Montgomery County Council

Montgomery County, Maryland Economic Outlook, 2020

Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University November 8, 2011

($ Bil

15 Largest Metro Areas 2010 GRP

1,281

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

736 532 425 385 374 347 326 314

272 258 231 200 198 191

Source: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

15 Largest Metro Areas GRP Percent Change 2007-10

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6

Source: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Job Change Since 2000

15 Largest Job Markets
500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500

(000s)

Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Share of Washington Area Economy 1970-2010

50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10%

Northern Virginia

Suburban MD

D.C.

2010 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy

Non-Local Business 12.0 % Other Federal 15.7 %

Federal 34.9% Local Serving Activities 36.6%

Procurement 19.2%

Other: Health/Education, Media

Annual Job Change Washington MSA

000s Annual Data

Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011

80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80

2002 2004 2006 2008 Feb Apr

Apr

Apr

Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Jun

Oct

Jun

Oct

Jun

Aug

Aug

Aug

Dec

Feb

Dec

Feb

Job Change by Sector Sept 2010 Sept 2011 Washington MSA

(000s)
Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util.
12 0 3 2 -3 1 -5 -4 5 -2 -4 0 1

Total = 8,500

-20

-10

10

20

30

Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

2010 Structure of the Montgomery County Economy $69.5 billion (2010$)

Non-Local Business 11.2 % Other Federal 16.5%

Federal 29.7% Other Local Business 42.2%

Procurement 13.2%

Total Local Business 46.0%

Local Hosp. 3.8%

Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland

000s Annual Data

Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40

2002 2004 2006 2008

Oct

Oct

Apr

Aug

Apr

Aug

Apr

Aug

Source: BLS March 2011 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Feb

Dec

Feb

Dec

Feb

Jun

Jun

Jun

Job Change by Sector Sept 2010 Sept 2011 Suburban Maryland

(000s)
Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util.
-2 2 5 0 -4 1 -4 0 0 0 -1 0 0

Total - 3,400

-20

-10

10

20

30

Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Unemployment Rate
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
6.3 SMD 6.1 MSA 4.9 - NVA 11.0 DC 9.1 U.S.

Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Comparative Economic Performance

Montgomery & Fairfax Counties, Washington Area: 1990-2010 Characteristics Economic Growth* Job Growth Unemployment 1990 Unemployment 2010 Federal Spending, 1990 Payroll, 1990 Procurement, 1990 Federal Spending, 2010 Payroll, 2010 Procurement, 2010
*gross county product

MC 87.3% 15.4% 2.5% 5.6% $5.8b $1.9b $2.0b $20.7b $5.1b $9.2b

FX 132.5% 57.5% 2.0% 4.9% $5.6b $1.0b $3.1b $33.5b $3.3b $25.1b

WMSA 99.5% 31.7% 3.2% 6.2% $42.6 b $17.1b $12.6b $169.0b $42.7b $81.2b

Montgomery County Growth Trends: 1990-2010

Characteristics Population Median Age Dependency Ratio Job Growth Jobs/Person GCP* Average Salary (2010$s)
*gross county product

1990 761,671 32.7 1:2.23 403,812 5.3/10 $33.36b $44,702

2010 971,777 38.5 1:1.75 465,963 4.8/10 $62.49b $67,161

% Change 27.6 17.7 - 21.5 15.4 - 9.4 87.3 50.2

MC Employment Structure, 2010

Sector Professional and Bus. Services Government Education and Health Services Subtotal Retail Trade* Leisure and Hospitality Financial Services Other Services Construction Information Services Manufacturing Total
*includes transportation and utilities

Number of Jobs 109,035 86,299 63,250 258,584 59,654 37,591 32,623 25,434 24,806 14,685 12,585 465,963

Percent 23.4 18.5 13.6 55.5 12.8 8.1 7.0 5.5 5.3 3.2 2.7 100.0

Economic Forecast, 2010-2020

Metric 2020 Gross Regional Product $577.5 b Metro Area Job Growth 4.292 m Replacement Job Openings MC Gross County Product $94.0 b MC Population Growth 1,080,815 MC Job Growth 565,133 Prof. & Bus. Services 140,826 Education and Health Ser. 81,799 Subtotal* 222,625 Other Major Sectors** 183,938 Increase $152.5 b 503.1k 901.4k $24.5 b 109,038 92,514 31,791 18,549 50,340 29,264 Percent 35.9 13.3 23.8 35.2 11.2 19.6 29.2 29.3 18.9

*37% of job base projected to generate 55.7% of Montgomery Countys new jobs. **retail trade, financial services, leisure and hospitality services, construction

2020 Structure of the Montgomery County Economy $94.0 billion (2010$)

Non-Local Business 17.3 % Other Federal 13.4% Federal 24.2% Procurement 10.8%

Other Local Business 38.4%

Total Local Business 43.9%

Local Hosp. 4.5%

Challenges Facing Montgomery County

Having a sufficient supply and quality of labor to support future job growth; Having sufficient housing resourcesin number, variety of types, and range of costs both for renters and owners to house an Increasing share of the countys workforce thereby reducing the economys dependence on commuters to fill the countys jobs; and, Being competitive with other area jurisdictions in terms of location and operating costs and business friendly reputation.

Housing Montgomery Countys Future Workforce, Low Forecast

Income Single-family Less than $50K 3,897 $50K - $100K 5,317 $100K -$150K 3,497 $150K + 990 Total Housing Units 13,701 Multi-family 12,846 10,986 2,327 150 26,309 Total 16,743 16,303 5,824 1,140 40,010 Percent 41.8 40.7 14.6 2.9 100.0

COG Round 8 Housing Unit Forecast = 37,500

Housing Montgomery Countys Future Workforce, High Forecast

Income Single-family Less than $50K 5,995 $50K - $100K 8,180 $100K -$150K 5,379 $150K + 1,523 Total Housing Units 21,077 Multi-family 19,762 16,902 3,580 230 40,474 Total 25,757 25,082 8,959 1,753 61,551 Percent 41.8 40.7 14.6 2.8 100.0

COG Round 8 Housing Unit Forecast = 37,500

cra.gmu.edu
GMU/Cardinal Bank 20th Annual Economic Forecasting Conference Tysons Ritz Carlton January 13, 2012