Vol 465|24 June 2010

NEWS

Italy puts seismology in the dock

Scientists who assessed earthquake risk at LAquila could be indicted on manslaughter charges.
of the committee were at the press conference. Survey in Pasadena, California. But Hough does The deadly earthquake that struck the central But on 6 April a magnitude-6.3 earthquake disagree with some of the things said at the press Italian city of LAquila on 6 April 2009, has had struck LAquila, killing 308 people, leaving conference. The idea that minor earthquakes a bizarre aftershock: some of Italys top seismol- about 1,600 injured and more than 65,000 release energy and thus make things better is ogists could face charges of manslaughter for homeless. A group of local citizens later said a common misperception. But seismologists not alerting the population before the disaster. that many of the earthquakes victims had know its not true, she says. I doubt any scienThe indictment has outraged experts around been planning to leave their homes but had tist could have said that. the world, who note that earthquakes De Bernardinis, Boschi and Selcannot be predicted and who say that vaggi said that they were unable to the Italian government neglected to comment on the case because of the enforce building codes that could ongoing investigation. Before the have reduced the toll. indictment, Boschi had criticized the The indictments, issued on 3 June Civil Protection Agencys handling of by the LAquila public prosecutors the 31 March meeting. Such a meetoffice, name six scientists as being ing, he stated in a letter on 16 Sepinvestigated for manslaughter in relatember 2009 to Guido Bertolaso, the tion to the earthquake. In Italy, this head of the Civil Protection Agency, step usually precedes a request for a should have lasted hours if the Civil court trial, and is meant to allow the Protection Agency really wanted to accused time to prepare their defence. consider all the data. Instead it only The list comprises Enzo Boschi, presilasted one hour, and it was not foldent of the National Institute for Geolowed by a joint statement but by a physics and Vulcanology (INGV) in press conference about which we Rome, the main institute in charge of Citizens blame scientists for not warning of the LAquila earthquake. were not informed. seismic monitoring; Giulio Selvaggi, The Civil Protection Agency director of the National Earthquake Center changed their minds after the committees responded by asking Boschi why he waited based at INGV; Franco Barberi, a volcanologist statements. In August 2009 they filed a for- six months before objecting to the nature of at the University of Roma Tre; Claudio Eva, a mal request asking a prosecutor to investigate. the meeting, and stated that Boschi never professor of earth physics at the University of LAquilas chief prosecutor, Alfredo Rossini, told explained what specific actions the departGenoa; Mauro Dolce, head of the seismic risk the Italian press on 3 June that this had left him ment should have taken to reduce the risks office in the Italian governments Civil Protec- no choice but to proceed with an investigation from a potential earthquake. tion Agency; and Gian Michele Calvi, director of and that his office had now gathered enough the European Centre for Training and Research information to indict the individuals named. Solidarity in Earthquake Engineering in Pavia. A governThe minutes of the 31 March meeting, Staff at INGV have signed a letter of solidarment official, Bernardo De Bernardinis, deputy though, reveal that at no point did any of the ity with Boschi and Selvaggi. Seismologists technical head of the Civil Protection Agency, is scientists say that there was no danger of a worldwide have also rallied to the defence of also under investigation. big quake. A major earthquake in the area is the scientists, with almost 4,000 researchers unlikely but cannot be ruled out, Boschi said. from 100 different countries signing a letter to Assigning blame Selvaggi is quoted as saying that in recent Giorgio Napolitano, Italys president, urging On 31 March 2009, all seven were in LAquila times some recent earthquakes have been pre- decision-makers to concentrate on earthquake at a meeting of the Major Risks Committee, an ceded by minor shocks days or weeks before- preparedness and risk mitigation rather than on expert group that advises the Civil Protection hand, but on the other hand many seismic prosecuting scientists for failing to do something Agency on the risks of natural disasters. Frequent swarms did not result in a major event. Eva they cannot do yet predict earthquakes. tremors had been recorded in the surrounding added that because LAquila is in a high-risk Barry Parsons, at the department of earth sciAbruzzo region, culminating in a magnitude-4.0 zone it is impossible to say with certainty that ences at the University of Oxford, who signed earthquake on 30 March. The meeting was con- there will be no large earthquake. Summing the letter, says that Italys maps of seismic risk vened by the service to ask the scientists whether up the meeting, Barberi said, there is no rea- are of the highest possible standard, and clearly a major earthquake was on its way. son to believe that a swarm of minor events show that Abruzzo is a very high-risk area. The Immediately after that meeting, De Bernardi- is a sure predictor of a major shock. All the proven and effective way of protecting populanis and Barberi, acting president of the commit- participants agreed that buildings in the area tions is by enforcing strict building codes, he tee, held a press conference in LAquila, where should be monitored urgently, to assess their says. Scientists are often asked the wrong quesDe Bernardinis told reporters that the scientific capacity to sustain a major shock. tion, which is when will the next earthquake community tells us there is no danger, because These are the only sensible statements any hit? The right question is how do we make sure there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The scientist could make at that point, says Susan it wont kill so many people when it hits? situation looks favorable. No other members Hough, a geophysicist at the US Geological Nicola Nosengo
ROME
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