Sixth industrial revolution

T
HREE fundamental forces are conspiring to change the way we know information communication. In a years time, fibre optic speed will have doubled, as will storage capacity. In a year and half, the processing power of computers will have doubled. It is, says technology strategist and futurist Pieter Geldenhuys, a world of near abundance, which changes the entire ball game. The mistake most people make is to think that the World Wide Web is the Internet. It isnt: Web traffic constitutes only 20 percent of overall Internet traffic. The Internet Protocol has become so dominant that all forms of communication, voice, video and teleconferencing use it as the basis of communication. Since David Isenbergs seminal paper The Rise of the Stupid Network, everyone in the know has realised that the following has, and in some countries will still, come to fruition: Networks will become black boxes: dumb pipes, with intelligence spread to the machines at their peripheries. Past networks, including the phone system, have been smart and narrowband. Broadband flourishes with the reverse. The near universal acceptance of the Internet Protocol as basis of all communication, and the availability of processing power, bandwidth and storage space, had led to a shift of power from the centre of the network to the edges. Now, questions are being asked about the long-term strategic direction of operators. Do they shed 50 percent of their workforce and focus only on providing connectivity at the lowest price point possible, or do they leverage what is left of their sphere of influence to create new revenue opportunities in adjacent markets? The big losers are going to be the networks; the big winners are going to be the content controllers on the Internet, like Google, and the handset operating system manufacturers, like Apple and its iPhone. Well end up with cellphone companies and landline networks that will have to look at other means of revenue, because the money is going to go to the content aggregators, not the suppliers of the link to the Internet, Geldenhuys says. But this doesnt mean all is lost. Theres still space for innovation, as the entire cellphone environment stands on the brink of a revolution brought on by the speed of wireless communication. Geldenhuys sees the advent of 4G

Issue 4 Telkom technology Supplement 2011

The content controllers on the Internet, like Google, are going to be the big winners; the networks will be the losers.
communications, or LTE Advanced, providing 1 gig per second data transfer on a wireless network base station in less than four to five years, driven by the migration of TV and the opening up of the golden frequency between 700 and 850 megahertz. In the older GSM networks, there was a 40 to 50km reach between towers. The slower processing power on the handsets and the TDM modulation techniques limited bandwidth, but there was good coverage and building penetration because of the low radio frequency. The faster processing power of processers now enables modulation techniques like OFDM providing peak spectral efficiency of up to 30 bits per second per hertz (b/sec/Hz) on the downlink, compared with 1.92b/sec/Hz for GSM. For the layman, this means that 4G networks will be able to stream eight high-definition movies at the same time over the cellular network. Rolling out the technology will be far more economical than 3G, because of the lower frequencies available for 4G technology. The freeing up of the airwaves will be a hotly contested political battle, he warns, because this golden frequency will be worth billions to whoever gets to operate it. Ericsson called this the start of the sixth industrial revolution, and they might not be that far off. LTE has the capacity to alter the economics of telecommunications in a country. One of the major battles will be the battle of the building. Network companies will want to own the building by providing it with fibre connectivity, and then connect everything and everyone within the building to the Internet Protocol. Wireless coverage (wi-fi or 3G piconets) will change the building into a large wireless hot spot, integrating wired and wireless telephony. You will dial in as normal, but the internal network will take the call and route it wherever it must go through IP, rendering the PABX (switchboard) obsolete. IP or Internet Protocol phones will allow staff to speak as often as they like to one another in the building for free. At home, appliances are becoming more intelligent and will be controlled by a smartphones or tablets. The technology is there: you can stream movies off your iPad on to the TV via wi-fi, track your car, watch the security cameras in your garden all from your lounge. The real advantage is that you can already buy these technologies off the shelf and do it yourself for a fraction of the price that companies are charging to do individual services, such as vehicle tracking. Augmented reality the projecting of another universe on to your current one is already a technology that is available. Simply download Layar or Wikitude on your smartphone to get a taste of whats to come. You can even get video cameras built into sunglasses Geldenhuys bought a pair in Bruma Lake, east of Joburg, for R600. I went to a Hong Kong technology trade fair in 2008. I just switched on the camera and walked about talking to people. When I got back, I just rewound it to do whatever research I needed. The reality of the ubiquitous and invisible Internet is that a universe of information is at our fingertips, just beyond the reach of our human senses. All you need to access it is simple interface called a cellphone, he says. And that is perhaps the biggest single change of all, the advent of total individual freedom of choice and freedom of access to whatever you want, when you want. l Pieter Geldenhuys is a futurist at the Innovation Agency (www.innova tionagency.com), and the director of the Institute for Technology Strategy and Innovation, aligned with the Potchefstroom Business School.

Intelligent applications, connected communications

Bashier Sallie, the Senior Managing Executive of Telkom SAs Wholesale and Network division: The possibilities are endless. Every device in the home will have a SIM card and speak to each other. We will have connected homes and connected cities and with it the golden era for fixed-line operators will return because of data growth and the need for cheap, reliable and stable networks. We have already seen the start of the connected revolution, he says, through tablets that connect to smartphones that connect through normal telephone networks. We have Kindles and other e-readers connected to publishers and able to download books at the press of the key. In the future, the cellphone will be the bank card, doing electric funds transfers at the till. Theo van Zyl, Telkoms Senior Manager for Product Development: All devices in the home will be intelligent and communicate via the Internet. Fridges will automatically order stock when they are depleted. This kind of intelligent application will be replicated in all the devices we use, he says, until our habits and needs inform the programs and the moment we act in a different way, certain actions will be triggered. If you forget to switch on a home alarm, he says, it will do it for you. The same will apply to household irrigation schemes and switching on lights remotely. The new TV sets will be wi-fienabled. You will connect your tablet to it and share what you want with the family, like photographs or letters, even home movies. The seeds of the future have already been sown, he says. Communication with your banker or your insurer is already all electronic. Schools are forcing parents to get connected and use the school communicator app interfacing with the school portal, which supplies the newsletter, creates a forum for parents and tells the kids what their homework is.

BASHIER SALLIE

THEO VAN ZYL

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