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PacWest Consulting Partners 7941 Katy Freeway, Suite 309 Houston, TX 77024
Agenda
PacWests Market Intelligence Services Pressure Pumping Market Overview Frac Crew Deployment Bakken Case Study Questions
Client Confidential
Client Confidential
Decision Makers
Client Confidential
Comprehensive Methodology
PacWest uses a multi-pronged approach to develop its market intelligence offerings. The team:
1) Gathers and reviews all information available publicly and via proprietary databases 2) Engages its diverse network of industry contacts to gather real-time intelligence 3) Processes and synthesizes raw information into actionable intelligence
Primary Research
Many of the insights are based on: Surveys from operators and suppliers In-depth interviews and conversations with operators and suppliers Industry-leading experts and technical specialists
Secondary Research
These sources are regularly consulted: Market research and reports Company annual reports, 10-Ks, 10-Qs Speeches and presentations by company leadership and other industry experts Analyst reports from leading banks
Budgetary estimates
PacWest proprietary databases
Government data
Client Confidential
Agenda
PacWests Market Intelligence Services Pressure Pumping Market Overview Frac Crew Deployment Bakken Case Study Questions
Client Confidential
The under-supply is not expected to be relieved until late 2012 or early 2013
Source: CIBC World Markets; Macquarie; PacWest analysis Client Confidential PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 7
The tight supply market is driving up prices for pressure pumping prices, with cost escalation most severe in hot liquids plays
Forecast of Pressure Pumping Price Increases (2011 2014)
35%
30%
Annual Cost Increase 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
29.3% 26.1%
19.4%
5.3%
6.0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: PacWest Shale Market Research Service, 2011 Q2 Release Client Confidential
Manufacturers of pressure pumping equipment are operating at full capacity and are experiencing order backlogs up to 1-yr for critical parts
Frac Pump Backlogs
Weir SPM
Backlog currently extends into 2012 Q1, with lead times close to 1 year New Destiny pump line at capacity for 2011 as of late July Growth driven largely by OE orders, which were 180% ahead of plan; now account for 55% of input vs. 36% 1 year ago Early 2012 customer discussions positive; potential for frac pump business to be $500MM+ in H2
Source: PacWest analysis Client Confidential
Gardner Denver
Backlog current extends into 2012 Q1 and backlogs are currently at record highs Have seen 100%+ YoY increase in both pump and fluid end orders
FMC
Backlog extends into 2012 with nearly 40% of 2012 capacity tentatively committed, though expect to see some of 2012 demand released in H2 Fluid Control backlog currently at a record $421MM Currently looking at 9-12 month lead time for pumps and 2-4 weeks for flow iron
Current OE/AM mix stands around 75/25; expect to be 60/40 in 1-2 years
Management is concerned frac unit and component, particularly engines, constraints holding back pressure pumping market growth
Manufacturers are responding with major capital investments to fuel capacity expansions, and other actions to satisfy demand
Frac Pump Capacity Expansion Initiatives
Weir SPM
Capital Investments
In midst of $40MM upgrade to Ft. Worth facility; increase pump capacity 30-35% by Apr 2012 Just announced incremental $75MM investment; increase pump capacity additional 20-25% by EOY 2012 Implemented lean mfg. and reengineered processes Extended H1 capacity 20-25% through outsourcing components, reliance on 3rd party machining
Client Confidential
Gardner Denver
Halfway through $20MM upgrade of Fort Worth and Tulsa pump manufacturing facilities; doubling capacity by Apr 2012 Aggressively increasing aftermarket fluid end capacity; already doubled YoY and plan on another doubling in next year Implemented lean mfg. to increase throughput
FMC
Unclear what portion of a $200MM spend is going towards pump capacity expansion Portion of pump capacity expansions coming online in H2, with full completion targeted for year-end Flowline capacity expansions coming online in H2 Expanding use of machine tools around the world to extend frac pump capacity
New Entrants
AXON: launching 2nd generation frac pump and expanding capacity to support it OFM: recently expanded mfg. facility 40-60% J-Mac: recently launched frac pump line Dixie/MSI: recently launched frac pump Southwest/Global Energy: potentially launching frac pump
Other Initiatives
On the demand side, US Land rig count has rebounded dramatically since 2009, driving demand of pressure pumping services
US Land Rig Count (Aug 2009 Aug 2011)
2,500
2,000
Land Rigs
1,500
1,000
500
0 Nov-09 Nov-10 Sep-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 May-10 Feb-11 May-11 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-10 Dec-09 Dec-10 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jun-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-09 Aug-10 Jun-11 Jul-11
The focus on oily plays is evident in the US Land rig count: oil drilling activity finally overtook gas drilling activity in early 2011
US Land Rig Count Oil vs. Gas (Aug 2009 Aug 2011)
100% 90% 80% Percentage of Land Rigs 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sep-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 Nov-09 Nov-10 Feb-11 Jul-10 Dec-09 Dec-10 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jun-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-10 Mar-11 May-11 Aug-09 Aug-10 Jun-11 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-11
Oil Gas
The dominance of unconventionals is also evident in the US Land rig count: increases in directional drilling has driven the rig count
US Land Rig Count Dir/Hor vs Vert (Aug 2009 Aug 2011)
2,500
Directional/Horizontal
2,000
Vertical
Land Rigs
1,500
1,000
500
0 Sep-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 Nov-09 Nov-10 Feb-11 Jul-10 Dec-09 Dec-10 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jun-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-10 Mar-11 May-11 Aug-09 Aug-10 Jun-11 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-11
2,089
1,000
500
The Marcellus, Bakken, and Eagle Ford account for nearly 30% of US Land drilling activity
Rig Count: Key Plays (Aug 2009 Aug 2011)
2,500
2,000
Land Rigs
1,500
Other US Land (69% of US Land) California shales (2% of US Land) Appalachian (8% of US Land) Bakken (10% of US Land) Eagle Ford (12% of US Land)
1,000
500
0 Sep-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 Nov-09 Nov-10 Feb-11 Jul-10 Dec-09 Dec-10 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jun-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-10 Mar-11 May-11 Aug-09 Aug-10 Jun-11 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-11
Eagle Ford and Bakken are in a major growth phase, California is still an emerging play, and the Marcellus is a relatively mature play
Rig Count Growth Rate: Key Plays (Aug 2009 Aug 2011)
350% 300% 250% 200% Land Rigs 150% 100% 50% 0% Nov-09 Nov-10 Sep-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 May-10 Feb-11 May-11 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-10 Dec-09 Dec-10 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jun-10 Oct-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 -50% Mar-11 Aug-09 Aug-10 Jun-11 Jul-11
Eagle Ford (+309%) Bakken (+276%) Appalachian (+50%) California shales (+258%) US Land (+100%)
Liquids-rich Eagle Ford is projected to be one of the most active plays in the country
Eagle Ford Rig Count & Forecast
Rig Count Dir/Hor vs Vertical
Land Rigs Land Rigs
250
Directional/Horizontal
300
Vertical
50
0 Feb-10 Dec-09 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jun-10 Oct-09 Aug-09 Aug-10 Oct-10 Jun-11 2011 2012 2013 2014
Frac Tech, BJ, and SLB are the dominant pumpers in 2011 H1 in the Eagle Ford, while Chesapeake is the dominant operator
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
30%
Market Share 25% 20% 15% 10% 1% 5% 0% 17% 16%
8%
6% 4% 2% 0%
6% 5%
3% 3% 3% 3%
2% 2% 2% 1%
1% 1%
Chesapeake Petrohawk Anadarko El Paso Shell Penn Pioneer Cabot XTO Enervest Talisman Forest Plains Chevron Hess
PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 18
Analysts expect higher gas prices through 2014, which will drive significant rig count growth in the Appalachian
Appalachian Rig Count & Forecast
Rig Count Dir/Hor vs Vertical
Land Rigs Land Rigs
250
60
40 20 0 Feb-10 Feb-11 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jun-10 Dec-09 Aug-09 Aug-10 Dec-10 Oct-09 Oct-10 Jun-11
2011
2012
2013
2014
Halliburton is the dominant pumper in 2011 H1 in the Marcellus, while Chesapeake is again the dominant operator
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS
Market Share
Market Share
5%4%
4%3%3%
1%
0%
3%3%2%
2%
1%0%
Chesapeake Cabot Talisman Anadarko Shell EQT Atlas Exco Range Williams Chevron Seneca EOG Southwes Energy PDC XTO
PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 20
California shales are still a question mark in the mind of most analysts and they have not yet factored in its impact on the market
California Shale* Rig Count & Forecast
Rig Count Dir/Hor vs Vertical
Land Rigs Land Rigs
Dec-
Aug-
Feb-10
Aug-
Dec-
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Directional/Horizontal Vertical
30 25 20 15 10
30
5
Feb-11 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jun-10 Oct-09 Oct-10 Jun-11 0 2011 2012 2013 2014
Note: California Shale rig count is focused on counties in shale plays. It includes Colusa, Fresno, Kern, Kings, Los Angeles, and Sutter counties, although the majority of drilling activity is in Kern county. Source: PacWest Analysis; Macquarie; Baker Hughes Client Confidential PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 21
Bakken continues to experience growth challenges, which will be discussed later in this presentation
Bakken Rig Count & Forecast
Rig Count Dir/Hor vs Vertical
Land Rigs Land Rigs
200
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Feb-10 Dec-09 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jun-10 Oct-09 Aug-09 Aug-10 Oct-10 Jun-11
Directional/Horizontal Vertical
220
2011
2012
2013
2014
Agenda
PacWests Market Intelligence Services Pressure Pumping Market Overview Frac Crew Deployment Bakken Case Study Questions
Client Confidential
Staffing experienced crews is a critical challenge faced by pressure pumping service providers
The Quality vs. Quantity Dilemma
Completion increases = HHP increases = Frac crew increases = Need for trained staff!! North American pressure pumping industry is expanding rapidly (~20% YoY increase 2010-2011) and needs to add new hires to meet expansion targets Major increases in completions require major increases in frac crews, for example: - Typical 25K HHP frac fleet in the Bakken requires 2-3 crews of 30 staff = 60 90 experienced employees
- PacWest forecasts an increase in frac fleets in the Bakken from 38 fleets (May 2011) to 52 fleets (year-end 2011) = 840-1,260 experienced employees
Fact: Critical driver of oilfield safety = experienced staff Problem: There are no more experienced field workers left; pumpers are forced to manage deployment of large numbers of inexperienced employees
Client Confidential
Pressure pumpers are deploying equipment and staff from other regions when possible, but there are limitations to this approach
Frac Fleet Redeployment Few Existing Deployment Options
Pumpers are deploying staff and equipment from nearby plays However, the prevalence of dedicated contracts and take-or-pay relationships is constraining the number of available staff and equipment for redeployment
For example: Calfrac has redeployed frac fleets from its Colorado base to the Bakken but it still does not have a sufficient facilities for major maintenance so it drives frac trucks back to Colorado every 1-2 months to service equipment
Client Confidential
Most pressure pumpers depend heavily on non-local employees to meet staffing needs
Pressure Pumping flex crews
Flex crews = non-local employees working at a local base on a temporary basis Flex crews typically spend 2-3 weeks working 17 hours or more per day and then have 1-2 weeks off before returning to the local base All service companies have reported using flex crews to some degree - Larger companies (e.g. Halliburton) often meet half of their staffing needs with flex crews in some areas
- Smaller new entrants are sometimes forced to depend entirely on flex crews
Companies trying to hire locally, but there are few suitable potential hires in many hot areas (e.g. Eagle Ford, Bakken) Pumpers have admitted that they will never be able to eliminate flex crews entirely in more remote areas
Client Confidential
There are significant differences in the commitment of pressure pumping companies to safety
Employee Training & Management
Training
Staff Deployment
More important is how companies balance the deployment of inexperienced employees vs. experienced employees in a crew Good = Majority experienced employees + minority inexperienced, which provides mentors upon which greenhats can depend Bad = Minority experienced + majority inexperienced a recipe for disaster
All pressure pumpers have training programs to orient greenhats to the oilfield and provide them with the basic knowledge and skills to safely and effectively operate frac equipment Programs vary widely in structure, duration, and effectiveness However, no training programs can substitute for solid field experience
For example: A former Sanjel employee in the Bakken reports often being deployed in crews where the majority of staff had less than two months of oilfield experience - Outcome: Multiple cases of splitting iron and debilitating injuries
Client Confidential PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 27
Agenda
PacWests Market Intelligence Services Pressure Pumping Market Overview Frac Crew Deployment Bakken Case Study Questions
Client Confidential
Overwhelming demand in the Bakken is expected to lead to a significant under-supply of pressure pumping capacity for 2011
Sensitivity Analysis of 2011 Bakken Pressure Pumping Capacity Utilization
250% Pressure Pumping Capacity Utilization 241%
42%
2011 completions
161% 28% 121% 21%
100% utilization of 2011 capacity
35%
150%
100%
50%
100%
Demand will continue to outpace supply for pressure pumping capacity into 2012 in the Bakken
Sensitivity Analysis of 2012 Bakken Pressure Pumping Capacity Utilization
200% Pressure Pumping Capacity Utilization 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 30% 40% 50% Capacity Growth (2011 2012) 60% 114% 109% 104% 100% 159% 45% 152%
100% utilization of 2012 capacity
43%
42%
40%
Note: Sensitivity analysis assumes an average of 20 frac stages / well in 2012, a conservative estimate
Source: CIBC World Markets; Macquarie; PacWest analysis Client Confidential PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 30
Drilling & completion activity in the Bakken is up considerably and continued increases are forecast
Bakken Rig Count (Aug 2009 Aug 2011)
200 180 160 140 Rig Count 120 100 184
80
60 49
40
20
Forecast Bakken D&C Activity Metric 2011 2012 2013 Average rig count 180 200 210 Drilling days / well 32 31 30 New completions 2,053 2,355 2,555 Feb-10 Sep-10 Nov-09 Nov-10 Feb-11 Jul-10 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jun-10 Mar-10 May-10 Mar-11 May-11 Jan-10 Dec-09 Aug-10 Dec-10 Oct-09 Oct-10 Jan-11
0
Aug-09 Sep-09
Sources: Baker Hughes, Macquarie, CIBC World Markets, PacWest analysis Client Confidential
Pressure pumping companies are significantly expanding their capacity in the Bakken in response to increased demand
Bakken Pressure Pumping Supply (May 2011)
Halliburton Sanjel Schlumberger Frac Tech BJ Services Superior Calfrac Pumpco Cudd 0 1 2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2 2 2 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 3 5 3 Bakken Pressure Pumping Equipment Current dedicated 25 Current spot 14 Fleets Total current 38 Future additions 14 Total year-end 52 Current 773 HHP Year-end 1,074 7 4 1 1 2 5 2
Note: Spot fleets are not necessarily available; only implies not in long-term dedicated contract; little to no scheduling availability remains for most spot fleets in the 2011
but supply chain constraints are holding back the deployment of new equipment and the ability to consistently supply pumping services
Bakken Supply Chain Constraints Logistics
Railway (primarily BNSF) import capacity into the Bakken is limited for all products, particularly proppant due to the large volumes required (1 railcar has capacity of 200K lbs of proppant; average 3 million lbs frac job requires 15 railcars)
Proppant
Global proppant consumption has reached unprecedented levels and most domestic producers are essentially sold out of product Greatest constraint is in 20/40 raw sand
Guar
Demand has reached record highs and the guar supply chain is not highly responsive due to its length (90% of raw guar seed grown in rural India)
Equipment
Manufacturers of pumping equipment reporting order backlogs of up to 1 year
Labor
Local labor force in the Bakken is limited and unemployment is extremely low
Client Confidential PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 33
Bakken pressure pumping supply has been unable to keep pace with demand so well completion backlogs are growing
Days Required for D&C in North Dakota
Days between Well Spud and Completion 180 120 90 60 0 85 76 67 103 80 81 107 172 96 72 57 99 95 98 103 118
87
50
81
82 67
93
Sources: Montana Board of Oil & Gas; North Dakota Industrial Commission; PacWest analysis Client Confidential
Anschutz/OXY Continental Resources Whiting Oil & Gas Zenergy Brigham Oil & Gas ConocoPhillips Hess Slawson Newfield EOG Resources Marathon Oasis Petroleum 0 1
7
45 29 12 17 13 48 17 15
7 25 15 6 7 5 18 6 5 10 7 6
3.0 3.4
3.6 4.5 2 3 4 5
34
25 27
Note: Well backlog is best estimate based on data from Montana and North Dakota oil/gas regulators; rig count is from April 2011 Sources: Montana Board of Oil & Gas; North Dakota Industrial Commission; PacWest analysis Client Confidential PacWest 2011 | All rights reserved | 35
The Bakken supply/demand imbalance is not expected to improve drastically anytime soon so operators must contract accordingly
Implications for Contracting Strategy in the Bakken
It is important to be proactive to develop long-term solutions rather than short-term fixes, while considering other infrastructure challenges Operators should include terms in contract to incentivize for safety improvements, performance improvement Avoid safety incidents by forcing service companies to provide their best crews, when possible
Consider using greenhat clauses or crew continuity incentives, similar to drilling contracts
Client Confidential
Agenda
PacWests Market Intelligence Services Pressure Pumping Market Overview Frac Crew Deployment Bakken Case Study Questions
Client Confidential