INTELLIGENCE FOR TRUE GLOBAL INTEGRATION

Unclassified research paper submitted to the faculty of the National Defense Intelligence College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for MSI 601 22 October 2009

The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense, the U.S., or the U.S. Government

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INTELLIGENCE FOR TRUE GLOBAL INTEGRATION

In a conventional conflict Americas modern operational and tactical intelligence is unsurpassed. American strategic intelligence boasts it is able to penetrate the shrouds of secrecy obscuring other nations military activities and capabilities.1 But American intelligence efforts in Iraq demonstrated an inability to understand and effectively target the peoples hearts and minds. In Americas effort to provide effective global leadership during the ongoing process of globalization, policy leaders need relevant strategic intelligence support which does more than target military capabilities. Policy makers need intelligence which assists them in formulating political, economic, and security policies to avert collisions between states experiencing rising prosperity and those experiencing increasing political and economic isolation and disparity.2

According to liberal theory, continued shifts toward globalized economic and political structures will result in increased international cooperation and integration, and increased economic stability and prosperity for the participating nations.3 However, nations with fewer opportunities to integrate into the globalized systems experience relative exclusion, diminished development, rising relative deprivation, and instability. For such states, adopting liberal policies will be less desirable or viable. Such states relative position will lead them to adopt realist policies to protect their sovereign status against both external and internal forces. Long-term global stability will depend on the willingness of current and rising economic and political power brokers to integrate and bolster economicallydisadvantaged and politically-unstable states. The objective must be to empower

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developing states to establish effective governments and social institutions capable of providing economic opportunities, public services, and political commodities, thus avoiding increased polarization between wealthy prosperous states with liberal agendas and poor struggling states with realist preoccupations. Failure to integrate these states, particularly in a world where American political and military might is waning, is to risk international conflict and economic instability within the globalized system.4

Economic, political, cultural and historical challenges hinder many developing states from effectively participating in globalization. A prevalent challenge is the real or perceived legacy of western colonialism and exploitation. Western colonial powers left these states with dramatic cultural degradation, lost or diminished national identity, and destabilized social and political institutions. The economic and political disparity between previous colonies and the western powers dominate present and prospective perceptions of the inequitable relationships within globalization.5 These perceptions give rise to the view of globalization as a new global order intended to promote continued disparity between the haves and have-nots. President Ahmadinejad expressed these views and concerns in his address to the UN General Assembly on 23 September 2009, I have talked about the two conflicting outlooks prevailing in our world; one that is based on the predominance of its materialistic interests through spreading inequality and oppression, poverty and deprivation, aggression, occupation and deception, and tends to bring the entire world under its control and impose its will on other nations. This outlook has produced nothing but frustration, disappointment and a dark future for the entire humanity.6

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Although the basic liberal tenets of globalization do promise more stable and dynamic economic and political relationships under freer, state-sponsored trade agreements, many developing states have adopted realist policies by nationalizing critical economic sectors to diminish the wests economic and political influence. These actions reflect views of continued disparity and persisting perceptions of western exploitation.7 Brazil, Bolivia, and Venezuela have all increased government control of their energy and defense industries. 8 This nationalization defies free enterprise and signals movement away from globalization.

In the wake of the financial crisis, countries critical of American political and economic policies proclaim an end to capitalistic globalization and herald an era requiring new economic models with more parity and less western economic gluttony. The engine of unbridled capitalism with its unfair system of thought has reached the end of [the] road and is unable to move. The era of capitalist thinking and imposition of ones thoughts on the international community, intended to predominate the world in the name of globalization and the age of setting up empires is over. It is no longer possible to humiliate nations and impose double-standard policies on the world community.9 President Hugo Chavez typified the anti-American, anti-West policies and rhetoric fostered by many developing countries in his statements made in Caracas on September 18, 2009, I returned more convinced than ever that it is absolutely possible, and necessary, to bring down the political, economic, cultural and military hegemony that the Yankee empire wants to impose on the world.10 These views represent the difficulties,

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the obstacles, and the threat to establishing and maintaining the effective economic and political relationships so imperative for successful globalization. Effective integration of developing states into global economic and political institutions depends on identifying acceptable relative benefits. China adheres to an independent foreign policy of peace, adopts an opening up strategy of mutual benefit and win-win outcome. China is willing to develop friendly and cooperative relations with all countries. It will never seek hegemony. One or two countries or a group of big powers cannot solve the problems facing the world.11 Furthermore, the varying polities within the developing state must also perceive relative benefit. While the government of a developing state will likely be most interested in measuring the benefits through hard and quantifiable metrics such as increased GDP, revenue, and private sector profits, the dominant power broker must also focus on assessing benefit within the partner country through soft, atmospheric metrics such as public perception, diminished relative deprivation, increased economic participation, greater security, and increases or improvements in the social services provided.12 Policies and endeavors capable of achieving these soft objectives must look beyond the hard, profit-driven aims of economic hegemonies and establish real although seemingly abstract and self-defeatingobjectives directed toward helping the developing state to improve economic, political and social prospects. It is the theocratisation of the market place which is disturbing us. By glorifying globalisation we are glorifying greed, Swami Agnivesh, social activist and winner of Right to Livelihood Award, noted, A new god is emerging from the market forces and there is no place anymore for social and economic justice. He expanded this view, In the present form, globalisation is all about grabbing than sharing and caring.13 5

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The worlds economic and political power brokers must seek to share the benefits of globalization equitably. Failure to do so is to risk rising humanitarian crisis, increased regional and global conflict, and disjointed efforts to avoid catastrophic human atrocities and environmental ruin. Simply attempting to establish peripheral programs to partially mitigate weighty consequences in the aftermath of systemic neglect is politically, economically and financially inadvisable. Future efforts by western powers to integrate developing states will likely be met with skepticism and mistrust, especially if policies and proposals appear to be half-measures with disproportionate rewards. When they stop believing, as a few have, that U.S. power is a force for the general good, the cost of maintaining order increases, she states. It is not enough for us to appreciate we are a beneficent hegemon: we must do better to demonstrate it to others who are not convinced.14 Ill-conceived policies founded on misconceptions of altruism invoke the wrath of the masses and spell political ruin even though founded on the best intentions. Appeasement or deflection tactics designed to ignore or circumvent the core issues of the conflict or grievance, rarely achieve lasting or comprehensive objectives. The problems of the prevailing paradigm not only persist but typically escalate. Such has been the case for America and Great Britain in Iraq. American policy makers will never arrive at good policies to effectively resolve fundamental issues preventing the integration of a developing partner state without good, relevant intelligence. Such intelligence is necessary for American policy makers to correctly identify and adopt the partner states objectives. Intelligence must also correctly identify the obstacles preventing the developing state from achieving its objectives. Intelligence must project the possible courses of actions a partner state may adopt, and 6

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then work with policy makers to determine which course of action will be the most effective and easily supported to ensure the partners long-term success. Intelligence can also support the existing sovereign powers ability to solidify its political base by assisting with law-enforcement, force protection, humanitarian efforts, and infrastructure assessments for revitalization. Intelligence collects social, political, and atmospheric data to influence the development of local, national, and international political, economic, and social policies.15 Such intelligence efforts must not be designed to benefit the dominant partner. The United States cannot view its own immediate economic and political benefits as the primary objective. Although there may be benefits, the focus must be on ensuring the efforts are oriented towards the partners objectives to satisfy domestic economic, political, social and security aims. Success will be achieved by providing the people real and achievable prospects. This success enables the states governmental and social institutions to build confidence domestically and internationally, critical to establishing real sovereignty. Once achieved, the stable sovereign state can integrate internationally and participate in global economic and political institutions.

In a stable, self-actualized state, the population is able to participate politically, economically, and socially, although the form and function of such participation is likely to vary from culture to culture and state to state to be effective. Policies intended to assist a developing state must focus on validating the states will to participate domestically and internationally without attempting to unnecessarily alter the cultural or political nature of the state. International policy must seek to integrate and not assimilate. Self-actualization as a culturally-unique state is critical to effective support of pre-existing or emerging

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social institutions. "In democracy building, what are you trying to do? It's not like building an oil pipeline, it is educating people, it is creating an infrastructure that supports civil society, it is inculcating values of tolerance and debate, it is helping people learn how to write laws, it is helping people learn how to compromise,"16 intelligence support to the global policy process must provide accurate insights into cultural differences to foster the understanding and trust necessary to support policies which do not alienate divergent cultures and generate friction.17

Although an intelligence organizations overarching task is to collect, process, and analyze pertinent information which is synthesized into a variety of intelligence products for broad dissemination to decision makers, the current intelligence in Iraq and Afghanistan is predominantly focused on target acquisition and target destruction. Such intelligence is critical in a conventional fight, but in Stability and Support Operations (SASO), and in Counter Insurgency (COIN) operations, political and military leaders need more than targeting information.18 Tactical targeting information is of little value when working to reconstruct destroyed or neglected political, economic, social, or cultural infrastructures. Reconstruction efforts require intelligence products which identify infrastructure disruptions, public needs, project prioritization, and the obstacles or persistent security threats hindering reconstruction efforts. A good intelligence product which provides leaders such specific and contextual awareness enables them to specifically guide and effectively support the government ministers or subordinate commanders who develop policy and provide services within the country. Within this paradigm, the intelligence apparatus works to become eyes and ears to improve US

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economic and political support to the host nation, and to assist the host nations political leaders to improve their overall governance.19

Effective global leadership might prevent irreparable economic and political polarization by properly managing globalization. Effective leadership might ensure disadvantaged nations are intelligently developed and integrated into the global system. All intelligence organizations need to deliberately focus on becoming culturally and politically aware. Such intelligence is indispensible to future global leadership. It will provide government and military leaders with beyond-the-threat and beyond-the-battle recommendations to foster trust and build constructive partnerships. As the worlds current military, political, and economic leader, America is in a position demonstrate true leadership through establishing new political realities and objectives for globalization. However, political motivations driven by profit frenzy, cultural elitism, and threat-centric intelligence dissuade policy makers from providing this leadership. Intelligence professionals must broaden the scope and depth of their global inquiries to develop and provide the sound recommendations necessary for American policy makers to achieve true globalization.

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End Notes: 1. Henry, Ryan, and C. Edward Peartree. "Military Theory and Information Warfare." US Army War College Quarterly - Autumn 1998. http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usawc/parameters/98autumn/henry.htm (accessed October 11, 2009). 2. Kilcullen, David J.. "New Paradigms for 21st Century Conflict." America Engaging the World - America.gov. http://www.america.gov/st/peacesecenglish/2008/May/20080522172835SrenoD0.8730585.html (accessed October 22, 2009). 3. Nye, Joseph S.. Understanding International Conflicts: An Introduction To Theory And History 4th. London: Longman Pub Group, 2002. 4. Layne, Christopher, and Benjamin Schwarz. "Twilight of Pax Americana -latimes.com." Los Angeles Times - California, L.A., Entertainment and World news latimes.com. http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-schwarz292009sep29,0,4375015.story (accessed October 22, 2009). 5. al-Hakaymah, Muhammad Lhalil. The Myth of Delusion. London: al-Maqreze Center Site, 2001. 6. Ahmadinejad, Mahmoud. "Tehran Times : It's Impossible to Impose DoubleStandard Policies on the World." Tehran Times Daily NewsPaper. http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=203909 (accessed October 10, 2009). 7. The Mindanao Examiner. "Oil Price Rollback, Not enough." The Mindanao Examiner. http://www.mindanaoexaminer.com/news.php?news_id=20090923231058 (accessed October 11, 2009). 8. Isaak, Robert A.. The Globalization Gap: How the Rich Get Richer and the Poor Get Left Further Behind (Financial Times Prentice Hall Books). Albany: Ft Press, 2004. 9. Mazza, Jerry. "A tale of two speeches: Ahmadinejads and Netanyahus." Online Journal. http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_5192.shtml (accessed October 10, 2009). 10. Fras, Hugo Chvez. "Latin American Herald Tribune - Chvez Lines: The Multipolar World: The New World." Latin American Herald Tribune - Welcome. http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=343985&CategoryId=13303 (accessed October 11, 2009). 11. Zhe, Song. "Speech By H.E. Ambassador Song Zhe, Head of the Mission of the People's Republic of China to the European Union at the Leuven Center for Global Governance Studies, UCL." Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of 10

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China. http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjb/zwjg/zwbd/t619388.htm (accessed October 10, 2009). 12. Yudhoyono, Susilo Bambang. "Nine Pillars to Make the Next Century An Age of Connectivity, Not Conquest - The Jakarta Globe." Home - The Jakarta Globe. http://thejakartaglobe.com/opinion/nine-pillars-to-make-the-next-century-an-age-ofconnectivity-not-conquest/333740 (accessed October 10, 2009). 13. 1.f The Hindu. "Rajasthan News: Impact of Globalisation on Value System Debated." The Hindu: Front Page News: Monday, January 28, 2008. http://www.hindu.com/2008/01/28/stories/2008012854910800.htm (accessed October 10, 2009). 14. Schake, Kori N.. Managing American Hegemony: Essays on Power in a Time of Dominance. Palo Alto: Hoover Institution Press, 2008. 15. Al Iraqiyah Television. "Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Maliki Holds News Conference on Baghdad Security Plan." Open Source Center. https://www.opensource.gov/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_0_0_246_203_121123_ 43/content/Display/6171623? highlightQuery=eJzTiFbIL0gtSizJzM9TcPRzUSjJT08tyUgtUojVBPM1lDyLEguVFMI9 Qzw8%2FRSc%2FUP9QoIiNQH%2BsREM&fileSize=25808 (accessed October 16, 2009). 16. Tully, Andrew F.. "U.S.: Is Bush Abandoning Democracy Building In Iraq? Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2009." Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty - Free Media in Unfree Societies. http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1067485.html (accessed October 11, 2009). 17. Ransom, Harry Howe. Strategic Intelligence and Foreign Policy. Baltimore, Maryland: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1974. 18. Baker III, James A., Lee H. Hamilton, Lawrence S. Eagleburger, Vernon E. Jordan, Jr., Edwin Messe III, Sandra Day O'Connor, Leon E. Panetta, William J. Perry, Charles S. Robb, and Alan k. Simpson. The Iraq Study Group Report: The Way Forward - A New Approach [IRAQ STUDY GROUP REPORT]. Vintage Books, New York: Filibust, 2006. 19. Nov 2006 Quarterly Report to Congress. "Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq." United States Department of Defense. www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/Measuring_ Stability_and_Security_in_Iraq_March_2009.pdf (accessed October 11, 2009).

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