Programme: LNG Shipping - Recent Trends and Prospects

Programme
LNG Shipping Recent Trends and Prospects

Mike P. Rowley, Director & General Manager LNG Division Mitsui O.S.K. Bulk Shipping (Europe) Ltd. & Kenneth C. Wilson, External Adviser - LNG Shipping Economics & Commercial Services Gastec 2011 - Amsterdam
Prepared in collaboration with external consultant K. C. Wilson & Associates ~ LNG Shipping Economics & Commercial Advisers, Singapore
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. (MOL) Corporate & LNG Profile

Established: Head Office: Number of MOL Operating Fleet: Revenues (2010): 1884 Tokyo, Japan 905 vessels US$ 14,488 million
Number of MOL Group employees: 9,707
Assets: Debt:
Credit Rating:
US$ 2,006 million US$ 8,331 million

A3 (Moody)
LNG Customers
High LNG shipping supply exceeded demand for last 10 years

Ship Capacity (million m3)
75
60
Fleet Supply (14% p.a.*)
45
30
15
Demand (9% p.a.*)
0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
* CAGR: compounded annual growth rate
Excludes ships below 17,500m3
Result - shipping oversupply leading to lower fleet utilisation

75 100% 95% 60
Fleet Utilisation
90% 85%
45
80%
Surplus
30
75% 70% 65%
Fleet Supply
15
Demand
60% 55%
0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
50%

Also lower freight rates

75 60 45 100% 95% Fleet Utilisation 90% 85% 80% Demand 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 2006 2008 2010
Supply
30 15
Freight rates dropping from above 100,000 dollars per day in the early 2000s to as low as 20s in 2010
0 2000
140 120 100 80 60 40 20
2002
2004
Short-term freights ($000 daily)
0 1Q00 2Q01 3Q02 4Q03 1Q05 2Q06 3Q07 4Q08 1Q10
5
5
65% of surplus shipping in 2008 comprised ships awaiting new projects

Estimates of 2008 make-up of LNG fleet over-supply
65% of tonnage oversupply due to project delays in 2008

Speculatively ordered ships accounted for the rest of the fleet over-supply
Ships Awaiting Projects (65%)
Majors merchants fleets under-use (11%) Speculatively ordered ships (18%) Technical inefficiencies (6%) 70,000m3-plus ships only
Shipping demand is trending to increase progressively through 2016

90
75
Forecast
LNG demand growth is expected to be strongest over the next few years, driven mainly by Asian consumers Asian markets will demand likely underpin shipping
60
CAGR 7.5%
45
Other markets - particularly Latin America and Europe will boost demand Worth noting long haul arbitrage trade may take a more prominent role
30
15
0 2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
The growth of LNG fleet supply is expected to moderate over the next six years
80 70
The additional order requirement to satisfy replacement needs and new exports is equivalent to about 25 standard-size ships, by 2016
Base Case Additional Orders Required Existing Order Book Replacement Orders Existing Fleet (1.3.11)
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year of Delivery
8
8
Newbuild deliveries (excluding any speculative orders) will be much lower

Number of LNG Ships (155,000m3 equivalent units) 60 Excludes ships below 17,500m3
Additional Requirement
50
Replacement Ships
Deliveries
40
30
20
10
0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Delivery Year 2013 2014 2015 2016
Having risen sharply in recent years, fleet supply is forecast to level off
Million m3
90
75
Forecast
Fleet supply growth will flatten due to:
60
- Absorption of the large amount of those existing ships which do not have any employment commitment - Decline in order book - Conversion of increasing numbers of older ships
CAGR 1.5%
45
Supply
30
15
Demand
0 2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
10
Fleet utilization is improving markedly from a low base in 2010

Million m3
90 100% 95% 75
Forecast
90% 85%
Convergence of shipping supply and demand will boost fleet utilization Fleet employment (already increasing since end of 2010) is expected to rise sharply to 2013
60 80% 45 75%
Utilisation
30
Supply
70% 65% 60%
15
Demand
0 2000
55% 50% 2016
2004
2008
2012
11
Few ships are available for charter over the next 12 months
Standard-size ships, post-2000 built Open ships Uncommitted new builds
Bottleneck
200
Chartered
150
Recent multiple fixtures has reduced the pool of uncommitted modern, standard-size ships
100
Short charter to longer-term commitment
Committed new builds
This bottleneck situation is could well last into 2012
Some speculatively-ordered new buildings are available, but other existing modern ships are already assigned to longer-term business
50
Long-term chartered & owner-occupied

0 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16
Ship charter expiry & new building delivery schedule (assumes extension options exercised)
12
Freight rates have risen sharply in response to tightening fleet demand/supply balance
US$1,000 Daily
75
Modern 155,000m3
60
Time charter rates bottomed in June/July 2010, then rose sharply through February this year
45
30
15
6 months 2 years Less than 6 months
0 J10 M10 M10 J10 S10 N10 J11
Source: E.A.Gibson
13
Older ships have been coming off project charter

Standard-size ships, pre-1986 built
40
Open ships
35
A large number of ships built in the 1970s and early-1980s coming off long term trades Best ones will initially trade conventionally for medium term given current high demand Currently 10 - 30 ships fixed or under consideration for FSRU/FSO projects leading to a further tightening in fleet supply and demand Eventually most (FSO/FRSU) will find offshore projects
30
Laid-up ships
25
20
Chartered
15
Expected Conversions
10
Long-term chartered & owner-occupied

Ship charter expiry schedule (assumes options exercised)
0 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16
Assumes static fleet (no scrap sales)
14
MOL positioned to provide diversified LNG transport and offshore (FSO/FSRU)

High quality mature 126k m3 Moss steam ships LNG Capricorn (CAP1) LNG Libra (CAP1) LNG Taurus (CAP2) LNG Aries (CAP2) LNG Aquarius Complementing existing modern fleet run out of London: 1.Steam ships Dukhan (135k m3 - 2004 Moss ) Fuwairit (138k m3 2004 MkIII ) Al Deebel (145k m3 2005 MkIII I) LNG Pioneer (138k m3 2005 NO 96 ) GDF Suez Point Fortin (154k m3 2010 MkIII ) 2.Slow Speed Diesel ships Al Aamriya (210k m3 2008 No 96 ) Murwab (210k m3 2008 No 96 ) Fraiha (210k m3 2008 No 96 ) 3.Tri-Fuel Diesel Electric ships Abdel Kader (177k m3 2010 MkIII ) Ben Badis (177k m3 2010 MkIII )
15
Concluding remarks
Tightening LNG shipping supply / demand = higher freight rates Quality older tonnage can bridge short to medium term requirements During next 2-3 years new vessels will need to be ordered to replace older tonnage and meet growing LNG transportation demand Mitsui OSK Lines well positioned to meet these challenges and explore opportunities that we can develop together with our customers: New projects Older vessels for short medium term conventional business Conversion of older tonnage for Offshore (FSO/FSRU)
16

Programme: LNG Shipping - Recent Trends and Prospects

Caricato da

Informazioni sul documento

Descrizione originale:

Titolo originale

Copyright

Formati disponibili

Condividi questo documento

Condividi o incorpora il documento

Opzioni di condivisione

Hai trovato utile questo documento?

Questo contenuto è inappropriato?

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

Programme: LNG Shipping - Recent Trends and Prospects

Caricato da

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

Programme

LNG Shipping Recent Trends and Prospects

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. (MOL) Corporate & LNG Profile

Number of MOL Group employees: 9,707

US$ 2,006 million US$ 8,331 million

High LNG shipping supply exceeded demand for last 10 years

Fleet Supply (14% p.a.*)

Demand (9% p.a.*)

0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

* CAGR: compounded annual growth rate

Excludes ships below 17,500m3

Result - shipping oversupply leading to lower fleet utilisation

75% 70% 65%

0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Excludes ships below 17,500m3

Also lower freight rates

Short-term freights ($000 daily)

0 1Q00 2Q01 3Q02 4Q03 1Q05 2Q06 3Q07 4Q08 1Q10

65% of surplus shipping in 2008 comprised ships awaiting new projects

65% of tonnage oversupply due to project delays in 2008

Ships Awaiting Projects (65%)

Shipping demand is trending to increase progressively through 2016

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Newbuild deliveries (excluding any speculative orders) will be much lower

Fleet supply growth will flatten due to:

Fleet utilization is improving markedly from a low base in 2010

55% 50% 2016

Short charter to longer-term commitment

Committed new builds

This bottleneck situation is could well last into 2012

Long-term chartered & owner-occupied

6 months 2 years Less than 6 months

0 J10 M10 M10 J10 S10 N10 J11

Older ships have been coming off project charter

Long-term chartered & owner-occupied

Assumes static fleet (no scrap sales)

MOL positioned to provide diversified LNG transport and offshore (FSO/FSRU)

Potrebbero piacerti anche