Loss of Control Accidents: An analysis perspective

Ilias Maragakis EASA Safety Analyst EASA Safety Conference 4th-5th October 2011, Cologne

Loss of control in writing

Overview
What is the percentage of loss of control accidents? What are the current trends? In which phase do they occur? What is the first event of an accident? Is there a difference between aircraft design generations?

Data Scope -Worldwide -Accidents (2001-2010) -Commercial Air Transport -Aeroplanes (fixed wing) -Mass 5,700 kg and above

LOC-I: According to CICTT

Loss of Control Accidents All accidents

5%
Loss of control Accidents

Loss of Control Accidents Fatal Accidents

25%
Loss of control Accidents

Inverted Pyramid
Loss of Control Occurrences

Accidents

39
Serious Incidents 18

Incidents

Fatalities and Fatal Accidents in Loss of Control

Phase of flight

Loss of Control Accidents and injury level

Loss of Control Accidents and damage level

06/10/2011

Annual Safety Review 2010

11

Visibility Conditions

Visibility Conditions

IMC VMC 7,69%

28,85%

13,46% 50,00%

Light Conditions Daylight Night/dark

5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% % of Total Number of Records

First Event in accident chain

Engine failure Aircraft handling Icing conditions Take-off overweight/incorrect loading Weather encounters Bird Strike Etc..

Aircraft Generations
First Generation: 50s -70s

Second Generation: 70s and 80s

Third Generation: 90s today

Aircraft Generations LOC-I Accidents

4,5

Generations 3rd Generation 2nd Generation 1st Generation

4,0

3,5

3,0

2,5

2,0

1,5

1,0

0,5

0,0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Aircraft Generations Movements

18M Generations 1st Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Generation

16M

14M Number of flights (millions)

12M

10M

8M

6M

4M

2M 0M 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Rate of LOC-I accidents

2.5

1st Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Generation

2

Rate of accidents per 10 million flights

1.5

0.5

0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Conclusions
Loss of control, through its severity, is a serious threat to aviation safety There is no single cause why these accidents occur; there is no single solution A variety of factors involved, human factors included Authorities, training organisations, operators, manufacturers and human factors experts need to work together to solve this multifaceted issue.

Annual Safety Review 2010

Ilias.maragakis@easa.europa.eu