MOEF_NATCOM; 14th October 2009

Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to Climate Change: Current State of Knowledge

P.K. Aggarwal and others Indian Agricultural Research Institute New Delhi

Climate change and agriculture in India: ICAR Research Network

A Network on Climate Change and agriculture launched in 2004 for studies on impact assessment, adaptation and mitigation options Current strength: 23 institutes; > 100 scientists Funding: ICAR Many more centers of research now.

ICAR Network on Climate Change and Agriculture: Thematic areas

ICAR Network on Climate change and Agriculture
GHG emissions and mitigation
Live stock Live stock Cows Buffalo Poultry Soil Fertility Erosion Water Rice Upland Lowland Irrigated Deepwater Soil Carbon

Vulnerability

Crops Wheat, Paddy, Potato, Pulses, Cotton, Vegetables Plantation Crops Coconut, apple

Fisheries Marine Fresh water corals

Special Ecosystems Rainfed Coastal Hill

Crop residue burning

Only rice, wheat, soybean and GHG inventory in NATCOM1

Impact assessment of climate change:

Characterizing crop response to carbon dioxide

Impact assessment of climate change:

Characterizing crop response to temperature- TGTs

Source: Singh et al. 2009

Impact assessment of climate change:

Process- based simulation models

Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture

Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm increases yields of rice, wheat, legumes and oilseeds by 10-20%. A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields of wheat, soybean, mustard, groundnut, and potato by 3-7%. Much higher losses at higher temperatures. Productivity of most crops to decrease only marginally by 2020 but by 10-40% by 2100. Possibly some improvement in yields of chickpea, rabi maize, sorghum and millets; and coconut in west coast. Less loss in potato, mustard and vegetables in north-western India due to reduced frost damage.

Projected impacts of climate change on Indian agriculture

Increased droughts and floods are likely to increase production variability Considerable effect on microbes, pathogens, and insects Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock Animal distress due to heat; effects on reproduction Loss of 1.5 million tons of milk by 2020 Imbalance in food trade due to positive impacts on Europe and N.America, and negative impacts on us.

Impact of climate change on wheat

80 Wheat production, million tons 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 2000 2020 Year 2050 2080

Control Adapted

Impact of climate change on potato

16 Loss in potato production, % 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2020 Year 2050

Impact of climate change on length of growing period in rainfed areas

Impact on apples: Declining yields in Himachal due to inadequate chilling

8

Yield (Tons)

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
19 80 -8 19 1 82 -8 19 3 84 -8 19 5 86 -8 19 7 88 -8 19 9 90 -9 19 1 92 -9 19 3 94 -9 19 5 96 -9 19 7 98 20 -9 9 00 -2 00 1
Years
Source: HPKVV/ICAR network

Impact of climate change on coconut yields

-35 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5

+5

+10 +15 +20 +25 +30 +35 +40 +45

RELATIVE YIELD DEVIATION

Districts with white colour were not simulated

Source: Naresh Kumar et al. 2008

Impact on quality: Effect of temperature on basmati rice quality

5.5 5 4.5 L/B ratio 4 3.5 3 2.5 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 Mean temperature during grain growth, C PS-2 P-1121 S. Basmati 2.4 2.2 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 Mean temperature during grain growth, C PS-2 P-1121 S.Basmati

Grain elongation ratio

Source: IARI/ICAR network

Impact on fish: Extension of northern boundary of oil sardine.

The colored lines indicate percentage of All India oil sardine production

1961-1976

1977-1986

0.1% - 1% 1% - 10% 10 % - 25%

1987-1996

1997-2006

25% - 50% >50%

Source: CMFRI/ICAR network

Impact of climate change on milk production: Temperature-Humidity Index

13 Milk yield, l/ha 12 11 10 9 8 7 50 60 70 THI 80 90

Source: NDRI/ICAR network

Uncertainties
Errors in climate models, crop models and data used No links with future water availability No consideration of weather extremes Future technological developments and socio-economic scenarios

Adapting agriculture to climate change:

Need to consider other challenges for future food security

Climate change: A key driver for agriculture

in 21st century

Increasing demand for food

>276 million tons by 2021 as against current production of 230 million tons now

Increasing competition for resources

For land, water, capital, and labour from industry and urban settlements

Increasing variability of global supplies, and prices

Adaptation in agriculture is a continuous process

Agriculture diversity is a manifestation of climatic adaptation Farmers/society have always adapted when allowed by technology availability, their socioeconomic capacity, and economics. Traditional coping strategies: mixed cropping, changing land use, diversification of income sources, migration, Nature of agriculture has changed - from subsistence oriented to market oriented: Need for other adaptation strategies

Increasing adaptive capacity of agriculture to climate change Concerns: Changes in mean temperature and rainfall Variability in weather/climate, particularly unpredictable shortterm weather extremes

How to adapt agriculture to climate change?

1. Assist farmers in coping with current climatic risks
-weather services, agro-advisories, insurance, community banks for seed and fodder

2. Intensify food production systems

-technology and input delivery systems, market links

3. Improve land and water management

-technologies for resource conservation and use efficiency

4. Enable policies and regional cooperation

-incentives to farmers for resource conservation and use efficiency, pricing of resources, credit for transition to adaptation technologies

5. Strengthen research for enhancing adaptive capacity

-varieties, resource conservation technologies, pest surveillance -for improved assessments: mechanism for collection and dissemination of weather, soil, water and agricultural data

Conclusions
Climate change is likely to reduce yields of most crops in long-term. In short-term effects may be small (preliminary results, better field data and models needed). Increased climatic variability could cause significant fluctuations in production even in short-term. Adaptation strategies can help minimize negative impacts. These need greater research, policy and financial support. Costs of adaptation are less understood but likely to be high; costs of inaction could be even higher. Adaptation practices take time to become effective. A crop variety, e.g. takes 10-20 yrs to develop. Need to act now.