Oct 16th Oct 22th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 24

Elite Global Trading

Forex Weekly Commentary

Fundamental Outlook

In this issue: Fundamental Outlook AUDUSD EURAUD 1

EURCAD EURUSD Event Risk

Contact Info Disclaimer

The Markets rebound off of lows with authority over the past week. The recovery brings a very important question to mind, will this bull move continue or will a sell off back to lows be on the docket of interest. The move up to current levels will need supporting economic evidence to for further gains to continue for the medium term. Europe has not yet solved any problems that they have and the US does not have supporting data for a real economic turn around yet. We may see some short term strength continue but we look for supporting data to stand on for the bull run to continue and it is just not there yet. For intra week moves we see a move to support levels to be on tap in the week ahead before any major continued gains. Most major markets have reached very important resistance levels that will need strong conviction to break and stay above. The current moves in the markets are favored to the upside but being cautious where you are positioning is important in a move of this magnatude, it's not practical to be late to a party that maybe already reaching its short term limits. On the docket this week to keep a close eye on will be the RBA Meeting Min and BOE Meeting Min.

Oct 16th Oct 22th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 24

Elite Global Trading

Australian Dollar / United States Dollar

AUDUSD: Moves to monthly highs this week at 1.0345, the move from the lows of .9388 is still in progress and has not yet shown signs of being tired yet. Now one would expect when a move of this magnitude happens in this short of time we would see a percentage correction prior to the next move higher. It is always difficult to call a correction in martkets that are producing extended moves beyond all expectations. The only thing you can do is respect the current environment. Looking ahead for this pair, an important trendline from the highs of 1.1000 connecting to 1.0765 is on tap now as we write trading around 1.0350. If this line holds as immediate resistance we will likely see a recovery move to support that sits at, 1.0238, 1.0145, 1.0117, and 1.0076. Outlook: Neutral outlook, start the week off we expect a wave down to support levels prior to continuation of this move off the lows. expected areas to be reached are 1.0100 and 1.0030, possible .9980. a break below .9860 gives a more bearish outlook towards the previous lows near .9400. In the meantime above this point we will look for long opportunities on the dips, with the daily still very bullish. Intraday moves to support can be expected. When looking for new highs to be reached we look at 1.0400, 1.0490, and 1.0536.

UK Pound Sterling / United States Dollar

GBPUSD: Even with talks about continued QE from the BOE the pound gains against the dollar. In the week ahead we have the BOE meeting min which will bring to light further QE programs that have been talked about. One would gather from further QE action from the BOE the pound would be weaker then it currently is. With current structure in of this upward channel the pair eyes resistance at 1.5950 before any major decline. The BOE minutes will be release Wednesday Morning. This could end up shifting this pair depending on what traders decide to do after further information about their future plans of easing are. Outlook: Neutral, current move up off the lows of 1.5270 have been very strong and further gains are expected. 1.5950 is a very critical area of resistance that will most likely become a short term top for now. We look for this to be hit early in the week. If a pullback happens before this target look for a long plays to this target. Support sits at 1.5759, 1.5715, 1.5665, 1.5630. A breal below 1.5630 would hint towards a move lower towards the lows of the month near 1.5400 area. If this bullish move continues with the steam it currently has the 1.6000 handle is not far away and above that is 1.6103 retracement zone that is very possible in the weeks to come. If the BOE does not expand the QE program more then is already expected we may see this move up continue, any expansion of the program will likely weaken the single currency and will most likely reverse this pair back down to lows.

Oct 16th Oct 22th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 24

Elite Global Trading

Euro / United States Dollar

EURUSD: As the EU pulls together to solve current problems the pair has gained over 700+ pips in two weeks from the lows of the month at 1.3145. Current market moves have been driven from the crucial decisions of Euro zone to pull together in this time of crisis for them. The G20 meets this weekend and the hot topic will be for sure the Euro Zone and the possibility of it spreading across the world. With continued promising solutions we may see a move up to 1.4050 before this move up is all said and done. What will be interesting is once the plans are in place for potential solutions, will they live up to the expectations and be lasting for a recovery to sustain. Currently the environment that the EU is building off of is very unstable and has many cracks that may not be repairable, if this is the case we may see things collapse in the months to come and will likely see the EURUSD unravel to the low 1.2000s. Outlook: Neutral, Current move is bullish from lows of 1.3145, levels to watch for on the upside, 1.3940, 1.4013, 1.4050, and 1.4130. To start the week off we will likely see some sort of recovery to downside prior to the next major move to upside. Levels to watch for on the downside are, 1.3789, 1.3729, 1.3681, 1.3611. With current strength continuing, a move to 1.4030 area is very likely before this move is over on the upside. After pullback, bullish moves are favored at this point. Below 1.3548 we favor moves to the lows of the month near 1.3200 area.

Oct 16th Oct 22th 2011

Volume 1, Issue 24

Elite Global Trading

Weeks Event Risk

Monday: USD: Empire State Manufacturing Index 8:30am USD: Capacity Utilization Rate 9:15am USD: Industrial Production 9:15am AUD: Monetary Policy Meeting Min 8:30pm CNY: GDP 10pm GBP: Public Sector Net Borrowing 4:30am CAD: Core CPI 7am

Tuesday: GBP: CPI 4:30am EUR: German ZEW Economic Sentiment 5am USD: PPI 8:30am USD: TIC Long-Term Purchases 9am USD: Fed Chair Bernanke Speaks

Wednesday: EUR: Current Account 4am GBP: MPC Meeting Minutes 4:30am USD: Building Permits 8:30am USD: Core CPI 8:30am USD: Beige Book 2pm

Thursday: GBP: Retail Sales 4:30am USD: Unemployment Claims 8:30am USD: Existing Home Sales 10am USD: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 10am

Friday: EUR: ECB President Trichet Speaks 3:40am EUR: German Ifo Business Climate 4am

Elite Global Trading

News letter Authors: Anthony Rousseau

arousseau@eliteglobaltrader.com

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