GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

Mr Stanley Kee Regional Commercial Director, Asia

GfK Retail and Technology

7/2010 4/2010

Content
2

1. Objective 2. Macroeconomic Information GDP Year-on-Year Growth Inflation Rate Evolution Unemployment Rate Stock Market Currency Exchange Rate Consumer Confidence

6 7 8 9 10 11

3. Technology Market Trend Market Overview Market Trend - Total Market - Consumer Electronics - Major Domestic Appliance - Photo - Telecom - Small Domestic Appliance - Information Technology Glossary Terms Terms of Usage and Disclaimer 17 24 28 32 33 37 41 45 48 13

Objective

GfK Retail and Technology

7/2010 4/2010

Objective
4

To monitor the sales trend of key market segments and products audited by GfK, together with the economic information. These information are the key indicators of economic development and would assist our valued partners to better manage their businesses. The Asia report includes 9 countries : Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. Only common products across the 9 countries are included in the Total Market analysis.

Macroeconomic Information

GfK Retail and Technology

7/2010 4/2010

Asia - GDP Year-On-Year Growth

6

22

18

14

10

2 Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Q110 Q210 Q310 Q410

-2

-6

-10

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Korea

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Taiwan

Thailand

Vietnam

Note : Vietnam provides only yearly data; therefore quarterly data takes that of the yearly.

GfK Retail and Technology

7/2010 4/2010

Asia - Inflation Rate Evolution

7
25

20

15

10

-5 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11

-10

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Korea

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Taiwan

Thailand

Vietnam

Note: Vietnam 2008 and 2009 figures are yearly estimates.

GfK Retail and Technology

7/2010 4/2010

Asia - Unemployment Rate

8
13

10

-2 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11

-5

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Korea

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Taiwan

Thailand

Vietnam

Note: Vietnam figures are yearly estimates, the monthly takes that of the yearly

GfK Retail and Technology

7/2010 4/2010

Asia - Stock Market

9

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

Apr- May- Jun- Jul-09 Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul-10 Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11

HIS

JKSE

KOSPI

KLSE

PSEI

STI

TWII

SET

VNIndex

Note : Jan08 is used as the base

GfK Retail and Technology

7/2010 4/2010

Asia - Currency Exchange Rate (interbank rate)

10

110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11

USD/HKD

USD/IDR

USD/MYR

USD/PHP

USD/SGD

USD/KRW

USD/TWD

USD/THB

USD/VND

Note : May08 is used as the base. IDRx1000, KRWx100, VNDx1000

GfK Retail and Technology

7/2010 4/2010

Asia - Consumer Confidence

11

120

100 86.6 86.1 80 76.6 75.7 66.9 60.0 60 49.2 40.5 40 28.8 24.7 20 27.8 31.2 23.0 61.4 56.1 59.8 54.1 55.7 49.7 39.4 66.3 67.9 66.2 59.3 56.5 80.1 79.4 65.7 90.0

93.7

90.3

62.5 55.3 50.6 57.3

60.9

Hong Kong

Indonesia

Korea

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Taiwan

Thailand

Vietnam

H1 2009

H2 2009

H1 2010

H2 2010

Source: MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence Periods are based on when the survey was conducted. Therefore, if the survey was conducted in March/ April '10, projecting consumer confidence for the six months ahead, the above would be highlighted as H1 2010.

Technology Market Trend

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

Asia - Market Overview

13

Asia's rapid growth is accompanied by the emergence of pockets of overheating across the region in both goods and assets prices. Rising food and oil costs continue to plaque the region, causing inflation to continue to be an issue in Asia. Philippines and Malaysia joined Vietnam in raising interest rates as nations in a region that led the global economic recovery intensified their fight against inflation. The highest inflation in the region was recorded in Vietnam, whose inflation accelerated at its fastest pace in almost two and a half years since December 2008. This came after its consumer price index in March rose about 13.9% year on year and 2.17% month on month. Year to date sales value and units across all panels tracked registered healthy growths of 22.2% and 18.2 %. Telecommunication is the highest growth sector at 41.9% and 28.9% value and unit sales respectively, and 9.3% average price increase in USD. Consumer Electronics also recorded substantial price increase at 9% average growth.

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

Asia - Market Overview

14

The Consumer Electronic market continues to experience high value growth of 11.4% vs the previous year, while volume growth registered 2.1% in April. This is largely due to the rising popularity of premium products such as LCD TVs and Blu-ray Players. As a result, average selling price grew by 9% vs the previous year, driven mainly by consumers switch from CRT TVs to LCD TVs. LCD TV continues to do well across the nine Asia countries, while CRT-TV is on its way to completely delisting in the developing countries. This switchover trend is especially apparent in developed countries such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea where the CRT-TV is almost totally replaced by flat panel TVs. As a whole, the Digital Camera category continued to show growth over the same period last year, registering double digit in sales value. All markets, except Vietnam, registered growth; with Philippines taking the lead. In the case of Hong Kong, although decline was registered in sales units over the same period last year, the sales value and the average price registered positive growthan indication that consumers are purchasing higher price cameras.

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

Asia - Market Overview

15

Small Domestic Appliances showed robust growth in Asia, especially for developed nations. Singapore and Hong Kong led growth for SDA category for first four months of 2011 compared to 2010, with Singapore showing improvement of 36.7% and Hong Kong, 29.8% in value terms. Malaysia and Taiwan have also shown strong robust double digit growth. Key SDA products for Asias economy are Food Preparation and Vacuum Cleaners. Asian consumers also prefer high end Vacuum Cleaners as indicated by the increase in average pricing. Major Domestic Appliances saw a robust growth of 13.8% in value and 7.5 % in volume owing to increase in consumer expenditure. This growth was contributed mainly by the increased sales of air conditioners and washing machines, which both grew considerably in volume and value terms. Overall, Singapore registered the most expansion as price increases meant value growth (26.5%) would surpass the volume growth (20.6%). Emerging markets like Indonesia, Thailand, and Philippines witnessed substantial price declines owing to intense competition in the market. Within MDA, the trend towards more sophisticated and premium segments like front load washing machines, split inverter air conditioners etc continues.

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

Asia - Market Overview

16

Intense competition from low cost local and Chinese brands are continuously driving the prices of feature phone downwards even as these devices are being packed with more features. The high/mid end feature phone segments are gradually fading into the lower cost segments resultantly. Sales units continue to grow albeit marginally while the total value of feature phones sales fell 30%, testament to the impact of falling prices. Smartphones continue its strong triple digit growth, while prices maintain strong with minute price erosion. In the IT panel, multi-functional printing devices continue to grow across Southeast Asia, contributed mainly by the increased sales from the INKJET segment. Malaysia especially is showing the largest growth for Inkjet devices, overtaking Thailand as the 2nd largest Inkjet market, after Indonesia. The overall computing devices segment in Apr11 saw Webbook sales in Taiwan growing by more than 30% over the previous month to hit 20,000 units. This considerable growth could be attributed to sales of the 32GB Android OS models. Another hot-seller in the market is one model that has both a Netbooks full keyboard features (detachable) as well as Webbooks connectivity

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

17

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

18

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

19

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

20

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

21

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

22

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

23

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

24

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

25

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

26

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

27

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

28

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

29

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

30

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

31

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

32

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

33

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

34

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

35

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

36

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

37

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

38

GfK Retail and Technology GfK Retail

5/2011 4/2010

Information Tech.
Growth vs last year January 2011 - April 2011
Sales Value USD Sales Units Price USD
39

Total

8,4

6,8

1,5

DESK COMPUTERS

-3,4

-2,8

-0,6

MOBILE COMPUTER

18,o

22,1

-3,4

MONITORS

-8,5

-4,9

-3,8

PRINTER

1,4

-0,7

-0,7

MULTI FUNCTION DEV

12,7

14,0

-1,2
PRJ 79311 - RG 2036794 - RP 10010479 - ID 270214528

by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.com

GfK Retail and Technology GfK Retail

5/2011 4/2010

Information Tech.
Growth vs last year January 2011 - April 2011
Sales Value <LC>
Hong Kong 40

Sales Units

Price <LC>

3,8 19,7 24,4 -11,1 0,2 2,4 -9,9 9 4,2 -8,4 -7,1

9,7 13,5 29,5 17,9 4,4 4,4

-5,4 5,5 -4 -24,6 -4 -1,8 -3,1

Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

South Korea

Taiwan

Thailand

9,4

-0,4 13,8
PRJ 79311 - RG 2036794 - RP 10010480 - ID 270214529

Vietnam
by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.com

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

41

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

42

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

43

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

44

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

Glossary Terms
45

Cons. Electronics

consumer electronics (CE), i.e. audio & visual products e.g. Colour TV, Camcorder, Audio Home System. major domestic appliance (MDA), i.e. Air Conditioner, Cooling (Refrigerator), Washing Machine, Microwave Oven. small domestic appliance (SDA), i.e. Food Preparation, Iron, Vacuum Cleaner. digital camera. information technology (IT), i.e. Desk Computer, Mobile Computer, Printer, and Monitor.

Major Domest Appl.

Small Domest Appl. Photo Information Tech.

: : :

Telecom Independents Chains/MM

: : :

telecommunication, i.e. Mobile Phone, Smart Phone. retail stores with less than 3 outlets. chain retail stores with 3 or more outlets and central policy. MM (MassMerch) comprises department stores and/or hypermarkets. Local currency.

<LC>

Sources for macro economic data are :

Census & Statistics Department, The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Oanda Corporation, MasterCard Worldwide Index of Consumer Confidence, Statistics Indonesia of The Republic of Indonesia, Bank Indonesia, Bank of Korea, Korea National Statistics Office, Department of Statistics, Malaysia, Trading economics - Global Economic Research, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas / National Statistics Office (NSO), Singapore Department of Statistics, Singapore Ministry of Trade & Industry/Ministry of Manpower, National statistics - Republic of China (Taiwan), National Economic Development, Thailand, Commerce Ministry, Thailand, Bank of Thailand, The Stock Exchange of Thailand, General Statistics Office (GSO), State Bank of Vietnam, World Bank, VNDirect Securities Corporation, PACIFIC Exchange Rate Service

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

Glossary Terms
46

Common Products in Total Market Analysis

Product excluded in Total Market Analysis

CRT TV, PTV, DVD Player/Recorder, Camcorder, Audio Home System, Air Conditioner, Cooling, Microwave Oven, Washing Machine, Mobile Phones and Smart Phone, Desk Computer, Mobile Computer and Printer, and Monitor. Food Preparation, Iron, and Vacuum Cleaner.

GfK Retail and Technology

5/2009

Total
Sales Value % Jan 08-Mar 08 - Mar 09
Jan 08-Mar 08 Jan 09- Mar 09 Mar 08 Ap r 08 May 08 Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Se p 08 Oct 08 No v 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09

Chart Analysis : - Jan08-Mar08 Mar09 refers to January to March 2008 and January to March 2009 - 1st bar shows Jan to Mar 2008; 2nd bar shows Jan to Mar 2009; all other bars show each period from Mar08 to Mar09 - Each bar adds to 100% and looks at the value share of the products within the specified period

29.7 28.2

23.8 26.6 27.3 28 27.6 28.5 30.1 27.1 27.2 28 26.5 26.5 26.5

24.2

23.1
Cons. Electronics Major Domestic Appl. Photo Telecom

27 30.6 31.9 31.1 35.9

26.5 23.9 22.8 21.9 20.5 20.8 22.6 26.3

9.1

9.9

8.9

8.4 8.9 8.1 7.8 7.7

8.1

8.5 9.3 11.2 10.1 9.8

9.8

37 38.8

36

34 33.5 34.5 32.6

38.6 40.7 40.6 41.3 39.9 39 40.5 36.7

by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.com

PRJ 79311 / RG 1435185 / ID 7117567

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

Glossary Terms
47
GfK Retail and Technology 5/2009

By Country
Sales Value % Ytd 2009
Hong Kong
Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

Chart Analysis : - Ytd : year to date

Indonesia
Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

Malaysia
Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

Philippine
Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

Singapore South Korea

Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009 Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

Taiwan
Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

Thailand
Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

Vietnam
Ytd 2008 Ytd 2009

21.1 20.8

21.2 20.1

20.8

24.2 31.7 30.2 37.6 42.7 34.4 31.9 30.6 34.7 31.8 34

- looks at the share by sector Year to date 2008 and Year to data 2009

28.2 27.3

7.2

7.8 16 15.9 17.9 21.4

21.5

23.1

2.5

3.3 7.4 19.2

17.9 15.2 31.2 9 4.5 4.9 18.9 35.3 3.4 25.3 28.2 23.9 24.9 30.3 29.5

CONS. ELECTRONICS MAJOR DOMESTIC APPL. PHOTO TELECOM

20.7 8.8 60.3 60.7 50.2 48.4 53.9 45.4 44.6 47 18.4 8.8

11.7 10.3 12.6 10.1

2.7

38.8 39.8 26.6 20 21.5 28.1 29.8 28.6 32.7 31

by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt. com

PRJ 79311 / RG 1435185 / ID 7117573

GfK Retail and Technology

5/2009

Total
Growth vs last year January 2009 - March 2009
Sales Value USD Sales Units Price USD

Chart Analysis : - shows the growth Jan to Mar 2009 against Jan to Mar 2008

Total

-21.2

1.7

-22.5

- looks at the growth by Sales Value in USD in the 1st column, Sales Units in the 2nd column, Price in USD in 3rd column

Cons. Electronics

-25

-6.4

-19.8

Major Domestic Appl.

-25

-9.3

-17.3

Photo

-13.9

-0.1

-13.8

Telecom

-17.4

8.4

-23.8

by GfK-RT, www.gfkrt.com

PRJ 79311 / RG 1435185 / ID 7117569

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

Terms of Usage and Disclaimer

48

GfK data is collected in accordance with generally accepted standards of the research industry. GfK draws an appropriate sample for representative extrapolation to the universe; the data in this report reflects panel market based on the GfK audited channel. GfK shall not be liable to the Client for lost profits or revenues, economic loss, including consequential or similar damages, arising out of either the use of GfK Data by the Client or GfK or the performance of any consulting, analytical or other services by GfK. The information in this report can be republished as long as GfK is quoted as the source.

GfK Retail and Technology

4/2010

49

GfK Market Insight (GMI)

GfK. Growth from Knowledge Contact : GfK.InfoAsia@gfk.com Mr Stanley Kee Regional Commercial Director, Asia