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March 2, 2010
Strictly Private and Confidential
Table of Contents
1. Introduction 2. PREPA is a Fundamentally Strong Credit 3. PREPAs Stabilization Plan 4. Reduce Operating Costs in Line with Demand 5. Reducing Cost of Electricity Through Fuel Diversity 6. Improve Liquidity and Reduce Accounts Receivable 7. Historic and Projected Financial Operations 8. Finance Plan 9. Strengths of the PREPA Credit 1 4 10 14 18 27 32 35 38
1. Introduction
Presentation Participants
PREPA Miguel A. Cordero Lpez Angel L. Rivera Santana Josu A. Coln Ortiz Martin V. Arroyo Otoniel Cruz Carrillo Jos A. Roque Torres Executive Director Director of Planning & Environmental Protection Director of Generation, Transmission and Distribution Chief Financial Officer Client Services Director Treasurer
Government Development Bank Carlos M. Garcia Fernando L. Batlle Chairman and President Executive Vice President, Financing and Treasury
Introduction
Introduction
Introduction
Who is PREPA?
Million Customers
LA
5,839 MW
50 40 30 20 10 0
SR ee P C pr LA . D W P PA A D PS LI PA YP JE A PP PR LC R C E N N A
283
Source: American Public Power Association. 2009-10 Annual Directory & Statistical Report 4 PREPA is a Fundamentally Strong Credit
PR
Sa nt
Credit Strengths
Many elements make PREPA a very strong credit.
1. Absolute monopoly; sole provider of an essential service 2. Large and growing customer base 3. No customer concentration risk 4. $4 billion of annual revenues representing the broad-based Puerto Rican economy 5. Independent rate setting 6. Pass-through in customer rates of volatile fuel and purchased power expenses 7. Strong reserve margin of 50% of peak load 8. Independent of the central government, but unique among US municipal power agencies with the support of the GDB 9. Conservative debt structure with downward sloping debt profile and no senior bond exposure to variable rates
Balanced mix of residential, commercial, governmental and industrial customers No customer concentration risk Industrial customers, the only customer class that realistically could self generate or purchase from an independent power producer, only account for 15% of revenues
Revenues From Broad Based Economy
5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2002 Residential 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Other
Location
Ponce Juncos Guayama Carolina Carolina Dorado Manati Las Piedras Vega Baja Barceloneta Manati
% of Total Sales
0.57 0.55 0.52 0.48 0.30 0.29 0.28 0.26 0.26 0.24 0.22
million dollars
Commercial
Industrial
Government
Fleet of 31 major generating units in 20 facilities located throughout the island Palo Seco outage (602 MW) demonstrated island has adequate reserve margin All units operating as of December 2009 (3 out of 4 units were in service by July 2009) Substantially all repair costs and incremental replacement power covered by insurance
Even with Outage, Stable Availability & Forced Outage Rates
Fiscal Year Avg Equivalent Avail. Equiv. Force Outage (with AES and (without AES and Ecoelec.) Ecoelec.) Reserve Margin (with AES and Ecoelec.)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20071 20081 20091
78% 80% 80% 81% 82% 85% 87% 84% (89%) 80% (88%) 76% (82%)
56% 53% 49% 59% 53% 49% 46% 32% (49%) 34% (51%) 57% (75%)
MW
05
06
07
02
04
03
08
09 20 20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Peak Load
Reserve Margin
10
YT
1. Reduce operating costs in line with sales 2. Reduce and refocus the construction improvement program away from new generation and towards transmission and distribution efficiency 3. Burn less expensive fuel and retire and replace inefficient plants 4. Reduce receivables These steps will help PREPA lower the cost of power, restore liquidity and maintain adequate margins
10
Management Objectives
PREPA has taken concrete steps to address reduced load, high rates, receivables and liquidity. Business Challenge Recession Has Caused Drop in Load Growth and Revenues Management Action Plan $95 million of recurring annual operating cost reductions (2010 budget savings of $86 million) Reduced positions by 416 ($26 million/year savings) with another 1,000 expected from FY 2010 to 2013 Reduced retiree health care benefits by $46 million Reduced overtime and miscellaneous expenses by $23 million Reducing and refocusing CIP away from new generation and toward fuel diversification and transmission and distribution reliability Fuel Cost Volatility Has Impacted PREPA Rates PREPA plans to reduce oil consumption from 68% today to 48% in 2015 to 26% in the long term Plans include conversion of facilities from high cost #2 fuel to natural gas PREPA will contract with renewable energy providers with the long-term goal of increasing renewables mix from 1% to 15% Planning to contract on a fixed price basis for a portion of PREPAs #2 and #6 oil needs to enhance rate stability
11
12
13
14
416 Positions Reduced overtime and misc Changes to retiree health plans Total
$26 23 46 $95
15 15
13% reduction in non-fuel and purchased power O&M thus far in FY 2010 compared with similar period in FY 2009 Reductions in each O&M category (see Page 34)
1 Difference between FY 2008 actual and FY 2013 projected.
46 46
15
Reducing Theft
The PREPA revenue protection program is designed to increase revenues and discourage clandestine connections. Address theft via Increased unannounced door-to-door monitoring Geographic information system Special meter seals Social awareness campaign Administrative Judge to settle disputes Smart grid being implemented With smart meters, will be able to show areas where theft is prevalent Will allow remote turn on and shut off First smart meter replacements to start in early 2010 Initiative expected to generate $50 million improvement in operating margin $16 million improvement budgeted in this year $17.6 million billed in CY 2009
Article from the Daily Sun
February 17, 2010
16
19 83 19 86 19 89 19 92 19 95 19 98 20 01 20 04 20 07
Net Efficiency Average Rates
Efficiency % (sales/generation)
Door-to-Door Monitoring
PREPA recovered $17.6 million in 2009 through its theft prevention program.
PREPA has increased its door-to-door monitoring program, visiting over 35,000 customers in 2009, up 28% from visits in 2008 Over 5,000 cases of theft found More effective enforcement has resulted in $17.6 million in theft-related billings in 2009, up 82% from the prior year
30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Unannounced Visits Cases of Theft
Thousand Dollars
40,000
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 Funds Recovered 2008 2009
17
Guayama (A.E.S)
Contracted: Available: Heat Rate: In Service: 454 MW 454 MW 9.8 2002
Comb.Cycle (NG)
Cambalache
Rated: 247 MW Available: 236 MW Heat Rate: 11.6, 11.7, 11.6, 11.7 In Service: 1997
Mayagez
Rated: Available: Heat Rate: In Service: 110 MW 110 MW 10.2, 10.1 2008
Peuelas (EcoElectrica)
Contracted: Available: Heat Rate: In Service: 507 MW 507 MW 7.5 2000
In addition, PREPA has 70 MW of available capacity from 21 hydroelectric units and 9 MW from 7 Diesel Generators
Notes: Red Indicates purchased power. Heat rate in thousand Btu/kWh.
18
Generation Plans
PREPA plan is to reduce fuel cost volatility, increase fuel diversity and improve generation facility efficiency.
Near Term (0 to 12 months) Enter into fixed price #2 and #6 fuel supply contracts Enter into contracts for renewable capacity Begin development of Costa Sur combined cycle and Aguirre coal fired units
Mid-Term (1 to 3 years) Install infrastructure and begin operation to permit natural gas use at major #2-fired facilities San Juan and Costa Sur combined cycle and Cambalache and Mayaguez gas turbine facilities Begin construction of Costa Sur combined cycle and Aguirre coal fired units
Long Term (more than 3 years) Operation begins at Costa Sur combined cycle and Aguirre coal fired units
19
New capacity additions will replace inefficient oil fired units No net increase in capacity expected, or needed
Proposed Additions and Retirements (in MW) Peak Load 3,604 3,546 3,351 3,223 3,190 3,175 3,206 3,248 3,274 3,290 3,323 3,347 3,370 Fiscal Year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Unit Added Capacity Additions Retired Total 5,363 5,376 5,839 5,839 5,839 5,839 5,934 5,934 5,934 5,742 5,558 5,453 5,332
220 464
184
265
170
500
1 Replaces Costa Sur #3 and 4. Expected to be privately developed and financed. 2 Replaces Aguirre #1 and 2. Expected to be privately developed and financed.
20
2009
Natural Gas 24%
20151
Long-Term1
Oil 26%
Coal 15%
Coal 16%
Oil 48%
Oil 99%
Oil 69%
Coal 29%
1 - Conversions will allow PREPA to burn either LNG or fuel-oil depending on the commodity price. 21 Reducing Cost of Electricity Through Fuel Diversity
Dual Capable Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes N/A N/A
Strategy Burn #6 and Natural Gas Burn #6 and Natural Gas Burn #6 and Natural Gas Convert to Natural Gas Convert to Natural Gas Convert to Natural Gas Convert to Natural Gas Replace with Coal Continue as Coal Fired Continue as Gas Fired
Status Short term: Conversion of units 5 & 6 to dual fuel (#6 and LNG); Medium term plan to replace units 1-4 with combined cycle Medium term plan to install infrastructure to permit use of natural gas Medium term plan to install infrastructure to permit use of natural gas Medium term plan to install infrastructure to permit use of natural gas Medium term plan to install infrastructure to permit use of natural gas Medium term plan to install infrastructure to permit use of natural gas Medium term plan to install infrastructure to permit use of natural gas Longer term plan to replace 500 MW with coal
602 MW
Palo Seco 1,2,3,4
400 MW
San Juan 7,8,9,10
592 MW
Aguirre CC 1&2
Cambalache
Mayagez
Aguirre 1&2
A.E.S
EcoElectrica
22
23
Capital Plan Sources and Uses ($ millions) Capital Plan Sources and Uses ($ millions) 2010 Uses Production Plant Transmission Distribution Other Total Sources Internal Funds Borrowed Funds Total 128 117 75 30 350 0 350 350 2011 104 83 74 39 300 20 280 300 2012 90 86 76 48 300 8 292 300 2013 115 79 90 66 350 3 347 350 2014 162 105 82 51 400 1 399 400 Total 599 469 397 235 1,700 32 1,668 1,700
24
25
Hato Tejas TC $6.9 million Construction Costa Sur Cambalache $74.0 million Evaluation Mayagez UG Circuit $17.7 million In Operation Costa Sur Aguas Buenas $99.0 million Construction
GIS Gas Insulated Substation TC - Transmission Centers and Switchyards UG Circuit Underground Circuit
26
Central government receivables have dropped by 82%, or $117 million, since March 2009 A payment of $42 million was received on January 15, 2010, which covered all past due payments as of June 30, 2009 Current receivables balance is less than the average bill for two months ($14 million/month is average central government bill) FY 2010 electricity consumption has been budgeted with a source of funds identified
Central Government
as of 3/31/09 as of 12/31/09 Department of Education Others Total $94,183,567 48,060,764 $142,244,331 $10,233,320 15,066,728 $25,300,048
27
PRASA is making weekly $3.5 million payments, which approximately cover: Typical weekly bill is $2.5 million Reducing receivables balance by $1.0 million weekly PRASA balance should be eliminated within 18 months Public Building Authority made a $25 million payment in September 2009
PRASA
Public Corporations
as of 6/30/09 as of 12/31/09 $59,559,185 60,007,518 33,724,366 14,641,642 11,273,165 10,592,501 9,676,866 6,361,511 4,578,174 3,888,648 $49,570,021 40,728,201 38,428,464 16,904,926 11,441,540 10,914,073 13,894,303 5,222,526 4,196,253 5,347,256
Public Building Authority Ports Authority Medical Services Administration Cardiovascular Center University Hospitals Tren Urbano Solid Waste Authority Land Authority Highways Authority Subtotal Corporations Other Corporations Grand Total
$234,897,316 $216,909,909
28
Current Debt Available Credit Comments $189,891,755 $10,108,245 $10 million repaid on Feb. 1, 2010. Expected to be taken out with bonds in 2010. 43,558,070 84,609,859 56,961,006 275,000,000 26,171,521 16,363,000 50,000,000 50,000,000 200,000,000 300,000,000 50,000,000 6,104,310 $1,298,659,521 - Being amortized by $9 million/year 11,390,141 38,994 To be taken out with US tax-exempt bonds. - Expected to be taken out with bonds in 2010, 8,828,479 Completion of gas pipeline, being converted for use by PRASA. - Being amortized by $6.325 million/year - To be taken out with US tax-exempt bonds. - Recently reduced by $50 million and remainder to be taken out with US tax-exempt bonds. - Recently extended, to be taken out with Bonds - Recently extended, to be taken out with Bonds and likely to be renewed 100,000,000 To be taken out with Bonds 19,249,744 Paid by central government 150,000,000 $290,127,042
Operational, BPPR Emergency Liquidity, GDB Infrastructure (Muni Settlement), GDB Fuel Oil, BPPR1 Gas Pipeline, GDB Subsidies, BPPR Palo Seco I, GDB Palo Seco II, BBVA CIP, JP Morgan CIP, Citibank1 CIP, FirstBank CIP (Isabela), GDB Swap Collateral, GDB Total
1 Syndicated loan
22-Dec-06 15-May-09 23-Apr-04 30-Jun-08 17-Aug-09 30-Dec-04 13-Sep-07 20-Dec-07 30-Jun-06 13-Sep-06 15-Dec-09 26-Mar-04 26-Nov-08
30-Jun-14 30-Jun-11 30-Jun-10 29-Jun-10 16-Aug-11 30-Nov-13 30-Jun-10 31-Mar-10 30-Apr-10 30-Apr-10 15-Jun-10 30-Jun-18 31-Dec-10
64,208,070 96,000,000 57,000,000 275,000,000 35,000,000 41,585,000 100,000,000 100,000,000 200,000,000 300,000,000 150,000,000 25,354,054 150,000,000 $1,794,147,124
29
Issue 22-Dec-06
Comments
Subtotal Construction Fund CIP, Citibank CIP (Isabela), GDB Subtotal Swap Collateral, GDB Total 26-Nov-08 31-Dec-10 1-Jan-10 26-Mar-04 1-Jan-12 30-Jun-18
$144,530,929
$11,390,141
Repayment of bank lines opens up fresh bank capacity for the PREPA credit PREPA is negotiating new capital and working capital lines New bank lines should materially improve PREPAs liquidity
30
Basis Swap (millions) Basis Swap (millions) Notional amount Market value as of December 31, 2009 in favor of PREPA 1,375 7
Floating Rate Notes (millions) Floating Rate Notes (millions) Notional amount Market value JP Morgan UBS 846 (44) (23) (67)
Collateral posting threshold at current ratings Current collateral requirement If PREPA is downgraded by Moody's or S&P Collateral posting threshold Collateral requirement
As of December 31, 2009 1 Threshold for each swap
50 0
Collateral posting threshold at current ratings Current collateral requirement If PREPA is downgraded by Moody's or S&P Collateral posting threshold1 Collateral requirement
0 0
30 0
50 0
Basis swap has generated $12.4 million of positive cash flow to PREPA since October 1, 2008 Basis swap, PREPA has not posted collateral since July 23, 2009 $150 million dedicated GDB line of credit available to cover swap collateral requirements
31
100
million kWh
PREPA Sales
80
20,000 19,000 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
million mWh
23 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5
99 19
These 5.2% and 5.5% reductions in FY 2008 and FY 2009, respectively, have resulted in lower revenues which are being mitigated by cost reductions in PREPAs stabilization plan.
While PREPAs FY 2010 budget shows a continued reduction in sales, thus far in FY 2010, sales are up.
01
02
03
00
06
07
08
09
04
20
20
20
20
20
05
20
20
20
Total Sales
32
2010 Budget
20
20
20
10
Projected Projected
2012 17,667 23.94 4,299 $ 2,102 735 684 3,521 778 $ 493 $ 1.58 2013 17,700 24.86 4,470 $ 2,230 756 682 3,668 802 $ 538 $ 1.49 2014 17,827 25.40 4,597 2,362 728 681 3,771 826 575 1.44
1.70 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 2007 2008 Revenues 2009* Expenses 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Debt Coverage
Million Dollars
33
Operating Expense are Down in FY 2010 ($000s) 7/20081/2009 38,658 103,685 140,035 69,278 138,754 490,410 7/2009% 1/2010 Change 35,514 -8% 91,803 -11% 116,607 63,633 119,289 426,846 -17% -8% -14% -13%
Other production Transmission and distribution Maintenance Customer accounting and collection Administrative & general Total O&M, excl. fuel & purch. power
34
8. Finance Plan
Plan of Finance
Transaction funds FY 2010 CIP, repays loans used to fund prior CIP and refunds outstanding bonds providing savings.
Expected Par (in million dollars) 825 375 485 250 1,935
Use of Proceeds Repay loans used to fund construction improvement program Fund FY 2010 construction improvement program Establish fixed payment plan for working capital lines; Likely completed in late FY 2010 Refunding for savings
35
Finance Plan
36
Finance Plan
($ millions)
400
200 0 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 Fiscal Year
Existing after Refunding 2010 Refunding (US TE) DS 2010 New Money (US TE) DS 2011 New Money (US TE) DS 2013 New Money (US TE) DS Net Revenues
1 - Assumes full funding of the 2010 to 2014 CIP, See Page 14.
2010 New Money (US TE) (WC) DS 2010 New Money (Local BABS) DS 2012 New Money (US TE) DS 2014 New Money (US TE) DS Pre-Restructuring DS
37
Finance Plan
Credit Strengths
Independent, island utility Complete monopoly Selling an essential service Independent rate setting power
Stabilization Plan Designed to Help PREPA Lower the Cost of Power, Restore Liquidity and Maintain Adequate Margins
1. Reduce operating costs in line with sales 2. Reduce and refocus the construction improvement program away from new generation and towards transmission and distribution efficiency 3. Burn less expensive fuel and retire and replace inefficient plants 4. Reduce receivables
38
Business Fundamentals Sole provider of an essential service Diverse set of customers; no concentration Full rate setting authority Fuel and purchased power passed through Independent of Commonwealth
Financial Performance Satisfactory coverage Active implementation of cost reduction initiatives Reduced capital improvement program Aggressive revenue protection program
Resource Mix Strong reserve margin Improving reliability Power resource diversification plan Capital program focused on improving reliability and fuel diversification
39
Financing Schedule
February 2010
S M T W T F S 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
March 2010
S M T W T F S 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
40