Outline: 1. Probability 2. Sampling 3. Probability Distributions 4. Sampling Distributions 5. Estimation Probability no. of desired outcomes divided by total no.

. of trials a. As fraction or ratio b. Decimal c. Percent Types: 1. Objective Probability actual data 2. Subjective Probability opinions based from experiences Rules: 1. Definition of Probability P(A)=a/a+b Example 1: Survey = 40 people (using Contingency Table) Gender P (Male) = 10/40 Hx of Chicken Pox P (Chicken Pox) = 35/40 2. Complimentary Rule/Events P(B) = P(A) P(B) = 1 P(B) Example from Example 1: P(who are not male) = P(females) = 30/40 = 0.75 or 75% Example 2: P(did not get malaria, dengue or filiariasis) = P(did not get mosquito borne disease) = P(none) = 80/100 3. Union of Events: Addition rule A. For Mutually Exclusive Event (do not intersect or overlap) P(A U B) P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) B. Non-Mutually Exclusive Event (intersect or overlap) P(A U B) P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B) 4. Intersection of Events: Multiplication Rule A. For Independent Events

P(A^B) P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B) Aka Joint Probabilities = multiply marginal probabilities Example: P(malaria and dengue) = P(malaria) * P(dengue) = 7/100 * 8/100 B. For Dependent Events P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B/A) 5. Bayes Theorem: Conditional probability P(A/B) = [ P(B/A) * P(A) ] / P(B) Probability: Conditional = Likelihood P(Female/Chicken Pox) What is the likelihood that the patient is female among those who got chicken pox? P(Female/Chicken pox) = [ P(B/A) * P(A) ] / P(B) = [ (27/30) * (30/40) ] / (35/40) Terms: Probability = Chances Likelihood = Bayes Theorem (Conditional) Odds = probability when even occurs divided to probability when event does not occur Sampling A. Probability Sampling 1. Simple Random Sampling - Give sampling frame (List of Clients) - Random Subsample 2. Stratified Random Sampling - List of clients - People are divided into Strata/Layers - Random Subsamples of n/N 3. Cluster Sampling - Divide population into clusters (usually along geographic boundaries) - Randomly sample clusters - Measure all units within sampled clusters 4. Systematic Sampling - Number the units in the population from 1 to N - Decide on the n (sample size) that you want or need - K=N/n = the interval size

Randomly select an integer between 1 to k Then take every Kth unit

Methods of Non-random Sampling 1. Convenience (Volunteer) Sampling 2. Snowball Sampling 3. Purposive Sampling Types of Purposive Sampling 1. Maximum Variation Sampling 2. Homogenous Sampling 3. Extreme (deviant) case sampling 4. Intensity sampling 5. Typical case sampling 6. Critical case sampling 7. Criterion Sampling 8. Theory based Sampling 9. Quota Sampling 10.Sampling confirming/disconfirming cases Terminology 1. Random Sampling selection to be part of study 2. Random Assignment assign to a controlled group randomly Terms 1. Target Population 2. Sampling Population 3. Sample Representative = distribution of charac. Same as to population Eligibility Criteria Inclusion/Exclusion Criteria Considerations that Affect Sample Size in Quantitative Studies 1. Homogenity of the population 2. Effect size (strength of relationships) 3. Attrition (loss of subjects) 4. Interest in subgroup analyses 5. Sensitivity of the measures B. Non Probability Sampling Probability Distribution I. Uniform Distribution - All have same value II. Discrete Probability Distribution

When variable is discrete Examples: binomial probability distribution, multinomial probability distribution III. Continuous Distribution - Normal probability distribution - Chi-square distribution - Students t distribution - F distribution Sampling Distribution A. Central Limit Theorem - Mean of a sufficiently large no. of independent random variables, each w/ finite mean and variance will be normally distributed - T distribution Inferences Estimation estimate parameters Point Estimate Confidence Interval Hypothesis testing