November 3rd 2011 Paul Gallacher

Technical Analysis
The following report shows some trading ideas focused on FX, however given the popularity of Gold in n the current environment, I have added a Gold chart at the end for your perusal. Prior to going into the charts, lets take a brief view of where we stand in the markets at the time of writing, being 23.09pm London, 23rd November 2011. Mario Draghi debuts with a 25 basis point rate cut (0.25%) Gold Sees first drop in 3 days US ISM Non Manufacturing 52.9 Vs 53.5, US Factory Orders 0.3% Vs -0.2% US Jobless Claims decline Greek Government Continues to operate in a fashion akin to a Circus, Greek PM on the brink, European Financial crisis deepens

Following the FOMC on Tuesday, market reaction was muted, however as we moved into the Asian session Wednesday risk assets began to sell off, with the USD seeing broad based strength. This however quickly began to reverse in European trade Thursday, with traders operating with a degree of appetite towards risk, possibly off the back of an expectation (or possibly a hope!) that the FED will indeed expand its balance sheet. After the ECB rate decision, markets were initially choppy, however ultimately the trading day in Europe, & the US continued in marginally bullish fashion. Note the S&P 500 cash market closed at 1,261.15, just above the 61.% Fibonacci level for the 2011 range (comes in at 1,257.60, however still below the 200 daily moving average at 1,273.30. Current trading conditions are volatile with markets so sensitive to the global underlying fundamentals in play, & as a consequence trading has become a range-trade exercise, where discipline in trade-management, patience with entry & exit levels, & tight risk management controls being absolutely key. Friday will be an extremely important day with US Non Farm Payrolls out, with the data released having real potential to move these markets.

Charts EURUSD 90 Minute timeframe Looking for a move down between 136 & 137, then back towards the mid 137 area, before another leg down towards 135

GBDUSD Looking at a test of 1.6045, then move down to 1.5850 area, back up to 1.5890 level, and then down towards 1.57

AUDUSD Looking for a move down to 1.290, then up towards 1.0540, back to 1.0370, up to 1.0445, & down towards parity

USDJPY Weekly - Not the long term downward trend line here since 2008 A break of this being extremely bullish USD

USDJPY Daily I like the idea of a move down to 76.90, then up towards 79, back down to 76.90, & then up towards 82.20

USDJPY 6 hour chart Note the bullish triangle forming Breaking to the upside being bullish USD

USDCHF Daily - I am looking for Wave 5 to move us up towards the 98 handle -

USDCHF 1 Hour Looking at a move up to 89 area, back down towards 88.30, then up towards 90.80

EURCHF Weekly Not the long term downward trend line in play since late 2009 break to the upside would be bullish EUR

EURCHF Looking for a move to 1.2000, then up towards 1.3235, prior to moving back to 1.2470 I see 1.2000 holding given the SNB Peg stance -

EURCHF 6 hours Good Fib levels to keep an eye on, & the upward trend line -

Gold Weekly Nice upward long term trend channel, very important, and equally nice for traders looking to trade the range This trend channel is ultra powerful given the fundamentals underlying Gold, which remain highly bullish

Gold daily Some key levels to watch, Note the DOJI candle indicated below, with that area being re-tested now The blue 2 line channel is a standard deviation, which is worth keeping an eye on also -

The above is a very brief over-view of some trading ideas I am looking at currently. As ever, they are based on the underlying fundamentals that impact on the movements of these markets, with the technical side being used to implement the actual trades. Any change in the underlying fundamentals would of course lead me to re-evaluate.

I hope you find this useful & that your trading is profitable. Also note where I use a Weekly, Daily, or 6 hour chart I am looking with a slightly longer term view. 1 hour charts very short term. Kind Regards Paul Gallacher

Disclaimer: Intraday Analysis is a blog published simply & wholly for the sharing of information & ideas. Information or opinions provided by us should not be used for investment advice and do not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or financial instruments or any advice or recommendation with respect to such securities or other financial instruments. When making a decision about your investments, you should seek the advice of a professional financial adviser.