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EmpireCorridorIntercityHighSpeedRail Model PTTimetablingTest

Ajit Makhija,ColbyBrown
November2011

NewYorkEmpireCorridorHighSpeedRail
TIERIEnvironmentalImpactStatement(EIS)studyjointly preparedbytheFederalRailroadAdministration(FRA)and NewYorkStateDepartmentofTransportation(NYSDOT) ToevaluateEmpireCorridorHighSpeedRailserviceprogram connectingPennStationinNewYorkCitywithNiagaraFalls, NewYork(NiagaraCounty).

EmpireCorridorOverview

463milecorridor NewYorkCitytoNiagaraFalls

ModelingMethodology
PivotorIncrementalFourStepmodelstructure Calculatechangeingeneralizedcosts,ratherthan absolutegeneralizedcost PerformModeSplitandDestinationchoices using incrementalnested multinomiallogit (MNL)basedon compositecostschanges Assignmentoftrips

ModelFramework
SkimExtraction
Calculatechangeinzonetozonegeneralizedcosts,ratherthanabsolutegeneralized cost

ModeSplitandDestinationChoice:IncrementalNestedMNL
Weightravelcostcomponents andcomparetobaseyear& fares Modeand/orDestination Shiftbasedoncomposite utilityofatrippurpose Factortriporiginsand destinationsbasedongrowth Applyreviseddestinationand modepercentages

AssignmentofPersonTrips
Highway Rail Bus Air

Generalizedcost(GC)forModel
Zonetozonegeneralizedcosts extractedusingCube VoyagerHIGHWAY&PUBLICTRANSPORTprogram Forhighway,GCisameasureoftraveltime,distance, toll cost Forpublictransport,GCisameasureofinvehicle time, outvehicle time,fare cost Monetaryvariablesconvertedtominutesusingvalueof time(VOT)forbusinessand othertrips

CubeVoyagerPlatform

DefinedCorridorwithPT&AccessEgressLines

PublicTransport(PT)ModuleBackground
Headwaybased Assumestravelerarriveata stoprandomlyandtakethe firstserviceavailable Suitableformodelingurban areawithhighfrequency services Inappropriateforinfrequent servicesorwhenservicesare coordinated(switchfrom conventionalrailtohighspeed rail) Schedulebased (timetabling) ModelsthePTservicewith actualscheduling(timetabling) Specifictodaytypeandtime period Timetablinggivesabetter representationoftravelchoice andjourneytime/costs

HighSpeedRailModelAlternatives
79mph 90mph 110mph 125mph(bothPTModules) 160mph(bothPTModules) 220mph

ModelApplicationResults:Headwaybased
RailRidershipandTravelTimeReductionTrends
220mph

160mph

RailRidership

125mph 110mph 90mph 79mph

nobuild

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

PercentageReductioninTravelTime

%DifferenceinRidershipbtw.Headwayand SchedulebasedPTmodule
2.00%

Rail
1.50%

Rail %DifferenceinRidership
1.00%

Rail Bus

0.50%

Air Air Car

0.00%

Car

Car

0.50%

Bus Air

Bus

1.00%

125mph

Alternatives

160mph

Conclusion
Preliminaryridershipforecastingtestwascarriedout betweenheadway andschedule basedPTmoduleusing empirecorridorintercitymodel Resultsshowthatforhourly highspeedrailservice, schedule basedmoduleproducesreducedrail ridership forboththespeedalternatives,byapproximately1%, whencomparedtoheadwaybasedmodule Athigherfrequencies,thecurrentincrementalmodel structureproducesmoreorlesssimilarridershipresults forboththePTmodules

Thank you for your attention!

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