Stanovich 9 Daniel J. Pool Experimental Dr.

Walker The Quest for the Magic Bullet Multiple Causation Just cause there is a correlation between A and B does not mean there is a C that also affects the quest. Correlation is not causation Each correlation helps explain one part of a problem Knowing what affects a behavior, even just one small part of that behavior, can be very useful. Interaction: when a factor that influences behavior has multiple aspects that interact together and affects behavior more than when acting alone. The effect of one variable may depend on the appearance or absence of another. For example life changes act in a combination to affect the outcome of behavior during adolescents. Another example is the presence of psychiatric disorders in children rises by leaps and bounds when combined with different sources of stress. And another example was the idea that poor children matured mentally slower, however if placed in a day care with rich children developed the samethe difference was the environment and not the economic status of the childrens families. Thusly it is important to study many facets of a psychological factor and to collect as much data as possible to ensure that the information is all accounted for This concept that the world is complex is actually rather simple, but in practice much harder to study. It is important that though conceptually we can understand multiple causes we must remember to apply it to real life. Zero-Sum-Games: where one person wins at the loss of another Single Case explanations must be avoidedthis is where we only look at one case as proof of a problem. Criminal behavior is created out of many factorsnot a single cause Another example of this is fixing the economythere are several factors that must occur to fix the economy for the long term, not one magic bullet that can fix all of our problems

This is all to say that we cannot approach every individual with a one-size-fits-all mind set of counseling, we cannot say that one correlation is the only factor that is important, or that any problem can be fixed with one magic bullet. o But each facet and study brings us a little closer to understanding its underlying meaning and how to work with it. When thinking about behavior think in terms of multiple causes. The effects of variables acting together is more powerful than single factors working alone o Gestalt

Stovich Chapter 8: Avoiding the Einstein Syndrome: The importance of Converging Evidence Tabloid break-thrus obscure psychology by making it look like a be-all-end-all science that can fix all problems. Single critical insights are viewed as world saving experiments This false belief impairs the understanding of the science of the mind

The connectivity Principle Big leaps in science do sometimes happen (just not every week at the grocery store) Albert Einsteins theory of relativity is like this because it comes seemingly out of nowhere. Einsteins story is seen as the prototype scientific discovery because that is what media sources show more and what movies show more of, making it look like the common scientific progression Conceptual change in science obeys a principle of connectivity that is absent or, at least, severely limited in the arts

A new theory of science must make contact with previously established empirical facts. If a new theory makes some things reasonable but fails to match up to older theories than it is tossed out.

Einsteins theories seem outlandish when looked at causally but at a second look actually agree at low levels with other theorists such as Newton.

A Consumers Rule: Beware of Violations of Connectivity A breakthrough model of scientific process leads us to believe science doesnt need connectivity When it fact it must deal with the previous theories to be a truly good theory. Either you must show how it is false and you are not, or Dismiss the other theory outright These are Slight-of-hand tricks in scientific writing Speculation that dispenses the connectivity principle is always unsound

The Great-Leap Model in Gradual-Synthesis Model The tendency to view scientific discovery in big leaps leads us to think all scientific discoveries are made in big leaps. However many experiments go into one theory (more than likely dozens of them). Big leaps do occur all together (sometimes) because of increased interest in one area or everything (research-wise) comes together at once from several different experiments or research teams Science reject special knowledge available to only certain individuals, no one is better or worse to know more about science based on their status or virtue.

Psychology is a gradual-synthesis science Psychology (like other sciences) gains more understanding as more research is added to it over time The Einstein view of scienctific discovery is irrelevant to psychology then as well.

Converging Evidence Studies being used in concurrence with each other leads to evidence being put together to form theories or evidence for those theories. Studies being consistent or showing consistent evidence build theories over time.

Dyslexia After the development of a postindustrial information-oriented society, the importance of learning became evident, To children who have trouble reading this can be hard Thus lots of research was done to study dyslexia. Ydlsxeai At first dyslexia was a medical term for people who had trouble reading This did not help treat the problem though The problem came up that reversal errors were present in dyslexics as well as nondyslexics. After several different studies were done the converging evidence generated found that the type of stimuli used caused the reading error not a physical defect.Frank Vellutino, Dyslexia: Theory and Research (1979)

Now lots of studies show that reading problems are more than likely psychological problems and not physical problems

In Summation Science is gradual not all at once. Each experiment is somewhat flawed, so they should be used with more data and more experiments The use of a variety of methods helps to rule out alternative explanations Using lots of studies together makes a theory more reasonable and psychologists more confident in their findings. These ideas back up the idea of connectivity New scientific research must provide explanation of previous works and existing data

Stanovich: Getting Things Under Control The Case of Clever Hans The accuracy of knowledge about moving objects has to do with psychology

Stanovich Chapter Four: Testimonials and Case Study Evidence Experimental/Advanced Research Methods Psychology

The Placebo Effect and the Amazing Randi

Author starts chapter off talking about a psychologist speaking about birth order on Oprah. To every behavioral problem the psychologist says that birth order is the sole reason. Then to back up his findings he talks about case studies in which these findings worked. The problem with this theory is that it is based on single cases with no empirical evidence. Unlike real science in which studies are performed on objective subjects and repeated multiple times to ensure it is true.

Science is Incremental Case studies are a perfect way to start a direction of study. They are often used as a launching pad for research. Testimonials and case studies are not useful in mature stages of study because a single phenomenon cannot confirm or deny a theory. The entire point of the scientific process is to confirm one theory at the disconfirming of another.

Placebos The placebo effect is so strong that it is considered one of the greatest blockades to progress in medical science. The human body is so good at self repair that many cures would appear to aid a patient even when no benefit was bestowed by a caregiver. This is evident with a case study of self-help tapes. o One set of groups had tapes marked self-esteem and another marked memory o Another set of groups had the same tapes but mismarked. o The tapes content did not affect the participants abilities to complete personality surveys. o This study helped to show that placebos are more important than what the actual study was. The problem with this is that a single testimonial then is that a placebo could have had an effect on the outcome of the case. This was the case with the study of Tourette Syndrome: an entire theory of treatment was based on just case studiesthis point the biological study of Tourettes behind.

Vividness Vividness becomes a problem in regards to testimonies versus statistics. A vivid testimony is more convincing than numbers.

The example given is buying a car: reading Consumer Reports on the car and speaking with experts may mean less than speaking to a friend on their personal reports. Another example was college student picking classes: the opinion of students changed more on personal opinion rather than statistical opinions of past students. Vividness affects opinion of danger; parents are scared of having their children abducted rather than car accidentswhen thousands die in car accidents every year versus the little actual abduction yearly. Other studies found that American students believed that individuals with mental retardation had one area they were great in (being savant); whereas British students did not believe thisthese false beliefs match well with the popularity of movies in America depicting idiot-savants rather than Britain. John Paulos, author, wrote that there is a personality trait that is weaker or stronger in people that affects how much personal experience can sway someones emotions versus numerical symbols and has to do with abstract thinking. Another example of this is the coverage of the Vietnam WarAmericans were much more actively against it due to media coverage making it personal.

The Solution to the Vividness Problem Fight fire vividness with fire vividness! Use vivid examples of vivid testimonies not working as intended.

The Amazing Randi The Amazing Randi was a stage magician that tried to teach critical thinking skills. He exposed psychics and magic workers as charlatans One such experiment was to say on TV that he had seen flying saucers overheadsoon many reports flooded the station stating that they too had seen the saucers, Because of people like Randi who can generate personal claims, the personal testimony is not strong enough to be a supporting factor of any theory.

Testimonials and Pseudoscience Pseudoscience uses testimonials to build a case. Though called mostly harmless, pseudoscience medicine can harm individuals who do not seek the medical attention they need.

Whys to Spot Unscrupulous Claims 1. 2. 3. 4. If they offer special treatments They advertise case studies and testimonials. They promise a quick or easy cure. They claim to know the cause of previously unknown problems.

5. They may accuse professionals of deliberately stopping progress. Unverified claims flood the media due to psychology being so closely related (in belief) with pseudoscience. This means the media will publish just about anything to fill space even if it is not backed up Physicist Philip Morrison wrote The danger of pseudoscience is not to science, but to society. Pseudoscience creates false hope that can cause psychological harm when the false hope does not work out. In Randis experiments researchers watched as psychics supposedly bent spoons with their minds, when really they were switching them with bent spoons. Nothing confuses the truth more than too much informationas the real research of scientific psychology getting confused with pseudoscience. Summary Case studies and testimonies are important to start scientific inquiry, but not later theory building. The placebo effect is very strong and can cause a lot of problems for single isolated phenomenon (case studies) This is why testimonies cannot be used to base theories on alone. Vividness of testimonies sways emotions and reasoning of people when making choices. Pseudoscience can mire real science with vivid placebo testimonies.

Discussion Do you believe what the author says is valid? Is the placebo really as strong as they suggest? Consider cases of perceived danger between child abduction versus driving accidents. Can you think of times when you have given into testimonials over rational thought?