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September 2011 IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics To represent, lead and serve the airline industry
15%
% revenues
10%
5%
0%
-5%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
60 40
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
600 550
11.2
11.0
8.1 10.8
Single aisle aircraft (right scale) 8.0 7.9 7.8 10.4
10.6
7.7
10.2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 7.6
76%
74%
44%
42%
72%
70%
40%
38%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Deliveries
Other factors
Storage activity
150
1.0%
% change in airline seats
100
50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200
0.8%
0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% -0.4%
15%
10%
5%
50 45
40 35 30 2006 -10% Business confidence (left scale) 0%
-5%
-15%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
55
175
16
15
155 World trade (left scale)
145
14
135
13
125
12
11
165
5%
Net post-tax profits as % revenues
6%
5%
World GDP growth
4% 3% 2% 1%
4% 3% 2%
-1% -2% -3% 1% Net posttax profit margin 0% -1% -2% -3% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-4%
-5% -6%
16
14 12 10
Greece
Portugal Ireland
8
6 4 2 0 Jan-2007 France UK Germany Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Spain Italy
And the potential to better connect large cities, particularly in ASPAC and LATAM
5-10 mln 10-15 mln 15-20 mln > 20 mln Urban Popn. 2015 Source: UN, SRS Analyser
120
100
80
60
40
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Oct 2008
Apr 2010
Oct 2007
Oct 2009
Oct 2010
Apr 2007
Apr 2008
Apr 2009
Sep 2006
Mar 2006
Apr 2011
Weighted Score
Apr 2007
Apr 2008
Apr 2009
Sep 2006
Mar 2006
Apr 2011
Apr 2010
Oct 2007
Oct 2008
Oct 2009
Oct 2010
6.0
EBIT margin (left scale)
20 15
3.0
% revenues
10
5
0.0
0 -5
-3.0
-10 -15
-6.0
-20
-25 -30
-9.0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011F
2012F
US$ billion