Outline Flood Modeling in Phrae City and Applications of Inundation Modeling

Description of Flood Inundation Modeling in Phrae City

Background Model Application Sensitivity to spatial resolutions and Inflow

Srikantha Herath United Nations University Tokyo

Flood Inundation Modeling Applications

Damage Assessment Forecasting

Yom River Basin, Thailand

A sub basin of Chao river Basin Average annual discharge: 3,864 cumec. Area = 19,516 Km2 (whole sub-basin) = 7,500 Km2 (upto Y1C)

Study Area
Phrae City:
Area: 9 km2 Population: 20,000 Major recent floods: 1995, 2001

Y20C Upstream gauging station

Typical River Cross Section

Inundation Information

Gathering Field Information

Rainfall

Flood loss reduction process

Warning Response Response Catchment People, Assets Disaster Floods Inundation Mapping/ modeling/forecasting Risk Assessment Relief, Recovery Damage Estimation

Rainfall monitoring/forecasting Flood Modeling -> Forecasting

Inundation Modeling: Location: Phrae city (Area: 18 sq.km)

DEM generated from 1:4,000 scale contour map

(contour interval: 50cm)

Contour interval: 50cm

DEM of 50m resolution for Phrae City area generated from digitized contours

Period of Simulation:
From Aug. 20 Sept. 18, 1995
Rainfall (in mm)

Hourly Rainfall at Y20 station

22 20 18 16

Input Rainfall

Physically based distributed hydrologic modeling

What happens to Water ? (Rainfall and water supply) Rainfall Transpiration Interception Evaporation
(Interception storage)

Input temporal datasets:

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205

Interflow

Human water use Supply Evaporation

Drainage (from soil)

Input river profile details

Rain
River Profile in the Study Area
155 Height from MSL (in m)

Time in hour (Starting from 01hr. of Aug. 30)

U/S River Boundary Condition

12 11 Water Level (in meter) 10 9 8 7 6 5
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000

Surface flow
Unconfined Aquifer

Infiltration

U/S boundary condition

Flow

153 151 149 147 145 143 141 139

bed avg

Confined Aquifer Distributed Hydrologic Model...

137 Distance from U/S (in m)

4
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205

Time in hour (Starting from 01hr. of Aug. 30)

Hourly Rainfall at Y20 Station

Analysis of Aug. 2001 Floods

Rainfall (in mm)

48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205 217 229

Simulated Results:
Maximum flood inundation with 50m resolution DEM

Time in hour (Starting from 01hr. of Aug. 11, 2001)

Verification:
Qualitative verification:
U/S River Boundary Condition
(for Aug. 2001 floods)

12 11 Water level (in meter) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3

1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205 217 229

based on the discussion with RID official field survey interview with local residence dyke and road effects

Existing highway

Animation
Time in hour (Starting from 01hr. of Aug. 11, 2001)

3D View

Risk Analysis to Residential and Non-residential Buildings

Spatial and temporal variation inundation

Total buildings: 4242
U / S R iv e r B o u n d a r y C o n d it io n
12 11 Water Level (in meter) 10 9 8 7 6 5 4
1 13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97 109 121 133 145 157 169 181 193 205

Number of buildings affected by floodwater of 0.25-0.5m= 397 Number of buildings affected by floodwater of 0.5-1m = 1162 Number of buildings affected by floodwater of 1-2m = 744 Number of buildings affected by floodwater of 2-3m = 189 Number of buildings affected by floodwater of 3-4m = 82 Number of buildings affected by floodwater of 4-5m = 29 Number of buildings affected by floodwater of 5m or above= 12

Total flood affected buildings: 2610

T im e in h o u r (S t a rt in g fr o m 0 1 h r . o f A u g . 3 0 )

Effect of upstream inflow

2 Stage Nested Scheme for flood forecasting

Inflow hydrograph at G1

River Inundation height (in cm)

26 - 50 51 - 100 101 - 150 151 - 200 201 - 300 301 - 400 401 - 500 > 500

G1

Forecast at G2

Stage 1

G2 Stage 2

Inundation with 90% Inundation with estimated estimated inflow inflow hydrograph hydrograph 10% difference in inflow hydrograph would make a significant difference in the inundated area.

Inundation prediction based on forecast at G2

Predict the river flows at downstream location (G2) without overland flow consideration Use upstream inflow (G1) and river system modeling if the lag time is sufficient for forecasting Use the inflow hydrograph at station G2 for downstream inundation modeling.

High intensity rainfalls Forecasts of G2 flows at different lead times with G1 boundary conditions Does G2 forecasts exceed river warning levels?

Possible Operational Use

Preliminary warning Inundation simulations based on G2 forecasts Formulation of mitigation strategies based on G2 forecasts

Application Phrae City

Phrae city is located along the Yom River. Catchment area at Y1c is 7624 sq. km. Y20 gauging station upstream is selected to provide upstream boundary conditions
Y.20 Gauging station

No

Inflow hydrograph at G1

Catchment area
between Y20 and Y.1C = 2,214 Sq. Km

Phrae City

G1

Forecast at G2

Stage 1

G2 Stage 2

Specific warnings, evacuation and other mitigation measures

The catchment and river network is derived from GTOPO30, 1 km global data set

Inundation prediction based on forecast at G2

Update

Two stage set up

200 190 180

Y.20 Gauging station Y.1C Gauging and Rainfall Station

Y20 Stage 1
Catchment area

Flood Forecasting Example

Phrae City

Yom River Basin, Thailand

E leva tion

170 160 150

Stage 2
Bed Level RHS E lev

between Y20 and Y.1C = 2,214 Sq. Km

1500 Discharge (cumec)

Flood Forecasting in Phrae City (Aug 5 - Aug10, 95)

140 130

1000

10

19

28

37

46

55

64

73

82

91

100

109

118

127

136

145

154

River Dist a n ce fr om Y20 in 500 m u n it

0 1 25 49 73 97 121 145 169 193

From the river cross sections at 500 m interval.

163

500

Simulated 2h Forecast 4h Forecast 6h Forecast 8h Forecast 10h Forecast 12h Forecast Y.1C Discharge Time (Hours)