgoon attackingthePalestinians(asin2009,forexample,whenObamawastreacherouslysilent)whilethe Palestinianswouldhavetotakewhatwascomingtothemiftheydidnotbehaveaccordingtotherules becausetheywouldhavenoweaponstodefendthemselves.AsforNetanyahu,thePalestiniansmust choosebetweenunitywithHamasorpeacewithIsrael.Allofwhichwasveryodd.Whentherewasno unity,NetanyahutoldusallthathehadnoPalestinianinterlocutorbecausethePalestinianswere disunited.Yetwhentheyunite,theyaredisqualifiedfrompeacetalks. Ofcourse,cynicismgrowsthelongeryouliveintheMiddleEast.Irecall,forexample,travellingtoGaza intheearly1980swhenYasserArafatwasrunninghisPLOstateletinBeirut.AnxioustodestroyArafat's prestigeintheoccupiedterritories,theIsraeligovernmentdecidedtogiveitssupporttoanIslamist groupinGazacalledHamas.Infact,IactuallysawwithmyowneyestheheadoftheIsraeliarmy's SouthernCommandnegotiatingwithbeardedHamasofficials,givingthempermissiontobuildmore mosques.It'sonlyfairtosay,ofcourse,thatwewerealsobusyatthetime,encouragingacertain OsamabinLadentofighttheSovietarmyinAfghanistan.ButtheIsraelisdidnotgiveuponHamas.They laterheldanothermeetingwiththeorganisationintheWestBank;thestorywasonthefrontpageof theJerusalemPostthenextday.Buttherewasn'tawhimperfromtheAmericans. ThenanothermomentthatIcanrecalloverthelongyears.HamasandIslamicJihadmembersall Palestinianswere,intheearly1990s,thrownacrosstheIsraeliborderintosouthernLebanonwhere theyspentmorethanayearcampingonafreezingmountainside.Iwouldvisitthemfromtimetotime andononeoccasionmentionedthatIwouldbetravellingtoIsraelnextday.Immediately,oneofthe Hamasmenrantohistentandreturnedwithanotebook.Hethenproceededtogivemethehome telephonenumbersofthreeseniorIsraelipoliticianstwoofwhomarestillprominenttodayand, whenIreachedJerusalemandcalledthenumbers,theyallturnedouttobecorrect.Inotherwords,the IsraeligovernmenthadbeeninpersonalanddirectcontactwithHamas. Butnowthenarrativehasbeentwistedoutofallrecognition.Hamasarethesuperterrorists,the"al Qa'ida"representativesintheunifiedPalestinianleadership,themenofevilwhowillensurethatno peaceevertakesplacebetweenPalestiniansandIsraeli.Ifonlythisweretrue,therealalQa'idawould bemorethanhappytotakeresponsibility.Butitisnottrue.Inthesamecontext,Obamastatedthatthe PalestinianswouldhavetoanswerquestionsaboutHamas.Butwhyshouldthey?WhatObamaand NetanyahuthinkaboutHamasisnowirrelevanttothem.ObamawarnsthePalestiniansnottoaskfor statehoodattheUnitedNationsinSeptember.Butwhyonearthnot?IfthepeopleofEgyptandTunisia andYemenandLibyaandSyriaweareallwaitingforthenextrevolution(Jordan?Bahrainagain? Morocco?)canfightforfreedomanddignity,whyshouldn'tthePalestinians?Lecturedfordecadeson theneedfornonviolentprotest,thePalestinianselecttogototheUNwiththeircryforlegitimacy onlytobeslappeddownbyObama.

Havingreadallofthe"PalestinePapers"whichAlJazeerarevealed,thereisnodoubtthat"Palestine's" officialnegotiatorswillgotoanylengthstoproducesomekindofstatelet.MahmoudAbbas,who managedtowritea600pagebookonthe"peaceprocess"withoutoncementioningtheword "occupation",couldevencaveinovertheUNproject,fearfulofObama'swarningthatitwouldbean attemptto"isolate"IsraelandthusdelegitimisetheIsraelistateor"theJewishstate"astheUS presidentnowcallsit.ButNetanyahuisdoingmorethananyonetodelegitimisehisownstate;indeed, heislookingmoreandmoreliketheArabbuffoonswhohavehithertolitteredtheMiddleEast.Mubarak sawa"foreignhand"intheEgyptianrevolution(Iran,ofcourse).SodidtheCrownPrinceofBahrain (Iranagain).SodidGaddafi(alQa'ida,westernimperialism,younameit).SodidSalehofYemen(al Qa'ida,MossadandAmerica).SodidAssadofSyria(Islamism,probablyMossad,etc).Andsodoes Netanyahu(Iran,naturallyenough,Syria,Lebanon,justaboutanyoneyoucanthinkofexceptforIsrael itself). Butasthisnonsensecontinues,sothetectonicplatesshudder.IdoubtverymuchifthePalestinianswill remainsilent.Ifthere'san"intifada"inSyria,whynotaThirdIntifadain"Palestine"?Notastruggleof suicidebombersbutofmass,millionstrongprotests.IftheIsraelishavetoshootdownamerefew hundreddemonstratorswhotriedandinsomecasessucceededincrossingtheIsraeliborderalmost twoweeksago,whatwilltheydoifconfrontedbythousandsoramillion.ObamasaysnoPalestinian statemustbedeclaredattheUN.Butwhynot?WhocaresintheMiddleEastwhatObamasays?Not even,itseems,theIsraelis.TheArabspringwillsoonbecomeahotsummerandtherewillbeanArab autumn,too.Bythen,theMiddleEastmayhavechangedforever.WhatAmericasayswillmatter nothing.