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Reliance Industries
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Net operating income EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) 36.7 4.8 (3.8) 15.8 1QFY12 81,018 9,926 12.3 5,661 % chg (qoq) (3.0) (0.8) 0.3 0.7
`867 `1,060
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Oil & Gas 283,810 1.1 1187/714 752817 10 17,083 5,132 RELI.BO RIL@IN
For 2QFY2012, Reliance Industries (RIL) reported 36.7% yoy growth in its bottom line due to strong growth in earnings from refining and petrochemical margins. PAT growth was restricted to 15.8% yoy because of the dip in production from the KG-D6 field. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock. Robust 2QFY2012 performance: RILs net sales grew by 36.7% yoy to `78,569cr in 2QFY2012, slightly below our estimate of `81,603cr. Net sales growth was mainly driven by growth in the petrochemicals segment (up 39.5% yoy to `21,066cr) and the refining segment (up 37.1% yoy to `68,096cr). During 2QFY2012, production from KG-D6 stood at 2.7mn bbl (down 42.1% yoy) of crude oil and 303.4bcf (down 20.3% yoy) of natural gas. RILs gross refining margin (GRM) stood at US$10.1/bbl in 2QFY2012 (compared to US$7.9/bbl in 2QFY2011). The company managed to earn a spread of US$1.0/bbl over Singapore complex refining margin during the quarter. Other income increased by 64.0% yoy to `1,102cr. Consequently, PAT grew by 15.8% yoy to `5,703cr, slightly below our expectation. RIL informed that it would stop all E&P activities for the next two months and it, along with BP, will jointly re-visit its entire E&P portfolio. Outlook and valuation: RILs extant businesses (refining and petrochemicals) continued to perform well during the quarter. However, there are some concerns on the KG basin gas output. Nevertheless, we believe RILs deal with BP is a positive one, as the combined expertise of both the parties will result in optimization of producing blocks and enhancement of resources in exploratory blocks. Thus, the ramp-up in producing fields would improve investor confidence. We maintain our Buy view on RIL with an SOTP-based target price of `1,060. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EPS (`) EBITDA margin (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/BV (x) EV/ Sales (x) EV/ EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 44.7 11.1 17.3 26.9
3m
1yr
3yr
48.8 7.0
FY2010 203,740 34.7 18,572 29.8 56.7 15.2 15.3 14.1 9.4 1.8 1.5 9.9
FY2011 265,811 30.5 18,976 2.2 58.0 14.7 15.0 12.8 10.6 1.7 1.1 7.6
FY2012E 316,591 19.1 23,063 21.5 70.5 12.9 12.3 14.0 11.6 1.5 0.9 6.6
FY2013E 328,147 3.7 25,602 11.0 78.2 13.5 11.1 13.8 12.2 1.3 0.8 5.9
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357800 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
2QFY2012 2QFY2011 % chg (yoy) 1QFY2012 % chg (qoq) 78,569 64,661 68,725 9,844 12.5 1,102 2,969 660 7,317 9.3 1,614 22.1 5,703 5,703 7.3 57,479 43,572 48,083 9,396 16.3 672 3,377 542 6,149 10.7 1,226 19.9 4,923 4,923 8.6 15.8 5,661 7.0 0.7 15.8 31.6 19.0 7,264 9.0 1,603 22.1 5,661 0.7 0.7 0.7 64.0 (12.1) 21.8 36.7 48.4 42.9 4.8 81,018 64,443 71,092 9,926 12.3 1,078 3,195 545 2.2 (7.1) 21.1 (3.0) 0.3 (3.3) (0.8)
2QFY2012 2QFY2011 % chg (yoy) 1QFY2012 % chg (qoq) 21,066 68,096 3,563 510 93,235 15,096 49,672 4,303 155 69,226 39.5 37.1 (17.2) 229.0 34.7 18,366 73,689 3,894 235 96,184 14.7 (7.6) (8.5) 117.0 (3.1)
Estimates
81,603 10,037 12.3 7,322 5,857
Actual
78,569 9,844 12.5 7,317 5,703
Variation (%)
(3.7) (1.9) (0.2) (0.1) (2.6)
(` cr)
60.0 39.1 22.7 5.2 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12
Operating revenues Operating revenues growth (RHS)
36.7
40.0 20.0 -
26.2
Operating performance affected by lower profit from the oil and gas segment
During the quarter, RILs GRM stood at US$10.1/bbl in 2QFY2012 (compared to US$7.9/bbl in 2QFY2011 and US$10.3/bbl in 1QFY2012). Singapore complex refining margin averaged US$9.1/bbl during 2QFY2012 from US$8.5/bbl in 1QFY2012. Thus, RIL managed to earn a spread of US$1.0/bbl. The companys EBITDA for the quarter increased by 4.8% yoy to `9,844cr, mainly on account of increased profit from the refining and petrochemicals segments, partially offset by the decline in the oil and gas segment. The refining segments EBIT grew by 40.3% yoy to `3,075cr and the petrochemical segments EBIT grew by 10.2% yoy to `2,422cr. The oil and gas segments EBIT, on the other hand, declined by 10.3% yoy to `1,531cr during the quarter.
(%)
80.0
(` cr)
40% 20% 0%
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
Petrochemicals
Refining
Others
(` cr)
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12
PAT PAT growth (RHS)
32.3 19.1
27.8
(%)
(%)
Segment-wise performance
Refining: During the quarter, crude processing stood at 17.1mn tonnes (compared to 16.9mn tonnes in 2QFY2011), with refinery reporting capacity utilization of 110%. Despite modest rise in crude throughput, higher petroleum product prices led to a 37.1% yoy increase in the refining segments revenue to `68,096cr. On the margin front, RIL reported GRM of US$10.1/bbl (US$7.9/bbl in 2QFY2011). Singapore margin during the quarter averaged US$9.1/bbl. Thus, RIL managed to earn a spread of US$1.0/bbl over the same.
(US $/bbl)
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
RIL GRMs
Singapore GRMs
1QFY12
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
Capacity Utilisation
Petrochemicals: The petrochemicals segments revenue grew by 39.5% yoy to `21,066cr due to higher prices and sales volumes. The segments EBIT margin declined by 306bp yoy to 11.5% due to base effect of higher revenue reported during 2QFY2011.
2QFY12
(mn tonnes)
(%)
2QFY12
Oil and gas: The oil and gas segments revenue decreased by 17.2% yoy to `3,563cr due to lower production from KG-D6 block; however, this was partially offset by the increase in crude oil realization. Production from KG-D6 stood at 2.7mn bbl (down 42.1% yoy) of crude oil and 303.4bcf (down 20.3% yoy) of natural gas. Consequently, the segments EBIT decreased by 10.3% yoy to `1,531cr during the quarter.
Investment arguments
Ramp-up in KG-D6 could allay many concerns: RIL is producing natural gas much below its potential 80mmscmd due to constraints over reservoir pressure. Management has also not given any guidance on production ramp-up due to its ongoing discussions with Directorate General of Hydrocarbons; thus, due to pending clarity, an overhang will continue on the stock. However, we believe RIL will ramp up its production with the help of BPs deepwater technology and expertise in the medium term. The upstream segment still has a significant upside in store, considering the huge untapped resources. Newer ventures could be long-term catalysts: RIL has been actively eyeing inorganic routes for diversifying its asset portfolio by entering into new ventures. Significant cash pile and treasury stocks could see RIL venturing into more inorganic routes for growth and prove to be upside triggers for the stock. Out of all the companys recent initiatives, we find the shale gas venture the most promising on account of the in-place reserves of ~12TCF.
`/share
478 103 168 45 54 60 35 60 30 15 36 1,083
(23) 1,060
Bloomberg consensus
70.0 77.0
Variation (%)
0.7 1.6
70.5 78.5
867 1,060
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-07
Apr-06
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11 Jul-11
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Share price
Source: Company, Angel Research
7x
10x
13x
16x
19x
(%)
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Prem/Disc to Sensex
Source: Company, Angel Research
Oct-11
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Oct-11
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
137,147 151,224 203,740 265,811 316,591 328,147 20.5 10.3 34.7 30.5 19.1 3.7 114,002 127,802 172,846 226,850 275,621 283,975 89,912 105,224 147,065 197,392 239,830 247,099 9,851 2,738 11,501 23,145 15.0 16.9 5,004 18,140 19.1 13.2 1,087 1,223 5.3 18,277 24.8 4,734 23,011 3,488 17.9 19,523 (1.9) 19,521 14,788 22.5 10.8 45.2 45.2 22.5 7,202 3,018 12,358 23,422 1.2 15.5 5,651 17,771 (2.0) 11.8 1,816 1,914 10.7 17,869 (2.2) 17,869 2,919 19.5 14,950 18.4 14,969 14,969 1.2 9.9 45.7 45.7 1.2 7,538 2,791 15,452 30,894 31.9 15.2 10,946 19,948 12.2 9.8 2,060 2,185 7.6 20,074 12.3 8,606 28,680 4,256 17.4 24,424 79.6 24,503 15,897 6.2 7.8 48.6 48.6 6.2 7,032 3,324 19,102 38,961 26.1 14.7 14,121 24,840 24.5 9.3 2,411 2,543 10.2 24,972 24.4 24,972 4,783 23.7 20,189 22.0 20,211 20,211 27.1 7.6 61.8 61.8 27.1 8,544 4,039 23,209 40,969 5.2 12.9 11,967 29,002 16.8 9.2 2,150 3,450 11.4 30,302 21.3 30,302 7,272 24.0 23,029 34.0 23,063 23,063 21.5 7.3 70.5 70.5 21.5 8,803 4,161 23,912 44,172 7.8 13.5 12,542 31,630 9.1 9.6 1,792 3,795 11.3 33,633 11.0 33,633 8,072 24.0 25,561 41.0 25,602 25,602 11.0 7.8 78.2 78.2 11.0
10
(5,939) (13,501)
(1,938) (22,570)
1,511 (18,759)
20,701 (21,606)
(4,954) (14,907) 24,817 (22,436) 18,268 4,474 22,742 (8,851) 22,742 13,891
11
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Int. Coverage (EBIT/Int.)
0.4 1.6 16.7 0.4 2.0 9.8 0.3 1.2 9.7 0.2 0.8 10.3 0.0 0.0 13.5 (0.1) (0.3) 17.7 1.3 42.0 13.2 66.6 41.4 1.1 47.4 13.2 84.5 20.9 1.1 48.8 13.4 78.8 8.7 1.1 48.6 14.4 70.3 15.9 1.3 46.5 14.3 70.1 12.2 1.2 49.6 15.2 74.4 11.6 13.9 20.8 20.1 10.0 17.4 13.6 9.4 13.5 14.1 10.6 13.2 12.8 11.6 15.1 14.0 12.2 15.9 13.8 49.4 49.4 71.1 5.5 301 43.7 43.7 66.9 6.4 407 56.7 56.7 99.0 7.0 475 58.0 58.0 111.0 8.5 517 70.5 70.5 117.5 9.0 585 78.2 78.2 128.0 10.0 661 17.5 12.2 2.9 0.6 2.1 12.3 1.9 19.8 12.9 2.1 0.7 2.0 12.6 1.4 15.3 8.8 1.8 0.8 1.5 9.9 1.4 15.0 7.8 1.7 1.0 1.1 7.6 1.2 12.3 7.4 1.5 1.0 0.9 6.6 1.1 11.1 6.8 1.3 1.2 0.8 5.9 1.0 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
12
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
RIL No No Yes No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
13