Probability

Problem:

Solution:

A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green and red. What are the chances of landing on blue after spinning the spinner? What are the chances of landing on red? The chances of landing on blue are 1 in 4, or one fourth. The chances of landing on red are 1 in 4, or one fourth.

In order to measure probabilities, mathematicians have devised the following formula for finding the probability of an event. Probability Of An Event P(A) = The Number Of Ways Event A Can Occur The total number Of Possible Outcomes

Experiment 1:

A spinner has 4 equal sectors colored yellow, blue, green and red. After spinning the spinner, what is the probability of landing on each color? The possible outcomes of this experiment are yellow, blue, green, and red. P(yellow) P(blue) P(green) P(red) = # of ways to land on yellow = 1 total # of colors 4 = # of ways to land on blue = 1 total # of colors 4 = # of ways to land on green = 1 total # of colors 4 = # of ways to land on red total # of colors = 1 4

Outcomes: Probabilities:

Outcomes: Probabilities:

The possible outcomes of this experiment are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. P(1) = # of ways to roll a 1 total # of sides =1 6

P(2)

# of ways to roll a 2 total # of sides

=1 6

P(3)

# of ways to roll a 3 total # of sides

=1 6

P(4)

# of ways to roll a 4 total # of sides

=1 6

P(5)

# of ways to roll a 5 total # of sides

=1 6

P(6)

# of ways to roll a 6 total # of sides

=1 6

P(even)

# ways to roll an even number total # of sides

=3=1 6 2

P(odd)

= # ways to roll an odd number = 3 = 1 total # of sides 6 2

Experiment 2 illustrates the difference between an outcome and an event. A single outcome of this experiment is rolling a 1, or rolling a 2, or rolling a 3, etc. Rolling an even number (2, 4 or 6) is an event, and rolling an odd number (1, 3 or 5) is also an event. In Experiment 1 the probability of each outcome is always the same. The probability of landing on each color of the spinner is always one fourth. In Experiment 2, the probability of rolling each number on the die is always one sixth. In both of these experiments, the outcomes are equally likely to occur. Let's look at an experiment in which the outcomes are not equally likely. Enumeration

Here you will take a card from the deck and then replace it in the deck before picking the next card. You will pick a total of five cards. Assume the order in which they are picked is important.

1) How many groups of the five cards are possible? 2) What is the chance that all the cards are different (No two the exact same card)? 3) What is the probability of getting at least one ace?

ANSWERS 1) 380,204,032 different groups of the five cards are possible. There are 52 ways of picking the first card, 52 ways of picking the 2nd card, ... So there are 52*52*52*52*52 or (52)5 or 380,204,032 ways. 2) There is about a 82% chance that all the cards are different. If all the cards are different then there are 52 ways of picking the first card, 51 ways of picking the 2nd card, 50 ways of picking the 3rd card, ... So there are 52*51*50*49*48 or 311,875,200 ways of picking all different cards. There is a (311875200/380204032) or 0.82028.. or about an 82% chance.

3) There is about a 0.33 probability of getting at least one ace. There are 48*48*48*48*48 or (48)5 or 254,803,968 ways of getting NO aces. So there are (380,204,032 - 254,803,968) or 125400064 ways of getting at least one ace. There is a (125400064 /380204032) or 0.32982.. or about a 0.33 probability. Permutation and Combination Permutation : Permutation means arrangement of things. The word arrangement is used, if the order of things is considered. Combination: Combination means selection of things. The word selection is used, when the order of things has no importance. Example: Suppose we have to form a number of consisting of three digits using the digits 1,2,3,4, To form this number the digits have to be arranged. Different numbers will get formed depending upon the order in which we arrange the digits. This is an example of Permutation. Now suppose that we have to make a team of 11 players out of 20 players, This is an example of combination, because the order of players in the team will not result in a change in the team. No matter in which order we list out the players the team will remain the same! For a different team to be formed at least one player will have to be changed. Now let us look at two fundamental principles of counting: Addition rule : If an experiment can be performed in n ways, & another experiment can be performed in m ways then either of the two experiments can be performed in (m+n) ways. This rule can be extended to any finite number of experiments. Example: Suppose there are 3 doors in a room, 2 on one side and 1 on other side. A man want to go out from the room. Obviously he has 3 options for it. He can come out by door A or door B or door C.

Multiplication Rule : If a work can be done in m ways, another work can be done in n ways, then both of the operations can be performed in m x n ways. It can be extended to any finite number of operations. Example.: Suppose a man wants to cross-out a room, which has 2 doors on one side and 1 door on other side. He has 2 x 1 = 2 ways for it.

Factorial n : The product of first n natural numbers is denoted by n!. n! = n(n-1) (n-2) ..3.2.1. Ex. Note 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 =120 0! = 1

Proof n! =n, (n-1)!

Or

(n-1)! = [n x (n-1)!]/n = n! /n

Putting n = 1, we have O! = 1!/1 or 0 = 1 Permutation Number of permutations of n different things taken r at a time is given by:n

Pr

n!/(n-r)!

Proof:

Say we have n different things a1, a2, an.

Clearly the first place can be filled up in n ways. Number of things left after filling-up the first place = n-1 So the second-place can be filled-up in (n-1) ways. Now number of things left after filling-up the first and second places = n - 2 Now the third place can be filled-up in (n-2) ways. Thus number of ways of filling-up first-place = n Number of ways of filling-up second-place = n-1 Number of ways of filling-up third-place = n-2 Number of ways of filling-up r-th place = n (r-1) = n-r+1 By multiplication rule of counting, total no. of ways of filling up, first, second -- rth-place together :n (n-1) (n-2) ------------ (n-r+1)
n

Pr

Hence: = n (n-1)(n-2) --------------(n-r+1)

= [n(n-1)(n-2)----------(n-r+1)] [(n-r)(n-r-1)-----3.2.1.] / [(n-r)(n-r-1)] ----3.2.1

n

Pr = n!/(n-r)!

Number of permutations of n different things taken all at a time is given by:n

Pn

n!

Proof : Now we have n objects, and n-places. Number of ways of filling-up first-place = n Number of ways of filling-up second-place = n-1 Number of ways of filling-up third-place = n-2 Number of ways of filling-up r-th place, i.e. last place =1

Number of ways of filling-up first, second, --- n th place = n (n-1) (n-2) ------ 2.1.
n

Pn = n!

Concept. We have
n

Pr =

n!/n-r

Putting r = n, we have :n

Pr = n! / (n-r)
n

But

Pn = n!

Clearly it is possible, only when n! = 1 Hence it is proof that 0! = 1

Note : Factorial of negative-number is not defined. The expression 3! has no meaning.

The additive law of probabilities: given a set of mutually exclusive events, the probability of occurrence of one event or another event is equal to the sum of their separate probabilities Example: Place 100 marbles in a bag; 35 blue, 45 red, and 20 yellow. P(blue)=.35 P(red)=.45 P(yellow)=.20

What is the probability of choosing either a red or a yellow marble from the bag? P(red or yellow) = P(red)+ P(yellow) = .45+.20 = .65 The multiplicative law of probabilities: The probability of the joint occurrence of two or more independent events is the product of their individual probabilities Example: Say that the probability that I am in my office at any given moment of the typical school day is . 65 Also, say that the probability that someone is looking for me in my office at any given moment of the school day is .15 What is the probability that that during some particular moment, I am in my office and someone looks for me there? P(in office and someone looks) = P(in office) * P(someone looks) = .65 x .15 = .0975 Question: Say than Fred takes the car into work with a probability of .50, walks with a probability of .20, and takes public transit with a probability of .30

Barney, on the other hand, drives into work with a probability of .20, walks with a probability of . 65, and takes public transit with a probability of .15 What is the probability that Fred walked or drove to work and Barney walked or took public transit to work, assuming Fred and Barney's behaviour to be independent? Joint and Conditional Probabilities The joint probability of two events A & B is the likelihood that both events will occur and is denoted as P(A,B) When the two events are independent, the joint probability simply follows the multiplicative rule thus, P(A,B) = P(A) x P(B) When they are not independent, it gets a little trickier ... but we won't worry about that for now A conditional probability is the probability that some event (A) will occur, given that some other even (B) has occurred denoted as P(A|B) An Example: Drinking & Driving Accident No Accident Total Drinking Not Drinking Total 7 6 13 23 64 87 30 70 100

P(Drinking) = 30/100 = 0.3000 P(Accident) = 13/100 = 0.1300 P(Drinking, Accident) = P(Drinking) x P(Accident) = 0.30 x 0.13 = 0.0390 P(Drinking | Accident) = 7/13 = 0.5385 P(Accident | Drinking) = 7/30 = 0.2333 Factorials! We will soon discuss the concepts of permutations and combinations Prior to that, it is necessary to understand another mathematical symbol, the symbol ! (read `factorial') N! = (N) x (N-1) x (N-2) x ... x (1) 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120 3! = 3 x 2 x 1 = 6 Note: 0! = 1 Permutations If 3 people (p1, p2, & p3) entered a race, how many different finishing orders are possible? p1, p2, p3 p1, p3, p2 p2, p1, p3 p2, p3, p1 p3, p1, p2 p3, p2, p1

each of these is called a permutation of the three people, taken three at a time In permutation notation, this problem would be represented as using the following formula: and the answer could be solved

Another Permutation Example: Say that 5 people entered the previous race (p1 thru p5), but only the first two get prizes. How many different orderings of those first two positions are possible?

p1, p2, p3, p4, p5,

p2 p1 p1 p1 p1

p1, p2, p3, p4, p5,

p3 p3 p2 p2 p2

p1, p2, p3, p4, p5,

p4 p4 p4 p3 p3

p1, p2, p3, p4, p5,

p5 p5 p5 p5 p4

Note: When doing permutations, order is important! Think of the word "permutations" as "orderings" Combinations Sometimes, we are not concerned about ordering but only in how many ways certain things can be combined into groups For example, let's say we again have five people and we want to form a team of two people. How many different teams of two people can we from our original five?

1&2 2&4

1&3 2&5

1&4 3&4

1&5 3&5

2&3 4&5