SPWLA 48

th
Annual Logging Symposium, June 3-6, 2007
RESERVOIR ZONATION AND PERMEABILITY ESTIMATION:
A BAYESIAN APPROACH
Adolfo DWindt. PDVSA E&P
Copyright 2007, held jointly by the Society of Petrophysicists and Well Log
Analysts (SPWLA) and the submitting authors.
This paper was prepared for presentation at the SPWLA 48
th
Annual Logging
Symposiumheld in Austin, Texas, United States, June 3-6, 2007.
1
ABSTRACT
We propose a new hybrid approach to compute
unbiased permeability estimates in uncored wells using
the theory of Hydraulic Flow Units (HFU) based on the
Carman-Kozeny equation. First, a linear regression
scheme is applied to obtain the optimal number of HFU
present in core data. Next, the results obtained are used
as input for the nonlinear optimization scheme based on
the probability plot from which statistical parameters of
each population are obtained. Subsequently, Bayes rule
is applied for clustering core data into its respective
HFU. Finally, an algorithm based on Bayesian
inference is applied to predict permeability in uncored
wells.
The methodology is applied to a Venezuelan sandstone
reservoir and to a Middle East sandstone reservoir.
Application of the methodology allows permeability
prediction in cored wells with correlation coefficients
above 0.95 for the field cases under analysis.
Permeability profiles in uncored wells compare well
with pressure transient test results.
Among primary applications are better productivity
index assessments, enhanced petrophysical evaluations,
and improved reservoir simulation models. Coupling of
Nonlinear optimization with Bayesian inference proves
a robust way for performing data clustering providing
unbiased estimations.
INTRODUCTION
Any reservoir description program should address the
problem of describing the pore space geometry by
subdividing the reservoir into units and assign to them
values for those rock parameters being described
(Haldoresen, 1986). Core analysis provides a
fundamental source of reservoir information because it
is the only physical specimen recovered from the
reservoir suited for comprehensive rock description at a
pore level (microscopic level). Unfortunately, core
measurements are both expensive and scarce. On the
other hand, wireline logs, representing a larger volume
of investigation (macroscopic level), is one of the most
abundant and economical sources of reservoir
information being the primary tool for analysis and
reservoir description. Permeability is one of the most
important petrophysical parameter and it is difficult to
estimate in the absence of core measurements.
Therefore, relating pore throat attributes (obtained only
form core measurements) to wireline log measurements
is always a challenge.
Amaefule et al. (1996) proposed the hydraulic flow unit
concept to be used as a principle for subdividing
reservoir in different rock types reflecting different
pore-throat attributes. In this regard, the FZI (flow zone
indicator) represents the primary parameter for
identifying those rock types constituting the foundation
of this reservoir characterization tool.
Many techniques have successfully been applied in
order to both identify the number of clusters present in
core data and to properly assign data into its respective
cluster. Among these techniques can be mentioned the
following: cluster analysis, probability plots
(Abbaszadeh et al., 1996), neural networks (Aminian et
al., 2003), multivariable regression (Guo et al., 2005),
fuzzy logic (Cuddy et al., 2000), and multi-linear
graphical clustering (Al-Ajmi et al., 2000). Abbaszadeh
et al. (1996) suggested the use of non-linear
optimization. However, it has not been applied before
to determine the number of HFU present in core data
and their statistical properties. Kapur et al., (2000)
combined wireline logs and petrologic description via
Bayes Theorem in order to produce probability logs for
facies identification. A similar approach is applied in
this paper. The objective of this paper is to determine
HFU by applying non-linear optimization coupled with
the Bayes rule to perform data clustering.
Subsequently HFU is inferred in uncored wells via a
bayesian inversion scheme.
HYDRAULIC FLOWUNIT CONCEPT
A flow unit is defined as a volume of rock where pore
throat properties of the porous media that govern
hydraulic character of the rock are consistently
predictable and significantly different from those of
other rocks (Abbaszadeh et al., 1996). A reservoir
UUU
SPWLA 48
th
Annual Logging Symposium, June 3-6, 2007
ought to be divided into flow units to properly describe
its performance when it is subject to different
production schemes. Two approaches have been
developed in the industry for performing this
subdivision: a geological point of view and engineering
point of view. Here it will be used the engineering
approach based on dynamic definitions. Mohammed
(2006) suggested the use of the concept of engineering
facies or dynamic rock type in order to avoid any
confusion with the geological facies definition used in
the geological approach.
Based on fundamental theory, assuming a bundle of
straight capillary tubes, and introducing the concept of
mean hydraulic radius (Bird et al., 1960), permeability
can be estimated by:
2 e
mh
k r
2
|
=
t
(1)
where is effective porosity, tortuosity, and r
e
|
mh
is
the mean hydraulic radius.
Equation (1) provides a relationship between
permeability and mean hydraulic radius showing its
strong relationship with pore geometry. By combining
porosity, r
mh
, and surface area per unit grain volume
(S
gv
) with equation (1), the Carman-Kozeny model for a
generalized geometry is obtained (Amaefule et al.,
1993)
( )
3
e
2 2 2
gv
e
1
k
F S
1
|
=
t
|
(2)
where k is given in m
2
and S
gv
is in m
-1
. The
effective porosity is obtained either from well logs or
core measurements.
From (1) follows that
2
mh
e
k
r = t
|
(3)
The mean hydraulic radius has a strong correlation with
different petrophysical parameters such as (Amaefule,
et al., 1988): stress corrected porosity and permeability,
capillary pressure derived pore throat radius, formation
factor, cation exchange capacity, saturation exponent,
and relative permeability among others. Additionally,
the mean hydraulic radius can be correlated with the
characteristic length used in the definition of Reynolds
number for porous media (Jones, 1987). Thus, the
selection of
e
k/|
as a predictor of pore space
attributes is both useful and physically sound. Based on
these observations and from equation (3), equation (2)
is rearranged to give the following:
1
0 0314
1
e
e e s gv
k
.
F S
|
=
| | t
(4)
The units of k are md. Now, a reservoir quality index
(RQI) is defined by
e
k
RQI 0.0314 =
|
(5)
Also, the Flow Zone Indicator (FZI) is defined as
s gv
1
FZI
F S
=
t
(6)
RQI and FZI are given in m. According to equations
(5) and (6), (4) is rewritten as:
z
RQI FZI = | (7)
and
1
e
z
e
|
| =
|
(8)
Thus, in a log-log plot, core data corresponding to a
particular hydraulic flow unit will plot as a unit slope
straight line with intersect at |
z
=1 equals to FZI.
Having obtained FZI we are in capability of
determining intrinsic petrophysical properties of a given
hydraulic unit and, by doing so, a reservoir can be
divided into a discrete number of hydraulic units. Once
a HFU or engineering facie is identified, permeability is
calculated by (Amaefule et al., 1993):
( )
3
2
2
1014
1
e
e
k FZI
|
=
|
<
(9)
The Carman-Kozeny equation provides good estimates
for well-sorted samples from which the average particle
size diameter is known (Wu, 2004). However,
knowledge of grain diameter and specific surface area
is critical in the Carman-Kozeny model. The latter
represents a major limitation of such model. Also,
applicability of the Carman-Kozeny model is
questionable in the presence of diagenesis (Abbaszadeh
et al., 2000).
2
SPWLA 48
th
Annual Logging Symposium, June 3-6, 2007
One of the advantages of the engineering facies
definition over the geological definition of facies is that
the FZI has a strong correlation with irreducible water
saturation, specific surface, grain size, and mineral
content (Svirsky et al., 2004). Moreover, J-Function
derived water saturation values can be obtained using
the FZI concept (Desouky, 2003) and be successfully
used for allowing accurate 3D reservoir modeling
(Obeida et al., 2005).
Despite its limitations, the Carman-Kozeny model has
been widely applied both in sandstone and in
carbonates with consistent results. Nevertheless, when
reservoir rock deviates from the capillary bundle model
the Carman-Kozeny model fails in predicting
permeability. Therefore it is important to introduce a
modification. A variable exponent in the porosity group
is introduced as well as a correction for the degree of
cementation (Civan, 2002-2003). This modification
leads to obtain straight lines with slopes different than
one in the RQI-|
z
plot.
NON-LINEAR OPTIMIZATION
Because of random errors and minor fluctuations of
geological factors controlling petrophysical attributes,
data will cluster around the straight lines showing some
scatter (Abbaszadeh et al., 1996), consequently the FZI
will be distributed around an expected value.
Since the FZI can be represented as the product of
several factors, according to the Central Limit
Theorem, its probability distribution will be log-normal
(Jensen, 1997). This observation has profound
implications because the properties -mean and standard
deviation- of the log-normal distribution or, more
broadly speaking, the Gaussian distribution, are well
known, being given this probability distribution by:
( )
2
1 x
2
1
f x, , e
2
| |

|
o \ .
o =
o t
(10)
In equation (10) and are the expected value and the
standard deviation.
In a probability plot the logarithm of the FZI will plot
as a straight line. Unfortunately, when several
populations (flow units) are present in the data, it is
common to observe superposition of several
distributions.
For the case of a multi modal distribution the
probability plot is not linear, rather a smooth curve is
obtained, thus, attempting to identify straight line in
such a plot is though and inaccurate. Moreover, because
of superposition effects, the number of clusters present
will be masked introducing bias to interpretations
extracted from the plot. Hence, data clustering using the
probability plot requires a rigorous approach.
Non-linear optimization provides a robust way to
decompose a superposition of a multi-modal Gaussian
distribution into its component parents. The goal is to
minimize the cost function given by the least squares
criteria
( ) ( ) ( ( | |
_
=
=
m
1 i
2
i
calc
i i
meas
i
FZI ln F FZI ln F _ )) (11)
where ( ) ( )
i
calc
i
FZI ln F and are the calculated
and measured cumulative probability of obtaining a
value less than or equal to ln(FZI
( (
i
meas
i
FZI ln F ))
i
). The term
( ) ( )
i
meas
i
FZI ln F is obtained from measured data.
The cumulative probability distribution for a
multimodal distribution is given by (Sinclair, 1976):
( ) ( ) (
_
=
=
N
1 j
i j j i
calc
i
z F f FZI ln F ) (12)
where f
i
is the fraction of the data belonging to a
particular population, N is the number of HFU, and F(z)
is given by (Jensen, 1997):
( )
(

|
.
|

\
|
+ =
_
=
N
1 i
i
2
erf f 1
2
1
z F
z
(13)
In equation (13) erf() is the error function and z is the
standard normal variable defined by
lnFZI
lnFZI
lnFZI-
z

=
o
(14)
The standard variable z may be estimated from rational
approximations (Jensen, 1997),
ln(fzi)
, and
ln(fzi)
are the
mean and standard deviation of ln(fzi)
One of the major advantages of this approach is that the
mean and standard deviation of each population are
calculated values, not approximations. On the other, it
is critical to provide the algorithm with initial guess
values close to the solution because non-physical
solutions may arise. Also, convergence problems might
take place. Another problem that has to be dealt with is
how to figure out the optimum number of HFU present
in the core data.
3
UUU
SPWLA 48
th
Annual Logging Symposium, June 3-6, 2007
Because the optimum number of clusters is not known
in advance, an iterative procedure is required to
determine the number of hydraulic flow units. In order
to overcome these two adverse situations, it is
performed a preliminary graphical clustering analysis as
follows:
1. Assume the number of HFU in dataset
2. Estimate FZI values from the RQI-|
z
plot.
3. Perform non-linear optimization in order to obtain
the minimum of the misfit function given by (11)
for the assumed number of HFU
4. Increase the number of HFU and go back to step 2;
perform this step until the misfit function reaches a
plateau.
Once the optimum number of HFU has been
determined, the mean, standard deviation and the
fraction of the sample corresponding to each HFU can
be determined from the minimization of equation (11).
An alternative linear optimization algorithm (Al-Ajmi,
et al., 2000) using the RQI-|
z
plot can be applied with
equivalent results.
BAYES THEOREM
Once the statistics ( and ) of each distribution have
been obtained, the next step is to properly assign core
measurements to their respective HFU. The basis of
this approach is the fact that a particular FZI may
correspond to any HFU, but it will take place with
different values of probabilities for each HFU. This
may be visualized according to the probability tree
shown in Figure 1.
FZI
i
FZI
i
FZI
i
.
.
.
.
f f H
F
U
1
H
F
U
1
f f
HFU2 HFU2
f f
H
F
H
N
H
F
H
N
( )
i 1
P lnFZI lnfzi HFU e
( )
i 2
P lnFZI lnfzi HFU e
( )
i n
P lnFZI lnfzi HFU e
FZI
i
FZI
i
FZI
i
.
.
.
.
f f H
F
U
1
H
F
U
1
f f
HFU2 HFU2
f f
H
F
H
N
H
F
H
N
( )
i 1
P lnFZI lnfzi HFU e
( )
i 2
P lnFZI lnfzi HFU e
( )
i n
P lnFZI lnfzi HFU e
Figure 1: Probability Tree showing alternative branches for
each HFU leading to the same FZI
Each branch in the probability tree leads to the same
FZI but with different probability. Then, from the
Bayes Theorem (DWindt, 2005):
4
( )
( )
( )
_
=
e
e
= e
N
1 i
i i
i i
i
HFU ) fzi ln( ) FZI ln( P f
HFU ) fzi ln( ) FZI ln( P f
) fzi ln( ) FZI ln( HFU P
(15)
The symbol e means in the neighborhood of (Kapur,
2000). N is the number of HFU. The term
P(HFU
i
ln(FZI
j
)eln(fzi)) is the probability of
obtaining a particular HFU given that a particular
ln(FZI) is in the neighborhood of ln(fzi). The term fi
is an a priori estimate of the probability occurrence of a
given HFU. The term P(ln(FZI
j
)eln(fzi)HFU
i
) is the
probability that a particular ln(FZI) is within certain
interval given that it belongs to a particular HFU, it is
calculated using equation (10).
The application of equation (15) permits the
determination of the boundaries of each HFU in a
simple way. Probability logs can be generated for each
HFU so the boundaries are easily identified. The
procedure is simple and intuitive; the decision rule is
based on a probability value.
INVERSE PROBLEM: BAYESIAN INVERSION
Once core measurements have been clustered into their
respective parents, the inverse problem must be
addressed. That is, predicting hydraulic flow units on
wells without core measurements based only wireline
logs.
Figure 2 shows a probability tree with the different
alternatives or paths available leading to a particular set
of wireline logs. It is assumed that different HFU may
result in the same set of log values, but this takes place
at a different probability values.
X X
i i
X X
i i
X X
i i
. .
.. ..
. .
. .
. .
P
(
H
F
U
1
P
(
H
F
U
1
) )
P
(
H
F
U
2
P
(
H
F
U
2
) )
P
(
H
F
U
n
P
(
H
F
U
n
) )
( )
i 1
P X HU e
( )
i 2
P X HU e
( )
i n
P X HU e
X X
i i
X X
i i
X X
i i
. .
.. ..
. .
. .
. .
P
(
H
F
U
1
P
(
H
F
U
1
) )
P
(
H
F
U
2
P
(
H
F
U
2
) )
P
(
H
F
U
n
P
(
H
F
U
n
) )
( )
i 1
P X HU e
( )
i 2
P X HU e
( )
i n
P X HU e
Figure 2: Probability Tree showing alternative branches for
each HFU leading to the same set of wireline log readings
In the case of multiple wells logs, equation (15) is
modified so that the probability of occurrence of HFU
given a wireline log data set may be calculated, the
required expression is the following (DWindt, 2005):
SPWLA 48
th
Annual Logging Symposium, June 3-6, 2007
( )
( )
( )
i j i
i j
n
i j i
i 1
f P X HFU
P HFU X
f P X HFU
=
e
e =
e
_
(16)
where fi the a priori estimate of a particular HFU
obtained from core data, X
j
represents a group of log
values which are near a set of given log values . The
term P(HU
i
X
j
e) is the probability of obtaining a
HFU given that the wireline log readings are in the
neighborhood of and P(X
j
HU
i
) is the probability of
obtaining a given set of log readings given a particular
HFU. When using log data we are dealing with discrete
data, thus probability given by equation (16) can be
estimated by:
( )
( )
( )
j j
i j
j
n X HFU
P HFU X
n X
e
e =
e
(17)
The term n(X
j
eHFU
j
) is the number of data points
belonging to HFU
j
in a given interval or bin and
n(X
j
e) is the number of all data points falling in the
bin. For bins without data, probabilities are interpolated
using an inverse distance method (Isaaks, 1989).
FIELD CASES
I Sandstone Reservoir:
This formation is a Eocene clastic reservoir located at
the center of the basin of Lake Maracaibo (Venezuela);
at approximately 11,000 ft (TVD). Sand deposits are
primarily of channel-type corresponding to a fluvial-
deltaic deposition system. Total reservoir thickness is
up to 900 ft. A total of 21 wells have been drilled with
core data acquired only on three of them. Permeability
ranges from less than 0.1 md up to 2000 md. Net pay
porosity is between 12% and 25%, non-pay rocks are
considered to have less than 10%porosity.
Data Corrections. Porosity and permeability core data
has to be both Klinkenberg and stress-corrected to
simulate reservoir-confining conditions. Stress
corrections are made according to Jones (1986).
Figure 3 shows a permeability-porosity cross plot the
sandstone reservoir at net overburden (NOB)
conditions. Variation of 2 orders of magnitude for a
given porosity indicates that other factors rather than
porosity itself- are governing formation transmissibility.
An exponential or potential model for the k-|
relationship will not properly reproduce formation
permeability (Jennings et al., 2001).
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25
Porosity (fraction) @ NOB
P
e
r
m
e
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

(
m
D
)

@

N
O
B
Figure 3: Permeability-Porosity relationship for sandstone
reservoir
Hydraulic Flow Unit Identification. Preliminary
analysis of the probability RQI-|
z
plot (Figure 4)
indicates that there is not clear boundary among the
different flow units. Furthermore, it is challenging to
determine the number of flow units present in the core
measurements
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
0.01 0.1 1
PHIz @ NOB
R
Q
I

@

N
O
B

(
m
i
c
r
o
n
s
)
Figure 4: RQI-|
z
relationship for sandstone reservoir; the plot
does not show clear boundaries between HFU
From the minimization of the cost function given by
equation (11) it is determined that 7 clusters or HFU are
required to properly model core data (Figure 5).
For 7 clusters the cost function flattens indicating that a
further increase of the number of clusters does not
significantly reduce the objective function.
5
UUU
SPWLA 48
th
Annual Logging Symposium, June 3-6, 2007
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Number of Clusters
C
o
s
t

F
u
n
c
t
i
o
n
Figure 5: Cost function (least-square criteria) as a function of
number of clusters
Once the optimum number of cluster is determined, the
minimization of equation (11) allows the calculation of
the statistics of each parent or HFU. Figure 6 shows the
match given by non-linear optimization. A close
approximation on the probability plot is obtained by
using 7 HFU.
6
It is important to state that any attempt of fitting
straight lines directly in the plot lead to a wrong number
of HFU. In this particular case maybe 4 or 5 straight
lines might be fitted leading to wrong statistics.
0.1
1
10
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Z
F
Z
I
Match
Data
Figure 6: Probability plot of core data showing non-Linear
regression match obtained from minimization of misfit
function
It has to be noted that the parameters ( and ) obtained
from minimization of the misfit function correspond to
the lognormal distribution. Therefore, proper
transformations are needed to obtain the actual values
of FZI for each HFU. To complete such a task (Jensen,
1997) the following expressions are used:
( )
2
ln FZIi lnFZI
+0.5
FZI
=e
o
(18)
( )
2
lnFZI
2 2
FZI lnFZI
= e
o
1 o
(19)
Table 1 shows the statistics obtained from the
optimization scheme for each HFU.
Table 1. Non-linear optimization results. Statistics
for each HFU
HFU f
i

FZIi
o
FZIi
1 0.0425 0.1496 0.1863
2 0.1593 0.6489 0.0277
3 0.2116 1.3032 0.0040
4 0.1575 2.0360 0.0098
5 0.1873 3.4079 0.0740
6 0.2044 5.8613 0.0952
7 0.0373 8.5924 0.1409
For the sake of comparison, alternative choices for
clustering data such as: K-means, Wards algorithm,
and Kohonens self-organizing maps techniques were
applied in order to evaluate the consistency of the
proposed method. Table 2 shows a comparison of the
expected value of FZI for each HFU obtained from
different methods
Table 2. Comparison of expected value of FZI from
different clustering results
HFU
Non-
Linear
Ward
Algorithm
K-Means Kohonen
1 0.150 0.196 0.203 0.226
2 0.649 0.564 0.627 0.675
3 1.303 0.969 1.046 1.219
4 2.036 1.672 1.647 2.038
5 3.408 2.578 2.513 3.327
6 5.861 4.582 4.457 5.393
7 8.592 7.409 7.297 7.890
From the results presented in table 2 it is observed that
the four different methods provide values for the FZI in
a close range indicating consistency in results. For the
case of the Kohonens self-organizing maps technique,
the absolute differences with the non-linear results are
less than 5% in average (excluding HFU 1). Further
more, hypothesis test for the mean between Kohonens
and non-linear results show that, with the exception of
the HFU1 and HFU7, differences are not statistically
significant.
Once the optimal number of clusters is determined it is
necessary to establish the boundaries of each HFU in
order to classify the core data. In this paper a Bayesian
approach is applied to perform this task. A probability
SPWLA 48
th
Annual Logging Symposium, June 3-6, 2007
of occurrence for each HFU given a particular value of
FZI is determined by means of the Bayes rule. This is
accomplished by applying of equation (15). The
corresponding HFU for a given FZI will be that one
with the highest probability of occurrence. Results of
the application of equation (15) are shown in Figure 7.
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.1 1 10
FZI
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

o
f
O
c
u
r
r
e
n
c
e
HFU1
HFU2
HFU3
HFU4
HFU5
HFU6
HFU7
Figure 7: Probability log for each HFU as a function of the
Flow Zone Indicator (FZI). Venezuelan reservoir
It is important to remark that boundaries for each HFU
are easily determined by a probability value. There is
no need for clustering algorithms such as Ward or K-
means algorithms for clustering core data into its
respective parent, a simple probability criteria is
sufficient. The RQI-|
z
plot (Figure 8) shows unit slope
lines passing through each cluster or HFU following the
classification made based on the Bayes Theorem; here
the intersection at |
z
=1 provides the expected value FZI
for each HFU.
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
0.01 0.1 1
PHIz @ NOB
R
Q
I
@

N
O
B

(
m
i
c
r
o
n
s
)
HU1 HU2 HU3 HU4 HU5 HU6 HU7
Figure 8: RQI-|
z
plot presenting core data grouped by
Hydraulic Flow Unit
Once core measurements are assigned to their
respective HFU, k-| cross-plot (Figure 9) shows a
variation of less than a half of logarithmic cycle for
each HFU. Variability within a particular HFU is small.
Variation in permeability, for a given porosity, is
dramatically reduced when reservoir is subdivided into
flow units with distinctive pore-throat attributes.
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25
Porosidad (fraccion) @ NOB
K

@

N
O
B

(
m
D
)
HU1 HU2 HU3 HU4 HU5 HU6 HU7
Figure 9: k-| cross plot for Field Case I
Hydraulic flow unit inference from log data. Solution
of the inverse problem requires dealing with wireline
log data but, prior to any kind of analysis, log data must
be depth-matched to core measurements and corrected
for environmental effects. Also, wireline log responses
have to be normalized; this is a mandatory and sensitive
task (Hunt et al., 1996).
Environmentally-corrected wireline logs are correlated
with FZI via Spearmans rank correlation method
(Amaefule et al., 1988). Among the different logs
available, it was determined that gamma-ray, Neutron
porosity, and density porosity logs gave the highest
correlation coefficient with FZI.
In order to apply equation (17), a Bayesian algorithm
was implemented with the log measurements and with
conventional core laboratory measurements.
Application of equation (17) allowed the determination
of probabilities of occurrence for each HFU for a given
set of wireline logs, being selected that HFU with the
highest probability. Once a HFU was determined,
permeability was calculated by using equation (9).
Predicted and measured permeability are shown in a
log-log cross plot in Figure 10. Correlation coefficient
is equal to 0.97, indicating a high accuracy in the results
provided by the Bayesian inversion method.
7
UUU
SPWLA 48
th
Annual Logging Symposium, June 3-6, 2007
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000
K core (mD)
K

c
a
l
c
u
l
a
t
e
d
(
m
D
)
Figure 10: Calculated-Measured permeability cross plot for
core data of three wells; r
2
= 0.97
Figure 11 and Figure 12 show a comparison between
actual and calculated values for two of the wells with
core data. Calculated permeability profile reproduces
the general tendency shown by core measurements
10550
10650
10750
10850
10950
1 10 100 1000 10000
K(mD)
D
e
p
t
h

(
f
e
e
t
)
K core
K Calculated
Figure 11: Permeability profile for Well A; comparison
between Bayesian generated permeability and actual core
data. Venezuelan sandstone reservoir
11000
11100
11200
11300
11400
11500
0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000
K(mD)
D
e
p
t
h

(
f
e
e
t
)
K core
K Calculated
Figure 12: Permeability profile for Well B; comparison
between Bayesian generated probability and actual core data
These figures illustrate the ability of the inversion
scheme to reproduce permeability by using only well
logs assuming that no core data had been taken at all.
Dynamic validation. Proposed HFU scheme is tested in
a well without core data completed in the reservoir.
Production data available includes RFT, BUP and PLT
measurements. The pressure transient test indicated a
kh of 10400 mD-ft and a skin of 2. From PLT/RFT
results it was calculated a PI of 25.65 STB/D/psi.
Bayesian inversion was applied using available log data
in this well determining a kh of 10950 md-ft (relative
permeability data was used to correct for liquid
saturation effects; kro
@Swi
was estimated at 0.73).
A synthetic PI of 24.05 STB/D/psi was calculated by
using pseudo-steady Darcys equation. Calculated PI
and kh values differed only in 5% and 6% respectively
from actual data.
These results indicate that not only permeability is
properly reproduced but also that dynamic well
8
SPWLA 48
th
Annual Logging Symposium, June 3-6, 2007
response can be simulated with a high degree of
confidence.
Ta l pro s Field c
9
II - Middle East Reservoir:
Core data available from a Middle East sandstone
reservoir was analyzed using the previously applied
methodology. Figure 13 is a permeability-porosity
cross-plot showing variation of to 4 orders of
magnitude in permeability.
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30
Porosity (fraction) @ NOB
K

@
N
O
B

(
m
D
)
v
Figure 13: Permeability-Porosity relationship for Middle East
Reservoir.
Non-linear optimization on the probability plot allows
the determination of 6 HFU present in core data
(Figure 14). Observe the smoothness of the curve,
which cause to be challenging attempting to draw
straight lines directly in the plot.
0.1
1
10
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Z
F
Z
I
Match
Data
Figure 14: Probability plot of core data showing non-linear
regression match obtained from minimization of cost function
field case II
Table 3 presents the statistical properties of each HFU
obtained from the non-linear optimization
ble 3 HFU statistica pertie ase II
HFU f
i

FZIi
o
FZIi
1 0.3645 0.5848 0.0328
2 0.1754 1.1432 0.0006
3 0.1738 1.9595 0.0164
4 0.1705 3.1936 0.0321
5 0.0492 4.6912 0.1023
6 0.0667 7.4872 0.2858
Application of equation (15) allows the determination
of probability logs (Figure 15) for each HFU permitting
the identification of each HFU boundaries.
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.1 1 10
FZI
P
r
o
b
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

o
f

o
c
u
r
r
e
n
c
e
HU1
HU2
HU3
HU4
HU5
HU6
as a function of the
ow Zone Indicator (FZI). Field case II
forming clusters with small variability within
them.
Figure 15: Probability log for each HFU
Fl
RQI-|
z
cross plot (Figure 16) shows 6 different HFU
represented. Despite data being tightly clustered,
proposed algorithm is capable of separating one from
other
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
0.01 0.1 1
PHIz @ NOB
R
Q
I

@

N
O
B

(
m
i
c
r
o
n
s
)
HU1 HU2 HU3 HU4 HU5 HU6
C
Figure 16: RQI-|
z
plot presenting core data grouped by
Hydraulic Flow Unit Middle East Reservoir
UUU
SPWLA 48
th
Annual Logging Symposium, June 3-6, 2007
10
t; less than an order in
magnitude is observed when previously 4 orders of
magnitude was the order of day.
Inspection of Figure 17 indicates little variability within
a given HFU in the k-| cross plo
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
8200
8250
8300
8350
8400
8450
8500
8550
8600
0.1 1 10 100 1000
K (mD)
D
e
p
t
h

(
f
t
)
K core (mD)
K Calculated (mD)
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.2
Porosidad @ N
0 0.25 0.30 0.35
OB
K

@

N
O
B
(
m
D
)
HU1 HU2 HU3 HU4 HU5 HU6
C
fficient of r = 0.96 (Figure 18). Again,
e Bayesian inversion showed accuracy in predicting
permeability.
Figure 17: k-| cross plot Field case II
For this field-case several well logs were available:
gamma-ray, neutron density, FDC, shallow and deep
resistivity, microlog, and sonic among others. Rank
correlation determined that only three well logs were
required: GR, FDC, and Neutron porosity. Inversion
scheme permitted to determine permeability with a
correlation coe
2
th
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000
K core (mD)
K

c
a
l
c
u
l
a
t
e
d

(
m
D
)
ls with core data
drilled in the reservoir. The inversion process
accurately reproduces permeability.
Figure 18: Calculated-Measured permeability cross plot; r
2
=
0.96. Middle East reservoir
Figure 19 presents one of the wel
Figure 19: Permeability profile for a well drilled in the
reservoir; comparison between calculated permeability and
actual core data.
All the procedures previously shown are easily
implemented in a spreadsheet environment; no special
commercial software is required for performing these
tasks.
CONCLUSIONS
A novel technique is presented and successfully applied
for clustering core data. Non-linear optimization is
coupled with Bayes Theorem for grouping core data
into its respective parent.
Bayesian inversion proves to be a powerful tool for
predicting rock properties based only on log data.
SPWLA 48
th
Annual Logging Symposium, June 3-6, 2007
11
Application of the methodology allows the
determination of the true (not estimates) mean and
standard deviation of each HFU.
Accurate permeability prediction is achieved by means
of the application of the Carman-Kozeny model.
Reproduction of well performance behavior indicates
that outcomes of the inversion process can be used as
input for numerical simulation purposes.
Consistency in results when compared to other
techniques validates the application of the proposed
methodology rendering it suitable for data analysis for
predicting pore-throat attributes.
Productivity assessments can be performed in an easy
and accurate way reducing the need for acquisition of
expensive testing data.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The author thanks PDVSA for permission to publish
this work and for permitting the use of field data.
A note of special gratitude goes to Onaida Pereira for
her assistance and Dr. Rodolfo Soto for his advice, and
for providing data for this research. Special
appreciation is granted to Jesus Salazar for his
corrections.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adolfo DWindt has worked for eight years as
reservoir engineer for PDVSA ,Maracaibo, Venezuela,
dealing with sandstone reservoirs under primary
depletion and waterflooding projects. His research
interests include well transient analysis, formation
evaluation, productivity assessment, and uncertainty
analysis. He received a B.Sc degree in 1997 from
Universidad del Zulia, and M.Sc. degrees from the
University of Texas at Austin, in 2004 and from
Universidad del Zulia in 2006, all in Petroleum
Engineering.