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"The field of management's devotion to theory is too much of a good thing," says d.c. Hambrick. Part of the problem is caused by the misunderstanding and misuse of the term "theory," He says. Language plays an important role in scientific research, He writes.
"The field of management's devotion to theory is too much of a good thing," says d.c. Hambrick. Part of the problem is caused by the misunderstanding and misuse of the term "theory," He says. Language plays an important role in scientific research, He writes.
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"The field of management's devotion to theory is too much of a good thing," says d.c. Hambrick. Part of the problem is caused by the misunderstanding and misuse of the term "theory," He says. Language plays an important role in scientific research, He writes.
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Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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Vol. 22, No. 5, SeptemberOctober 2011, pp. 13121321
issn1047-7039 eissn1526-5455 11 2205 1312 http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/orsc.1100.0636 2011 INFORMS Ive Got a Theory PaperDo You?: Conceptual, Empirical, and Theoretical Contributions to Knowledge in the Organizational Sciences Zur Shapira Department of Management, Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, New York 10012 zshapira@stern.nyu.edu I s the eld of managements devotion to theory too much of a good thing? [Hambrick, D. C. 2007. The eld of managements devotion to theory: Too much of a good thing? Acad. Management J. 50(6) 13461352]. In his paper, Hambrick criticizes the practice employed by many journals in the management eld that requires that papers submitted for publication make a strong theoretical contribution. I argue that part of the problem is caused by the misunderstanding and misuse of the term theory. To clarify the status of theory, I review three modes of research formulation in the organizational sciences: theories, models, and conceptual frameworks. Language plays an important role in scientic research. I therefore discuss two research languages that are used in research in management that appear to be the farthest apart: mathematics, which is the language of precision; and narratives, which is the language that provides rich data. I provide a discussion of the use of mathematics in theory development and the use of narratives in research development. The two languages and three modes of research formulation are needed for contribution to knowledge, which should be the main goal of research in organization science. Key words: theory; model; mathematics; narratives History: Published online in Articles in Advance April 29, 2011. There is nothing so practical as a good theory. (Lewin 1952, p. 169) In a provocative article, Hambrick (2007) laments the management elds devotion to theory. He criticizes the practice employed by many journals in the eld that requires that papers submitted for publication make a strong theoretical contribution. He points at a confusing state of affairs in the management eld where an author who conducts valuable empirical research meets a bar- rier upon submitting a paper to a journal. Often, authors are told that because there is no contribution to theory in their paper, it has to be rejected. As Hambrick (2007) notes, this practice does not help the science of organi- zations and can hinder its progress (see also Corley and Gioia 2011). Although I am familiar with this practice of journals requiring contribution to theory, it appears that the word theory is misused in the management eld, and this may be part of the reason journals tend to reject manuscripts that otherwise would not be rejected. I share his concern but nevertheless think that the seed of the problem lies in an erroneous understanding of what a theory is. A theory signies the highest level of inquiry in sci- ence. It is a formulation of the relationships among the core elements of a system of variables that ideally is arrived at after overcoming multiple hurdles and sev- eral stages of renement and empirical testing. Unfor- tunately, I have come to realize that the term theory paper is often used in the management eld merely to describe a nonempirical paper. I have often heard a man- agement scholar saying that he or she has a theory paper, but in many such papers there was no theory, which came on top of having no data. This, along with state- ments about contribution to theory being a necessary condition for publication in top management journals, creates real confusion as to what the term theory actu- ally means in the management eld. In the rst part of this piece, I attempt to clarify the importance of theory by discussing different forms of research formulation (conceptual frameworks, models, and theories) that pro- vide a wide range of approaches to formalizing research in an increasing level of rigor. Research, whether empirical or theoretical, is expressed in a language for description and commu- nication. The second part of the paper is devoted to two major languages that are often used in management research: mathematics and narratives. I describe each language and show how using each can lead to scien- tic development. These two languages are at the two extremes of formality, where mathematics is a language that describes ideas in a very precise way but at times at the expense of the richness of a domain. Narrative is a form of research language that provides rich descriptions but often at the expense of precision. I end this paper by 1312 Shapira: Conceptual, Empirical, and Theoretical Contributions to Knowledge in the Organizational Sciences Organization Science 22(5), pp. 13121321, 2011 INFORMS 1313 arguing that the goal of scientic research in manage- ment should be contribution to knowledge that is based on a combination of conceptual, theoretical, and empiri- cal work. Research in management often starts by identi- fying questions that are observed in the eld where nar- ratives provide the description of the phenomena under investigation. When possible, a conceptual framework emerges that may lead to model development and ulti- mately to theory construction. The latter often requires the use of a more formal language such as mathematics. Theories, Models, and Conceptual Frameworks A Theory: A Coarse Denition and a Few Examples The scope of this paper does not allow a thorough dis- cussion of what a theory is, and this presentation is brief and incomplete. Yet this discussion is needed so that one can know whether he has a theory or not, as well as to motivate the comparison to other avenues of knowledge creation (models and conceptual frame- works) and to discuss how empirical research is linked to theory development. A theory is commonly dened as an analytic structure or system that attempts to explain a particular set of empirical phenomena. Theories dif- fer in depth and scope; there are theories that attempt to cover many phenomena, such as Einsteins attempt to develop a general theory that would unite gravitation with quantum mechanics. In the social sciences, Simon devoted the latter part of his life to developing a gen- eral theory of problem solving. In contrast, an exam- ple of a more specic theory in the social sciences is Tverskys (1972) elimination by aspects, which is a very elegant theory of choice that makes clear assump- tions and derives specic predictions, several of which were tested in different choice contexts (see Fader and McAlister 1990). Prospect theory (Kahneman and Tver- sky 1979) is another example of a theory of choice that has had an enormous inuence in the social sciences. Without attempting to survey the rich literature on the essence of theory in the philosophy of science (see, e.g., Lakatos 1978, Popper 1959), I highlight a few general aspects of the notion of theory. (1) A theory is constructed to provide a coherent explanation of a set of observed phenomena. (2) Theories make assumptions and, based on them, draw logical derivations. Those derivations lead to spe- cic predictions regarding the subject matter with which the theory deals. (3) A theory should be formulated in a way that makes it clear how it can be refuted or falsied. (4) The ultimate test of a theory is achieved by com- paring its predictions to reality. Thus, a theorys predic- tions are subject to a false/true test. Of the many theories in the natural sciences, perhaps the most famous is the relativity theory in physics. Many think of Einsteins theory of relativity as one of the greatest achievements in scientic inquiry. Its publica- tion (both the special and the general versions) changed an entire way of thinking and conducting research in physics and in the sciences in general. Relativity theory was not just a theorem about a unique relation between two variables; rather, it dened a four-dimensional space that led to a new way of thinking about the relation between time and space. It stated that there is an upper limit to speed, which is the speed of light and is constant. Based on its assumptions, several testable hypotheses and predictions were derived. One of these derivations, E = MC 2 , is perhaps the most well-known equation in science at large. General relativity theory predicts that light bends when it travels in the neighborhood of mas- sive objects such as the sun, a phenomenon known as light deection. This prediction was tested by measuring the change in position of stars on the celestial sphere as they passed near the sun. Eddington and his collab- orators performed the measurement in 1911 during a total solar eclipse simultaneously in the cities of Sobral, Cear, Brazil and So Tom and Prncipe on the west coast of Africa (e.g., Dyson et al. 1920). The measure- ments conrmed Einsteins predictions and corroborated his theory. An example of an inuential theory in the social sciences is game theory (see Von Neumann and Morgenstern 1944). Its inuence increased over the years, and it became a major building block of modern economics. The formal ways in which game theory deals with competition, cooperation, coordination, matching, and more led Varian to state, Indeed, most economic behavior can be viewed as a special case of game the- ory (1992, p. 259). I think that part of the confusion among management researchers concerning the need for and evaluation of theoretical work is caused by the use of the term the- ory in a very loose sense. For example, in the social sci- ences utility theory is a term used to describe rational choice in general and is not a theory in the narrow sense of the word. A more peculiar misnomer is organiza- tion theory, which actually describes a level of analysis rather than a theory per se. What role have theories played in the development of the organization sciences, and what role should they play going forward? The eld of organizations actually emerged with empirical and observational studies (see, e.g., Taylor 1911), and it was mainly Cyert, March, and Simon who transformed the body of observations into a theoretical framework. The books Administrative Behav- ior (Simon 1947), Organizations (March and Simon 1958), and A Behavioral Theory of the Firm (Cyert and March 1963) have had a tremendous effect on the eld. The Carnegie approach pushed the eld of organizations Shapira: Conceptual, Empirical, and Theoretical Contributions to Knowledge in the Organizational Sciences 1314 Organization Science 22(5), pp. 13121321, 2011 INFORMS into the realm of science by making assumptions, deriva- tions, and predictions and by using mathematics and for- mal language to describe the relations among variables. The above discussion of theory ts nicely the Carnegie School tradition, where theories, models, and conceptual and empirical work led to a major development in the organization sciences. A Model Models are important tools in scientic inquiry. A model implies a formulation that (1) derives predictions based on clearly specied assumptions, and (2) is precise and falsiable. The major differences between a theory and a model are the rst and fourth points described previously as the criteria for theory. That is, a model does not necessar- ily need to provide an explanation of the phenomenon it deals with and does not need to make a claim about truth. Therefore, a test of a model is not one of a true/false type but rather a kind of a usefulness test. For example, Regnier and Harr (2006) developed a model for predicting hurricane landfall based on histori- cal data on tropical cyclone tracks and data derived from existing forecasts to estimate the likelihood of landfall at a particular location. The goal of the model was to help local decision makers by evaluating the trade-off between lead time and forecast accuracy, estimating the value of waiting for improving forecasts to reduce the frequency of false alarms. Such a model can be eval- uated in terms of saving life and damage as well as cost of operations. The model can prove useful for a decision maker who needs to decide on evacuation. It is not intended to explain the way hurricanes develop, from which the location of landfall can also be theo- retically derived; this is an endeavor that is much more complicated. Another example relates to the heliocentric model of the planets movements. Kepler modied the exist- ing model, and his adjusted model, which was based on extensive data on the location of the planets, did a very good job of predicting planetary motions. How- ever, Kepler did not provide a clear explanation of what was behind his equations. Indeed, his model lost its eminence when Newton developed his theory of grav- itation (see Livio 2009). Keplers equations, however, could be derived from Newtons theory. Hence, looking at Keplers equations from a Newtonian perspective pro- vides an example of a theoretical modelthat is, a model derived from a theory rather than from data. Examples about the use of models based on data rather than a theory are found in the social sciences as well. One such arena has been the explanation and pre- diction of the effects of star actors on the nancial suc- cess of movies. The data-based models by Ravid (1999) and Elberse (2007) provide sophisticated analyses for the prediction of future movies success. Lampel and Shamsie (2000) propose a wider theoretical background that examines how information asymmetries inuence competitive dynamics in the lm industry to explain the determinants of as well as predict the success of new lms. Another example is depicted by recent develop- ments in imaging (functional magnetic resonance imag- ine) that do not go beyond correlational analysis, and there is no theory at the moment that can explain the complex processes in the brain that cause blood to ow from one area to another. However, as more data get col- lected, better predictions will be made about the associ- ation between responses to different questions and activ- ity in different domains of the brain. Examples of useful models abound in the natural sci- ences and are very common in economics. One area that has developed over the years at Carnegie and other places is the use of computer simulations to study pro- cesses of thinking (Newell and Simon 1972). Realizing that the use of mathematics for arriving at closed-form solutions is rather restrictive in studying phenomena such as human and social behavior, many researchers built simulation models to get better insights about social and organizational phenomena (see Burton and Obel 2011). Models are precise, especially if they are formulated in mathematical terms. At times, however, researchers approach new domains that do not allow them to use precise symbols to describe the phenomena they are studying. In such cases, researchers try to build conceptual frameworks, which may not be as specic as models but may provide a general system of organizing the observations. Conceptual Frameworks Theories and models differ from conceptual frameworks in that they make testable predictions. Work of this type may not be possible in, say, an initial stage of scientic inquiry in a new domain. At such a stage, scientists may seek to develop frameworks that help organize empirical observations by using coherent and meaningful frame- works. Such frameworks allow scholars to make sense of the eld and understand its boundaries, major nd- ings, and challenges. Thus, in comparison with the four criteria for theory and the two for a model described above, the criteria for a conceptual framework are that it (1) provides a structure to organize observations, and (2) describes the structure in a clear and precise manner. Research in the biological and life sciences often uses classications and categorizations as a main research method. Paleontologists use such methods to create order among many different phenomena. The original study of the evolution of species (Darwin 1859) started with a collection of empirical data and developed a more comprehensive framework to account for the data. This Shapira: Conceptual, Empirical, and Theoretical Contributions to Knowledge in the Organizational Sciences Organization Science 22(5), pp. 13121321, 2011 INFORMS 1315 framework had an immense inuence on thinking in both the biological as well as the social sciences. It serves as an example of a domain that was developed in an inductive manner into a comprehensive framework. A recent treatise by Dawkins (2009) argues that the gen- eral framework of evolution is superior to many other perspectives on the development of life that are based on nonscientic assumptions. Organizational change can serve as an example of a conceptual framework in organizational behavior and theory. This framework helps describe the many forces that operate in organizational settings, some of which facilitate change while others do not. Lewins (1952) eld forces analysis does a great job of providing a schematic representation of such forces. There are other treatments of organizational change, and some models of change have been developed. However, although the framework may be useful in analyzing cases of change in organizations, it has not developed into a coherent set of assumptions, derivations, and predictions as game theory has, for example. A conceptual framework does not necessarily make strong assumptions the way a theory does, and it may not be as tightly structured as a mathematical or a computa- tional model. Yet a good conceptual framework may lead to new insights and may open new avenues of thinking on particular phenomena. Its ultimate test, so to speak, is whether it leads to a better organizing of the major issues in a particular domain of inquiry. Such organization can enhance our understanding and may eventually lead to developing models for prediction and ultimately to the- ories that explain the nature of the domain of inquiry. 1 The Role of Language in Scientic Progress and Theory Development Researchers need to communicate with each other about their ideas, conjectures, and ndings. To communicate, they need to use a common language that they and their community understand. There are different languages that can be differentiated by the degree to which they are precise on one hand and rich on another. Usually, the richer a description, the less precise it is, and vice versa. Consider, for example, research in strategic man- agement that attempts to analyze variations in perfor- mance among rms. Authors of such papers can say, for example, that variable X affects performance so that the higher X is, the higher the performance is. Such a state- ment is not as precise as writing performance =2X. The quantitative expression is more precise than the verbal statement. Of course, the researcher can say it in words: As X increases, performance increases in a double-fold manner; this is precise but clumsy. The mathematical expression is more parsimonious and provides a better t with Poppers (1959) criteria for scientic expressions. At the other end lies a situation where a researcher is observing a group discussion in a foreign country in a language that he or she does not understand. To communicate the essence of his or her observations, the researcher will need to use a narrative format that will be relatively rich but may not be precise. Verbal theories are much more ambiguous than mathematically formulated theories (Harris 1976), but in some situations richness may be a better way to describe the research context than a more precise language. In constructing theories, models, and conceptual frameworks, a researcher can use different languages such as mathematics, simulations, and graphical tools, as well as verbal description and narratives. According to classical treatment by philosophers of science (Pop- per 1959), a theory has to be parsimonious; that is, if two theories are offered for explaining the same phe- nomenon, and do so with a similar degree of success, the one that is more concise and shorter is thought to dominate the other. Ultimately, this view almost man- dates that the language of science be mathematics and that theories should be formulated with mathematical tools. Such an argument can be valid in situations where the domain of investigation is mature enough to allow precision in theorizing. When a domain of inquiry is still in its nascent stage, the use of mathematical tools may be premature, and the development of knowledge at such a stage may benet more from the use of nar- rative and other less formal tools. When such a domain develops further, mathematics can be used to help sort out good theories from weaker ones. Researchers should use a language that matches the stage of the problem they are studying. Descriptive narratives should be used in the rst stage of a eld study (along with the col- lection of hard facts/data) to get the perspectives of the participants on the phenomenon. As the research project makes progress and certain patterns emerge from the data, models can be developed using formal language such as mathematics. The discussion in the rst section follows arguments made by the psychologist and philosopher of science Meehl (1967), who subscribed to the Popperian tradition and argued that science makes progress in a cumulative manner. He claimed that in an advanced eld of science such as physics, theories make point predictions about parameter values. Theory development progresses by attempting to surmount hurdles that are increasingly dif- cult. To do this, theories need to be formulated mathe- matically, and tests of a theory should be framed as tests of specic point predictions. If a theory passes a test namely, that a point prediction has been supportedthat point becomes the null hypothesis in future tests. That point prediction is contrasted against an even more dif- cult point prediction arrived at by developing the the- ory further. This approach can be contrasted with the testing of no-difference null hypotheses. Hypotheses of this type can be rejected by merely increasing the sample size. Thus, although signicant differences can Shapira: Conceptual, Empirical, and Theoretical Contributions to Knowledge in the Organizational Sciences 1316 Organization Science 22(5), pp. 13121321, 2011 INFORMS be found, many times these differences are meaning- less, and the value of engaging in testing no-difference hypotheses for accumulating knowledge remains dubi- ous. That is, meaningfulness is often sacriced for sig- nicance, whether it is applied in comparing two groups in an experiment or in testing the difference of a coef- cient from zero in regression analysis. Mathematics: The Language of Precision in Scientic Inquiry The process of knowledge accumulation in management research is interrupted at times when multiple theories and models within the same or related domains coexist, even though they make different predictions regarding the same behavior. This raises the question of how we can know which theory is correct or how to test and advance either theory or both. In this section I suggest a way of testing the predictions of such theories and show that the language of mathematics provides great help in this process. To illustrate my perspective, I have chosen Lockes goal-setting model and Atkinsons (1957) the- ory of achievement motivation. Locke (1968, p. 167) has asserted that studies based on goal setting atly con- tradict his [Atkinsons] theory. Before turning to how empirical research can address this contention, I briey describe both approaches. Both Atkinson and Locke make predictions about where an individuals performance reaches its maximum. Atkinson drew on expectancy theory and focused on task difculty, whereas Lockes model describes motivation to perform based on intentions and goals. A main dif- ference between the two is their prediction of the point where performance reaches its maximum. Atkinsons mathematical presentation of achievement motivation theory provides a point prediction of 0.50 for the prob- ability of success on a task that high-need achievers would choose; they would eventually reach their best performance there. The theory is represented by the fol- lowing formula: T =(M s M o] ) P s (1 P s ), (1) where T is the tendency to engage in achievement- related tasks; M s and M o] are the motives for success and avoidance of failure, respectively; P s is the probabil- ity of success on the task; and (1 P s ) is the incentive value of success. Lockes (1968) goal-setting model predicts that if peo- ple accept goals assigned to them, then their perfor- mance would be at the maximum on difcult goals. It can be stated differently as follows: the harder the goal, the better the performance is. Because the goal-setting model does not provide a point prediction, it is difcult to compare the predictions of this theory with those of Atkinsons achievement motivation theory. Comparing the Theories Predictions. One way to compare these theories predictions is by testing the fol- lowing hypotheses: H 0 : Performance on achievement tasks reaches its maximum at P s =0.5, H 1 : Performance on achievement tasks reaches its its maximum at P s -0.5, (2) where P s is the probability of success on the task. The null hypothesis (H 0 ) represents Atkinsons prediction, and H 1 is consistent with Lockes prediction that perfor- mance is higher on more difcult goals (tasks). Although this approach is familiar, there are some issues that should be considered. According to Meehl (1967), in comparing two theories whose predicted dis- tributions have means of M 1 and M 2 , the following prob- lems arise. Problem 1. Point null hypotheses (e.g., H 0 : M 1 = M 2 , or H 0 : M 1 M 2 =0) are always (quasi) false as sig- nicant differences can be detected only due to a large sample size. Problem 2. A directional null hypothesis (e.g., H 0 : M 1 - M 2 ) does not generate a theoretically expected distribution because it is not precise (Cohen 1988; Meehl 1967, p. 105). Employing the directional null hypothe- sis creates no hurdle for a theory to surmount, which is a major criterion for theory development. In other words, the prior probability of rejecting H 0 in favor of H 1 as formulated in (2) approaches 1/2. Put differently, because H 0 is always (quasi) false, properly run experi- ments are going to provide data that would support H 1 in about half of the cases, regardless of whether it has any merit. In an alternative approach to comparing the theories predictions, one could also treat Lockes model as pre- dicting that peoples performance would be best when the probability of success is, say, only P s =0.30. In such a case, the following hypotheses could be tested: H 0 : Performance on achievement tasks reaches its maximum at P s =0.5, H 1 : Performance on achievement tasks reaches its maximum at P s =0.3. (3) Equation (3) is superior to testing the theories with a directional null hypothesis as described in (2). Yet the predictions described in (2) cannot provide support for Lockes model over Atkinsons, or vice versa. I realize that there may be people who subscribe to the goal- setting approach who may not accept the idea that it can be described by a hypothesis of the type H 1 : P s =0.3. Following Meehl (1967), I recommend an alternative procedure in which the predictions of the two theories are compared using a third theory that was developed in the same domain of inquiry. This approach enables a researcher to generate point predictions that are consis- tent with but not generated by the original theory. Shapira: Conceptual, Empirical, and Theoretical Contributions to Knowledge in the Organizational Sciences Organization Science 22(5), pp. 13121321, 2011 INFORMS 1317 Comparing the Two Theories Using Point Predictions. In the absence of alternative point predictions for at least one of the two theories, theories can be compared using a third model, like the one I developed (Shapira 1976, 1989). The model, developed in the area of intrinsic motivation, describes choice behavior in an expectancy theory framework. Specically, Shapira (1976) proposed an intrinsic valence function that relates in an acceler- ated manner to task difculty. Mathematically, intrinsic valence (denoted I v ) is described by I v =c(1 P ] ) k , (4) where P ] is the probability of successful performance on a given task ], c is some constant that depends on the unit of measurement, and k is an individual differences parameter. Assuming an expectancy-valence framework, the intrinsic force toward choosing a particular task ] is represented by E ] =P ] c(1 P ] ) k , (5) where P ] is the probability of success on the specic task ]; E ] is a family of functions that depends on P ] and k, and it gets its maximum at P ] = 1,(k + 1) (see Figure 1). Equation (5) proposes a possible reconciliation of Atkinsons and Lockes formulations. In terms of the predicted choice of a task, Atkinsons formulation is a special case of Equation (5) (when c = M s M o] , and k =1). Because most studies in the achievement theory paradigm showed that subjects choose tasks whose prob- abilities of success range from 0.25 to 0.40, the aver- age value of k in those studies was between 1.5 and 2. Lockes model can be interpreted (for this example) as implying a particular value of k, which can be derived from Equation (5). The family of functions described Figure 1 Motivation as a Function of Task Difculty 0.10 F j (k=4) F j (k=3) F j (k=2) F j (k=1, Atkinsons model) Probability of success F o r c e
t o w a r d
a c t i o n - m o t i v a t i o n 0.20 0.25 0.33 0.50 0.90 0.75 Source. Reprinted from Organization Behavior and Human Deci- sion Processes, Vol. 44, Zur Shapira, Task choice and assigned goals as determinants of task motivation and performance, 141165, 1989, with permission from Elsevier. in Equation (5) all rise to (different) maximum levels and then decline as a function of the probability of suc- cess. Thus, one way to describe Lockes model in the above formulation is to suggest that very difcult goals may not be accepted. This would lead to a predicted maximal performance on levels that are more difcult than Atkinsons model predicts, though not extremely difcult. Mathematics as a language can help in the cumula- tive development of a scientic domain by sorting out the better theories and providing them with increasingly difcult hurdles to surmount. However, several areas in management are not developed to the degree that they can be subject to such a process. Before developing the- ories, knowledge should be accumulated based on the data and the development of a conceptual framework to organize the cumulated knowledge. At the nascent level of inquiry, other methods such as ethnographic research and the use of narratives would be more appropriate for scientic development. In the next section I provide arguments and a short example in favor of using narra- tives in management research. Narrative: The Rich Language of Scientic Inquiry The perspective on empirical research presented in the section that dealt with the use of mathematics is not intended to diminish the importance of narrative anal- ysis in building a body of knowledge in management research. In fact, efforts need to be made to ensure that the precision of mathematics does not become the standard by which all empirical work is judged. Grice (1989), for instance, proposed maxims about how con- versations should be conducted, such as for quality and quantity, and suggested that when people respond to each other in a conversation their replies should be brief, transparent, relevant, and truthful. In a sense, these are quite similar to the requirements I proposed at the beginning of this paper for theory formulation: theory should be coherent, logical, falsiable, and subjected to a true/false test. Extant work and my own experience suggest that the richness of narrative-based investiga- tions (see, e.g., Argyres 1999, Feldman and Orlikowski 2011, Garud et al. 2011, Zbaracki et al. 2004) plays an important role in knowledge accumulation in situations where the relevant data can be expressed only in a ver- bal format. Narrative analysis means a very orderly and precise analysis of the use of words, a process whose intent is to extract meaning from text. An advantage of narratives in ethnographic research is the ability to richly convey the study context. To provide a general argument for the role of narratives, I compare Bruners (1990) discussion of the search for meaning with Simons (1981) search for structure in hierarchical systems. Bruner (1990) provides a compelling analysis of the importance of the narrative approach in studying human thinking. Bruner focuses on the study of the mind Shapira: Conceptual, Empirical, and Theoretical Contributions to Knowledge in the Organizational Sciences 1318 Organization Science 22(5), pp. 13121321, 2011 INFORMS and claims that it should concentrate on meaning mak- ing, which he conceives as the construction of meaning as it is embedded in culture. He argues that the cogni- tive revolution has shifted from meaning to information and from construction to processing and that these are profoundly different matters (1990, p. 4). He adds that computing became the model of the mind, and in place of the concept of meaning, there emerged the concept of computability. Bruners assertion is akin to saying that, in focusing on the technical aspects of information pro- cessing, the study of the mind moved to the analysis of its hardware at the expense of its software. I believe that both aspects are important for the development of management research as a whole. It is intriguing to compare Bruners discussion to Simons (1981) treatise about the sciences of the arti- cial. In such comparison we see the two aspects, for- mal modeling and narratives, that contribute to theory development. Both authors are cognitive scientists, but they take different perspectives on the study of think- ing and the implied role for narrative-based research. Simons framework is about the hierarchical structure of systems, be they natural or social. He attempts to provide a general structure to which hierarchical sys- tems can be mapped or reduced. One of Simons main concepts is modularity, which he uses to describe the differences between two watchmen, Hora and Tempus, who assemble watches but get interrupted by phone calls from their clients. Hora works in a more modular fash- ion and is able to minimize the effects of interruptions on his work in comparison with Tempus. In Simons words (1981, p. 200), The watches Hora made were no less complex than those of Tempus. But he had designed them so that he could put together subassemblies of about ten elements each. Ten of these subassemblies, again, could be put together into a larger subassembly; and a system of ten of the latter subassemblies constituted the whole watch. Hence, when Hora had to put down a partly assembled watch to answer the phone, he lost only a small part of his work, and he assembled his watches in only a fraction of the man-hours it took Tempus. From this narrative, Simon builds a simple formal model in which he assumes a certain probability that each of the watchmen can complete a watch without interrup- tion and shows that it will take Tempus much longer to assemble a watch than it does Hora. Simons discussion provides an impressive description and analysis of the way a hierarchical system can be bro- ken into modular parts and hence become more efcient and amenable to formal modeling. But some additional questions can be raised, such as the manner in which the two watchmen respond to phone calls, who those phone calls come from (there are differences among clients), as well as each watchmans identity in pursuing his work. A management researcher who is interested in study- ing such questions can do so by using narratives rather than formal modeling. The point of the above discussion is not only to contrast formal modeling and narrative approaches but to suggest that the two perspectives can be combined when an attempt is made to study a related phenomenon like managerial work in the eld, an exam- ple of which follows below. A Tale of a Research Project on Managerial Work. I used to teach a graduate course on motivation and pro- ductivity, where I took my students to different locations such as factories and emergency rooms. I was intrigued, while visiting a textile factory for some years, by the question of how foremen supervised two (or more) assembly lines and managed to deal with employee absence as well as to plan the work schedule for the following week. I observed and interviewed the fore- men and listened to their narratives when they explained the way they handled these issues. I took notes of those interviews, and years later I talked about them with my colleague; we then embarked on a project that culmi- nated in a mathematical model that described managerial work in the face of interruptions (Seshadri and Shapira 2001). The seeds of the model were based on the way foremen improvised when some employees were absent; the foremen shifted employees between two lines, for example. These attempts looked like trial and error, but even though they appeared to be random, the fore- men experimented with such moves so that the outcome appeared to be small improvements on some trials and small declines on others. It suggested to me at the time that this trial and error could be modeled by a ran- dom walk, where at each point in time a unit is equally likely to take a step either up or down. When one speeds the (theoretical) process to smaller and smaller steps in smaller and smaller units of time, one arrives at Brown- ian motion. Granted, the Brownian motion model, Seshadri and I developed to describe the effects of interruptions was completely foreign to the foremen I observed. Yet had I told them about the intuitive results of the simulations we ran while testing the model, they would have most likely agreed with them, even though simulation model- ing was not their area of expertise. One may ask why I needed to develop the model. The reason is that it pro- vided me with a useful way to describe the phenomenon and to lay down the basis for further developments in the study of how interactions among tasks and interrup- tions affect the attention of managers and their work. In contrast, the model would have been rather sterile had I not spent the time observing, interviewing, and learning from the foremen narratives. March (2010) pro- poses a similar point when he discusses the interplay of models and stories. He argues that both play a role in learning from experience, especially if the experience is ambiguous. Shapira: Conceptual, Empirical, and Theoretical Contributions to Knowledge in the Organizational Sciences Organization Science 22(5), pp. 13121321, 2011 INFORMS 1319 Discussion This paper raised two thoughts: rst, that research formulation can take on the forms of conceptual frameworks, models, and theories; and second, that there are different languages of research. I presented two of them, mathematics and narratives, which vary in their precision and richness. I believe that these ideas can help resolve part of the problems that Hambrick (2007) nicely identied. I discuss a few issues that underlie these ideas. First, I see organization science as a eld where knowledge is progressing in a cumulative manner. In that respect, the different modes of research formulation I addressed can describe sequential progress in research in a new domain. An example for the beginning of such a research project is provided in Bechkys (2011) work, which focuses on scientists working in forensic labs. This is a nascent project, and Bechkys work is ethno- graphic and uses narratives as a main source of data. At its inception there was no need to develop a formal theory. Later, based on the ndings she has collected, she can move to develop a conceptual framework, to be followed by a model (not necessarily mathematical) and ultimately a theory. This is a cumulative process, and the contribution to knowledge may happen at every stage of this extensive project. Second, scientic theories improve by being subjected to falsication and disproof. In this respect, one can see the benet of using mathematics, because embedded in it is proof (or disproof) by negation. Any theorem or a statement about relations among objects that is made in a general way can be disproved with one contradictory example. The advantage in the parsimony of such a pro- cess is clear. If organization theories are formulated in way that falsication is a clear option, we will have a much better pace of theoretical development. Third, at times I have heard researchers in manage- ment claiming that they proved their theory with empir- ical ndings. Unfortunately, this is not possible. Proofs are possible only in a tightly structured system of rules, such as in logic or mathematics. Any empirical nd- ings in any scientic eld face the unhappy future where contradictory nding can emerge. No ndings can be proved in the face of an uncertain future. We often con- fuse corroboration with proof. Theories become stronger if they surmount more difcult hurdles, and as Meehl (1967) pointed out, this should increase our condence in them. However, more corroboration is not proof. More than that, as Wason (1968) observed, human observers display a tendency known as the conrmation bias, where we look for more positive evidence in support of our claims, ideas, or conjectures. Unfortunately, this is neither efcient nor a logical process. Knowledge progresses much faster by disproof (Platt 1964), so in addition to the idea of opening theories for falsication, we should be critical of studies that we conduct, whether empirical or conceptual, and ask ourselves if collecting more data is warranted and evaluate the data against the logical mechanism of disproof. There are more and more meta-analytic papers that evaluate cumulative research. They are very valuable, so before engaging in a new research project in a domain where meta-analysis has been conducted, one should begin by asking oneself if generating additional data in this domain also means cre- ating new knowledge. Fourth, theory construction should not be confused with quantitative methods for data analysis. Researchers who use advanced statistical methods in econometrics may think that the above arguments about the use of mathematics are achieved by using such methods. The level of sophistication in data analysis in research in the organization sciences is very high. However, there is a fundamental difference between theory construction using mathematical tools and data analysis that also uses such tools. In both cases, the tools can use the same mathematical symbols, but the sophisticated data analy- sis does not substitute for poor model building. In the spirit of Meehls (1967) arguments, we can apply a very sophisticated regression analysis and nd that a certain coefcient is signicantly different from zero, but the question is whether there is meaningfulness beyond the signicance that was veried. We often use more powerful and more sophisti- cated statistical analysis to identify differences among groups. Take, for example, two large groups of people (5,000 each) differing by, say, gender or education. I can guarantee that you will nd a signicant difference in the average height between the two groups, even if the difference would be as miniscule as 0.5 mm. This is an example of a signicant but meaningless result. In contrast, as Meehl (1967) argued, if we have a math- ematical model with a parameter (such as the one in Equation (5)), we can subject the parameter value to increasing scrutiny. For example, if a value of k = 2.5 was found in one study, one can compare it against an alternative value of, say, k =2.8 based on some theoret- ical argument. This way, the mathematically formulated model allows us to make progress in theory develop- ment by subjecting new parameter values to a test. The Newton gravity constant, for example, did not emerge by merely comparing the average speed of different groups of falling objects; it was derived from a theoretical for- mula that combined the mass of and distance between two bodies. There are many constants in the natural sci- ences, and most of them were arrived at by theoretical development combined with precise measurement. There are not many constants in the organizational sciences, perhaps because dealing with human and social variables is more complex. The important goal of theory develop- ment is to nd meaningfulness, not merely signicance. It is the former that leads to scientic progress, with the help of the latter (see also Shaver 2008). Shapira: Conceptual, Empirical, and Theoretical Contributions to Knowledge in the Organizational Sciences 1320 Organization Science 22(5), pp. 13121321, 2011 INFORMS Fifth, even though the current paper emphasizes the idea that theory construction is highly facilitated by the use of mathematical tools, the importance of languages other than mathematics is emphasized as well. An anec- dote serves to illustrate this point. The composer Ludwig Van Beethoven was once asked by a critic what ideas he tried to express in composing a certain musical piece. Beethoven responded by saying that had he been able to write down the ideas in words, he would not have composed the piece. Not every research idea or nding can be expressed in mathematical tools, and insisting on this can be achieved at the expense of an increased loss of meaning. Finally, going back to the problem identied by Hambrick (2007), I personally see theory construction as the highest level of scientic inquiry. However, the orga- nization science eld progresses in a cumulative man- ner. We need more rigorous empirical research, newer conceptual frameworks, models, andat the endbetter theories. The practice of requiring contribution to theory from every submitted paper hinders rather than facili- tates progress. As I pointed out, that part of the prob- lem arises from a misunderstanding of the term theory, which I hold in high regard. We need to look for research that uses appropriate language and provides high-quality empirical studies, conceptual frameworks, models, and theories, as long as it contributes to our knowledge in the organization eld. Acknowledgments This paper benetted from the comments of Linda Argote, Elizabeth Boyle, Gary Dushnitsky, Joseph Lampel, and partic- ipants at the WIP seminar at New York University. The author is also indebted to the late Ralph Alexander and to John Miller for introducing the author to the writings of Paul Meehl. 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Berkley Professor of Entre- preneurship and Professor of Management at the Stern School of Business, New York University. He is a student of managerial cognition, risk taking, and organizational decision-making. CORRECTION In this article, Ive Got a Theory PaperDo You?: Conceputal, Empirical, and Theoretical Contributions to Knowledge in the Organizational Sciences by Zur Shapira (rst published in Articles in Advance, April 29, 2011, Organization Science, DOI: 10.1287/orsc.1100.0636), Lewin (1952) was misquoted. The quote has been corrected to read as follows: There is nothing so practical as a good theory (p. 169).
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