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Ajit Makhija,ColbyBrown
November2011
NewYorkEmpireCorridorHighSpeedRail
TIERIEnvironmentalImpactStatement(EIS)studyjointly preparedbytheFederalRailroadAdministration(FRA)and NewYorkStateDepartmentofTransportation(NYSDOT) ToevaluateEmpireCorridorHighSpeedRailserviceprogram connectingPennStationinNewYorkCitywithNiagaraFalls, NewYork(NiagaraCounty).
EmpireCorridorOverview
463milecorridor NewYorkCitytoNiagaraFalls
ModelingMethodology
PivotorIncrementalFourStepmodelstructure Calculatechangeingeneralizedcosts,ratherthan absolutegeneralizedcost PerformModeSplitandDestinationchoices using incrementalnested multinomiallogit (MNL)basedon compositecostschanges Assignmentoftrips
ModelFramework
SkimExtraction
Calculatechangeinzonetozonegeneralizedcosts,ratherthanabsolutegeneralized cost
ModeSplitandDestinationChoice:IncrementalNestedMNL
Weightravelcostcomponents andcomparetobaseyear& fares Modeand/orDestination Shiftbasedoncomposite utilityofatrippurpose Factortriporiginsand destinationsbasedongrowth Applyreviseddestinationand modepercentages
AssignmentofPersonTrips
Highway Rail Bus Air
Generalizedcost(GC)forModel
Zonetozonegeneralizedcosts extractedusingCube VoyagerHIGHWAY&PUBLICTRANSPORTprogram Forhighway,GCisameasureoftraveltime,distance, toll cost Forpublictransport,GCisameasureofinvehicle time, outvehicle time,fare cost Monetaryvariablesconvertedtominutesusingvalueof time(VOT)forbusinessand othertrips
CubeVoyagerPlatform
DefinedCorridorwithPT&AccessEgressLines
PublicTransport(PT)ModuleBackground
Headwaybased Assumestravelerarriveata stoprandomlyandtakethe firstserviceavailable Suitableformodelingurban areawithhighfrequency services Inappropriateforinfrequent servicesorwhenservicesare coordinated(switchfrom conventionalrailtohighspeed rail) Schedulebased (timetabling) ModelsthePTservicewith actualscheduling(timetabling) Specifictodaytypeandtime period Timetablinggivesabetter representationoftravelchoice andjourneytime/costs
HighSpeedRailModelAlternatives
79mph 90mph 110mph 125mph(bothPTModules) 160mph(bothPTModules) 220mph
ModelApplicationResults:Headwaybased
RailRidershipandTravelTimeReductionTrends
220mph
160mph
RailRidership
nobuild
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
PercentageReductioninTravelTime
%DifferenceinRidershipbtw.Headwayand SchedulebasedPTmodule
2.00%
Rail
1.50%
Rail %DifferenceinRidership
1.00%
Rail Bus
0.50%
0.00%
Car
Car
0.50%
Bus Air
Bus
1.00%
125mph
Alternatives
160mph
Conclusion
Preliminaryridershipforecastingtestwascarriedout betweenheadway andschedule basedPTmoduleusing empirecorridorintercitymodel Resultsshowthatforhourly highspeedrailservice, schedule basedmoduleproducesreducedrail ridership forboththespeedalternatives,byapproximately1%, whencomparedtoheadwaybasedmodule Athigherfrequencies,thecurrentincrementalmodel structureproducesmoreorlesssimilarridershipresults forboththePTmodules