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Timothy A. Volk, Thomas Buchholz, Philip Castellano, Lawrence Abrahamson and Lawrence Smart SUNY-ESF, Syracuse, NY
Heating the Northeast, April 29 - 30, 2009 Nashua, NH
SUNY - ESF Rebecca Allmond Dr. Tom Amidon Dr. Thomas Buchholz Dr. Kim Cameron Doug Daley Dr. Rene Germain Dr. Valerie Luzadis Dr. Lawrence Smart Dr. Ed White Graduate Students Godfrey Ofezu Amos Quaye numerous undergraduate students Academic Partners and Collaborators Agrifood and Biosciences Institute Cornell University Middlebury College SUNY Delhi University of Guelph University of Saskatchewan Industrial Partners Agricultural Development Services Case New Holland Honeywell International Dr. Larry Abrahamson Dr. Cathy Catranis Michael Kelleher Dr. Arthur Stipanovic
Michelle Serapiglia
Canadian Forest Service Michigan State University Montreal Botanical Gardens University of Connecticut University of Minnesota
Overview
Sources of woody biomass in NY
Woody biomass from forests - a NY example Willow energy crop production and economics
Effect of establishment costs, yield and policies
technically available from timberland in NY? Make use of FIA and TPO data sources Report on a county by county basis
Socio-economic Potential
Amount of technically available resource will vary
due to a range of socioeconomic factors: Perceptions and assessments of sustainability Market prices for other energy sources (coal, oil, natural gas) Prices for biomass for other uses (i.e. pulp logs, saw logs, pellets, firewood, mulch etc.) Landowner opinions and management objectives Incentives and policies that support renewable energy
The Research Foundation of SUNY
Why Willow?
High biomass production
Three-year old willow in Tully, NY
The Research Foundation of SUNY
potential Produces uniform feedstock Easily established with unrooted cuttings Resprouts vigorously after each harvest Limited insect and pest problems Wide range of genetic variability
Willow yields are typically 4 odt/acre/yr in the first rotation and 5 odt/ac/yr in subsequent rotations
The Research Foundation of SUNY
Next Graph
500
US $/acre (undiscounted)
-500
-1,000
-1,500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Year
16 17 18 19 20
21 22
3,000 2,000
US $/acre
Optimistic (Revenues +10%; Expenditures -10%) Pessimistic (Revenues -10%; Expenditures +10%)
1,000 0
-1,000 -2,000 0 2 4 6 8 10
Year
12
14
16
18
20
22
NPV: $209/acre
The Research Foundation of SUNY
IRR: 8%
7% 14%
31%
Harvest Fertilizer
3% 24% 3% 18%
14 12 10 8 6 Project's IRR in %
1,500
1,000
4 2
0 0.25
Changes in establishment costs and IRR with changes planting stock costs
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Planting Equipment
Step planter
Egedal planter
Limited control options result in outbreaks of hard to control weeds like yellow nut sedge
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Harvester Development
Dormant season, single pass
cut and chip harvesting system based on New Holland (NH) forage harvester Trials over the past two years with a NH forage harvester and specially designed cutting head CNH has developing a new Short-Rotation-Coppice (SRC) header Field trials have been run in NY and WA and Europe Improvements in harvesting efficiency are being assessed
New CNH Short-Rotation Coppice header being tested in central NY in March 2009
The Research Foundation of SUNY
10 5 0 -5 -10
Biomass growth rate in odt/ac/year 3.0 5.1 7.1 9.1
significant impact on IRR Base case scenario includes ~4 odt acre-1 yr-1 in first rotation and 5 odt acre-1 yr-1 in subsequent rotations Initial traditional breeding efforts have increased yields by 20 30%
4,000
Optimistic (Revenues +10%; Expenditures -10%)
3,000
US $/acre
2,000 1,000 0
-1,000 -2,000 0 2 4 6 8 10
Year
12
14
16
18
20
22
NPV: $942/acre
The Research Foundation of SUNY
IRR: 20%
Incentives
Investment is about $900/acre
$550/acre establishment grant + $35/acre for ten years
Incentives
What acreage is needed to begin to capture
economies of scale Use 20,000 acres as an example Incentive cost for 20,000 acres over several years is $18,000,000 Small cost to launch a new home grown source of reneweable energy that has the potential to generate hundreds of new jobs, reduce greenhouse gases, generate taxes, increase landscape biodiversity etc.
NPV - $1,036/acre
The Research Foundation of SUNY
IRR 26.8%
quick assessment of biomass production potential Interview with landowners about interest in biomass production
Summary
A large amount of woody biomass is technically
available from forests in the NE U.S. Potential for large amounts of woody biomass from dedicated energy crops like willow biomass Support both forestry and agriculture is needed to develop these opportunities Need a much better understanding of the social and economic barriers to transform technical potential into woody biomass for heat, power, fuels and products
Acknowledgements
Honeywell International NY Farm Viability Institute NYS Dept. Agriculture and Markets NYS Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) NYSTAR USDA CSREES USDA Rural Development
The Research Foundation of SUNY