Nagorno-Karabakh: Forward Security Realizations

Inayet Hadi

Ethno-Nationalist History of the Nagorno-Karabakh Region The ethno-nationalist conflict is between two sovereign States Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the third non-recognized State Nagorno-Karabakh. The Armenians constitute a majority in Republic of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. While the majority Azeri nation constitute the Azerbaijan Republic. Nagorno-Karabakh is 1.5 times the size of Rhode Island, and it was an autonomous province within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR) during the Soviet form of government from 1920 to 1991. The hostilities developed when the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast Assembly of Peoples Deputies (NKAOAPD) passed a resolution, requesting the Communist Central Committee based in Moscow to transfer Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR). The NKAOAPD voted in favor with more then eighty percent. After the initial passage of such a resolution by NKAOAPD to the Central Committee in Moscow, there followed events by other players that allowed the situation in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and NKAO to descend into anarchy and destructive chaos. Armenians View of Modern History The Armenians in general, view the last century as one of persecution and oppression caused by the Turkish governments. The first pogrom/holocaust was systematically carried out by the Turks against the Armenians under the collapsing Ottoman Empire close to the twentieth century. The Turkish authorities heighten[ed, the] levels of persecution and, from 1895 to 1896, with massacres of their Armenians subjects (Croissant, 1998, p. 5). Another large-scale pogrom occurred to the Armenians in 1915 to 1916 caused by the collapsing Ottoman Empire, and carried out by the Turks. In the second pogrom nearly 1.5 million Armenians were killed off systematically during World War One. The Turks saw the potential that Armenians could become a fifth column helping their enemy, the Russians. These two pogroms in a century had a major impact on the modern Armenians viewpoint. The Armenians living in the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) was made part of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR) from 1923 to until the Soviet Union dissolved. The majority of the people in NKAO were Armenians followed by the Azeris. The decision to include

NKAO into Azerbaijan SSR was made by Joseph Stalin in 1923, for the sole purpose of maintaining the policy of divide and conquer, which was successfully carried out by the Tsarist Russia before the communists (Leeuw, 2000, p. 155). The persecutions of the Armenians, according to Croissant (1998) the author of The ArmeniaAzerbaijan Conflict would reinvigorate the Armenians as a single, unique people with a common language, religion, and historical experience (p. 6). The pogroms against Armenians greatly influenced Armenia SSR to agree with the demands of NKAOAPD of reintegrating with Armenia SSR. This demand by NKAOAPD occurred a few years later after the policy of glasnost, or Openness under Mikhail S. Gorbachev, the Secretary-General of the Central Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) in 1985. The NKAOAPD passed a resolution requesting boarder reconfigurations of transferring NKAO to join Armenian SSR. This was agreed to by Armenia SSR, but rejected by the Azerbaijani SSR. The resolution created an maximum movement for ethno-nationalism among the Armenians living in the NKAO and Armenia SSR. This maximum movement for ethno-nationalism was surfaced due to the policies of Openness. The author of this article could not find information from 1923 to 1985 that would lead to a conclusion that the Azeris were persecuting the Armenians in the NKAO, but in fact the Armenians living in NKAO had their own legislative assembly, called the Assembly of Peoples Deputies of the NKAO. The Armenians enjoyed a clear majority in the Assembly, and mostly governed themselves as an autonomous province within the Azerbaijan SSR. Azerbaijanis view of History The Armenians view the Azerbaijanis as a Turkic tribe that invaded the area around 1750 AD (Croissant, p. 11). The Azerbaijanis view themselves to be descents of the Caucasian Albanian (not to be confused with the modern republic Albania), an ancient state whose territories corresponded roughly to those of present-day Azerbaijan (Croissant, p. 7). Conversely the Azeris view the Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh as descendant of the same ethnic groups as them, but during the seventh century AD with the spread of Islam, those people inhabiting the mountainous western half of the Albanian

region known as Karabakh remained Christian and integrated with the Armenians (Croissant, p. 7). Those living to the east of Karabakh converted to Islam. The diverse interpretations of history between the two ethnic groups, has naturally resulted in open warfare once the Soviet Union on December 31, 1991 dissolved. Political Context of the Ethno-Nationalist Movement During the Soviet Union rule over Armenia SSR and Azerbaijan SSR, the boarder configuration was not challenged but was accepted as permanent boundary between Armenian SSR and Azerbaijan SSR. The thorny issue of incorporating NKAO into Armenia SSR during those seventy years never waned in the popular imagination. Officially through the Soviet Central Governments channels there was no action on part of Armenia SSR or Azerbaijan SSR. The above statement can be true only after having examined the demonstrations that occurred in the capitols of Armenia SSR and NKAO during the policies of Openness. The open movement towards the reintegration of NKAO into Armenia SSR was the result of the policy of Openness, advocated by Gorbachev. Gorbachevs intention was to stimulate the Party and to mobilize support for reforms by allowing public debate of formerly taboo issue (Croissant, p. 26). The Soviets previous policies did not allow political debate or discussion, which was strictly controlled. The issue of NKAO reintegrating with the Armenia SSR before the Openness era was not allowed. The reason the Soviet Union did not allow the discussion of reconfiguration of territories between Armenia SSR and Azerbaijan SSR was there were other territorial conflicts that could have set a precedent, such as in Chechnya. With the opening of the Soviet Union political system due to Gorbachevs policies, gave the grass roots an opportunity to mobilize themselves for a particular goal(s). The goal of the Armenians in Armenia SSR was to have NKAO reattached to Armenia SSR. By 1987 mass rallies were held both in the capitol of Armenia SSR Yerevan and Stepanakert the capitol of NKAO. These rallies became more frequent, and in August [of 1987] a petition signed by more then 75,000 Armenians was sent to General-Secretary Gorbachev, pleading for the Soviet leader to reattach Mountainous Karabakh to Socialist Armenia (Croissant, p.

26). The Azerbaijanis matched these mass rallies as a response to Armenians demonstration calling for the annexation of Azeri land; emotions ran high on both sides (Croissant, p. 27). Political Grievances of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenia Soviet Socialist Republic On February 20, 1988 the political development that set the stage for the Hot War occurred in NKAO, when the Soviet of Peoples Deputies of Nagorno-Karabakh passed a resolution by a vote of 110-17 requesting the oblasts transfer to the Armenian SSR (Croissant, p. 27). This resolution would later on bring the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan into direct military conflict. This resolution was the first step in the Openness era that would galvanize the people in Armenia SSR that this was what was needed to insure a peaceful transfer of NKAO between the two SSR. Immediately after the passage of the resolution there were demonstrations of many hundred of thousands of Armenians in Yerevan, calling for the union with the NKAO (Croissant, p. 27). Three days later, the CPSU Central Committee issued a brief statement that after having examined the issue, that this action by NKAO was contradictory to the interests of the working people in Soviet Azerbaijan and Armenia and damage inter-ethnic relations (Croissant, p. 27). These political developments would have a transformative effect regarding the co-existence of inter-ethnic harmony. During that same month, from Feb. 27 to 29, crowds of Azeris responding to killings of two youths by Armenians went on a binge of destruction in Sumgait, mostly destroying Armenians properties and belongings (Croissant, p. 28). The effect of this riot was that thousands of Armenians began to leave for Armenian SSR and the Azeris living in Armenia SSR began to leave for Azerbaijan SSR. The Azeris feared reprisal attacks against them in Armenia SSR. According to Croissant (1998) both groups of refugees found themselves inhospitable living conditions. It would be these same refugees in Armenia and Azerbaijan whose plight would be used by hardliners to initiate fighting done communally within USSR, and later between the two republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan after the collapse of USSR. The Supreme Soviet of the Armenia SSR on June 15, 1988, passed a resolution calling for the USSR Supreme

Soviet to approve the annexation of Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia in accordance with the NKAOs request of 20 February (Croissant, p. 30). The Azerbaijan SSR Supreme Soviet Presidium condemned this action for annexation of Azerbaijan SSR territory as illegal and aggressive. The direct theory of ethnic political mobilization that would apply to the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh would be Primordialism. The theory states that an ethnic group would rather be treated ill by their own brethren, rather then well by a foreigner. The Armenians living in NKAO, under the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan SSR were allowed to govern their own way of life through the NKAOAPD. Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic The Azerbaijan SSR maintained that in order for NKAO to be transferred to Armenia SSR there was a mechanism in the USSR constitution article 78 that stated, The territory of a union republic may not be altered without its consent. The boundaries between union republics may be altered by mutual agreement of the union republics concerned, subject to confirmation by the USSR (Croissant, p. 28). Since the NKAO was not a union republic but an autonomous province within Azerbaijan SSR. Azerbaijan SSR could not recognize the request from NKAO in the first place, since it was unconstitutional. After the Armenia SSR had asked the USSR Supreme Soviet to approve the unification of NKAO, the Azerbaijan SSR immediately rejected the demand. During the same time period the Azerbaijan SSR government was accused by the Armenians in NKAO of increasing the Azeri population in NKAO. The Armenians vowed to strike in the capitol of NKAO until the Azeris were evicted from NKAO. This demand by the Armenians in NKAO led to a conflict that resulted in the deaths of thirty-three Armenians and sixteen Azeris. With this violence, the Soviet authorities declared a state of emergency in the region and deployed Ministry of Internal Affairs troops to Yerevan (Croissant, p. 31). Croissant (1998) asserts that the demonstrations by the Armenians to annex the land of Azerbaijan awoke and mobilized the nationalism of the Azeris, who were trying to maintain their republic territorial integrity (Croissant, p. 32).

Results of Armenia SSR and Azerbaijan SSR Grievances The inability of the Armenia SSR to seek the union of NKAO through constitutional means, the Armenians had lost hope in the USSR system (Croissant, p. 29). The movement asking for the unification of NKAO with Armenia SSR was led by the Karabakh Committee, which was composed of eleven Armenian intellectuals who called for the unification of NKAO with Armenia SSR through demonstrations and strikes. The Karabakh Committee became the de facto opposition to the Communist Party, because of the wide support the Karabakh Committee could mobilize on the issue of Nogorno Karabakh. With mass demonstrations being mobilized by the Karabakh Committee in 1988, again the USSR Presidium headed by Gorbachev, passed a resolution affirming its first brief response to the NKAO request to join Armenia SSR, but this time, the Presidium also promised the acceleration of the development aid in NKAO. This action by the USSR Presidium was welcomed and placated the mainstream Armenians. The hardcore Armenians represented by the intellectuals in the Karabakh Committee were not satisfied. They wanted a complete NKAO unification with Armenia SSR. NKAOs constitutional exercise to be united with Armenia SSR turned into awaking the conscious of nationalism both for the Armenians and the Azeris. While the Azeris wanted to maintain their territorial integrity, at the same time, the Armenians were trying to incorporate NKAO into its territory, using historical, linguistic and religious reasoning. During this process several major riots occurred that displayed the Azeris living in Armenia to flee for their lives to Azerbaijan, and the Armenians living in Azerbaijanis fled for their lives to Armenia during the periodic violence of 1988 to 1991. The refugees migrations and living conditions to either to Azerbaijan and Armenia were inhospitable. It would be these refugees plight that the hardliners would incite their nation-states to War. The bloody war between the Republic of Armenia and Azerbaijan lasted from1992 to 1994. Nations-States War Over Nagorno-Karabakh On August 5 1990, the first non-communist government in Armenia SSR came into power headed by Levon Ter-Petrosyan the leader of the Karabakh Committee. Ter-Petrosyan also becomes the

first President of Republic of Armenia. He declared in decree dated August 23, 1990 that its intention to become a sovereign and independent statealso cited the earlier proclamation of a United Armenia as the basis for Nagorno-Karabakhs inclusion as an integral part of the new Armenian Republic (Croissant, p. 39). After the Moscow coup detat failed led by the conservative elements in the Communist Party of USSR. Ter-Petrosyan declared independence for Armenia SSR on September 13, 1991 as Republic of Armenia. A month before Armenia declared its independence on August 30, 1991 the Azerbaijan Supreme Soviets adopted a declaration of independence (Croissant, p. 43). Before independence Nagorno-Karabakh was an administrative issue, after independence the issue over NKAO turned into a war between the two nation-states. With the dissolution of the USSR, there were many heavy weapons and ammunitions that were procured from the disbanded Soviet Armies both by the Armenians and the Azeris. According to figures collected by Croissant (1998) the Armenians had access to 250 tanks, 350 armored personnel carriers (APCs), 350 artillery pieces and 7 attack helicopters. And Azerbaijan on its territory had 400 tanks, 720 APCs, 470 artillery pieces, 14 attack helicopters and 90 fighter-bombers. The military equipment the Azeris were left with should have predicted an easy victory for Azerbaijan. Before the cease-fire was signed in 1994 the well-organized and better-trained Armenians had taken over NKAO, while at the same time occupying six provinces of Azerbaijan. The hot war between 1992 and 1994 had created millions of refugees, and an estimated thirty thousands lives were lost. Thomas de Waal (2003) the author of Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan through Peace and War writes that after the seize-fire agreement between Republic of Armenia and Republic of Azerbaijan, [Nagorno-] Karabakh had become a province of Armenia. Karabakh Armenians were entitled to carry Armenian passports. Its currency was the Armenian dram (p. 246). But most importantly, according to the author was Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was displaying the facade of Statehood.

Forward Security Realizations to the Nagorno-Karabakh Region At the beginning of the hot war between Republic of Armenia and Republic of Azerbaijan was when USSR dissolved on December 31, 1991. After the hot war began in 1992 there have been peace negotiations headed by the Iranians, the Russians and Turkmenistan jointly, which all failed due to the mistrust of one party over the other. The most successful group of nations that were instrumental in stopping the fighting was the Minsk Group co-chaired by France, U.S. and Russia. The Minsk Group is comprised of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Italy, the Russian Federation, Sweden, Turkey, the United States, and Nogorno-Karabakh, which is present to the talks under OSCE but not as official party to the talks. The Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE, later OSCE) created the Minsk Group. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe OSCE had been instrumental in reaching a cease-fire in 1994 that has held to this day (Kaufman, 2003, p. 212). The peace process is stifled as each side to the conflict is able to point to different principles such as the right to Self-Determination of People and the Inviolability of Frontiers enshrined in the Helsinki Final Act for creating CSCE, the predecessor to OSCE. The Armenians are adhering to the first principles while the Azerbaijanis are referring to the second principle. The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) is an independent, nonpartisan federal institution created by Congress to promote the prevention, management, and peaceful resolution of international conflicts (Carley, 1998, p. online). In a report published by the USIP titled Nagorno-Karabakh Searching for a Solution, gives the timing of sequence as the major reason for the 1994 cease-fire not leading to a political solution. In the report, USIP states Azerbaijan is demanding the withdrawal of Armenian troops from occupied Azeri lands before any discussion of Nagorno-Karabakhs status; Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh are calling for a resolution on the regions status before any consideration of troops with drawals [sic] from Azeri lands. This problem was solved with Minsk Group in 1997 offering a phased approach, which was accepted both by Armenia and Azerbaijan but was rejected by NagornoKarabakh, because it did not offer security guarantee for Nagorno-Karabakhs independence.

Recommendations & Possible Solutions Presented by Author My recommendations to the Minsk Group would be characterized by three guiding principles. The right of the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh to be legally recognized as a nation-state among the community of States. With the understanding that Azeris who were forced out of their homes must either have a just compensation or the right to return to N-K without the right to vote for the President. This would not mean being excluded for voting for all other State political bodies or participating in all either elected or appointed State bodies. The second principles would be that either Armenians or Azeris who were forced from either Armenia or Azerbaijan to return to their homes with full rights, or be compensated justly. The third principle would be the disarmament of the three governments, with no Russian military bases on the Armenian, Azerbaijan, or Nagorno-Karabakh territories. The United Nations Organization UNO as a whole would guarantee each nation states external security, excluding internal policing and boarder patrols. The three parties to the conflict would agree the compensation issue with the financial support from the USA and other EU contributing nations. The drawback to this plan is that other ethnic group within Azerbaijan would want to have their own nation-states. The solution to this problem would be to grant maximum political, cultural, economic autonomy to those regions with the regions budget and internal boarder patrols being controlled by Baku.

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