Hasret Ercisli Eindhoven University of Technology

October 2011

1. Concepts of sustainability and energy supply

1.1 Energy indicators of countries
Table I-I : Energy Indicators for Europe, North America, Africa and China in 2008 GDP (PPP) Region/ Population GDP (billion GDP/ pop. TPES (billion 2000 Country (million) 2000 USD) ( 2000 USD) (Mtoe) USD) Europe 542.96 10610.04 13355.77 19541.19 1816.25 North America 337.86 12612.67 12791.78 37331.05 2550.49 Africa 984 876 2499 890.24 655 China 1333 2844 11054 2133.53 2131 TPES/GDP TPES/ GDP Elec. Cons. CO2 /pop. Region/ CO2/TPES (t (toe/000 (PPP) (toe/ /pop.(kWh (t CO2/ Country CO2 / toe) 2000 USD) 000 2000 USD) / capita) capita) Europe 0.17 0.14 6261 2.2 7.35 North America 0.2 0.2 13983 2.41 18.19 Africa 0.75 0.26 571 1.36 0.9 China 0.75 0.19 2471 3.07 4.92

CO2 emissions (Mt of CO2 ) 3989.02 6146.83 890 6550 CO2/GDP (kg CO2/ 2000 USD) 0.38 0.49 1.02 2.3

TPES/pop. (toe/ capita) 3.35 7.55 0.67 1.6 CO2/GDP (PPP) (kg CO2/ 2000 USD) 0.3 0.48 0.36 0.59

Energy indicators for different regions are illustrated in Table I-I. Regional statistical data is used to analyze the differences and evaluate the indicators. As seen, China has the highest population and is followed by Africa, Europe and North America respectively. On the other hand, when the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is taken into consideration, North America has the highest GDP and is followed by Europe and then China. It is clear that Africa is far behind than other regions in terms of GDP which implies the market value of all final goods and services produced in Africa in a year is much less than other stated regions. (1) To make accurate comparisons across countries, GDP calculated in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for year 2000 is used. The highest GDP (PPP) value belongs to Europe and it is followed by North America and China with slight differences comparing to the difference in between Africa and Europe. The outstanding contrast in GDP and GDP (PPP) ranking is the difference in Chinas values. These numbers implies that goods and services produced in China can be sold somehow cheaper than other countries, which might be connected with relatively cheap labor cost. In Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) values, North America takes the first place. China follows North America and then Europe is seen on the third place, and Africa stays behind them. TPES is calculated as sum of indigenous energy production and imports by subtracting exports and international marine bunkers. Figure 1.1 : World CO2 emissions by sector in 2008 (2) The stock changes and statistical discrepancies are also considered. (2) Therefore, it is the total energy supplied within the economy and North America seems to be having the highest energy supplied within its economy. China as having emerging economy drives the global demand higher and consequently it also has a considerably high energy supply to compete with other countries. Figure 1.2 : OECD transportation energy use by region, When it comes to CO2 emissions, China is 2007, 2025 and 2035 (quadrillion Btu) (4) ahead of North America and Europe follows it as seen

Hasret Ercisli Eindhoven University of Technology

October 2011

in Table I-I. For the burden of CO2 emissions, Africa seems to be innocent comparing to other regions. On the other hand, even though China is number one in CO2 emissions, CO2 emissions per capita shows that this results from their high population. North America is remarkably ahead of others in CO2 emissions per capita which because of having both industrial institutions and high individual energy consumption. Europe follows it with a value of less than half of North America which may stem from the fact that Europe has well-organized public transportation system considering transportation causes the significant CO 2 emissions and having commonly used public transportation help lowering CO 2 emissions. In Figure 1.1, World CO2 emissions by sector in 2008 (2) is shown and CO2 emissions stem from transport has significant contribution. In Figure 1.2, transportation energy use among the regions are presented and as seen North America far beyond than Europe which may give an explanation for North America having higher CO2 emissions. In this case, the difference of the CO2 emissions may also come from the fact that because of the geography in North America air travel is used rather than other transportation ways. In addition to this, Europe has well-organized public transportations system with trains, busses, subways where as people in North America have tendency to have their own car. According to the Table I-I, China is in the third place due to its high population, and Africa has the lowest CO2 emissions per capita comparing to other regions. Since CO2 emissions per capita values contains also the effect of economic growth coming from industrialization, CO2 emissions per GDP is also a significant parameter, which partially reduces the effect of economic growth in CO2 emissions. China is the number one in CO2 emissions per GDP and is followed by North America, Africa and Europe respectively. This implies that China needs to improve the reduction of CO 2 emissions which might be done by switching away from carbon intensive energy sources or increasing efficiency in energy production. The TPES per capita values show that North America is not only leader in individual consumption but also in energy supply per capita. High population of China keeps it in the third place behind Europe in TPES per capita values and Africa stays at the fourth place. The result is similar with GDP per capita which is generally accepted as an indicator of life standard in a region or country. North America and Europe have significantly high values in TPES per capita and GDP per capita because they have a productive developed industry which contributes to GDP and this contribution results in having greater energy supplies. The TPES per GDP values can be used to compare energy intensity of different regions and countries. Africa has the highest energy intensity which means converting energy into GDP costs higher in Africa than in other stated regions. The cost of energy conversion into GDP depends on so many factors such as economical productivity, weather, using energy efficient vehicles etc. Europe has the lowest TPES per GDP (PPP) value , since it contains so many countries with mild and temperate weather, has productive economy, and energy efficiency is considered as an important issue and has taken seriously in Europe. All of these lower the cost of converting energy to GDP. In this picture, the geographic, demographic and economic advantages of Europe distinguish it from Africa. The TPES per GDP values of China and America shows that they are in a better situation than Africa. (3) The whole scene shows that according to the indicators there is a prosperity league which consists of Europe and North America thanks to their advanced industrialized production and developed economies, and China tries to participate in but having trouble because of high population, while Africa remains behind of others because of several reasons which are explained above.

1.2 Concepts of sustainability applied

1.2.1 The ecological footprint The ecological footprint is defined to be a measure of the burden imposed by a certain population on nature. It represents how much land and water area is necessary for that population to sustain its resources consumption and waste discharge in the same level. (4) The concept was first introduced by William E. Rees and Mathis Wackernagel in 1990 at the University of British Columbia. It is based on the carrying capacity of the world which is related to what extent the nature can compensate the human consumption of natures

Hasret Ercisli Eindhoven University of Technology

October 2011

resources. (5) The ecological footprint concept is now used in worldwide by governments, agencies, individuals and institutions to check ecological resource usage and advance sustainable development. (6) The ecological footprint is not a solution for a sustainable environment but it is a concept which is very convenient to be used as an indicator for sustainability. In that concept, energy supply is considered sustainable as long as resources are not consumed faster than they are renewed, or wastes are not emitted faster than they are absorbed. Because, if these happen then the resources are depleted and eventually exhausted, consequently wastes accumulate in the biosphere. That situation violates the sustainability definition in the ecological footprint concept and leads to unsustainability. (7) There are bunch of online questionnaires to calculate ones ecological footprint. These questionnaires measure how many planet Earths would be required if everybody keeps having their life style. By using the eating, travelling, driving, shopping and other habits of an individual, it compares the burden of an individual to the Earths recovery capacity for the resources that is consumed by that individual. Global hectares is used as a measurement unit and the worlds total ecological footprint in global hectares per capita is calculated as 2.7 for 2007 while the total bio capacity of the world is calculated as 1.8 global hectares per capita according to 2010 edition of the global footprint network data which can be found in appendix A. (6) The ecological footprint concept reveals the consumption pattern differences in between western countries and developing countries. To illustrate the difference it can be stated that according to estimates by World Wildlife Fund (WWF), five planets would be required if all the people in the world had the same consumption patterns and lifestyles like the average North American. (8) In Figure 1.3, the footprint differences between high-income, middle-income and low-income countries are presented. As seen via footprint calculation, people in developed countries with high-income harm the environment significantly more than the people in the developing countries. At this point, it should be considered that the behaviors and habits of the humans cannot be easily decoupled from the economy. A CEO of a company cannot give up the using cell-phones and cars, and start to live with 10 more people to reduce the burden of his consumption. A drawback of ecological footprint concept, it only says how much consumption should be reduced, and there is no advising for a more sustainable world. Though it says people who are not using mobile phones, cars, and living with their extended family in a village are less harmful Figure 1.3 : Footprint by national average per person than people who are living in metropolitans and consume income, WWF, Living Planet Report, 2006 accordingly. This graph is a result of number of demographic, geographic, cultural and economic factors. Table I-II : Ecological Footprint (7) Population (million) World Africa China India Europe Netherlands United States of America 6.671.6 963.9 1.336.6 1.164.7 730.9 16.5 308.7 Income Group LM LM HI HI Ecological Footprint Total Ecological (Deficit) of Consumption Biocapacity or Reserve (global hectares per capita) 2.7 1.8 (0.9) 1.4 1.5 0.1 2.2 1.0 (1.2) 0.9 0.5 (0.4) 4.7 2.9 (1.8) 6.2 1.0 (5.2) 8.0 3.9 (4.1)

Hasret Ercisli Eindhoven University of Technology

October 2011

As seen in Table I-II and appendix A, there is a considerably high standard deviation exists. The ecological footprint of Africa is less than one fourth of Netherlands footprint. Since world has a certain carrying capacity, having countries with low ecological footprint can be accepted as an advantage. On the other hand, these countries also generally have substantial natural resources and suffer from the excessive use of natural resources by high-income countries. For these low-income countries, increasing their ecological footprint is a target to help them get rid of poverty, hunger and disease. However, this reveals a trade-off that their increasing access to natural resources will also lead an increase in the overall consumption of the world considering that these countries generally have growing population which will amplify the effect and makes it even more difficult to manage a sustainable world. From that point of view, a trade-off between preserving human well-being and protecting the worlds natural capital takes place. It is impossible to preserve human well-being without worlds natural capital and, vice and versa. (7) Another issue is that in emerging economies such as China and India, both the demand for goods and services, and population is increasing. As the wealth increases in developing countries, the ecological footprints are expected to increase as well. Although their footprint is at a sustainable level so far, when their population growth is taken into consideration it can be commented that in the near future it will not be possible to sustain that level of consumption with the effect of the increasing population and wealth.

1.2.2 Triple P approach Triple Bottom Line which is abbreviated as TBL or 3BL and also known as Triple P approach claims that in sustainable development there are three cornerstones i.e. 3Ps which are people, planet and profit. The concept is first formulated by John Elkington in his book Cannibals with Forks (Elkington, 1994-revised in 1998). In this approach, people stands for the social issues, planet stands for ecological issues and profit stands for economic issues including both countries and individuals. In Triple Bottom Line approach it is believed that fundamental basis of sustainable development lies in improving the three main aspects and finding a balance in between them. The triple P approach is widely used in public sector full accounting, as well as in business management. (5) Since Triple-P approach is applicable for both companies and national and international policies, its major contents which are people, planet and profit have different roles in each application, though the main understanding remains same. When we look at the majors of approach in details, people represents the social responsibility for a company and public awareness in a country. It is basically about caring for people and creating and keeping safe and healthy surroundings to improve human welfare. As another major, planet, represents the environmental issues which require carefully managing the consumption of energy considering the load on the environment, depletions of resources, climate change effects and the burden of waste and emissions. Last but not least, profit stands for the economic benefit presented for the host society. Since the word profit can remind the profit made by a company, it should be clearly stated that within TBL approach profit considers economic interests of both countries and individuals. (5) There are different viewpoints on the relation of 3 Ps due to priorities in a company or nation or international policies. In developed countries, increased wealth leads to public awareness in environmental issues which helps creating balance in Triple-P. In a developing country, increasing demands may drive the country to compensate its economy by sacrificing its environment or peoples life standards. In such a case, the situation implies that triple P is not balance. Considering triple bottom line approach, money alone cannot be a driving factor. All the ingredients which are people, planet and profit should work in an harmony. Although in Triple P approach a balance is required to be achieved for a sustainable development, implementation of the theory is not easy hence there is no common way to measure the benefits of planet and people and express the results in monetary terms as it is done for profit.

Hasret Ercisli Eindhoven University of Technology

October 2011

1.2.3 Energy Transition The limited amount of energy sources, rising oil prices, climate changes are major sustainability challenges which direct the world for achieving a sustainable society. Implementation of such a society may be obtained by a transition. A transition defines a radical change to serve for the needs of the societies which takes a long term (25-50 years). It requires co-operation of governing institutions, academic societies, nongovernmental organizations and co-evaluation of new technologies, changes in the market, developing policies, and public awareness. In addition to these, historical research considering energy transitions also should take place to estimate the future transitions in detail, since the existing systems are characterized and has deep roots. (9) (10) There are some certain obstacles which slower the transitions such as existing regulations and standards, having troubles in adaptation of lifestyles, problems in infrastructure, skills, and attracting interests of engineers. New technologies need protection at first because of their high cost and low efficiency. The sociotechnical situation usually alters slowly during the energy transition, as it was experienced in industrial revolution which changed the technological and social attitudes of people during the century. Industrial revolution led to transition of fundamental energy source from wood to coal, which had effects on society for sure with the large scale production and steam engines. (10) A new energy transition is required for the world to achieve a more sustainable society. As it is explained above, such a transition needs help initially since it would have high cost and low efficiency initially. To differentiate the energy transition applications for a sustainable world in developed and developing countries, two examples will be summarized here. One is renewable energy policy in the Netherlands and the other is an Figure 1.4 : Dutch Renewable Electricity Production (GWh per year) energy transition case in India. In the (10) Netherlands, The Environmental Policy Plan (1989) and the third Energy White Paper (1995) pointed out the climate change and environmental problems and a goal is set to obtain 10% renewable energy in 2020. In Figure 1.4, the renewable energy ratio is given for the electricity production. Energy saving and improving energy efficiency are also significant issues, though they can only work at a certain extent to reduce carbon emissions and then use of renewables should take place. Accordingly, Kyoto protocol was signed by Netherlands on 1998 and 8% of reduction in carbon emissions are committed for 2012. As a result of third Energy White Paper, required legislation and liberalization which gives the customers to choose their own energy supply were pursued by the Dutch government (In 1998 Electricity Law and then extension in 2004). In this example, the contribution of government,research centers, business sector, environmental institutions, and public awareness help to fulfill a common goal which is achieving a more sustainable world. Selection of promising technologies and supporting investments for sustainable energy to take the transition path is only possible with the contribution of all the parts. (5) (10) As an example from developing countries, Uttam Urja project from India is summarized here. It is a project took place in rural areas of India for a transition to renewable energy in the residential sector in which people usually obtain energy from traditional burning of biomass with low efficiency. The project claimed that instead of switching the existing traditional biomass burning technology into fuel or oil technology, using photovoltaic lighting technologies in rural areas of India resulted in a profitable business and contribution to achieving a sustainable world. Such an energy transition can be pursued only if the society, government and private sector work in harmony. It is concluded saying that low income communities do pay for the quality products if they are customized to their needs and such an energy transition for a more sustainable production and consumption is possible in rural areas of developing countries. (11)

Hasret Ercisli Eindhoven University of Technology

October 2011

In developed countries, energy transition for a sustainable society requires change in the lifestyles and changing the energy sources by trying to keep the energy consumption at a certain level which is only possible when governments, civil organizations, business sector, academic institutions all take the initiative. On the other hand, in developing countries the lifestyle of people is generally in an alteration phase so it can be considered as an advantage or a disadvantage depending on ones point of view. If developing countries with the contribution of their government, society, and academic organizations can manage to transform their relatively low standard of life into sustainable high quality life-style attitudes, they would contribute a lot for sustainable world.

References
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