Moving Averages

Year

This is problem 16-2 on page 606.

Yield
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

Weights for moving averages:

8.61 Weighted
8.14 Average
7.67
6.59
7.37
7.397
6.88
7.174
6.71
6.977
6.61
6.768
5.58
6.424
5.87
6.116
5.94
5.991
5.49
5.822
5.43
5.609

0.1

0.1

0.2

There is a regular decrease of approximately .02 per year.

0.3

0.3

Linear Trend Equations

Year

Time
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Net Sales
9239
12477
15470
19535
24156
30219
38434
45738
53553
58247
64816
73094
81511
90837
77349

This is problem 16-4 on page 609.

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.985301
R Square 0.970819
Adjusted R Square
0.968574
Standard Error
4840.708
Observations
15
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Time

y-hat =

-1817.65 +

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 1.01E+10 1.01E+10 432.4936 2.32E-11
13 3.05E+08 23432452
14 1.04E+10

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
-1817.65 2630.238 -0.69106 0.501683 -7499.93 3864.636 -7499.93 3864.636
6016.164 289.2876 20.79648 2.32E-11 5391.196 6641.132 5391.196 6641.132

6016.164 Time

Estimated Sales for 2008 (time=16) =

94440.98

Non-linear Trend Equations

Year

time

This is problem 16-8 on page 612.

Imports

1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

2009

11

92
101
112
124
135
149
163
180

Log-Impt
1.963788
2.004321
2.049218
2.093422
2.130334
2.173186
2.212188
2.255272

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999812
R Square 0.999624
Adjusted R Square
0.999561
Standard Error
0.002132
Observations
8
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
time

y-hat =

1.92333 +

Y-hat for 2009 =

Estimated imports =

2.380163
239.9731

SS
1 0.07244
6 2.73E-05
7 0.072467

MS
F
Significance F
0.07244 15930.57 1.67E-11
4.55E-06

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
1.92333 0.001662 1157.537
0.04153 0.000329 126.2164

P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

2.81E-17 1.919264 1.927396
1.67E-11 0.040725 0.042335

0.04153 Time
Since y-hat is a log function, 10 to

this power is the estimated import.

Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
1.919264 1.927396
0.040725 0.042335

Seasonal Indices
Year

Quarter
2006

2007

2008

Mean

Absent
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

4
10
7
3
5
12
9
4
6
16
12
4
7.666667

1
2
2006
2007 0.714286 1.627119
2008 0.657534 1.684211
Sum
1.37182 3.311329
Mean
0.68591 1.655665
Adjusted
0.689988 1.665508

This is problem 16-9 on page 618 of your book.

Moving
Centered Moving Specific
Average Average
Seasonal
6
6.25
6.75
7.25
7.5
7.75
8.75
9.5
9.5

6.125
6.5
7
7.375
7.625
8.25
9.125
9.5

3
1.142857
1.180328

4
0.461538462
0.484848485

2.323185
1.161593
1.168498

0.946386946
0.473193473
0.476006607

1.142857
0.461538
0.714286
1.627119
1.180328
0.484848
0.657534
1.684211

Correction Factor =

1.005945

Deseasonalizing Data
Year

Quarter
2006

This is problem 16-14 on page 622.

Time

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

2007

2008

2009

Sales
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Moving Average
5.3
4.1
6.8
6.7
4.8
3.8
5.6
6.8
4.3
3.8
5.7
6
5.6
4.6
6.4
5.9

5.725
5.6
5.525
5.225
5.25
5.125
5.125
5.15
4.95
5.275
5.475
5.65
5.625
5.633333333
6.15

CMA

5.6625
5.5625
5.375
5.2375
5.1875
5.125
5.1375
5.05
5.1125
5.375
5.5625
5.6375

Ratio to CMA Mean Index

1.200883002
1.204494382
0.893023256
0.725536993
1.079518072
1.326829268
0.836982968
0.752475248
1.114914425
1.11627907
1.006741573
0.815964523

1.131771833
1.215867573
0.912249266
0.764658921
1.131771833
1.215867573
0.912249266
0.764658921
1.131771833
1.215867573
0.912249266
0.764658921

Seasonal Index
0.906685032
0.75999491
1.124868629
1.20845143
0.906685032
0.75999491
1.124868629
1.20845143
0.906685032
0.75999491
1.124868629
1.20845143
0.906685032
0.75999491
1.124868629
1.20845143

Sales Deseasonalized
5.84547
5.394773
6.04515
5.544286
5.29401
5.000033
4.978359
5.627036
4.742551
5.000033
5.067258
4.965032
6.176345
6.052672
5.689553
4.882281

Correction Factor = 0.993900533

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.113761
R Square 0.012942
Adjusted R Square
-0.05756
Standard Error
0.482949
Observations
16

y-hat = 5.489 - 0.011 Time

Quarter
2010

Time
1
2
3
4

Prediction Seasonally Adjusted

17 5.29867 4.804225
18 5.287449 4.018434
19 5.276228 5.935063
20 5.265006 6.362504

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
1 0.042813
14 3.265356
15 3.308169

Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept
5.489435 0.253261
X Variable 1 -0.01122 0.026192

MS
F
Significance F
0.042813177 0.183559 0.674850969
0.233239701

t Stat
P-value
Lower 95%
21.67504857
3.6E-12 4.946245318
-0.428437514 0.674851 -0.06739682

Upper 95%
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
6.03262513
4.946245318 6.032625
0.044953905
-0.06739682 0.044954

Autocorrelation

$(000)
22
13
33
38
23
47
29
38
41
32
20
13
47
38
44
29
38
37
14
34
25
27
25
43
34

Commissions
Calls
139
132
144
142
142
142
138
139
144
134
135
137
146
146
144
147
144
149
131
144
132
132
127
154
147

This is problem 16-16 on page 627.

Driven
2,371
2,226
2,731
3,351
2,289
3,449
3,114
3,342
2,842
2,625
2,121
2,219
3,463
3,290
3,103
2,122
2,791
3,209
2,287
2,848
2,690
2,933
2,671
2,988
2,829

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.913930324
0.835268637
0.820293059
4.305574179
25

ANOVA
df

SS
MS
2 2067.925 1033.962
22 407.8353 18.53797
24
2475.76

F
55.77538405

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat

-101.3144497 18.76282 -5.39975
0.632332557 0.144902 4.363874
0.015689254 0.002222 7.060348

P-value
2.0126E-05
0.000248047
4.40104E-07

Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Calls
Driven

Significance F
2.42404E-09

Lower 95%
Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
-140.2261531 -62.4027 -140.226 -62.4027
0.331824926
0.93284 0.331825
0.93284
0.011080768 0.020298 0.011081 0.020298

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

Predicted $(000)
23.77899774
17.07772797
32.58879209
41.05146467
24.38947656
42.58901159
34.80378116
39.01326371
34.33029932
24.60240556
17.32735393
20.12956597
45.33799138
42.62375038
38.4251947
24.93103386
33.53014735
43.24991845
17.40243992
34.42443485
24.35754198
28.17003079
20.89778336
42.94425602
36.02333668
Test statistic is

Residuals
-1.779
-4.07773
0.411208
-3.05146
-1.38948
4.410988
-5.80378
-1.01326
6.669701
7.397594
2.672646
-7.12957
1.662009
-4.62375
5.574805
4.068966
4.469853
-6.24992
-3.40244
-0.42443
0.642458
-1.17003
4.102217
0.055744
-2.02334

Lagging
-1.779
-4.07773
0.411208
-3.05146
-1.38948
4.410988
-5.80378
-1.01326
6.669701
7.397594
2.672646
-7.12957
1.662009
-4.62375
5.574805
4.068966
4.469853
-6.24992
-3.40244
-0.42443
0.642458
-1.17003
4.102217
0.055744

Difference Squared
5.284160641
20.15054531
11.99010139
2.762204482
33.64539379
104.3415173
22.94905747
59.02794178
0.529829325
22.32513708
96.08336086
77.29178374
39.51076619
104.0105379
2.267551577
0.160709998
114.9134924
8.108133944
8.868514239
1.138260388
3.285115669
27.79659287
16.37394096
4.322576402
787.1372257

Residual Squared
3.164832967
16.62786536
0.169091946
9.311436618
1.9306451
19.45681873
33.68387577
1.026703343
44.48490715
54.72440347
7.143037016
50.8307109
2.762272651
21.37906757
31.07845409
16.55648541
19.97958272
39.06148061
11.57659744
0.180144939
0.412752307
1.36897204
16.82818132
0.003107391
4.093891339
407.8353182

1.930037

Since there are 2 independent variables, and n=25, we see the upper and lower limits for the Durbin Watson test are
.98 and 1.3. Since our test statistic is above the upper limit, we fail to reject the null hypothesis.
There is no evidence of autocorrrelation.